Today’s top gold news and opinion

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9/28/2023
Must-watch: Singapore Reserves Revealed  insight into the country’s rainy day fund  (CNA)
Insight into the country’s rainy day fund

Gold hastens retreat on higher-for-longer rate bets (Reuters)
Soft landing?…

Costco is selling gold bars and they are selling out within a few hours (CNBC)
$1.50 Hotdog and an ounce of gold

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In Loving Memory of Michael J. Kosares: A 50-Year Legacy of Gold Advocacy

It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I share that my father, Michael J. Kosares, owner and founder of USAGOLD, passed away last Thursday (September 7, 2023) after a multi-year battle with cancer.  He was 75 years old.  After fifty years of dedication and devotion to the precious metals business, my father only hung-up his hat just a few weeks ago when he was physically no longer able to work.

Despite countless professional accolades over the course of his storied career, he was never one to boast, nor one to seek out acknowledgement or praise. For him, true success came in a well written article – one he deemed ‘had what it took’ to make a lasting impact, not necessarily just for our company, but for our industry as a whole, for our colleagues, for our clients, for our subscribers and site visitors, and for really anyone and everyone who took an interest in precious metals and encountered his work.  He was an unwavering and tireless advocate for gold and silver ownership throughout his career, educating generations of investors on the merits of owning physical metals as a means to preserve and protect their wealth during turbulent economic times.  From his hardcopy newsletter, ‘News & Views’, to three editions of his educational treatise, ‘The ABC’s of Gold Investing,’ to volumes of original content delivered via our website over the past 25 years, he spent five decades on the vanguard of gold market news, analysis, and commentary.  A truly gifted writer, he made economics accessible, displaying again and again a remarkable ability to simplify even the most complex subjects for his readers.  He would take on vast and complicated financial topics, distill them down to the salient points, weave in an interesting history lesson, and top it all off with a bit of clever humor – leaving his readers not only informed and enlightened, but truly entertained.

To say he will be missed is certainly an understatement.  To answer ‘was his career a success?’, look no further than the countless individuals who know his name, have been inspired by his work and have benefitted from his wisdom.  He leaves behind an exemplary legacy, and one I am deeply honored to carry forward.

Jonathan Kosares
COO/Owner – USAGOLD
jonathan@usagold.com

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Daily Gold Market Report

Gold drifts lower on sinking Chinese economy, caution ahead of inflation data
Mish Shedlock comments on favorable chart set-up for gold

(USAGOLD – 8/8/2023) – Gold drifted lower in early trading as China reported double-digit declines in both imports and exports, and investors took to the sidelines ahead of Thursday’s inflation data. It is down $11 at $1927. Silver is down 24¢ at $22.96. Mish Shedlock, the widely read editor of MIshTalk, recently had a few brief but supportive comments on the current technical set-up for gold. He says neither triple tops (like the one prominently displayed on the current gold chart) nor bottoms tend to hold. “If that view is correct,” he says, “gold is headed higher. Seasonally speaking, gold is heading into a favorable time of year. Finally, this has been a long 3-year consolidation period, with gold not too far from record highs.” He ends with some straightforward advice: “If you have faith in central banks, sell your gold. Otherwise, I suggest hanging on to it.”

Gold price
(Five year)
bar chart 5 year on gold
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Daily Gold Market Report

Gold trades cautiously to the downside ahead of inflation reports, bond sales
World Gold Council reports solid coin and bar demand for Q2-2023

(USAGOLD – 8/7/2023) – Gold is trading cautiously to the downside as it begins a week that includes the all-important consumer and wholesale inflation reports. It is down $7 at $1939. Silver is down 21¢ $23.50. Also on the agenda is a massive offering of Treasury notes and bonds, sure to be closely monitored by bond market participants.

The World Gold Council reports a net deceleration in central bank purchases during the second quarter (year over year) but a solid increase in bar and coin demand (+6%). Despite the decline in central bank demand from above-average in last year’s second quarter, WGC still sees it as “resolutely positive.” Total demand is up 7% over the same quarter last year.

bar chart showing sector gold demand Q2-2023
Chart courtesy of the World Gold Council • • • Click to enlarge

 

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Gold demand trends Q2 2023 – World Gold Council

––World Gold Council/Staff/8-1-2023

“Central bank buying slowed in Q2 but remained resolutely positive. This, combined with healthy investment and resilient jewellery demand, created a supportive environment for gold prices.”

