12/06/2023

Young Chinese spurn traditional investments in favour of gold (Reuters)
“Incomes are not really appreciating, real estate is not really appreciating, the stock market is not really appreciating. Gold is a little bit of a unicorn in this environment.”

EV Boom Drives Miner’s $100 Million Hunt for New Palladium Uses (Bloomberg)
Potential uses include products in hydrogen and solar sectors

Gold’s Bold Move to New Closing High (Sprott)
Central banks and sovereign buying have put a floor under gold prices…

12/05/2023

Gold price hits all-time high as traders bet on interest rate cuts (FT)
Gold remains far from its inflation-adjusted high of about $3,300 per troy ounce achieved in 1980..

UAE: Why is everyone buying gold despite record-high prices? (Zawya)
Huge crowds and busy shops were seen all across the country as people flocked to buy the yellow metal

COT: Speculators add further fuel to gold rally (Saxo)
Firm belief that rates have peaked

12/04/2023

Fitch sees industrial metal prices falling in 2024, gold set to rise (Mining)
Regional debate around nationalizing the mining sector in areas like Chile and Peru had begun to ebb..

Case for gold fever: NewEdge Wealth sees record rush intensifying (CNBC)
“Central banks are again outbidding gold against dwindling supply”

Precious metals take top spot for a second month (Saxo)
Precious metals sector tops the performance table with a gain around 4%

12/01/2023

Gold Inches Closer to Record High as Bets for Fed Pivot Beef Up (Yahoo)
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he’s growing increasingly confident that inflation is firmly on a downward path

Saudi Arabia studies graphite, rare earths trading platform (Reuters)
There are currently no exchanges offering contracts for graphite or rare earth metals, both important materials for electric vehicle and the energy transition.

Global commodity markets are in a ‘super-squeeze’ (CNBC)
Paul Bloxham of HSBC explains why supply-side disruptions are the reasons behind the elevation of commodity prices

11/30/2023

Decreasing Inflation Shouldn’t Stifle Gold Prices, Says Strategist (ETF Trends)
Demand should also stay elevated in the 2024 election year for the U.S

IMF, World Bank and BIS in first ‘tokenisation’ collaboration (Reuters)
“encoding policy and regulatory requirements” into a “common protocol”

An Unclassified Peek Inside Fort Knox Gold Depository (Coin Week)
Exclusive from former Director of the United States Mint

11/29/2023

Gold, Silver And Bitcoin Shine Brightly This Holiday Season (Forbes)
Industrial demand for the white metal is expected to hit an all-time high this year

Gold bars and Tokyo apartments:How money is flowing out of China (Japan Times)
an estimated $50 billion a month has been taken out of China this year..

Panama’s top court rules First Quantum contract unconstitutional (Mining.com)
Cobre Panama mine accounts for about 1.5% of global production of copper

11/28/2023

Goldman says ‘shine is returning’ for gold as investors ramp up bets on rate cuts (CNBC)
CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 25% probability of a cut as soon as March

Gold taking pole position in 2023; rhodium has fallen to the back of the pack (Heraeus)
The gold price is currently 8.4% higher than at the start of the year

Gold price hits six-month high as investors bet on rate cuts (FT)
“The US rate outlook is the key driver for gold”

11/27/2023

ETF Investors Bail On Gold Bullion For 5 Straight Months (Forbes)
Exchange-traded fund investors are falling out of love with gold bullion

China turns to households in fight to slash carbon emissions (Reuters)
Shenzhen’s “Carbon Road for Everyone” scheme, rewards people for logging their use of public transport, is one of dozens of programs around China encouraging citizens to ditch cars, plant trees and cut energy use

Interview: Joe Cavatoni – Chief Market Strategist For The World Gold Council (InvestmentNews)
Gold set to shine in 2024 thanks to increased central bank buying

11/22/2023

Gold prices settle above $2,000 an ounce for highest finish late October (MarketWatch)
“Gold is seeing a pattern of strong buying demand coming out of Asia with India importing significantly more gold in October than was forecasted last month”

What asset tokenization will look like in 2024 and beyond (Yahoo)
A multi-trillion market by 2030

Gold in the MENA Region (BullionWorld)
A Profile of Gold Markets in Saudi Arabia,Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Sudan, Libya, and the UAE

11/21/2023

How traceability of gold became a focus for independent jewellers (FT)
Certification of small-scale miners provides ethical reassurance

Ray Dalio says U.S. reaching an inflection point where the debt problem quickly gets even worse (CNBC)
The government spent $659 billion on net interest costs in fiscal 2023 to finance the debt..

11/20/2023

Global Silver Industrial Demand Forecast to Achieve New High in 2023 (Yahoo)
Silver Industrial demand is expected to grow 8% to a record 632 million ounces (Moz) this year

JPMorgan adds ‘holy grail’ payments feature as part of blockchain push (Blockworks)
“a real-time and a programmable treasury”

How Can I Use My Gold In A Cashless Society (Robots)
Financial Crisis Protection..

11/17/2023

Singapore to pilot use of wholesale central bank digital currencies in 2024 (CNBC)
Here they come..

IMF chief urges more proactive push for central bank digital currencies (Reuters)
When it rains it pours..

Human Rights Foundation (HRF) Launches Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (HRF)
So you are informed going forward..

11/16/2023

Fitch says US regional bank challenges to persist in 2024 (Reuters)
“Regional banks lacking in scale will be disproportionately pressured to reduce cost bases and optimize loan composition”

Hong Kong Ousts Dubai as Biggest Hub for Russian Gold Trade (Yahoo)
Hong Kong imported 68 tons of Russian gold this year, four times as much as the whole of 2022

I’m a Gen Z worker who just graduated and started my first full-time job. I was shocked by the 9-to-5 schedule. (Business Insider)
Says it’s really depressing to work a 9-to-5 schedule

11/15/2023

Gold advances as yields, dollar slip after US inflation data (Reuters)
US consumer prices unchanged in October

The case for loosening is getting stronger (FT)
As inflation eases, central banks now find themselves at the most difficult point in the policymaking cycle

‘What the Hell Is Going On at the FDIC?’ Lawmakers Grill Agency Chairman (WSJ)
Accounts of alleged harassment, toxic culture within bank regulator

11/14/2023

Important Silver Demand Drivers To Effectively Double Rate Of Growth Over Next Decade (Silver Institute)
New research indicates that silver industrial demand is forecast to increase 46 percent through 2033

Swiss investors buck the trend of gold ETF divestment (Heraeus)
Funds based in Switzerland bucked the market trend in October by increasing the gold held by 691 koz, or 8% of total Swiss funds’ holdings

Gold demand surges from India to Hong Kong despite price rally linked to Israel-Gaza war (SCMP)
Asia’s legendary appetite for gold is intact in the run-up to peak festival and wedding season

11/13/2023

Gold miners’ AISC still rising, but at a slower pace (World Gold Council)
In Q2’23 the gold miners’ global average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) rose to US$1,315/oz

Here’s Why Moody’s ‘Negative’ U.S. Credit Outlook Matters (Forbes)
Congress continues to fail to pass a budget, a government shutdown next week appears increasingly likely

More than half of Singapore’s rich investing more in safer assets like cash, gold (StraitsTimes)
Study surveyed more than 460 HNWIs in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Taiwan and Australia

11/9/2023

UK Sanctions Gold and Oil Traders in New Russian Clampdown (Bloomberg)
UK restricts gold trader Paloma and Howard Jon Baker

Gold ETFs Record Fifth Successive Monthly Outflow In October (Forbes)
Net outflows from these physically backed funds amounted to $2 billion (or 37 tonnes) last month

PLATINUM FOR THE WIN (World Platinum Invest Council)
Next year’s Olympic Games will showcase how platinum-based hydrogen technology can help achieve the goal of net zero

11/8/2023

Gold mining ETFs fail to keep pace with benchmark bullion fund (Reuters)
The correlation between gold prices and gold miners’ shares stands at 0.6 in 2023, down from a historical level of 0.8

Gold retreats as safe-haven rally fizzles, palladium hits 5-year low (CNBC)
“the sooner the first rate cut gets pushed in the forecast, the better it is for gold”

Gold Outlook to Q3 2024 (Wisdomtree)
Galvanized by geopolitics

11/7/2023

Gold stays steady as rates remain at 22-year high (Heraeus)
Possible we will see some of this ‘war premium’ dissipate over the next few weeks..

WeWork’s Multibillion Rescue Couldn’t Save It From Office Bust (Bloomberg)
Once worth $47 billion, set to file bankruptcy, CRE is imploding..

Israel-Hamas conflict pushing gold price to highs, says Newmont boss (FT)
“There are certainly scenarios that you could see it pushing up through record highs, Unfortunately those scenarios for our society aren’t great.” 

11/6/2023

China is Hoarding the World’s Gold (Newsweek)
Responsible for acquiring 181 tonnes out of a total 800 tonnes purchased by central banks worldwide..

Gold ETFs Rebound (NASDAQ)
Can the Momentum Continue?

Colombia Accelerates Plan to Recover Up to $20 Billion in Sunken Treasure (Bloomberg)
The 62-gun Spanish galleon was sunk in battle by the British in 1708

11/3/2023

Gold and oil take centre stage as geopolitics rise to the fore (Wisdomtree)
Gold continues to defy its historic relationship with bonds, with bond prices falling hard while gold prices have risen..

Metals Insights: Three Factors Keeping a Floor Under Gold (CME Group)
For a second time this year, gold has crossed its key psychological level of $2,000

Why the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady could lift gold back above $2,000 (MarketWatch)
Strong U.S. yields should help underpin the dollar, and provide at least somewhat of a headwind for gold

11/2/2023

Powell Hints Fed Is Done With Hikes in Pivot Cheered by Markets (Bloomberg)
2 Year Yield Plunges..

HSBC Takes Stab at Using Blockchain to Modernize London’s Antiquated Gold Market (Bloomberg)
One token on HSBC’s new system is equivalent to 0.001 troy ounce

Gold supported in 2024 by bets on monetary policy easing (Reuters)
The latest poll shows just 55% of economists say the Fed will cut by mid-2024

11/1/2023

China leads record central bank gold buying in first nine months of year (FT)
Central banks in emerging markets look to reduce reliance on US dollar for reserves holdings.

Silver-Based Gel With Amino Acids 100 Times More Effective Than Conventional Silver Drugs (Silver Institute)
Production of this gel is inexpensive and non-toxic

Biden’s New AI Executive Order Is Regulation Run Amok (Forbes)
May prove one of the most dangerous government policies in years..

10/31/2023

BlackRock warns investor disdain for mining threatens green transition (FT)
Complacency over supply of transition metals..

Be Smart — How To Recession-Proof Your Portfolio With Gold (Forbes)
Suggests 20-25% of wealth be invested in gold and/or silver

Universal basic income is working — even in red states (BusinessInsider)
“Economically stable people make better neighbors. When they aren’t worried about how they’re going to pay their bills, they tend not to come through your window at night.”

10/30/2023

Gold Is Now Beating the S&P 500 This Year (WSJ)
Gold up 9.3% this year, while the benchmark for U.S. stocks is up 7.7%

The Nasdaq’s fallen into a correction (YahooFinance)
Down about 23% year-to-date

Top gold refiner exits Swiss industry group over sourcing fight (Mining)
IValcambi SA has resigned from the Swiss gold refining association

10/27/2023

US economic growth accelerated to 4.9% in third quarter (FT)
8.0% increase in defense spending…

The US can’t grow its way out of its $33 trillion debt mountain (BuisnessInsider)
The government is on track to hit a record-high debt-to-GDP ratio by 2029

What’s Driving the Price of Gold? (NASDAQ)
Interview with Ruth Crowell, CEO of LBMA

10/26/2023

More alarm bells sound on slowing demand for electric vehicles (Reuters)
High interest rates are derailing the ambitions of climate regulators and automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles

How Romans pioneered silver recycling (Mining)
Gold impurities in silver coins and lead pollution in Greenland ice show that the Romans were pioneers of recycling

Interview: 3D Printing Platinum in the Jewelry Sector (3DPrint)
The most common method for precious metal Additive Manufacturing, is based mainly on laser powder bed fusion

10/25/2023

Precious metals’ place in a portfolio (ABRDN)
Precious metals largely remain an underutilized and overlooked investment option.

Scientists Solve Mystery of Precious Metals in Earth’s Mantle (ExplorersWeb) (PNAS)
Elements that came to Earth through impacts from giant asteroids and protoplanets, all bind easily to iron

US consumers selling their gold to make ends meet  (KITCO)
The gold market continues to prove its worth as an essential store of value

10/24/2023

PRECIOUS APPRAISAL (Heraeus)
Gold surprisingly resistant in the face of yet higher treasury yields.

Behind the Curtain: Rattled U.S. government fears wars could spread (Axios)
U.S. officials say this confluence of crises poses epic concern and historic danger

Central Banks Support Gold & Solar PV Demand Buoys Silver  (Sprott)
Green technologies have emerged as the largest demand vector for silver

10/23/2023

China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict (Reuters)
Gold-denominated bonds?

Gold rallies as geopolitical turmoil overshadows rising bond yields (FT)
Gold breaks its long-term correlation with US Treasuries

Gold miners’ fat profits  (Mining)
Q3 profits are poised to skyrocket

10/20/2023

Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down (CNBC)
The central bank would be “resolute” in its commitment to its 2% mandate..

Researchers in Japan succeed in collecting deep-sea gold using algae (NHK)
They collected gold from near a 700-meter-deep hydrothermal vent

OTC demand pushing gold to Asia could be why prices can withstand 5% bond yields  (KITCO)
This past year, 500 family investment offices were opened in Singapore, compared to about 40 per year pre-COVID

10/19/2023

China Sells Most US Securities in Four Years Amid Yuan Weakness (Bloomberg)
The treasury sell off continues…

The Myth of the Great Boomer Wealth Transfer (BusinessInsider)
Probably going to spend all their savings before they can pass anything down to their children..

ECB starts preparation for digital euro in multi-year project  (Reuters)
Small step in a multi-year project

10/18/2023

Have central banks lost control over the gold price? (GoldMoney)
IGold prices have completely detached from model-predicted values.

Bank of America’s unrealized losses on securities rose to $131.6 bln (Reuters)
Is this real life?

Yellen says U.S. can simultaneously support Israel and Ukraine war aims  (MarketWatch)
33 trillion in debt, but can afford 2 foreign wars simultaneously…

10/17/2023

Weak Chinese EV demand drives down battery metal prices (FT)
Irrational exuberance..

Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust (WSJ)
Highest mortgage rates in 23 years are dragging down home sales

Australia open to idea of CBDC as future of money  (CoinTelegraph)
“A Tokenised Future for the Australian Financial System”

10/16/2023

Newcrest Shareholders Approve Newmont’s $15 Billion Takeover (Bloomberg)
Gold sector’s largest-ever deal

It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over (Buisness Insider)
End of an era?

Want a Discount? Pay in Cash.  (WSJ)
Is a 3% cash discount enough to make people ditch credit cards and payment apps?

10/13/2023

US inflation higher than expected in September (FT)
Will the Fed raise again?

US Treasury Debt Dynamics ‘Very Unfavorable,’ IMF Official Says (Bloomberg)
US on an ‘unsustainable’ fiscal path with big deficits

Social Security Benefits Will Rise 3.2% In 2024, While Top Tax Jumps 5.2%  (Forbes)
Small boost compared to the 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2023

10/12/2023

The Case for Gold in Defined Contribution Asset Allocations (World Gold Council)
Portfolios of equities and bonds has come under increasing pressure

ExxonMobil agrees to buy shale group Pioneer in $59.5bn deal (FT)
Biggest acquisition since it was formed through the merger of Exxon and Mobil in 1999

Argentina’s Black Market Peso Rate Tops 1,000 Per Dollar  (Bloomberg)
Was near half that level in July…

10/11/2023

Chinese Gold Versus World Market Surges Again After Holiday Week (Bloomberg)
Second-highest premium on record compared to the international benchmark

U.S. banks need TARP 2.0: A trapped asset relief program (American Banker)
Privatize profits and socialize losses

Consumers starting to buckle for first time in a decade, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns  (CNBC)
Lag effects becoming realized…

10/10/2023

Americans Are Still Spending Like There’s No Tomorrow (WSJ)
Concerts, trips and designer handbags are taking priority over saving for a home or rainy day..

Israel’s central bank sells $30 billion in foreign reserves after shekel slides to seven-year low (CBNC)
The shekel had already weakened by 10% so far in 2023

Gold Holds Gains as Markets Mull Rate Pause, Middle East Crisis  (Bloomberg)
Precious metal may have already seen its quarterly low

10/9/2023

America is now paying more in interest on its record $33 trillion debt than on national defense (Yahoo)
Who holds the IOUs..

Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds (WSJ)
Testing the bond market..

Attack on Israel likely to boost appeal of gold, safe-haven assets  (Reuters)
Hedge against international turmoil

10/6/2023

Treasury rout bolsters view that Fed will call time on rate rises (FT)
Market odds of another increase by year-end drop to 30%

How a CBDC Created Chaos and Poverty in Nigeria (Mises)
A failed experiment..

Flexport Plans to Lay Off 30% of Workforce  (WSJ)
Global shipping demand is declining

10/5/2023

The congressional push to create $650 billion (Axios)
$650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)

Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble (Bloomberg)
Duration exposure fuels painful losses

Mortgage demand drops to the lowest level since 1996, as interest rates head toward 8%  (CNBC)
Refis are down too..

10/4/2023

3.5-Day Workweek? (Forbes)
Jamie Dimon Predicts AI Could Make It Happen

Gold Glitters In China’s Financial Storm (Forbes)
Sales of bars and coins are up 30% compared to last year

If The Bond Markets Aren’t Scaring You Yet, They Should Be  (Politico)
Yield-mageddon in the US 

Recommended Headline News & Opinion
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10/3/2023

America’s Looming Debt Spiral (Bloomberg)
Short video on the problem

When Will the Fed Stop Raising Rates? That’s the Trillion-Dollar Question for Bond Investors (WSJ)
Lock-in higher rate long term debt?

Welcome to the Great Internet Splintering (Market Insider)
New, healthier era of social media

Recommended Headline News & Opinion
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10/2/2023

Comex Gold Ends the Quarter 3.80% Lower at $1848.10 — Data Talk (WSJ)
Year-to-date it is up $28.40 or 1.56%

The debt-fueled bet on US Treasuries that’s scaring regulators (FT)
Selling futures and buying bonds

Like crypto or not, central banks need to prepare, BIS innovate head says (Blockworks)
Tokenization could be revolutionary

Recommended Headline News & Opinion
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9/29/2023

200 Years of Global Gold Production, by Country (ELEMENTS)
Great visual

Talk about striking gold! Britain’s oldest coin hoard is discovered in Buckinghamshire dating back 2,173 years (Dailymail)
Made in 150BC

aXedras and the Royal Canadian Mint collaborate on digitalization of provenance and product integrity (Newswire)
More trends of digitalization of gold

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Daily headline news and opinion

––World Gold Council/Staff/8-1-2023

“Central bank buying slowed in Q2 but remained resolutely positive. This, combined with healthy investment and resilient jewellery demand, created a supportive environment for gold prices.”

USAGOLD note: Bar and coin demand increased by 6% year over year in the second quarter.

Chart courtesy of World Gold Council

Financial Times/Colby Smith/7-26-2023

“Nothing in the policy statement or the press conference led me to doubt our view that this will be the last hike of the cycle,” said Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. “The consumer is slowing, jobs are slowing, inflation is slowing and all those big pieces of the economy have been coming in line with our expectations.”

USAGOLD note: The tussle between an adamant Fed and a dubious Wall Street continues ………

Bloomberg/John Authers/7-27-2023

“The Fed promised us a nonevent and it delivered — give or take a few comments. The Federal Open Market Committee did indeed raise the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to the highest level in 22 years at 5.5%. But as that outcome had been rated a 99% probability when Wednesday dawned, it came as no surprise.”

USAGOLD note:  We are not yet out of the inflation woods……Gasoline prices, says Authers, could trigger a surprise summer wake-up call.

Science Alert/Adrian Dyer/7-25-2023

“Over the centuries between these two events, currency demonstrating a symbolic link between honey and money is surprisingly common. In a recent study in Australian Coin Review, I trace the bee through numismatic history – and suggest a scientific reason why our brains might naturally draw a connection between the melliferous insects and the abstract idea of value.”

USAGOLD note: All about the connections between bees, honey, and money……

MarketWatch/Vivien Lou Chen/8-1-2023

“Just a day after the Treasury Department released a $1 trillion borrowing estimate for the third quarter, questions are being raised about the extent to which foreign and domestic buyers can continue to keep up their demand for U.S. government debt.”

USAGOLD note: This article details some of the problems accompanying this enormous issuance of government debt. It was published before Fitch’s downgrade announcement.

MarketsInsider/George Glover/8-2-2023

“August is usually the quietest month of the year for the stock market. But Fitch shattered any sense of summer calm last night when it slashed the US government’s credit score, in what could end up being a massive blow to President Joe Biden’s economic track record.”

USAGOLD note: Biden’s track record wasn’t exactly glowing before the Fitch announcement. A good many analysts have warned of late that the government’s fiscal stance – and that includes both the Biden administration and Congress – has become a danger to the economy and financial markets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped from 4.01% to 4.105% after the Fitch announcement.

MishTalk/Mish Shedlock/7-31-2023

“Gold has big daily drop following Fed and ECB announcements. The pullback lasted 2 days before a big blast higher. In the wake of fluff announcements by the Fed and ECB in which no reporters asked any difficult questions, gold took a mini-dump then surged twice as much two days later.”

USAGOLD note: Mish posts a thumbnail analysis of the current gold market and concludes: “If you have faith in central banks, sell your gold. Otherwise, I suggest hanging onto it.” Worth a visit……

Zero Hedge/Crescat Capital/7-23-2023

“Following the COVID era, we have entered a period of fiscal dominance among major developed economies. Hence, the escalating debt burden is already near historical levels and compounding at an alarming pace. To sustain the current government spending deluge, we believe it is inevitable that the Fed and other monetary authorities reassume their fundamental role as the primary financiers of government debt.”

USAGOLD note: Crescat predicts “capital will divert away from US Treasuries and flow into gold.”

Chart courtesy of VisualCapitalist.com

Goehring & Rozencwajg/7-24-2023

“Incredibly, by 2016 commodity prices had sold off to such an extent that they were the most radically undervalued in 120 years. The only times that came close were in 1929, 1969, and 1999. Following every prior period of radical undervaluation, commodity and natural-resource related investments dramatically outperformed, both in absolute and relative terms.”

USAGOLD note: In this in-depth study, Goehring & Rozencwajg say the coming rally and eventual overvaluation in commodities will likely be led by gold.

MarketsInsider/Zahra Tayeb/7-25-2023

“John Hussman is doubling down on his dire outlook for US stocks, even after the market defied recession predictions to notch some impressive gains this year.”

USAGOLD note: Hussman is not impressed by the stock market rally thus far this year. “Yes, this is a bubble  in my view,” he says. “Yes, I believe it will end in tears.”

Yahoo! Finance/Jeannine Mancini/7-31-2023

“Based on a survey conducted by Lansons, it was found that less than 10% of the entire American population has invested in alternative assets. However, among the younger generations, there is a more significant interest in alternative investments, with 30% of Gen Z and 25% of millennials either investing in such assets or possessing knowledge of platforms that facilitate these investments.”

USAGOLD note: One of the alternatives mentioned is gold.

Hussman Funds/John Hussman/July 2023

“There is a particular “setup” that we’ve historically found to be associated with abrupt “air pockets” and ‘free falls’ in the S&P 500. It combines hostile conditions in all three features most central to our investment discipline: rich valuations, unfavorable market internals, and extreme overextension. The last time we observed this combination to a similar degree was in November 2021, shortly before the S&P 500 lost a quarter of its value. The S&P 500 remains lower than it was then. Despite enthusiasm about the market rebound since October, I remain convinced that this initial market loss will prove to be a small opening act in the collapse of the most extreme yield-seeking speculative bubble in U.S. history.”

USAGOLD note: Hussman tells in detail how the stock market is breaking down and why it should be taken seriously.

LinkedIn/David Rosenberg/7-27-2023

“The fact that Fed-induced curve inversions have presaged recessions 100% of the time in the past is never respected. Always a case of hope triumphing over experience. Thing is — very rarely do recessions occur in the same month as the onset of the inverted yield curve. There are lags, and that typically can be a year or longer. Think back to 2007. But like the story of the boy who cried wolf, the wolf did show up in the end.”

USAGOLD note: A heads up from Rosenberg……

Recessions follow inverted yield curves with a lag
(Grey bars = recessions)

Source. US Federal Reserve [FRED]

Bloomberg/Renjeetha Pakiam/7-20-2023

“The metal is benefiting from loose monetary policy, low real yields, record inflows into exchange-traded funds and increased asset allocation, the bank’s analysts including Aakash Doshi and Ed Morse said in a report. Gold is expected to climb to an all-time high in the next six-to-nine months, and there’s a 30% probability it’ll top $2,000 an ounce in the next three-to-five months.”

USAGOLD note: The report points out that prices for the metal have already posted new highs in every other G-10 and major emerging market currency this year. Silver, it says, will benefit from “demand for a store of wealth.

Money Week/Dominic Frisby/7-20-2023

“The experience of beauty, whether derived from nature, art, music or even mathematics, correlates with activity in the emotional brain, the medial orbitofrontal cortex. Beauty has long been associated by philosophers with truth and purity – also qualities commonly associated with gold. Our instinct for gold and the emotions it inspires from beauty to desire are basic.”

USAGOLD note: Frisby examines mankind’s age-old attachment to gold.

CNBC/Charmaine Jacob/7-22-2023

“Oil demand bounced back to pre-Covid levels quickly, “but supply is having a tougher time in catching up,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum, adding that the only factor moderating prices right now is the fear of a looming recession.”

USAGOLD note: Rising oil prices could have a profound effect on the inflation rate as it settles in, assuming McMonigle is right.

MarketsInsider/Huileng Tan/7-31-2023

“While China might not be happy with American dominance  — in global politics, culture, or the financial system — Beijing is far from openly advocating for the ‘redback,’ another name for the yuan, to immediately replace the greenback.

USAGOLD note: Important insights at the link……

Bloomberg/Liz Capo McCormick/7-31-2023

“The US Treasury is set this week to begin a ramp-up in issuance of longer-dated securities that’s likely to stretch into next year, forced by a rapidly deteriorating budget deficit and soaring interest rates.”

USAGOLD note: The new bond sales come at a time when the Fed, Japan, and China are no longer buyers. What happens if support doesn’t materialize?

Global Times/Staff/7-25-2023

“Among the gold consumption, the purchase of gold bars jumped 30.12 percent year-on-year to 146 tons in the first six months, while that of gold jewelry reached 368 tons, up 14.82 percent from the same period last year. Gold used for industrial and other purposes declined 7.65 percent to 40 tons, the data showed.”

USAGOLD note: China’s appetite for gold grows as its middle classes gain wealth……Note the strong gain in bullion bar demand, a sign that Chinese investors are buying gold as a safe haven.

MarketWatch/Frances Yue/7-21-2023

“When a global slowdown has been lacking, the dollar has declined at a per annum rate of -1% whereas gold has gained 10% per annum…” – Tim Hayes, Ned Davis Research, chief global investment strategist

USAGOLD note: Ned Davis Research recently downgraded the U.S. dollar from neutral to bearish and upgraded gold from neutral to bullish. It points to an important technical indicator as further evidence of the changing dollar-gold scenario. In January, gold achieved “a golden cross, when its 50-day moving average rose above the index’s 200-day moving average, while the U.S. dollar saw a death cross.” Since the January crossover, gold is up 7.75%, and the US dollar index is down 2.2%.

Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs • • • Click to enlarge

Bloomberg/Steve Matthews, Kyungjin Yoo and Dave Merrill/7-25-2023

“After more than a year of solid agreement that higher interest rates were needed, differences among policymakers have started to deepen as they weigh when to stop hiking and how long to keep rates elevated.”

USAGOLD note: The politics of economics at the Fed broken down. A good lead in to today’s rate decision and press conference……

Barron’s/Brian Swint/7-23-2023

“To the contrary, inflation is likely to be a more persistent threat than it has been in decades, owing to the long list of powerful forces that have driven prices higher, and the limits of central-bank efforts to control it.”

USAGOLD note: Anyone who lived through the decade of the 1970s can tell you that claims that inflation had been tamed were often wildly overblown.

Inflation rate 1970s

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

LBMA/James Steele/July 2023

“Every independent central bank in the world holds at least some amount of bullion. Gold’s status as a currency is therefore borne out by the fact that bullion is counted as part of a central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. It is the only commodity-currency to have survived as money into the electronic age. This implies gold’s unique monetary status.”

USAGOLD note: Steele provides historical background on gold’s role as a central bank reserve asset and offers seven monetary functions that encourage it. All seven have to do with gold’s status as the ultimate store of value and final means of payment.

MarketsInsider/George Glover/7-29-2023

“The dollar is one of the few assets that’s gone down, rather than up this year – and analysts are warning that there could be bleaker times ahead for the greenback now that the Federal Reserve looks set to wind down its interest-rate hiking campaign.”

USAGOLD note: The most important data, as pointed out in this article, provide reasons for lowering rates which would continue to fuel the dollar’s slide against other currencies.

ZeroHedge-Bloomberg/Simon White/7-28-2023

“Federal Reserve rate hikes have had minimal disinflationary impact in this cycle, opening the door to a re-acceleration in inflation. At first glance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has little in common with the Wizard of Oz. But in one respect he may: pulling levers that do nothing.”

USAGOLD note: Yet another under-the-radar analysis predicting more inflation down the road – second coming……

MarketWatch/Greg Robb/7-21-2023

“Wall Street economists seem convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week and that this increase will turn out to be the final hike of this cycle. But they also don’t expect to hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell say so, at least not yet.”

USAGOLD note: Several analysts have come forward over the past month to state their belief that inflation is down but not out – in a lull rather than full remission. If that proves to be the case, the Fed could be chasing the inflation rate for many months to come.

International Man/Nick Giambruno/July 2023

“Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history? The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the 30-year Treasury collapsed over 39%. Many other bonds did even worse.”

USAGOLD note: Giambruno warns that “It may be tempting to think the worst is over for bonds – it’s not. As you’ll see, the pain for bondholders is just starting.” The result he says will be a mass movement over time to reliable stores of value.

Yahoo!Finance/Matthew Fox/7-20-2023

“It turns out that during the period of near-zero interest rates, especially leading up to the pandemic and during the pandemic, corporations took advantage and refinanced a ton of their liabilities into long-term, low-rate, fixed debt.”

USAGOLD note: How Wall Street analysts, with an ocean of data sources available to them, missed this important trend is equally strange.

Zero-Hedge-Bloomberg/Alyce Anders/7-28-2023

“With the labor market strong and the consumer ebullient, price increases are likely to continue to be effortless. S&P Global’s preliminary survey for July noted its output price index has been a reliable leading indicator of CPI — anticipating the easing of US CPI to 3% in June. But its recent fluctuation suggests further declines in CPI below 3% may prove tricky as firms seek to pass through higher costs and interest payments to customers.”

USAGOLD note: The current situation has the feel of the run-up to the inflation surge in 2020. Then purchasing managers were warning of price increases before the general public became aware of the burgeoning problem.

Bloomberg/Anchalee Worrachate/7-25-2023

“Markets should brace for a deep US recession that warrants a dramatic one percentage-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, warned DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Sherman.”

USAGOLD note: Sherman thinks that the Fed will be slow to act in the face of a hard recession and then be forced to “unleash the biggest cut since the pandemic struck.” We should add that Doubletree’s Jeff Gundlach consistently has been among the most bearish Wall Street commentators.

TrustNet/Editor/7-18-2023

“Gold is on track to hit a new record high of $2,225 per ounce by this time next year, according to Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree. However, if things go right, the precious metal may shoot even higher to $2,500 per ounce.”

USAGOLD note: Wisdom Tree sees a convergence of influences taking gold to all-time highs.

Bloomberg/Jeremy Hill and Lucca De Paoli/7-18-2023

“It feels different than prior cycles. You’re going to see a lot of defaults.” – Richard Cooper, Cleary Gottlieb

USAGOLD note: The possibility of a full domino effect cannot be ruled out, in our view, and it could begin anywhere without warning.

MarketWatch/Steve Goldstein/7-19-2023

“Kevin Muir, a former institutional trader that blogs at The Macro Tourist, said China didn’t like what they heard from Yellen so the country decided to send a message. ‘China has $3.2 trillion in FX reserves. Their biggest position will be the U.S. dollar and don’t think they will be shy about using it,’ he says.”

USAGOLD note: A long-held market fear resurfaces – China weaponizing its dollar reserves. It can sell or swap for gold or other currencies. It can continue to refrain from buying U.S. Treasures.

China US dollar reserves

Chart courtesy of Trading Economics

MarketWatch/Brett Arends/7-15-2023

The first thing is that over the past century including some gold in your portfolio alongside stocks and bonds has genuinely added value. It has produced higher average returns, less volatility and fewer of those disastrous ‘lost decades’ where your portfolio ended up whistling Dixie.”

USAGOLD note: Arends has never been an ardent supporter of gold, but in this article he reluctantly makes concessions.… To make a long story short, a portfolio that includes a 10% gold diversification over the long run does better than one that doesn’t. How would a 20% diversification look?

MarketWatch/Steve Goldstein/7-18-2023

“Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, trimmed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% — well below the 54% median among forecasters who participated in the last Wall Street Journey survey.”

USAGOLD note: Hatzius, in fact, believes the economy is going to grow “albeit below trend pace.”

The Heritage Foundation/EJ Antoni/7-13-2023

“The U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is one of America’s greatest strengths, but President Joe Biden seems hellbent on toppling the dollar from its throne through both his domestic and foreign policy agenda. Americans need to pay attention because we’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well.”

USAGOLD note: The Biden Administration is only one of the players undermining the dollar. Congress is equally culpable as is the Federal Reserve which is quick to turn to money printing at the first signs of a crisis.

Zero Hedge/Tyler Durden/7-17-2023

“Gold is definitely something that’s coming back as a theme… we are seeing this more and more in the data that especially the countries that are not geopolitically aligned to the US are shunning Treasuries and shunning the dollar and they are buying gold instead.”

USAGOLD note: Pozsar elaborates on the evolving monetary system and the dollar and gold’s role in it.

Yahoo!Finance-Bloomberg/Olivia Rainmonde/7-14-2023

“Investors have pulled more money out of US junk-bond funds than from any other asset class so far this year, according to a report by Bank of America.”

USAGOLD note: It’s not just the return on your money, but the return of your money that’s important.

Bloomberg/Mohamed A. El-Erian/7-1 7-2023

“Whether you are examining the evolution of the US economy or the impact of monetary policy, one of the noteworthy developments this year is not what has happened but rather what has not.”

USAGOLD note: It’s been a year of surprises and unexpected serenity…… El-Erian offers food for thought in this Bloomberg piece.

Bloomberg/Alice Atkins and Carter Johnson/7-16-2023

“The greenback’s worst slump since November has a bevy of strategists and investors saying a turning point is finally at hand for the world’s primary reserve currency. If they’re right, there will be far-reaching consequences for global economies and financial markets.”

USAGOLD note: Whatever it does against other currencies in the short term, the dollar’s history over the long run has been one of steady debasement and loss of purchasing power, and that era, in our view, is far from over.

The purchasing power of the US dollar and gold
(%, 1971-present)

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Reuters/Arpan Chaturvedi/7-15-2023

“India has signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates that will allow it to settle trade in rupees instead of dollars, boosting India’s efforts to cut transaction costs by eliminating dollar conversions.”

USAGOLD note: Is cutting transactional costs the real reason for this new arrangement?

Credit Bubble Bulletin/Doug Noland/7-14-2023

Cartoon courtesy of MichaelPRamirez.com

Selected quotes

“I’m challenged to find significant evidence Fed policy is ‘starting to bite hard.’ My analytical framework prioritizes financial conditions. Generally, tighter market liquidity conditions presage tighter lending, slower Credit growth and weakened demand. Markets lead economic performance – not vice versa. Booming markets generate self-reinforcing liquidity, loose conditions and asset inflation, which work to bolster confidence and boost spending.”

 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

“I see inflation ebbing and flowing – with much more flow than ebb over time. But what conventional analysis sees as the previous inflation normal, I view as aberrational. Inflation risk remains highly elevated in New Cycle Dynamics. This exceptionally hot weekend will remind us of newfound climate hostilities. And there is deglobalization, with heightened China tensions adding to trade, supply-chain and pricing uncertainties.”

 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

“Bubbling markets readily disregard myriad stability risks. Inflation is seen in full retreat, with policy tightening having about run its course. Recession risks have dissipated. It’s difficult for me to imagine a backdrop of greater stability risk. Inflation risk remains highly elevated. The risk of bursting financial Bubbles is extreme. Fed rate increases have failed to tighten market conditions, with speculation and speculative leverage becoming only more acute. And fearless markets are more confident than ever that underlying fragilities ensure central bankers won’t risk bursting Bubbles.”

Oaktree/Howard Marks/7-10-2023

“Everyone can study economics, finance, and accounting and learn how the markets are supposed to work. But superior investment results come from exploiting the differences between how things are supposed to work and how they actually do work in the real world.”

USAGOLD note: The wisdom of Howard Marks at the link……

Zero Hedge/Simon White/7-11-2023

“Where things could go seriously awry for stocks is if Powell’s immediate response to re-accelerating inflation is to go ‘full Volcker. But I find that unlikely. Volcker was path dependent: we had to go through Arthur Burns and William Miller to get to the point where their successor had a mandate to cause a deep recession to neuter inflation. Powell isn’t there yet. On top of that, next year is an election year, and resisting cutting rates as the economy weakens might be the closest the Fed gets to hiking.”

USAGOLD note: White is Bloomberg’s macro strategist. He says, “We have several of the same dynamics today as in the 1970s.”

Financial Times/Derek Brower, James Politi and Amanda Chu/7-11-2023

Four decades after Ronald Reagan rejected large-scale US government intervention in the economy, Biden is embracing it wholeheartedly with a raft of subsidies for domestic producers in strategic sectors, in the hope of creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs.

USAGOLD note: We do believe the fiscal madness unfolding in Washington will increase global gold demand, and ultimately translate to the price.

National Post/Chris Knight/7-10-2023

“A man in Kentucky has harvested a fortune in gold from his cornfield, after stumbling across a cache of more than 700 gold coins dating back to the Civil War era.”

USAGOLD note: To give you an idea of the value, the hoard includes eighteen 1863 $20 Liberty gold coins with an estimated auction value of $100,000 each.

Yahoo!Finance-The Economist/Buttonwood/7-13-2023

“What is going on? Working out the right price for gold is a difficult task. Gold bugs point to the metal’s historical role as the asset backing money, its use in fine jewellery, its finite supply and its physical durability as reasons to explain why it holds value. After all, at first glance the phenomenon is a strange one: in contrast to stocks and bonds, gold generates no cash flows or dividends.”

USAGOLD note: Since the turn of the century, gold has responded most directly to crisis. Much of this Economist article focuses on gold as an inflation hedge. We feel misses the point about gold,i.e. why people buy it. Too, we do not see where it sheds much light on the mystery of gold prices.

MarketWatch/Peter Morici/7-11-2023

“The Federal Reserve’s recent pausing of interest-rates hikes opens America’s door to stagflation.… A rate-hike pause now with promises of two more quarter-point interest rate increases in the future reflected the split among Fed policymakers between hawks and doves, rather than effective inflation-fighting policy.”

USAGOLD note: Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland, sees inflation as staying in the 4% range while economic growth runs at less than 2%. That, he says, is stagflation.

Reuters/Marc Jones/7-9-2023

“An increasing number of countries are repatriating gold reserves as protection against the sort of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, according to an Invesco survey of central bank and sovereign wealth funds published on Monday.”

USAGOLD note: There has been a notable decline in London vaulted gold, according to the LBMA. Gold repatriation removes bullion from the leasing pool, which has acted as a drag on the gold price in the past. “We did have it held in London,” said one central banker, “but now we’ve transferred it back to [our] own country to hold as a safe haven asset and to keep it safe.”

Goehring & Rozencwajg/6-23-2023

“We think that gold has entered into a new phase of this bull market. It probably started in the third and fourth quarter of last year, and it really revolves around central banks’ behavior as much as anything else. I think it’s going to propel gold much much higher in this leg of the bull market.” – Adam Rozencwajg

USAGOLD note: In this interview, Rozencwajg reiterates the firm’s long-term target for gold at $12,000 to $15,000. “It has always been our long-term forecast on gold,” he said.

MarketsInsider/Zahra Tayeb/7-10-2023

“Argentina’s only way out of its deepening debt trap is adopting the dollar as its currency, top economist Steve Hanke said.”

USAGOLD note: If Argentina replaces the peso with the dollar, it will give up its economic sovereignty. The frontrunner in Argentina’s upcoming election, Javier Milei, also believes Argentina should dollarize.

International Man/Nick Giambruno/7-2023f

Cartoon courtesy of MicahelPRamirez.com

“The US government’s total failure in Afghanistan—the longest war in American history—signifies a crucial moment and turning point in world history. The Soviet Union collapsed about two years after the Red Army was defeated and withdrew from Afghanistan. As we approach the second anniversary of the American retreat, could a similar fate be in store for the US?”

USAGOLD note: Giambruno believes “an ocean of money’ will pour difficult to produce monetary alternatives – namely gold and bitcoin – as the dollar loses its “privileged position.”

Yahoo!Finance/Melissa Lawford/7-9-2023

‘The Governor of the Bank of England identified changing demographics as one of two biggest problems facing the UK and similar countries in the years ahead, along with stagnant productivity since the financial crisis.”

USAGOLD note: The demographic imbalance is often overlooked, but, as Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey points out, it remains among the top influences on the contemporary economy,

GoldBroker/Ronnie Stoeferle/7-4-2023

“Yes, I think [central bank gold buying] is going to accelerate. I think reserve management practices, the way central banks manage their foreign exchange reserves, is going to go through transformative change over the next five to ten years. There are a number of reasons for this. One reason is that geopolitics is a big theme again; we are living through a period of ‘great power’ conflict.” – Zoltan Pozsar

USAGOLD note: If you are in the mood for a deep dive into the complexities of global finance, you will find much to consider in this interview with Zoltan Pozsar. “I think gold is going to have a very special meaning, simply because gold is coming back on the margin as a reserve asset and as a settlement medium for interstate capital flows.” The old becomes the new.

MarketsInsider/Zahra Tayeb/7-7-2023

“It’s been a sentiment and momentum-driven market, I think rather devoid of the fundamentals. And at some point, the Fed’s tightening, which is unending, is going to break the back of something.” – David Rosenberg Rosenberg Research

USAGOLD note: In short, stocks are in a bubble……Rosenberg says the “next 12 months are going to be really rough.”

Bloomberg/Denitsa Tsekova, Carly Wanna and Lu Want/7-8-2023

“Up and down Wall Street, forecasters were caught flat-footed by how the first half of 2023 unfolded in financial markets. That seems to have rattled their faith in what the winning playbook for the rest of it should be.”

USAGOLD note: This is a generation of Wall Streeter’s that was taught not to fight the Fed almost as religious dogma. But a new wave of investors out in the financial hinterlands is fighting the Fed with unpredictable results.

YAHOOFinance-Reuters/Yoruk Bahceli and Dhara Ranasinghe/7-7-2023

“Government bond markets from Europe to the United States and Australia are in a tailspin as the prospect of higher interest rates sparks a rout in longer-dated bonds, hurting investors seeking higher returns after a lacklustre first half.”

USAGOLD note: Two-year Treasuries and 10-year Treasuries broke through important levels on Friday, and the TLT ETF plunged to its lowest levels in over a decade.

Financial Times/Gillian Tett/7-6-2023

“[Shared Economic Prosperity] also argues that functional unemployment rate is above 20 per cent — not the official 3.7 per cent — because so many “jobs” are deeply insecure and low-paying. If so, that might explain the gloom.”

USAGOLD note: Tett probes what might be behind American gloom. Perhaps the headline statistics do not reflect what’s really going on in the US economy.

Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRus.com • • • Click to enlarge

Value Walk/Eric Gozenput/6-30-2023

“The latter part of 2022 saw Western investors offloading bullion while their Asian counterparts capitalized on lower prices, buying jewelry, coins, and bars. This period saw more than 527 tons of gold leaving New York and London vaults, with Chinese gold imports peaking at a four-year high. In the East, gold is often the primary form of savings and wealth preservation. For millions, gold remains the ‘basic form of saving,’ an approach inherited from their ancestors, with the understanding that gold retains its purchasing power over time.”

USAGOLD note: As Asian wealth grows, so does its share of the above-ground gold stockpile. Since the 2008 financial crisis, China and India have accumulated nearly 36,000 tonnes of the metal, according to GoldChartsRUs data. As this article points out, Asia accounts for 60% of global gold demand annually and China/India 50%.

Yahoo!Finance/Filip DeMott/7-7-2023

“The gold stockpiling comes amid the country’s bid to erode the dollar’s global dominance as well as growing economic and geopolitical uneasiness. Meanwhile, other central banks around the world are buying up gold too. In 2022, demand for the yellow metal skyrocketed, and the trend has continued into this year with first-quarter purchases up 176% annually.”

USAGOLD note:  China now holds 2330 tonnes of gold in reported official reserves. The official data, though, does not reflect gold held at its state banks. Yahoo cites China’s bid to “erode” the global dollar hegemony and as a hedge against “growing economic and geopolitical uneasiness.”

Bloomberg/Molly Smith and Stephanie Flanders/6-29-2023

“[Bloomberg economist Anna] Wong says that, while Biden’s signature economic legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law—are investments that will play out in the long term, short-term costs of higher inflation and recession risks may offset the benefits, and even outweigh them.”

USAGOLD note: The Biden Administration will no doubt put considerable pressure on the Fed to quash a pre-election recession, but given the lag factor and more hikes down the road, time will tell whether the die has already been cast.

Financial Times/Howard Marks/7-10-2023

“However, once in a while, markets go so high or so low that the argument for action is compelling and the probability of being right is high. When markets are at these extremes, the key to generating superior future investment returns lies in understanding what is responsible for the current conditions.”

USAGOLD note: Marks explains how the ordinary investor can gain from “exploiting the differences between how things are supposed to work and how they actually do in the real world.” An important read at the link……

Yahoo!Finance-CNBC/Filip DeMott/6-30-2023

“Sentiment is so great that a bump in the road could turn out to be a landmine. So far the trend is going. Am I skeptical? Yes.” – Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations

USAGOLD note: A sense of unease lingers among Wall Street professionals despite the first half surge.

Bloomberg/Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal and Alex Harris/6-30-2023

“And so again, you will not have to run with as much FX reserves. And so you know, this is going to have feedback effects on demand for Treasuries in general and on the margin.” – Zoltan Pozsar, Ex Uno Plures

USAGOLD note: An intriguing retrospective of Pozsar’s career and an overview of his Bretton Woods III theory at the link above. Pozsar, who recently departed Credit Suisse previously held positions at the New York Fed and the IMF. He has now launched his own enterprise, Ex Uno Plures

Financial Times/Mary McDougall and Kate Martin/7-1-2023

“This could be more of an old fashioned cycle that lingers for a few years with inflation high but policymakers don’t come to the rescue.” – Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer, Pimco

USAGOLD note: Sounds like Pimco is worried about a 1970s-style stagflation. According to FT,  the fund has become more defensive, more liquid.

MarketsInsider/Filip DeMott/6-30-2023

“China’s state banking system is the main way Beijing hides its reserves, [former Treasury official Brad] Setser said. That includes state commercial lenders like the Bank of China, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China or ICBC, China Construction Bank, and the Agricultural Bank of China as well as policy banks like the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China.”

USAGOLD note: Likewise, many gold market analysts believe China has significantly larger gold reserves than what it reports. These, too, they say, are housed in its state banking system.

Blain’s Morning Porridge/Bill Blain/7-3-2023

“When you think the sun is shining is the moment to be worried. I am more and more concerned the rapid rise in interest rates and increasingly tight lending conditions means pay-back for the many years of easy credit is about to come due. Ultra-low interest rates have made us complacent about corporate credit. A storm might be coming.”

USAGOLD note:  Blain’s latest has to do with complacency, or in his case the lack of it……He says a “storm of consequences this way comes.”

Bloomberg/Bill Dudley/6-29-2023

“Since last fall, the 10-year Treasury yield has remained in a narrow range near its current level of 3.75%. There’s little reason for it to stay there, and many reasons to expect it to move considerably higher.”

USAGOLD note: Dudley’s bond rout translates to higher rates…… He is the former head of the New York Federal Reserve. The TLT ETF, charted below, tracks the market value of US Treasuries. Dudley sees the yield on the 10-year Treasury going to at least 4.5 and “that’s a conservative estimate.”

TLT (Treasury Bond) ETF

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

Financial Times/Gillian Tett/6-29-2023

“Ronald Reagan embraced a policy swing towards free-market, free-trade policies. ‘Reaganomics’, as it came to be known, was defined in opposition to the previous postwar consensus that promoted paternalistic government guidance for markets and commerce. Now another Hegelian ‘antithesis’ is taking shape.”

USAGOLD note: We spend a great of time in the financial business talking about Fed policy while overlooking the impact of fiscal recklessness. “Investors,” says Tett, “ignore it at their own peril.” If the pendulum is indeed swinging to even looser fiscal policies, investors would be well-served considering a greater loss of purchasing power and the wisdom of a long-term inflation hedge.

Bloomberg/John Authers/6-29-2023

“For the time being, however, investors don’t seem to think that these higher rates will inflict an economic downturn. One explanation would be that the economy is resilient. A perhaps more plausible one is that investors still don’t buy that Fed policy is that restrictive.”

USAGOLD note: In our view, the Powell strategy is reminiscent of the 1970s wherein the lending rate rose but never enough to keep a lid on inflation until Paul Volcker became chairman of the Fed in 1979. As you can see in the chart below, the Fed pushed the Fed funds rate below the core PCE Index in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, and excepting the small blip higher in 2019, has pretty much kept it there since.

Fed Funds Rate and Core PCE Index

Chart courtesy of Trading View.com • • • Click to enlarge

TIME/Ray Dalio/6-26-2023

“I’m a global macro investor who has been betting on what’s going to happen for over 50 years. I’ve been through all sorts of events and cycles in all sorts of places over a long time which led me to study how these events and cycles work. In the process, I learned that I needed to study history to understand what’s going on and what’s likely to happen.”

USAGOLD note: Dalio explains in detail the thought processes that led him to believe that the world is on the brink of a “big financial crisis.” Dailo is a long-time advocate of gold ownership to weather such crises.

Yahoo!Finance/Josh Schafer/6-28-2023