Category: dailyquotes

Gold finishes higher – a day worth noting

LATE REPORT

Gold finished the day higher – up $6 at $1331. Gold doesn’t always do well when the stock market tumbles, but it did well today, and the fact that it did will not have escaped the notice of a good many market analysts. Today’s upside also broke precedent with another oft-repeated, but false premise – that gold responds negatively to rising interest rates. As such, though nothing to write home about in terms of dollar gains, it was a day worth noting for precious metals bulls. Silver also finished in positive territory – up 6¢ at $16.75.

Quote of the Day
“We have found that gold typically thrives amid deeper, longer-lasting and fundamentally driven bear markets, which are usually associated with a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook. Alternatively, gold’s performance is usually tepid when equities rise. A good analogy is home insurance: homeowners pay an insurance premium each year hoping the house doesn’t burn down, but if it does you redeem the policy. Here, we see gold’s “insurance characteristics” as becoming increasingly relevant for investors. But even if the insurance is not needed, gold could still offer value. If the US dollar slides (which we expect), emerging economies become wealthier while mining costs increase. Prices could therefore advance irrespective of US inflation, making gold more than just an insurance asset.” – Wayne Gordon, UBS Wealth Management


How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands, before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but valuable guidelines to help you choose the right gold and silver company.

It might be the most important decision you will make on the road to becoming a gold and silver owner.

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.
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Gold up modestly as markets reconcile opposing viewpoints

EARLY REPORT

Gold is up modestly at $1328 (+$3) in early trading as markets attempt to reconcile a trio of concerns – a massive issue of U.S. government debt this week, rising oil and commodity prices and background trade and geopolitical tensions between the United States and a host of foreign countries. Some see the glass as half full, other see it as half empty on all three issues, a situation that translates to see-saw markets that objectively cannot seem to find their footing.  Silver is also up a bit at $16.71 (+5¢).  Even the dollar cannot seem to make up its mind – a very good day yesterday has given way to a not so good day today.

Chart of the Day

Chart note: Oil hit a three-year high today – continuing its recent triek higher on Mideast concerns, specifically the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran taking place in Yemen. In at least a generalized sense oil and gold have been traveling companions since 2000, though not in lock-step. Gold, too, has held up better than oil in the down times – oil being the more volatile of the two. Oil prices are important in the context of inflation because so much of what is produced or manufactured in the United States has an oil component in the pricing equation.

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LATE REPORT

Not much has changed since the EARLY REPORT was filed earlier today.  Please scroll down the page if you missed it. Have a good evening. . . . .

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Gold pushes lower as Japanese yen weakens and the 10-year Treasury pushes 3%

EARLY REPORT

Gold is pushing lower this morning as the 10-year Treasury neared the 3% yield level, commodities dipped lower, and Japan announced policies likely to weaken the yen (and strengthen the dollar). Gold is trading at $1325 early-on and down $11 on the day.  Silver is also lower, down 34¢ at $16.78. The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the Japanese yen in overnight trading on comments from central bank head, Haruhiko Kuroda, that Japan will continue a “strong accommodative monetary policy for some time.”

As for the bond market, all eyes will be on the Fed note and bill auctions this week as the Treasury Department looks to place a huge $96 billion in two-, five-, and seven-year notes.  A weak response could push the 10-year yield over the 3% barrier and unleash animal spirits in financial markets. TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg told Bloomberg: “There’s a lot of supply coming, which is probably the understatement of the century.”  [Emphasis added] The size of this week’s auctions are a reminder that the rapid growth in the U.S. national debt remains a clear and present danger unlikely to go away anytime soon. The U.S. has added $1.275 trillion to the national debt over the past 12 months.

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  This chart on the gold price in Japanese yen tells an interesting tale.  Japan, we all know, has been caught up in a decades long disinflation, and some would say, a disinflation verging on deflation.  Over the past two years though, the price of gold has been on the rise in Japan.  In fact, it is up 14.5%.  And so you know that this is not some out-of-the-box oddity, since 2005, gold is up 329% in Japanese yen – all during a period when the inflation rate bounced around the 0% level.  We have commented on numerous occasions that gold is more than simply an inflation hedge.  It is a hedge against disinflation, even deflation, as investors hedge systemic financial risks, currency risks as well as political and geopolitical risks.  This chart offers further proof of the assertion.

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Gold closes lackluster day and week, an unexpected spike in yield on the 10-year Treasury

LATE REPORT

Gold pretty much ended the day where it started trading at the $1336 level and down about $9 on the day – a lackluster finish for the day and the week. Silver also weakened today finishing at $17.14 and down 10¢ on the day. Not receiving much attention today was the sudden spike in yields on U.S. Treasury paper. Yield on the 10-year note hit 2.943% indicating heavy selling. In the absence of any economic news of consequence, today’s performance is likely to renew speculation that China could be unloading U.S. debt as part of its response to U.S. tariffs.

Today’s unexpected spike in rates probably contributed to gold’s downside and the 200 point drop in the DJIA.  In gold’s case the negative effect is likely to remain short term.  As posted in Tuesday’s EARLY REPORT, gold has tracked steadily higher since the Fed began raising interest rates in late 2015.  It is up about 15% over the last 24 months.

Chart courtesy of MacroTrends.com

Quote of the Day
“Sir Isaac Newton was asked by the British Treasury officials and financiers of his day why the monetary pound had to be a fixed quantity of precious metal. Why, indeed, must it consist of precious metal, or have any objective reality? Since paper currency was already accepted, why could not notes be issued without ever being redeemed? The reason they put the question supplies the answer; the government was heavily in debt, and they hoped to find a safe way of being dishonest. But Newton was asked as a mathematician, not a moralist. He replied: ‘Gentlemen, in applied mathematics, you must describe your unit.’ Paper currency cannot be described mathematically as money.” – The God of the Machine, Isabel Paterson (1943)

Recent Better Business Review

(March 29, 2018) – My experiences with USAGOLD have all been positive, informative, enjoyable and profitable. Their book on the basics of gold is literally a treasure. It sets your feet on the right path and on solid ground. USAGOLD has fulfilled every promise in a timely way and always with wonderful courtesy. I highly recommend this company in all respects. – Hugh D.

(March 31, 2018) – We were first time gold investors. In search for information we came across their web site, which is excellent. When we contacted them, Jonathan Kosares lead us through the process. He provided information, suggested gold coins, but did not direct how we invested. He is always available to answer questions. The service has been excellent. Their business practices have been outstanding. We have absolute faith the company. They are the best investment company we have ever dealt with. – John G.

Scorecard: 45 five star reviews. ( 7 last 30 days) Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD serving gold and silver investors since 1973

1-800-869-5115 Ext#100

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Gold tracking lower as we close out lackluster week

EARLY REPORT

Gold is tracking lower again today in a continuation of yesterday’s trend – down almost $8 today at the $1336.50 level. Silver is down 10¢ at $17.15. Precious metals trading has been lackluster all week as investors await direction on a laundry list of economic and political issues. Gold, though, is not the only market in a holding pattern. Stocks and the dollar have also spent the week more or less tracking sideways. In some respects no news is always good news. On the other hand, quiet times in markets almost always illicit an unsettled feeling that something might be lurking in the shadows waiting to pounce.

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of MacroTrends.com

Chart note: Commodities have been the bright spot in the investment arena this year – up almost 22% as measured by the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index shown in blue in the chart above. Gold, at times, has led the index over the past two years, even out-performed it in a couple of instances. Over the past year commodities have played catch-up. Perhaps it is time for gold to jump out and take the lead again. . . . . . .

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Sideways trading today, top analysts worry about inflation, stagflation

LATE REPORT

Gold finished the day pretty much where it started at $1345.50 and down $5 on the day. Silver managed to keep its head above water finishing up 5¢ on the day at $17.27.

Two noteworthy bits of analysis came public today – one from San Francisco’s Weeden & Co. and the other from Deutschebank’s chief international economist. Weeden’s Michael Purves says that the tariff and sanctions “dust-ups” along with tight oil supplies are not only pushed commodities higher, they could send “Treasuries and equities on the run.” Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Slok took inflation concerns to a another level today by calling it “the mother of all risks.” Those comments came on a day when 10-year Treasury yields pushed toward the 3% mark.

“This is a key risk,” Purves said. “Higher rates and inflation without higher economic growth raises the discount rate for equity cash flows (lower P/E) but also raises stagflation risks for the economy and the stock market.” [Emphasis added.]

Recent Better Business Review

(March 29, 2018) – My experiences with USAGOLD have all been positive, informative, enjoyable and profitable. Their book on the basics of gold is literally a treasure. It sets your feet on the right path and on solid ground. USAGOLD has fulfilled every promise in a timely way and always with wonderful courtesy. I highly recommend this company in all respects. – Hugh D.

(March 31, 2018) – We were first time gold investors. In search for information we came across their web site, which is excellent. When we contacted them, Jonathan Kosares lead us through the process. He provided information, suggested gold coins, but did not direct how we invested. He is always available to answer questions. The service has been excellent. Their business practices have been outstanding. We have absolute faith the company. They are the best investment company we have ever dealt with. – John G.

Scorecard: 45 five star reviews. ( 7 last 30 days) Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD serving gold and silver investors since 1973

1-800-869-5115 Ext#100

last posted 4-9-2018

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Gold bucking market cross currents today

EARLY REPORT

Gold is bucking some market cross currents this morning at $1345 and down about $6. Silver though is trading on the upside at $17.26 (+6¢). The most damaging of those crosscurrent comes in the form of yield on the 10-year Treasury note approaching the psychologically important 3% mark. ‘We have easing of geopolitical tensions in the world, we have higher commodity prices, we’re in the ninth year of an economic expansion, and the Fed looks like it will raise rates in June,’ said Gary Pollack, head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management.” Though, the items Pollack lists add up to a positive for gold, they also provide fuel for gold traders who see Fed interest rate policy as the prime mover in the gold market these days. The market, as a result, is tracking to the downside.

Chart of the Day

Chart notes: Often forgotten, or in some quarters deliberately ignored, gold performed extraordinarily well in the disinflationary aftermath of the 2007-2008 financial crisis appreciating from $650 per ounce in January, 2007 to over $1800 in August, 2011. The consumer price index, on the other hand, was bumping along either side of zero and had the potential to evolve to a full deflationary spiral. Inflation, in short, was not an issue. Though gold is generally considered an historically-proven inflation hedge, it is also an historically-proven disinflation hedge as the post 2007-2008 example demonstrates. Investors from 2007 on were interested in gold for its safe-haven characteristics and as a refuge from a potential full-out financial system breakdown. One of the great advantages of being a gold owner is that it is an investment for all seasons protecting its owners against inflation, disinflation, deflation or hyperinflation.
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Gold’s early advance slowed, silver the big story on the day

LATE REPORT

After getting off to strong start, gold slowed its advance as the day progressed but still finished up almost $4 at $1351. The big story of the day though for the precious metals was silver. It finished up 41¢ at $17.22 moving in concert with the two other commodity-based precious metals – platinum and palladium. Traders are concerned that the next round of sanctions against Russia could include top palladium and platinum producer, Norilisk and other mining companies. Russia is the world’s top producer of palladium, the second largest producer of platinum and the fourth largest producer of silver. Platinum was up $6 on the day and palladium was up almost $25.

On another front, Citigroup economist Willem Buiter issued a rather blunt warning today that tariffs from the U.S. and China, would amount to “a serious trade war” and “the biggest self-inflicted wound [on the world economy] since the great financial crisis.” Simultaneously, details from the Fed’s Beige Book on the economy revealed growing concern among U.S. manufacturers about rising import prices based on those tariffs including proactive purchases of materials to avoid higher costs down the road. Sounds like the 1970s. . . . .

Quote of the Day
“Markets are still in a precarious position and volatility is high. Regardless of which direction markets go from here, we cannot escape the risks hidden linkages pose to modern capital markets. We’ve already had a correction this year. But the next correction could turn into a 30% or 40% crash. The conditions are in place. But you can’t wait for the shock to occur because by then it will be too late. You won’t be able to get your money out of the market in time because it’ll be a mad rush to the exits. I recommend you reduce your exposure to the stock market and move into cash, gold, Treasuries, land and fine art.” – James Rickards


Recent Better Business Review

(March 29, 2018) – My experiences with USAGOLD have all been positive, informative, enjoyable and profitable. Their book on the basics of gold is literally a treasure. It sets your feet on the right path and on solid ground. USAGOLD has fulfilled every promise in a timely way and always with wonderful courtesy. I highly recommend this company in all respects. – Hugh D.

(March 31, 2018) – We were first time gold investors. In search for information we came across their web site, which is excellent. When we contacted them, Jonathan Kosares lead us through the process. He provided information, suggested gold coins, but did not direct how we invested. He is always available to answer questions. The service has been excellent. Their business practices have been outstanding. We have absolute faith the company. They are the best investment company we have ever dealt with. – John G.

Scorecard: 45 five star reviews. ( 7 last 30 days) Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD serving gold and silver investors since 1973

1-800-869-5115 Ext#100

last posted 4-9-2018

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Gold making another strong push toward the $1360 barrier

EARLY REPORT

Gold is making another strong push toward the $1360 barrier this morning trading at $1353 and up $6.50 on the day. Similarly, silver is displaying strength – up 31¢ and over the $17 barrier at $17.09. Gold has made a number of attempts to break through the $1360 mark and it will be interesting to see whether or not this push will be the one that carries it through. Gold and silver’s upside appears to be part of a larger move in the commodities complex this morning led by oil – up over a $1 at $72.70 as this written. Some experts believe oil could push through the $100 per barrel level over the next several months the result of a supply-cutting deal among OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia.

Chart of the Day

Chart note 1: With the US dollar the centerpiece of interest the past few weeks, we thought it appropriate to post the long-term overlay chart of the gold price and the major-currency version of the US Dollar index. As you can see, the dollar has been in a secular, long-term decline against other major currencies since the early 1970s when the U.S. abandoned gold-backing for the currency and the world switched to free-floating gold and currency prices. Despite all the talk of a strong dollar and how Treasury secretaries historically back the concept, the reality is the opposite – a weak dollar when measured against its major competitors. In the end, unencumbered ownership of physical gold coins and bullion, as this chart amply illustrates, has proven to be a very effective defense in the on-going process.
Chart note 2: The declining tops and bottoms indicate long-term erosion in the value of the dollar and give credence to the argument in financial circles that we may be in the beginning stages of another major downturn similar to those launched in 1985 and 2002. The 2002 event corresponded with the launch of gold’s secular bull market.
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Gold fights to nearly even on the day, ‘happy hour in America’ about to end

LATE REPORT

Gold fought its way back to nearly even on the day after briefly dipping below the $1340 level and finishing at $1348. Silver had a positive day closing up 10¢ at $16.80.

Lingering concerns about the stock market helped push gold higher. Morgan Stanley issued a report saying that “happy hour in America” was about to end. Yesterday, famed analyst Mark Mobius told Financial News that a 30% drop in stock values was a possibility. “The market looks to me to be waiting for a trigger,” he said.

He then put the spotlight on a lingering concern of our own. “ETFs,” he said, “represent so much of the market that they would make matters worse once markets start to tumble. You have computers and algorithms working 24/7 and that would basically create a snowball effect. There is no safety valve to prevent further falls, and that fall could escalate very quickly.” Most investors are aware of Charles Mackay’s writings about the madness of crowds. One day we will be reading about the madness of machines.

All of which serves as an appropriate introduction to our . . . . .

Quote of the Day
“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impassible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning (With thanks to James Quinn of The Burning Platform for the reminder.)


Are you new to the USAGOLD website?

We invite you to kick back and stay awhile.
Do a little interest-driven browsing.

We launched this website in 1997 and it has been consistently providing guidance and market information for gold investors ever since. It remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised how many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. Whether you are a new investor exploring the advantages of gold and silver ownership or a veteran looking for a place to keep up with the market, we invite your visits.

The USAGOLD Website
Coin of the realm for gold investors

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Gold down on Mnuchin ‘shot across the bow’ comment

EARLY REPORT

Gold was down moderately in the overnight markets then ratcheted down further in early U.S. trading on remarks from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that the president’s tweet yesterday was “a shot across the bow” and not a threat of imminent U.S. action. (“Oh, sorry about that chairman Xi, the president was just kidding.”) Since then it has recovered a bit and is now trading at $1343, down $6 on the day. Silver is trading steady at $16.72.

Markets these days, including gold, are incredibly fickle and unsure of themselves causing abrupt turns one direction then another. Nothing seems to make a lasting impact. The Fed will be out in force today with speeches scheduled from Patrick Harker (Philadelphia Fed), Charles Evans (Chicago Fed) and Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed).

Chart of the Day

Chart notes: Too often gold’s critics make the claim that gold reacts unfavorably to rising interest rates. That claim is not borne out by the record. To the contrary, since the Fed began raising interest rates in 2016 the price of gold has tracked higher, as you can see in the chart above.
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Gold trades sideways most of the day

LATE REPORT

Gold pretty much ended the U.S. market session today where it started trading at $1346. Not much happened during the course of the day beyond the presidential tweet quoted in this morning’s EARLY REPORT. Silver too had a sideways day ending up 3¢ on the day at $16.69. Gold was pulled in a northerly direction by the Trump tweet and concerns about the administration’s dollar policy and in a southerly direction by a cooling down of tensions in the Middle East.

Quote of the Day
“Gold and silver, like other commodities, have an intrinsic value, which is not arbitrary, but is dependent on their scarcity, the quantity of labour bestowed in procuring them, and the value of the capital employed in the mines which produce them.” — David Ricardo, British political economist (1772-1823)


Looking for a full introduction to gold investing?
You will find it in our introductory information packet!

• The rationale for gold ownership • How gold performs under various breakdown scenarios • Portfolio approaches • & More

We invite you to register today for free, immediate access to the packet. A subscription to our monthly newsletter is included with the packet.

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Gold trending higher, a presidential tweet disrupts idyllic market morning

EARLY REPORT

Gold is trending higher this morning after hitting an overnight low of $1335. It is now trading at $1348 (+$2) and level with Friday’s close. Silver is up slightly at $16.47 (+9¢). At the moment, tensions in Syria have wound down and the trade war with China has returned to the back burner. All is right with the world. Stocks are up. Oil is down. The bond market is trading quietly.

Spoiling this otherwise idyllic scene, we see that the dollar is plummeting. Might it be an early, first response to the latest presidential tweet? “Russia and China,” he warns, “are playing the Currency Devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!” Devaluation, as the trade war manual reads, begets devaluation. Resurrecting an old concern the president reminds the markets that the strong dollar policy may have become a thing of the past.

Chart of the Day

Chart note: MZM (Money Zero Maturity) is the preferred money supply measure with contemporary economists “because it better represents money readily available within the economy for spending and consumption,” according to Investopedia. We hear much about the impending return of inflation these days, but this chart shows no signs of it in monetary growth, the precursor to price inflation. In fact, it shows the complete opposite and trending down not up. The scenario depicted might not be so troubling were it not for the fact that the Federal Reserve created trillions of dollars through its quantitative easing program that somehow, as this chart clearly shows, never made it to the general economy. An article in the Wall Street Journal this morning by Nick Timiraos emphasizes that deflation is not a problem. We would agree with that finding. As for disinflation, its close cousin, well. . . .that’s another story.
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Investor sentiment begins to shift in gold’s favor – ‘a trickle not a stampede’

LATE REPORT

Here is an interesting thought as we enter the weekend: Gold market sentiment seems to be shifting.

We commented on the shift earlier in the week and posted a chart from Sentiment Trader with a short analysis from Jason Goepfert, the site’s proprietor. At the moment, the shift is nearly imperceptible and, up until today, there was little, if any, comment about it in the media. Two articles surfaced today, though, that changed all that.

In one, International Investment cited a major pick-up in demand at a London gold retailer and quoted a another gold firm executive as saying that financial professionals had begun buying to hedge “global stock declines and a falling US dollar if the tensions between Russia and the US escalated on the back of an airstrike against Syria.” It also reports “a 36% increase in first-time investors purchasing physical gold amid general uncertainty over President Trump’s policies. . .”

In the second, a Bloomberg article, John Ciampaglia, the chief executive officer of Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management, says “family offices and pension funds, looking to protect their wealth are shifting back to bullion after exiting the asset class some five years ago.”

“Gold,” said Ciampaglia, “does play the role of a safe-haven asset historically and almost like an insurance policy. . . There are people going back to gold. It’s not stampede, but it’s a trickle.” [My emphasis]

As someone who has worked with retail gold investors the whole of his adult life, I can tell you the public migration to gold coins and bullion almost always begins quietly, but it can gain momentum quickly. It is difficult to know if we are entering one of those times now, but I can say that we are beginning to experience a trickle of our own at USAGOLD.

It is led, as has been the case in past sentiment shifts, by upscale investors with a simple but important intent – preserving their assets against the uncertainties they feel lie ahead. These investors also mention that the price seems to be right. Allow me to add an observation: Anytime financial professionals are committing their own (not clients’) money to gold ownership, it probably indicates something going-on of which the rest of us should take note.

Quote of the Day
“The concern that it might be a currency crisis that could eventually bring down the fiat money system is by no means an exaggeration. In view of the risks that come with an increasingly overstretched fiat money system, we consider gold as an effective insurance: The value of gold cannot be debased by central bank policies, and gold – in contrast to fiat money deposits and short-term debt – does not carry any default risk. Bought at current prices, gold is an insurance that has upward value potential.” – DeGussa Market Report


To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.

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Gold shows resilience, bounces back from yesterday’s sell-off

EARLY REPORT

Gold showed some resilience this morning by bouncing back from yesterday’s sell-off with a good gain. It is up $7 as this is posted at $1345. Silver is up 17¢ at $16.65. Assisting the precious metals are reports that the Trump administration plans to stiffen pressure on China with new tariffs and blocking its technology exports. Then there is the lingering concern about what happens next in Syria. China has promised to react strongly to the introduction of additional duties on its U.S. exports.

Gold pushed higher despite a stronger dollar, and looks on track to complete its second straight week of gains. That trading range we have mentioned in the past between $1305 and $1360 comes to mind in that the channel seems to be narrowing – a good sign from a technical perspective. Geopolitical news, it seems, could give gold a strong push in either direction, but at the moment that venue has more chance of going negative (positive for the metals) than its does moving in the opposite direction.

Chart of the Day


Chart note
: This chart is a regular feature in the EARLY REPORT and for good reason. The long-term correlation between gold and the national debt offers one of the strongest arguments for gold as a semi-permanent aspect of the contemporary investment portfolio. Regularly, we are reminded in press reports that, with the new tax cuts and promised spending via the latest tax legislation, the United States will run deficits for the foreseeable future over $1 trillion annually. It will surprise a good many to know that over the course of the last 12 months, the United States added $1.275 trillion to the national debt.

 

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Gold takes a tumble amidst heavy futures selling

LATE REPORT

Gold took a tumble today finishing down $18 at $1335 and giving up yesterday’s gains and then some. The downside came amidst heavy selling in futures markets most of the day. Please see this morning’s EARLY REPORT further down the page for a fuller account of today’s market action. Before today’s sell-off, gold had closed higher for four days running. As a backdrop to today’s sell-off and profit-taking, markets seemed to be less concerned about tensions in the Middle East and the dispute with China over trade.

Quote of the Day
“Although there are countless scourges which in general debilitate kingdoms, principalities, and republics, the four most important (in my judgment) are dissension, [abnormal] mortality, barren soil, and debasement of the currency. The first three are so obvious that nobody is unaware of their existence. But the fourth, which concerns money, is taken into account by few persons and only the most perspicacious. For it undermines states, not by a single attack all at once, but gradually and in a certain covert manner.” – Copernicus


Recent Better Business Review

Scorecard: 46 five-star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

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“My business relationship with USAGOLD began in 2015 after being highly recommended to me by my Financial Advisor. Being a widow, I felt I needed diversification in my portfolio. After a few question and answer interviews with Jonathan via phone conversations, I was completely confident in his professional judgement and knowledge. He took the time to get to know me in order to find the perfect fit for my needs. I have gained complete trust in USAGOLDdue to their honesty, reliability, and professionalism. I can with confidence, highly recommend USAGOLD to anyone who is interested in investing in precious metals. I give them a 10 across the board based on my experience.” – Elaine M.

If the market madness of the past few weeks has you thinking you might need to hedge your portfolio with gold and silver, we invite to get in touch with us. We will provide the same kind of pricing and service that has made Elaine M. a long-time client and friend of the firm.

1-800-869-5115
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Gold gives up yesterday’s gains then some

EARLY REPORT

Gold gave up yesterday’s gains in early trading and then some. At the moment, it is trading at $1338 and down almost $15 on the day. Silver is similarly trading to the downside at $16.50 and down 19¢ on the day. Gold pushed over the technically important $1360 mark to trade briefly at the $1365 level yesterday. That price level met with a wave of selling in the paper gold market that carried over to early trading today. On the opposite side of the ledger, the dollar regained much of the ground it lost in yesterday’s trading. Both are caught in narrow channels that have developed over the early part of 2018.

The volatility in paper gold market day to day, accompanied by strong buying or selling volume on either side of the trade, indicates indecision on the part of speculators and investors as to which way the gold market is likely to break. That lack of conviction has kept the price in a channel between just over $1300 per ounce and just under $1360. A major geopolitical or financial market event though could break the price channel.

In the meanwhile, long-term physical owners of the metal have enjoyed a 6% gain in gold over the past 12 months, as reflected in today’s Chart of the Day:

Gold one year – April 12, 2017 through April 11, 2018, a 6% gain
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Gold zooms higher, finishes up $11 on the day

LATE REPORT

Gold zoomed higher early then lost some momentum on the release of last month’s Fed minutes showing a somewhat hawkish lean among policymakers. It finished up $11 on the day at $1353 reaching $1365 at one point during the trading session – well above the all-important $1360 mark. Silver managed to eke out a small gain finishing up 6¢ at $16.69. Gold moved sharply higher early on reports that the U.S. will launch a missile attack on Syria, a continuing surge in oil prices, and lingering concerns about the trade war with China.

Quote of the Day
“Vanguard founder Jack Bogle has been around the block. The 88-year-old investing titan, who is basically the father of passive investing, says this renewed regime of volatility in stocks is uncanny… ‘I have never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career. Now that’s only 66 years, so I shouldn’t make too much about it, but you’re right: I’ve seen two 50% declines, I’ve seen a 25% decline in one day and I’ve never seen anything like this before.'” – Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch


How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands, before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but valuable guidelines to help you choose the right gold and silver company.

It might be the most important decision you will make on the road to becoming a gold and silver owner.

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.
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Gold sharply higher on geopolitical concerns; Gundlach thinks gold poised for major breakout

EARLY REPORT

Gold moved sharply higher today on reports that the U.S. will launch a missile attack on Syria, a continuing surge in oil prices, and lingering concerns about the trade war with China. At the moment, the yellow metal is up $11 at $1353. Silver is lagging but up 10¢ at $16.70. The dollar fell steadily overnight and is still trending lower in early U.S. trading. Consumer prices came in at a tepid 2.4% higher year over year – slightly higher but as forecast. Commodities are also ranging higher again this morning.

One of the more interesting comments on gold in a while comes from DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach. “We’re also at the juncture in gold,” he says, “not surprisingly, because it is negatively correlated with the dollar. We see that gold broke above its downtrend line, it’s got the same look. But now we see a massive base building in gold. Massive. It’s a four-year, five-year base in gold. If we break above this resistance line one can expect gold to go up by, like, a thousand dollars.” That resistance line is at the $1360 mark – $7 higher than the current price level.

Chart of the Day

Courtesy of Sentiment Trader/Jason Goepfert
Chart note (Originally posted 4/3/18): In my out-on-the-limb 2018 gold price prediction, I highlighted a shift in overall market sentiment as the chief determinant that would push gold and silver to higher ground. That shifting sentiment has begun to materialize. It is reflected in the stock market’s performance thus far this year – down about 6%. It also underlies gold’s performance thus far this year – up about 3%. This Sentiment Trader chart maps the direction of sentiment in the gold market. Note the general uptrend and firming since early 2016 along with the corresponding rise in prices. Sentiment is now in a new upswing after a soft February.
Chart note 2 (Update 4/11/18): I sent Sentiment Trader’s Jason Goepfert, the developer of this chart, a note last week asking if my interpretation of the chart, as discussed above, was in line with his own thinking and this is what he sent back:
“I would agree. Typically when the Optimism Index stays above 50, and rarely goes below 40 during bottoming processes, it’s a sign of a solid uptrend. Vice-versa for bear markets (stays below 50, with readings above 60 preceding peaks). So the past year or so has been constructive in that regard and I’d rate it as a positive for gold. I’d get nervous if it becomes too optimistic, above 70, or drops below 40 and gold can’t rally. So far, no signs of either.”
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Gold holds on to early gains in quiet trading, news day

LATE REPORT

Gold held onto gains from the early day to finish up $3.00 at $1339. Silver finished at $16.54 and up 8¢ on the day. It was a quiet news day overall with China president Xi’s conciliatory tone on trade issues the biggest story. Though subject to interpretation, both the gold and stock markets read the remarks as mildly positive. Then again, tomorrow is a new day and we shall see what it brings. As mentioned in our EARLY REPORT rising commodities underpinned gold today as did the producer price report which came in higher than forecast.

Quote of the Day
“. . .[I]f you go down the line of currencies around the world, you don’t find many attractive opportunities. And that’s why I say if the world were to give up on dollars and give up on euros, they’d probably go back to the old standby, which is gold. And I don’t mean by gold, government run gold standard, like we had in the late 19th century. That’s politically impossible. Governments will never be willing to subordinate their policies to the constraints of a hard commodity ever again… So how could gold make a revival as a sort of international money? Well, we don’t actually need a government run gold standard anymore…since people have always had confidence in gold as a long-term store of value, there’s no reason why it couldn’t play that role.” – Benn Steil, Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations


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Gold up on conciliatory Xi remarks, rising commodities

EARLY REPORT

Gold is up $3.50 in early trading at $1339 advancing on China president Xi’s generally conciliatory speech overnight and a bump higher in the producer price index. The two events are related in that a smoothing over of the trade battle between China and the United States is seen as a positive for commodity prices. Rising commodity prices, in turn, translate to higher wholesale prices which, by the way, were up an unexpected .3% per this morning Labor Department report. Commodity indices are pushing higher this morning as a result and so are gold and silver. Silver is up 12¢ at $16.59.

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com
Chart note: This chart superimposes the gold price over the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index since 1970. Please note gold’s strength during periods of both commodity inflation (2000-2008) and disinflation (2009-2013). Should commodity inflation resume in the general economy – and a good many analysts predict it will – gold will be starting from a solid, ascending base.
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Gold marginally higher, confusion reigns in markets on trade war

LATE REPORT

Gold pushed marginally higher today finishing the day up $2.50 at $1336. Silver also finished higher at $16.45 (+10¢). There was little in the way of news to push prices with any authority in one direction or the other. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went into another nose dive presumably on news that the FBI raided the offices of President Trump’s personal lawyer, losing 400 points in the final hour of trading. Thus far, the raid has had little to no effect on the gold price.

In this morning’s early report we talked about investors dividing into two camps – those who believe the trade wars for real and those who do not. To you give you an idea of the level of confusion on the subject, Reuters reported this morning reported that China blamed the U.S. for trade friction saying negotiation was currently impossible. President Trump, on the other hand, expressed optimism “the U.S. will be able to reach a deal with China that diffuses trade tensions.” So which is it?

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio offers one of the more thoughtful analyses I have seen on the subject to date. He has gone from non-believer to believer on the trade war. I rate the essay a MUST READ. Here’s the link and below is a quote from that piece. Dalio says Bridgewater works towards “ensuring our portfolios are liquid (to be flexible) and diversified (to not have concentrated risks). Our advice for others is to do the same.” Dalio’s has publicly advocated gold ownership on several occasions over the past year or two.

Quote of the Day
“Most recently, Donald Trump threatening to raise the stakes by $100 billion and the Chinese promptly indicating that they will match the moves dollar for dollar and step by step took me and people closer than me to the negotiations by surprise. These developments broke my scenario that trade tensions would subside and increased the odds that a different and scarier agenda might be in play that raises the odds of trade, capital, cyber, and/or shooting wars on the horizon.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, 4-9-2018


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Gold turns, markets see-saw on trade war posturing

EARLY REPORT

Gold traded as low as $1327 overnight but is now staging something of a recovery by going even on the day at $1334. Silver is up 4¢ in the early going at $16.45.

With so much posturing being displayed on both sides in the trade war, it is difficult for investors to separate possibilities from probabilities, the likely course of action from the unlikely. Add to that the mixed signals coming out of the Trump administration and you get the kind of see-saw results we are seeing in all markets, including gold.

Investors have divided themselves into two camps – those who believe the trade wars are for real and those who do not. Currently, the two are battling it out for primacy in the financial markets. I would like to say it will all become clear ultimately, but something tells me this is the way it is going to be for some time to come.

Bloomberg is running a headline story this morning that “China is studying yuan devaluation as a tool in trade spat.” I’ll enter that in the posturing column and go on with my day. There is something self-defeating about telling the world you want your currency to compete against the dollar as a reserve currency, then devalue it at the first sign of trouble.

Chart of the Day

Chart note: “Silver’s price behavior [as shown in the chart above] is unusual, making it a challenging investment psychologically. Most of the time silver is maddeningly boring, drifting listlessly for months or sometimes years on end. So the vast majority of investors abandon it and move on, which is exactly what’s happened since late 2016. There’s so little interest in silver these days that even traditional primary silver miners are actively diversifying into gold!
But just when silver is universally left for dead, one of its massive uplegs or bull markets suddenly ignites. Some catalyst, typically a major gold rally, convinces investors to return to silver. Their big capital inflows easily overwhelm the tiny global silver market, catapulting this metal sharply higher. Silver skyrockets to amazing wealth-multiplying gains, dwarfing nearly everything else. This reinvigorates silver’s cult-like following.” – Adam Hamilton, SafeHaven, 4-6-2018

USAGOLD’s Order Desk can point you in the right direction on the right silver items for your portfolio at the right price. And if you are thinking about a major purchase, we can help you set-up a cost-effective safe storage account that alleviates delivery and storage concerns . . . . . . . . . .1-800-869-5115, Ext#100

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Gold finishes on positive, Wall Streeters face less than restful weekend

LATE REPORT

Gold ended today on a positive note finishing at $1334 and up $2.50 on the day. Silver, on the other hand, lost 4¢ to finish at $16.41. A disappointing jobs report was the prime mover in today’s pricing, but all day long the building drama of the impending trade war with China dominated the market mood. Stocks took a pounding and ended up 572 points lower on the day. Gold did well to hold its own under the circumstances and rally from the day’s lows at the $1321 mark. One gets the unsettled feeling that things could suddenly spin out of control. To accompany that thought, we point you in the direction of tonight’s Quote of the Day from the always thoughtful Telegraph columnist, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

Quote of the Day
“A Wall Street crash is perhaps the only deterrent that Trump really fears as the mid-term elections approach and Democrats threaten to gain control of impeachment powers on Capitol Hill. China could — if it chose — trigger this with large sales of its $1.2 trillion holding of US Treasuries. Yet, it is a perilous game for China as well. It is an open question who would be hurt most if the stand-off worsens. China’s hawks are clearly prone to hubris and delusions, unaware of just how fragile their system has become after pushing debt to 270 per cent of gross domestic product. The return on new credit has collapsed and officials at the central bank (PBOC) fear a ‘Minsky moment’. The catch-up growth model is exhausted. The middle income trap looms.” – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (From an article titled: Trump’s power struggle with China isn’t about trade – It is a tussle over which of the two superpowers will dominate technology and run the world in the 21st century)


How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands, before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but valuable guidelines to help you choose the right gold and silver company.

It might be the most important decision you will make on the road to becoming a gold and silver owner.

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.
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Gold firming up in the early going on trade war escalation and weak jobs report

EARLY REPORT

Gold is firming up at $1329 in early trading as it, along with the rest of the financial markets, tries to decipher both an escalation in the China-U.S. trade war and a weak jobs report. Silver is up 2¢ at $16.46. The yellow metal hit a low of $1321 in overnight trading before regaining its footing following the jobs report.

President Trump rolled out the artillery last night promising another $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce fired back this morning with an announcement that China will not hesitate with a ‘major response’ to new tariffs.

Wasn’t it just the other day that Larry Kudlow was out and about telling Wall Street not to over-react – that “at the end of this whole process, the end of the rainbow, there’s a pot of gold”? Wall Street might find that advice difficult to take to heart when the sounds of battle can be heard just over the horizon. It is the period between the beginning and the end of the trade war – the conflict itself – that remains worrisome.

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com
Chart note: This is the chart that has the president’s attention. The trend, as you can see, is not encouraging. Yesterday’s balance of trade report was the worst in over 9 years – $56.6 billion in the red.
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Gold has lackluster day under eerily calm conditions

LATE REPORT

Gold had another lackluster day today to match an equally lackluster week thus far finishing at $1327, down $7. Last Friday’s close was $1325. Silver managed to eke out a gain finishing at $16.40 and up 4¢. Market concerns in general seemed to have calmed over the past two days. The White House is doing everything it can to tamp down market worries about the trade dispute with China. Interest rate concerns have faded into the background. Nothing has surfaced of late on the geopolitical front. It has been eerily quiet this past week. . . . .Too quiet, the more skeptical among us might warn.

Quote of the Day
“We realized that the human touch was interesting but actually a hindrance to what it took to really trade these markets correctly. The only thing you could do is figure out how you automated all the human aspects of trading, understanding what drove stock prices, and then used those algorithms to make markets.” – Vikram Pandit, Orogen Group (formerly CEO at Citigroup)



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Gold pushes lower despite weak jobs, widening trade gap

EARLY REPORT

Gold continued to push lower this morning despite a weak jobs report and a widening trade gap – outcomes in the past which have had the opposite effect. Gold is trading at $1326, down $7.50 on the day. Silver is also losing ground though marginally – down 5¢ at $16.27. Commodities are generally higher and the dollar is also up somewhat.

The World Gold Council had a bit of good news this morning: Gold ETF inventories are on the rise indicating continued interest in the metal from institutions and funds. There is a perception in the market that trade tensions are cooling off and that has encouraged an unwinding of the risk premium attached to gold in recent weeks, but these are short term considerations. “You’ve really got to back away from the forest to really see these trees,” Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures, told CNBC this morning. “This gold market bottomed in 2015 and it’s had higher lows in 2016, 2017. This has been extremely constructive even to a point we almost have a bull flag building since the January spike.”

Chart of the Day

Chart note: The annual rate of return on gold since 2001: 14 years of positive returns, one year level, two years of negative returns. Not a bad track record after all is said and done during times of rapid, and often unexpected changes in the financial markets and the economy.
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Gold gives up in New York what it achieved overnight in the East

LATE REPORT

Gold gave up much of what it gained overnight under another wave of heavy selling on the COMEX. The metal ended up even on the day at $1334 after being up as much as $14 in overnight trading. Silver finished down 8¢ on the day at $16.34. What was achieved in the East, in short, was unwound in New York. The selling, as has been the case in other instances of heavy-volume selling over the past week to ten days, appears to have been computer-based algo-trading.

A White House “official” came public with a statement that the Trump administration was not planning “a new big trade initiative against China.”  In other words, at least for the time being and from the U.S. point of view, the tit-for-tat tariffs are on hold.  Instead the administration will “focus on implementing moves that have already been announced,” according to a Reuters report.

This announcement is an important one. We will now move from the visceral stage in the financial markets to the contemplative. As the Trump administration “implements,” the market will begin to sort out what it really means. That is when the true market reaction will surface and it will not be over one or two days, one or two weeks. Too, it will not be long until the effects begin to show up in the stores and showrooms and eventually in wholesale and retail price indices. Then we will know if it is a minor event, as some are attempting to tell us, or something more significant.

Quote of the Day

“There’s debt behind this asset bubble, and this leverage is what’s risky. So I think the Fed is clearly, this time, on the side of targeting assets bubbles. Investors are asking if the stock market drops, if the Dow drops a thousand or two thousand or five thousand points, is the Fed going to step in and put a stop to it? And my gut feeling is, no, they won’t. They will let this run unless credit freezes up. They’re trying to bring these asset prices down somewhat. I think that’s the environment we’re in. We have bubbles everywhere, and now we have Central Banks trying to somehow save the system with minimum damage.” – Wolf Richter, WolfStreet.com


So asks gold market commentator, Arkadiusz Sieron, “The LBMA published its annual forecast survey for precious metals prices in 2018,” he goes on. “Gold prices range from $1,120 to $1,510. Where is the price of the yellow metal headed? . . . .

If you are new to USAGOLD you might appreciate this summary of the bullish and bearish cases for gold. Then, if you really want to dig into the reasons why gold ownership makes sense for the average investor, scroll through a few weeks of posts below and spend some quality time where your interests lead you. . . . . .If you have any questions, please give us a call or pop us an e-mail. We have helped a very large number of investors from all walks of life include gold and silver in their portfolios. We can help you.

1-800-869-5115
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To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.

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Gold pushes higher on China tariff retaliation

EARLY REPORT

Gold pushed higher in overseas trading as China took the trade wars to the next level with new tariffs on a range of U.S. products from soybeans to automobiles. The momentum carried over to the U.S. open where traders tacked on even more gains. The yellow metal is up $14 as this posted at $1347. Silver is trading at $16.51, up 7¢. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 485 as we post this report.

With silver lagging, we can safely say that the push in gold is coming from safe-haven investors – institutions, funds and private investors globally – looking for shelter from the gathering storm. Commodities in general are a mixed bag at best this morning with concerns about reduced Chinese consumption of raw materials one of the anticipated casualties of the trade wars.

Lost in the whirlwind around trade and interest rates is some unsettling news on another front. The national debt which surpassed the $21 trillion mark on March 15 just went over the $21.1 trillion mark yesterday. In what has to be some kind of a record, it took only 18 days for Treasury to grow the national debt by another $161 billion or .8%.

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com
Chart note: The Dow Jones Industrial average is down almost 8% on the year and nearly 12% from its near-term peak on January 22, 2018.
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