Today’s top gold news and opinion

4/15/2024

New Sanctions on Russia to Drive Even More Metals Sales to China (Bloomberg)
Shanghai becomes the only major bourse to accept Russian metal

China’s gold markets under strain as horde of new buyers hunts for stable investment (SCMP)
Standing out as one of the few bets considered safe in China at present – with stocks, property and banking having lost their lustre in an environment of heightened uncertainty.

Gold Climbs Toward Record After Iran’s Strike Against Israel (Bloomberg)
Bullion has risen almost 20% since the middle of February.

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4/12/2024

What Does the Gold Price Breakout Mean? (Sprott)
75% of investment advisors have less than 1% exposure to gold

From Transitory to Debasement (Bytetree)
Asset allocators have been selling gold to the tune of 12 million ounces in 12 months…

Record-breaking gold highlights silver and platinum’s potential (Saxo)
The fear of missing out has created a strong buy-on-dip mentality among precious metal traders and investors.

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4/11/2024

Why Gold Prices Continue to Break Records (Bloomberg)
HSBC Chief Commodities Analyst James Steel discusses the gold market’s latest surge, particularly in China and India.

WisdomTree Gold Monthly (Wisdomtree)
Gold remains highly sensitive to rate cut probabilities…

Markets slash rate cut bets after US inflation rises to 3.5% (FT)
Figures for consumer prices and core inflation exceed expectations.

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4/10/2024

Silver may be even more exciting than the gold rally, says BNP Paribas Wealth Management (CNBC)
Edmund Shing, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for gold and silver prices.

Gold Ignores Negative News: Bulls Overexuberant? (Investing)
Signals of a strong economy and inflation – highlight gold’s property of retaining value.

‘Gold Could Rush All The Way To $3000/Oz With Silver Following (Forbes)
CITI said the prospect of lower interest rates, combined with flat demand for alternatives, geopolitical hedging, and financial buying to catch up with robust physical demand, working in sync to push the bullion complex higher.

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4/9/2024

The gold market hunts for answers behind bullion’s sudden surge (Yahoo)
Chinese consumers are worried about wilting returns in other assets and a depreciating currency.

Gold to surge to $2500, UBS predicts (Proactive Investors)
The “usual” ETF buyers have even remained net sellers.

‘They can’t get it wrong again’: Economists are increasingly uncertain about Fed rate cuts this year (CNBC)
The U.S. Federal Reserve is determined not to reduce interest rates too soon — and some economists say recent data has pushed a summer cut completely off the table.

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4/8/2024

How Much Are the Ultra Wealthy Really Investing in Gold? (Yahoo)
The average UHNWI holds about 2% of their net worth in gold.

Gold’s Stealthy Bull Market Confuses Even Its Fans (Bloomberg)
There was a time when every record high for gold was greeted with huge excitement from the “goldbug” community.Now? It’s sort of shrugged off.

The end of the gold standard and the beginning of the recovery from the Great Depression (CEPR)
2024 marks the 80th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference, which led to a major shift from the operation of the gold standard in the interwar years.

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4/5/2024

Zimbabwe to launch ‘gold-backed’ currency to replace collapsing dollar (FT)
Many in the southern African country prefer to keep their money at home..

With palladium oversold and platinum’s attractive fundamentals, both metals have upside (CME Group)
The fall in the palladium price has closed the differential with platinum, with the sister metals now priced near parity for the first time since 2018.

Einhorn Bets Big on Gold Amid Inflation, Eyes Value Stocks (Super News)
David Einhorn warns inflation may be reaccelerating, doubting the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than twice this year, if at all..

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4/3/2024

Is The Silver Market Breaking Out? (Investing Haven)
If silver rises above 26.50 USD/oz, and stays there for 5 to 8 consecutive days, silver’s breakout will be confirmed.

It makes sense to hold up to 20% of your portfolio in gold – State Street’s Milling-Stanley (KITCO)
“A portfolio can benefit from a long-term strategic allocation between 2% and 10%. And if you are experiencing or anticipating exceptional volatility in markets, then it makes sense financially to double your allocation to gold”

China eases restrictions on gold imports (Mining)
Around 1,500 tonnes of metal worth some $60 billion – equivalent to one-third of the world’s total supply – entering the country last year.

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4/2/2024

Gold Hits Another High—Despite A Strong Stock Market And Economy. Here’s Why. (Forbes)
$3.3 trillion. That’s the amount of gold held by investors, according to JPMorgan Chase.

Gold rallies, stocks ease as rate cut optimism fades (Reuters)
CPI, PPI and PCE – show improvement has leveled off, leading to questions about when and by how much the Fed cuts.

Commodities will rally when the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates: commodity strategist (Bloomberg)
In months before and after the start of easing cycles, raw material prices typically have positive returns.

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4/1/2024

Gold Hits New Record Prices (Again). Can The Precious Metal Continue To Climb? (CPM Group)
For the third time in March, Gold has hit a new record price.

Gold Futures Soar to Historic Highs: Eyes on Inflation, GDP Data for Next Move (Investing)
Central Banks had a big impact on gold and silver last week.

Currency risks will drive gold and silver sky-high by year-end – BMO Capital Markets (KITCO)
BMO sees gold prices averaging around $2250 an ounce in the fourth quarter.

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3/27/2024

Rate cuts are a good environment for gold investment, says World Gold Council’s Joe Cavatoni (CNBC)
World Gold Council Market Strategist, joins ‘Closing Bell: Overtime’ to discuss gold as the commodity nears all time highs.

GOLD INVESTING HANDBOOK FOR ASSET MANAGERS (World Bank)
The available empirical evidence suggests that some reserve managers respond to relative costs and returns by increasing the share of gold in their reserves when the expected return on financial assets such as US Treasury securities is low, while viewing gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks

Cocoa breaks $10,000 a tonne as shortages squeeze ‘out of control’ market (FT)
Cocoa futures traded as high as $10,080 in New York, more than double their price only two months ago, as traders warned a global shortage of cocoa beans would herald higher price tags for chocolate bars.

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3/26/2024

Is it a golden era for gold? (JP Morgan)
The metal has historically delivered attractive long-term returns, appreciating ~8% on an annual basis over the past 20 years.

Palladium demand supported for longer after new US emissions law changes (Heraeus)
The US has announced less severe emissions targets that will effectively allow for more catalysed car sales.

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin shares his views on the markets and the industry in 2024 (CNBC)
“There’s no country that’s going to bail America out. We’re going to right our own ship. There’s no IMF for the United States of America.”

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3/25/2024

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS (CNBC)
As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to alternative investments like bonds.

Exploring the catalysts for a PGM resurgence, with World Platinum Investment Council’s Edward Sterck (Investor Steam)
With the global pivot towards green technology, Platinum Group Metals such as platinum, palladium and rhodium will continue to play a central role in that transition.

Nicholas Frappell: Gold Price Targets for 2024 and Key Drivers to Watch (NASDAQ)
He described US$2,580 as a “much lower probability outcome,” saying it’s more like one in eight.

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3/22/2024

Gold takes a breather after record, Fed-fuelled rally (NASDAQ)
Traders are now pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, up from 65% before the rate decision.

Gold still has upside, despite new record high – BofA Securities (Investing)
BofA Securities still sees owning gold as one of its top trades for 2024.

U.S. Sues Apple, Alleges Tech Giant Exploits Illegal Monopoly (WSJ)
Justice Department says company makes it difficult for competitors to integrate with iPhone

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3/21/2024

Gold Jumps Above $2,200 an Ounce for First Time on Dovish Powell (Bloomberg)
Bullion has rallied around 11% since the middle of February.

Turks pile into the dollar, gold and stocks as 67% inflation savages ‘worthless lira’ (CNN)
“Since people haven’t seen inflation fall, they don’t trust the Turkish lira anymore”

Peter Krauth: Silver’s Time Will Come, Why Price Hasn’t Moved (Yet) (NASDAQ)
“I believe that you have numerous industrial consumers buying long futures contracts and/or buying silver ETFs, and then asking for delivery. When the futures contracts mature, they can stand for delivery.”

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3/20/2024

COT: Hedge funds buying expands from precious metals to copper and grains (Saxo)
A week that included the February US CPI, which topped forecasts, thereby reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates.

World Gold Council: Global Demand for Gold Will Drive Prices Up in 2024 (Swiss Resource Capital AG)
Interview with Market Strategist Joseph Cavatoni from the World Gold Council at PDAC 2024 in Toronto.

Idaho Senate Passes Bill to Authorize State Gold and Silver Reserves (Tenth Admendment Center)
Holding gold and silver in reserve would also create a pathway for Idaho to maintain financial independence should the U.S. dollar collapse, a very real possibility as the world moves away from the greenback as its reserve currency.

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3/19/2024

Does the gold:silver ratio point silver higher? (Heraeus)
Since 2006, the gold:silver ratio has averaged 60.09 during previous gold all-time-high peaks

To the Governor: Wisconsin Passes Bill to Repeal Sales Tax on Gold and Silver (Tenth Admendment Center)
Repealing sales taxes on precious metal bullion takes a step toward treating gold and silver as money instead of commodities.

Gold Shines As Homebuying Affordability Hits A Record Low (Forbes)
Historically, wars have been catalysts for gold price appreciation, and the current geopolitical landscape appears to be no exception.

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3/18/2024

“Silver the New Oil the Next Uranium” (Metal Investment Fourm)
Peter Krauth presents at Metals Investor Forum

MYTH OF GOLD: The Magic Metal Born from Stardust (WELT)
Gold is a metal like no other.

Gold Beans All the Rage With China’s Gen Z as Deflation Bites (Yahoo)
Weighing as little as one gram, the beans — and other forms of gold jewelry — are increasingly viewed as the safest investment bet for young Chinese in an era of economic uncertainty.

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3/15/2024

Here’s What You Need To Know About Gold’s Long-Term Bull Market (Forbes)
In theory, gold should follow the money supply fairly closely and it does.

Where does gold go now? (IG)
Both The Economist and Barron’s have featured covers with bullish market predictions, which could actually be a contrarian signal.

The Biggest Bank Heist in History Is Coming (Coinbase)
Regulators are permitting banks to tokenize financial assets such as bank deposits, U.S. Treasuries and corporate debt.

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3/14/2024

Gold Expected to Shine Amid Uncertainty (BMO)
Market participants typically dislike uncertainty…

Gold: Unique in every way (Wisdomtree)
Gold has exhibited equity-like returns of +8.5% per annum over the last 20 years with very minimal downside capture.

Bitcoin ETF Volumes Overtake Gold (Bytetree)
Bitcoin and gold assets combined amount to $237bn, and Bitcoin has a 31% growing share…

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3/13/2024

Gold’s mystery rally baffles analysts (FT)
Hopes of US rate cuts alone are unlikely to have driven latest leg higher, say strategists.

2024 is the year of the rate cut pivot — here’s when the world’s central banks will budge (CNBC)
As inflation loosens its grip in most economies, investors are closely monitoring interest rate decisions, with markets expecting a slew of rate cuts this year.

A guide to PGMs (Johnson Matthey)
Because the PGMs are highly recyclable and retain the same properties once recycled, the ‘urban mine’ of metal currently in use will continue to be a valuable source of these metals for many decades…

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3/12/2024

Gold’s rally could extend beyond the recent record highs (UBS)
Powell’s remarks supported our base case that the Fed will ease by 75 basis points over the course of 2024, most likely starting in June..

The Commodities Feed: Gold nears $2,200/oz (ING)
We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming US election.

PRECIOUS APPRAISAL (Heraeus)
It’s safe-haven vs. speculation as gold hits new highs…

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3/11/2024

Gold price: the latest predictions and our fund picks (Fidelity UK)
Markets currently attach a 56% probability to a cut in US rates after the US Federal Reserve’s policy setting meeting in June.

Bitcoin Is Unlikely to Match Gold’s Allocation in Investors’ Portfolios in Nominal Terms: JPMorgan (Coindesk)
Bitcoin is 3.7 times more volatile than gold.

Short-Term Options Have Become Popular in Commodities (CME Group)
Shorter-dated options in oil, soybeans and gold have all experienced record trading volume in the past year

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3/8/2024

A real estate CEO predicts hundreds of banks will fail or be taken over by 2026 (MSN)
Commercial real estate has been hit by declining asset prices, costlier borrowing, and tighter lending.

China’s Gold Splurge Reaches 16th Month as Prices Hit Record (Bloomberg)
Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose by about 390,000 troy ounces last month

What’s the Investment Case For Gold? (A Wealth Of Commonsense)
From 1971 to 2023, gold was up 7.9% per year

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3/7/2024

As gold scales all-time highs, Wall Street analysts say it has even further to go (CNBC)
Analysts at Citi describe themselves as “medium-term bullion bulls,” and see gold as a developed market “recession hedge.”

Gold is flying but miners are left in the dirt (FT)
Cheap targets abound, with some juniors reaching point where investment needs of projects look overwhelming..

Palladium climbs over 10% amid US policy maker’s remarks (Breaking The News)
Palladium skyrocketed 10.56%, selling for $1,028.15

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3/6/2024

Gold prices sit close to record highs; more rate cues awaited (Investing)
Powell is set to testify before Congress on Wednesday

Gold’s Performance Against U.S., Asian Equities the Past Century (CME Group)
Overall, gold has nearly held its own versus equities over the past 100 years..

