James Grant: Nobody knows anything
SprottMedia/Albert Lu interview of James Grant (Interest Rate Observer)
“I’m fully aware that the provocation is that of, seemingly, an act of God or at least a viral mutation or something so we ought not to begrudge the Fed its humane impulses. But how do you not mobilize every single possible tool in your kit or bomb in your arsenal next time there’s a downturn in anything? I think this introduces the possibility of everything that gold bugs have been praying for. Are we going to talk about gold? I can’t wait.”
USAGOLD note: Grantian wisdom at its best ……With his sense of humor (as you can tell from the above) well in place.
Repost from 3-28-2020
Why advisers should line their portfolios with gold
“Speaking at a Schroders breakfast briefing yesterday (January 22), Janet Mui, global economist at Cazenove Capital, said she thought investing in gold was the best way for advisers and fund managers to hedge the risks in their portfolios. She said: ‘Gold has the feature of portfolio hedging and diversification. Gold should be in your portfolio.’”
USAGOLD note: More and more, it is becoming a mainstay in the financial business that the wise investor and/or financial advisor embrace gold as a means to capital preservation in a rapidly changing and increasingly dangerous investment climate. In Cazenove’s case, it is emphasizing gold as a hedge against geopolitical turbulence.
Related, please see:
Precious metals for financial planners and advisors
We will work with you to offer your clients a strong, service-based
presence in the gold coin and bullion market
Repost from 1-24-2020
World’s ultra wealthy go for gold
Fred Hickey/Twitter feed
“I’d be mighty uncomfortable right now with gold inching ever closer to a major breakout if I was one of those many wise guys who’d sold out their long gold futures positions, sold GDX, & bought DUST in anticipation of a seasonal sell-off that hasn’t occurred. A perfect environment for gold – now breaking out & on its way to new highs, leaving lots of influential gold traders (long-term bulls) on the sidelines & now having to chase gold higher. Only 1 of half-dozen traders (with lots of followers) has thrown in the (bear) towel (last nite) First the smart money guys bought gold (Tudor-Jones, Druckenmiller, Gundlach, Dalio, Zell etc. Now mainstream money’s coming in (see recent Reuters story about 9 major wealth advising firms recommending as much as 10% gold allocations). Public will follow. 30 tons into GLD last 2 days.”
USAGOLD note: There was a time when gold was considered a marginal choice on Wall Street. Over the past several years, it has become increasingly mainstream with a good many fund managers and investment advisors consistently touting it as a necessary inclusion in the well-balanced investment portfolio. Below is a link to the Reuters article Hickey cites above:
World’s ultra-wealthy go for gold amid stimulus bonanza/Reuters/6-18-2020
Repost from 7-2-2020
This (completely reasonable) change in investor behavior would send gold to the moon
John Rubino/Dollar Collapse
“Two points about Mobius’ suggestion that most portfolios should be 10% allocated to gold: First, the idea of replacing dollar cash with a historically better-performing store of wealth seems like a no-brainer in a world of soaring fiat currency debt and plunging interest rates. Second and vastly more interesting, the current allocation to gold in the financial world is about 1% of total investable capital, so moving from here to 10% would produce spectacular price gains for gold.”
Image courtesy of Visual Capitalist/Jeff Desjardins
Repost from 7-11-2019
Forecasting in an age of uncertainty
“Over 40 years the authors have watched the bright optimism of a new, rigorous approach to economics — which they shared — dissolve into the failures of prediction, [former Bank of England governor Mervyn King and former Financial Times columnist John Kay] write, arguing that the modern community of economists and policymakers needs to accept radical uncertainty and rethink its models.”
USAGOLD note: And radical uncertainty ought to be a psychological underpinning for any rational, modern day investment portfolio. As Nicholas Taleb of black swan fame once said: It is just as important to prepare for what we cannot foresee as for what we can. One short cut to achieving that goal, in our view, is to own gold – and enough of it to make a difference.
“Having been mugged too often by reality, forecasters now express less confidence about our abilities to look beyond the immediate horizon. We will forever need to reach beyond our equations to apply economic judgment. Forecasters may never approach the fantasy success of the Oracle of Delphi or Nostradamus, but we can surely improve on the discouraging performance of the past. – Alan Greenspan, The Map and the Territory, 2013
Repost from 3-24-2020
Gold: The never normal
Maisson Placements Canada/John Ing
“Without confidence in the dollar, the world has no valid reserve currency. Gold is an alternative to the dollar. As for the pandemic, gold is a perfect hedge. It is risky either way. If the virus persists or the inevitable ‘deadly second wave’ occurs, gold will rise on the effects. If a vaccine is found, gold will rise on the hangover of the cure.”
USAGOLD note: We’ve had the “new normal,” the “new-new normal” and the “new abnormal” (in recent weeks). Now John Ing warns of a debt-ridden future that is “never normal.”
Repost from 5-18-2020
Gold has had a very good year, and it’s only half over
SentimenTrader/Jason Goepfert/6-30-2020
Gold Hedger Positions
Gold = Gold hedger positions (Last: -287292)
Red = Gold hedger net as % of Open Interest (Last: -54)
SentimenTrader commentary:
Tech isn’t the only asset having a good half-year – gold is, too.
Through about the half-way point of 2020, gold has returned more than 16% and is at its highs for the year. Meanwhile, it suffered only a small drawdown from where it closed 2019. Momentum is a powerful thing, and when gold had good years, it tended to keep going. Over the next few months, gold tended to keep rallying, with only 4 out of 18 years showing a substantial decline in the months ahead.
One concern is that ‘smart money’ hedgers are betting against the metal, holding more than 50% of open interest net short, which means that speculators are heavily long. This has been an issue in recent years, but not so much historically.
The fact that gold is still hitting new highs despite signs of high optimism earlier this year is a good sign. If gold can continue to hold ground despite high optimism, then it suggests a long-term positive market environment much like the mid-2000s. There are some minor shorter-term negatives; if those can calm down in the weeks ahead, then it should present a better risk/reward for the metal heading into the late summer.”
USAGOLD note: Always appreciate the deeper analysis Goepfert offers on a range of investments – including gold.
Gold posts biggest quarterly gain since 2016 on virus woes
Bloomberg/Ranjeetha Pakiam/6-30-2020
“Bullion has been rising due to a resurgence in virus infections, with new hot spots emerging and the World Health Organization warning that the worst of the pandemic is still to come because of a lack of global solidarity. More U.S. areas took steps to scale back reopenings, while Australia’s Victoria is imposing a four-week lockdown in some parts of the metropolis of Melbourne in an attempt to contain a spike in cases.”
USAGOLD note: At just over 30%, the 2020 second quarter’s gain from the same quarter one year ago is actually the best since 2011, according to data generated at the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s web site.
Gold Annual Returns
(Change from one year ago same quarter)
Sources: ICE Benchmark Administration, St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED]
Why gold will hit a record high in the second half of 2020
Zero Hedge/Eddie van der Walt/6-25-2020
“A mix of slow growth, easy money and black swans can propel gold to record highs in the second half of 2020. Lingering fears about lockdowns and scarring to the real economy should keep haven demand strong, but the metal could also rally in a risk-on environment, as the 2008 play book showed. Comfortably the best-performing major asset in the past year, gold soared by a quarter. That put it within levels that Markets Live foresaw at the end of 2019. With a global recession arriving sooner and cutting deeper than expected, $2,000/oz is the next target.”
USAGOLD note: Van der Walt is a macro commentator at Bloomberg and one of a good many Wall Street analysts who see gold at the $2000 mark by the end of the year.
Gold nears breakout as Goldman upgrades precious metals on ‘debasement fears’
ZeroHedge/Tyler Durden
“In 2020, the virus has led to unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. It remains unclear how much more stimulus will be deployed by DM governments, how the resulting deficits will translate into higher taxes down the road, and how long monetary policy will remain ultra-loose. Finally, it is unclear whether the crisis leads to second round shocks, such as social unrest, political volatility, or rising international tensions. In such an environment, demand for defensive assets (gold in particular) will continue to expand, in our view.”
USAGOLD note: We referenced this Goldman study on Monday. Zero Hedge quotes from the report in detail at the link above. In short Goldman upgraded its twelve month forecast on gold to $2000 and $22 on silver.
Repost from 6-23-2020
Short and Sweet
TECH ANALYST
Gold could go to $1800 to $2200 in the long run
A number of technical analysts have reverted to a more bearish forecast over the past few weeks with the $1250 area once again being touted as the downside support area. Many of those same technical analysts, though, have a significantly more positive outlook for the longer term. Among that group is Gary Wagner of the Wagner Financial Group who sees $1267 or even $1247 as possibilities in the short run, but also forecasts the possibility of $1800 to $2200 in the longer run. “Our research,” he explains in an article published recently at the Singapore Bullion Market Association website, “suggests that gold is in the final phase of a major long-term impulse cycle. This model also provides a look back at the final major bullish wave that could be traced back to end of 2015, following a correction to $1,040. This corrective fourth wave developed from the all-time high at $1,900 in 2011. The model suggests that gold could re-test the record highs that, if taken out, could see an extensive surge to between $1800 and $2200 per troy ounce.”
Caveat: At USAGOLD, it bears repeating, we have always advocated the ownership of both gold and silver coins and bullion for long-term asset preservation purposes rather than speculative gain. Though we pass along various projections, we do so with the caveat that anything can happen. The analyst who forecasts downside today can quickly change his or her outlook to the upside tomorrow – or vice versa. The long term charts for gold and silver, though, reveal a consistent upward trend that has served investors well in the period since 1971 when the global monetary system departed the gold standard and entered the fiat money era.
Repost from April 2019
(Update 5/15/2020) – So far so good on Gary Wagner’s forecast. We decided to leave the post as is so that you could see how much the outlook can change over the course of a single year. One wonders, too, what Wagner would forecast now given recent events and their impact technically on the gold chart.
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1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already have.
2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.
3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.
4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.
5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.
6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!
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A rational case for $7000 gold
Denver Gold Forum/Charlie Morris-Atlantic House/4-20-2020
This year, speakers at the annual Denver Gold Forum are making their presentations electronically. We will post a number of those presentations as DGF makes them available.
USAGOLD note: Atlantic House’s Charlie Morris sees gold going to $7,345. per ounce by 2030 on a confluence of factors with real rates on dollar-based yield instruments and rising inflation the most important. He says the rest of the decade will be more like the inflationary 1970s than the disinflationary early 2000s.
Repost from 4-22-2020
Aden Sisters: Gold a safe bet during ‘financial abuse of power’
INN Gold Investing News/Georgia Williams
“Describing the yellow metal as a hedge in times of uncertainty, Pamela Aden recapped the market volatility of the last five months, saying it’s time for people to protect their savings and investments. ‘A perfect storm is taking place … during an election year that’s crazed with a health pandemic, economic collapse, racial conflict, millions unemployed, anger, protests all linked together,’ she said.”
USAGOLD note: The Aden Sisters’ straight-shooting, cut-to-the-chase candor is always appreciated.
Repost from 6-21-2020
Goldman hikes 12-month gold price forecast to $2,000/oz
“’Policy uncertainty aside, we believe that debasement fears remain the key driver of gold prices in a post-crisis environment such as this,’ analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. A weaker dollar will boost the purchasing power of major gold consumers across emerging markets along with easing of lockdowns, the bank added.”
USAGOLD note: We referenced this article in this morning’s DMR – a significant upgrade from Goldman Sachs on gold’s prospects over the next 12 months.
Repost from 6-19-2020
Will silver reach $20 in 2020?
“As we can see in the chart of seasonality for silver, we’re heading into one of the most attractive times to be buying silver, with the metal typically bottoming in mid-June to early July going back over fifty years. If we look at the above charts, we can see that silver usually gains over 6% between now and the end of Q3, a respectable performance for just over a 3-month hold period. Despite this attractive timing window to be buying pullbacks in silver, we didn’t see any sign of this last week from small speculators, with bullish positioning remaining at relatively subdued levels.”
USAGOLD note: With everything else that is going on in the economy and financial markets, It is easy to overlook the fact that we are heading into the summer doldrums for the precious metals – a time historically when demand sags, prices typically stay in a range, and dip-buyers take whatever opportunities might present themselves. Then again, as unpredictable as markets have become, anything could happen – including a summer rally in precious metals prices.
Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs.com
Repost from 6-16-2020
Gold at $1900 is just a matter of time: Bloomberg Intelligence’s McGlone
“Mike McGlone, Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, on why gold is ripe to transition to $1800 an ounce. Hosted by Vonnie Quinn and Paul Sweeney.”
USAGOLD note: Worth a listen …… Bloomberg’s resident gold bull. Says one host, “I’m just looking at this chart – the year chart for gold – it just looks extraordinary.”
Gold pushes higher in Asia overnight, Goldman upgrades forecast to $2000 per ounce from $1800
(USAGOLD – 6/19/2020) – Gold pushed higher during Asian trading hours in what appears to be a response to trade talks breaking down once again between the United States and China. It then picked up some momentum on the open in the United States and is now trading at $1737 – up $13 on the day. Silver is up 33¢ at $17.74. Goldman Sachs yesterday raised its 12-month price forecast to $2000 from $1800 previously, according to a Reuters report, saying it expected gold’s rally to continue “due to currency debasement fears and economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus crisis.”
The top-of-the-list concerns driving investor interest in gold remain the same – inflation, deflation, the success (or lack of success) of aggressive central bank policies, etc. Those who fear policymakers’ efforts will fall short worry about an outcome like the 1930s Great Depression. Those who think the money printing will revive moribund economies worry it will also create runaway inflation. Both camps have turned to gold for safe-haven purposes and, over the past few months, prices have pushed steadily higher as a result. As we close out a subdued week for precious metals, gold is up 27.5% over the past 12 months and silver is up 16.2%.
Chart of the Day
Sources: Daniel J. Lewis, St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED]
Chart note 1: As you can see, the drop since early March in the Weekly Economic Index is worse than the one during the 2008 financial crisis. The Index was developed by Daniel Lewis, economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Karel Mertens, senior economic policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and James Stock, Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University, so it is highly credentialed. If its current readings go unchanged through the end of the quarter, it would portend a roughly 11% drop in GDP from 2019.
Chart note 2: “The WEI,” says the St. Louis Fed, “is an index of real economic activity using timely and relevant high-frequency data. It represents the common component of ten different daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. The WEI is scaled to the four-quarter GDP growth rate; for example, if the WEI reads -2 percent and the current level of the WEI persists for an entire quarter, one would expect, on average, GDP that quarter to be 2 percent lower than a year previously.”
Golden Bulls: Visualizing the Price of Gold from 1915-2020
Graphic image courtesy of Visual Capitalist
USAGOLD note: Stunning visualization of gold’s secular bull markets. Worth a visit.
Repost from 6-10-2020
The cracks in the financial system are getting bigger … Here’s what it could mean for gold
International Man/Interview of Frank Giustra
“I’ve never made a prediction on the gold price. I will always say it’s going higher if I believe it’s going higher. I think that this time, it is going a lot higher, and I will say that much. Where it goes is anybody’s guess. But I’ll tell you one thing—and I’ve been saying this for the last 12 months. This phase of the gold bull market—which started last year—is the third and final wave of the bull market that started in 2001, and this one’s going to be a tsunami. This time, gold will really break out and go to a number that most investors can’t begin to imagine.”
USAGOLD note: If you read and listen to people like Ray Dalio, Jim Rogers, Frank Giustra and other financial heavyweights, a breakdown in the fiat money system is likely to accompany a breakout that ‘most investors can’t begin to imagine.’
Repost from 6-9-2020
What would you put in a 100-year portfolio?
“The optimal portfolio, since 1929, included risk weighted combinations of Domestic Equity (24%), Fixed Income (18%), Active Long Volatility (21%), Trend Following Commodities (18%), and Physical Gold (19%). This allocation is highly unorthodox compared to a Traditional Pension Portfolio dominated by equity Linked Assets (73%) and Fixed Income (21%).”
USAGOLD note: “On a long enough timeline every strategy sucks,” quips RCM Alternatives on Artemis’ approach to the 100-year portfolio. That explains the 19% portfolio commitment to physical gold, the portfolio inclusion for all seasons.
Repost from 2-24-2020
_____________________________________________________
Rainy day investment
“In an economy buffeted by the ups and downs of farming and fishing, the people [of India] are used to buying gold after bumper harvests or fishing seasons and selling it after lean ones.” –– Vivek Kaul, Live Mint
Dr. MoneyWise says: “It’s all very simple. Own gold for a rainy day. Use it if and when that day arrives.”
Up-to-the-minute gold market news, opinion and analysis as it happens.
We invite to become a regular here at our daily Top Gold News and Opinion page
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Former COMEX board member: Bullion banks covering short gold derivative positions ……
…… Time to buy gold
“Now that the bullion banks are covering their decades-old short gold derivatives positions, it’s time to buy gold. If the banks don’t want to be short, it’s time to go long. The recent blowout of the COMEX April 2020 futures contract price above the London spot price is evidence of this action and a glaring indication of significant adjustments being made by the major gold market participants.
Banks are closing out their short gold positions after all these years because of the present world health/financial crisis and the steps being taken to salvage the world’s economies. Frank Holmes’ recent article, ‘Excess Money Supply Has Been Like Miracle-Gro for Gold,’ provides context.
The present circumstances have also resulted in short-term supply chain issues affecting the banks’ ability to maintain their long London positions. And, more significantly, concerns about counter-party risk are leading banks to start reducing some of their $600 Trillion derivatives exposure.
All during my 20+ years trading gold futures on the floor of the COMEX the bullion banks were major sellers of the nearby spread at rollover. This was done to ‘roll’ their huge short positions out to the next active futures month. The banks held these COMEX shorts against their long positions (physical, forwards, etc.) that they held in London, thereby hedging their price risk. So the banks typically maintain a significant short COMEX/long London position.”
[More at the link above]
Repost from 4-28-2020
Gold gives back some of yesterday’s gains, ANZ Bank sees $1900 by end of year
(USAGOLD – 6/11/2020) – Gold is giving back some of yesterday’s strong gains in what appears to be a bout of profit-taking. The yellow metal is down $8 at $1732. Silver is down17¢ at $17.99 – the stronger of the two metals over the past two days. Yesterday’s sharp move to the upside began immediately after the Fed announced it would keep rates near the zero level and continue funding bond purchases. It was helped along by reports of a jump in coronavirus infections in some states coming out of lockdowns.
ANZ, the Australian bank, believes gold will climb to $1900 an ounce by the end of the year. “We remain bullish over the medium term,” says the bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes and commodity strategist Soni Kumari in an Investing.com column. “The macro backdrop is challenging, despite market confidence in the trend towards normalized growth. The expansion of central banks’ balance sheets shows no sign of abating, while geopolitical tensions escalate. We think those investors who continue to raise their allocation to precious metals are sitting on a gold mine.”
Chart of the Day
Chart courtesy of Scott R. Baker and the St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED]
Chart note: The St. Louis Fed’s Uncertainty Index, now at all-time highs, is based on newspaper coverage frequency. “Our US index,” says the authors, spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, policy uncertainty innovations foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States …”
World Silver Survey 2020
The Silver Institute/Metals Focus
“Global silver investment jumped 12 percent to 186.1 million ounces (Moz), making it the largest annual growth since 2015. Notable gains in Europe (+25 percent), the US (+9 percent) and India (+5 percent) led to the increase. Institutional investment fared even better than retail demand. Last year, exchange-traded product (ETP) holdings stood at 728.9 Moz at year-end, up by 13%, achieving the largest annual rise since 2010.”
USAGOLD note: Is silver angling for a major turnaround? The Silver Institute offers some hopeful signs as indicated in the snippet above. The link above takes you to the full 86-page report.
Repost from 4-22-2020
The rational case for $7000 gold by 2030
“It surprises many professional investors that gold has been the leading major asset class in the 21st century. It has beaten the US treasuries, US equities, developed market equities and emerging markets, even after accounting for dividends. $100 invested at the turn of the century has turned into $591.”
USAGOLD note: Charlie Morris makes a case similar to the one we made several months ago under the banner Gold’s Century – While stocks dominated headlines gold quietly performed. Morris concentrates on addressing the question “Why” and offers an appealing forecast while the USAGOLD report told “How” and concentrated on gold’s performance since the turn of the new century featuring the chart posted below.
“For twelve consecutive years, gold was up every single year whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears; strong dollar, weak dollar; political stability, political instability. It didn’t matter – strong oil, weak oil. . . Gold went up for twelve years. . . When gold embarks upon its next move, I believe that you will see that long wave take gold relatively quickly, but it will be measured in years, up to a $3000 to $5000 target that I believe is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” –– Thomas Kaplan, Electrum Group (Bloomberg’s Peer to Peer Conversations with David Rubinstein)
Repost from 6-1-2020
Unpleasant arithmetic for gold bugs
Money & Banking/Stephen Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholz
“With the smallest balance sheet we can imagine, our best guess is that the Fed initially would have to triple its gold holdings, driving the price of gold up by two thirds (to about $2,600 per ounce). Then, to maintain the gold standard, the Fed would still need to purchase one-third of world gold production each year. Without gold holdings over and above this minimum, the Fed would not be able to lend at all, much less without limit as it can under a pure fiat money standard.”
USAGOLD note: It is difficult to understand how the findings of professors Cecchetti and Stoenholz are ‘unpleasant arithmetic for gold bugs’. More accurately their findings might be called unpleasant arithmetic for the global monetary system. In their anxiety to undermine the argument for a gold standard, the authors unwittingly make a very strong case for gold’s deep undervaluation once the level of federal debt rattling around the global economy (including what’s held at the Federal Reserve) is taken into consideration. As such, many gold bugs, in our view, will take much pleasure from their conclusions, a hint of which is presented in the snippet above.
Repost 2-24-2020
The importance of fully audited, allocated gold: the case of ABN AMRO
TechBullion/Angela Scott-Briggs
“The ABN AMRO bank has abruptly closed all weight accounts for platinum, gold and silver bullion, leaving 2000 stunned precious metals investors with little more than thin air, where their physical gold bullion, silver bullion and platinum investment once was. The regrettable case of the Dutch bank reaffirms the absolute necessity of fully audited, allocated gold and silver to ensure verified bullion in physical gold or silver investment.”
USAGOLD note 1: The ABN Amro situation illustrates with a high degree of clarity why it is important to own metal in hand rather than in some paperized version of gold ownership subject to the whim of the institution managing the account. In this particular case, we cannot help but note that ABN Amro’s closure of paper gold fund comes at a time when bullion is in short supply and owners of the fund are likely to have a stronger than average desire to take delivery of the position. Investors of the fund were forced to sell their positions at a time when it is very difficult to acquire a replacement in the open market. A bird in hand, as the old saying goes, is worth two in the bush.
USAGOLD note 2: That said, USAGOLD does offer fully allocated precious metals accounts where you can park gold and silver coins and bullion and take delivery whenever you wish – an important difference when compared to unallocated, non-delivery ETF accounts to which you can subscribe through your favorite stockbroker. ETFs are a price bet. Physical gold and silver to which you have full access are a true safe haven and long-term store of value.
Repost from 4-17-2020
In gold we trust
Incrementum/Ronald Peter Stoeferle and Mark J. Valek/May 2020
“These developments have in some cases already built up over years and decades, but in the current crisis the situation is becoming exorbitantly worse. As unpleasant as the dynamics in general are, the conditions for gold could not be better, given massively overindebted economies, which as a last resort use the devaluation of their currencies to finance their deficits. For these and a number of other reasons, we take a broad view and foresee ‘The Dawning of a Golden Decade.'”
USAGOLD note: Stoeferle and Valek make the case for gold in this 93-page summary of the full version. This report is greatly anticipated annually for its depth and perceptions. “The question is not whether the gold price will reach new all-time highs,” it advises, “but how high these will be. We are convinced that gold will prove to be a profitable investment over the course of this decade and will provide stability and security in any portfolio. … By a conservative calibration, our proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of USD 4,800 at the end of this decade. If money supply growth develops in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price around USD 8,900 is realistic by 2030.” This comprehensive and fascinating report is worth the time spent on it: Available at the link above.
Safety and expected returns attract German investors to gold
World Gold Council/Louise Street/5-29-2020
“When investors in Germany buy gold, they tend to do so with the intention of protecting their wealth, while also keeping one eye on making good long-term returns. That was a finding from our 2019 survey of over 2,000 German retail investors, as part of a larger global survey of more than 12,000 investors across six markets. The research revealed that almost half of German retail investors buying gold bars and coins felt that the main role of their gold investment was to protect their wealth, with around one third focusing on good long-term returns (in excess of inflation).”
USAGOLD note: Not a far cry from how most American investors view gold ……
Now may be the best time for you to buy gold
“This time around, the coronavirus is causing interruption on an unprecedented scale, including the supply of physical gold. Three of Europe’s biggest gold refineries are based in the Swiss canton of Ticino. On March 24, cantonal authorities ordered all three refineries to close. Although they’ve been allowed to reopen since April 5, they’re still only operating at around 50% of their normal capacity, meaning there’s a squeeze on the supply of physical gold.”
USAGOLD note: With all the analysis published on gold ownership, we sometimes lose sight of simple availability of the metal as a fundamental factor driving market sentiment. We saw what happened in late April when a delivery squeeze developed relative to the effects of the coronavirus. End of May another delivery squeeze could develop when the heavy-volume June contract comes up for delivery.
Image courtesy of Visual Capitalist
Repost from 5-26-2020
Here’s why the largest U.S. bank is bullish on gold prices
inVEZZ/Michael Harris/5-21-2020
“Following the month when the largest monetary and fiscal packages in history were unveiled, the U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co believes there’s only one winner going forward, and that’s gold prices.”
USAGOLD note: The only winner? Though we do believe that gold should be purchased as a hedge under the current onslaught of financial market uncertainty, we do not think it will be the only asset that rises to the occasion. We do, however, think it might be the most reliable option on the table – along with silver.
‘Gold will be explosive’ – Frank Giustra
KitcoNews/Daniela Cambone/Video interview of Frank Giustra
“‘I think we’re in the third and final phase of the gold market that’s started in 2001, and this will be the most explosive phase for gold,’ Giustra told Kitco News.”
USAGOLD note: This is one of the better interviews we have seen in awhile on the long-term merits of gold ownership. Giustra explains how he has structured his own gold portfolio.
Repost from 9-16-2019
Could gold prices reach $9,000?
“In the next five to ten years, gold prices could climb to $8,000 to $9,000, with silver following suit in this bull-run, due to the similar macroeconomic environment that we currently share with that of the 1970’s, when gold prices climbed several hundred percentage points, [Midas Touch Consulting’s Florian] Grummes noted.”
USAGOLD note: Implausible but not impossible, Florian Grummes bases his forecast on gold’s performance during the late 1970s went it rose nearly nine times from $100 to $890. Prior to the 1970s, the U.S. Treasury kept the price of gold at the $35 benchmark by selling reserves of the metal. We do not have that level of artificiality in the pricing today so we would expect the reaction to be more restrained. However …… today’s unrestricted money printing, on a scale much greater than what occurred before the 1970s run-up, might be an equally primal force in future pricing and just as influential.
Repost from 5-18-2020
Gold is Paul Tudor Jones’ favorite trade for the next 12-24 months
Bloomberg/Video Interview with Vonnie Quinn/6-12-2019
“Paul Tudor Jones, founder at Tudor Investment Corporation, explains why he views gold as the best trade over the next year to two years.”
USAGOLD note: “Gold,” he says, “has everything going for it.” A very interesting interview, Tudor Jones joins a long list of billionaires who have come out in recent weeks advocating gold ownership.
Repost from 6-13-2019
Kiyosaki says gold $3000 in one year, silver $40 in five years
therealkiyosaki/Robert Kiyosaki/5-16-2020
“ECONOMY dying. FED incompetent. Next BAILOUT trillions in pensions. HOPE fading. Bought more gold silver Bitcoin. GOLD @$1700. Predict $3000 in 1 year. Silver @ $17. Predict $40 in 5 years. Bitcoin @$9800. Predict $75000 in 3 years. PRAY for the BEST-PREPARE for the WORST. …”
“Writer Nassim Taleb describes three people in the world FRAGILE ANTI FRAGILE and ROBUST. Crisis is crushing Fragile people. Robust will not change. ANTI FRAGILE people are like YOU, people who will emerge from this FAKE PANDEMIC stronger smarter & richer.”
USAGOLD note: Kiyosaki is the widely-followed author of Rich Dad Poor Dad. Think he’s out on a limb with Bitcoin … but do NOT see his gold and silver predictions wildly out of line. Kiyosaki is a long-time advocate of gold and silver ownership as an anti-fragile solution to black swan crises.
Buy gold to shield your portfolio from danger and uncertainty
“The economic turmoil; ongoing trade wars and other geopolitical uncertainties; the promised money-printing and looming inflation; and risky stock and debt markets: all the stars seemed aligned for gold. Since then the price has slid a little. So what next?”
USAGOLD note: With that Dominic Frisby launches into an entertaining look at the forces at work in the gold market today that newcomers might find helpful. He asks a lot of questions and leaves a good many unanswered. How you answer those questions will determine whether or not you will become a gold owner.
Repost from 5-11-2020
Gold is sleeping at the $1700 level – not for long
Seeking Alpha/Andrew Hecht
“Bull and bear markets rarely move in straight lines. When it comes to gold in US dollar terms, the bull roared from the turn of this century through 2011. Gold consolidated above the $1040 level from 2011 through June 2019, when the next leg to the upside got underway. Last week the price of the precious metal corrected below the $1700 per ounce level, which is likely another in a long series of buying opportunities. I believe that gold is heading above the $2000 per ounce level and that $3000 or higher is not out of the question.”
USAGOLD note: We referenced this report in yesterday morning’s DMR and repost it here for those who may have missed it. There is an old saying among gold advocates and owners: The best time to buy the metal is when everything is quiet.
Repost from 5-14-2020
Gold price exceeding $2000/oz would not surprise me – Dushnisky
CreamerMedia’s Mining Weekly/Martin Creamer
“’Regarding the gold price reaching $2 000/z, do I think it could reach $2 000/oz? Yes, I certainly do, and I think that given quantitative easing we’re seeing, the likelihood of interest rates being lower for longer and all of those factors coming together, I think there’s every chance that the gold price could exceed $2 000/oz. That would not come as a surprise to me at all,’ he elaborated.”
USAGOLD note: The CEO for AngloGold, Kelvin Dushniskey, joins the “$2000/Troy Ounce Club” …… Also, discusses the mining company’s prospects at the link.
Repost from 5-14-2020
The 10-year gold bull market starts now
“Well as counter-intuitive as it may sound, people have to hate the market that’s about to take off. Because the more non-believers there are today, the more potential buyers there are who can eventually jump back into the market. We need buyers on the sidelines because for a bull market to be sustained for years at a time, you have to have buyers steadily coming back in. That’s exactly what we have in the gold market right now.”
Repost from 11-6-2018
USAGOLD note (5/18/2020) – On 11-6-2018, gold closed at $1227.82.
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