Gold edges higher in early trading. Silver leads gold short-term, but lags over the long run.

(USAGOLD – 4/20/2021) – Gold edged higher in overnight trading as yields steadied and the dollar dropped marginally. It is up $4 at $1776. Silver is up 15¢ at $26.05 and continues to lead gold on turns to the upside. Over the past fifteen months of pandemic-induced monetary disarray, silver is up 43% to gold’s 16%. “Silver,” says Equity Management Academy in an article posted at Seeking Alpha, “is an excellent opportunity to hedge against the US dollar and to take advantage of what could be one of the most explosive moves in the silver market in history. Silver is real money. It is also an industrial metal, which will be in greater demand as the economy recovers. But, as real money, silver will greatly benefit from the devaluation of the US dollar.”

Chart of the Day

Gold, silver, stocks
(Percent gain, 1971 to present)

overlay line chart showing percentage gains in gold, silver and stocks 1971 to present

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: Analysts with an agenda tend to hand-pick the time sequence which best suits their argument. We have always maintained that the most logical starting point for judging the performance of investments over the long-haul is 1971 – the year the world went off the gold standard and entered the fiat money era. With that in mind, it is interesting to note that silver has been the laggard when compared to gold and stocks. Since 1971, silver is up 1507%, while stocks and gold are up 3813% and 4519% respectively. At the same time, over the 15 months of the pandemic-induced monetary disarray, silver is up 43% while gold and stocks are up 16% and 18% respectively. In short, silver looks to be playing catch up, and if that continues to be the case, the chart implies that there still might be considerable ground left to be covered.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold level to start the week. Grant Williams puts gold ownership into its proper perspective.

(USAGOLD – 4/19/2021) – Gold is level to start the week at $1778.50 on a mixed bag of rising yields and a sharp drop in the dollar. Silver is down 4¢ at $26.01. With the metals taking a breather so far this morning, it might be a good time to consider the sea change in investor psychology emerging in financial markets, i.e., the switch to rising inflation expectations and what it might suggest in the way of portfolio adjustments. Market commentator Grant Willilams, who has gained a large and loyal readership over the years through his Things That Make You Go Hmmm newsletter, recently put the gold question in that regard into its proper perspective. His comments also serve as a solid introduction to this morning’s Chart of the Day.

“The last thing I care about is the price,” he said in a video interview with The Margin’s Michael Epolito, “I know that no matter where the gold price is trading over time relative to other assets, it’s going to preserve my purchasing power, and that’s really all I care about. I just don’t want my money being worth less because of inflation, because of governments, because of all the things that they are required to do to keep the system together. You know, when a government tells you they are going to target 2% inflation, they are telling you our aim is to reduce your purchasing power by 2% a year, and that compounds very, very quickly. … I never think about the price level where I would sell my gold, I think about a point in time where I might decide that the gold I have in that safe deposit box, I would prefer to own that piece of land with it.”

Chart of the Day

Gold and the Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar
(Since 1970)

overlay chart showing the declining purchasing power of the dollar and the rising price of gold since 1971

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ICE Benchmark Administration • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: With inflation and the future purchasing power of the dollar front and center over the past few weeks, we thought it might be good to re-run the long-term chart on the purchasing power of the dollar and the price of gold – one of the most enduring correlations in the world of high finance. One look at the chart tells you long-time market veterans like Grant Williams value it as the most effective portfolio diversifier.  It is difficult to argue with its history since 1971 when the world went to the fiat money system.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Precious metals continue rapid ascent. Gold up 2.25% on week; silver – 3.8%.

(USAGOLD –  4/16/2021) – Precious metals continued their rapid ascent this morning influenced principally by inflation and real rate concerns. Short covering off gold’s late-March double bottom might also be playing a role in the current rally. Gold is up $18.50 at $1784 in today’s early going and up 2.25% on the week. Silver is up 39¢ on the day at $26.30 and up 3.8% on the week. Yields have turned marginally higher following a sharp mid-week decline and the dollar is down. Financial analyst Dan Amoss believes real yields are destined to sink deeply into the negative – a trend that will push gold to new record highs.

“If we see several months of 3% to 4% CPI, and the 30-Year Treasury yield stays near 2%,” he says in an article published at the Daily Reckoning website, “then real yields will be in lower territory than they have been since the late 1970s. When the red line in the chart rises, the blue line tends to do the same, which means higher year-over-year gains for gold. What might this look like by late 2021? Real yields are likely to fall below -1% in the months ahead. That could coincide with gold rising to the $2,300 range by July (a 30% gain from the $1,800 level of July 2020). This isn’t an explicit forecast; it’s meant to illustrate what sort of explosive rally in gold is possible in this macro environment of wild deficits and money printing.”

Chart of the Day

Gold
(50-year, in percent)

line chart showing percentage rise in the price of gold 1971 to present

Dow Jones Industrial Average
(50-year, in percent)

line chart showing the percentage in the DJIA from 1971 to present

Charts courtesy of TradingEconomics.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: As we approach the fiftieth anniversary of the fiat money system’s introduction on August 15, 1971, we thought it would be interesting to take a snapshot of gold and stocks’ performances over the period. Many will be surprised to learn that gold has outperformed stocks since 1971 – up 4821% to stocks 3490%. (All data of 12/14/2020)

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold powers higher on confluence of factors

(USAGOLD –  4/15/2021) – Gold powered higher in overnight trading on a confluence of factors including a sharp drop in Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and a growing sense that inflation now needs to be factored more seriously into the investment equation. The yellow metal is up $16 in early trading at $1754. Silver is up 25¢ at $25.75. Gold is also getting an assist from a strong rebound in physical demand among Asian consumers emerging from pandemic lockdowns.

Investment strategist, Fred Hickey, offers an interesting rejoinder for those who criticize gold’s failure to respond more aggressively to the current mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus. “Fed’s incessant money printing has so distorted the financial system,” he posted recently at his Twitter account, “created many bubbles & encouraged casino behavior. Speculators wildly chase things with suspect ‘value’ such as NFTs, SPACs, memes, cryptos & TSLA. Meanwhile, gold is anti-correlated with bubbles – as always (see 2000). The fact gold’s not ‘participating’ along with the objects of speculation is a positive. It’s what’s supposed to occur. It’s a true store of value uncorrelated with all the bubbles. [It] does best in times of trouble (when reality returns). And reality will inevitably return.” [Emphasis added.]

Chart of the Day

bar chart showing U.S. Treasury securities held outright by the Federal Reserve

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Chart note: As you can see in the chart above, Fed ownership of U.S. government debt is now roughly 2.5 times what it was 12 short months ago. “Defending the Fed’s independence from the fiscal authorities in Congress,” CNBC reported recently,  “[Fed Governor Christoper] Waller rejected notions that the central bank is holding borrowing costs low to help service the debt, nor is it conducting asset purchases to finance the debt-laden federal government.” If not for those reasons, what then is the real reason for the Fed owning almost $5 trillion in federal government paper? Its potential profitability?

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold tracks sideways after yesterday’s immediate, strong positive response to inflation reading

(USAGOLD –  4/14/2021) – Gold is tracking sideways this morning after yesterday’s strong upside response to an unexpectedly sharp increase in consumer prices. It is up $1 at $1748. Silver is up 7¢ at $25.49. Yields are level this morning and the dollar is down marginally. In this still-ultra low yield environment, a rising inflation rate contributes to the negative yield on Treasuries and lifts gold’s safe haven status. Analysts are likely to note gold’s immediate, direct response to the inflation reading as something that has not occurred in a very long time. Sharps Pixley’s Larry Williams, a long-time commentator on the gold market, thinks that higher prices are possible for gold before the year is out, although his forecast ends on an ominous note.

“[W]e don’t expect fireworks in the gold price in the near and medium-term,” he says in a report posted yesterday, “but we wouldn’t be too surprised to see it regain the $1,800 level within the next few weeks, and stay reasonably strong for the remainder of the year.  Whether this potential strength can take it back up to $2,000 at the moment seems perhaps unlikely, but one can’t rule that out – particularly if there is some big geopolitical blow-up. The South China Sea and the Donbass region of Ukraine, remain as serious potential flashpoints for political impasses to turn into military action pitting some of the world’s superpowers against each other.  Looking cynically at the war potential, limited actions may suit the military elements of both sides in seeing how their modern weapons and defensive systems fare against each other in real-time conflict, rather than in computer simulations.”

Chart of the Day

Gold Price
Percent increase or decrease over prior year
(2000-2020)

bar chart showing gold's annual percentage increase 2000-2020

Data sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], ICE Benchmark Association
Chart by USAGOLD.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note:  For the full year 2020, gold turned in its best year since 2010, rising over 24% and ending the year at the $1900 mark. As you can see, gold posted gains in sixteen of the last twenty years – a formidable record by any standard.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold attempting a recovery from yesterday’s selloff, World Gold Council reports strong “peace of mind” demand for gold coins

(USAGOLD –  4/13/2021) – Gold is attempting a recovery from yesterday’s selloff as the dollar firmed and yields steadied this morning. It is level at $1734.50. Silver is up 33¢ at $25.22. We may get some direction from the consumer price report later today and the results from Treasury auctions as the week progresses. Though prices have been subdued since the beginning fo the year, gold demand continues to run strong. The World Gold Council reports this morning that “[first quarter 2021] sales of gold Eagle coins, at more than 400,000 oz, were the third-highest on record for the first quarter. And the Perth Mint report similarly impressive sales so far this year, with a record 330,000 troy ounces of gold sold in the first quarter.” Behind the strong numbers, according to the Council, investors buy gold for “peace of mind” and financial security over the long term.

“Precious metals,” says Pro Aurum’s Robert Hartmann in an interview posted at Gold Eagle, “are and always have been the ultimate insurance. They provide protection both against state failures and against mistakes in the monetary policy of the central banks. Every investor who looks into the history books sees that both have happened over and over again in the past centuries. From that perspective, investing in physical gold and silver is a common-sense precaution and a necessary part of any wealth preservation plan. Investors and ordinary savers ignore this at their peril and the failure to include precious metals in one’s portfolio is pure negligence.

Chart of the Day

overlay line chart showing receipts and expenditures for the federal government through 12-20

Sources; St. Louis Federal Reserve, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Chart note:  For those who wonder about how much the government spends and how much it receives in revenue, this chart offers a straightforward overview. The gap between the two is what needs to be financed and more than half, according to reports, is being taken up by the Federal Reserve at this juncture. The expenditure trend line will once again spike higher based on recent passage of the $1.9 trillion economic rescue package.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold subdued ahead of big week for Treasury debt offerings, consumer prices report tomorrow

(USAGOLD – 4/12/2021) – Gold was subdued in overnight and early U.S. trading as markets prepared for an onslaught of $370 billion in Treasury debt scheduled to hit the market this week – a record amount according to a Financial Times report over the weekend. Yields stayed level on reassurances from Fed chairman Powell in a 60-Minutes interview that the Fed would keep interest rates in check “for as long as it takes to complete the recovery.” The gold market will also be attentive to tomorrow’s consumer price report, particularly in light of the sharp increase in producer prices reported Friday – the largest annual gain in over nine years. Gold is down $3 in early New York trading at $1742. Silver is down 14¢ at $25.19.

In an article headlined How the Fed’s policies could restore the metal’s shine, Randall Forsythe writes that “The purpose here isn’t to prescribe, but rather to describe policies as they are, and what their investment implications might be. To skip ahead, they’re bullish for gold, despite the metal’s recent decline. …The Fed’s massive securities purchases fueled a $4.2 trillion explosion in the broad M2 money supply in the year through February. That, in turn, helped send the U.S. Dollar Index tumbling 13% from its peak last March to the turn of the year. Since then, it’s recovered by about 3%. That brings the discussion back to gold, which should be viewed as a currency, but one that can’t be printed.”

Chart[s] of the Day

Gold, Silver, Stocks
(Year to date, percent gain or loss)

overlay line chart showing gold silver stocks year to date 4-9-2021

Gold, Silver, Stocks
(One year, percent gain or loss)

overlay line chart showing gold silver stocks year to date 4-9-2021

Charts courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: Gold and silver have not gotten off to the best of starts in 2021 when compared to stocks. Gold is down 10.19% thus far in 2021. Silver is down 7.11%. Stocks are up 11.83%. The past 12 months’ performance for the precious metals, though, is an entirely different story. Gold is up 35.82%. Silver is up 63.04%, and stocks are up 44.78%.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold gives back significant portion of yesterday’s gains.

(USAGOLD – 4/9/2021) – Gold is giving back a significant portion of yesterday’s gains as bond yields firmed and the dollar pushed higher. It is down $17 at $1741. Silver is down 37¢ at $25.16. Hungary’s central bank issued a press release on Wednesday announcing that it had substantially increased the country’s gold reserves and offered the following rationale for the decision: “Taking into account the country’s long-term national and economic policy strategy objectives, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank decided to triple its gold reserves. Managing new risks arising from the coronavirus pandemic also played a key role in the decision. The appearance of global spikes in government debts or inflation concerns further increase the importance of gold in national strategy as a safe-haven asset and  as a store of value. As a result of this decision, the country’s gold reserves have been raised from 31.5 tons to 94.5 tons, which sends Hungary from the 56th position to the 36th position in the international rankings based on the size of gold reserves.”

Chart of the Day

overlay chart showing rising gold and growth in the monetary base

Sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], Board of Governors Federal Reserve, ICE Benchmark Administration

Chart note:  Gold and the monetary base have been traveling partners since the early 1970s. The Fed is expected to add significantly to its balance sheet in the months to come. In fact, Fed Chairman Powell recently reiterated the central bank’s commitment to supporting the bond market with direct purchases – acquisitions that end up on the Fed balance sheet and part of the monetary base. As you can see, gold has anticipated that growth in the past and risen accordingly – consistently leading the monetary base higher.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold continues to move off late March double bottom; ‘the last thing I care about is the price’ – Grant Williams on gold

(USAGOLD – 4/8/2021) – Gold continued to move off the late March double-bottom assisted by yesterday’s release of Fed minutes reflecting an overall dovish tone among Fed governors. That dovish tone carried over to media interviews of various Fed governors yesterday. The yellow metal is up $12.50 in early trading at $1751. Silver is up 28¢ at $25.49. The precious metals are also getting a boost this morning from a sharp drop in the dollar and steady yields. The 10-year Treasury is trading at 1.66% well off its recent 1.75% high. I happened to catch a fascinating On the Margin video interview of Real Vision’s Grant Williams yesterday in which he laid out his philosophy on gold ownership and expressed views on several other issues of consequence to precious metals investors. Some might recall Williams as the writer and editor of the popular investment letter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm.

“The last thing I care about is the price,” he says, “I know that no matter where the gold price is trading over time relative to other assets, it’s going to preserve my purchasing power, and that’s really all I care about. I just don’t want my money being worth less because of inflation, because of governments, because of all the things that they are required to do to keep the system together. You know, when a government tells you they are going to target 2% inflation, they are telling you our aim is to reduce your purchasing power by 2% a year, and that compounds very, very quickly. … I never think about the price level where I would sell my gold, I think about a point in time where I might decide that the gold I have in that safe deposit box, I would prefer to own that piece of land with it.”

Chart of the Day

line chart showing the Bank of England's balance sheets assets as a percent of GDP 1700 to present

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], Bank of England; Board of Governors, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Chart note: This chart of the total assets held by the Bank of England as a percent of GDP from 1700 to present, shows at a glance the extraordinary situation in which the central bank finds itself as a result of the coronavirus-related economic crisis. The BoE is also attempting to cushion the fallout from UK’s departure from the European Union. We should add that BoE is not alone in pulling out all the stops. The U.S. Federal Reserve is charting a similar course as are most of the major central banks around the world.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold steps back in early trading, concern lingers over Archegos fiasco

(USAGOLD – 4/7/2021) – Gold took a step back in early trading today as bond yields and the dollar both steadied. It is down $8.50 at $1737. Silver is off 23¢ at $25.02. Fueled by Credit Suisse’ disclosure that its exposure in the Archegos fiasco was $4.7 billion, not the $2 billion originally announced, there is a lingering sense in financial markets that the now-shuttered family office might be symptomatic of deeper and more widespread instability. Meanwhile, the demand for precious metals continues to run at high levels.

“For the past seven months,” says Equity Management Academy in an analysis posted at Seeking Alpha, “gold and silver have been in the news based on a short squeeze and shortages. However, they went the other way and we have seen a Fibonacci correction in gold. The fundamentals do not seem to matter. Gold and silver are experiencing shortages. The physical prices are running far above the paper market prices, so we have a discrepancy between the physical and paper markets. The futures markets are more volatile because they do lead pricing for the cash market – at least traditionally. At some point the paper markets will reflect the cash markets. But at this point, the precious metals are technical markets.” EMA says the current technical picture is lining up in gold’s favor and that once it closes above $1772 it will “probably be off to the races up to $1931.”

Chart of the Day

Line chart showing the inflation adjusted price of silver using Shadow Government Statistics version of the inflation rate

Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: You have probably seen the inflation-adjusted chart for silver in the past. This is the same chart only using Shadow Government Statistics’ rendition of the inflation rate. The SGS’ version of the inflation rate resurrects the same Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methodology used in the 1980s. Whereas the inflation-adjust price of silver in 1980 is about $150 on the standard chart (not shown), it is an astonishing $1,000 per ounce on this chart using SGS’ version of the inflation rate.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold bumps higher in overnight trading, tech analyst sees ‘bullish reversal patterns’

(USAGOLD – 4/6/2021) – Gold bumped higher in overnight trading in an attempt to establish firm footing above the $1682 double bottom. It got some help from a weaker dollar and tentative support for the bond market. The yellow metal is priced at $1737 – up $7 on the day. Silver is trading at $25.10 – up 16¢ on the day. The very identifiable double bottom on the current gold chart (See link) isn’t the only indicator that gold might be setting up for a trend reversal. Noted tech analyst Gary Wagner (Wagner Financial Corporation), who called the move from $1250 to $2200 in 2019 when others had written off the metal as having lost its safe haven appeal (See this post), points to another indicator that’s caught his eye. “While most analysts acknowledge that both gold and silver prices are in an oversold condition, up until yesterday,” he writes in a market update posted at FXEmpire, “we did not see any signs of a potential recovery. That is not the case currently. Yesterday we were able to identify not only Japanese candlestick patterns but other technical indicators as well, which are in confluence with the bullish reversal patterns….”

Chart of the Day

line chart showing the inflation adjusted price of gold using Shadow Government Statistics rendtion of the inflation rate

Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: You have probably seen the inflation-adjusted chart for gold in the past. This is the same chart only using Shadow Government Statistics’ rendition of the inflation rate. The SGS’ version of the inflation rate resurrects the same Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methodology used in the 1980s. Whereas the inflation-adjust price of gold in 1980 is about $3,000 on the standard chart (not shown), it is an astonishing $21,000 per ounce on this chart using SGS’ version of the inflation rate.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold begins week on softer note, current pricing ‘a contrarian buy signal,’ says Crescat Capital

(USAGOLD – 4/5/2021) – Gold began the week on a softer note as yields pushed higher and commodities generally weakened. The dollar was off some overnight but not enough to turn gold positive. The yellow metal is down $3 at $1728.50. Silver is down 7¢ at $24.97. A much stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday is also having a lingering negative effect on precious metals pricing as investors return from the three-day weekend. “Gold sentiment became extremely negative recently,” says Crescat Capital in a recent market research letter, “pulling gold prices down with it, a contrarian buy signal early in a new long-term inflation cycle. The precious metals bull market only began a year ago according to silver and junior miners. If it were after a 10-year run up already, a shift to negative sentiment would be a different story. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. We see it as a great opportunity to buy the pullback … The setup today for precious metals is outstanding given supply constraints, rising inflation expectations, asset bubbles in traditional financial assets, record debt to GDP, double barreled fiscal and monetary stimulus, negative and declining real interest rates. The new bull market only started in March of 2020 after a ten-year bear.”

Chart of the Day

overlay chart showing the real yield on various Treasury notes and bonds using Shadow Government Statistics' reading on the inflation rate and gold inverted
Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: This chart shows the negative real rate of return on various Treasury note and bond maturities applying Shadow Government Statistics’ rendition of the inflation rate – the same methodology utilized by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the 1980s. A declining real rate of return has been the dominant trend since the mid-1980s, with negative real yields coming into play as early as the late 1990s. Keeping in mind that the current real rate of return based on current BLS inflation data is on the order of -0.67%, it is radically less than the -7.97% shown on the chart above. The price of gold (shown inverted) has responded accordingly, gaining momentum since the late 1990s. 

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

No DMR today. We will be back Monday.


Gold trading on a positive note this morning, Krauth sees $100 silver as ‘within reach’

(USAGOLD – 4/1/2021) – Gold is trading on a positive note this morning after turning higher early yesterday at the $1680 level – a support zone with a history going back to June of last year. It is up $9 this morning at $1718 after closing $30 off its lows yesterday. Silver is up 4¢ at $24.53 after finding support yesterday just below the $24 mark. Though silver is down almost 12% year to date, it is up almost 75% over the past 12 months, even with the correction taken into account. Market analyst Peter Krauth sees encouraging signs for the metal based on its long-term, inflation-adjusted price history.

“If we account for inflation,” he says in an analysis posted at FX Empire, “and that’s massively understated ‘official inflation’, then silver prices peaked at $120 in 1980 and around $57 in 2011. (Please see our Chart of the Day below.) Today’s price near $24 is still well below those levels, suggesting a lot of upside remains ahead. In fact at $24 today versus the inflation-adjusted $120 in 1980, silver is currently about 80% below that peak. … Looking at silver from a technical perspective, in my view we are either at or near a final bottom for this correction. …It’s time to be a silver contrarian. History has rewarded us repeatedly. $100 silver is well within reach.”

Chart of the Day

Line charat showing the inflation-adjusted price of silver 1970 to present

Chart courtesy of MacroTrends.net • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note:   The silver price, as Krauth points out in today’s report (above), is 80% below its 1980 inflation-adjusted high. As a matter of interest, the current gold price is 25% below its 1980 inflation-adjusted high.

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Gold, silver level this morning, Wells Fargo’s LaForge still sees $2200 gold in 2021

(USAGOLD – 3/31/2021) – Gold is taking a breather from the ongoing sell-off that pushed its price below the $1700 mark. It is level at $1687 in today’s early going. Silver is level at $24.11. The bond and dollar markets also traded in a tight range overnight. While gold is about to post its worst quarter in four years, demand for the metal continues to run at a high level among private investors. Premiums remain firm and wholesalers report limited availability on a number of items, particularly gold and silver American Eagles. Wells Fargo’s head of real asset trading John LaForge believes gold’s fortunes could turn abruptly and that its price could still reach $2200 this year. The bank sees “diminishing supply growth” as the gold market’s key feature – a situation that has developed over the past three years. “Such times in the past have sparked some of gold’s strongest price rallies,” says LaForge in a report reviewed at Kitco News, “We believe gold could be on the eve of a new commodity bull super-cycle, which would be only the seventh since the year 1800, Gold prices have climbed over 40% since 2018, and we believe that more gains lie ahead.”

Chart of the Day

bar chart showing U.S. trade deficits from 1990 to present

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Chart note: The trade deficit has been the quiet problem developing under the already roiled surface of the U.S. economy. Last week, the Commerce Department reported that the current account deficit surged 34.8% to $647.2 billion in 2020. That is the largest shortfall since 2008.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold drops sharply second straight day as bond-market selloff accelerates

(USAGOLD – 3/30/2021) – Gold dropped sharply for the second straight day as selling in the bond market accelerated and the dollar pushed higher. It is down $30 at $1684.50. Silver is down 59¢ at $24.18. Weakness across the spectrum of commodities, led by the energy sector, did not help matters. For now, speculators have taken hold of the market and the trend is to the downside. Technicians have identified $1675 as a support zone. It looks like it won’t be long until we will see if it holds.

Chart of the Day

grpahic representation of a parabolic curve

Chart note: Just prior to the stock market collapse in 2000, Hussman Funds’ John Hussman predicted an 83% drop in the NASDAQ 100.  It subsequently dropped a precise …… 83% emulating the parabolic effect shown above. He is now convinced “that future generations will use the present moment to define the concept of a reckless speculative extreme, in the same way our generation uses ‘1929’ and ‘2000’”. In short, Hussman echoes Jeremy Grantham’s recent warning of an “epic bubble” and crash to be followed by two decades of “lackluster returns.”

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Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |