Gold gives up much of this week’s gains as recession thinking regains upper hand

(USAGOLD – 1/22/2021) – Gold gave up much of its gains over the past week this morning as commodities in general sold off and recession thinking regained the upper hand in financial markets. The yellow metal is down $31 at $1841. Silver is down 80¢ at $25.21. Matterhorn Asset Management’s Matthew Piepenburg sees opportunity in the precious metals’ market sell-off of the past few weeks.

“Although it’s normal to expect a correction phase within a larger bull market for both silver and gold,” he explains in an article posted at King World News, “the price retracements of late signal a buy opportunity for precious metal investors, not grounds for a bearish panic—unless you’re a gold trader blind to technical buy/sell signals. The broader bull market in gold today is much different than the bull markets of 1971 to 1978, or 2010, which saw very little interest/demand from western buyers. Demand going forward will in fact be driven more by western than eastern buyers, though current investors can’t ignore declining demand from China, Russia or India going forward. That said, the gold-silver dance described above will be very different going forward as both assets rally in synch rather than two steps up, one step back.”

Chart of the Day

bar chart showing gold's average annual prices 1971-2020

Sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], ICE Benchmark Administrtation [IBA]

USAGOLD note:  Most of our readers know that gold had a very good year in 2020 but few know that it posted its highest average annual price ever – $1770 per ounce.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold, silver take a breather after yesterday’s solid gains, poised for a run at key levels

(USAGOLD – 1/21/2021) – Gold looks to be taking a breather after yesterday’s solid gains. It is down $4 at $1869. Silver is down 4¢ at $25.89. Both look to be poised for a run at key levels – $1900 for gold and $26 for silver. Van Eck’s Joe Foster sees the same set of drivers that pushed gold higher in 2020 remaining in force for 2021 – market distortions (the mania), the huge debt load shouldered by both governments and corporations, worries over the Biden-effect, a possible vaccination-induced reenactment of the Roaring 20s (inflation), and persistent dollar weakness.

“Gold,” he says in a report released by the firm yesterday, “has been in a bull market since December 2015. The chart pattern of this market looks similar to the first five years of the 2001 to 2011 bull market. It will be interesting to see if the chart similarities continue. After 2006, the former bull market found catalysts in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the European Debt Crisis in 2010. The current bull market will certainly need further catalysts to realize similar gains. The risks we have outlined along with the dollar’s trend could provide such catalysts.”

Chart of the Day

Silver Price
Percent increase or decrease over prior year
2000-2020

bar chart showing annual average gains in silver 2000 to 2020

Data source: macrotrends.net• • • Chart by USAGOLD.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: In 2020, silver recorded its best percentage gain in a decade – 46.3% – and posted its third largest gain over the 20 year period. It has posted gains – sometimes significant – in twelve of the last twenty years.
Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold pushes higher as Wall Street mulls over the massive Biden borrow and spend economic program

(USAGOLD – 1/20/2021) – Gold pushed higher in early U.S. trading as Wall Street mulled over how the big-spending, debt-driven Biden economic program will play in financial markets. It is up $16 at $1858.50. Silver is up 24¢ at $25.53. Degussa’s Thorsten Polleit has some clear ideas where all of this will lead us in general and what the impact will be on one market in particular – precious metals.

“Global debt,” he writes in the firm’s January market report headlined The Great Gold and Silver Bull Market Is On, “has reached a level where it is no longer likely that central banks will allow interest rates to rise for the foreseeable future, and central banks will continue to finance government spending sprees willingly. Taken together, it does not take much to realise that the purchasing power of the US- dollar, euro, and other currencies will be further debased in what lays ahead. It is against this backdrop that we remain bullish on precious metals. We believe (and of course acknowledge the uncertainty that surrounds such a statement) that the price of gold could reach 2,450 USD/oz towards the end of 2021 (based on current prices, a 32% gain); the silver price could go up to 47 USD/oz (+87%) …” 

Chart of the Day

chart showing cycle of emotions from optimism to euphora to despondence and back eventually to optimism again

Chart note: “A speculative frenzy is sweeping Wall Street and world markets,” Bloomberg reported at the end of December. Cedric Ozazman, chief investment officer at Reyl & Cie in Geneva, commented at the time that “sentiment indicators are moving to euphoria.” Things have gotten even more frenetic since. In that same article, Bloomberg pointed out that global stocks are now worth $100 trillion and that “some $3 trillion of corporate bonds are trading with negative yields.”

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold drifts higher; MKS Pamp sees the metal at $2300 in 2021

(USAGOLD – 1/19/2021) – Gold seesawed around the $1840 level in quiet overseas trading with little in the way of news to nudge it more convincingly in one direction or the other. Incoming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before Congress today as part of her confirmation process, but not much is expected in the way of surprises. As it is, the dollar, one of the subjects she is expected to address, is trading lower, bond yields are rising, and gold is drifting slightly higher – up $1.50 in early trading at $1841. Silver is up 16¢ at $25.20. In MKS Pamp Group’s just-released Precious Metals Forecast 2021, Frederic Panizzutti, who manages the refiner’s Dubai office, forecasts a strong recovery for gold in 2021.

We expect 2021 to be another bullish year,” he writes. “While the global economic recovery shows some positive signs, we will continue to face uncertainties especially in the first half of the year. In the context of low global real interest rates, a slow recovery in growth, higher market volatility and a weakening USD, gold shall remain an asset of choice in investors’ portfolios as a safe haven and insurance against disruptions. More inflows into ETFs and increased physical demand, especially towards the second half of the year, shall comfort the upside trend. We expect gold to hit a new all-time high at 2300.00 USD/Ounce.”

Chart of the Day

U.S. Dollar Index
(One year)

Line chart showing the performance of the US Dollar Index over the past 12 months in percent

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: A flight from safe havens drove gold’s selloff over the past two weeks – that departure, principally from the bond market, added high octane to the speculative stock market frenzy. Many analysts believe that the most dangerous outcome from current Federal Reserve policy will be a sharp decline in the dollar. Over the past twelve months, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 7% and 11.5% from highs this past March.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold gets back on the plus side in quiet holiday trading

(USAGOLD – 1/18/2021) – Gold got back on the plus side this morning in quiet holiday trading. It is up $7 at $1836.50. Silver is up 12¢ at $24.98. Analysts, generally speaking, are giving commodities positive reviews for the upcoming year. As shown in our Chart of the Day, though, the sector underperformed other key assets in 2020. A number of top forecasters, including Goldman Sachs, believe all that will change in 2021 as the neglected asset class garners renewed investor attention. Jeff Currie, the firm’s chief commodity analyst, went so far as to say the commodities “ship has sailed. If you look at all the classic telltale signs of a structural bull market, you have the weak dollar, grain prices…a client called corn ‘bitcorn’ recently — and then you have what’s going on in the metals markets.”

Corny references aside, gold – generally considered top dog in the commodity realm – outperformed all the stock indices in 2020 save the NASDAQ, according to the World Gold Council survey released last week. (The study leaves out silver, however, which outperformed both gold and the NASDAQ.) “Led by gold,” says Bloomberg commodity analyst Mike McGlone in a tweet late last week, “we expect broad commodities to continue advancing in 2021 and view energy as the most vulnerable sector.” Gold, continues McGlone, “four ounces of which has been roughly of equal value to an acre of Iowa farmland since 1973, or the S&P 500 Total Return Index since 1997 – may be on the rise, notably vs. the stock market.”

Chart of the Day

bar chart showing gold's performance against other major asset classes

Chart note:  This chart shows gold’s strong performance versus other major asset classes in 2020 outdone only by the high-flying NASDAQ. Not shown? Silver, the year’s overall  top performer –  up 46%.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold holds line at $1850. JP Morgan increases weighting in commodities and Metals Focus sees high $30s for silver by year end

(USAGOLD – 1/15/2021) – Gold continued to hold the line at the $1850 mark this morning, ignoring the massive Biden stimulus program and the ongoing political turmoil in the national capital. It is up $3 on the day at $1851. Silver is down 18¢ at $25.40. JP Morgan lightened up on its bond portfolio and raised its exposure in the commodities market, according to Bloomberg’s morning e-mail. “Commodities,” says the news service, “will benefit from strong economic growth and fading risks from issues like the trade war, pandemic, and Brexit.” If that be the case, silver, which enjoys status both as a commodity and a monetary metal, could be among the beneficiaries. Gaining 46% last year, the top performer in the commodities sector also outpaced all major investments, including the much-publicized NASDAQ index.

Nikos Kavalis, a founding partner in London-based research firm, Metals Focus, tells why he thinks the coming year could be a good one for silver. “Although the crisis did weigh on silver demand,” he says in an overview for 2021 published by the Singapore Bullion Marketing Association, it was less pronounced than for gold. This reflects silver’s lower reliance on price elastic and discretionary demand segments, being a largely industrial metal and with some offset from rising bar and coin demand in the West…Looking ahead, we have little doubt that the drivers of gold demand will also boost silver’s appeal to investors. In addition, owing to its typically more volatile nature, we would expect silver to outperform gold overall in 2021, peaking in the high $30s before year-end.”

Chart of the Day

Gold and Silver
(Full year, 2020)
overlay chart showing the percentage gains in gold and silver for 2020

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: For the record, here is the chart showing gold and silver’s percentage gains for 2020. Gold was up 24.21% and silver was up 46.3% – the top-performing major asset for 2020.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold rangebound despite upcoming Biden administration stimulus announcement

(USAGOLD –1/14/2021) – Gold remained range-bound despite reports circulating that the incoming Biden administration is preparing to unveil a $2 trillion stimulus program – one that is likely to sail through the new Democrat-controlled Congress. Some might think that odd since it was thoughts of stimulus dancing through Wall Street’s mind that sent both gold and stocks soaring at the end of last year. A quick look at the 10-year bond yield – now at 1.1% – explains why things might be different at this juncture. (Please see “The bubble either inflates or bursts…”(1/12/2021) As it stands, gold is down $5 at $1843. Silver is up 13¢ at $25.42. Stocks, now up marginally on the day, seem equally uninspired. It might take a while, as it did early last year, for reality to impose itself on the markets with full force, but Crescat Capital’s Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa see it as inevitable – albeit for different reasons.

“The problem,” they write in a recently released report, “is that money printing married with fiscal spending is crashing head-on with an emerging commodity supply problem that will likely stir up rising inflation which is bearish for both equities and fixed income. Get ready for a volatile 2021, the year of reckoning for twin asset bubbles as the world attempts to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. Global central banks added a total of $9.1 trillion of assets to their balance sheets in 2020. To compare, this year’s monetary stimulus was about three times their response to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. We also saw at least $25 trillion of newly issued debt worldwide while the aggregate value of all negative yielding bonds reached close to $18 trillion in 2020. With this macro backdrop, it is staggering to see a monetary metal like silver still trading sub $30/oz.”

Chart of the Day

bar chart showing central bank net gold sales and purchases 2002-2020

 Click to enlarge

Chart note:  Central banks remained net buyers of gold in 2020, though the pace slowed somewhat. “There are good reasons,” says the World Gold Council in a report issued yesterday, “why central banks continue to favor gold as part of their foreign reserves which, combined with the low interest rate environment, continue to make gold attractive.” The Council expects 2021 to be “not much different” from the year just ended.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold drifts higher in quiet mid-week trading

(USAGOLD –1/13/2021) – Gold drifted higher in quiet mid-week trading, with the $1850 looking like the support level – at least for now. It is up $3 at $1860. Silver is down 12¢ at $25.52. Generally speaking, the markets are in the quiet mode this morning, with nothing standing out save the latest chapter in the unfolding saga in Washington. Of late, the financial world has had its eye on rising longer-term bond yields. “[I]nvestors searching for an explanation [for gold’s recent plunge],” writes Gold Newsletter‘s Brien Lundin in a client advisory e-mailed yesterday, “need to remember one basic fact: The bond market drives everything.” Rising yields and weakness in the gold market have created something of a deja vu harkening back to last March’s “Great Liquidity Crisis.” (Please see “The bubble either inflates or bursts…”(1/12/2021) Gold sold off early in that crisis then surged as concern about the widespread systemic risks and the effect on the dollar became apparent. On the other hand, the dollar went into a steep retreat, as shown in this morning’s Chart of the Day. As you can see, the two took separate paths beginning early in 2020 – a process that accelerated as the year progressed.

Chart of the Day

overlay chart showing the US Dollar Index and gold divergence in 2020

Sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], Federal Reserve Board of Governors, ICE Benchmark Administration
Click to enlarge

 

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold reverses course in overnight market, gives most of it back in early U.S. trading

(USAGOLD –1/12/2021) – Gold reversed course in the overnight market after finding support near the $1850 level, then gave back most of those gains early in the U.S. trading session after being up almost $18. The yellow metal is now up $2.50 on the day at $1848.  Silver is up 34¢ at $25.33. After all is said and done, gold is down about 5% year to date. Silver, the more volatile of the primary precious metals, is down just over 7% so far this year. We invite you to read the post immediately below for a more detailed view of the latest correction.

Sovereign Man’s Simon Black sees trouble ahead for the dollar once the spending and monetary policies envisioned under the new Biden administration are fully deployed, and that could resonate in the gold market. “[T]here will likely be plenty of cooperation between the Fed and Treasury to print absurd quantities of money this year,” he writes in his outlook for 2021. “Certainly, there will be some bondholders who extend their securities. But most likely the Fed will need to print another $3+ trillion, pushing its balance sheet beyond the $10 trillion mark. And if they really go down this destructive path– $30 trillion national debt, a $10 trillion Fed balance sheet– then 2021 may be the year that the world finally loses confidence in the US dollar. On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years.”

Chart of the Day

bar chart showing US Mint sales of silver bullion coins through 2020

Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note:  U.S. Mint silver bullion coin sales surged in 2020, posting their best year since 2016, and the new year is off to a strong start if activity at USAGOLD is any indicator.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold continues retreat; ‘everyone knows they need a safe haven’ – Merryn Somerset Webb in weekend FT

(USAGOLD –1/11/2021) – Gold continued its retreat as a follow-up to Friday’s plunge. The yellow metal is down another $14 at $1838. Silver is down 66¢ at $24.86. The metals’ drop coincides with an across-the-board slide in commodities prices this morning. The dollar is up marginally and U.S. Treasuries, gold’s safe-haven competitor, seem to have stabilized – at least for the moment. For a more detailed assessment of the current market mix, we invite you to scroll further down the page for this past Friday’s Afternoon Update.

MoneyWeek’s Merryn Somerset Webb posted a reminder of gold’s baseline portfolio role in the Financial Times’ over the weekend. “Think of the reasons to hold gold,” she writes. “If inflation is coming (and it probably is) you want to hold a real asset that can hedge against it — one that can’t be inflated away by relentless money creation and currency debasement. That’s particularly the case in an era of very low interest rates. If governments work to keep interest rates lower than inflation in order to reduce the real value of their horrible debt burdens, everyone knows they need a safe haven, but everyone also knows the traditional ones (government bonds) no longer offer that safe haven. That turns us to gold, the one asset that has a 3,000-year record of protecting purchasing power. No wonder the gold price is up around 40 per cent since 2018. I hold a lot of gold for all these reasons.”

Chart of the Day

bar chart showing US Mint sales of gold bullion coins in ounces through 2020Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note:  U.S. Mint sales of gold bullion coins posted their best year since 2016 at 1.078 million ounces and the sixth-best year since 2000

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

No DMR today ……

Posted in Daily Market Report, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold settles down after yesterday’s counterintuitive waterfall drop

(USAGOLD – 1/7/2021) –  Gold has settled down a bit from yesterday’s waterfall drop. It is down $4 at $1917. Silver is down 22¢ at $27.16. Analysts, by and large, remain at a loss to explain the counterintuitive plunge. Washington’s gridlock is now broken in favor of the fiscally-challenged Democrats. So why the big selloff? Yesterday we made a passing reference in this report to investors selling the news out of Georgia. Gold Newsletter’s Brien Lundin expanded on that notion in a special advisory issued yesterday afternoon.

“Combined with silver failing to leverage gold’s move to the downside,” he said, “it seems that speculators using gold’s poor cousin and the mining stocks to play the gold theme aren’t too enthusiastic about jumping ship. So why has gold sold off, despite news that should be sending the metals much higher? Two reasons, in my opinion. First is the usual trader’s mentality of ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ Lots of hot money had placed bets in recent weeks on such an outcome, and these speculators rushed to take profits once the game ended. This provided the initial selling pressure. Next came the bond market’s reaction to the development, with yields understandably jumping as confidence waned in the future fiscal responsibility of the republic.”

Chart of the Day

Silver Price
Percent increase or decrease over prior year
2000-2020
bar chart showing annual average gains in silver 2000 to 2020Data source: macrotrends.net• • • Chart by USAGOLD.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: In 2020, silver recorded its best percentage gain in a decade – 46.3%.  It has posted gains in twelve of the last twenty years.
Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold attempts recovery from major wave of overnight selling. Piepenberg: ‘smart money understands the difference between staying rich and getting rich’

(USAGOLD – 1/6/2021) – Gold recovered quickly from a major wave of selling in overnight markets that took the metal from two-month highs at $1956 to $1925 at one point. It is now trading at $1938 – down $14 on the day. Silver is down 17¢ at $27.47. The downward spike caught many by surprise as there was no apparent reason for it, except perhaps some entity taking profits on a massive position, i.e., selling the news out of Georgia. After all, at $1956, gold had already posted a more than 4% gain in 2021 on a wave of New Year buying. Signals Matters’ Matthew Peipenberg had some interesting things to say about gold buyers in a piece posted recently at the GoldEagle website.

“Because unlike the straw and mud of fiat currencies and dangerously overvalued stocks and bonds,” he writes, “gold rises strong (rather than falls into dust) when the market wolf huffs and puffs and blows bad portfolios down. Smart money, like just about anything smart, including that third little piggy above, are by nature a smaller circle, a more far-sighted minority, and thus think more of steady wealth preservation than easy wealth creation. In short, the smart money understands the difference between staying rich and getting rich. Physical gold, as a timeless (rather than trendy or pass?) instrument of wealth preservation, serves as the historically-confirmed and surest way to ensure one’s wealth against the ravages of currency debasement.” Our Chart of the Day unambiguously supports Piepenberg’s argument. Gold has posted gains in sixteen of the last twenty years.

Chart of the Day

Gold Price
Percent increase or decrease over prior year
2000-2020bar chart showing gold's annual percentage increase 2000-2020Data sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], ICE Benchmark Association
Chart by USAGOLD.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note:  For the full year 2020, gold turned in its best year since 2010, rising over 24% and ending the year at the $1900 mark. As you can see, gold posted gains in sixteen of the last twenty years – a formidable record by any standard.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Precious metals extend yesterday’s strong advance; U.S. Mint posts best year for bullion coin sales since 2016

(USAGOLD – 1/5/2021) – Gold and silver extended their advances this morning with the yellow metal pushing over the $1950 mark to trade at $1952 – up $6.50 on the day. Silver is up 16¢ at $27.47. “Demand for United States Mint bullion products,” reports CoinNet.com, “surged in 2020 to the highest points in several years – for both gold and silver coins…2020 American Eagle silver coins jumped to 30,089,500 ounces this year, more than doubling the amount of a year ago…2020 American Eagle silver coins jumped to 30,089,500 ounces this year, more than doubling the amount of a year ago.” In both the gold and silver bullion coin categories, 2020 sales were the best since 2016. The demand for modern bullion coins is, to a large extent, the mirror image of declining currencies against gold, as shown in our Chart of the Day.

Chart of the Day

Gold in Major Currencies
Indian rupee, Chinese yuan, British pound, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, European euro

line chart showing the performance of gold in various currencies for 2020

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: Gold rose sharply in six of the world’s top currencies in 2020 – Indian rupee (+28.1%); Chinese yuan (+17.3%); British pound (+21.2%); U.S. dollar (+25.1%); Japanese yen (+18.9%) and European euro (+14.8%). Gold’s gain in those currencies reflects concern among the citizenry of present and future debasement as well as the attendant systemic risks.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold, silver greet the new year with big bang rallies

(USAGOLD – 1/4/2021) – Gold and silver greeted the new year with big bang rallies likely to echo in global financial markets. Gold blew past the $1900 barrier to trade at $1943 – up $42 on the day. Silver is up 1.07¢ at $27.54. Analysts attributed the sharp increases to declining real rates of return and building inflation concerns. Too, this morning’s increase follows gold’s best annual gain in a decade at a little over 24%. Silver was up 46% in 2020. (Please see this morning’s Chart of the Day.) The dollar is down sharply against the yuan, yen, and euro this morning, and commodities across the boards are staging a rally.

“Big, fat deficits often beget rising inflation,” writes stock market analyst Eric Fry in an Investor’s Place article, “which usually triggers the gold-buying impulse. That’s because massive government spending always leads to some form of money printing, which is the thing we call inflation. In times past, the U.S. government would be coy about money printing — but no more. These days, the government runs its printing presses in broad daylight, extolls them as sophisticated monetary tactics, and adorns them with elegant names like ‘quantitative easing.'”

Chart of the Day

Gold – Silver – Dow Jones Industrial Average
(Full year, 2020, in percent)

line chart showing final percentage increases for gold, silver and stocks 2020

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note:  We have tracked this series all year and this is the final tally for 2020. Gold was up 24.1%, silver was up 46.3% and stocks were up 6%.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |


Gold inches higher as 2020 grinds to a close; gold up 5.7% in December, silver 16%, DJIA 2.7% (!)

(USAGOLD – 12/30/2020) – Gold inched higher in quiet year-end trading, responding for the most part to a weaker dollar. It is up $4 at $1885.50. Silver is up 10¢ at $26.40. As 2020 grinds to a close and media emphasis remains riveted on stocks, gold is up 5.7% in December and silver is up 16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for reference purposes, is up 2.7%(!). Please see our Chart of the Day below.

Through much of 2020, the Federal Reserve has gone studiously about the business of deploying QE4 – a policy many see as having done the lion’s share of work pulling the economy and markets from disaster’s edge. Two of the most pressing issues markets will need to sort out in 2021 is how the latest round of quantitative easing will play out in the economy, and the effect on financial markets, including precious metals. The speculation will undoubtedly add an interesting twist to the annual flood of year-end reviews and new year forecasts.

“[I]nstruments such as inflation swaps have started to rally,” says analyst Mike O’Sullivan in a Forbes article posted yesterday, “and if anything the market risk here is that central bankers regard a long overdue pick up in inflation as ‘a good thing’, do not adjust policy to it and thereby spur an ‘inflation trade’ in commodities, cyclical equities but that sees an accelerating move out of bonds. 2021 might be the first time in over a decade when inflation forecasters may get what they wish for.”

Chart of the Day

overlay chart showing percentage gains for gold silver and stocks for December 2020

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes |

Gold advances cautiously in subdued year-end trading; gold and silver no longer a ‘contrarian investment’

(USAGOLD – 12/29/2020) – Gold advanced cautiously in subdued year-end trading as the dollar took a turn to the south and markets, in general, weighed the effects of Washington’s relief package. It is up $7 this morning at $1883. Silver is down 3¢ at $26.28. As mentioned yesterday, while market emphasis has been on the now-signed, sealed, and delivered pandemic relief package, the Federal Reserve has gone about the business of deploying QE4 – a policy many see as having done the lion’s share of work pulling the economy and markets from disaster’s edge.

In this morning’s report, we elaborate on that perception with a couple of charts (see below) that quantify the Fed policy. Two of the most pressing issues markets will need to sort out in 2021 is how the latest round of quantitative easing will play out in the economy and what the effect is likely to be on financial markets, including precious metals. The speculation will undoubtedly add an interesting twist to the annual flood of year-end reviews and new year forecasts.

Crescat Capital’s Kevin Smith believes we are entering a period of across the board currency devaluations that will benefit gold and silver owners. “Analytically minded investors will soon be rotating, if not stampeding, out of expensive deflation-era growth equities and fixed income securities and into cheap hard assets, creating a reversal in the 30-year declining trend of money velocity,” he says in an article posted at the MarketWatch website. “To be frank, buying gold or silver is not a contrarian investment position today,” Smith wrote. “There are enough people in agreement with the idea that all government-backed fiat currencies are doomed to some level of devaluation through inflation due to the level of fiscal and monetary imprudence and unsustainable debt imbalances in the financial system.”

Chart[s] of the Day

bar chart showing Federal purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities in aggregate since 2008

bar chart showing the change in Federal Reserve purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities since 2008

Sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)

Chart note 1: These charts show Federal Reserve combined purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities – a policy operation widely referred to as quantitative easing (QE).  We are now immersed in QE4 – clearly identified on both charts’ far-right as the largest operation to date. These charts do not include Fed purchases of corporate bonds – another important component of QE4. The three prior quantitative easings are most identifiable on the bottom chart in 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Chart note 2: You can monitor these charts and many other data sets of interest to precious metals owners at our Monetary Trends and Indicators page. The charts automatically update on a feed from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold dallies, silver rallies to start final trading week of the year

(USAGOLD – 12-28-2020) – Gold dallied while silver rallied to start the final trading week of the year. The yellow metal is up $6 at $1888 (+0.3%). Silver, which a good many investors believe will be a direct beneficiary of the Biden administration’s emphasis on a green economy, is up 73¢ at $26.63 (+2.8%). While the emphasis has been on the now-signed, sealed, and delivered pandemic relief package, the Federal Reserve has gone about the business of deploying QE4 – a policy many see as having done the lion’s share of work pulling the economy and markets from disaster’s edge. Analysts and economists, in turn, have begun to speculate on the repercussions of those policies with many concluding that stagflation will be the likely outcome.

“Over the coming years,” says Strategic Investor’s David Forest in an analysis posted at the Daily Reckoning website, “we expect the dollars needed to produce a sufficient income will keep growing. That doesn’t mean we’ll see massive inflation like some analysts are predicting. We could see something more like stagflation. That’s when growth stalls while prices rise. This is the deadliest combination possible. It’s also more of a reason to own gold. Over the past 25 years, gold appreciated more than 380%. That’s what helps protect your wealth when you can’t even earn a decent rate of interest on your savings. At the end of the day, there may be surges along the way, but the dollar is heading lower.”

Chart of the Day

overlay chart of gold and the misery index, 1970s

USAGOLD note: In the contemporary global fiat money system, when the economy goes into a major tailspin, both the unemployment and inflation rates tend to move higher in tandem. The word “stagflation” is a combination of the words “stagnation” and “inflation.” President Ronald Reagan famously added unemployment and inflation together in describing the economy of the 1970s and called it the Misery Index. As the Misery Index moved higher throughout the decade so did the price of gold, as shown in the chart shown above.

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Happy Holidays Everyone!

Wishing you the very best of the Season
and a Golden 2021 from all of us at USAGOLD

holidaywreathaspen

All that is gold does not glitter, not all those who wander are lost; the old that is strong does not wither, deep roots are not reached by the frost.

J. R. R. Tolkien

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes |

Gold picks up pace ahead of holiday season slowdown; Bloomberg’s McGlone sees big things ahead for silver

(USAGOLD – 12/23/2020) – Gold picked up the pace in early trading as investors weighed the president’s decision to leave the new stimulus bill unsigned and financial markets wound down going into the holiday season, It is up $8.50 at $1871. Silver is up 40¢ at $25.66 after being down almost $1 yesterday. Silver’s volatility has been notable of late though its overall trend is still to the upside. Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone sees big things ahead for gold’s often erratic traveling companion. “Silver,” he says, “may be a primary metal at the forefront of favorable trends in electrification and quantitative easing, with technicals pointing to a nascent bull market, in our view. Uniquely precious and increasingly industrial, probabilities lean toward the metal — known as leveraged gold — following its yellow peer to new highs.…We see the metal following a similar trajectory as the aftermath of the financial crisis toward $50 an ounce, but with greater potential for staying power on a path paved by gold.” 

Chart of the Day

overaly line chart showing fold and silver price peaks and lag in current chart

Chart courtesy of Seeking Alpha and Macrotrends.net • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: In a post at Seeking Alpha, analyst Peter Krauth offers a useful reminder of silver’s undervaluation when compared to gold as shown above. “In my view,” he says, “as far as investment assets go, silver still remains amongst the most undervalued. But that’s unlikely to last. Let’s look at it from a few perspectives.…Notice that in both 1980 and 2011, silver’s percentage gains were markedly higher than gold’s, easily outpacing the yellow metal. And if you peer over to the right end of the chart, we can see that silver still has clearly a lot of catching up to do. On an inflation-adjusted basis, silver also looks dirt cheap.”

Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |