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Gold in six easy lessons
1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already have.
2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.
3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.
4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.
5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.
6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!
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Drivers behind the recent gold rally
World Gold Council/Adam Perlaky
“Gold rallied nearly 4% in December, mainly in the second half of the month, and recently moved to an intraday high of US$1,613/oz as the US-Iran confrontation unfolded. We believe there are a few likely reasons for the move. . .”
USAGOLD note: In this article, Perlaky runs through six factors driving gold to higher ground over the past few weeks in the paper gold market – four of which are not commonly tracked in financial media including the positive effects of derivatives’ positioning, why light trading volumes have made a difference, and professional investor portfolio positioning prior to the end of the year. He also offers a few brief thoughts on three drivers that have gotten a lot of attention in financial media – technical charting signals (please see chart below), the Fed’s repo policies and geopolitical risks. All in all, an informative look at what drove the recent run-up in gold prices.
Chart courtesy of the World Gold Council
Repost from 1-14-2020
I wouldn’t be surprised to see $3,000 gold: David Rosenberg
YouTube/Financial Post/Video Interview of David Rosenberg
“What is amazing about this run-up in gold that we have seen is that it has taken place with the U.S. dollar actually quite firm.”
USAGOLD note: David Rosenberg is chief economist at Gluskin Sheff and Associates and a highly-respected Wall Street analyst. We were a bit surprised at his $3000 forecast for gold. He explains how it is possible to a skeptical host.
Repost from 9-16-2019
Here’s where gold will be in 2026
Daily Reckoning/James Rickards/1-7-2020
“Well, I worked on Wall Street and in the hedge fund industry for decades. I also lived among the players in New York and Greenwich, Connecticut, at the same time. I’ve met the top hedge fund gurus in private settings. And here’s the thing: I’ve never met one of them who does not have a large hoard of physical gold stored safely in a nonbank vault. Not one.”
USAGOLD note: That’s quite a statement. . . .At the link, Rickards tells where he thinks gold will be in 2026.
Image courtesy of Visual Capitalist
Repost from 1-10-2020
Favorable conditions are likely to propel silver much higher
“With the significant decline in the US Monetary Base since 2016, there are some serious threats facing the monetary system. These are setting up really favourable conditions for Silver prices and the position it has in the international monetary system. The expectation for much higher Silver prices are certainly reflected in the charts. I have previously presented this chart (now updated) to show how the current bottoming process (2015 to 2018) is similar to that of 2001 to 2003 . . .”
USAGOLD note: Moolman goes on to say that “this time we will likely see far greater price increases in a shorter period, especially given the serious threats facing the monetary system.” Though Moolman’s thesis is intriguing to say the least, we feel the necessity to caution once again that past performance is no guarantee of future results. His chart is reproduced with permission.
Bloomberg gold interviews
USAGOLD note: Back to back interviews of Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper, LGT Bank’s Stefan Hofer and Plurimi Wealth’s Patrick Armstrong . . . Worth a visit as all the interviews take the situation with Iran into account.
Repost from 1-10-2020
The Iranian trigger and why 2020 will be momentous year for gold and silver
KingWorldNews/James Turk/1-6-2020
“Currency debasement – or currency destruction in the case of Venezuela and dozens of other countries – means higher gold prices. The Iranian situation is just the trigger causing this latest jump in the gold price. And when people seek protection of their wealth from geopolitical events, they don’t want paper gold, they want the real thing – physical metal.
USAGOLD note: Turk says gold is in a bull market and sheds light on the ‘whale versus whale’ confrontation developing in the gold futures market.
Silver Market Update
Clive P. Maund/Technical Analyst
“While silver’s charts do not yet look as positive as gold’s, that is normal at this early stage in the cycle, when gold is favored over silver, which attracts more speculative interest as the bullmarket progresses. Nevertheless, as we can see on the latest 10-year chart for silver below, it is starting to look a lot better as it hauls itself up out of the 2nd low of the giant Double Bottom pattern shown.”
USAGOLD note: The outlook for silver in 2020 from one of our favorite technical analysts. . . . .
Repost from 1-3-2020
Holmes sees gold going up as much as 20% in 2020
Bloomberg/Lisa Abramowitz and Paul Sweeney /Audio Interview
USAGOLD note: U.S. Global Investors’ Frank Holmes says negative interest rates are what’s behind the strong performance for gold in 2019. He also says there is a possibility we will see $1800 to $1900 in 2020.
Image courtesy of Degussa Goldhandel
Repost from 1-2-2020
Gold’s next big bull market may be upon us
Bloomberg Opinion/John Authers/1-6-2019
“If gold’s implicit prediction is right, it has two implications. The first and most important one is a belief that inflation is at last due to return, after many false alarms. The second is that gold is now settled in a bull market.”
USAGOLD note: Those of you who frequent this page know of my long-standing appreciation for the work of John Authers who used to write for the Financial Times but is now at Bloomberg. In this article, he tells why gold might be in the early stages of a new bull market. We encourage a visit to the link to learn more about the “implicit prediction” he mentions above.
Gold hits 6-year high with Goldman backing bullion over oil
Bloomberg/Ranjeetha Pakiam and Justina Vasquez/1-5-2020
“‘History shows that under most outcomes gold will likely rally to well beyond current levels,’ [Goldman Sachs] analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin said in a note. That’s ‘consistent with our previous research, which shows that being long gold is a better hedge to such geopolitical risks.’”
USAGOLD note: Goldman has become one of the more consistent and vocal advocates of gold ownership on Wall Street over the past several months. . . . .
Hold 20% in gold as global economy is an accident waiting to happen – Frank Giustra
Kitco/Interview of Frank Giustra
“I believe we are overdue for some kind of accident in the financial markets. Some, yet unknown catalyst will set off a chain of events that will destroy a lot of wealth. Be ready, because at some point, there will be tremendous opportunities to invest in. In the meantime, stay liquid and make sure you own a lot of gold.”
USAGOLD note: Kitco asks “how would you invest $100,000 in the next decade.” Frank Giustra, chairman of Leagold, answers. . . . .
Repost from 12-27-2019
‘Watch gold’ — Blackstone’s Byron Wien teases 2020 market surprises
“He said he didn’t include the bonus gold prediction in his 2020 list because he included something ‘similar’ in 2019 and, ‘I don’t do it two years in a row.'”
USAGOLD note: He was right for 2019 as gold turned in a pretty good year. Will he be right for 2020? A number of analysts agree with him that 2020 could be another good year for the yellow metal.
Repost from 12-24-2019
Reiterating bull market
Atlas Pulse Gold Report/Charlie Morris/December 2019
“Unlike the gold bugs, I’m not a broken record. And unlike the barbarous relic brigade, I recognise gold’s importance in the modern world. Atlas Pulse analyses the gold price and outlines the bull/bear regime with the reasons why. It is an evidence-based approach with an enviable track record. I tell it how I see it and find the air-punching narratives tedious. You won’t find one here.”
USAGOLD note: We referenced this report in yesterday’s DMR and call attention to it again here for those who may have missed it. Morris comes to some interesting conclusions as to where gold is headed in the years to come. . . .all presented with a clear rationale at the link above.
Repost from 12-17-2019
The next decade looks promising but still hold 30% in gold – Dennis Gartman
KitcoNews/Neils Christenson interview of Dennis Gartman
“The big trend shall be a return to the commodity markets as inflationary pressures finally return, given the expansionary policies presently being followed by the leading and the second-tier central banks.”
USAGOLD note: Gartman says he is retiring from the newsletter-writing business, but not before recommending gold play a prominent role in the portfolio for the next decade. He joins a number of analysts warning of inflation’s return as the new decade unfolds.
Repost from 12-24-2019
The gold party has only just begun
“Gold is positioned to remain an indispensable component of the portfolio in the future, as it lets the investor navigate stressful passages in the market with relative ease.”
USAGOLD note: Stoferle reviews the factors that accrued as positive for gold in 2019 – the very same factors, he says, that will “remain in 2020”.
Repost from 12-24-2019
Bullish Mark Mobius: Gold price to double in ten years
“‘I am bullish on gold. I am not saying that gold is not going to go down because it is going to fluctuate, but people should have at least 10 percent of their portfolio in physical gold,’ he said.”
USAGOLD note: Mobius sticks with his 10% recommendation and his bullish call on the yellow metal.
Repost from 11-26-2019
Sentiment Speaks: Setting up a U.S. dollar crash and metals rise
“[W]e think that the US Dollar has begun a major decline phase, which will likely take us into the 2021 time-frame. Moreover, with the metals currently setting up for what can be a multi-year rally as well (as I discussed in my prior metals articles), this is one commonly held correlation belief that seems to be supported by the underlying charts we track.”
USAGOLD note: Avi Gilbert bases his analysis on Elliot Wave Theory and now thinks the cycle is turning in gold’s favor and against the dollar. For the full analysis, we recommend a visit to the link.
Repost from 12-24-2019
Heritage Capital: Gold price to hit $3,000 in next decade
NewsMaxFinance-Yahoo/Staff/12-23-2019
“Schatz thinks Goldman’s forecast is too low [for 2020]. ‘I think Goldman is way off here,’ he said. ‘$1,600 is going to be a footnote.’”
USAGOLD note: This article reviews forecasts from a number of analysts including Heritage Capital’s Paul Schatz. Needless to say, our clientele would be greatly pleased with a decade that included a $3000 gold price.
‘Very bullish’ on gold – Murenbeeld
SharpsPixley/Lawrie Williams/12-24-2019
“Dr. Murenbeeld’s annual gold forecasts are highly rated by followers of the gold market and this writer is among these. While he has yet to come up with his full price forecasts for the 2020 calendar year, we should point out that ‘very bullish’ in his terms is not looking at $5,000 gold or higher as are some of the more bullish commentators, but perhaps somewhere in the $1,600s unless something catastrophic happens globally, in which case anything is possible, but perhaps we wouldn’t want to contemplate this kind of scenario. He has promised an updated price forecast for gold early in the New Year.”
USAGOLD note: Murenbeeld’s analysis is always welcome. His forecasts usually fall on the conservative side of the ledger. Last year, as Williams points out, his predictions were right on – an average of $1390 (it looks like it will come in around $1391) and ending the year at $1500.
Gold prices look to post biggest annual rise in 9 years
“’Gold has seen considerable safe haven buying from investors concerned [over] low and negative yields in the bond market and fearing a possible downturn in equities,’ said George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors.”
USAGOLD note: It’s been a very good year, despite ending on a down note.
Repost from 12-17-2019
Analysts: Gold will hit $1700 by March
Money and Markets/JT Crowe/12-21-2019
“Wolfe Research analysts John Roque and Rob Ginsburg say gold enthusiasts should get ready for a big pop in prices, calling for as much as a 15% rise from current prices over the next few months.”
USAGOLD note: An aggressive forecast from Wolf Research’s Rocque and Ginsburg who “continue to believe that gold will make a new all-time high in this cycle,”
Kaplan: Macro stars are aligning for a major gold rally
“Kaplan said he believes the uncertainty in the macros will drive investors to seek out an asset that can be owned outright, is a proven hedge against the debasement of fiat, and is capable of producing returns. And because the world’s gold supply is limited, he thinks gold has nowhere to go but up. ‘The macros will determine whether gold stays within the $3,000 to $5,000 range, or potentially multiplies from there,’ he said.”
USAGOLD note: Checking-in with Thomas Kaplan (Electrum Group) and his latest assessment of gold market potential . . . . .
Repost from 12-16-2019
The world’s super-rich are hoarding physical gold
“But the firm also surfaces some really interesting data on how investors have expressed their desire to own gold. Which is that owning the physical metal seems to be the global elite’s preferred way to hedge against tail events.”
USAGOLD note: If you’re going to own it, own the real thing. . . .We referenced this article in yesterday’s DMR and repost it here for those who may have missed it.
Repost from 12-12-2019
Key trends to watch as we conclude 2019
GoldHub-World Gold Council/Juan Carlos Artigas/12-16-2019
“As we look ahead to 2020 we believe investors will face an increasing set of geopolitical concerns, while many pre-existing ones will likely be pushed back rather than being resolved. In addition, the very low level of interest rates worldwide will likely keep stock prices high and valuations at extreme levels. Within this context, we believe there are clear reasons for higher levels of safe-haven assets like gold.”
USAGOLD note: We alluded to this study in yesterday’s DMR and repost it here for those who may have missed it. The Director of Investment Research at the World Gold Council offers his take on the prospects for gold demand in 2020.
Chart courtesy of World Gold Council
Gold’s big bottom
“The smart money is already buying the beaten-down mining stocks, so gold and silver should be next to run and look to already be starting with a minimum target of $1,720 on gold, maybe even $1,900.”
USAGOLD note: Blink once. Blink twice. Did Harry Dent just go bullish on gold? We’ll call it a “definite maybe . . .” The forecast comes from a technical analyst he met in Australia recently.
Repost from 12-17-2019
Weak dollar policy will be gold’s catalyst for 2020
“Safe-haven demand will also likely serve to bolster gold’s long-term bull market going forward, but the primary catalyst for gold demand will likely revolve factors other than just global trade. A weakening dollar will only serve to increase the demand for gold as an inflation hedge, which is what typically drives the metal’s strongest rallies. Therefore, investors should expect that as the U.S. currency is pushed downward through policy intervention in 2020, gold’s bullish prospects will increase.”
USAGOLD note: Droke makes a well-reasoned case for gold next year. . . . .We referenced this column in this morning’s DMR and repost it here for those who might have missed it.
Repost from12-9-2019
Chart watcher says, ‘Don’t fall asleep on gold’ as it gears up for another run
MarketWatch/William Watts/12-5-2019
“Inflows into gold ETFs have moderated — a positive signal . . . “
USAGOLD note: This article explores the thinking on gold from Jeff DeGraaf (Renaissance Macro Research) – one of Wall Street’s ‘most widely followed chart watchers’ and a contrarian.
Repost from 12-9-2019
Seven-year cycles can be powerful and gold just started one
OPINION!
TechnicalTraders, LTD/Chris Vermuelen/12-5-2019
“Gold broke down from a bull market in 2012/2013 – nearly 7 years ago. Now, Gold has broken resistance near $1375 and is technically in a full-fledged Bull Market. The importance of this is the 7-year cycle and how the rotation in Gold, between the high near $1923 and the low near $1045 represent an $878 price range. The upside (expansion) rally in Gold may very well move in expanding Fibonacci price structures – just like it did in 2005 through 2012. If this is the case, then we may expect to see an ultimate peak price in Gold well above $3500.”
USAGOLD note: Super-bull Chris Vermuelen dives deep to tell why he thinks gold is about to lift off the launch pad. . . . .
Repost from 12-9-2019
Gold-silver ratio elevated again
“We still rate silver as having the potential to outperform gold in the medium to long term, but this is happening far slower than we anticipated earlier. Given its underperformance over the past few years when gold, too, was in the doldrums, silver had largely fallen out of favour with investors who have been mainly seduced away by the seemingly ever-rising equities markets, generally ignoring how vulnerable the latter appear to be if looked at from a historic perspective. The parallels with the 1929 equities mega crash do seem to be worrying. “
USAGOLD note: Williams reinforces the notion that silver has moved beyond being simply an industrial metal to one sought in the contemporary financial milieu as a safe-haven asset. It’s volatility, however, remains a key factor to be taken into consideration by those who seek to own it. In the past when silver finally moved, it did so in grand fashion rewarding the patient few who had the foresight to accumulate when the market was quiet – and the patience/wherewithal to ride out the volatile downsides.
Repost from 12-5-2019
Broad metals ripening to outshine in 2020 and next decade
BloombergIntelligence/MIke McGlone
“This gold recovery began with the first Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2015. At about the halfway mark of the 2011-15 decline, gold is simply retracing a bear market, for now. A new bull market will come when the dollar-denominated price exceeds $1,900 an ounce. About $1,400 is a good initial support.”
USAGOLD note: We referenced and linked McGlone’s report in yesterday’s DMR. We post it again today for those who might have missed it.
Repost from 12-5-2019
Political uncertainty to drive gold prices to $1,550 in 2020 – Murenbeeld and Co.
“Uncertainty is here to stay; we are seeing it everywhere and that is ultimately good for gold,’ she said. Because geopolitical turmoil threatens global economic growth, Schieven said that major central banks will be forced to keep interest rates low and continue to pump liquidity into financial markets.”
USAGOLD note: When it comes to gold, Murenbeeld & Co. is among the most respected analysts, though many will see as the call for a $1550 price in 2020 as conservative.
Repost from 12-5-2019
MacroVoices: Gold is not just going to be ‘an asset’ but ‘the asset to own’ in the 2020s
MacroVoices/Interview of Ronald-Peter Stoferle-Incrementum/August 2019
USAGOLD note: Stoferle, along with Mark J. Valek, publish the widely circulated and referenced In Gold We Trust annual report. In this interview, Stoferle says “It is crystal clear. We are in a gold bull market again.” The most important opinion expressed is that the start of something different, perhaps very special, occurred in the gold market over the past 30-days or so. Stoferle and his hosts at MacroVoices delve into just what that “something” might be. If you are looking for fundamental insights on gold’s price potential, this interview will get you where you want to be.
Re-post from 8-11-2019
Huge bets that gold could triple to $4000 trade in New York
“The gold options market saw $1.75 million in block trades betting the precious metal could almost triple in more than a year, surpassing the record. Around noon in New York, 5,000 lots for a gold option giving the holder the right to buy the precious metal at $4,000 an ounce in June 2021 changed hands. The bets were sold at $3.50 an ounce.”
USAGOLD note: Under what extraordinary circumstances would gold go to $4000 by June of 2021? Difficult to imagine what it would take in the way of market and economic turbulence . . . . . .
Repost from 11-29-2019
Silver sideways rest of 2019, but 2020 could be ‘a completely different story’
“Silver is a highly speculative precious metal. Over the past four decades, the price climbed to the $50 per ounce level twice, once in 1980 and again in 2011. A continuation in the bull market in gold would likely cause a herd of buyers to flock to the silver market. At around the $17 per ounce level at the end of last week, the silver market was laying the in reeds and waiting for the next event or move in gold that will propel the price higher.”
USAGOLD note: We spend so much time on gold that we sometimes forget its volatile trading companion. Here Andrew Hecht lays out the case for silver in 2020.
Repost from 11-27-2019
Slumbering gold bulls are waking up again
“Gold stole the investment spotlight from other assets for most of 2019 as bullish sentiment toward the metal reached a crescendo earlier this fall. A combination of recession fears and uncertainty surrounding the global trade outlook bolstered gold demand to a level not seen since before its 2011 price peak.”
USAGOLD note: Here’s the latest from market analyst Clif Droke who sees good things ahead for the yellow metal. . . . .
Repost from 11-26-2019
Goldman maintains bullish target for gold
“Goldman maintained its bullish target of $1,600 per ounce for gold, reasoning that factors including heightened political uncertainty and an only modest acceleration in growth supported investment demand.”
USAGOLD note: This article also discusses Goldman’s outlook for the commodity index, oil and industrial metals – all bullish.
Repost from 11-26-2019
Ongoing consolidation in gold is healthy – UBS
“Gold’s ongoing consolidation between the 100- and 50-day moving averages is healthy, as it will ease some of the persistent concerns on positioning and create room for further gains, according to UBS analysts.”
USAGOLD note: UBS is on the $1600 gold bandwagon. In fact, the Swiss banking concern thinks it could happen over the next three months.
Repost from 11-26-2019
Is another sharp PM-sector down-leg imminent?
GoldEagle/Clive Maund/11-22-2019
OPINION
“The quite sharp drop early this month was on heavy volume, and the feeble rally of the past week or so looks like a countertrend rally—a bear flag—that will lead to another sharp down-leg very soon. This will break gold out of the channel shown and take the price to our downside objective in the $1,380–$1400 area.”
USAGOLD note: Clive’s gotten it right thus far in this downside break. He says this healthy correction “would clean out the excess spec longs and set up gold for another major run.” He also called gold’s move to the upside that preceded the correction we are now experiencing. If he’s right, it could present an excellent buying opportunity for the longer-term investor.
The case for a silver price rally
“Yes, you read that right. Despite all the bearish developments that we described in the previous analyses, and despite myriads of bearish factors that remain in place for the following months, it seems that the white metal is about to rally.”
USAGOLD note: Radomski goes on to cite technical indicators supporting his thesis that silver is about to move higher.
Repost from 11-19-2019
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