“Gold prices could outperform a lot of assets in the coming months. In fact, don’t rule out gold going for even $2,000 per ounce.The case for owning gold keeps getting stronger. You really potentially be making a big mistake if you ignore the yellow precious metal. Why be so bullish on gold? Well, there are a few factors that could raise the price of gold, including uncertainty, volatility, low interest rates, and money devaluation. And right now, a lot of these factors are coming into play, which could lead to gold prices skyrocketing.”
USAGOLD note: The influential Lombardi Letter weighs in on gold. The downside, it says, could be “very small” and the upside “immense.”
Repost from 6-19-2019
“ANZ analysts point out that gold has benefitted from its safe haven status amid deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and see prices settling above USD1,400/oz, with a reasonable chance of breaking USD1,500/oz over the next 12 months.”
USAGOLD note: ANZ (Australia New Zealand Banking Group) is Australia’s second largest bank. The link takes you to the rationale behind their positive forecast.
“That brings us to our call of the day from Citigroup analysts who say this ‘bullish gold fever is justified,’ and say the metal could reach between $1,500 to $1,600 an ounce in the next 12 months, and $1,500 by end-2019 in the most optimistic of their new predictions for the metal.”
USAGOLD note: A good many bank analysts will be adjusting their market forecasts based on events of the past week. Citigroup is among them. It has been bullish on the metal for some time now, but this forecast of $1500 to $1600 gold still comes as a surprise.
Gold could go to $1800 to $2200 in the long run
A number of technical analysts have reverted to a more bearish forecast over the past few weeks with the $1250 area once again being touted as the downside support area. Many of those same technical analysts, though, have a significantly more positive outlook for the longer term.
Among that group is Gary Wagner of the Wagner Financial Group who sees $1267 or even $1247 as possibilities in the short run, but also forecasts the possibility of $1800 to $2200 in the longer run. “Our research,” he explains in an article published recently at the Singapore Bullion Market Association website, “suggests that gold is in the final phase of a major long-term impulse cycle. This model also provides a look-back at the final major bullish wave could be traced back to end of 2015, following a correction to $1,040. This corrective fourth wave developed from the all-time high at $1,900 in 2011. The model suggests that gold could re-test the record highs that, if taken out, could see an extensive surge to between $1800 and $2200 per troy ounce.”
Caveat: At USAGOLD, it bears repeating, we have always advocated the ownership of both gold and silver coins and bullion for long-term asset preservation purposes rather than speculative gain. Though we pass along various projections, we do so with the caveat that anything can happen. The analyst who forecasts downside today can quickly change his or her outlook to the upside tomorrow – or vice versa. The long term charts for gold and silver, though, reveal a consistent upward trend that has served investors well in the period since 1971 when the global monetary system departed the gold standard and entered the fiat money era.
“The gold trade is shining bright. Investors rushed into the commodity on Thursday, pushing it to a four-month high. Gold is now just 1% away from its 52-week intraday high of $1,349.80 from February, and TradingAnalysis.com’s Todd Gordon believes it may soon surpass that level. After examining the charts, he says bullion could climb as high as $1,500.”
USAGOLD note: A very optimistic viewpoint as we move into what could be another eventful weekend. . . . . . .
Repost from 6-7-2019
“Bridgewater Associates didn’t have any major positions in gold ETFs until the second quarter of 2017. By the end of the third quarter of 2017, GLD formed 3.18% of the fund’s portfolio. Dalio likes gold due to its diversification and hedging properties. In a LinkedIn post last August, Dalio wrote, ‘If you don’t have 5–10% of your assets in gold as a hedge, we’d suggest that you relook at this. Don’t let traditional biases, rather than an excellent analysis, stand in the way of you doing this.'”
USAGOLD note: Bridgewater Associates is the largest hedge fund in the world, so 5% to 10% of its assets amounts to a considerable total. We would add that Dalio is not the only billionaire investor recommending gold ownership these days. Billionaires own ETFs to circumvent the insurance, security and storage problems. The typical private investor, on the other hand, can store his or her needs in an average-sized safety deposit box and avoid the costs and limitations imposed by ETFs. If you would like to learn more on that score, please give the TradingDesk a call.
Repost from 5-24-2019
“We remain positive on the outlook for gold. First, the decline in gold prices came to a halt above and relatively closely to the 200-day moving average, and thereafter prices bounced higher. This is a positive development from a technical point of view, and strengthens our case that gold prices will rally towards the end of this year. Our year-end target is USD 1,400 per ounce.”