USAGOLD note: Bar and coin demand increased by 6% year over year in the second quarter.

Bar chart showing strong gold coin demand during the second quarter 2023
Chart courtesy of World Gold Council

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The USAGOLD Website
A guiding light for our current and would-be clientele since 1997

graphic image of light house beaming
Welcome newcomers!

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1997), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 26-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning, we have grown to almost 800,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is a good place to start. 

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‘Last hike of the cycle’: economists predict Federal Reserve is done with interest rate rises

Financial Times/Colby Smith/7-26-2023

graphic illustrating a sign of confusion“Nothing in the policy statement or the press conference led me to doubt our view that this will be the last hike of the cycle,” said Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. “The consumer is slowing, jobs are slowing, inflation is slowing and all those big pieces of the economy have been coming in line with our expectations.”

USAGOLD note: The tussle between an adamant Fed and a dubious Wall Street continues ………

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FOMZZZZ… But an inflation spike could wake us yet

Bloomberg/John Authers/7-27-2023

graphic image of walk in a deep, fearful wood

“The Fed promised us a nonevent and it delivered — give or take a few comments. The Federal Open Market Committee did indeed raise the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to the highest level in 22 years at 5.5%. But as that outcome had been rated a 99% probability when Wednesday dawned, it came as no surprise.”

graphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend ReadUSAGOLD note:  We are not yet out of the inflation woods……Gasoline prices, says Authers, could trigger a surprise summer wake-up call.

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Short & Sweet
‘He clung to that which he could really trust, really own, really control’

photo of stacks of gold and silver coins

In an analysis posted at Daily Reckoning, Jeffery Tucker offered an opinion on inflation shared by a good many economists and investors. “Gradually,” he writes, “we’ve come to see the light. There will be no rolling back those price increases in general. There will be declines in the pace of increase here or there but overall prices have shifted upward, permanently.” With that in mind, he shares some family history: “There is nothing we can take for granted in this inflationary crazy economic environment, no rules of thumb that can really guide us. My father was a thrifty man, a truly great man, but also a believer in long-term value and truth. Yes, he loved gold and silver coins too, and very much so. He accumulated them throughout his life. As I look at that today, it is extremely obvious that this was one of his best financial decisions. He was never a day trader or a rah-rah techno champion. He clung to that which he could really trust, really own, really control. That seems like a good way to think even now.”

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There’s a weird link between money and bees, and it goes back thousands of years

Science Alert/Adrian Dyer/7-25-2023

Greek gold coin portraying beegraphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend Read“Over the centuries between these two events, currency demonstrating a symbolic link between honey and money is surprisingly common. In a recent study in Australian Coin Review, I trace the bee through numismatic history – and suggest a scientific reason why our brains might naturally draw a connection between the melliferous insects and the abstract idea of value.”

USAGOLD note: All about the connections between bees, honey, and money……

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‘Eye-popping’ $1 trillion third-quarter borrowing need from U.S. Treasury raises risk of buyers’ fatigue

MarketWatch/Vivien Lou Chen/8-1-2023

graphic representation of a tsunami“Just a day after the Treasury Department released a $1 trillion borrowing estimate for the third quarter, questions are being raised about the extent to which foreign and domestic buyers can continue to keep up their demand for U.S. government debt.”

USAGOLD note: This article details some of the problems accompanying this enormous issuance of government debt. It was published before Fitch’s downgrade announcement.

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Notable Quotable

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“There is nothing we can take for granted in this inflationary crazy economic environment, no rules of thumb that can really guide us. My father was a thrifty man, a truly great man, but also a believer in long-term value and truth. Yes, he loved gold and silver coins too, and very much so. He accumulated them throughout his life. As I look at that today, it is extremely obvious that this was one of his best financial decisions. He was never a day trader or a rah-rah techno champion. He clung to that which he could really trust, really own, really control. That seems like a good way to think even now.” – Jeffrey Tucker, Daily Reckoning

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Fitch’s US debt-rating downgrade is bad news for stocks.

MarketsInsider/George Glover/8-2-2023

graphic illustration of US capital spewing dollars“August is usually the quietest month of the year for the stock market. But Fitch shattered any sense of summer calm last night when it slashed the US government’s credit score, in what could end up being a massive blow to President Joe Biden’s economic track record.”

USAGOLD note: Biden’s track record wasn’t exactly glowing before the Fitch announcement. A good many analysts have warned of late that the government’s fiscal stance – and that includes both the Biden administration and Congress – has become a danger to the economy and financial markets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped from 4.01% to 4.105% after the Fitch announcement.

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One hell of a head fake on gold

MishTalk/Mish Shedlock/7-31-2023

image of 500 gram gold bar with chart in background“Gold has big daily drop following Fed and ECB announcements. The pullback lasted 2 days before a big blast higher. In the wake of fluff announcements by the Fed and ECB in which no reporters asked any difficult questions, gold took a mini-dump then surged twice as much two days later.”

USAGOLD note: Mish posts a thumbnail analysis of the current gold market and concludes: “If you have faith in central banks, sell your gold. Otherwise, I suggest hanging onto it.” Worth a visit……

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How to choose a gold firm
It may be the most important choice you make as a gold owner

photo shows choosing a king on the chessboard

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but useful guidelines
to help
you choose the right gold and silver company.


To end right, start right.
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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Monetary vs fiscal dissonance and the return of QE

Zero Hedge/Crescat Capital/7-23-2023

“Following the COVID era, we have entered a period of fiscal dominance among major developed economies. Hence, the escalating debt burden is already near historical levels and compounding at an alarming pace. To sustain the current government spending deluge, we believe it is inevitable that the Fed and other monetary authorities reassume their fundamental role as the primary financiers of government debt.”

USAGOLD note: Crescat predicts “capital will divert away from US Treasuries and flow into gold.”

visualization of the relationship between the federal debt and gold

Chart courtesy of VisualCapitalist.com

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The US reserve currency and commodities

Goehring & Rozencwajg/7-24-2023

photo of gold bars atop a $100 bill“Incredibly, by 2016 commodity prices had sold off to such an extent that they were the most radically undervalued in 120 years. The only times that came close were in 1929, 1969, and 1999. Following every prior period of radical undervaluation, commodity and natural-resource related investments dramatically outperformed, both in absolute and relative terms.”

USAGOLD note: In this in-depth study, Goehring & Rozencwajg say the coming rally and eventual overvaluation in commodities will likely be led by gold.

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Short and Sweet
Two legendary central bankers embrace gold

Image of one-time central bank heads Mervyn King and Alan Greenspan

In The End of Alchemy (2017), Mervyn King, the former governor of the Bank of England, writes of central banks’ frustration in dealing with the persistently stagnant global economy. “Central banks,” he says, “have thrown everything at their economies, and yet the results have been disappointing, Whatever can be said about the world recovery since the crisis, it has been neither strong, nor sustainable, nor balanced. . . [W]ithout reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain – sooner rather than later.”

“Our problem,” Alan Greenspan once said, “is not recession which is a short-term economic problem. I think you have a very profound long-term problem of economic growth at the time when the Western world, there is a very large migration from being a worker into being a recipient of social benefits as it is called. And this is legally mandated in all of our countries.” The western world, he concludes, is headed to “a state of disaster.”

It is interesting to note that both Greenspan and King, two of the most respected central bankers in modern times, have embraced gold since leaving their respective posts. The former Fed chairman has consistently suggested that gold is “a good place to put money these days given the policies of governments.”

The former governor of the Bank of England says that he is “very struck by the fact that over many, many years, central banks, governments and individuals have always, despite the protestations of economists, held some gold in their portfolio…[W]hen unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, then gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept. And I think that’s why even central banks have always had a role in their portfolios for gold.”

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A long-time market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500 could plummet 64%, bursting a historic bubble

MarketsInsider/Zahra Tayeb/7-25-2023

graphic image of a seated bear gazing quietly back at the viewer“John Hussman is doubling down on his dire outlook for US stocks, even after the market defied recession predictions to notch some impressive gains this year.”

USAGOLD note: Hussman is not impressed by the stock market rally thus far this year. “Yes, this is a bubble  in my view,” he says. “Yes, I believe it will end in tears.”

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