Citigroup says gold may top record
Bloomberg/Ranjeetha/Pakiam/9-10-2019
“‘We expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching $2,000 an ounce and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two,’ analysts including Aakash Doshi said in a note received Sept. 10. That would exceed the record of $1,921.17 set in 2011.”
USAGOLD note: Bloomberg reposted this article on its front page yesterday. We included Citigroup’s forecast in last Wednesday’s DMR. Here is a link to the complete article. . . . .
Repost from 9-17-2019
I wouldn’t be surprised to see $3,000 gold: David Rosenberg
YouTube/Financial Post/Video Interview of David Rosenberg
“What is amazing about this run-up in gold that we have seen is that it has taken place with the U.S. dollar actually quite firm.”
USAGOLD note: David Rosenberg is chief economist at Gluskin Sheff and Associates and a highly-respected Wall Street analyst. We were a bit surprised at his $3000 forecast for gold. He explains how it is possible to a skeptical host.
Repost from 9-16-2019
‘Gold will be explosive’ – Frank Giustra
KitcoNews/Daniela Cambone/Video interview of Frank Giustra
“‘I think we’re in the third and final phase of the gold market that’s started in 2001, and this will be the most explosive phase for gold,’ Giustra told Kitco News.”
USAGOLD note: This is one of the better interviews we have seen in awhile on the long-term merits of gold ownership. Giustra explains how he has structured his own gold portfolio.
Repost from 9-16-2019
Global economy seen sliding toward weakest growth in decade
Bloomberg/William Horobin/9-19-2019
“Intensifying trade conflicts have sent global growth momentum tumbling toward lows last seen during the financial crisis, and governments are not doing enough to prevent long-term damage, the OECD said in its latest outlook.”
USAGOLD note: We cited this OECD report in yesterday’s DMR. Sounds very much like the mindset during the 1930s and Roosevelt’s New Deal. The OECD’s call on governments to do more is expressed often in top analytical circles where the view prevails that central banks have pretty much run out of ammunition.
Buying pullbacks in gold and silver
“New highs are times to take profits on a scale-up basis, and significant corrections offer the opportunity to step up to the plate and repurchase the precious metals. Unfortunately, the human emotions of fear and greed often drive traders and investors to buy when markets are peaking and sell on days like September 5 and 6. Trailing stops can be useful tools and capital savers during wild bull markets.”
USAGOLD note: For Investors in the physical metals, i.e., those who have their positions fully paid for and stored safely away, short-term price movements are not usually a matter of concern. For leveraged investors in the futures and options markets, it is a different story. The short-term is always in such cases a direct and abiding concern. If one fundamentally believes in the metal’s safe haven attributes, a drop in the price can be seen as an opportunity to acquire portfolio insurance at a more favorable price.
Repost from 9-11-2019
Ron Paul: Gold will be $3000 by the end of 2020
Ron Paul Liberty Report/Ron Paul Video Interview/8-26-2019
“I never really ‘invested’ in gold. I didn’t trade in gold. I used it as a savings account. I used it as a reserve always thinking this is my backup. So I did that systematically over the years. So I bought gold over the years, but I never sold gold.”
USAGOLD note: Ron Paul offers some down to earth advice for everyone, but especially good advice for newcomers to the investment, i.e., treating gold and silver as savings – an approach we have always advocated.
Repost from 9-6-2019
The global economy may be facing its ‘Minsky moment’ of excessive debt — and that is great for gold prices
“For Trey Reik, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management USA, current economic conditions bear the hallmarks of a so-called Minsky moment, in which over-leveraged investors are compelled to sell their investments, catalyzing a major market downturn — an ideal environment for gold. . .[He] makes the case that the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate reduction in July and expectations that it will continue to cut rates, are a tacit acknowledgment that the central bank must keep interest rates low or risk a debt meltdown.”
USAGOLD note: Reik believes that interest rates must continue to decline “to keep the ever-burgeoning debt pyramid from toppling.”
“[Exter’s Inverted] Pyramid stands upon its apex of gold, which has no counter-party risk nor credit risk and is very liquid. As you work higher into the pyramid, the assets get progressively less creditworthy and less liquid. . .[In a financial crisis] this bloated structure pancakes back down upon itself in a flight to safety. The riskier, upper parts of the inverted pyramid become less liquid (harder to sell), and – if they can be sold at all – change hands at markedly lower prices as the once continuous flow of credit that had levitated those prices dries up.” – Lewis Johnson, Capital Wealth Advisor’s Lewis Johnson
In short, what Lewis Johnson outlines is the bottom-line rationale for diversifying one’s portfolio with gold. For a more detailed analysis of Exter’s Inverted Pyramid, we invite you to visit the May 2019 edition of News & Views, our monthly newsletter.
Repost from 8/22/2019
Gold (in real terms)
The Big Picture/Barry Ritholtz
“Gold would need to rise to $2,764/oz to make new peak in real terms . . .“
USAGOLD note: We have posted versions of the inflation-adjusted price of gold chart over the years. Ritholtz provides an annotated update at the link. Worth a quick visit . . .
Silver, gold and platinum are due a break
321Gold/Bob Moriarty/9-5-2019
OPINION
When you are climbing the steepest of mountains, especially at high altitudes, it can be tiring. If you start getting a nosebleed, you are simply working too hard and need a break.
The DSI on gold hit 97 four weeks ago and while it has struggled to keep up with its fellow climbers with their burst of speed, both silver and platinum are starting to look shaky.
On September 4th the DSI for silver hit 95 for the 2nd day in a row while platinum vaulted to 94.
Those are nosebleed readings.
With $17 trillion in sovereign debt around the world showing negative interest rates the old saw of “gold doesn’t have a return” has changed to “gold doesn’t lose money for holding it.” Indeed Central Banks around the world have been net buyers of gold for the last ten years.
I suppose I will have to change my tune as clearly the Central Banks have been manipulating gold and I never even noticed. I wonder why no one warned us they were forcing gold higher. Good for them, guys, keep it up.
Gold, silver and platinum will rest for a while but we haven’t seen a top. The upcoming bubble in real money is going to surprise everyone.
Well, almost everyone.
–– Bob Moriarity, 321Gold
Julius Baer: Uncertainties are driving up gold prices
“As global market and geopolitical worries mount, gold is going higher. Carsten Menke, commodity analyst at Julius Baer, sees uncertainties and recession fears driving investors to safe havens like gold.”
USAGOLD note: Menke says the real drivers for gold are “trade tensions” and the “recent slowdown in global growth.” A good interview that ends with a tight summation of gold’s prospects.
Repost from 8-28-2019
UBS says its staying long gold
BNN Bloomberg/Ranjeetha Pakiam
“Gold will extend its winning ways as the U.S.-China standoff harms growth, risking a deeper slowdown and inviting more central-bank easing, according to UBS Group AG, which jacked up price forecasts with a prediction the precious metal may hit $1,600 within three months.”
USAGOLD note: A one two punch from UBS: Sell stocks. Buy gold.
Repost from 8-27-2019
Wells Fargo tries to diss gold, but fails
“The goal of Wells Fargo’s statement was clearly to steer clients back into investment vehicles that generate fees and away from precious metals which generally don’t. But the impact on most clients will probably be the opposite, because most clients currently own exactly zero gold. So in reading the above they’re likely to gloss over the cautionary statements and fixate on the stuff Wells Fargo was forced to acknowledge….”
USAGOLD note: Rubino goes on to list those acknowledgments. . .”If you own no gold,” he concludes, “and your bank says you should own some, that amounts to a buy recommendation. Which is what Wells Fargo — and every other major bank — wishes it could avoid but increasingly can’t.”
For those who would like to own gold and/or silver and store it securely, we offer an individualized, allocated storage program that costs less to maintain in most cases than an ETF. You also can take delivery of your metal at any time with a phone call. To learn more, we invite you to contact us. If you would like to take the traditional route and receive delivery, we can help with that too.
QUESTIONS?
ORDER DESK: 1-800-869-5115 x100/orderdesk@usagold.com
UBS: Gold to reach almost $1700 next year
“The bullion bounce surge, which has taken off this month, will continue to be propelled by mounting investor worries, according to Swiss bank UBS. ‘Gold is set to gain as recession, trade and geopolitical risks rise, and yields fall,’ the report states. An ounce of the metal, which recently fetched $1,520 could rally more than 10% to $1,680 in 2020, the usually-conservative bank says.”
USAGOLD note: Another institution – this time UBS – weighs in with another strong bullish forecast for gold.
Repost from 8-15-2019
Short and Sweet
_____________________________________________
Summer doldrums turned upside down
Gold’s June upturn separates 2019 from the pack
The summer months historically present a buying opportunity in precious metals as illustrated in the charts shown below. In the past, there has been a clear change of direction in sentiment annually from the 185-195 day mark – midway in the year. So far this summer, though, gold has broken with tradition by turning in a strong June, as shown in the third chart.
“Gold trading usually gives pundits, dealers, and investors a break at some point over the summer,” observes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. “But like 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2016…this year is proving no time to take your eye off the market. And if 2019 is going to see an old skool summer lull in gold trading, it won’t feel much like a discount up at these prices.”
With a range of economic and geopolitical issues preying on investor psychology – particularly at the funds and institutions that have fueled the upside this year – the summer of 2019 might go down as one of those years when we bypass the annual slowdown. Last year, gold hit a low of $1178 in mid-August. By December 31st, it was trading at the $1280 mark.
Charts courtesy of GoldChartsRUs/Nick Laird
______________________________________________
Featured in the July edition of News & Views (7-10-2019)
Much more at the link
Gold strength will outlast the dollar’s
Seeking Alpha/Clif Droke/8-21-2019
“The strange persistence of the strong dollar with the rising gold price has puzzled many participants this year. Some are even beginning to suggest that the dollar’s inverse relationship with gold has been broken. In this report, I’ll make the case that what we’ve seen so far this year has been an exception to the rule. The evidence I’ll show here implies that we’re likely to see a divergence between the U.S. currency’s value and the gold price in the coming months. And while the dollar remains strong right now, gold will likely continue to outperform the greenback due to the threats facing the global economy.”
USAGOLD note: Gold as king of the hill. . . Who would have suggested such a thing six months ago? Given the flow of capital into gold these days globally and the entities responsible for it, you would have to think that something is going on a bit out of the ordinary.
Gold prices could reach $2,000 by the end of the year, strategist says
“Gold prices can continue to climb even after they hit a multi-year high last week, a global investment strategist said Monday. In fact, prices are set to ‘reach $2,000 by the end of the year,’ predicted David Roche, president and global strategist at London-based Independent Strategy.”
USAGOLD note: Something major would need to happen for gold to reach $2000 by the end of the year. Roche thinks he knows what that something might be. Financial markets, he says, “are are now poised to crumble like a sand pile.”
Gold could hit $2,000 in a world full of negative yields
“In a world full of negative yielding debt, hard assets like gold could become even more attractive, and some strategists say a case could be made for a $2,000 per ounce price tag on the precious metal.”
USAGOLD note: TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali thinks we may be on the brink of a years-long bull market for gold.
Repost from 8-15-2019
Goldman sees gold prices climbing to $1600
Bloomberg/Luzi-Ann Javier and Justin Vasquez
“For Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts, gold’s rally above $1,500 is just the beginning. Analysts at the bank predict that prices already at six-year highs will climb to $1,600 an ounce over the next six months as investors seek havens. The dimming global economic outlook, fueled by heightening trade tensions between the U.S. and China are boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge against financial turmoil.”
USAGOLD note: Goldman is off-again, on-again when it comes to gold. . .It is now on-again and on the record with one of the more bullish numbers among Wall Street firms.
Re-post from 8-8-2019
The gold bull market is back
Degussa/Thorsten Polleit/8-19-2019
“There is this humorous saying: ‘It walks like a duck, it sounds like a duck, and it walks like a duck. Maybe it is a duck?’ The prices of gold and silver have gone up quite substantially since June, with gold for the first time since 2013 trading at around 1,500 USD/oz; silver trades close to 17 USD/oz. Where do we go from here? The rise in the price of gold appears to be a ‘catch up’ price movement. Gold has been trading at what appears to be a discount for quite a while. As we pointed out in our Degussa Market Report on 25 April 2019, at that time, the fair price of gold would have been around 1,500 USD/oz. We now consider it necessary to raise this estimate.”
USAGOLD note: Degussa goes on from there to give a bullish price estimate for the future. . .at the link above.
Short and Sweet
TECH ANALYST
Gold could go to $1800 to $2200 in the long run
A number of technical analysts have reverted to a more bearish forecast over the past few weeks with the $1250 area once again being touted as the downside support area. Many of those same technical analysts, though, have a significantly more positive outlook for the longer term. Among that group is Gary Wagner of the Wagner Financial Group who sees $1267 or even $1247 as possibilities in the short run, but also forecasts the possibility of $1800 to $2200 in the longer run. “Our research,” he explains in an article published recently at the Singapore Bullion Market Association website, “suggests that gold is in the final phase of a major long-term impulse cycle. This model also provides a look-back at the final major bullish wave could be traced back to end of 2015, following a correction to $1,040. This corrective fourth wave developed from the all-time high at $1,900 in 2011. The model suggests that gold could re-test the record highs that, if taken out, could see an extensive surge to between $1800 and $2200 per troy ounce.”
Caveat: At USAGOLD, it bears repeating, we have always advocated the ownership of both gold and silver coins and bullion for long-term asset preservation purposes rather than speculative gain. Though we pass along various projections, we do so with the caveat that anything can happen. The analyst who forecasts downside today can quickly change his or her outlook to the upside tomorrow – or vice versa. The long term charts for gold and silver, though, reveal a consistent upward trend that has served investors well in the period since 1971 when the global monetary system departed the gold standard and entered the fiat money era.
Repost from April, 2019
Time to load up on gold
“Societe Generale, famed European investment bank, has just told investors they should load up on gold. . .”
Re-post from 8-8-2019
Gold is set to stay strong for the next six to 12 months, economist says
“A host of global factors mean gold’s price is set to maintain its strength at least for the next six to 12 months, according to an economist from a top Singapore bank. ‘The world right now is in a precarious state and gold is due to benefit from this situation,’ said Howie Lee, economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation.”
USAGOLD note: With the world – from Asia, to Europe, the United States and a long list of emerging countries – now acutely attuned to gold ownership, it might not be long until we begin to see strains on the limited physical supply.
Re-post from 8-7-2019
The ratio of gold and silver soared to the highest level in 20 years
SMM News/Oriental Wealth Network/8-1-2019
“According to historical performance, whenever the ratio of gold to silver is much higher than normal (usually 70 to 75), this means that the bottom of the silver price appears. When the ratio of gold to silver exceeds 80, the price of silver is too undervalued relative to the price of gold, which is often one of the most reliable buying signals for silver.”
USAGOLD note: The ratio topped at least temporarily at 92.32 to one in early May. The average ratio, as this article points out, is about 55 to one. “A new round of silver surpassing gold may have begun,” concludes the author.
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com
Re-post from 8-4-2019
‘A base pattern of this magnitude can support a massive gold bull market’
“We can best see gold’s potential giant base pattern on a 10-year chart. It can be described as a complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom or as a Saucer, and is best considered to be both, or perhaps as a hybrid having the characteristics of both patterns. In any event, as we can see on this chart, it appears to be drawing close to breaking out of it, which will be a very big deal if it happens, because a base pattern of this magnitude can support a massive bullmarket. As for timing it could take several months and it is most likely to happen during gold’s seasonally strong period from July through September. To maintain the bullish case it must stay above the Saucer boundary.”
USAGOLD note: We post Clive Maund’s forecasts from time to time – one of our favorite tech analysts. His latest is worth the visit – a positive prognosis for gold based on structural chart patterns.
Repost from 5-22-2019
If history still matters, silver is poised for a huge move
Dollar Collapse/John Rubino/6-25-2019
“The gold/silver ratio – that is, how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold – has bounced all over the place since the 1960s. But whenever it’s gotten extremely high – say above 80 – silver outperformed gold, sometimes dramatically.”
USAGOLD note: Often in the past during precious metals rallies, silver has lagged gold only to make up for it as time moved on based on the gold-silver ratio coming into better historic balance.
Re-post from 6-27-2019
‘A mighty wind at their backs. . .’
“The bulls point to a peaking US business cycle, inflationary and growth-destructive tariffs, a tight job market, an increasingly dovish Fed, strong central bank buying, de-dollarization, out of control government spending and debt, and Chinese investors buying more gold instead of investing in their weak stock market. . .In the big picture, both fundamentally and technically, the bulls clearly have not just the edge, but a mighty wind at their backs.”
USAGOLD note: Stewart Thompson goes into the details in this bullish post at 321Gold. . . . . .
Re-post from 8-4-2019
Why gold’s glittering rise is ‘here to stay’
YahooFinance/Interview of Will Rhynd
“Although we have not had a Fed rate cut exactly yet, we have expectations that rates are going to go lower particularly real interest rates (the nominal interest rate minus inflation) and so that typically means gold’s price is on the rise and I think this move is here to stay.” – Will Rhind, Graniteshares
USAGOLD note: Rhind goes to say “right now it’s all about interest rates” not fear of an economic breakdown.
Repost from 6-27-2019
Silver is cheap and ETF investors have finally taken notice
Heraeus/Precious Appraisal/7-29-2019
“Silver is looking precious again and has shaken off its industrial malaise. ETF holdings have reached a new high, but speculative futures positioning is well below its highest level, leaving room for further upside.”
USAGOLD note: The German refiner weighs in on the precious metals . . . .
This ‘long-neglected’ commodity is ready to roar, says Commerzbank
MarketWatch/Barbara Kollmeyer/7-25-2019
“Switching gears a little, our call of the day from Commerzbank says a “long-neglected” commodity has waked from a ‘deep slumber’ and is ready to roar. Silver hit a 13-month high last week and marked its eighth gain in nine sessions on Wednesday, reaching $16.626 an ounce. The commodity is ‘still relatively good value as compared with gold, which is why we expect the upswing to continue,’ Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch, who bumped his year-end forecast to $18 an ounce, told clients in a note Thursday. Silver is up 6% year-to-date versus gold’s gain of 11%.”
USAGOLD note: A short treatise on why silver might make some sense for portfolio diversification at this point in time. . . . . .
Gold’s rally will not stop here
GreenwoodInvestments/SeekingAlpha/7-22-2019
“Gold has always been seen as an important diversifier in an investor’s portfolio, both as a hedge against inflation and equity fluctuations. However, investors should start thinking of gold as an Alpha generator in their portfolios. Gold’s technical picture has changed this year, and I strongly believe it is set to embark on a multi-year uptrend.”
USAGOLD note: An alpha generator, according to Investopedia, is “any security that, when added to an existing portfolio of assets, generates excess returns or returns higher than a pre-selected benchmark without additional risk.”
Why this gold rally feels different
FXStreet/Rick Ackerman/7-18-2019
“For years, gold’s corrections have been brutal, and that is why many erstwhile bulls have not rushed to buy this rally. They have instead been waiting for a nasty pullback in order to load up at bargain prices. But Mr Market has not obliged. Instead, retracements have been shallow and rallies steep. The latter have often occurred after-hours, but in one recent instance via a trampoline bottom that came early in the day. By playing hard-to-get, gold is displaying the most encouraging signs we have seen in a long, long while.”
USAGOLD note: Good bottom line analysis and advice from an analyst who’s taken a few laps around the track. . .through thick and thin.
Repost from 7-20-2019
Ray Dalio says gold will be a top investment during upcoming ‘paradigm shift’ for global markets
CNBC/Jeff Cox/7-17-2019
“I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold,” the Bridgewater Associates leader [Ray Dalio] said.”
USAGOLD note: We featured a post on Ray Dalio’s current thinking just this morning. He is back now with an an even more detailed commentary via Linked In. . . .and a summary at the link above.
Repost from 7-20-2019
Gold is in a new bull market — and it’s heading a lot higher
Barron’s/Andrew Addison/7-12-2019
“It’s gold’s time to shine. The price of gold has gained 9.6% to $1404.30 an ounce this year, and my work projects the precious metal will move substantially higher from current levels as it starts a new bull market. The fundamentals and technicals are aligned for gold to maintain its upward trend in the coming months.”
USAGOLD note: A public service announcement from Barron’s magazine [smile]. . . . . It is not often that the famed Saturday publication announces a new bull market in gold!
Repost from 7-14-2019
Could gold hit $2000 by year end?
“Analysts at European precious metals retailer, Degussa, also said that they see gold prices pushing higher through the rest of the year as global interest rates ultimately head lower. Degussa analysts said that they see U.S. interest rates falling to 1.25 per cent by the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, European interest rates could fall further into negative territory to -0.7% from -0.4%. With inflation expected to rise this means that real interest rates could fall in negative territory, the analysts add. This is all good news for gold.”
USAGOLD note: We do not rate the probability high that gold will reach $2000 by the end of 2019 but stranger things have happened once the bull escapes the pen.
Repost from 7-10-2019
Will history repeat itself in the gold market?
Real Investment Advice/Erik Lytikainen/7-11-2019
“Gold can be best viewed as financial insurance. If you believe that you should own insurance, then you should also own gold. In terms of investment performance, gold will do best during times of international financial stress. In the past, the price of gold has moved exponentially higher during these periods as demand for the ultimate safe haven goes viral.”
USAGOLD note: Lytikainen says the long-term upward peak for gold could be $7,000 to $11,000 as the world transitions from a dollar-based monetary system to a “multi-currency, multi-polar system.”
Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio increases gold position
“Bridgewater Associates didn’t have any major positions in gold ETFs until the second quarter of 2017. By the end of the third quarter of 2017, GLD formed 3.18% of the fund’s portfolio. Dalio likes gold due to its diversification and hedging properties. In a LinkedIn post last August, Dalio wrote, ‘If you don’t have 5–10% of your assets in gold as a hedge, we’d suggest that you relook at this. Don’t let traditional biases, rather than an excellent analysis, stand in the way of you doing this.'”
USAGOLD note: Bridgewater Associates is the largest hedge fund in the world, so 5% to 10% of its assets amounts to a considerable total. We would add that Dalio is not the only billionaire investor recommending gold ownership these days. Billionaires own ETFs to circumvent the insurance, security and storage problems. The typical private investor, on the other hand, can store his or her needs in an average-sized safety deposit box and avoid the costs and limitations imposed by ETFs. If you would like to learn more on that score, please give the TradingDesk a call.
Repost from 5-24-2019
Gold is cheap. Inflation is coming. You do the math.
“Compared with stocks and other financial assets, gold looks inexpensive. More important, inflation is starting to pick up in the U.S. and in much of the world as central banks shrink their enormous balance sheets. And gold has represented a good defense against inflation eroding the value of a stock or bond portfolio.”
USAGOLD note: A lengthy, well-written excursion into the benefits of owning gold. Recommended reading from Barron’s. . . . .
Repost from late September but worth the reprise. . . . . .Particularly in light of today’s inflation report
This (completely reasonable) change in investor behavior would send gold to the moon
John Rubino/Dollar Collapse
“Two points about Mobius’ suggestion that most portfolios should be 10% allocated to gold: First, the idea of replacing dollar cash with a historically better-performing store of wealth seems like a no-brainer in a world of soaring fiat currency debt and plunging interest rates. Second and vastly more interesting, the current allocation to gold in the financial world is about 1% of total investable capital, so moving from here to 10% would produce spectacular price gains for gold.”
Image courtesy of Visual Capitalist/Jeff Desjardins
Repost from 7-11-2019
‘I believe we will easily go to $1500 very soon’
“There is lots of institutional demand waiting on the sidelines. Gold is reappearing on everyone’s radar, and investors are becoming more interested. Gold is in a bull market in most currencies, and overall is doing exceptionally well. The world gold price is close to all-time highs. He thinks that gold will now move into a bull market in dollar terms and $1500 should be a relatively easy target. Election years are generally favorable for gold.”
USAGOLD note: Stoeferle has been one of our favorite gold market analysts for a good many years. With co-author Mark Valek, he publishes each year one of the most thorough reviews of the gold market available. This interview updates his position in light of recent events.
Repost from 7-5-2019
The relevance of gold as a strategic asset
“Gold is a highly liquid yet scarce asset, and it is no one’s liability. It is bought as a luxury good as much as an investment. As such, gold can play four fundamental roles in a portfolio:
–a source of long-term returns
–a diversifier that can mitigate losses in times of market stress
–a liquid asset with no credit risk that has outperformed fiat currencies
–a means to enhance overall portfolio performance.”
USAGOLD note: Why gold makes sense for private investors as a long-term, all-weather portfolio addition. . . . . . .
Repost from 4-3-2019
Why the gold rally is set to run
“It’s all systems go for gold investors. The bullion market is stirring from a multiyear slumber and looks set to enter a sustained rally, experts say. Double-digit increases within the next 18 months may be only the start of the price surge. ‘[W]e believe there is a very good chance that this marks the beginning of a new gold bull market,’ says gold market veteran Joe Foster, portfolio manager for the VanEck International Investors Gold Fund. Foster says the run is ‘likely to last several years.'”
USAGOLD note: A review of the developing strong bullish sentiment among market professionals. . . . . .
Repost from 7-2-2019
Paul Singer estimates 30-40% market correction when downturn hits
“The global economy is likely heading toward a “significant market downturn,” according to billionaire Paul Singer. ‘The global financial system is very much toward the risky end of the spectrum,’ Singer said during a panel Thursday at the Aspen Ideas Festival. ‘Global debt is at an all-time high. Derivatives are at an all-time high.’ The co-founder and chief executive officer of Elliott Management Corp. estimated that there will be a market correction of 30% to 40% when the downturn hits. He said he couldn’t predict the timing.”
USAGOLD note: With all the talk about the many dangers lurking in the financial markets, we forget the presence of derivatives’ risk – the one risk that could amplify all else. Singer, for one, does not overlook it.
Repost from 6-30-2019
Gold has the potential to go parabolic
“I find that for me, being a history buff makes it almost impossible not to be a believer in the metal that has been a fixture and sign of value and wealth since ancient times. I am a gold bug and have been since I first started in the commodities business in the early 1980s. There is no other asset that gives a person the same feeling than gold. Holding a kilo bar of the yellow metal is a feeling that no other investment can elicit.”
USAGOLD note: One of the first memories I have of my years in the gold business is holding twenty Austrian Coronna gold pieces in my hand and thinking – “This is only $2,000?” That was in 1973. Of course, now that same twenty coins is worth almost fourteen times that and it still seems too few dollars for so much gold.
Repost from 6-30-2019
Gold’s monster run could reach $1,600, say Citi analysts
“That brings us to our call of the day from Citigroup analysts who say this ‘bullish gold fever is justified,’ and say the metal could reach between $1,500 to $1,600 an ounce in the next 12 months, and $1,500 by end-2019 in the most optimistic of their new predictions for the metal.”
USAGOLD note: A good many bank analysts will be adjusting their market forecasts based on events of the past week. Citigroup is among them. It has been bullish on the metal for some time now, but this forecast of $1500 to $1600 gold still comes as a surprise.
Repost from 6-21-2019
3 reasons the gold rally is unlikely to reverse soon
“‘If gold holds above the $1,400/oz trading level over the course of this week, we believe there is a very good chance that this could mark the beginning of a new gold bull market,’ wrote VanEck portfolio manager Joe Foster on Monday. ‘In any case, it appears gold has entered a higher trading range.’ Here are a few reasons the rally is likely to continue.”
USAGOLD note: The three reasons given might surprise some . . . particularly the third – “Inflation won’t be low forever.” Worth the visit at the link above. . . .
Why gold is money
“There’s nothing magical about gold. It’s just uniquely well-suited among the 98 naturally occurring elements for use as money… in the same way aluminum is good for airplanes or uranium is good for nuclear power. There are very good reasons for this, and they are not new reasons. Aristotle defined five reasons why gold is money in the 4th century BCE (which may only have been the first time it was put down on paper). Those five reasons are as valid today as they were then.”
USAGOLD note: Casey delivers the essential argument for gold as money in the age of paper currency.
Image: Aristotle as depicted by the German artist Johann Jakob Dorner the Elder (1741-1813)
Repost from 12/5/2019
Gold investors have been waiting a long time for this breakout moment and it’s happening
CNBC/Maggie Fitzgerald/6-25-2019
“‘Bigger picture though, given the magnitude of the base, which has taken six years to form, we suspect we could even see a retest of the $1,921 record high,’ David Sneddon, global head of technical analysis at Credit Suisse, said in a note to clients Monday.”
USAGOLD note: This article goes on to say that gold is Morgan Stanley’s number one commodity pick based on the “uncertain macro-economic outlook.”
Lombardi Letter: ‘Don’t rule out gold going to $2000 per ounce’
“Gold prices could outperform a lot of assets in the coming months. In fact, don’t rule out gold going for even $2,000 per ounce.The case for owning gold keeps getting stronger. You really potentially be making a big mistake if you ignore the yellow precious metal. Why be so bullish on gold? Well, there are a few factors that could raise the price of gold, including uncertainty, volatility, low interest rates, and money devaluation. And right now, a lot of these factors are coming into play, which could lead to gold prices skyrocketing.”
USAGOLD note: The influential Lombardi Letter weighs in on gold. The downside, it says, could be “very small” and the upside “immense.”
Repost from 6-19-2019
Gold: Time to shine – ANZ
FXStreet/Sandeep Kanihama/6-21-2019
“ANZ analysts point out that gold has benefitted from its safe haven status amid deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and see prices settling above USD1,400/oz, with a reasonable chance of breaking USD1,500/oz over the next 12 months.”
USAGOLD note: ANZ (Australia New Zealand Banking Group) is Australia’s second largest bank. The link takes you to the rationale behind their positive forecast.
Chart signals double-digit rally for gold
“The gold trade is shining bright. Investors rushed into the commodity on Thursday, pushing it to a four-month high. Gold is now just 1% away from its 52-week intraday high of $1,349.80 from February, and TradingAnalysis.com’s Todd Gordon believes it may soon surpass that level. After examining the charts, he says bullion could climb as high as $1,500.”
USAGOLD note: A very optimistic viewpoint as we move into what could be another eventful weekend. . . . . . .
Repost from 6-7-2019
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