USAGOLD note: ABN Amro adds its name to the list of analysts who think the second half of 2019 will be a good one for the yellow metal.
“Our researchers believe this current double-bottom setup is the last time you’ll see Gold prices below $1300 for quite some time in the future. Again, we were warning our followers that the opportunity to position their gold trades was setting up and this low-price setup may be the last time we see gold near these lows. Our current research suggests the bottoming is over and the new price leg should begin to prompt a gold price rally over the next 5~7+ weeks targeting a level well above $1375 initially.”
USAGOLD note: A bullish forecast for gold based on technical chart patterns from Chris Vermeulen who says “you better start planning for this upside move before you miss this bottom” which he calculates we are bumping along now.
Repost from 5-31-2019
“This divergence between gold (wait and see) and silver (start buying now) is confirmed by the gold/silver ratio, which is at a multi-year high, implying that silver is undervalued relative to gold. Past spikes in this ratio have preceded precious metals bull markets in which silver outperformed gold.”
USAGOLD note: Some interesting commodity-based findings from John Rubino suggesting a turnaround is in the making for silver. The last time the gold-silver ratio has not been this high in nearly 30 years.
Repost from 5-28-2019
“Traditional hedges gold and the yen have performed poorly since the beginning of the U.S.-China trade war, but that could now change given the more dovish monetary backdrop, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. A combination of a Federal Reserve that has stopped tightening policy and investor positioning that suggests the two assets are under-owned, could see their performance as hedges improve in 2019 and 2020, wrote strategists including John Normand in a note Friday.”
USAGOLD note: As we say repeatedly here, the ideal time to buy gold is when everything is quiet. . . .or to put it another way, when it is under-priced, under-owned and under-appreciated. Gold and the Japanese yen, as you can see in the charts below, have been travelling companions since the last financial crisis. The markets perceive both to be safe-havens, though there is no guarantee that the two will remain travelling companions in the future.
Repost from 5-23-2019
“Compared with stocks and other financial assets, gold looks inexpensive. More important, inflation is starting to pick up in the U.S. and in much of the world as central banks shrink their enormous balance sheets. And gold has represented a good defense against inflation eroding the value of a stock or bond portfolio.”
USAGOLD note: A lengthy, well-written excursion into the benefits of owning gold. Recommended reading from Barron’s. . . . .
Repost from late September but worth the reprise. . . . . .
“The next leg higher for Gold will see a price peak near $1450 before another brief sideways/stalling pattern sets up. After that, our research suggests a rally will quickly drive Gold prices above $1550 (or much higher). As we’ve been suggesting, Silver will likely lag behind Gold by about 20+ days. We believe Silver is going to see an incredible upside price move – even bigger than Gold in percentage terms. Our belief is that Silver will be trading above $26 to $28 per ounce – almost DOUBLE the recent low price level, when Gold will be trading just above $2000 per ounce. The reason for this is the relationship between the Gold/Silver/US Dollar pricing levels – called the Gold/Silver Ratio.”
USAGOLD note: A very optimistic forecast from a group that has made “some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.”
Repost from 5-15-2019
“Heng Koon How of United Overseas Bank says gold prices could rally in part because the ‘key central banks’ are allocating more into the safe haven asset.”
USAGOLD note: United Overseas Bank, a large multi-national financial institution located in Singapore, is bullish on gold for very sound, long-term reasons.
Repost from 5-15-2019
“We can best see gold’s potential giant base pattern on a 10-year chart. It can be described as a complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom or as a Saucer, and is best considered to be both, or perhaps as a hybrid having the characteristics of both patterns. In any event, as we can see on this chart, it appears to be drawing close to breaking out of it, which will be a very big deal if it happens, because a base pattern of this magnitude can support a massive bullmarket. As for timing it could take several months and it is most likely to happen during gold’s seasonally strong period from July through September. To maintain the bullish case it must stay above the Saucer boundary.”
USAGOLD note: We post Clive Maund’s forecasts from time to time – one of our favorite tech analysts. His latest is worth the visit – a positive prognosis for gold based on structural chart patterns.
Repost from 5-22-2019
“‘For much of 2018, investors tended to focus on other, higher-yielding asset classes [than gold],’ says a note from specialist analysts Metals Focus, ‘but we do expect this position to gradually change, especially during the latter part of 2019…[as] a slowdown in the US economy will encourage the Fed to adopt a far more dovish stance towards its interest rate policy.’ Forecasting that ‘a bull market in gold [will] emerge from late 2019 onwards,’ Metals Focus think that uptrend will then ‘remain in place for two to three years.'”
USAGOLD note (12-19-2019): Adrian Ash passes along another positive reading for the yellow metal for 2019, this time from London’s Metals Focus.
USAGOLD note (3-15-2019): This prediction from Metals Focus in December appears to have been prescient and unfolding on a timeline much sooner than originally anticipated. On December 19, the date Metals Focus released their study, gold was trading in the $1240 range. It reached $1340 February 19th, two months later, and is hovering now in the $1300 range.
Repost from 12-19-2018
“A slowing global economy, stock market turmoil, delays to interest rate rises and potential U.S. dollar weakness are expected to boost average annual gold prices to their highest since 2013, a Reuters poll found.”
USAGOLD note: Though the price projections seem on the low side, as is the case often in these kinds of surveys, it is good to see that a poll of top analysts and traders gives gold a positive outlook for the rest of 2019 and going into 2020.
Repost from 5-2-2019
“Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22. We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.”
USAGOLD note: As we like to mention regularly, when we post an opinion like this it is not necessarily because we endorse it. Rather, we think it worth passing along so that the reader can make his or her own judgement as to its usefulness. We continue to advise ownership of gold and silver for long-term asset preservation purposes rather than as vehicles for speculation.
“Tsaklanos expects ‘the gold market to build up energy during the summer.’ Any breakthrough, he predicts, ‘is likely going to happen in October or November, and it would pave the way to $1,550.'”
USAGOLD note: There is much on the table with respect to the price of gold, as well as other markets, much requiring a squaring of the books – a coming to terms. Time will tell whether or not that happens before the end of the year, but there are a good many who have come public with the determination that we are now in the calm before the storm.
“Today, fear of a financial collapse has receded, and so have the prices of both precious metals. Gold sits at about $1,300 and silver languishes a little above $15. Is it time to buy at these bargain prices? The answer is yes, especially silver, but not for the reasons you think.”
USAGOLD note: We at USAGOLD have long advocated adding silver to the mix for portfolio insurance purposes especially at times like the present when the gold-silver ratio is high (now 85 to 1). At the same time, we do not advocate silver at the exclusion of gold, but more as an adjunct through which the investor conceivably can get more bang for his or her buck if silver outperforms gold to the upside.
Image courtesy of © Degussa Goldhandl 2019
Repost from 4-3-2019
“The second part of our forecast in 1981 said that according to our very long-term cycle study, that bear market would be followed by a 30-year rise in gold. We even said we had no idea what would cause it, but the cycles said it should happen. If the forecast I made in 1981 still holds true, gold could have a continued secular bull market until 2030. That means the gold bull market could have about 11 more years to go. Historically, the final phase of a bull market is the most spectacular.”
USAGOLD note: Dohmen’s conclusions are worth noting in that he called the twenty-year bear market for gold that began in 1981 and ended in 2001.
Repost from 4-23-2019
“With the setup for silver now looking at its most healthy for a long time, what do the latest COTs have to tell us? You are invited to directly compare the latest COT chart for silver with its 1-year chart above, which is another reason a 1-year timeframe for one of the silver charts was selected. This is edge of the chair stuff for as we can see silver’s COT is at its most bullish since last November when the silver price was down making the 2nd low of its Double Bottom.There was a big drop in Commercials’ short positions last week and the Large Specs, who love to give up at the bottom, have thrown in the towel and legged it for the hills, which is just what we want to see before a rally.”
USAGOLD note: No rally like a silver rally. . . .We have had a steady stream of silver buyers at USAGOLD over the past several weeks buying both bars and bullion coins. Maund offers TA insights at the link above . . . .
Image courtesy of DeGussaGoldHandl
Repost from 4-23-2019
“Essentially, the West will see fading growth. The Fed’s actions will be negative for the dollar and positive for the fear trade for gold. The East will see solid growth and that will be supportive for the love trade for gold.”
USAGOLD note: Stewart Thompson lays out the case for gold with 24 quick-read nuggets that tell why a huge relief rally is imminent. . . . .
“[Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper] expects the yellow metal to test last year’s closing high of $1362 an ounce in the final three months of the year. And, her forecast gets even more bullish by 2020. ‘We actually think gold prices are more likely to break upside further in 2020 averaging $1375 next year,’ said Cooper.”
USAGOLD note: A positive note on a negative day that improves as it wears on. . . . .
“‘Silver does not represent large components of end products,’ Smirnova explains, pointing out that electronics, cars, and medicines don’t use a lot of the metal per unit, so an economic slowdown probably won’t have a big impact on it. Its use in solar applications is also ‘insulated from economic growth” because that market is ‘more driven by government incentives and the need for renewable energy.’ Instead, it’s the ‘return of retail investment demand [that] will be the driving force behind an increase in the silver price,’ Smirnova predicts.”
USAGOLD note: Conclusions similar to our own. . . We will remind our readers that when silver moves to the upside, it tends to move in grand fashion. Please see chart above.
Repost from 4-15-2019
USAGOLD note: “Men, it has been well said,” says Charles Mackay in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, “think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” At present we are experiencing a modern-day version of that process at USAGOLD. We do not have a rush to buy gold at the moment. Instead, we are experiencing a steady stream of new clientele interested in hedging the extremes Polleit outlines in the report linked above. In addition, clients who bought early in gold’s secular bull market (the early 2000s) and then later sold at higher prices (2010-2015) are now returning to the market as buyers. Usually they cite a combination of attractive pricing and the presence of various underlying risks in the financial system as driving that decision
(USAGOLD-April 1, 2019) – The U.S. Mint reports sales of American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins running well ahead of last year’s pace at the end of March. Gold Eagle sales were up 33.3% over last year’s first quarter performance while Silver Eagle sales were up 37.9% over the same period. Month over month, Gold Eagle sales were more than three times higher than sales from March of last year. Silver Eagle sales were down 7% when compared to March of last year. Many analysts consider bullion coin sales a bellwether for interest in the precious metals. This year’s strong uptick indicates increased activity among American investors interested in including gold and silver in their holdings as safe-haven hedges and an underpriced asset class.
Repost from 4-3-2019
“The 7% increase in price [predicted recently by the Silver Institute] that is forecast to occur, if it will materialize, will be the beginning of a sustained silver price boom, which might last decades. The supply/demand dynamics make it imperative for this to happen, which is why I have been steadily buying physical silver in the past few years.”
USAGOLD note: We will remind our readers that when silver moves to the upside, it tends to move in grand fashion. Please see chart above.
Repost from 4-3-2019
“‘Gold is likely to rise to $1,400 per troy ounce by year’s end. . . ‘We expect a silver price of $16.50 per troy ounce at year’s end. This would mean a gold/silver ratio of 85.’”
USAGOLD note: Commerzbank believes that central banks continue to be a strong market for gold for the rest of 2019. . . .
Repost from 3-20-2019
“But, I think silver has been providing us with the clearest indications in the metals market. It had me looking higher as we caught that bottom in November of last year, and it had me looking for a pullback when we were topping out at the end of January. In fact, even in the smaller degree moves, we caught the top in silver last week, and have been looking down for a drop since then. But, now, silver is providing us with a bottoming indication rather than a selling indication.”
USAGOLD note: Giving credence to Gilburt’s prediction, we have had an influx of investors in recent weeks buying silver coins (usually American Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs) and bullion. A good portion of the volume is from investors buying for their Individual Retirement Accounts and other retirement plans.
“Gold is a highly liquid yet scarce asset, and it is no one’s liability. It is bought as a luxury good as much as an investment. As such, gold can play four fundamental roles in a portfolio:
–a source of long-term returns
–a diversifier that can mitigate losses in times of market stress
–a liquid asset with no credit risk that has outperformed fiat currencies
–a means to enhance overall portfolio performance.”
USAGOLD note: Why gold makes sense for private investors as a long-term, all-weather portfolio addition. . . . . . .
“In her latest precious-metals report Thursday, Georgette Boele, coordinator of foreign exchange and precious metals strategy at ABN AMRO, said that the metal’s technical outlook supports higher prices. ‘Despite the recent sharp decline in prices, prices are still above the 200-day moving average at around $1,250 per ounce,’ Boele said. ‘We are confident that prices will stay above this level. It is possible that prices drop towards this level and test it, but this would be an opportunity to position for higher gold prices.'”
USAGOLD note: Gold popped back over the $1300 mark in overnight trading . . . . Here at USAGOLD we are beginning to see a slow but sure return to a buy the dip mentality among investors.
“But there’s fashion and there’s style; they’re not the same thing. Fashion is temporary and changes. Style is permanent and adapts. Investing in stocks, outside of a clear strategy based on a buy-and-hold approach, is often a fashion. Gold may be traditional now, but it’s never out of style. And it may soon become fashionable again. Indeed, the change, or the shift, has already begun.”
USAGOLD note: The allusion to fashion reminds us of the old maxim that an ounce of gold from time immemorial would always buy a quality man’s suit. “The price of a fine suit of men’s clothes,” wrote the U.S. Geological Survey last year, “can be used to show anyone who is not familiar with the price history of gold just how very cheap gold is today. With an ounce of gold, a man could buy a fine suit of clothes in the time of Shakespeare, in that of Beethoven and Jefferson, and in the depression of the 1930s.” At present, a quality men’s off-the-rack suit at Brooks Brothers without the shoes and tie ranges in price from $1700 to $2500.
Repost from 11/5/2019
“The rather sharp drop in gold late last week, especially on Friday, came as something as a shock to many investors in the sector, yet as we will proceed to see it was set up to react back here or soon, and a period of consolidation or reaction at around this level will actually put it in a better technical condition to mount a sustainable breakout above the key $1400 level. On its latest 7-month chart the 1st point to observe is that gold is still well within our parabolic uptrend, whose lower boundary is coming into play and providing support, as is the rising 50-day moving average, with additional support being generated by premature sellers in the small Pennant pattern that formed during the first half of January. This is why it closed well off the lows on Friday, and why it could now resume the upward path again soon . . .”
USAGOLD note: Clive Maund weighs in with expert technical analysis following Friday’s breakdown. . . . . .The chart pattern below depicts what he calls a “building parabolic slingshot”.
Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com
“What this 40-year gold price chart learns for 2019 and 2020 is that there is a fair chance that gold’s price will rise to the top of this channel provided that 1200 holds strong as a monthly close. That’s also what we have been repeating recently: the importance of $1200. As gold is getting a bid now we expect gold to rise to $1650 at a certain point where it will meet heavy resistance. This might happen in 2019 already but, for this, we need the lower time frames.”
USAGOLD note: In this short, but fundamentally sound, study from Taki Tsaklanos, he makes a point we have emphasized for many years here at USAGOLD: “First, market-wise, the gold price started trading ‘freely’ with an open market in 1971, on August 15th. That’s when President Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard. So any historic gold price chart should be after that date, as before it was not really relevant.” That is why most of our work on the long-term outlook for gold includes charts beginning in 1970-1971.
Economic analysis should be split into two eras – BDL and ADL, before and after the 1971 delinking of the dollar and gold. (In a recent seminar, Grant Williams of Things That Make You Go. . ‘hmmm’ fame used a series of our long-term gold charts to make the same point.) Nixon commented at the time: “We are all Keynesians now.” The full implementation of Keynesian thought dreamed by academics had become an economic reality, and in the process and inadvertently cemented gold’s role as a long-term portfolio hedge.
Repost from 12-31-2019
“To summarise the point; far from there being a dollar shortage, as market participants believe, the world is awash with dollars to an extraordinary degree. The great dollar unwind is now overhanging markets, which will remove the principal depressant on the gold price. And when it begins, as a source of supply these hot-money dollars will be seen as the continuation of escalating supply, with the prospect of future US trade and budget deficits to be discounted. These dynamics are a duplication of those that led to the failure of the London gold pool in the late-sixties, which led to the abandonment of the Bretton Woods gold-dollar relationship in 1971. And as I argue later in this article, the supply of physical liquidity in bullion markets to satisfy demand arising from dollar liquidation is extremely tight.”
USAGOLD note: Alasdair Macleod covers much ground in this important essay. For those who would like to establish solid intellectual footing in a contemporary context for what many believe will be the next leg in gold’s secular bull market, Gold – A perfect storm for 2019 is a good place to start. His allusions to the late 1960s struck a chord with me – a time when an upward revaluation of gold was roiling under the placid surface of the global monetary scene. Only a handful noticed. According to Macleod, the revaluation process is scheduled to begin in 2019. His essay is highly recommended. . . . .
Repost from 12-23-2018
“They like gold on the idea that the Fed will erode real yields to spur the economy, undermining the dollar. . . ‘While we may continue to hold various trades that benefit from the broader macro and policy context, the ones less likely to be unwound until much later in the inflation cycle are these two,’ JPMorgan said, referring to gold and TIPS.”
USAGOLD note: JP Morgan looks to be on the gold bandwagon for the long term.
“Trading is a cycle and the next stage in the cycle is precious metals, say experts. . . We all know that gold is going to profit from the current situation,’ said one older trader whose market knowledge spanned five decades or more. ‘The moment of truth is coming very soon.'”
USAGOLD note: The time to buy gold is when everything is quiet – before gold cycles back into the headlines again.
“‘The market on a risk reward basis is dangerous,’ he said. ‘We do feel as if individuals ought to cut back their equity exposure. Instead, Tice recommends buying gold, an asset he holds. ‘I’m a believer that gold represents true money. We are in a fiat money world, and it’s dangerous not to have some gold in your portfolio,’ Tice said.”
USAGOLD note: Tice adds his name to the long list of fund managers hedging their exposure to stocks with an investment in gold.
Repost from 2-8-2018
“Gold has gotten a boost over the past three months, rising more than 4%, as investors flock to so-called “safe-haven” trades, and the commodity is headed even higher in 2019, according to strategists.”
USAGOLD note: A rundown on how various analysts at major trading firms see gold for 2019. Some interesting insights. . . . . . .Psychologically, at least, the tide seems to be turning in gold’s favor.
Repost from 12-23-2019
IGUK/VideoInterview of Ross Norman (Sharps Pixley)/1-30-2019
“As the price of gold storms to a new seven month high, Ross Norman, chief executive officer (CEO) at Sharps Pixley, discusses the London Bullion Market Association (LMBA) forecasts for 2019. Norman, who has been the best forecaster amongst the LMBA over the last 20 years, tells IG that he believes $1,360 is the price to watch. He discusses where the demand is coming from and why the retail investor and trader is the missing link.”
USAGOLD note: Ross Norman explains why the situation in 2019 looks a lot like 1999 at the link above and why a breach of $1360 to the upside could turn out to be an important development.
Repost from 2/6/2019
“Gold gets put forth as a hedge for inflation, a safety play in times of trouble and a commodity play. Whether that’s true is irrelevant to a technical trader. All that matters is the price action. And gold’s price action has been great.”
USAGOLD note: For the techies out there. . . .An interesting piece of very positive technical analysis from someone who once described gold as “nothing more than a shiny rock.”
Repost from 1/31/2019
“That could all be changing now, as silver has become increasingly attractive to investors looking for undervalued asset classes or safe-haven investments. Silver is benefiting from the persistent trade war, government shutdown, weakening dollar and a more dovish Federal Reserve. The FED held rates steady at the FOMC meeting yesterday and stressed that they will be patient with future rate hikes. They also suggested that the FED balance sheet may not shrink much further.”
USAGOLD note: Surprisingly, since gold and silver started their uptrend late last summer, both are up the same number – roughly 13%. In other words, silver has not outperformed gold as many thought it would. – at least so far. That doesn’t mean it won’t in the future. The gold-silver ratio is still nearly 83 to one and still bumping along near its highs since 1970 (See chart below.)
Chart courtesy of MacroTrends.net
“Carter Worth, Cornerstone Macro, on whether there’s a gold rally on the horizon.”
USAGOLD note: If you already own gold, you are going to like this interview. If you do not own it, you might want to take note that Carter Worth emphasizes we are early in the game. He makes his case through a series of interesting charts.
Investors purchase 1090 tonnes of gold in coins and bars – 2018
“Annual gold demand gained 4% on highest central bank buying in 50 years. Gold demand in 2018 reached 4,345.1t, up from 4,159.9t in 2017 and in line with the five-year average of 4,347.5t. A multi-decade high in central bank buying (651.5t) drove growth. Demand was bumped up in Q4 by 112.4t of ETF inflows, but annual inflows into these products (of 68.9t) were 67% lower than 2017. Investment in bars and coins accelerated in the second half of the year, up 4% to 1,090.2t in 2018. Full year jewellery demand was steady at 2,200t. Gold used in technology climbed marginally to 334.6t in 2018, although growth ran out of steam in Q4. Annual gold supply firmed slightly to 4,490.2t, with mine production inching up to a new high of 3,364.9t.”
USAGOLD note: Wanted to get this link posted for those who like to follow fundamental trends in the physical gold bullion market. We hope to take a closer looks at WGC annual assessment over the next few days and report back with our own observations and analysis.
The Alchemist/January 2019
“Gold will hit $1,500 an ounce in 2019, according to Metalla Royalty & Streaming director E.B. Tucker, who is not shying away from his bullish call this year.”
USAGOLD note: We will mention once again that we have not seen many bearish calls for gold in 2019 from the professional investment community. That doesn’t mean that it will be clear sailing for the year, but there is something to be said for the fact that top money managers and analysts, by and large, have a positive opinion of the yellow metal.
“In its 2019 forecast, MKS PAMP Group said that they see gold prices hitting a high of $1,460 an ounce with prices averaging the year around $1,355 an ounce. This is one of the most bullish forecasts in the precious metals space and represents a gain of nearly 13% from current prices. ‘We view 2019 as a year of assets rebalancing and fresh money to flow into gold,’ the analysts said in their report.”
USAGOLD note: MKS PAMP Group is Swiss-based gold refiner known for it globally traded gold bars.
“Gold will climb to $1,425/oz. over the next 12 months, a level not seen in more than five years, the Goldman Sachs analyst team predicts in joining an increasing number of bullish takes on the yellow metal.”
“The three legs that supported gold’s extended rally from just after the 2008 global recession until the all-time peak in 2011 may be making something of a comeback this year. This is sparking hopes that the precious metal may finally break out of a fairly narrow five-year range, although it’s still far from certain that the dynamics for a sustained rally are entrenched.”
USAGOLD note: A solid, optimistic overview for those wanting to learn more about what is driving gold demand and prices at this point in time from Reuters Asia Commodities and Energy columnist.
“If we are, as I believe, on the precipice of a major decline in stocks, the question in my mind as we head into 2019 is to what extent U.S. Treasuries will continue to be the main go-to market in the risk-off trade and to what extent might a loss of confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency lead to a rise in the price of gold?”
USAGOLD note: Rubino quotes Jay Talor’s newsletter extensively. . . . .Please see Jay Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks
“Alan Greenspan says the party’s over on Wall Street. The former Federal Reserve chairman who famously warned more than two decades ago about ‘irrational exuberance’ in the stock market doesn’t see equity prices going any higher than they are now. ‘It would be very surprising to see it sort of stabilize here, and then take off,’ Greenspan said in an interview with CNN anchor Julia Chatterley. He added that markets could still go up further — but warned investors that the correction would be painful: ‘At the end of that run, run for cover.'”
USAGOLD note: Greenspan over the years has consistently advocated gold ownership as a means to hedging the next financial crisis.
Repost from 12-18-2018
“What this 40 year gold price chart learns for 2019 and 2020 is that there is a fair chance that gold’s price will rise to the top of this channel provided that 1200 holds strong as a monthly close. That’s also what we have been repeating recently: the importance of $1200. As gold is getting a bid now we expect gold to rise to $1650 at a certain point where it will meet heavy resistance. This might happen in 2019 already but, for this, we need the lower timeframes.”
USAGOLD note: In this short but fundamentally sound study from Taki Tsaklanos published at InvestingHaven, he makes a point we have emphasized for many years here at USAGOLD: “First, market-wise, the gold price started trading ‘freely’ with an open market in 1971, on August 15th. That’s when President Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard. So any historic gold price chart should be after that date, as before it was not really relevant.” That is why most of our work on the long-term outlook for gold includes charts beginning in 1970-1971.
Economic analysis should be split into two eras – BDL and ADL, before and after the 1971 delinking of the dollar and gold. (In a recent seminar, Grant Williams of Things That Make You Go. . ‘hmmm’ fame used a series of our long-term gold charts to make the same point.) Nixon commented at the time that “We are all Keynesians now.” The full implementation of Keynesian thought dreamed by academics had become an economic reality, and in the process cemented gold’s role as a long-term portfolio hedge.
This service also forecasts future prices for oil and silver plus a range of other assets.
USAGOLD note: How anyone could make forecasts like this so far in advance and with such a degree of specificity is beyond us. . . .but we thought we would provide the link nevertheless. Its forecasts for gold are within reasonable ranges, but will come off as restrained to a good many. A lot of water is going to run under the bridge between now and 2022. . . . . . .
“CNBC’s Jim Cramer shares his frustration about the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and tells investors there’s a bull market in gold.”
USAGOLD note: The Mad Money host has come out in favor of gold ownership in the past. Of late, he’s become more steadfast in that advocacy.
“The six-month, or 26-week, momentum signal could be struck anytime now. All gold needs to do is touch $1,270, which is a few dollars away, or stay at current levels while that six-month high keeps on dropping. Either way, the bears will have their shorts pulled down.”
USAGOLD note: Morris goes through a well-conceived checklist – his first advisory in over a year – why we might be on the verge of a new bull market in gold. “$1776 anyone?” he asks.
“The recent bounce in gold has so far happened without a similar move in silver. That might be about to change, according to Saxo Bank A/S. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, tracks the ratio of gold to silver and said the recent moves point in favor of higher silver prices. The ratio has been stretched out in recent months, showing that silver is the cheapest relative to gold in 25 years.”
USAGOLD note: Clients interested in silver tend to favor the one-ounce silver bullion coins with the American Eagle heading the list. Another favorite is our impressive five-coin Silver Stacker Sets which include the top selling silver coins globally. You can review silver bullion coin options at our Online Order Desk or by calling our Trading Desk 1-800-869-5115 x100.
“We are of the view that the US dollar and US Treasury yields have peaked. We also expect that US economic growth will peak this quarter. During the next two years, we expect lower US economic growth and lower 2y and 10y US Treasury yields. We expect the Fed to hike in December 2018 and one more time in 2019, some time during the first half. Going forward, the 2y US Treasury yields will probably rise in tandem with inflation expectations. So real yields will likely not rise. All these factors support our view that the US dollar has peaked and will weaken in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, we expect gold prices to rally in 2019.”
USAGOLD note: One of Europe’s biggest banks, the Netherlands’ ABN-Amro, weighs in on gold for 2019 with a strong endorsement for the future. It sees gold at $1400 by year-end the resulting from a confluence of factors covered briefly at the link above.
Image: Collection of Netherlands 10 guilder gold coins available at our Online Order Desk or by calling 1-800-869-5115 x100. Start the New Year right by making a solid addition to your investment portfolio in these increasingly uncertain times.
Repost from 12-6-2018
“‘In our view, gold has fallen too far,’ Commerzbank said. ‘The current price hardly reflects the numerous political and economic uncertainties prevailing. The record level of speculative net short positions suggests a substantial price rally before the end of the year. Given the lower starting point, we are lowering our forecast for year-end to $1,300 per troy ounce. We still expect the price to rise in 2019 to $1,500.’”
“We think that silver prices have seen the low and we expect higher prices from now. For a start, we expect the US dollar to weaken and US Treasury yields to decline in our forecast horizon. Silver prices tend to rally when the US dollar and US Treasury yields are lower. Moreover, we expect a recovery in the Chinese yuan and also a recovery in the Indian rupee. This will brighten the demand outlook for silver prices.”
USAGOLD note: The 85-1 ratio to gold adds to silver’s appeal at this point in time. Silver tends to rise faster than gold in up markets and fall faster than gold in down markets. The American silver eagle (pictured above) is a high-volume alternative popular with U.S. investors. You can purchase this item either at our Online Order Desk or by phone at 1-800-869-5115 x100.
“’Given the size of dislocations in commodity pricing relative to fundamentals — with oil now having joined metals in pricing below cost support — we believe commodities offer an extremely attractive entry point for longs in oil, gold and base,’ analysts including Jeffrey Currie said in a report.”
USAGOLD note: Currie believes the rebound could begin as early as this week at the G-20 conference in Buenos Aires. Oil moved higher in overnight trading following last week’s declines.
Repost from 11/26/2018
“2019 will see the start of a new bull cycle for gold and push the metal up to $1,500 an ounce, said E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. ‘To make big money in this market, you have to see the cycles. Nothing changes. We’ve had three big cycles in gold since 2000 and we’re about to have another one,’ Tucker told Kitco News.”
USAGOLD note: With this post, we launch the annual new year prediction festivities. . . . . . .For the rest of Tucker’s interview with Daniella Cambone please visit the link above.
“Metals should be primary beneficiaries of an imminent greenback peak, with normalization in U.S. stock-market outperformance, Federal Reserve tightening near a finish and the trade-weighted broad dollar approaching multiyear highs. Though the dollar tops the list of this year’s best performing major assets, gold and copper show divergent strength. . . .Indications from precious metals, notably gold, offer a setup that’s similar to natural gas before its big rally.”
USAGOLD note: McGlone’s argues a strong gold market in concert with a general rise in the commodities complex – rallying from a “compressed range.” (Please see below.)
Natural gas chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com
“As I was shuffling papers in some old files, I came across a slip of paper on which I had written down the price I had paid for a Mexican $50 gold peso coin: $717 Mexican pesos.”
USAGOLD note: An interesting story about a gold coin a good many of our clients own – the beautiful Mexican 50 peso pictured above. We have a handful in inventory if anyone is interested. . . . . Either call our Order Desk (1-800-869-5115 x100) or order online here. We think you will enjoy Hugo Salinas Price’s story at the link above.
“We still keep a bullish bias in place for the second half of 2019, as we believe the development of an inverted yield curve in the U.S. will likely attract increased interest in gold among investors,” [J.P. Morgan’s Natasha] Kaneva said.”
USAGOLD note: J.P. Morgan’s rationale leads it to a $1294 average for 2018. . . .UP, but not up, up and away. . . . .Overall we would characterize the Wall Street bank’s forecast as mildly bullish.