BRICS Will Create Payment System Based on Digital Currencies and Blockchain: Report (Coindesk)
“Work will continue to develop the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, primarily regarding the use of currencies different from the US dollar”

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3/1/2024

Spring Festival sees healthy gold consumption…but what lies ahead? (World Gold Council)
Gold consumption during the longer-than-usual 2024 Chinese New Year’s (CNY) holiday was robust

Facing Facts: ‘Cautiously Bullish’ on Gold in 2024 (LBMA)
The geopolitical situation is expected to provide continuous support for gold.

Gold Vault (New York Fed)
Learn about the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s gold vault

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2/29/2024

Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions (Saxo)
Despite the rising ‘cost’ of holding a non interest paying gold position and the markets current obsession with AI related stocks and cryptos, the yellow metal has done well amid underlying demand for physical gold as well as the softer dollar.

PLATINUM PERSPECTIVES (World Platinum Investment Council)
With palladium oversold and platinum’s attractive fundamentals, both metals have upside.

NBP second biggest gold buyer in the world in 2023 (Warsaw Business Journal)
Gold’s popularity is evident among Polish households, with 13% holding savings in gold, rising to 48% among those aged 18-24.

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2/28/2024

Gold battles with 50-day SMA (Investing.com)
Momentum indicators turn neutral-to-positive

Gold back in favor as Gen Z buys (China Daily)
Gold jewelry processing and retail enterprises in China have also continuously innovated in the design of gold products, driving the increased demand for gold jewelry.

How Metal Demand will Skyrocket with Electric Vehicles & Electrification in 2024 (Noble 6)
Interview with Matt Watson, President of Precious Metals Commodity Management

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2/27/2024

Through the lens of gold (CME Group)
Is there a better way to view gold?

Golden Insights: Discover the Role of Gold in Modern Finance! (SWP)
The looming threat of an ‘everything crash’..

Is the Value of Gold Stable? (Econlib)
“An ounce of gold has always bought a good men’s suit”

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2/26/2024

Silver’s Golden Outlook (Vaneck)
The implied probability of the March rate cut dropped from 81.5% at the beginning of the year to 35% at the end of January.

US targets Russia with more than 500 new sanctions (BBC)
These include measures against Russia’s main card payment system, financial and military institutions

U.S. Mint Bullion Coin Revenue Falls 12.8% in FY 2023 (Coin News)
Across all gold, silver, and platinum bullion products, the United States Mint recorded sales of 22,009,000 ounces, marking a 24.5% increase compared to FY 2022.

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2/22/2024

Goldman Sachs sees boost to commodity prices from rate cuts (Investing.com)
“driven by an easier Fed stance (rather than by lower GDP growth)”

Central Banks’ Gold Buying Spree Explained (Yahoo Finance)
Panel of industry professionals examines the rapid rate at which central banks have been buying physical gold.

Nvidia Declares AI a ‘Whole New Industry’—and Investors Agree (WSJ)
Chip maker’s blockbuster results and outlook signal that spending on AI hasn’t cooled after a red-hot year.

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2/22/2024

Gold’s resilience despite recent ETF and futures selling (Saxo Bank)
Switzerland is the world’s biggest bullion refining and transit hub, and the 49% increase last month from a year ago was driven by robust sales to China and Hong Kong.

The safe haven appeal of gold amidst rising geopolitical risks in 2024 (IG Bank)
As data from GeoQuant shows, US political risk is also very tightly correlated with gold.

American Totalitarian “Crypto Dollar” May Come Before the Election (Brownstone Institute)
President Biden has Authorized the Exploration of a CBDC, and There Isn’t any Real Resistance in Congress.

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2/21/2024

Silver Set to Outperform in 2024 as Gold Loses Luster (Investing)
The gold-to-silver ratio, currently high, could drive demand for silver stocks if it indicates undervaluation.

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out (CNBC)
Central bank aggressive purchases, stagflation, and a global recession are catalysts that could drive the price of the yellow metal almost 50% higher.

The Federal Mega-Debt is Here to Stay (Mises)
Many Americans appear to have been lulled into accepting some variant of modern monetary theory

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2/20/2024

UK recession prompts spike in gold demand among investors, new data from The Royal Mint shows (IFA)
Following news of the UK economy entering a recession in the latter stages of 2023, The Royal Mint saw a 22% uplift in daily sales of gold last Thursday.

PRECIOUS APPRAISAL (Heraeus)
Sticky inflation swipes some of gold’s recent gains..

FBI Director Says China Cyberattacks on U.S. Infrastructure Now at Unprecedented Scale (WSJ)
Pre-positioned malware could be triggered to disrupt critical systems in the U.S.

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2/16/2024

Data breach affects 57,000 Bank of America accounts (American Banker)
TA data breach at Infosys McCamish, a financial software provider, compromised the name, address, date of birth, Social Security number, and other account information of 57,028 deferred compensation customers whose accounts were serviced by Bank of America.

Xi Jinping will make the West pay for China’s economic collapse (Telegraph)
It used to be said that when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. The same might now be true of Beijing…

Gold ETFs See $2.4 Billion in Outflows While Bitcoin ETFs Thrive (Crypto News)
Some speculate that the outflows from gold ETFs are not necessarily flowing directly into Bitcoin ETFs, but rather into US equities driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO).

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2/15/2024

China’s gold market in January: wholesale gold demand jumped, official gold reserves rose further (World Gold Council)
The PBoC reported the 15th consecutive gold purchase in January, adding 10t to their gold reserves and lifting the total to 2,245t.

The Central Bank Gold Rush: What It Means for You (Wealthion)
Sheds light on the strategic moves by central banks, the inflation hedge that gold presents, and the ongoing debate between gold and bitcoin as investment assets

Druckenmiller dumps Alphabet, Amazon and Broadcom but Nvidia remains largest holding (Market Watch)
Duquesne Family Office scoops up shares of beaten-down gold miners Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Corp.

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2/14/2024

The Myth of the Unchanging Value of Gold (Mises)
“They use gold as a measuring rod to keep the value of money stable. Why? Because the yellow metal keeps its intrinsic value better than anything on the planet.”

Gold slides below $2,000/oz for first time in two months after US inflation data (Reuters)
Traders bet Fed will not cut rates until June

Tokenization of Gold (Rooba.Finance)
Blockchain technology emerges as a game-changer, simplifying processes, reducing formalities, and ensuring the secure recording of investment data.

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2/13/2024

Gold Monthly: Assessing Fed policy and geopolitical risks (ING)
Gold has been trading in a narrow range so far this year amid a lack of clarity surrounding the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing cycle.

Year of the Dragon: ‘dragon baby’ frenzy to drive up gold jewellery sales by 30%, gold prices to hit record highs, industry players say (SCMP)
“Gold jewellery sales are expected to increase by at least 30 per cent in the Year of the Dragon because of the “dragon baby” rush and gold prices are expected to hit record highs”

Silver Set To Rise To $30 This Year, But Where Is Momentum? (Investing Haven)
A recent research on the physical silver market revealed a growing supply deficit, suggesting a silver price of $30 in 2024.

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2/12/2024

Asia Gold India flips to premium, Lunar New Year sparks buying in other hubs (Reuters)
China premiums at $36-$48/oz range this week

BRICS: 159 Countries Eyeing Russia’s New Payment System (Watcher Guru)
“Russia has a System for Transmitting Financial Messages (SPFS), which is an alternative to SWIFT. Similar infrastructure exists in some other countries. We are holding discussions on the interaction of such platforms, but here the interest and technical readiness of our partners are important”

Tech companies axe 34,000 jobs since start of year in pivot to AI (FT)
Microsoft, eBay and PayPal have each cut thousands of jobs since the start of the year

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2/092024

Digging into the Future: The Role of Precious Metals and Sustainable Industry Practices (NASDAQ)
Nornickel has engineered a prototype that has created quite a buzz: It’s a catalyst – a substance that can speed up chemical reactions without getting used up. The catalyst is based on palladium.

Palladium price drops below platinum for the first time since 2018 (Reuters)
Palladium demand hugely driven by the auto sector. Auto industry has been replacing palladium with cheaper platinum.

Perth Mint’s gold sales hit nearly four-year low in January, silver sales up (NASDAQ)
Sales of silver products last month stood at 769,326 ounces, their highest level since October 2023, but were still down 38% year-on-year.

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2/08/2024

Treasury secretary won’t say whether dept surveils Americans’ purchases: ‘Concerning’ (National Desk)
“Increasingly, we are hearing the federal government is suggesting banks search private financial transactions using highly partisan political terms or check to see if customers made purchases that could be associated with legal sales of firearms or even religious texts,” Rep. Wagner remarked.

Gold sales boom before Spring Festival despite price hike (China Daily)
In the Xi’an Tumen branch of China Minsheng Bank, sales of gold bars increased by 50 percent in January 2024 compared with the monthly average of the second half of 2023.

MAS third-largest buyer of gold globally in 2023 (CNA)
Singapore’s central bank is the third-largest buyer of gold globally last year, adding more than 77 tonnes of the yellow metal to its reserves.

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2/07/2024

Silver set for a ‘terrific year’ and could outperform gold to hit a 10-year high (CNBC)
Global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, which would mark the second-highest level on record…

Gold and silver turn defensive on reduced Fed rate-cut optimism (Saxo)
During the past week, the short-term rates market has gone from pricing in more than six 25 basis points US rate cuts this year to less than five.

Correlation Breakdown x 3 in Gold (Bullion Vault)
Over the 20 years to 2023, gold prices rose in 14 Januarys

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2/06/2024

Gold still set for all-time highs once this ‘tailwind’ kicks in, analysts say (Market Watch)
Yellow metal pulls back to one-week low as dollar strengthens

13 Reasons Why A Recession Is (Still) Around The Corner (Forbes)
“There’s no way you could read that Beige Book and not come to the conclusion that the economy isn’t already starting a recession”

Chinese investors buy gold as property and stock markets fall (FT)
‘Blistering’ demand from central banks also helps keep yellow metal above $2,000 per troy ounce

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2/05/2024

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS (CNBC)
As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to alternative investments like bonds.

A truly disruptive idea’: should we keep gold in the ground? (The Guardian)
There is enough gold in circulation today that we could stop targeted industrial gold mining and it would not affect the supply we need for its practical applications.

FBI warns of in-person precious metals scam (WTXL Tallahassee)
The scammers reportedly pose as U.S. government officials or tech support, claiming a person’s account has been hacked.

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2/02/2024

2024 Precious Metals Forecast Survey (LBMA)
Analysts reveal their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

Gold Outlook to Q4 2024: From one high to the next (Wisdomtree)
Looking at economists’ median expectations for 2024, the first rate cuts are likely to be delivered in Q2 2024 and we could see a total of 100 bps reduction by the year end

China gold purchases soar 30% on economic anxiety (Nikkei)
The People’s Bank of China’s 2023 net purchases totaled 225 tonnes, the highest since 1977..

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2/01/2024

Gold: Can the UAE outshine Switzerland? (Swiss Info)
While Switzerland offers a well-established financial system and an orderly, regulated market, the UAE provides a dynamic and forward-looking environment with a strong emphasis on innovation

Metals Sanctions Are Dividing the Biggest Traders and Banks (Bloomberg)
Russian aluminum now accounts for more than 90% of the live metal inventories for LME

Pundi X and Scoin Collaborate to Integrate Pax Gold (PAXG) from Paxos on XPOS, Facilitating Seamless Purchasing and Transition Between Physical and Digital Gold in the South African market (EQS News)
Users now have the unprecedented ability to effortlessly transition between the digital representation of gold and tangible gold coins on the XPOS platform

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1/31/2024

World’s biggest jeweller Pandora stops using mined silver and gold (NASDAQ)
Using recycled, instead of newly mined, metals cuts Pandora’s indirect CO2 emissions by around 58,000 tonnes annually

GLOBAL SILVER DEMAND FORECASTED TO RISE TO 1.2 BILLION OUNCES IN 2024 (Silver Institute)
Global silver demand is expected to rise 1 percent, pushed higher by the continued strength of industrial end-uses and a recovery in jewelry and silverware demand.

Which commodities will see the greatest price increases in 2024? (Mining Technology)
A GlobalData poll found that gold, lithium, and copper are among the commodities set to see the greatest price increases in 2024.

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1/30/2024

PRECIOUS-Safe-haven gold gains as Middle East worries mount (NASDAQ)
There is enough instability still in the Middle East to keep investors interested in gold as part of a safe-haven play

Record sales for global jewellery leader (Jeweller Magazine)
“While remaining vigilant in the current context, we enter 2024 with confidence, backed by our highly desirable brands and our agile teams.”
– BERNARD ARNAULT, LVMH

Nebraska Bill Would Eliminate Capital Gains Taxes on the Sale of Gold and Silver, Reject CBDC (Tenth Amendment Center)
Passage into law would relieve some of the tax burdens on investors and eliminate one barrier to using gold and silver in everyday transactions

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1/29/2024

China’s cratering markets drive mainstay retail investors away (Reuters)
“The logic is simple: stay away from all yuan assets”

How Digital Gold is democratising investments in precious metals (Financial Express)
Even Gen Z and millennials prefer to invest in Digital Gold since one can acquire smaller quantities from credible platforms such as MMTC-PAMP

BRICS & BITCOIN: THE DUO SET TO DETHRONE THE DOLLAR IN 2024 – MORGAN STANLEY (Cryptopolitan)
BRICS and Bitcoin are projected to harm the US dollar in 2024 as the globe moves away from the dollar

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1/26/2024

Gold & Yields: A Correlated Divergence (Hedgeye)
Gold has become a highly liquid financial asset..

Platinum for palladium substitution is embedded into automotive demand and unlikely to reverse swiftly (World Platinum Investment Council)
Platinum for palladium autocatalyst substitution is expected to reach 700 koz in 2024

The Green Spark: A Catalyst Transforming Water Into Energy Wealth (SciTechDaily)
A stable, reactive, and cost-effective ruthenium catalyst for sustainable hydrogen production through proton exchange membrane water electrolysis.

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1/25/2024

Americans Have Burned Through Their Savings (Newsweek)
More than a fifth of Americans are without any savings..

BRICS Making Good Progress On Their Golden Path (Forbes)
A more promising development has been the introduction of “gold checking accounts” in Russia%

Silver prices may be down, but they are not out; Bank of America sees potential in 2024 (Kitco)
SA bottoming out of the global economy in the coming months would support the silver market

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1/24/2024

UBS sees a 10% spike for gold this year as rate cut speculation swirls (CNBC)
“power of the Fed’s policy pivot should not be underestimated”

Unemployment rises in nearly a third of US states in December (Reuters)
Thirteen states and D.C. have unemployment rates at or above 4%

LBMA Precious Metals Market Volumes, December 2023 and the Year as a Whole, And Their Significance (NASDAQ)
Spot gold volumes were a multiple of 47 times global mine production

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1/23/2024

Gold: Will 2024 be a Breakout Year on Rate Cut Hopes? (CME Group)
After decades as net sellers, central banks became net buyers of gold after the financial crisis

Gold slides on trimmed US rate cut bets, rallying equities (Reuters)
Market sees 41.6% chance of a March rate cut

PRECIOUS METALS FORECASTS 2024 : Ross Norman Metals Daily, London (LinkedIn)
GOLD = Average $2166 High $2300 Low $2000

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1/22/2024

Moody’s points to further pain after surge in corporate defaults (FT)
“High funding costs, together with tighter financing conditions . . . prompted a rise in corporate defaults during 2023”

Bitcoin Will Never Be ‘Money’ Precisely Because It’s Nothing Like Gold (Forbes)
T”In reality, money is quiet. Or should be. Good money is never talked about, nor are returns written about with glee.”

US Prepares Rule Forcing Banks to Tap Fed Discount Window (Bloomberg)
Michael Hsu says idea is to create a ‘fire drill’ for trouble

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1/19/2024

Data dependent precious metals continue their bumpy ride (Saxo)
Silver continues to trade near a ten-month low relative to gold

China’s Gold Market in 2023: Demand improved and premiums rose (World Gold Council)
The Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM (SHAUPM) in RMB, surged by 17% in 2023

Gold drifts higher as Middle East tension attracts safe-haven inflows (Reuters)
Atlanta Fed president open to cut U.S. interest rates sooner…

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1/18/2024

Gold retreats to over one-month low after data dims rate-cut hopes (Reuters)
Palladium lowest since 2018

Gold Resurgence: Central Banks, Market Turmoil, and the Unfolding Financial Paradigm (Commodity Discovery Fund)
The spotlight now rests on the United States, prompting speculation about potential explicit or implicit gold revaluation in the future.

US banking giants shed over 17,000 employees in turbulent year (Reuters)
Trouble on the street…

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1/17/2024

It Won’t Be a Recession—It Will Just Feel Like One (WSJ)
TThe bad news is that, for a lot of people, it is still going to feel like a recession.

Beijing tells some investors not to sell as Chinese stock rout resumes (FT)
TTraders say process of easing and then reimposing informal curbs is undermining market confidence first weeks of the new year.

Gold on steroids? Bitcoin, gold correlation surges in 2023 (Coin Telegraph)
Bitcoin and gold recorded strong performances in 2023 amid geopolitical uncertainties and rising interest rates

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Daily Gold Market Report

2024 Housing Market Downturn:
Prices Fall and Buyers Hesitate

(USAGOLD – 1/17/2024) The gold market is facing challenges in gaining positive momentum, while robust consumption in December maintains support for healthy economic activity. Gold is trading at $2018.73, down $9.71. Silver is trading at $22.63, down 29 cents. Median house prices have fallen nearly 9% since June 2022, indicating a nationwide trend. Despite a decline to a median of $410,000, housing remains unaffordable for many, exacerbated by high mortgage rates. “Redfin’s homebuyer demand index paints a sobering picture for 2024, showing a 9% year-over-year decrease and a staggering 40% drop from 2022 levels. Google Trends data reveals that the search interest in “homes for sale” is at an index level of 47, nearly half of the levels witnessed in the peak pandemic home-buying boom of 2021,” Toni Grzunov of isoldmyhouse.com reports. Could the continued decrease in housing prices revive interest among buyers, or does it indicate deeper issues in the market? As homebuilders reduce prices aggressively, is it possible for their methods to guide traditional home sellers, or are new homes and existing homes on divergent paths? As 2024 unfolds, the real estate market stands at a pivotal point. It remains to be seen if the willingness of sellers to lower prices will create a more equitable and affordable market environment.

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1/16/2024

Goldman Sees India’s Rising Affluent Class Buy Up Premium Goods (Bloomberg)
The country’s affluent class is expected to nearly double to 100 million people within three years

Why the launch of bitcoin ETFs threatens the market for gold (Market Watch)
The bitcoin ETFs are a sign that a new asset class is “emerging into the public’s investable category in a compliant way, just like what gold did about 20 years ago”

Uranium prices hit 12-year high as governments warm to nuclear power (FT)
Prices for the commodity dubbed “yellowcake” have jumped about 12 per cent to $65.50 per pound over the past month

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1/12/2024

Why “Inflation Hedge” Gold is Falling, Despite Hot US CPI (City Index)
Both the long- and shorter-term technical pictures for gold remain constructive for a retest or break of $2075 resistance.

Indiana Bill Would Treat Gold and Silver as Legal Tender (Tenth Admendment Center)
Exempt both from assessment and taxation under Indiana’s property tax statute and from the state gross retail tax..

The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2014-2023) (Visual Capitalist)
In a departure from other commodities, gold jumped over 13%, driven by investor demand and central bank purchases.

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1/11/2024

2023 Commodities Report: Winners And Losers In The Global Market (Forbes)
Gold was the number one commodity and only one of two that finished the year in the black, copper being the other commodity

To the Governor: New Jersey Passes Bill to Remove Sales Taxes from Gold and Silver (Tenth Admendment Center)
“In effect, states that collect taxes on purchases of precious metals are inherently saying gold and silver are not money at all.”

Bank of Canada files for ‘digital dollar,’ other related trademarks (Toronto Sun)
In Dec. 13 and Dec. 19 filings, the bank asserted ownership of “digital dollar,” “digital Canadian dollar” and “central bank digital currency”

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1/10/2024

The Bond Market Rally Is Overlooking a Soaring $2 Trillion Debt Problem (Bloomberg)
Over the next several weeks, governments from the US, UK and the eurozone will start flooding the market with bonds at a clip rarely seen before

SEC Blames Hack for Incorrect Post About Bitcoin ETF Approval (WSJ)
“It’s a hack,” a spokeswoman for the SEC said.

China’s forex, gold reserves expected to increase in 2024 (China Daily)
The country’s official reserves in gold surged by the largest amount in eight years in 2023.

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1/9/2024

COT: Weakest commodities conviction since 2015 (SAXO)
Hedge funds holding the smallest end of year net long across 24 major commodities since 2015

Palladium price falls as concern EVs will destroy demand returns to the fore (Mining)
Palladium prices fell by 3% on Thursday as concern the take-up of electric vehicles will destroy long-term demand

Sustainability 101: The Advantages of Recycling Over Mining (Noble6)
Sam Sabin is currently spearheading the development of Sabin Metal Corporation’s sustainability program, focusing on responsible processing for critical metals.

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1/8/2024

Perth Mint’s gold and silver sales hit four-year low in 2023 (NASDAQ)
Yearly sales of gold coins and minted bars fell to 665,889 ounces in 2023, down 40% compared to 2022, while silver sales were down 36% from 2022 levels at 14.9 million ounces.

Gold Fever At Dubai Airport Amid Record Sales For Its Biggest Retailer (Forbes)
The main duty-free retailer at the world’s busiest international airport, Dubai International, has reported a new all-time revenue record with sales in 2023 reaching 7.885 billion UAE dirhams ($2.16 billion)

Gold glitters amidst geopolitical uncertainty (LGT)
A further rise in geopolitical risk could fuel an increase in gold prices from current levels

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1/5/2024

Gold steadies as traders await jobs data for Fed cues (NASDAQ)
Fed meeting released on Wednesday showed officials were convinced inflation was coming under control

Will Gold Dazzle or Disappoint in 2024? (ETF)
Investors confront compelling cases both for and against gold and related ETFs.

Whether It’s Solid Gold or an ETF, Tokenizing Assets Demands Interoperability (NASDAQ)
Tokenized gold and other precious metals are a logical asset class for tokenization

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1/4/2024

The Hottest Property in Gold Mining Is Copper (WSJ)
Gold miners recently celebrated the precious metal fetching its highest price ever and they are reinvesting much of that windfall in copper.

Royal Mint sees 7% uptick in investors (Portfolio Advisor)
Investors used a variety of methods to enter the precious metal market, with 77% using either the Mint’s digital platform, DigiGold, or purchasing fractional coins and bars.

An insight into Russia’s view on gold (Macleod Finance)
Golden rouble 3

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1/3/2024

Gold begins new year restrained by stronger dollar (Reuters)
Rate cuts could lift gold to record highs

Gold in 2024 (Goldmoney)
It is hardly surprising, bearing in mind that gold is legal money and currencies are credit with counterparty risk.

Americans Understand Inflation (Daily Reckoning)
Gold ‘Cheap’ at $2050

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1/2/2024

Christian Brenner: And That’s When Gold Comes In (FINEWS)
Gold is increasingly being used as a hard asset, like cash, as a backup to protect against IT failures and cybercrime

China’s net gold imports via HK rise (Business Recorder)
Total gold imports via Hong Kong were up 37% at 46.049 tons compared to last month and up 120.9% from last year

On New Year’s Eve 1974, You Could Own Gold Again (Forbes)
On December 31, 1974, the federal government once again permitted Americans to own gold.

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12/21/2023

Gold gains traction among country’s investment options (China Daily)
Wealth preservation and security exceeded in importance to increasing the value of China’s wealth

Using AI to inform next-generation trading strategies (Fow)
AI tools can deliver immediate value that can be used to improve services and internal processes, often through the automation of complex tasks

Warren’s surveillance legislation is tailor-made to help big banks (CoinTelegraph)
Warren’s Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act would shut crypto providers down, playing into the hands of the banking industry.

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12/18/2023

Costco gold bars were a hot holiday buy — while they lasted (Business Insider)
Sales of the one-ounce bars are limited to two per membership and sell out “within a few hours.”

Falling inflation might not dent gold’s rally (FT)
TPrecious metal can gain even if the US economy heads to a soft landing

Peak Gold—Evidence And Implications (Forbes)
Experts think peak gold may have been reached in 2018. In that year, production fell by 1%.

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12/152023

Gold touches 10-day high as Fed hints at lower US rates next year (Reuters)
Palladium advances 11% in best session since March 2020

Bank of America: Bullish on gold into summer (CNBC)
The “Halftime Report” Investment Committee debate their top metal picks

China’s gold market in November: premium elevated, gold reserves rose further (WGC)
Pushing its reported gold reserves up by 12t to 2,226t

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12/14/2023

Gold’s premature FOMO surge leaves it short-term challenged (Saxo)
Gold remains on track for its best year since 2020

A Paradigm Shift in Japan’s Gold Market (SMBA)
Gold is garnering more attention in Japan than ever before

Monthly Gold Compass December 2023 (Incememtum)
Data Visualized as of end of November

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12/13/2023

Commodities Outlook 2024: Cautious optimism (ING)
Precious metals are likely to move higher next year, and we see gold trading to new record highs in 2024

Inflation will have to get a lot worse to justify gold’s current price (Morningstar)
Inflation is not nearly high enough to justify gold’s recent rise to a new all-time high

Asset Tokenization on Blockchains Could Increase Systemic Risks: BOE (CoinDesk)
“International coordination can reduce the risks of cross-border spillovers, regulatory arbitrage, and market fragmentation”

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12/12/2023

China faces the risk of a debt-deflation loop (FT)
“Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should be strongly resisted.”

Gold is settling after its brief burst of life; silver has a speculative overhang (City Index)
Now is the time for gold to pause for a breath, with technical factors deteriorating.

Saudi targets one million ounces of gold production by 2030 (Zawya)
Mining revenues soar by 35%

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12/11/2023

Further consolidation required? (Goldmoney)
Conditions are set to remain tight in physical markets

Gold Has Been An Excellent Barometer In The 2000s (Forbes)
The great missed opportunity of the 1980s and 1990s was not to reintroduce a formal gold standard when gold was low..

Gold’s Fickleness Makes It Bitcoin for Boomers (Bloomberg)
The yellow metal has become untethered from financial fundamentals

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12/08/2023

Gold could hit $2,200 by the end of 2024: UBS (CNBC)
why macroeconomic factors, not geopolitics, will send gold prices higher in 2024

Silver Price Forecast (Nasdaq)
Silver Attempts to Stabilize

The Ghost of Vibecessions Past Is Haunting Our Holidays (Bloomberg)
Biden administration officials telling voters the economy is in excellent shape only adds insult to injury….

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12/07/2023

Gold firms as spotlight shifts to US jobs print (Reuters)
Focus shifts to US non-farm payroll on Friday

Why Gold Prices Are Hitting Records (WSJ)
Bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates early is helping propel gains

Investors Bet on 44% Argentine Peso Devaluation After Milei’s Debut (Bloomberg)
Move signals beginning of end for country’s capital controls…

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12/06/2023

Young Chinese spurn traditional investments in favour of gold (Reuters)
“Incomes are not really appreciating, real estate is not really appreciating, the stock market is not really appreciating. Gold is a little bit of a unicorn in this environment.”

EV Boom Drives Miner’s $100 Million Hunt for New Palladium Uses (Bloomberg)
Potential uses include products in hydrogen and solar sectors

Gold’s Bold Move to New Closing High (Sprott)
Central banks and sovereign buying have put a floor under gold prices…

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12/05/2023

Gold price hits all-time high as traders bet on interest rate cuts (FT)
Gold remains far from its inflation-adjusted high of about $3,300 per troy ounce achieved in 1980..

UAE: Why is everyone buying gold despite record-high prices? (Zawya)
Huge crowds and busy shops were seen all across the country as people flocked to buy the yellow metal

COT: Speculators add further fuel to gold rally (Saxo)
Firm belief that rates have peaked

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12/04/2023

Fitch sees industrial metal prices falling in 2024, gold set to rise (Mining)
Regional debate around nationalizing the mining sector in areas like Chile and Peru had begun to ebb..

Case for gold fever: NewEdge Wealth sees record rush intensifying (CNBC)
“Central banks are again outbidding gold against dwindling supply”

Precious metals take top spot for a second month (Saxo)
Precious metals sector tops the performance table with a gain around 4%

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12/01/2023

Gold Inches Closer to Record High as Bets for Fed Pivot Beef Up (Yahoo)
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he’s growing increasingly confident that inflation is firmly on a downward path

Saudi Arabia studies graphite, rare earths trading platform (Reuters)
There are currently no exchanges offering contracts for graphite or rare earth metals, both important materials for electric vehicle and the energy transition.

Global commodity markets are in a ‘super-squeeze’ (CNBC)
Paul Bloxham of HSBC explains why supply-side disruptions are the reasons behind the elevation of commodity prices

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11/30/2023

Decreasing Inflation Shouldn’t Stifle Gold Prices, Says Strategist (ETF Trends)
Demand should also stay elevated in the 2024 election year for the U.S

IMF, World Bank and BIS in first ‘tokenisation’ collaboration (Reuters)
“encoding policy and regulatory requirements” into a “common protocol”

An Unclassified Peek Inside Fort Knox Gold Depository (Coin Week)
Exclusive from former Director of the United States Mint

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11/29/2023

Gold, Silver And Bitcoin Shine Brightly This Holiday Season (Forbes)
Industrial demand for the white metal is expected to hit an all-time high this year

Gold bars and Tokyo apartments:How money is flowing out of China (Japan Times)
an estimated $50 billion a month has been taken out of China this year..

Panama’s top court rules First Quantum contract unconstitutional (Mining.com)
Cobre Panama mine accounts for about 1.5% of global production of copper

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11/28/2023

Goldman says ‘shine is returning’ for gold as investors ramp up bets on rate cuts (CNBC)
CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 25% probability of a cut as soon as March

Gold taking pole position in 2023; rhodium has fallen to the back of the pack (Heraeus)
The gold price is currently 8.4% higher than at the start of the year

Gold price hits six-month high as investors bet on rate cuts (FT)
“The US rate outlook is the key driver for gold”

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11/27/2023

ETF Investors Bail On Gold Bullion For 5 Straight Months (Forbes)
Exchange-traded fund investors are falling out of love with gold bullion

China turns to households in fight to slash carbon emissions (Reuters)
Shenzhen’s “Carbon Road for Everyone” scheme, rewards people for logging their use of public transport, is one of dozens of programs around China encouraging citizens to ditch cars, plant trees and cut energy use

Interview: Joe Cavatoni – Chief Market Strategist For The World Gold Council (InvestmentNews)
Gold set to shine in 2024 thanks to increased central bank buying

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11/22/2023

Gold prices settle above $2,000 an ounce for highest finish late October (MarketWatch)
“Gold is seeing a pattern of strong buying demand coming out of Asia with India importing significantly more gold in October than was forecasted last month”

What asset tokenization will look like in 2024 and beyond (Yahoo)
A multi-trillion market by 2030

Gold in the MENA Region (BullionWorld)
A Profile of Gold Markets in Saudi Arabia,Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Sudan, Libya, and the UAE

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11/21/2023

How traceability of gold became a focus for independent jewellers (FT)
Certification of small-scale miners provides ethical reassurance

Ray Dalio says U.S. reaching an inflection point where the debt problem quickly gets even worse (CNBC)
The government spent $659 billion on net interest costs in fiscal 2023 to finance the debt..

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11/20/2023

Global Silver Industrial Demand Forecast to Achieve New High in 2023 (Yahoo)
Silver Industrial demand is expected to grow 8% to a record 632 million ounces (Moz) this year

JPMorgan adds ‘holy grail’ payments feature as part of blockchain push (Blockworks)
“a real-time and a programmable treasury”

How Can I Use My Gold In A Cashless Society (Robots)
Financial Crisis Protection..

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11/17/2023

Singapore to pilot use of wholesale central bank digital currencies in 2024 (CNBC)
Here they come..

IMF chief urges more proactive push for central bank digital currencies (Reuters)
When it rains it pours..

Human Rights Foundation (HRF) Launches Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker (HRF)
So you are informed going forward..

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11/16/2023

Fitch says US regional bank challenges to persist in 2024 (Reuters)
“Regional banks lacking in scale will be disproportionately pressured to reduce cost bases and optimize loan composition”

Hong Kong Ousts Dubai as Biggest Hub for Russian Gold Trade (Yahoo)
Hong Kong imported 68 tons of Russian gold this year, four times as much as the whole of 2022

I’m a Gen Z worker who just graduated and started my first full-time job. I was shocked by the 9-to-5 schedule. (Business Insider)
Says it’s really depressing to work a 9-to-5 schedule

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11/15/2023

Gold advances as yields, dollar slip after US inflation data (Reuters)
US consumer prices unchanged in October

The case for loosening is getting stronger (FT)
As inflation eases, central banks now find themselves at the most difficult point in the policymaking cycle

‘What the Hell Is Going On at the FDIC?’ Lawmakers Grill Agency Chairman (WSJ)
Accounts of alleged harassment, toxic culture within bank regulator

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11/14/2023

Important Silver Demand Drivers To Effectively Double Rate Of Growth Over Next Decade (Silver Institute)
New research indicates that silver industrial demand is forecast to increase 46 percent through 2033

Swiss investors buck the trend of gold ETF divestment (Heraeus)
Funds based in Switzerland bucked the market trend in October by increasing the gold held by 691 koz, or 8% of total Swiss funds’ holdings

Gold demand surges from India to Hong Kong despite price rally linked to Israel-Gaza war (SCMP)
Asia’s legendary appetite for gold is intact in the run-up to peak festival and wedding season

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11/13/2023

Gold miners’ AISC still rising, but at a slower pace (World Gold Council)
In Q2’23 the gold miners’ global average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) rose to US$1,315/oz

Here’s Why Moody’s ‘Negative’ U.S. Credit Outlook Matters (Forbes)
Congress continues to fail to pass a budget, a government shutdown next week appears increasingly likely

More than half of Singapore’s rich investing more in safer assets like cash, gold (StraitsTimes)
Study surveyed more than 460 HNWIs in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Taiwan and Australia

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11/9/2023

UK Sanctions Gold and Oil Traders in New Russian Clampdown (Bloomberg)
UK restricts gold trader Paloma and Howard Jon Baker

Gold ETFs Record Fifth Successive Monthly Outflow In October (Forbes)
Net outflows from these physically backed funds amounted to $2 billion (or 37 tonnes) last month

PLATINUM FOR THE WIN (World Platinum Invest Council)
Next year’s Olympic Games will showcase how platinum-based hydrogen technology can help achieve the goal of net zero

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11/8/2023

Gold mining ETFs fail to keep pace with benchmark bullion fund (Reuters)
The correlation between gold prices and gold miners’ shares stands at 0.6 in 2023, down from a historical level of 0.8

Gold retreats as safe-haven rally fizzles, palladium hits 5-year low (CNBC)
“the sooner the first rate cut gets pushed in the forecast, the better it is for gold”

Gold Outlook to Q3 2024 (Wisdomtree)
Galvanized by geopolitics

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11/7/2023

Gold stays steady as rates remain at 22-year high (Heraeus)
Possible we will see some of this ‘war premium’ dissipate over the next few weeks..

WeWork’s Multibillion Rescue Couldn’t Save It From Office Bust (Bloomberg)
Once worth $47 billion, set to file bankruptcy, CRE is imploding..

Israel-Hamas conflict pushing gold price to highs, says Newmont boss (FT)
“There are certainly scenarios that you could see it pushing up through record highs, Unfortunately those scenarios for our society aren’t great.” 

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

11/6/2023

China is Hoarding the World’s Gold (Newsweek)
Responsible for acquiring 181 tonnes out of a total 800 tonnes purchased by central banks worldwide..

Gold ETFs Rebound (NASDAQ)
Can the Momentum Continue?

Colombia Accelerates Plan to Recover Up to $20 Billion in Sunken Treasure (Bloomberg)
The 62-gun Spanish galleon was sunk in battle by the British in 1708

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

11/3/2023

Gold and oil take centre stage as geopolitics rise to the fore (Wisdomtree)
Gold continues to defy its historic relationship with bonds, with bond prices falling hard while gold prices have risen..

Metals Insights: Three Factors Keeping a Floor Under Gold (CME Group)
For a second time this year, gold has crossed its key psychological level of $2,000

Why the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady could lift gold back above $2,000 (MarketWatch)
Strong U.S. yields should help underpin the dollar, and provide at least somewhat of a headwind for gold

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

11/2/2023

Powell Hints Fed Is Done With Hikes in Pivot Cheered by Markets (Bloomberg)
2 Year Yield Plunges..

HSBC Takes Stab at Using Blockchain to Modernize London’s Antiquated Gold Market (Bloomberg)
One token on HSBC’s new system is equivalent to 0.001 troy ounce

Gold supported in 2024 by bets on monetary policy easing (Reuters)
The latest poll shows just 55% of economists say the Fed will cut by mid-2024

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

11/1/2023

China leads record central bank gold buying in first nine months of year (FT)
Central banks in emerging markets look to reduce reliance on US dollar for reserves holdings.

Silver-Based Gel With Amino Acids 100 Times More Effective Than Conventional Silver Drugs (Silver Institute)
Production of this gel is inexpensive and non-toxic

Biden’s New AI Executive Order Is Regulation Run Amok (Forbes)
May prove one of the most dangerous government policies in years..

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/31/2023

BlackRock warns investor disdain for mining threatens green transition (FT)
Complacency over supply of transition metals..

Be Smart — How To Recession-Proof Your Portfolio With Gold (Forbes)
Suggests 20-25% of wealth be invested in gold and/or silver

Universal basic income is working — even in red states (BusinessInsider)
“Economically stable people make better neighbors. When they aren’t worried about how they’re going to pay their bills, they tend not to come through your window at night.”

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/30/2023

Gold Is Now Beating the S&P 500 This Year (WSJ)
Gold up 9.3% this year, while the benchmark for U.S. stocks is up 7.7%

The Nasdaq’s fallen into a correction (YahooFinance)
Down about 23% year-to-date

Top gold refiner exits Swiss industry group over sourcing fight (Mining)
IValcambi SA has resigned from the Swiss gold refining association

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/27/2023

US economic growth accelerated to 4.9% in third quarter (FT)
8.0% increase in defense spending…

The US can’t grow its way out of its $33 trillion debt mountain (BuisnessInsider)
The government is on track to hit a record-high debt-to-GDP ratio by 2029

What’s Driving the Price of Gold? (NASDAQ)
Interview with Ruth Crowell, CEO of LBMA

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/26/2023

More alarm bells sound on slowing demand for electric vehicles (Reuters)
High interest rates are derailing the ambitions of climate regulators and automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles

How Romans pioneered silver recycling (Mining)
Gold impurities in silver coins and lead pollution in Greenland ice show that the Romans were pioneers of recycling

Interview: 3D Printing Platinum in the Jewelry Sector (3DPrint)
The most common method for precious metal Additive Manufacturing, is based mainly on laser powder bed fusion

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/25/2023

Precious metals’ place in a portfolio (ABRDN)
Precious metals largely remain an underutilized and overlooked investment option.

Scientists Solve Mystery of Precious Metals in Earth’s Mantle (ExplorersWeb) (PNAS)
Elements that came to Earth through impacts from giant asteroids and protoplanets, all bind easily to iron

US consumers selling their gold to make ends meet  (KITCO)
The gold market continues to prove its worth as an essential store of value

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/24/2023

PRECIOUS APPRAISAL (Heraeus)
Gold surprisingly resistant in the face of yet higher treasury yields.

Behind the Curtain: Rattled U.S. government fears wars could spread (Axios)
U.S. officials say this confluence of crises poses epic concern and historic danger

Central Banks Support Gold & Solar PV Demand Buoys Silver  (Sprott)
Green technologies have emerged as the largest demand vector for silver

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/23/2023

China weighs options to blunt U.S. sanctions in a Taiwan conflict (Reuters)
Gold-denominated bonds?

Gold rallies as geopolitical turmoil overshadows rising bond yields (FT)
Gold breaks its long-term correlation with US Treasuries

Gold miners’ fat profits  (Mining)
Q3 profits are poised to skyrocket

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/20/2023

Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down (CNBC)
The central bank would be “resolute” in its commitment to its 2% mandate..

Researchers in Japan succeed in collecting deep-sea gold using algae (NHK)
They collected gold from near a 700-meter-deep hydrothermal vent

OTC demand pushing gold to Asia could be why prices can withstand 5% bond yields  (KITCO)
This past year, 500 family investment offices were opened in Singapore, compared to about 40 per year pre-COVID

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/19/2023

China Sells Most US Securities in Four Years Amid Yuan Weakness (Bloomberg)
The treasury sell off continues…

The Myth of the Great Boomer Wealth Transfer (BusinessInsider)
Probably going to spend all their savings before they can pass anything down to their children..

ECB starts preparation for digital euro in multi-year project  (Reuters)
Small step in a multi-year project

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/18/2023

Have central banks lost control over the gold price? (GoldMoney)
IGold prices have completely detached from model-predicted values.

Bank of America’s unrealized losses on securities rose to $131.6 bln (Reuters)
Is this real life?

Yellen says U.S. can simultaneously support Israel and Ukraine war aims  (MarketWatch)
33 trillion in debt, but can afford 2 foreign wars simultaneously…

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/17/2023

Weak Chinese EV demand drives down battery metal prices (FT)
Irrational exuberance..

Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust (WSJ)
Highest mortgage rates in 23 years are dragging down home sales

Australia open to idea of CBDC as future of money  (CoinTelegraph)
“A Tokenised Future for the Australian Financial System”

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/16/2023

Newcrest Shareholders Approve Newmont’s $15 Billion Takeover (Bloomberg)
Gold sector’s largest-ever deal

It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over (Buisness Insider)
End of an era?

Want a Discount? Pay in Cash.  (WSJ)
Is a 3% cash discount enough to make people ditch credit cards and payment apps?

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/13/2023

US inflation higher than expected in September (FT)
Will the Fed raise again?

US Treasury Debt Dynamics ‘Very Unfavorable,’ IMF Official Says (Bloomberg)
US on an ‘unsustainable’ fiscal path with big deficits

Social Security Benefits Will Rise 3.2% In 2024, While Top Tax Jumps 5.2%  (Forbes)
Small boost compared to the 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2023

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/12/2023

The Case for Gold in Defined Contribution Asset Allocations (World Gold Council)
Portfolios of equities and bonds has come under increasing pressure

ExxonMobil agrees to buy shale group Pioneer in $59.5bn deal (FT)
Biggest acquisition since it was formed through the merger of Exxon and Mobil in 1999

Argentina’s Black Market Peso Rate Tops 1,000 Per Dollar  (Bloomberg)
Was near half that level in July…

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/11/2023

Chinese Gold Versus World Market Surges Again After Holiday Week (Bloomberg)
Second-highest premium on record compared to the international benchmark

U.S. banks need TARP 2.0: A trapped asset relief program (American Banker)
Privatize profits and socialize losses

Consumers starting to buckle for first time in a decade, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns  (CNBC)
Lag effects becoming realized…

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/10/2023

Americans Are Still Spending Like There’s No Tomorrow (WSJ)
Concerts, trips and designer handbags are taking priority over saving for a home or rainy day..

Israel’s central bank sells $30 billion in foreign reserves after shekel slides to seven-year low (CBNC)
The shekel had already weakened by 10% so far in 2023

Gold Holds Gains as Markets Mull Rate Pause, Middle East Crisis  (Bloomberg)
Precious metal may have already seen its quarterly low

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/9/2023

America is now paying more in interest on its record $33 trillion debt than on national defense (Yahoo)
Who holds the IOUs..

Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds (WSJ)
Testing the bond market..

Attack on Israel likely to boost appeal of gold, safe-haven assets  (Reuters)
Hedge against international turmoil

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/6/2023

Treasury rout bolsters view that Fed will call time on rate rises (FT)
Market odds of another increase by year-end drop to 30%

How a CBDC Created Chaos and Poverty in Nigeria (Mises)
A failed experiment..

Flexport Plans to Lay Off 30% of Workforce  (WSJ)
Global shipping demand is declining

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/5/2023

The congressional push to create $650 billion (Axios)
$650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)

Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble (Bloomberg)
Duration exposure fuels painful losses

Mortgage demand drops to the lowest level since 1996, as interest rates head toward 8%  (CNBC)
Refis are down too..

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

10/4/2023

3.5-Day Workweek? (Forbes)
Jamie Dimon Predicts AI Could Make It Happen

Gold Glitters In China’s Financial Storm (Forbes)
Sales of bars and coins are up 30% compared to last year

If The Bond Markets Aren’t Scaring You Yet, They Should Be  (Politico)
Yield-mageddon in the US 

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

Recommended Headline News & Opinion
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10/3/2023

America’s Looming Debt Spiral (Bloomberg)
Short video on the problem

When Will the Fed Stop Raising Rates? That’s the Trillion-Dollar Question for Bond Investors (WSJ)
Lock-in higher rate long term debt?

Welcome to the Great Internet Splintering (Market Insider)
New, healthier era of social media

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

Recommended Headline News & Opinion
DAILY LINKS
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10/2/2023

Comex Gold Ends the Quarter 3.80% Lower at $1848.10 — Data Talk (WSJ)
Year-to-date it is up $28.40 or 1.56%

The debt-fueled bet on US Treasuries that’s scaring regulators (FT)
Selling futures and buying bonds

Like crypto or not, central banks need to prepare, BIS innovate head says (Blockworks)
Tokenization could be revolutionary

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

Recommended Headline News & Opinion
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9/29/2023

200 Years of Global Gold Production, by Country (ELEMENTS)
Great visual

Talk about striking gold! Britain’s oldest coin hoard is discovered in Buckinghamshire dating back 2,173 years (Dailymail)
Made in 150BC

aXedras and the Royal Canadian Mint collaborate on digitalization of provenance and product integrity (Newswire)
More trends of digitalization of gold

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Today’s top gold news and opinion

Recommended Headline News & Opinion
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9/28/2023
Must-watch: Singapore Reserves Revealed  insight into the country’s rainy day fund  (CNA)
Insight into the country’s rainy day fund

Gold hastens retreat on higher-for-longer rate bets (Reuters)
Soft landing?…

Costco is selling gold bars and they are selling out within a few hours (CNBC)
$1.50 Hotdog and an ounce of gold

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In Loving Memory of Michael J. Kosares: A 50-Year Legacy of Gold Advocacy

It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I share that my father, Michael J. Kosares, owner and founder of USAGOLD, passed away last Thursday (September 7, 2023) after a multi-year battle with cancer.  He was 75 years old.  After fifty years of dedication and devotion to the precious metals business, my father only hung-up his hat just a few weeks ago when he was physically no longer able to work.

Despite countless professional accolades over the course of his storied career, he was never one to boast, nor one to seek out acknowledgement or praise. For him, true success came in a well written article – one he deemed ‘had what it took’ to make a lasting impact, not necessarily just for our company, but for our industry as a whole, for our colleagues, for our clients, for our subscribers and site visitors, and for really anyone and everyone who took an interest in precious metals and encountered his work.  He was an unwavering and tireless advocate for gold and silver ownership throughout his career, educating generations of investors on the merits of owning physical metals as a means to preserve and protect their wealth during turbulent economic times.  From his hardcopy newsletter, ‘News & Views’, to three editions of his educational treatise, ‘The ABC’s of Gold Investing,’ to volumes of original content delivered via our website over the past 25 years, he spent five decades on the vanguard of gold market news, analysis, and commentary.  A truly gifted writer, he made economics accessible, displaying again and again a remarkable ability to simplify even the most complex subjects for his readers.  He would take on vast and complicated financial topics, distill them down to the salient points, weave in an interesting history lesson, and top it all off with a bit of clever humor – leaving his readers not only informed and enlightened, but truly entertained.

To say he will be missed is certainly an understatement.  To answer ‘was his career a success?’, look no further than the countless individuals who know his name, have been inspired by his work and have benefitted from his wisdom.  He leaves behind an exemplary legacy, and one I am deeply honored to carry forward.

Jonathan Kosares
COO/Owner – USAGOLD
[email protected]

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Daily Gold Market Report

Gold drifts lower on sinking Chinese economy, caution ahead of inflation data
Mish Shedlock comments on favorable chart set-up for gold

(USAGOLD – 8/8/2023) – Gold drifted lower in early trading as China reported double-digit declines in both imports and exports, and investors took to the sidelines ahead of Thursday’s inflation data. It is down $11 at $1927. Silver is down 24¢ at $22.96. Mish Shedlock, the widely read editor of MIshTalk, recently had a few brief but supportive comments on the current technical set-up for gold. He says neither triple tops (like the one prominently displayed on the current gold chart) nor bottoms tend to hold. “If that view is correct,” he says, “gold is headed higher. Seasonally speaking, gold is heading into a favorable time of year. Finally, this has been a long 3-year consolidation period, with gold not too far from record highs.” He ends with some straightforward advice: “If you have faith in central banks, sell your gold. Otherwise, I suggest hanging on to it.”

Gold price
(Five year)
bar chart 5 year on gold
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Daily Gold Market Report

Gold trades cautiously to the downside ahead of inflation reports, bond sales
World Gold Council reports solid coin and bar demand for Q2-2023

(USAGOLD – 8/7/2023) – Gold is trading cautiously to the downside as it begins a week that includes the all-important consumer and wholesale inflation reports. It is down $7 at $1939. Silver is down 21¢ $23.50. Also on the agenda is a massive offering of Treasury notes and bonds, sure to be closely monitored by bond market participants.

The World Gold Council reports a net deceleration in central bank purchases during the second quarter (year over year) but a solid increase in bar and coin demand (+6%). Despite the decline in central bank demand from above-average in last year’s second quarter, WGC still sees it as “resolutely positive.” Total demand is up 7% over the same quarter last year.

bar chart showing sector gold demand Q2-2023
Chart courtesy of the World Gold Council • • • Click to enlarge

 

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Gold demand trends Q2 2023 – World Gold Council

––World Gold Council/Staff/8-1-2023

“Central bank buying slowed in Q2 but remained resolutely positive. This, combined with healthy investment and resilient jewellery demand, created a supportive environment for gold prices.”

USAGOLD note: Bar and coin demand increased by 6% year over year in the second quarter.

Bar chart showing strong gold coin demand during the second quarter 2023
Chart courtesy of World Gold Council

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The USAGOLD Website
A guiding light for our current and would-be clientele since 1997

graphic image of light house beaming
Welcome newcomers!

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1997), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 26-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning, we have grown to almost 800,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is a good place to start. 

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Interested in gold but struggling to find the right firm?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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‘Last hike of the cycle’: economists predict Federal Reserve is done with interest rate rises

Financial Times/Colby Smith/7-26-2023

graphic illustrating a sign of confusion“Nothing in the policy statement or the press conference led me to doubt our view that this will be the last hike of the cycle,” said Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. “The consumer is slowing, jobs are slowing, inflation is slowing and all those big pieces of the economy have been coming in line with our expectations.”

USAGOLD note: The tussle between an adamant Fed and a dubious Wall Street continues ………

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

FOMZZZZ… But an inflation spike could wake us yet

Bloomberg/John Authers/7-27-2023

graphic image of walk in a deep, fearful wood

“The Fed promised us a nonevent and it delivered — give or take a few comments. The Federal Open Market Committee did indeed raise the benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to the highest level in 22 years at 5.5%. But as that outcome had been rated a 99% probability when Wednesday dawned, it came as no surprise.”

graphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend ReadUSAGOLD note:  We are not yet out of the inflation woods……Gasoline prices, says Authers, could trigger a surprise summer wake-up call.

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Short & Sweet
‘He clung to that which he could really trust, really own, really control’

photo of stacks of gold and silver coins

In an analysis posted at Daily Reckoning, Jeffery Tucker offered an opinion on inflation shared by a good many economists and investors. “Gradually,” he writes, “we’ve come to see the light. There will be no rolling back those price increases in general. There will be declines in the pace of increase here or there but overall prices have shifted upward, permanently.” With that in mind, he shares some family history: “There is nothing we can take for granted in this inflationary crazy economic environment, no rules of thumb that can really guide us. My father was a thrifty man, a truly great man, but also a believer in long-term value and truth. Yes, he loved gold and silver coins too, and very much so. He accumulated them throughout his life. As I look at that today, it is extremely obvious that this was one of his best financial decisions. He was never a day trader or a rah-rah techno champion. He clung to that which he could really trust, really own, really control. That seems like a good way to think even now.”

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Looking for something you can really trust, really own, really control?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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There’s a weird link between money and bees, and it goes back thousands of years

Science Alert/Adrian Dyer/7-25-2023

Greek gold coin portraying beegraphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend Read“Over the centuries between these two events, currency demonstrating a symbolic link between honey and money is surprisingly common. In a recent study in Australian Coin Review, I trace the bee through numismatic history – and suggest a scientific reason why our brains might naturally draw a connection between the melliferous insects and the abstract idea of value.”

USAGOLD note: All about the connections between bees, honey, and money……

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

‘Eye-popping’ $1 trillion third-quarter borrowing need from U.S. Treasury raises risk of buyers’ fatigue

MarketWatch/Vivien Lou Chen/8-1-2023

graphic representation of a tsunami“Just a day after the Treasury Department released a $1 trillion borrowing estimate for the third quarter, questions are being raised about the extent to which foreign and domestic buyers can continue to keep up their demand for U.S. government debt.”

USAGOLD note: This article details some of the problems accompanying this enormous issuance of government debt. It was published before Fitch’s downgrade announcement.

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Notable Quotable

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“There is nothing we can take for granted in this inflationary crazy economic environment, no rules of thumb that can really guide us. My father was a thrifty man, a truly great man, but also a believer in long-term value and truth. Yes, he loved gold and silver coins too, and very much so. He accumulated them throughout his life. As I look at that today, it is extremely obvious that this was one of his best financial decisions. He was never a day trader or a rah-rah techno champion. He clung to that which he could really trust, really own, really control. That seems like a good way to think even now.” – Jeffrey Tucker, Daily Reckoning

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

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Posted in Notable Quotable, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Fitch’s US debt-rating downgrade is bad news for stocks.

MarketsInsider/George Glover/8-2-2023

graphic illustration of US capital spewing dollars“August is usually the quietest month of the year for the stock market. But Fitch shattered any sense of summer calm last night when it slashed the US government’s credit score, in what could end up being a massive blow to President Joe Biden’s economic track record.”

USAGOLD note: Biden’s track record wasn’t exactly glowing before the Fitch announcement. A good many analysts have warned of late that the government’s fiscal stance – and that includes both the Biden administration and Congress – has become a danger to the economy and financial markets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped from 4.01% to 4.105% after the Fitch announcement.

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One hell of a head fake on gold

MishTalk/Mish Shedlock/7-31-2023

image of 500 gram gold bar with chart in background“Gold has big daily drop following Fed and ECB announcements. The pullback lasted 2 days before a big blast higher. In the wake of fluff announcements by the Fed and ECB in which no reporters asked any difficult questions, gold took a mini-dump then surged twice as much two days later.”

USAGOLD note: Mish posts a thumbnail analysis of the current gold market and concludes: “If you have faith in central banks, sell your gold. Otherwise, I suggest hanging onto it.” Worth a visit……

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

How to choose a gold firm
It may be the most important choice you make as a gold owner

photo shows choosing a king on the chessboard

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but useful guidelines
to help
you choose the right gold and silver company.


To end right, start right.
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Monetary vs fiscal dissonance and the return of QE

Zero Hedge/Crescat Capital/7-23-2023

“Following the COVID era, we have entered a period of fiscal dominance among major developed economies. Hence, the escalating debt burden is already near historical levels and compounding at an alarming pace. To sustain the current government spending deluge, we believe it is inevitable that the Fed and other monetary authorities reassume their fundamental role as the primary financiers of government debt.”

USAGOLD note: Crescat predicts “capital will divert away from US Treasuries and flow into gold.”

visualization of the relationship between the federal debt and gold

Chart courtesy of VisualCapitalist.com

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

The US reserve currency and commodities

Goehring & Rozencwajg/7-24-2023

photo of gold bars atop a $100 bill“Incredibly, by 2016 commodity prices had sold off to such an extent that they were the most radically undervalued in 120 years. The only times that came close were in 1929, 1969, and 1999. Following every prior period of radical undervaluation, commodity and natural-resource related investments dramatically outperformed, both in absolute and relative terms.”

USAGOLD note: In this in-depth study, Goehring & Rozencwajg say the coming rally and eventual overvaluation in commodities will likely be led by gold.

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Short and Sweet
Two legendary central bankers embrace gold

Image of one-time central bank heads Mervyn King and Alan Greenspan

In The End of Alchemy (2017), Mervyn King, the former governor of the Bank of England, writes of central banks’ frustration in dealing with the persistently stagnant global economy. “Central banks,” he says, “have thrown everything at their economies, and yet the results have been disappointing, Whatever can be said about the world recovery since the crisis, it has been neither strong, nor sustainable, nor balanced. . . [W]ithout reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain – sooner rather than later.”

“Our problem,” Alan Greenspan once said, “is not recession which is a short-term economic problem. I think you have a very profound long-term problem of economic growth at the time when the Western world, there is a very large migration from being a worker into being a recipient of social benefits as it is called. And this is legally mandated in all of our countries.” The western world, he concludes, is headed to “a state of disaster.”

It is interesting to note that both Greenspan and King, two of the most respected central bankers in modern times, have embraced gold since leaving their respective posts. The former Fed chairman has consistently suggested that gold is “a good place to put money these days given the policies of governments.”

The former governor of the Bank of England says that he is “very struck by the fact that over many, many years, central banks, governments and individuals have always, despite the protestations of economists, held some gold in their portfolio…[W]hen unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, then gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept. And I think that’s why even central banks have always had a role in their portfolios for gold.”

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A long-time market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500 could plummet 64%, bursting a historic bubble

MarketsInsider/Zahra Tayeb/7-25-2023

graphic image of a seated bear gazing quietly back at the viewer“John Hussman is doubling down on his dire outlook for US stocks, even after the market defied recession predictions to notch some impressive gains this year.”

USAGOLD note: Hussman is not impressed by the stock market rally thus far this year. “Yes, this is a bubble  in my view,” he says. “Yes, I believe it will end in tears.”

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No DGMR today or tomorrow. Back Monday.

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Young, rich Americans don’t trust the stock market, so they’re turning to alternative assets

Yahoo! Finance/Jeannine Mancini/7-31-2023

cartoon of a hedge fund manager on the phone telling a client to buy gold

“Based on a survey conducted by Lansons, it was found that less than 10% of the entire American population has invested in alternative assets. However, among the younger generations, there is a more significant interest in alternative investments, with 30% of Gen Z and 25% of millennials either investing in such assets or possessing knowledge of platforms that facilitate these investments.”

USAGOLD note: One of the alternatives mentioned is gold.

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Notable Quotable

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“The first step in theorizing correctly about money is to understand that the value of money, like that of commodities, is never fixed and unchanging. Chinese philosophers who published the earlier Mohist Canons(468 B.C.~376 B.C.) grasped this crucial point. They recognized that metallic money, such as the ‘knife coins’ then in wide circulation, was valued and exchanged by weight and argued that the real value of money, despite its fixed face value, was not stable but fluctuated inversely with the prices of commodities. When commodity prices were high, money was ‘light’ or its purchasing power low; when prices were low, money was ‘heavy’ or its purchasing power high. Thus, if monetary conditions were such that the nominal prices of commodities were abnormally high, the real prices of commodities were not high but rather money was ‘light’ or depreciated.”

Joseph T. Salerno
The Mises Institute

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Air pockets, free falls, and more cowbells

Hussman Funds/John Hussman/July 2023

photo of a road sign reading Bear Market Ahead“There is a particular “setup” that we’ve historically found to be associated with abrupt “air pockets” and ‘free falls’ in the S&P 500. It combines hostile conditions in all three features most central to our investment discipline: rich valuations, unfavorable market internals, and extreme overextension. The last time we observed this combination to a similar degree was in November 2021, shortly before the S&P 500 lost a quarter of its value. The S&P 500 remains lower than it was then. Despite enthusiasm about the market rebound since October, I remain convinced that this initial market loss will prove to be a small opening act in the collapse of the most extreme yield-seeking speculative bubble in U.S. history.”

USAGOLD note: Hussman tells in detail how the stock market is breaking down and why it should be taken seriously.

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Market Overview

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Market Data by TradingView
Delayed data except FOREX

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It’s all about the lags

LinkedIn/David Rosenberg/7-27-2023

“The fact that Fed-induced curve inversions have presaged recessions 100% of the time in the past is never respected. Always a case of hope triumphing over experience. Thing is — very rarely do recessions occur in the same month as the onset of the inverted yield curve. There are lags, and that typically can be a year or longer. Think back to 2007. But like the story of the boy who cried wolf, the wolf did show up in the end.”

USAGOLD note: A heads up from Rosenberg……

Recessions follow inverted yield curves with a lag
(Grey bars = recessions)
lince chart showing the inverted yield curve relationship to recessions
Source. US Federal Reserve [FRED]

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Citi says it’s ‘only a matter of time’ before gold hits a record

Bloomberg/Renjeetha Pakiam/7-20-2023

photo of stacks of gold bars

“The metal is benefiting from loose monetary policy, low real yields, record inflows into exchange-traded funds and increased asset allocation, the bank’s analysts including Aakash Doshi and Ed Morse said in a report. Gold is expected to climb to an all-time high in the next six-to-nine months, and there’s a 30% probability it’ll top $2,000 an ounce in the next three-to-five months.”

USAGOLD note: The report points out that prices for the metal have already posted new highs in every other G-10 and major emerging market currency this year. Silver, it says, will benefit from “demand for a store of wealth.

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Our primal instinct for gold

Money Week/Dominic Frisby/7-20-2023

“The experience of beauty, whether derived from nature, art, music or even mathematics, correlates with activity in the emotional brain, the medial orbitofrontal cortex. Beauty has long been associated by philosophers with truth and purity – also qualities commonly associated with gold. Our instinct for gold and the emotions it inspires from beauty to desire are basic.”

USAGOLD note: Frisby examines mankind’s age-old attachment to gold.

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Short and Sweet
Only real intrinsic money survives the test of time

photo of stacks of gold and silver coins

Here is a timeless observation from the now-deceased Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letter):

“Paper money is now being created wholesale throughout the world. Stated simply, all paper currency is now valued against each other. But more important, ultimately ALL paper is ultimately valued against the only true, intrinsic money – gold. In world history, no irredeemable paper currency has ever survived. Since all the world’s currency is now irredeemable (in gold), this means that in the end, the only form of money that will survive is real intrinsic money – gold. It’s not a question of whether gold will survive, it’s a question of when the world’s current paper money will deteriorate and finally die. I can tell you that irredeemable paper will not survive – but obviously I can’t tell you when it will die. The timing is the only uncertainty.”

The chart below from the World Gold Council speaks to Russell’s point. It shows the performance of various currencies – past and present – against gold over the long term.  When the end comes, as the chart illustrates, it can come abruptly and without warning. For those who stick to the proposition that gold is not really an inflation hedge, or that it is not really a safe-haven against currency debasement, the chart offers instruction. For those who already own gold as a safe-haven, it provides justification. For those who do not own gold, it serves as an incentive.  As the old saying goes:  All is well until it isn’t.

Chart showing gold outperforming all major currencies since 1900
Chart courtesy of the World Gold Council
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Oil markets will face ‘serious problems’ as demand from China and India ramps up, IEF secretary general says

CNBC/Charmaine Jacob/7-22-2023

artist rendering of oil platform in black and white“Oil demand bounced back to pre-Covid levels quickly, “but supply is having a tougher time in catching up,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum, adding that the only factor moderating prices right now is the fear of a looming recession.”

USAGOLD note: Rising oil prices could have a profound effect on the inflation rate as it settles in, assuming McMonigle is right.

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Most of what we’ve heard about the yuan dethroning the dollar is from the West. Here’s what China’s actually said about it.

MarketsInsider/Huileng Tan/7-31-2023

photograph of 100 yuan and $100 bills“While China might not be happy with American dominance  — in global politics, culture, or the financial system — Beijing is far from openly advocating for the ‘redback,’ another name for the yuan, to immediately replace the greenback.

USAGOLD note: Important insights at the link……

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Notable Quotable

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“‘Experience keeps a dear school,’ said Ben Franklin, ‘but fools will learn in no other.’ The wise man remembers. The fool forgets. The wise man listens. The fool talks. He ignores both the living and the dead… the immemorial dead, whose whispers carry the distilled wisdom of history. No – this time is different, comes the fool’s eternal cry. The past is of no use to me.”

Brian Maher
Daily Reckoning

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Traders brace for $102 billion wave of Treasury bond sales

Bloomberg/Liz Capo McCormick/7-31-2023

cartoon of a man rolling out paper towels that are U.S. Treasuries“The US Treasury is set this week to begin a ramp-up in issuance of longer-dated securities that’s likely to stretch into next year, forced by a rapidly deteriorating budget deficit and soaring interest rates.”

USAGOLD note: The new bond sales come at a time when the Fed, Japan, and China are no longer buyers. What happens if support doesn’t materialize?

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China’s gold consumption reaches 555 tons, rising 16.4% in the first half of 2023

Global Times/Staff/7-25-2023

graphic image of overseas shipping container filled with gold bars showing China flag“Among the gold consumption, the purchase of gold bars jumped 30.12 percent year-on-year to 146 tons in the first six months, while that of gold jewelry reached 368 tons, up 14.82 percent from the same period last year. Gold used for industrial and other purposes declined 7.65 percent to 40 tons, the data showed.”

USAGOLD note: China’s appetite for gold grows as its middle classes gain wealth……Note the strong gain in bullion bar demand, a sign that Chinese investors are buying gold as a safe haven.

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Thinking about buying gold and silver?


Gold in six easy lessons

1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already have.

2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.

3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.

4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.

5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.

6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!


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Buy gold and sell U.S. dollars, this strategist says. Here’s why.

MarketWatch/Frances Yue/7-21-2023

“When a global slowdown has been lacking, the dollar has declined at a per annum rate of -1% whereas gold has gained 10% per annum…” – Tim Hayes, Ned Davis Research, chief global investment strategist

USAGOLD note: Ned Davis Research recently downgraded the U.S. dollar from neutral to bearish and upgraded gold from neutral to bullish. It points to an important technical indicator as further evidence of the changing dollar-gold scenario. In January, gold achieved “a golden cross, when its 50-day moving average rose above the index’s 200-day moving average, while the U.S. dollar saw a death cross.” Since the January crossover, gold is up 7.75%, and the US dollar index is down 2.2%.

overlay line chart showing gold and moving averagesChart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs • • • Click to enlarge

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Who wants to keep hiking rates on the FOMC and who doesn’t?

Bloomberg/Steve Matthews, Kyungjin Yoo and Dave Merrill/7-25-2023

photograph of the June14-15 FOMC meeting

“After more than a year of solid agreement that higher interest rates were needed, differences among policymakers have started to deepen as they weigh when to stop hiking and how long to keep rates elevated.”

USAGOLD note: The politics of economics at the Fed broken down. A good lead in to today’s rate decision and press conference……

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Short and Sweet
Inflation is a process not an event
But history, as we are learning now, shows runaway inflation can come suddenly and without warning

graphic image showing decline of the denarius over 200 y ears

Image courtesy of Visual Capitalist • • • Click to enlarge

We sometimes forget that inflation is a process rather than an event. One of the better-known examples of that axiom is the nearly two centuries-long debasement of Rome’s silver denarius. The Roman citizen who had the wisdom to hedge that process by going to gold at nearly any point along the way ended up preserving some portion, if not all, of his or her wealth. Those who did not suffered its debilitating effects. In the inflationary process, the line between cause and effect is not always a straight one, and its timing difficult to discern. History teaches us, though, that when runaway inflation does arrive, it comes suddenly, without notice, and with a vengeance. That is why it pays to view gold as a permanent and constantly maintained aspect of the investment portfolio. “A change of fortune,” Ben Franklin tells us, “hurts a wise Man no more than a change of the Moon.”
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(Related please see:  News & Views Special Report / March 2020 / Hedging the decline and fall of a currency – The baseline case for gold hasn’t changed much in 1700 years)

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The inflation giant has awakened. Why price growth will persist.

Barron’s/Brian Swint/7-23-2023

“To the contrary, inflation is likely to be a more persistent threat than it has been in decades, owing to the long list of powerful forces that have driven prices higher, and the limits of central-bank efforts to control it.”

USAGOLD note: Anyone who lived through the decade of the 1970s can tell you that claims that inflation had been tamed were often wildly overblown.

Inflation rate 1970s
bar chart showing the inflation rate during the 1970s
Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

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Daily Gold Market Report

Gold down in lackluster trading pushed by stronger dollar
Credit Suisse sees new record high for later in year, then $2355

(USAGOLD – 8/1/2023) – Gold is down this morning in lackluster trading pushed for the most part by a stronger dollar. It is down $10 at $1957. Silver is down 29¢ at $24.54. Credit Swiss is not allowing the summer drag alter its bullish stance on the yellow metal.

“We maintain our long-held view,” it says in an advisory released yesterday, “for a major floor to be found the key rising 200-DMA of $1,883 and for an eventual retest of major resistance at the $2,063/2,075 record highs to be seen. We still stay biased to an eventual break to new record highs later in the year, which would then be seen to open the door to a move to $2,150 next, then $2,355/65.”

bar chart showing the average annual price of gold from 1971 to present
Chart by USAGOLD • • • Data source: Macrotrends. net

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The role of gold in central bank reserves

LBMA/James Steele/July 2023

photo of stacks of gold at Bank of England gold room“Every independent central bank in the world holds at least some amount of bullion. Gold’s status as a currency is therefore borne out by the fact that bullion is counted as part of a central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. It is the only commodity-currency to have survived as money into the electronic age. This implies gold’s unique monetary status.”

USAGOLD note: Steele provides historical background on gold’s role as a central bank reserve asset and offers seven monetary functions that encourage it. All seven have to do with gold’s status as the ultimate store of value and final means of payment.

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The Fed’s newfound focus on data is bad news for the sliding dollar

MarketsInsider/George Glover/7-29-2023

photograph of many $100,000 stacks of $100 bills“The dollar is one of the few assets that’s gone down, rather than up this year – and analysts are warning that there could be bleaker times ahead for the greenback now that the Federal Reserve looks set to wind down its interest-rate hiking campaign.”

USAGOLD note: The most important data, as pointed out in this article, provide reasons for lowering rates which would continue to fuel the dollar’s slide against other currencies.

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Defective Fed policy ensures inflation’s revival

ZeroHedge-Bloomberg/Simon White/7-28-2023

graphic of the wonderful Wizard of Oz as depicted by Frank Baum“Federal Reserve rate hikes have had minimal disinflationary impact in this cycle, opening the door to a re-acceleration in inflation. At first glance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has little in common with the Wizard of Oz. But in one respect he may: pulling levers that do nothing.”

USAGOLD note: Yet another under-the-radar analysis predicting more inflation down the road – second coming……

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USAGOLD
Quality service & portfolio guidance since 1973

photo of stacks of gold coins American Eagles and Sourth African Krugerrands

USAGOLD ranks among the most reputable gold companies in the United States. Founded in the 1970s and still family-owned, it is one of the gold industry’s oldest and most respected names. The firm’s unblemished, zero-complaints record and solid reviews with the Better Business Bureau testify to the exceptional customer service and professional excellence which sets it apart from the competition.

USAGOLD specializes in gold and silver coins and bullion delivered to our client’s safekeeping. For over 49 years, we have resolutely advocated owning precious metals for asset preservation purposes rather than speculation. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold and silver owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find our firm a kindred spirit.

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Everyone thinks the Fed’s rate hike next week will be the final one — except the Fed

MarketWatch/Greg Robb/7-21-2023

Fed chairman powell angers questions at The Economic Club“Wall Street economists seem convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week and that this increase will turn out to be the final hike of this cycle. But they also don’t expect to hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell say so, at least not yet.”

USAGOLD note: Several analysts have come forward over the past month to state their belief that inflation is down but not out – in a lull rather than full remission. If that proves to be the case, the Fed could be chasing the inflation rate for many months to come.

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The collapse of the risk-free delusion: Implications for the $133 trillion bond market

International Man/Nick Giambruno/July 2023

cartoon of two happy travelers driving over cliff in car“Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history? The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the 30-year Treasury collapsed over 39%. Many other bonds did even worse.”

USAGOLD note: Giambruno warns that “It may be tempting to think the worst is over for bonds – it’s not. As you’ll see, the pain for bondholders is just starting.” The result he says will be a mass movement over time to reliable stores of value.

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Short and Sweet
“Bear markets are sneaky beasts. . .”

photo of a bear peaking out from behind a tree“Bear markets are sneaky beasts and they like to do their damage as secretly and as unobtrusively as possible. I hate to say it but somewhere ahead, the bears going to get it all together and the innocent little stream is going to turn into a waterfall. What can you do about it? Stay out of the market? Protect yourself by remaining in pure wealth, gold. For thousands of years, silver and gold have been treated as pure wealth. As the standard measures of wealth (stocks and bonds) have deteriorated, veteran investors have forgone profits and moved their assets into pure wealth.” – Richard Russell, King World News, 2016

 King World News called the late, great Richard Russell – who regaled us with his wisdom in the Dow Theory Letter for nearly half a century – “the greatest financial writer in history.” We can only guess what Russell would have had to say about the current state of affairs, but the quote above provides a clue.  Never predictable in his opinions, he was rock solid on one axiom throughout his career – the necessity and transcendence of gold as a permanent component of the well-balanced investment portfolio. As he said, so often, it helped him sleep at night.


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‘Something very strange’ explains why a US recession has been delayed

Yahoo!Finance/Matthew Fox/7-20-2023

graphic image expressing surprise-incredulity“It turns out that during the period of near-zero interest rates, especially leading up to the pandemic and during the pandemic, corporations took advantage and refinanced a ton of their liabilities into long-term, low-rate, fixed debt.”

USAGOLD note: How Wall Street analysts, with an ocean of data sources available to them, missed this important trend is equally strange.

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Details in multiple reports are telegraphing inflation will become a big issue in months ahead

Zero-Hedge-Bloomberg/Alyce Anders/7-28-2023

chalboard showing inflation pattern as chart with symbols for various currencies“With the labor market strong and the consumer ebullient, price increases are likely to continue to be effortless. S&P Global’s preliminary survey for July noted its output price index has been a reliable leading indicator of CPI — anticipating the easing of US CPI to 3% in June. But its recent fluctuation suggests further declines in CPI below 3% may prove tricky as firms seek to pass through higher costs and interest payments to customers.”

USAGOLD note: The current situation has the feel of the run-up to the inflation surge in 2020. Then purchasing managers were warning of price increases before the general public became aware of the burgeoning problem.

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Daily Gold Market Report

Gold off to a slow start to begin the week
Morris finds relevance in central banks buying gold ‘out of choice’ not official dictate

(USAGOLD – 7/31/2023) – Gold is off to a slow start to begin the week in sluggish summertime trading. It is level at $1961.50. Silver is up 5¢ at $24.46. On the month, gold is up 2.6% and silver is up a notable 7.1%. Charlie Morris, the UK-based financial analyst, offers an interesting take on the strong demand for gold among central banks.

“The remarkable thing,” says Charlie Morris in his most recent Atlas Pulse newsletter, “is that the gold standard withered in the 1970s, and other than the recent rumors surrounding a gold-backed BRICS currency, there has been no official need for central banks to own gold. They do so out of choice. It is remarkable how an informal gold standard of sorts is returning despite it being formally vanquished half a century ago. It means that gold is once again relevant despite that not being written down in the statute books.”

Gold and silver price performances
(%, July 2023)
Overlay chaart showing gold and silver price performances for July
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

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Deep recession to force full percentage-point fed cut Double Line warns

Bloomberg/Anchalee Worrachate/7-25-2023

graphic image-icon of bear stepping through round portal“Markets should brace for a deep US recession that warrants a dramatic one percentage-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, warned DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Sherman.”

USAGOLD note: Sherman thinks that the Fed will be slow to act in the face of a hard recession and then be forced to “unleash the biggest cut since the pandemic struck.” We should add that Doubletree’s Jeff Gundlach consistently has been among the most bearish Wall Street commentators.

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Notable Quotable

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“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”

Ernest Hemingway
 Notes on the Next War: A Serious Topical Letter 
Esquire magazine
September 1935

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Gold could hit record high of $2,500, says WisdomTree

TrustNet/Editor/7-18-2023

graphic image of gold bars in herringbone design rotated vertically

 

“Gold is on track to hit a new record high of $2,225 per ounce by this time next year, according to Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree. However, if things go right, the precious metal may shoot even higher to $2,500 per ounce.”

USAGOLD note: Wisdom Tree sees a convergence of influences taking gold to all-time highs.

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A $500 billion corporate-debt storm builds over global economy

Bloomberg/Jeremy Hill and Lucca De Paoli/7-18-2023

graphic illustration of a row of dominoes with a red dominoe ready to fall into the restgraphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend Read“It feels different than prior cycles. You’re going to see a lot of defaults.” – Richard Cooper, Cleary Gottlieb

USAGOLD note: The possibility of a full domino effect cannot be ruled out, in our view, and it could begin anywhere without warning.

 

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Short and Sweet
Worry about the return ‘of’ your money, not just the return ‘on’ it

photograph of a bag of gold coins
There is an old saying among veteran investors to worry not just about the return on your money but the return of your money. In the wealth game, emphasize defense when you need to, offense when it makes sense. At all times, remain diversified. And by that, we mean real diversification in the form of physical gold and silver coins and/or bullion outside the current fiat money system – not just an assortment of stocks and bonds denominated in the domestic currency. Keep in mind – if the currency erodes in value, the underlying value of those assets erodes along with it. A proper, genuine diversification addresses that problem now and in the future.


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What happened in Beijing? Here’s two theories on why the dollar dropped after Yellen’s visit

MarketWatch/Steve Goldstein/7-19-2023

“Kevin Muir, a former institutional trader that blogs at The Macro Tourist, said China didn’t like what they heard from Yellen so the country decided to send a message. ‘China has $3.2 trillion in FX reserves. Their biggest position will be the U.S. dollar and don’t think they will be shy about using it,’ he says.”

USAGOLD note: A long-held market fear resurfaces – China weaponizing its dollar reserves. It can sell or swap for gold or other currencies. It can continue to refrain from buying U.S. Treasures.

China US dollar reserves
bar chart showing China's foreign exchange reserves 2016 to present
Chart courtesy of Trading Economics

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Daily Gold Market Report

Gold takes positive turn as Japan signals reversal of dovish monetary policy

‘The desire for gold is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race.’
Gerald Loeb, Wall Street trader

(USAGOLD – 7/28/2023) – Gold took a positive turn this morning as Japan signaled it might begin reversing its dovish monetary policy – a move that surprised markets and sent the Japanese yen sharply higher in overseas markets. Gold is up $10 at $1959. Silver is up 19¢ at $29.39. “If inflation has indeed returned to Japan, which we believe it has,” says State Street’s Michael Metcalf, “the BoJ will find itself needing to raise rates just as hopes for interest rate cuts rise elsewhere. This should be a medium-term positive for the JPY [Japanese yen], which remains deeply undervalued.”

We came across this passage from a Dominic Frisby essay earlier this week and thought it worth passing along:

“The experience of beauty, whether derived from nature, art, music or even mathematics, correlates with activity in the emotional brain, the medial orbitofrontal cortex. Beauty has long been associated by philosophers with truth and purity – also qualities commonly associated with gold. Our instinct for gold and the emotions it inspires from beauty to desire are basic. There has not been a culture in history that did not appreciate the value of gold. It is a primal instinct. ‘The desire for gold,’ said Wall Street trader Gerald Loeb, ‘is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race.’” [Source: MoneyWeek]

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Notable Quotable

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“We sometimes forget that central banking, as we know it today, is, in fact, largely an invention of the past hundred years or so, even though a few central banks can trace their ancestry back to the early nineteenth century or before. It is a sobering fact that the prominence of central banks in this century has coincided with a general tendency towards more inflation, not less. By and large, if the overriding objective is price stability, we did better with the nineteenth-century gold standard and passive central banks, with currency boards, or even with ‘free banking.’ The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy.” – Paul Volcker, (From Deane and Pringle’s The Central Banks, 1995)

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Gold should be dead, but somehow it’s still adding value

MarketWatch/Brett Arends/7-15-2023

graphic of a satisfied investor sitting atop a pile of gold barsThe first thing is that over the past century including some gold in your portfolio alongside stocks and bonds has genuinely added value. It has produced higher average returns, less volatility and fewer of those disastrous ‘lost decades’ where your portfolio ended up whistling Dixie.”

USAGOLD note: Arends has never been an ardent supporter of gold, but in this article he reluctantly makes concessions.… To make a long story short, a portfolio that includes a 10% gold diversification over the long run does better than one that doesn’t. How would a 20% diversification look?

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Goldman chief economist cuts recession probability to 20%, dismisses yield-curve inversion

MarketWatch/Steve Goldstein/7-18-2023

cartoon illustration of steady winds the race rabbit vs wolf“Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, trimmed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% — well below the 54% median among forecasters who participated in the last Wall Street Journey survey.”

USAGOLD note: Hatzius, in fact, believes the economy is going to grow “albeit below trend pace.”

 

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Short & Sweet
The true nature of inflation

ramirez showing the the 31¢ dollar adjusted for inflationCartoon courtesy of Michael P. Ramirez.com

“The nature of inflation is widely misunderstood and misinterpreted,” writes analyst Dave Kranzler in an Investing.com overview, “‘Inflation’ and ‘currency devaluation’ are tautological—they are two phrases that mean the same thing. … Dollar devaluation has been occurring since the early 1970’s. The value of the dollar relative to gold (real money) has declined 98%. In 1971, $40,000 would buy a 4,000 square foot home in a good suburb. Now it takes $700,000 on average to buy that same home. Price inflation is the evidence of currency devaluation. The CPI is not a real measure of price inflation. The CPI is methodically massaged – starting with the Arthur Burns Federal Reserve (it was his idea) to hide the real degree of currency devaluation from all of the money that has been printed since 1971.”

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The decline and fall of the U.S. dollar

The Heritage Foundation/EJ Antoni/7-13-2023

graphic illustration of US capital spewing dollars

“The U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is one of America’s greatest strengths, but President Joe Biden seems hellbent on toppling the dollar from its throne through both his domestic and foreign policy agenda. Americans need to pay attention because we’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well.”

USAGOLD note: The Biden Administration is only one of the players undermining the dollar. Congress is equally culpable as is the Federal Reserve which is quick to turn to money printing at the first signs of a crisis.

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Daily Gold Market Report

Gold pushes higher in Fed aftermath
JPMorgan sees gold hitting ‘fresh records in 2024’

(USAGOLD – 7/27/2023) – Gold pushed higher in the aftermath of yesterday’s Fed hike and press conference. It is up $5 at $1978.50. Silver is up 13¢ at $25.12. The market reaction to yesterday’s events was generally subdued as Chairman Powell emphasized future decisions would be data-driven leaving market sentiment pretty much where it was prior to the meeting – up in the air and open to interpretation.

JP Morgan sees the Fed turning dovish by the second quarter of next year – a shift it believes will push gold to new record levels during 2024. “We’re in a very prime place,” says Greg Shearer, the firm’s director of commodities research, “where we think gold ownership and long allocation to gold and silver is something that acts as both a late cycle diversifier and something that will perform as we look to the next sort of 12, 18 months.… There is an eagerness here to really buy in and diversify allocation away from currencies.” [Source: Yahoo!Finance-Bloomberg]

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Notable Quotable

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“I’m a fan of gold. I think gold’s valuable in a crisis. If the world turns to hell, the war expands and gets worse, God forbid a nuclear weapon is used, I think people are going to say: ‘How do I know what anything’s worth anymore? I’m going to make sure I have some gold because I don’t want to not have money at a time of desperation.’ It may never come to that, but I think it’s prudent to have a little bit of your portfolio in gold.” – Seth Klarman, Baupost Capital, Harvard University interview at Yahoo

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Pozsar on the ‘monetary divorce’ from the dollar

Zero Hedge/Tyler Durden/7-17-2023

photo of gold bar graph against $100 US note

“Gold is definitely something that’s coming back as a theme… we are seeing this more and more in the data that especially the countries that are not geopolitically aligned to the US are shunning Treasuries and shunning the dollar and they are buying gold instead.”

USAGOLD note: Pozsar elaborates on the evolving monetary system and the dollar and gold’s role in it.

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High-yield bond exodus gathers pace as 10% drains from funds

Yahoo!Finance-Bloomberg/Olivia Rainmonde/7-14-2023

cartoon on sticking with gold over stocks

“Investors have pulled more money out of US junk-bond funds than from any other asset class so far this year, according to a report by Bank of America.”

USAGOLD note: It’s not just the return on your money, but the return of your money that’s important.

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Short and Sweet
Structuring your portfolio for the rest of the 2020s

graphic illustration of gold coin stacks against a chart background

“Precious metals are and always have been the ultimate insurance,” says Pro Aurum’s Robert Hartman in an interview with Claudio Grass. “They provide protection both against state failures and against mistakes in the monetary policy of the central banks. Every investor who looks into the history books sees that both have happened over and over again in the past centuries. From that perspective, investing in physical gold and silver is a common-sense precaution and a necessary part of any wealth preservation plan. Investors and ordinary savers ignore this at their peril and the failure to include precious metals in one’s portfolio is pure negligence.”

There are essentially two broad schools of thought alive and well in the gold market. The first holds that crisis is around the corner and, as a result, precious metals should be owned to profit from the event. The second holds that crisis is a permanent fixture in the market dynamic and that the portfolio should always include precious metals as the ultimate safe haven. The first buyer sees precious metals as investment products, i.e., buy now and sell later when the time is right. The second considers gold and silver, like Hartmann, as insurance products to be held for the long run. Some combine the two, allocating one part of their precious metals portfolio for trading purposes and another as a permanent, or semi-permanent, store of value. The novice precious metals owner must decide where he or she stands in this regard because it determines, in turn, which products to include in the portfolio and to what degree.

Investors often ask about the percentage commitment one should make to precious metals in a well-balanced investment portfolio. Analyst Michael Fitzsimmons offered an interesting take on that subject in a Seeking Alpha editorial last fall, “Assuming a well-diversified portfolio (which does include cash for emergencies),” he says, “my belief is that middle-class investors (net worth under $1 million), should own at least 5-10% in gold. I also believe that as an American investor’s net worth climbs, the higher that percentage should be because, in my opinion, he or she simply has more to lose by a falling US$. For instance, an investor with a net worth of $2-5 million might have a 15-20% exposure to gold; $10 million, perhaps a 30-40% exposure.” As it has for many years, USAGOLD recommends a diversification of between 10% and 30% depending on your view of the risks at large in the economy and financial markets.


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Markets are propelled by what hasn’t happened

Bloomberg/Mohamed A. El-Erian/7-1 7-2023

illustration of recession at next exit with long road ahead“Whether you are examining the evolution of the US economy or the impact of monetary policy, one of the noteworthy developments this year is not what has happened but rather what has not.”

USAGOLD note: It’s been a year of surprises and unexpected serenity…… El-Erian offers food for thought in this Bloomberg piece.

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No DGMR today. Back tomorrow – 7/27/2023

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Notable Quotable

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“The truth, yet unspoken from on high is that radical monetary policy begets more radical monetary policy.”
James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

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Dollar’s busted bull run has doomsayers calling end of era

Bloomberg/Alice Atkins and Carter Johnson/7-16-2023

“The greenback’s worst slump since November has a bevy of strategists and investors saying a turning point is finally at hand for the world’s primary reserve currency. If they’re right, there will be far-reaching consequences for global economies and financial markets.”

USAGOLD note: Whatever it does against other currencies in the short term, the dollar’s history over the long run has been one of steady debasement and loss of purchasing power, and that era, in our view, is far from over.

The purchasing power of the US dollar and gold
(%, 1971-present)

overlay line chart showing gold price and purchasing power of the US dollar
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

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India ties up with UAE to settle trades in rupees

Reuters/Arpan Chaturvedi/7-15-2023

“India has signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates that will allow it to settle trade in rupees instead of dollars, boosting India’s efforts to cut transaction costs by eliminating dollar conversions.”

USAGOLD note: Is cutting transactional costs the real reason for this new arrangement?

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Short and Sweet
New smart money queues up in the gold market

graphic image of investors queuing up

First institutions and funds came over to gold’s corner, then central banks. Now, a whole new grouping of professional investors – pension funds, private wealth management, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds. “It’s a bit like what happened to big tech,” says highly respected economist Mohammed El-Erian. “People like [gold] because it’s defensive. People like it because it’s a reflation trade. People like it because it’s inflation protection.  What we are starting to see with the narrative about gold is starting to be like the narrative about big tech.  It gives you everything.” These groups bring considerable purchasing power and market savvy to the table. One immediate result might be more buying interest on price dips.  Another might be a better blend of investment psychology and objectives that could have a settling effect on the market overall.


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Battle lines are drawn

Credit Bubble Bulletin/Doug Noland/7-14-2023

ramirez suggesting Biden like Carter with stagflation in the wingsCartoon courtesy of MichaelPRamirez.com

Selected quotes

“I’m challenged to find significant evidence Fed policy is ‘starting to bite hard.’ My analytical framework prioritizes financial conditions. Generally, tighter market liquidity conditions presage tighter lending, slower Credit growth and weakened demand. Markets lead economic performance – not vice versa. Booming markets generate self-reinforcing liquidity, loose conditions and asset inflation, which work to bolster confidence and boost spending.”

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“I see inflation ebbing and flowing – with much more flow than ebb over time. But what conventional analysis sees as the previous inflation normal, I view as aberrational. Inflation risk remains highly elevated in New Cycle Dynamics. This exceptionally hot weekend will remind us of newfound climate hostilities. And there is deglobalization, with heightened China tensions adding to trade, supply-chain and pricing uncertainties.”

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“Bubbling markets readily disregard myriad stability risks. Inflation is seen in full retreat, with policy tightening having about run its course. Recession risks have dissipated. It’s difficult for me to imagine a backdrop of greater stability risk. Inflation risk remains highly elevated. The risk of bursting financial Bubbles is extreme. Fed rate increases have failed to tighten market conditions, with speculation and speculative leverage becoming only more acute. And fearless markets are more confident than ever that underlying fragilities ensure central bankers won’t risk bursting Bubbles.”

 

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Notable Quotable

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“The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and as soon as time or accident removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight.”

Edward Gibbon
The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire

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Taking the temperature

Oaktree/Howard Marks/7-10-2023

symbolic representation of wisdom as an owl perched on a golden keyEveryone can study economics, finance, and accounting and learn how the markets are supposed to work. But superior investment results come from exploiting the differences between how things are supposed to work and how they actually do work in the real world.”

USAGOLD note: The wisdom of Howard Marks at the link……

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Simon White: In real terms, equities likely to be one of the poorest performing asset classes

Zero Hedge/Simon White/7-11-2023

graphic image of 1970s reducs coming soon to an economy near you“Where things could go seriously awry for stocks is if Powell’s immediate response to re-accelerating inflation is to go ‘full Volcker. But I find that unlikely. Volcker was path dependent: we had to go through Arthur Burns and William Miller to get to the point where their successor had a mandate to cause a deep recession to neuter inflation. Powell isn’t there yet. On top of that, next year is an election year, and resisting cutting rates as the economy weakens might be the closest the Fed gets to hiking.”

USAGOLD note: White is Bloomberg’s macro strategist. He says, “We have several of the same dynamics today as in the 1970s.”