Updated regularly

Not your mother’s inflation: Why this is the time to invest in precious metals

Streetwise Reports/Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa

Repost from 8-2-2021

graphic image displaying rising inflation vector

“Interestingly, both of those regimes, along with today’s, share one thing in common: negative real interest rates. The 1940s was the most financially repressive environment yet in that respect. The Fed at least allowed interest rates to rise in the 1970s while inflation rose faster. From a market perspective, there was one important lesson from both periods: At times when investable assets yield less than inflation, owning tangible assets becomes imperative. Commodities were far-and-away the best performing asset class in both of those decades.”

USAGOLD note: In the 1940s, gold and silver were the money so there wasn’t any need to hedge the inflation by purchasing precious metals privately. The 1970s were a different story. Prices went vertical. Smith and Costa do a deep dive into both the 1940s and 1970s – the two eras analysts most frequently cite as eras comparable to our own. They warn that today’s environment is “far more extreme” than those two eras.

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Thinking about buying gold and silver?


Gold in six easy lessons

1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already have.

2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.

3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.

4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.

5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.

6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!


Looking to prepare your portfolio for whatever uncertainty lies ahead?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE
ORDER DESK: 1-800-869-5115 x100/orderdesk@usagold.com

ORDER GOLD & SILVER ONLINE 24-7

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Gold Demand Trends – Q2, 2021

World Gold Council/Staff

Repost from 7-30-2021

bar chart showing gold coin and bullion demand worldwide for second quarter 2021

Chart courtesy of World Gold Council • • • Click to enlarge

“Bar and coin investment generated strong y-o-y growth in Q2, rising by 56% to 243.8t. This was lower than the strong Q1 result, but comparable with the five-year average of 252.8t. The total for H1 reached 594.5t, 45% higher than 2020 and the highest since 2013. In US$ value terms, H1 investment gained 60% to reach an eight-year high of US$34bn.”

USAGOLD note: ETF demand sagged but physical demand put in a good showing strong private investor interest – the highest level since 2013.

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Gold under the new regime

Financial Times/Robert Armstrong

Repost from 6-15-2021

photo of gold American Eagles in stacks with $100 bills in background

“I have received a number of emails asking where the safe assets are. Gold is an obvious candidate; it is often touted as an inflation hedge. But that is too general. Gold has one of the most stable relationships to economic fundamentals of any asset. It moves inversely to real interest rates with great regularity, especially in recent years.”

USAGOLD note:  Armstrong makes a point similar to one we’ve made several times on this page: Once the inflation is shown to be entrenched rather than transitory, gold demand and the price could skyrocket based on its historically proven negative correlation to real rates. Armstrong goes a step further by saying gold could rise even if real rates were to go positive because investors would see it as a valuable hedge against general instability. As a long-time reporter at Financial Times and editor of the widely-followed Lex column on the pink pages, Armstrong’s views carry a great deal of credibility in the professional investor community. Armstrong says he is “no gold bug” but he does offer a fair interpretation of gold’s utility under the current scenario at the link above.

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Chinese gold jewellery sales shine amid demand for traditional designs and national pride among young consumers

South China Morning Post-Reuters/Staff

Repost from 9-3-2021

cartoon showing gold filled Chinese take home containers Ed Stein

“An e-commerce boom and national pride are fuelling the rise in demand for what is known as heritage gold jewellery, which requires intricate craftsmanship and can command premiums of 20 percent or more over conventional gold jewellery, industry executives say.”

USAGOLD note: Gratifying to know that younger buyers are carrying on China’s cultural attachment to the metal. In the East, gold jewelry is accumulated for both saving and personal adornment purposes. Coin and bullion demand is also on the rise in China –  up 41% year over year for the second quarter, according to the World Gold Council.

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Get rich with crypto, stay rich with gold

Atlas Pulse/Charlie Morris

Repost from 9-3-2021

graphic image of gold bar chart with line chart overlays

“I can’t help but think the next decade will belong to gold. After all, the S&P 500 trades at a lofty valuation by historic standards, while gold doesn’t. The main reason I have confidence that gold will win the 2020s is that this almighty asset bubble all around us will implode, and the crowded trades will disappoint the most. Gold is far from being crowded.”

USAGOLD note: Though Charlie Morris’ thought processes are held in high regard, we continue to counsel caution when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Many harbor a lingering suspicion that crypto has as much chance of rapid decline as rapid advance. In the end, though, we all need to find our own way on the matter. As for the second half of Morris’ mantra (as expressed in the title), there is a great deal of merit and historical support for preserving one’s gains, wherever they might occur, through conversion to gold. For those who have made significant profits in the crypto arena, perhaps preserving some of those gains is an option worth considering. After all, the crypto space has tracked the S&P more closely than it has gold. Morris’ latest is well worth the time spent no matter where you come down on the crypto controversy.

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Swiss stock up on gold – OpEd

Eurasia Review/Claudio Grass

Repost from 9-3-2021

photo of pile of Swiss 20 franc gold coins

“Over the last couple of months, it has become clear from conversations with friends and partners from the gold industry that there is a marked increase in retail demand for physical gold from Swiss investors. The most interesting thing about this development is that the bulk of new orders is coming from smaller accounts, showing that it’s ordinary savers and citizens that are driving this trend, rather than professionals, speculators or larger investors.”

USAGOLD note: The United States is experiencing a similar surge in demand from private investors who tend to gravitate towards coin and bullion acquisitions. The big institutions and funds favor gold ETF acquisitions for ease of holding and liquidating very large positions. “It is essential,” says Grass, “to think for oneself and to plan for the future, regardless of what the majority may think at the time or what any centralized authority might promise.”

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Billionaire Paulson says crypto ‘worthless’ bubble, gold poised to surge

Bloomberg/Steven Crabill

Repost from 9-1-2021

graphic image of a golden bull preparing to charge“Ever since John Paulson bet against the U.S. housing market more than a decade ago, people keep asking him about his next big trade.”

USAGOLD note: Paulson believes that because of inflation people will try to get out of cash and fixed income. The amount of cash that becomes available, he says, “dwarfs the amount of investable gold.” The yellow metal, he says, is “primed for its moment.”

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Keep buying the dips in silver

Investing.com/Taylor Dart

Repost from 6-7-2021

“We’ve seen a strong start to Q2 for silver market, with the metal easily outperforming the S&P-500, as well as the yellow metal. This is a very bullish development given that the strongest periods for precious metals occur when silver is not only outperforming gold but also the S&P-500. In addition, we are now 12 months into a new multi-year breakout for silver, and we are working towards a very similar setup to what we saw in 2005.”

USAGOLD note: 2005 was the year silver then trading in the vicinity of $7.50 per ounce began its historic move to $48 in 2011.

Gold, silver and the Standard & Poor’s 500
(In percent, one year)

Overlay line chart showing silver, gold and SP500oneyearJune21

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

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Inflation-wary Germans are loading up on gold

Bloomberg/Eddie Spence

Repost from 8-30-2021

photograph of German currency converted to notepad during the Weimar Republic hyperinflation

“Demand for physical bullion in Germany, traditionally the biggest coin and bar buyer in Europe, was the highest since at least 2009 in the first half, World Gold Council data show. While purchases in other Western markets have also been strong, Germans in particular are pouring into the metal as a hedge against rising inflation — and dealers say business remains good.”

USAGOLD note: The German people have always had a special attachment to gold as a hedge against currency debasement. Memories of the nightmare German hyperinflation of the 1920s are still deeply ingrained in the nation’s culture. German demand for gold coins and bars has increased 35%  from the previous six months driven by concerns about central bank monetary policies.


Image: A storekeeper converts a stack of German currency in the 1920s to a notepad. To save on production costs, the currency was printed only on one side.

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Inflation: The next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031

Blain’s Morning Porridge/Bill Blain

Repost from 7-16-2021

graphic image of a no exit sign“Fed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin. The brutal reality is the Central Bankers, who are all honourable men and women, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow…which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.”

USAGOLD note: How that will be resolved is anyone’s guess. Now, says Blain, the financial asset inflation ignited by central banks everywhere is spilling into the real economy.

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Gold: the most effective commodity investment – 2021 Edition

World Gold Council/Staff

Repost from 8-27-2021

“But what it also suggests is the potential upside in gold compared to how broad commodities have performed during the recent reflationary period. In the previous two periods, gold outperformed broad commodities. However, in the current environment, gold is down 10% compared to commodities, which are up substantially. Gold lagged other commodities beginning in May 2020, and has continued through the first half of 2021, but this is not unusual in commodity-led reflationary periods historically, as we addressed in our recent publication, Gold, commodities and reflation. Historically, gold lags initially, but catches up to most major commodity groups by the second and third years of a reflationary period.”

USAGOLD note: A point similar to the one we’ve made in the recent past. Historically, gold leads, lags then leads again …… The chart below on gold’s longer term performance compared to other commodities is worth a moment of reflection. The message here is “Don’t forget gold when considering an investment in the commodities matrix.” If you do, you are overlooking its best and most consistent performer.

bar chart showing gold's performance over 5, 10 and 20 year periods compared to other commodities

Chart courtesy of the World Gold Council • • • Click to enlarge

 

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Happy fiftieth anniversary, gold

Gold Eagle/Michael Pento

Repost from 8-27-2021

photo of 100-ounce gold bars arranged in a herringbone pattern

“But what all this proves is that Wall Street is not only biased against gold but hopelessly ignorant as to the real function of the precious metal. It is crucial to understand that gold isn’t really an investment, like stocks or bonds. It doesn’t grow its earnings, or pay dividends, or even offer any interest like fixed income. Gold mining stocks are investments, but the metal itself is not. Gold is a competing currency that must be measured against the return on cash. It offers a viable replacement for dollars that exist in a completely liquid savings or checking account or short-term Treasuries. In other words, the performance of gold is most accurately measured when compared with the returns on holding cash or cash equivalents. Gold should not be compared with stocks or long-duration bonds. However, gold can still very favorably compete with those investments, especially during times of stagflation.”

USAGOLD note: Readers will appreciate the direct manner in which Pento makes his point. This article offers solid perspective on gold’s place in the investment universe since the United States ended dollar convertibility in 1971.

 

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Leeb: The coming gold-based monetary system will have some surprises

King World News/Dr. Stephen Leeb

Repost from 7-14-2021

Ed Stein cartoon graphic of gold bar flying a dollar kite“He’s right in thinking that for gold to soar into the stratosphere, it will take a catalyst that implies a major worldwide change. Where we disagree is that I believe such a catalyst isn’t far off. The one I’ve focused on is a new reserve currency based on gold.”

USAGOLD note: Leeb goes on from there to tell why he believes a new reserve currency is inevitable – one backed by gold. The clear message, he concludes in a lengthy analysis, is to “buy as much gold as you can.”

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There is still mettle left in the precious metals

Singapore Bullion Market Association/Bart Malek

Repost from 7-15-2021

graphic representation of an angry silver bull“Silver tends to do well when there is a favorable environment for gold. Considering that the white metal has a historical volatility roughly double that of gold, and given that it is directionally synchronised, it should outperform gold into 2022. Indeed, this is exactly what has happened in a dramatic way since June 2020, as the gold-to-silver ratio fell by roughly half from the bad days of March 2020 to just 68 currently. Given our robust gold outlook and considering silver’s supply-demand fundamentals over the next few years, history tells us that silver still has plenty of relative value to recapture. TD Securities expects investors to favor silver for the same reasons as they do gold, but also desire it for its industrial bonafides.”

USAGOLD note: Malek goes on to say that “the investment community and traditional buyers of silver” bought 531 million ounces of silver in 2020 and will buy another 885 million ounces by the end of 2023. In other words, the torrid pace of investor interest in silver has not abated. It will be interesting to see how bar and coin premiums respond globally. Premiums zoomed higher beginning in 2020 and have not weakened in 2021. Premiums on the new American Silver Eagle are currently running at $10 to $12 over the melt value.

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Gold mid-year outlook 2021: Creating opportunities from risks

World Gold Council/Staff

Repost from 7-9-2021

photo of uneven stack of gold bars“Interest rates will likely remain a key driver for gold in the short and medium term. Yet, the negative impact that higher rates could have will likely be offset by the longer lasting effects and unintended consequences of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies created to support the global economy. These may include inflation, currency debasement, and higher exposure to risk-on assets in portfolios. Combined with attractive entry levels, this could prompt strategic investors to add gold to their allocation strategies and support central bank demand during the second half.”

USAGOLD note: The World Gold Council presents a review of gold’s prospects at mid-year.

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Rainy day investment

Cartoon image of Dr. Moneywise with umbrella, rain falling“In an economy buffeted by the ups and downs of farming and fishing, the people [of India] are used to buying gold after bumper harvests or fishing seasons and selling it after lean ones.” –– Vivek Kaul, Live Mint

Dr. MoneyWise says:  “It’s all very simple.  Own gold for a rainy day.  Use it if and when that day arrives.”


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The new commodity super cycle bull

Wells Fargo/John LaForge

Repost from 8-19-2021

graphic image of a gold bull against blue background with arrows pointing higher“This publication could be one of the more important ones we write this year – maybe for this decade. The reason is that since 2012, we spent a great deal of time advising investors to steer clear of commodities. Our tune finally began to change last year, and on March 12, 2020, we upgraded Commodities to Favorable on a tactical basis (6-18 months). Today, we are officially calling the end of the commodity bear super-cycle that started around 2011.”

USAGOLD note: I can remember when LaForge was bearish on commodities and took a lot of flack for it. On gold, he includes a chart showing fundamental pattern similarities to what occurred in 1999 just before it entered its secular bull market.

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What’s happening with gold?

DailyReckoning/James Ricards

Repost from 8-16-2021

photo image of stack of American gold eagle coins“Many gold investors are panicked after the recent mini-crash. But today, I want to show you why the case for gold is still intact and why the recent tumble is just a bump in the road. You shouldn’t let the mini-crash obscure a broader reality. You need to focus on the big picture, not the short-term fluctuations.”

USAGOLD note: Rickards sticks with the notion that it is not inflation we need to worry about, but disinflation. If disinflation turns out to indeed be the next economic paradigm with which we have to contend, then gold, he says, will move higher as hedge against systemic risks.

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Why gold?

International Man/Adrian Day

Repost from 6-29-2021

photo of stacks of bullion gold coins“At a time when many investors are calling gold ‘a relic,’ and many younger ones, in particular, are buying Bitcoin instead, it is worth going back to fundamentals and looking at gold’s role as money over thousands of years. I am not here to attack Bitcoin. Rather, I am here to defend gold. Gold has an advantage that Bitcoin does not have, that Bitcoin inherently cannot have, which is its age. Gold has survived and performed its job for literally thousands of years. We shall have to wait a little longer to say that Bitcoin is as good as gold.”

USAGOLD note: Day makes a detailed and compelling case for gold ownership at the link above.

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Citigroup sees 1,000 tonne central bank demand over next two years

Bloomberg/Ranjeetha Pakiam, Misha Savic and Eddie Spence

Repost from 7-7-2021

Photo of pallettes of gold bars purchased by Hungary's central bank

“The recovery in global trade is bolstering the current accounts of emerging market nations, giving their central banks the option of buying more gold.”

USAGOLD note: Central banks and private investors buy gold for the same reasons – as a store of value and to diversify their holdings. Though the 1000-tonne projection would be a strong showing it is roughly 15% less than the record-breaking 2018-2019 two-year period. These projections reflect the latest in a trend of central bank buying that began in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. “If a central bank is looking at diversifying,” says HSBC’s James Steel, “gold is a marvelous way of moving out of the dollar without selecting another currency.”

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Gold purge further strengthens long-term outlook

Seeking Alpha/Stuart Allsopp

Repost from 8-12-2021

graphic image of a green buy button on a laptop computer“With this in mind, gold’s weakness in the face of declining bond yields over recent months suggests the metal is a buy, particularly relative to industrial and agricultural commodities. While all commodities tend to benefit from rising inflation, gold tends to outperform during periods of declining interest rates and bond yields. This reflects the declining opportunity cost of holding gold as well as the tendency for falling bond yields to reflect weak economic growth which is bad news for industrial commodities.”

USAGOLD note: We referenced this report in yesterday’s DMR and reproduce it here for those who may have missed it. Allsopp says the recent washout in gold “should be considered a blessing,” and that “gold is a strong buy given the increasingly positive fundamentals.”

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Gold smashes will end when inflation wrests control of the narrative from taper talk

Seeking Alpha/AustroLib

Repost from 8-11-2021

graphic image of a cannon firing a cannonball“This is not the first time this has happened, but I don’t believe these smashes can continue this way for much longer. I say this because once the Fed actually does start to taper its $120B monthly bond purchases, markets will expect price inflation to start being tamed. But it won’t be. When traders realize that tapering isn’t helping tame price inflation, the tables could be turned on the current narrative. The time is nigh when price inflation starts to lead the gold and silver markets instead of the paradigm we are currently in, in which monetary policy prognosticators try to front-run gold and silver on any possible news of tightening.”

USAGOLD note: An interesting take on the Fed dilemma on tapering and rates at the link …… Inflation, he says, will begin leading the narrative. And that is likely to occur, to borrow a phrase, in two ways: gradually then suddenly.

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Why its never a bad time to invest in precous metals

Yahoo!Finance/Chris Markoch

Repost from 6-29-2021

photo image of stacks of gold and silver coins“The idea behind precious metals is that they generally have a low correlation with the stock market. And, in times of market volatility, precious metals like gold and silver tend to hold their value very well.  However, as rational as those reasons sound, investing in precious metals is a source of debate among many investors. Some investors have a large amount of their portfolio in precious metals. Other investors believe precious metals have no place in any portfolio.”

USAGOLD note: A standard introduction to investing in precious metals for those new to the idea. We remain in the camp that advocates physical precious metals in the form of coins and bullion for long-term asset preservation purposes and know from experience drawn over many years that they serve that purpose well.

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Gold’s recent movements

GoldHub/John Reade

Repost from 8-10-2021

“Could the sell-off have been a ‘fat finger’ or something malicious? Either are possible. But its also possible that gold slipped lower as the dollar firmed, triggering stop-loss selling, which caused gold to slip lower, triggering more stops until the selling was exhausted.”

USAGOLD note: Reade offers a reasonable assessment of what happened in the gold market Friday and Monday and a way to view it that makes a great deal of sense. The sell-off was not the result of thousands of investors suddenly deciding they want out of the gold market, Instead, it was computer-based selling that generated a cascading effect – in short, as we have reported here previously, another example of the madness of machines.

Gold price
(5-day)

line chart showing gold's flash crash 8-9-2021

Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

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The summer of inflation

Financial Times/Colby Smith and Tommy Stubbington

Repost from 5-17-2021

cartoon of a parliament of crows awaiting an opporunity to pounce

“It’s always been right to be sceptical when someone says ‘this is the year that inflation comes back’. But for the first time you can say this time is different. The pandemic might be the systemic earthquake that changes the inflation outlook we have been used to for the past 30 years.” –  Jim Leaviss, M&G Investments

USAGOLD note: Are we approaching the summer of our discontent? This FT Big Read says the world has gone on an explosive borrowing binge, with the U.S. having “gone the furthest.” In short, we very well could be in for some unforeseen consequences in the investment realm. If that be the case, how well we prepared this spring could turn out to be crucial. Franklin Templeton’s chief investment officer Sonal Desai is quoted as saying: “There is an entire generation of traders who have grown up investing in the post-global financial crisis world of no inflation. People shouldn’t underestimate how uncertain things will look if we are entering a new paradigm.” This opinion piece will serve as a good starting point for those looking to dig a little deeper into the potential fallout from a new inflation-based paradigm. It does not diminish or gloss over the role being played by the free-spending Biden administration nudged along by a compliant Fed.

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Gold as an inflation hedge: What the past 50 years teaches us

Wall Street Journal/Mark Hulbert

Repost from 8-9-2021

graphic image showing inflation, gold, commodity upticks

USAGOLD note: Whenever inflation looms on the horizon, research inevitably surfaces arguing that gold is not a reliable inflation hedge. This Wall Street Journal article published over the weekend is another example. It draws on the research of Duke University professor Campbell Harvey and Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group. “They found that it’s only when measured over very long periods – a century or more,” writes columnist Mark Hulbert, “that gold has done a relatively good job maintaining its purchasing power. Over shorter periods its real, or inflation-adjusted, the price fluctuates no less than that of any other asset.” Though that might be the case, It is difficult, in fact, impossible, to argue against gold’s performance as an inflation hedge during the 1970s – the last time we had a close encounter with runaway inflation. Certainly, investors holding gold at the time did not question its reputation as a hedge while inflation was raging through the economy. Quite the opposite, they were happy they had the foresight to buy it before it became a major issue.

If you blend the data, though, over a longer period to include disinflationary economies (like the 1980s when the dollar provided a real rate of return), its performance levels out, and that is what Harvey and Erb’s do in their study. Inflation continued in the period between 1980 and 2000, but it was greatly subdued, and the Federal Reserve went to great lengths to secure a real rate of return on Treasury paper. That policy effectively boosted the dollar and brought down the gold price. Now, we have a different story. In fact, a good many believe that what Paul Volcker was to inflation in the 1980s, Jerome Powell is to disinflation in the 2020s. The inflation rate has migrated well above the rate of return on the 10-year Treasury note, and though gold has yet to respond, we are early in the game. A good many still buy into the Fed’s argument that the current inflation rate is transitory.

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Inflation and gold in the 1970s vs today’s situation

Gold Eagle/Anna Sokolidou

Repost from 6-22-2021

“History does not repeat itself, many people say. However, the lessons from the past should be learned. The prices of precious metals have recently fallen after the last Fed meeting. Briefly, investors are worried the Fed will hike the interest rates twice in 2023 due to the inflationary pressures. Here I will explain how inflation can get out of control by comparing the current situation to the 1970s Great Inflation in the US.”

USAGOLD note: Sokolidou returns the reader to the 1970s and delves into the many similarities between then and now, ending with the warning that “gold prices soared back then and they might rise substantially in the near future.” We have run the following chart a couple of times over the past few months as one analyst after another warns of a 1970s economic deja vu. Beware of carefully crafted arguments suggesting that stocks do well in periods of inflation. The historical support is spotty at best.

Gold and Stocks
(Performance 1970-1980, in percent)

overlay chart showing the performance of gold and stocks during the 1970s in percent

Chart courtesy of MacroTrends.net

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Where gold stands a year after hitting a record-high price

MarketWatch/Myra P. Saefong

Repost from 8-3-2021

bar chart showing growth in bar and coin demand from World Gold CouncilGraphic illustration courtesy of World Gold Council • • • Click to enlarge

“The pullback in gold is a ‘healthy consolidation,’ with the market digesting the effects of those monetary policies and potential follow-on policy adjustments, [Wilshire Phoenix’s William] Cai says. Inflation, meanwhile, looks to be the major factor that will continue to support gold prices in the medium term, he says.”

USAGOLD note: A catch-up, recent history article for those who are thinking about buying gold for the first time. The first half of the year has not been the best of times for gold, but it hasn’t been the worst of times either. Though the price has been stable to down somewhat demand for physical gold and bullion is running high.

 

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Michael Burry warns of the ‘mother of all crashes’

Bloomberg/Charlie Wells

Repost from 6-20-2021

photo image of a swarm of gnats“All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes. When crypto falls from trillions, or meme stocks fall from tens of billions, #MainStreet losses will approach the size of countries. History ain’t changed.” – Michael Burry, Scion Asset Management

USAGOLD note:  Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame recently tweeted extensively about the German hyperinflation warning of comparisons between the 1923 Weimar Republic disaster and today. “People say I didn’t warn last time,” he said. “I did, but no one listened. So I warn this time. And still, no one listens. But I will have proof I warned.” He then went on a roughly two-month sabbatical. Now, he’s back and he is very worried about a stock market in the grips of a prolonged mania saying its “unnatural, insane and dangerous.”

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“Have you ever seen in some wood, on a sunny quiet day, a cloud of flying midges — thousands of them — hovering, apparently motionless, in a sunbeam? …Yes? …Well, did you ever see the whole flight — each mite apparently preserving its distance from all others — suddenly move, say three feet, to one side or the other? Well, what made them do that? A breeze? I said a quiet day. But try to recall — did you ever see them move directly back again in the same unison? Well, what made them do that? Great human mass movements are slower of inception but much more effective.” – Bernard Baruch, famed Wall Street speculator, 1932

 

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As Congress clashes over borrowing and debt, gold is likely to beat stocks

MarketWatch/Mark Hulbert/7-31-2021

“Gold could receive a boost in coming days, while stocks could suffer, as investors focus on a matter they have mostly overlooked: political brinksmanship in Congress over raising the U.S. government’s debt ceiling.”

USAGOLD note: Most believe that Congress will eventually raise the debt ceiling like it always does as a matter of political self-interest. It’s what happens though between the time the debt ceiling becomes due and a settlement is finally reached that could bring unforeseen consequences. Hulbert points to warnings from two top credit agences that “a deterioration in governance” could translate to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating – an event that in 2011 pushed the gold price 10% higher over a 30-day period.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Silver’s coming spike in price will be quick and breathtaking!

Munknee/Lorimer Wilson/7-28-2021

Photo stacks of silver bullion coins“One must buy before the spike kicks in because, once it erupts, you’ll be chasing a train that’s already rolling down the tracks. You’ll not only pay a higher price but a higher premium as well, since demand usually jumps when prices do.”

USAGOLD note: Some interesting history on silver breakouts 1973 through 2020…… Based on reports of heavy silver bullion coin purchases worldwide, a good many agree with Wilson about buying before the spike kicks in. Premiums, by the way, are already high due to the strong demand and inability of the national mints to keep up with it.

 

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Charts suggest stocks may struggle in August while gold looks set to rally, Cramer says

CNBC/Kevin Stankiewicz/8-2-2021

“‘The charts, as interpreted by the legendary Larry Williams, suggest that August could be a tough month for the S&P 500, but a terrific month for gold. Given the big picture backdrop right now, that wouldn’t surprise me one bit,’ the ‘Mad Money’ host said.”

USAGOLD note: Nothing fuels gold demand in our experience more than a sell-off in the stock market. Throw in inflation for good measure, and who knows where we go from here. …… Cramer also says that gold is “extremely undervalued” when compared to bonds. Is it time for sitting bull to get up and move around?

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Real interest rates suggest it’s a good time to buy and hold gold

MishTalk/Mike Shedlock

Repost from 6-14-2021

graphic image of lines in the sand pointing higher“Let’s investigate the relationship between real interest rates and the price of gold.”

USAGOLD note: An interesting chart study and quick read with positive results for current and would be gold owners from Mish Shedlock……

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Paul Tudor Jones says ‘go all in on the inflation trades’ if Fed keeps ignoring higher prices

CNBC/Kevin Stakiewicz

Repost from 6-14-2021

“If they treat these numbers — which were material events, they were very material — if they treat them with nonchalance, I think it’s just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade,” Jones said on ‘Squawk Box.’ If they say, ‘We’re on path, things are good,’ then I would just go all-in on the inflation trades. I’d probably buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold.”

USAGOLD note: Some thoughts from the legendary hedge fund manager ahead of the Fed………

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Goldman Sachs: Gold to rebound sharply towards $2000

FXStreet/Dhwani Mehta

Repost from 7-23-2021

graphic image of a golden bull preparing to charge“Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect commodities to “rebound sharply” following their recent sell-offs while targeting gold to reach $2000 over the coming months… Do not expect widespread lockdowns.”

USAGOLD note: Goldman sees gold rising in a general commodities rally.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

‘Confusion and disorientation’ driving ‘crazy’ moves in the market, Mark Mobius says

CNBC/Holly Ellyatt

Repost from 6-10-2021

graphic image showing medieval castle shadowed by stacks of gold and silver coins“Any pullback in the money supply as a result of central banks pulling back will be, I think, very bad for the markets. So I think we have to watch this very carefully. We’re in a very uncertain time, that’s for sure.” – Mark Mobius

USAGOLD note:  Mobius has recommended gold ownership in the recent past as a refuge in times of uncertainty.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold: The metal might take the medal

Twitter/Mike McGlone

Repost from 7-20-2021

graphic image of $2000 per oz“A leading loser in 1H, we see gold well-poised to regain its more- enduring upward trajectory in 2H, with some normalization in stock-market returns as a top potential catalyst. The U.S. Treasury long-bond showing comfort below 2% support may be indicating more of the same disinflationary forces of the past four decades. A peak in crude oil would add underpinnings to gold.”

USAGOLD note: McGlone is among the group that has $2000 in its sights for 2021 led by a “reversion” in stocks and further, extended declines in bond yields.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Why aren’t gold and silver shining?

Investing.com/Andrew Lane

Repost from 7-22-2021

photo image of stack of American gold eagle coins“It is painful isn’t it, watching the nonsensical performance of the monetary metals. Nothing makes sense at the moment on why we keep seeing red, day after day, given the macro horizon points everything to the north. It seems traders see any one macro that goes against gold and silver outweighs the other six for it.”

USAGOLD note: Lane voices a common complaint among precious metals investors these days as we work our way through the summer doldrums – and offers some answers. “Be greedy,” he concludes, “when others are fearful.”

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold really sucks. Here’s why…

GoldEagle/Rick Ackerman

Repost from 6-1-2021

stacks of gold and silver coins“Sucks? Yeah, sure. Maybe in the eyes of crypto fanatics and the quacks who re-invent monetary policy every month. In actuality, few things in the material world suck less than gold. Sorry to resort to headline flim-flammery to get your attention, but it was time to upgrade our enthusiastic endorsement of gold — and silver! — to an outright declaration of love. If you’re a bullion investor, this means we are confident you can buy the stuff now without fear or qualm. And if your safe deposit box is already filled to overflowing with ingots and precious-metal coins purchased when gold was $300 an ounce, it’s time to rent more space.”

USAGOLD note:  Now that we’ve gotten your attention, if things need to stack up for you, we invite you to give our Order Desk a call at 1-800-869-5115 x100 or visit our online platform anytime day or night to place your order.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |