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Thinking about buying gold and silver?


Gold in six easy lessons

1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already have.

2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.

3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.

4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.

5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.

6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!


Looking to prepare your portfolio for whatever uncertainty lies ahead?
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Posted in ClientInsights, Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Singer warns of trouble, eager to say ‘told you so’

Bloomberg/Katia Porzecanski and Nishant Kumar

Repost from 3-1-2021

graphic image of billionaire investors stacking bars of gold in a large vaultImage courtesy of VisiualCapitalist.com

“Offering a curmudgeonly riposte to today’s raucous financial markets, the 76-year-old billionaire said in a letter to clients of his $42 billion Elliott Management Corp. that a ‘flamboyant line-up’ of excesses will come back to haunt investors. To Singer, who has long warned of an ugly end to the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies, it’s all just a bit too much.”

USAGOLD note:  Singer has long been a proponent of gold ownership. This article reports that Elliott (Singer’s investment fund) made money thanks to “a combination of portfolio-protection trades related to interest rates and gold, together with our core activities.” Given the billionaire’s mindset, we highly doubt he has given up on gold in this latest downtrend.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Rainy day investment

Cartoon image of Dr. Moneywise with umbrella, rain falling“In an economy buffeted by the ups and downs of farming and fishing, the people [of India] are used to buying gold after bumper harvests or fishing seasons and selling it after lean ones.” –– Vivek Kaul, Live Mint

Dr. MoneyWise says:  “It’s all very simple.  Own gold for a rainy day.  Use it if and when that day arrives.”


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Posted in Dr. Moneywise, Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Case for holding gold – the Lombard Odier view

WealthBriefing/Stephand Monier

Repost from 7-22-2020

graphic image of gold king chess piece“At these levels, why own gold in a portfolio? The combination of low-to-negative government bond yields plus a weakening US dollar, and, most importantly, massive central bank accommodation, supports financial demand. This relationship between gold and real yields has held for the last decade and recent central bank interventions have reinforced the case for holding gold as a portfolio diversification tool. In addition, as investors consider the pandemic’s longer-term implications, they are likely to look harder at their exposure to sovereign debt and the solvency of indebted governments. This further increases the attractiveness of gold, which, even if it produces no income and is costly to store, carries no credit risk.”

USAGOLD note:  Lombard Odier, founded in 1796, is a private Swiss banking firm that manages about $250 billion in assets for private individuals and other institutions.  It is now recommending gold ownership to its clientele.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold prices have been struggling, but the path of least resistance is up

MarketWatch/Mark Hurlbert

Repost from 4-6-2021

graphic image of hour glass with gold dust running through it“Gold has continued to struggle over the last couple of months, and the gold timers have responded by becoming more pessimistic and dejected than they already were then [two months ago]. That leads contrarians to be even more confident than they were in early February that gold’s path of least resistance is up.”

USAGOLD note: Hurlbert includes his own chart on gold sentiment in this article. Worth a visit, particularly if you are a contrarian investor looking for for an entry signal.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold is getting that inflation feeling again

Bloomberg/John Authers/3-31-2021

photo image of stack of American gold eagle coins

“For those who think that the bond market has given us a head fake, and that yields will consolidate or even fall over the next few months and years, gold looks like an interesting way to play that. If the inflation scare takes greater hold and 10-year real yields rise, gold looks at risk of a true bear market. But, as in August, nothing matters more than how the economy emerges from the pandemic and the resulting effect on bond yields.”

graphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend ReadUSAGOLD note: It isn’t yields alone we should be monitoring but the real yield – that is the yield after inflation is taken into account. At the moment, the real yield on the 10-year Treasury is running in the negative. (Please see chart below.) That should be good for gold. The mystery is why the opposite has occurred since early January. Certainly, real yields are in a minor uptick at the moment, but the overall trend is unambiguously to the downside. Thus far, we have not seen a good explanation for gold’s price behavior since early January. Analysts, though, might be looking in the wrong place. Gold’s slide might have occurred for the most simplistic and straightforward of reasons. It might be correcting naturally from overbought conditions at the end of a two-year, 70% price run-up (from $1195 to over $2035). A correction back below $1700, or even lower, is not unreasonable in that context.

overlay chart showing the real rate of return on 10-year Treasuries and the price of gold since 2000

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, ICE Benchmark Administration

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold, commodities and reflation

World Gold Council/Johan Palmberg

Repost from 3-25-2021

“A commodity rally began in Q2 of 2020, sharply on the heels of the COVID-19-driven broad market sell-off. It started with metals, followed by energy, and, by the summer, agricultural commodities had joined in. Investors have waited more than a decade for this type of commodities rally but perhaps their patience is about to be rewarded. The recent market moves – between August 2020 and February 2021 – now rank in the top 5% of six-month moves since 1971 and, with a 30-year low as a base, this suggests they could have further to go.”

USAGOLD note: The World Gold Council’s Palmberg offers solid statistical evidence and charts to back up claims from several top-notch analysts that we have entered a secular bull market in commodities. He says that gold’s “underperformance” thus far is consistent with other episodes of reflation in that a strong rise in the price of gold preceded the commodities runups. In past episodes, he says, gold has played catch up with commodities in the second or third year of the uptrend.

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com • • • Click to enlarge

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold goes out of style

The Felder Report/Jesse Felder

Repost from 3-25-2021

photo stack of modern gold bullion coins

“Recently, nominal interest rates have been rising faster than inflation creating a headwind for the gold price. However, there is good reason to believe that this trend could soon shift and become a strong tailwind for the gold price again. The rise in rates has already been dramatic and there is reason to believe it may be nearer to its end than its beginning. At the same time, inflation appears to be on the verge of picking up once again. If so, real rates will fall and gold will likely resume its uptrend.”

USAGOLD note: This insightful short analysis from Jesse Felder is the perfect accompaniment to the post immediately below. Even if bond yields rise, a rising inflation rate could drive considerable safe-haven demand in gold’s direction. It is difficult to believe, it requires saying, that the items pictured above are going to go out of style any time soon – not as long as the federal government is running deficits to the moon and the Federal Reserve is printing money to cover them. The chart below comparing the real rate of return on the 10-year Treasury to the price of gold since 2000 clearly shows the relationship Felder discusses in his analysis. As you can see, the turn higher over the last few months in real rates is a small blip when compared to the dominant trend.

overlay chart showing the real rate of return on 10-year Treasuries and the price of gold since 2000

Sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board of Governors,ICE Benchmark Administration

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Metals research firm says investors will hoard gold in record amounts in 2021

Reuters/Peter Hobson

Repost from 10-24-2020

gold coins against background of bar and line charts stacks

“Demand for gold from jewellers and central banks will remain sharply lower in 2021 than before coronavirus, but investors will keep prices high by stockpiling record amounts of bullion, Refinitiv Metals Research said.”

USAGOLD note: As the saying goes, there is no rush like a gold rush and Refinitive thinks one is brewing for 2021. It sees investor demand for coins and bars swinging from a 6% decline in 2020 to a 13% gain in 2021. And if a blue wave rolls into Washington DC that 13% predicted increase might be seen as modest. Refinitiv is one of the top research firms in the field of precious metals.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Wall Street pros from Goldman to JPMorgan on new inflation era

Bloomberg/Anchalee Worrachette

Repost from 3-24-2021

cartoon image of gold piggy bank by Ed Stein

“It’s the invisible force rocking Wall Street: An inflation revival for the post-lockdown era that could change everything in the world of cross-asset investing. As America’s dalliance with run-it-hot economics sends market-derived price expectations to the highest in more than a decade, Bloomberg solicited the views of top money managers on their make-or-break hedging strategies ahead.”

USAGOLD note: Most of the inflation-proofing strategies outlined by analysts from some of Wall Street’s most prestigious firms include real assets, gold, commodities, et al.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Silver and gold price breakout to accelerate in an abnormal way – Michael Oliver

YouTube/Michael Oliver

Repost from 3-25-2021

“We added in late 2018 to our bullish view and then the price broke out. If you look at a gold chart to go back several years you’ll see this big basing action where gold labored with all of its highs being about $1350. It couldn’t get through there. Multiple rallies failed and in 2019 it finally punched through. Silver did the same thing in July of last year. Now these are fresh massive base breakouts. We’re talking bases that go back years…You don’t punch through something like that and then say ‘Oh. It’s all over. I’m going back down again.’ This is a huge base for gold, a huge base for silver, and we think the bull trend is likely to extend for a couple more years at least and probably extend in a way that is not normal.”

USAGOLD note:  We are always interested in Michael Oliver’s current thinking on the precious metals markets. We agree with this profile of Oliver posted by one of the viewers: “Mr. Oliver is one of the very best analysts out there, most are not worth anything, but a very few like him are quite worth listening to. He also isn’t afraid to take a stand and place his bets on his opinions, unlike just about every newsletter guy out there!” He says the upside moves in gold and silver will be “far more accelerated, far more dramatic” than they were in the 1970s.

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Goldman Sachs says commodities rally is ‘the beginnning of a new structural bull market’

TheInvestmentOfficer/Larry Light

Repost from 3-23-2021

graphic image of an arrow of circles signifying cycles“Dare anyone say we’re at the outset of another commodities super-cycle? Well, at least the outlook in this area is darn good. Already, the S&P GSCI commodities index is up 76% over the past 12 months and 16% thus far in 2021.”

USAGOLD note:  The latest from Goldman’s Jeff Currie on the commodities super cycle ……

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold and U.S. dollar hegemony

YahooFinance!/Kelsey Williams/3-19-2021

Ed Stein cartoon graphic of gold bar flying a dollar kite“The possibility of gold reasserting itself as the international medium of exchange continues to increase; but, a lot more bad stuff has to happen before we get to that point. Also, governments around the world have too much at stake to capitulate when it comes to ceasing to issue ‘funny money’. For the time being, let’s focus on things as they are.”

USAGOLD note: I have always put considerations of some sort of great reset on the back burner as pretty much a waste of time. If gold is going to be used in the international monetary system as something other than an alternative reserve asset – which is the way things are headed – it is going to take an agreement on how to value it and how much of it each nation-state is going to own. That discussion – let alone an agreement – is a long way away, so focusing on things as they are seems a much more practical undertaking. Williams offers some solid background thinking on the relationship between currencies and gold – with the dollar as the centerpiece.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Silver Institute forecasts 11% increase in silver demand in 2021 – over one billion ounces

The Silver Institute

Repost from 3-2-2021

image of silver bars with rising chart trend line in background

“Going forward, the outlook for the silver price in 2021 remains exceptionally encouraging, with the annual average price projected to rise by 46 percent to a seven-year high of $30.00. Given silver’s smaller market and the increased price volatility this can generate, we expect silver to comfortably outperform gold this year.”

USAGOLD note:  We referenced this Silver Insitute report in Friday’s DMR and repost it here for those who may have missed it.  We include an interesting chart with that report which you might want to take a look at.

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‘You’ve got to be in these precious metals’: Mark Mobius names his top commodity investments

CNBC/Natasha Turak

Repost from 3-19-2021

photo image of stacks of gold and silver coins

“Mobius, the longtime executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group and founder of Mobius Capital Partners, says he views these particular metals as a form of ‘currency,’ and outlined just how much of your portfolio should be allocated to them in an exclusive interview with CNBC Pro Talks on Wednesday.”

USAGOLD  note:  Mobius goes on to name gold and silver as topping his list of commodity investments saying he is a “big fan of these precious metals.”

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Five reasons why high yield investors need gold

Seeking Alpha/Samuel Smith-HighYieldInvestor

Repost from 1-7-2021

photo of Swiss Helvetia 20 franc pile of gold coins“At the same time as gold is facing demand tailwinds and supply headwinds, its primary safe-haven competitor – U.S. Dollars – are increasing in supply at a rapid rate with no end in sight thanks to massive and rapid multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing by the Fed and stimulus deficit spending from the U.S. government.

The Fed is taking this drastic action to try to prop up the economy by increasing liquidity and keeping interest rates low. It is also helping to fund the U.S. Government’s massive new debt issuance to fund the bailout packages Congress has been passing.

As a result, U.S. Treasuries are in a Fed-fueled bubble as interest rates are being kept low only by massive purchases by the Federal Reserve. In March – in order to smooth out chaotic trading patterns – the Fed was purchasing a whopping $75 billion of government bonds every day.”

USAGOLD note: This article caught my attention because gold’s biggest competitor among sophisticated investors is the bond market. The higher the net yield after inflation and taxes the stronger the competition. To have an advisor who specializes in high yield instruments proclaim a need for gold is something worthy of our attention. In the end, his argument boils down to gold as a safe-haven store of value. “[G]iven current macro forces and the prices offered in the marketplace,” he says, “gold is shining more brightly than ever, especially for high yield investors.”

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Yield curve controls ‘will likely send gold soaring to new highs’

Seeking Alpha/Austrolib

Repost from 3-18-2021

“In order to embark on yield curve control in the first place, the Fed will first have to allow primary dealer banks in the US Treasury market to continue to expand their balance sheets. It has until March 31 to get this done, or there could be serious trouble in the Treasury markets. Both JPMorgan (JPM) and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association – SIFMA – have made it very clear that without regulatory relief by the end of the month, primary dealers in US Treasuries may not be able to continue serving as market makers in the world’s benchmark interest rate market.”

USAGOLD note: This article is for the market watchers looking for a deeper understanding of what’s going on with major Wall Street players in the bond and gold markets. The long-term association between the real rate of return on Treasuries and the gold price is shown in the chart below. Gold rises as the real rates fall and falls when real rates rise. At present, as Austrolib points out, the Fed appears poised to control yields as signs of inflation begin to show up in the economy.

overlay chart showing 10Year TIPS real return and gold 2000-2021
Sources:  St. Louis Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, ICE Benchmark Administration

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Look who just predicted gold at $2500-$4000 and silver at $57-$130+

King World News

Repost from 2-3-2021

graphic image of green arrow pointing up“Our bias has been that this bull market in Gold could take us to $2,500 (possibly even this year) and on a multi-year basis towards $4000. IF (and it is a big if) we look at those numbers in conjunction with the Gold-Silver ratio targets what do we get?”

USAGOLD note:  That very bullish forecast comes from Citibank analyst Tom Fitzpatrick and it was also reported at the CNBC Pro portal. Fitzpatrick says that if silver gets to $50 “a 3rd time our bias would be ‘3rd time a charm” and we would suspect that it could give way.”

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Nobody saw inflation coming in the 1960s, but it could be back

CoinDeslDamanick Dantes

Repost from 3-18-2021

“Everything old is new again, and that includes investor complacency when it comes to inflation. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm Pantheon, thinks that complacency is due to the anemic pace of price increases in recent years. The same thing happened in the early 1960s – just before the double-digit inflation that spilled into the 1970s, he wrote in a report Monday.”

USAGOLD note: Inflation snuck up on the country in the 1960s, then exploded in the 1970s. Gold, after two U.S. dollar devaluations and a decade of runaway inflation, went from $35 to $650 using the London Fix as a reference.

Gold Price
(1965-1980, LBMA)

line chart showing the price of gold from 1965 through 1980

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve, ICE Benchmark Administration

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Dalio: Fed will need to buy bonds as stimulus boosts yields

Bloomberg/3-19-2021

Graphic image of Uncle Same saying I need vast sums of money“[Dalio] said the world is ‘very overweighted in bonds,’  and they are yielding minus 1 basis point in real terms, which is ‘very bad. And not only might there be not enough demand, but it’s possible that we start to see the selling of those bonds,’ he said. ‘That situation is bearish for the dollar.’”

USAGOLD note:  Dalio is right on this. To stabilize the bond market, the Fed may have no other choice but to greatly increase its monthly quantitative easing outlay. On top of everything else, reports are beginning to surface of major market players shorting the bond market.

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Asian gold demand rebounding as Swiss exports to India surge

Reuters/Staff/3-18-2021

photo of stacks of gold bars“Switzerland in February sent gold to mainland China for first time since September and shipments to India and Thailand rose to multi-year highs, suggesting that demand for bullion in Asia is recovering from the coronavirus shock.

USAGOLD note: The East buys on weakness and the West buys on strength.  We may be getting to a time though when pent-up demand in the East based upon its rising prosperity competes at the same time with growing investment demand in the West based on concerns about currencies and bond markets systemic risks.

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‘Why not instead buy stuff – any stuff – that will equal inflation or better?’

Linkedin/Ray Dalio

Repost from 3-14-2021

“However, because you are trying to store buying power you have to take into consideration inflation. In the US you have to wait over 500 years, and you will never get your buying power back in Europe or Japan. In fact, if you buy bonds in these countries now you will be guaranteed to have a lot less buying power in the future. Rather than get paid less than inflation why not instead buy stuff—any stuff—that will equal inflation or better? We see a lot of investments that we expect to do significantly better than inflation.”

USAGOLD note 1: Of course, the ultimate “stuff” – the ultimate stores of value – are gold and silver. But, Dalio cautions, policymakers “won’t like these capital movements out of debt assets and into other storeholds of wealth assets and other tax domains so they could very well impose prohibitions against capital movements to other assets (e.g., gold, Bitcoin, etc.) and other locations.” While we can only speculate what those “prohibitions” might look like, it is for these concerns that so many of our clients have diversified their holdings with historical bullion items, a trend that has only accelerated in 2021.

USAGOLD note 2: With modern bullion products in short supply and premiums to spot gold on one-ounce items like American Eagles approaching double digits, the cost differential to move into historical bullion coinage has never been narrower. Also, these products offer owners the opportunity to diversify into smaller, more negotiable sizes. We recently secured a significant position in arguably the most well-recognized and popular historic bullion item – British Sovereign Kings (pictured left) – which are quickly eclipsing modern bullion options in popularity under current market conditions. We invite you to call our Order Desk for details and product availability – I-800-869-5115 or orderdesk@usagold.com.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Bullion banks and hedge funds making moves in the gold and silver markets

King World News/Alasdair Macleod/3-19-2021

graphic image of group of green flags“Tonight’s Commitment of Traders report for last Thursday is a surprise. First, we see that the Swaps (bullion banks) are beginning to lose the battle to close their short positions, and the Producers/Merchants have reduced their net shorts. But the big surprise is the Managed Money category (hedge funds) which has gone net long 11,691 contracts.”

USAGOLD note: Trend reversals in the paper gold market may be green flagging higher gold prices, according to this timely analysis from Alasdair Macleod. We remind that hedge fund selling in the paper markets and gold ETFs were tagged not that long ago as one of the prime reasons for gold’s decline over the past several months. As such, the turning tide Macleod identifies might turn out to be significant.

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What’s the real price of gold?

Daily Reckoning/James Rickards

Repost from 3-15-2021

photo of gold American Eagles in stacks with $100 bills in background“I’m looking at a trading screen right now, and it displays a price of $1,733.80 per ounce. That price may change a bit by the time you read this, but it would only take a fresh glance at the screen to get the new price. Case closed. … If only things were that simple. They’re not. In fact, establishing prices for gold and silver is far more difficult than it sounds. Further, the different prices on offer and the reasons for those differences can tell us a lot about what’s going on right now in precious metals markets.”

USAGOLD note:  At times like these, when demand for physical metal is running through the roof and the price remains ring-fenced, investors wonder why the price isn’t flying wingman to demand instead. Ricards explains why in this analysis which will be of particular interest to newcomers to the gold and silver markets. “The cost of owning bullion coins or bars you can hold in your hand,” he says, “is materially higher than the official ‘prices’ you see listed on the exchanges. That tells you that actual bullion is considerably more scarce than paper bullion.”

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Has gold lost its glitter?

FortuneIndia/Anton T. Joseph

Repost from 3-12-2021

photo of gold Dutch Kings snip USAGOLD

“The yellow metal that turned less alluring in 2021 is slowly regaining its glitter. After its price dropped owing to the rising U.S. bond yields, and a rally in domestic stock markets, gold is all set to regain its glitter.”

USAGOLD  note: Question and answer without a lot of fuss …… but there is considerably more argued in gold’s favor at the link. We referenced this report in yesterday’s DMR and repost it here for those who may have missed it.

Photo:  Gold Netherland 10 Guilders [Kings]

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The dichotomy between paper and physical precious metals markets

Seeking Alpha/Equity Management Academ

Repost from 3-12-2021

graphic image of stock market charts thru the looking glass“All of these factors stress individual borrowers and banks. Less money is coming into the system, so the whole economy is starting to seize up, which will trigger a rise in precious metals prices as a safe haven. Kient argues as we have highlighted in earlier articles on Seeking Alpha that there are already shortages in silver and gold, which will only worsen with time. He, like us, also highlighted the divergence between the paper and physical markets. All of these factors suggest strongly that gold and silver prices will rise significantly. We strongly recommend that you go long gold and silver.”

USAGOLD note: Equity Management tells traders to get aggressive …… We add a caution that this is one firm’s recommendation. There are others who are just as convinced that we should prepare for more downside in precious metals prices. Our primary purpose in posting a link to this article is its exploration of the discontinuity between the paper and physical precious metals markets, an inconsistency we point to consistently here at USAGOLD.

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It’s not what you know. It’s what the market believes that matters.

Blain’s Morning Porridge/Bill Blain

Repost from 3-12-2021

“You may be a bone fide financial genius knowing the exact value of everything – but the market is just an enormous calculating machine. It may completely ignore your value and set a very, very different price. All of which means I can’t really explain why Tech stocks were off on a tear yesterday. Maybe it’s the cheques American’s are about to get through the post as a result of Stimulus Package 1.9? A relief rally? Or short-covering? Time to load up more on my Tesla leveraged short ETF I think.”

USAGOLD note:  Such thinking also applies, obviously, to the gold market. The markets are dominated by trend followers – whether they be carbon or silicon-based – unaware or indifferent to the approaching cliff.

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Why Italy’s central bank holds gold bullion

Banca d’Italia/Statement/Undated

Repost from 12-11-2020

‘Gold is an excellent hedge against adversity. Its price tends to rise when operators perceive the level of risk to be high, for instance during military escalation or, more often, financial crisis, when financial instruments, especially high risk ones like shares, plummet in value but gold tends to rise in price. Incorporating gold into a financial portfolio is a way of hedging against high-risk scenarios, however unlikely.”

USAGOLD note:  Why do central banks hold gold? By and large, they hold it for the same reasons you and I do. Bank of Italy’s clearly stated rationale is worth a full review at the link ……

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Ned Naylor-Leyland: ‘Disinvesting’ with gold, and why silver is the original decentralised, disruptive money

MoneyWeek/Merryn Somerset Web-interviewer

Repost from 3-9-2021

gold coins against background of bar and line charts stacks

“Merryn Somerset Webb talks to Jupiter’s Ned Naylor-Leyland about why gold is the best way to safely ‘park’ your wealth; why silver is the original form of disruptive decentralised money; and why bitcoin isn’t a long term option.”

USAGOLD note: They talk about gold, interestingly, as the neutral investment that outperforms a good many money managers, hence the reference in the headline to ‘disinvesting’ with gold.

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Fred Hickey interview: ‘What are we trying to do here? Protect ourselves against debasement.’

The Grant Williams Podcast/Interview of Fred Hickey

Repost from 12-7-2020

graphic image of gold flagsUSAGOLD note: Grant Williams and Bill Fleckenstein interview a newsletter writer we have featured here on occasion, Fred Hickey (The High Tech Strategist). The interview includes his controversial, and persuasive position on bitcoin (which is not favorable). He also spends a great deal of time on the gold market including what is behind the “perverse” sell-off of the past several months. We think you will draw much wisdom from this interview. “It looks like a perfect environment for gold,” Hickey says. “What are we trying to do here? Protect ourselves against debasement.”

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One bank – BoA – turns apocalyptic: ‘Buy humiliation, sell hubris’

Zero Hedge/Tyler Turden

Repost from 3-9-2021

photo of Fed chairman Powell at podium“Bigger picture secular low point for both inflation & interest rates; coming years will be marked by bigger government (public sector monopolistic), smaller world (globalization to localization), dollar debasement (inflation solves debt), a populist electorate (voting for UBI & MMT); all in an attempt to fight the War on Inequality (taxes, regulation, redistribution); ‘buy humiliation, sell hubris’ = inflation assets to beat deflation in coming years.”

USAGOLD note: Bank of America sees yield curve control as inevitable and as a trigger to asset volatility and dollar debasement.

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Gold and the Fed in 2021

SeekingAlpha/Craig Hemke

Repost from 1-25-2021

graphic image of a wizard in silouette“The internationally-recognized price of gold (and silver) is NOT based upon any sort of physical metal transaction. That’s so 1960s. Instead, the price is determined through the trading of digital derivative futures contracts in New York and unallocated forwards in London. So the only way price rises is when demand for these derivatives outstrips the supply. The big rally last summer was a period of Bank reluctance to add derivative supply, and price soared. Since then, Banks have felt more comfortable adding supply and prices have been driven consistently lower.”

USAGOLD note:  Craig Hemke raises a question we get often at USAGOLD: With gold demand running high (as it is now) why isn’t the price going up? For more on this subject, do not overlook the link to the 1974 communique on U.S. Treasury gold sales and the creation of “a sizable futures market” which came shortly thereafter. We referenced this article in this morning’s DMR and repost it here for those who may have missed it.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Why the silver price surge could be just getting started

Finance Magnates/Staff

Repost from 2-24-2021

graphic image of a bull looking ready to charge“What exists now in the silver market is a very unique phenomenon. This is due in large part to the physical market being virtually nonexistent, with supply running dangerously thin since the buyout earlier this month. As such, there remains very little physical silver for purchase, which in tandem with a catalyst could trigger a massive surge higher in the near- or mid-term.”

USAGOLD note:  The bullish case for silver……

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

EMA says gold and silver about to explode

Seeking Alpha/Equity Management Academy

Repost from 2-19-2021

graphic image of group of green flags“Gold and silver are reaching the point where they are about to explode. We are running out of silver supplies, especially for industrial uses. In March, we were low on supplies and the physical market included about an $80 premium for gold and silver over the paper price. In the past, the futures market led the way in price. The physical market is headquartered in London, while the paper market is in New York (COMEX). The Commitment of Traders shows that there are still massive short paper positions in precious metals, in excess of $38 billion, which has kept the price down. The current environment is similar to the 1970s, when we saw interest rates hit 14% and gold rallied from $130 up to $800 or $900 in 1981.”

USAGOLD note:  EMA remains very positive on future pricing. The technical buy triggers it is looking for have already been tested – $1780 for gold and $27.08 for silver.

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold: The winning investment of the 21st century

SeekingAlpha/Anna Sokolidou

Repost from 10-24-2020

cartoon showing bicycle with silver dollar wheels and no wheels bike at standstill

“As I have explained above, fiat currencies are devalued. It does not necessarily mean we will face hyperinflation. After all, we did not face that problem during the Great Recession after the Fed eased its monetary policy. However, the very expectation of high inflation and a deep economic crisis might make investors quite skeptical of the fiat currencies. What’s more, many investors will also probably be reluctant to buy stocks and corporate bonds. After all, economic hardships put significant pressure on many companies’ earnings. So, where should people invest? The most obvious answer is precious metals.”

USAGOLD note:  We concur.  In fact, we took pretty much the same tack  in this analysis first published in March of this year: Gold’s Century – While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

After golden year for precious metals, silver set to shine in 2021

Reuters/Peter Hobson

Repost from 1-2-2020

graphic image brush painting of a bull“After a spectacular year, precious metals are set for further gains in 2021, with silver tipped to outperform, but analysts are growing more cautious about the prospects for gold as the global economy recovers from the impact of the coronavirus.”

USAGOLD note:  Reuters weighs in on the precious metals for 2021 with a mostly bullish appraisal of the future.  2020, as Hobson points out, was a very good year ……

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold setting up major bottom so could we see a breakout rally soon?

Technical Traders/Chris Vermuellen/2-17-2021

Repost from 2-17-2021

graphic image of lines in the sand pointing higher“My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level.  As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.”

USAGOLD note:  A ray of light in an otherwise bleak setting from Mr. Vermuellen …… but first, he points out, $1765 must hold.


USAGOLD note (2-22-2021-AM): Half-hearted no more………Gold and silver staging strong rallies at mid-morning (MT). Gold bouncing off lows indicated by Vermuellen above warranting a repost. With nothing fundamental surfacing as yet, this morning’s upside appears to be the result of a technical rally and short-covering touched off by strong pricing in the commodities sector – oil up +3%, copper up +1.5%. LME Index up 2.96%……


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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

The fifth commodity supercycle has started, says highly regarded JPMorgan strategist

MarketWatch/Steve Goldstein

graphic image of money pallettes stacked“We believe that the tide on yields and inflation is turning, which will pose a major risk to multiasset portfolios.” – Marko Kolanovic, JP Morgan

USAGOLD note:  Marko Kolanovic echoes Steve Hanke’s call from a few days ago that we have now entered the initial stages of a commodity supercycle driven by “ultraloose monetary and fiscal policies.”


Repost from 2-16-2021

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold: To invest, or not to invest?

Arab News/Hala Tashkandi

gold coins against background of bar and line charts stacks“Gold can enhance any investment portfolio in four key ways. It generates long-term returns, acts as a diversifier and mitigates losses in times of market stress, provides liquidity with no credit risk and, finally, improves overall portfolio performance.”

USAGOLD note:  This article, written with the first-time investor in mind, lays out the basic rationale for gold ownership in clear-cut terms.


Repost from 12-30-2020

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Ignore all the market predictions for 2021 except this one

Bloomberg/Jared Dillian

artist rendering of a man chasing a shooting star“As long as Wall Street has been in existence, it has been a tradition around this time of year for market participants to make predictions about what might happen to stock prices, interest rates, commodities and exchange rates in the following 12 months. These predictions garner a lot of attention, as they are made by very smart people with access to the best data and vast resources at their disposal. And yet, far more often than not these predictions end up being hilariously wrong.”

USAGOLD note:  It is because markets and events are so unpredictable that gold (old reliable) makes so much sense as a portfolio inclusion. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, is among our favorite market commentators these days and we link his writings often here. Highly readable, baseline insight at the link above ……


Repost from 1-4-2021

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Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |