Author Archives: USAGOLD

Gold cracks $1300 barrier, trading at $1305; silver cracks $17 barrier at $17.04

Rally brightens year-end for precious metals holders.  Onward to January. . . .and 2018!

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Star over gold market shines brightly as we near year-end

LATE REPORT

Gold closed up today for the fourth straight trading session at $1286.87 (+$4.12). Silver closed at $16.67 (+16¢).  In our last report before the holidays, we included this reference:

“In the December issue of News & Views, we pointed up the ghosts of Decembers past.  “In each of those years (2013 through 2016) December began poorly,” we wrote, “but appropriately by Christmas-time things began to look brighter. By the end of January in the following year, the star over the gold market shone still more brightly. . . ”  As of today, gold is up $23.43 from its December 11th low of $1241.90.  Silver is up 47¢ from its December 11 low of $15.69. It’s just five days ’til Christmas. . . . . .”

On that day (12/20/17) gold was trading in the vicinity of $1265 per ounce and silver was at $16.16.  So as the tally stands today, gold is up a robust $45 from the December 11th low and silver is up nearly $1.00. All in all, it’s been quite a seven-day run, Christmas-time has been made considerably brighter, and we go into the end of the year on an optimistic note.  Come January, we shall see if the star over the gold market will shine even more brightly, as it has the last two years.

Quote of the Day
“The very strong up-move of gold and silver in 2018 will take the investment world by surprise. Investors must pay heed and not be left behind.” – Egon von Greyerz, Matterhorn Asset Management, AG

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Gold, silver up solidly from December lows

LATE REPORT

Gold continued its push higher today finishing up $3.87 at $1265.33.  Silver finished up 6¢ at $16.16.  In the December issue of News & Views, we pointed up the ghosts of Decembers past.  “In each of those years (2013 through 2016) December began poorly,” we wrote, “but appropriately by Christmas-time things began to look brighter. By the end of January in the following year, the star over the gold market shone still more brightly. . . ”  As of today, gold is up $23.43 from its December 11th low of $1241.90.  Silver is up 47¢ from its December 11 low of $15.69. It’s just five days ’til Christmas. . . . . .

Quote of the Day
“The current combination of monetary debasement, populism and social unrest is neither a new phenomenon nor a coincidence. The late Roman empire shaved silver coins as it disintegrated; Henry VIII replaced silver coins with copper to pay for wars against France and Scotland; the British empire allowed double-digit inflation to erode bondholders’ wealth following the War of Independence; the Weimar Republic precipitated an inflation spiral. Comparing these examples to QE may sound extreme. Yet the biggest debasement in history may be the one we are experiencing now under the form of a $20tn central bank experiment, which is de facto depreciating money by boosting the price of all assets it can buy.” – Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments


Commonality is probably something you would not expect to find as an attribute of a brokerage firm, but when it comes to gold it is an important one. Having a similar world view goes a long way in establishing the common ground essential to a good working relationship. For over 40 years we have resolutely advocated owning gold for asset preservation purposes. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find USAGOLD a kindred spirit.

If the time has come for you to begin or extend your gold and silver ownership plans – if you are raising the red flag – we invite you contact us and find out why thousands have chosen us as their gold firm.

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Rocket ride higher today

LATE REPORT

Gold accelerated higher today finishing up $6.91 at $1262.08.  Silver also climbed higher up 16¢ and back over the $16 level at $16.12.  Over the past several months, the waterfall drops have been balanced with rocket ship recoveries – the action over the past few days being another example of the rocket ride half of the equation.

One impetus for gold’s good showing today is something that was largely overlooked.  In an article headlined “Japan Tiptoes out of Radical Experiment in Monetary Policy,” the Wall Street Journal reported this morning that “Japan’s central bank has been the world’s poster child for radical monetary easing. Next year, its stance is poised to change.”  The Bank of Japan, says the Journal, “is likely to raise one or more of its key interest-rate targets in 2018.” Such a move would likely boost the yen against the dollar, something that might be enough to tip the scales in gold’s favor if  becomes a mainstay in 2018. Over the past several months,  gold and the yen have demonstrated a strong trading correlation often rising and falling in tandem.

Quote of the Day

“. . .[T]he decay of capitalism and free markets should raise concerns for anyone’s market thesis, bullish, bearish or agnostic. What stops a central bank from manipulating asset prices? When do they cross a line from marginal manipulation to absolute price control? Unfortunately, there are no concrete answers to these questions, but there are clues.

Global central banks’ post-financial crisis monetary policies have collectively been more aggressive than anything witnessed in modern financial history. Over the last ten years, the six largest central banks have printed unprecedented amounts of money to purchase approximately $14 trillion of financial assets. . . Before the financial crisis of 2008, the only central bank printing money of any consequence was the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC).” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice


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Another mysterious waterfall drop at the COMEX open, but a good week nevertheless

LATE REPORT

Gold finished up $2.50 today at $1255.13.  Silver finished up 10¢ at $15.97. We got another waterfall drop this morning precisely at the COMEX open (8:30 am) after (in response to?) a strong showing in the overnight market that took the price to the $1261.50 mark.  As we have pointed out consistently at this page, it is unlikely that this type of price action is the result of thousands of investors suddenly deciding to sell gold at exactly the same moment and then just as suddenly completely stopping . . .Take special note of the very large volume bars at the bottom of the chart.  Someone gave their computer a kick this morning.  Woke that sleeping dog.

Nevertheless. . . . . On the week:
Gold – Up $6.82 [$1248.31 ––>$1255.13]
Silver  – Up 13¢ [$15.84 ––> $15.97]

Quote[s] of the Day
“The South Sea Bubble took place in the 18th century in England. Sir Isaac Newton who was one of the great intellects in history lost his fortune in the South Sea Bubble. Strangely enough he invested, took profits, but then was lured back into the mania near the peak of the bubble and ended up losing his fortune. Without going into great detail the South Sea Company was a joint stock company created to consolidate and reduce the cost the national debt of England in the early 18th century. Before the bubble burst Sir Isaac Newton was famously quoted as saying ‘I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.’” – Bob Moriarity, 321Gold

“There have been 2 spin-offs (Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold) from Bitcoin and there are currently more than 1,300 different cryptocurrencies. So the idea that it’s limited is actually not correct. The long term chart of Bitcoin is curvilinear and just like at every other market top there are 100 reasons to buy (just as there are 100 reasons to sell at every market bottom). People are irrational. You don’t need to know anything about Bitcoin, you just need to understand human nature. This is a bubble and some of the brightest people alive fell for it.” – Bob Moriarity, 321Gold

(According to Convoy Investments, bitcoin achieved dubious distinction this week. It surpassed the 1619-1622  Dutch TulipMania as the biggest investment bubble in history.)


News & Views
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals
December, 2017

Here we are in December, chugging along toward the end of the year.  In the recently released December issue of News & Views, we concentrate on the gold market itself with a variety short but informative reports with the upcoming year in mind:

• On the ghosts of Decembers past (See reprint above)
• End-of-year gold and silver price predictions
• U.S. Mint makes a mint selling gold coins at a 25% mark-up
• Gold’s mysterious waterfall drops
• The gold/quality man’s suit ratio

• And a long run of “Notable Quotables” for your reading pleasure

If you are not already a subscriber, we invite you to sign-up for free immediate access to the December issue, as well as future issues of our newsletter.  We think you will enjoy the subject matter and gain from our take on recent events in the gold market.

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Positioning in futures’ markets benefits current price, $1700 target

Kitco/Daniela Cambone/12-15-2017

“[Vince Lanci, founder of Connecticut-based Echobay Partners]said he could see the metal hitting $1,700 an ounce or higher in 2018, if correct, his forecast would be an over $450 rally from the current level of $1,250 an ounce. ‘On Tuesday we had a short covering rally. And Wednesday there was a 10,000 contract increase in December – that’s very unusual, that is an over 2.3% increase in open interest that comes on the heels of the day before, of people getting out – that is not common, but when it does happen it’s a sign that either a) shorts are getting stopped out or b) you have prop traders positioning themselves for asset allocators coming in,’ Lanci explained.”

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Commerzbank: We suspect the gold/silver ratio has peaked at 80

LATE REPORT

Gold gave back a portion of yesterday’s gains but by and large managed to hold its own today.  It finished at $1252.70, down $2.58.  Silver too gave back a bit finishing at $15.87, down 17¢ on the day.

One of the more interesting releases during the course of the day came from Germany’s Commerzbank. In its Bullion Weekly Technicals publication, analyst Karen Jones says “We suspect that the [Gold/Silver ratio] has peaked at 80.”  As for gold, using Elliot wave chart analysis, she projects a “5 wave” top for gold over $2000 per ounce and the bottom of the “4 wave” at $1168. Says Commerzbank on gold: “Our long term bias remains bullish.”

Quote of the Day
“The defining feature of the recent half-cycle is that monetary policy, regulatory policy and proposed tax policy have all very intentionally nourished the primitive, untethered, speculative Id of Wall Street. Freud called the Id ‘a cauldron full of seething excitations, striving to bring about the satisfaction of instinctual needs subject to the observance of the pleasure principle.’  That’s a reasonable description of monetary policy under Ben Bernanke, and much of what has unfolded under the current Administration.” – Jon Hussman, Hussman Funds

Commerzbank Bullion Weekly Technicals

RATIO SWAPS
If you agree with Commerzbank, perhaps swapping out of a gold position for silver at the 80:1 ratio makes financial sense. We invite you to call our Order Desk to review whether or not this makes sense for you (and/or your IRA). The premiums on silver coins and bars offer additional incentive at present.  We have a strong inventory position at advantageous prices we can pass along.

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Gold bounces off December lows, up $11 on the day

LATE REPORT

Gold took the occasion of the Fed winding up its meeting to bounce off December’s lows and begin moving higher.  Gold finished up $11 today at $1255, but up $20 from its $1235 low water mark earlier in the day. Silver finished up 33¢ at $16.03 and 42¢ from its low on the day.  Both are up marginally in Asian markets.

Quote of the Day
“While the lack of liquidity and increased volatility may keep bitcoin interesting, it’s unlikely to convince investors looking for the kind of diversification and hedging benefits which gold has proven to possess over its long history.” – Jeffrey Currie and Michael Hinds, Goldman Sachs


If you haven’t visited our new Online Order Desk as yet, we invite you to take a test drive. If you have ordered from us in the past, you automatically qualify for online ordering privileges.

Great prices. Quick delivery. All the time.
Modern gold and silver bullion coins and bars
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The short side of the gold market temporarily having its way. . . .

LATE REPORT

Gold was down $6.40 today at $1291 and silver was down 14¢ at $15.69.  Thus far in December gold is down $38 and silver is down 72¢.

Speculators the long side of the futures market are well aware of the “December effect”, i.e, the fact that Decembers do not treat the precious metals kindly. Judiciously, they have elected to keep their powder dry for the time being. That collective recalcitrance, particularly with another Fed meeting on the immediate horizon, has left the short side to temporarily have its way. Come Christmas-time, if past history holds true, we might be writing a different story in these evening reports.

Quote of the Day
“So what happens when bitcoin blows up? If history is any guide then in periods prone to investment bubbles, like ours with its low cost of capital and highly inflated asset prices, then speculation will move on to something else. Why should it be gold and its even shinier sister silver? Well, historically, the people who always do best out of any investment bubble are usually those that cash out and buy precious metals.” – Peter Cooper, The National


The December issue of News & Views, is now available. We invite your interest.

FREE IMMEDIATE ACCESS. Much to think about, analyze, digest. . . . 

 

 

 

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Speculators run down gold price today on Fed rate hike

Gold was down another $16 today as speculators pounced on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate hike as sufficient reason to run down prices.  It finished at $1247 on the day. Silver also took a hit, down 23¢ on the day to finish at $15.69.  Decembers have not been kind to the metals in recent years and Federal Reserve policy has been a defining issue in each instance.  Prices, though, tended to level out by Christmas-time and by January the metals were trending higher – in some years significantly higher. To learn more we invite you to read the post immediately above this one.

Quote of the Day
“The changing of the guard at the US Federal Reserve raises questions over future policy and casts a shadow over the dollar in 2018. With the departure of prominent Fed members Stanley Fischer and Daniel Tarullo earlier this year, and the announcement that chair Janet Yellen will step down in February, analysts say the US is poised for its least experienced board of governors in three decades. The sweeping changes at board level might discount what analysts at Danske Bank are calling the ‘Fed experience premium’ baked into the dollar since 1973.” – Emma Dunkley, Financial Times

 

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The Gift of Gold – A simple thought for the holiday season

by Michael J. Kosares
Founder:  USAGOLD
Author:  The ABCs of Gold Investing – How To Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold

Gold has a past. I suspect it has a future.

We live in a time when currencies and financial markets have become political enterprises – creations of the world’s governments and central banks. Since we have never seen times like these, when so much depends on the monetary largesse of the policy-makers, no one really knows where the future might lead us. Uncertainty reigns and, when that is the case, history teaches us that gold demand rises proportionally and at times impressively so.

Uncertainty reached a whole new level, though, toward the end of November when minutes of a recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting revealed a level of concern within the central bank not often expressed in the public venue. “In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility,” read the minutes, “several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial imbalances. They worried that a sharp reversal in asset prices could have damaging effects on the economy.” Blunt as it was, a good many took those words as a warning from on high about the prospects for 2018.

The gift of gold – the one passed from generation to generation in ancient times to present – is the protection it offers against an unpredictable economy. The gift of gold, in short, is peace of mind.

Wishing you and yours the very best for the holiday season and a prosperous New Year from all of us at USAGOLD.

On the ghosts of Decembers past

December, as it turns out, has been a humbug month for gold the past four years. In each of those years (2013 through 2016) December began poorly, but appropriately by Christmas-time things began to look brighter. By the end of January in the following year, the star over the gold market shone still more brightly. . .

–– On December 1, 2013 gold finished the day at $1220 per ounce. The low for the month came on the 19th at $1188, but by January 31, 2014, it traded at $1244 – up 4.7% from the December low.

–– On December 1, 2014 gold finished the day at $1212 per ounce. The low for the month came on the 24th at $1174, but by January 30, 2015, it traded at $1283 – up 9.3% from the December low.

–– On December 1, 2015 gold finished the day at $1069 per ounce. The low for the month came on the 17th at $1051, but by January 31, 2016, it traded at $1118 – up 6.4% from the December low.

–– On December 1, 2016 gold finished the day at $1171 per ounce. The low for the month came on the 22nd at $1128, but by January 31, 2017, it traded at $1210 – up 7.3% from the December low.

So the lesson imparted is to buy in December and enjoy the holidays. January is the start to a wholly new year.


Here we are in December, chugging along toward the end of the year.  In the recently released December issue of News & Views, we concentrate on the gold market itself with a variety short but informative reports with the upcoming year in mind:

• On the ghosts of Decembers past (See reprint above)
• End-of-year gold and silver price predictions
• U.S. Mint makes a mint selling gold coins at a 25% mark-up
• Gold’s mysterious waterfall drops
• The gold/quality man’s suit ratio

• And a long run of “Notable Quotables” for your reading pleasure

If you are not already a subscriber, we invite you to sign-up for free immediate access to the December issue, as well as future issues of our newsletter.  We think you will enjoy the subject matter and gain from our take on recent events in the gold market.


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JP Morgan says $1300 barrier will be breached in 2018

LATE REPORT

Gold was down marginally today at $1263, but since reversing in its latest attempt to breach the $1300 barrier, it is down about $31 (from $1294).  Silver has followed along though with a greater percentage loss.  It finished today $15.93, down about 15¢ on the day and $1.09 from it’s recent high water mark of $17.27 (11/17).  JP Morgan, however, believes that the $1300 mark will be breached by the second half of 2018 saying “As we believe gold rallies on the back of US real yields potentially stagnating in 2H18, we see even greater upside potential in silver given its historical tendency to outperform gold during outsized rallies.”  Not sure what they mean by “outsized”, but they think gold will be trading in $1340 range by 2018 year end.

Quote of the Day
“We’re in a stage where if nothing is changed, we’re about to go from stagnation to stagflation, with a significant rise in inflation and a wholly significant imbalance in the economy, which is very difficult to anticipate at this stage. But the outlook is not exactly terrific.” – Alan Greenspan (12/6/2017)


Here we are in December, chugging along toward the end of the year.  In the recently released December issue of News & Views, we concentrate on the gold market itself with a variety short but informative reports with the upcoming year in mind:

• On the ghosts of Decembers past
• End-of-year gold and silver price predictions
• U.S. Mint makes a mint selling gold coins at a 25% mark-up
• Gold’s mysterious waterfall drops
• The gold/quality man’s suit ratio

• And a long run of “Notable Quotables” for your reading pleasure

If you are not already a subscriber, we invite you to sign-up for free immediate access to the December issue, as well as future issues of our newsletter.  We think you will enjoy the subject matter and gain from our take on recent events in the gold market.


With the recent addition of our brand new Online Order Desk, we offer a secure portal to buy gold and silver at great prices day or night at your convenience.  We encourage you to visit and look around. . . .

 

 

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For Christmas this year, give the gift of gold

Lucky French Angels

Coins, pendants and buyer incentives. . . . .

Review our seasonal offer here.

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Gold’s 47-year bull market

Gold Eagle/Steve Saville/11-24-2017

“This is why the gold/commodity ratio tends to trend downward when everything seems fine on the surface and rocket upward when it becomes apparent that numerous investing mistakes have been made and that the future will be nowhere near as copacetic as previously assumed. It’s reasonable to expect that the multi-generational upward trend in the gold/commodity ratio that began in the early-1970s will continue for at least as long as the current monetary system remains in place. Why wouldn’t it?”

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Blunt Fed tips gold see-saw higher

LATE REPORT

Gold was up today continuing the mercurial, see-saw performance that has dominated its price action over the past several weeks.  Finishing at $1292, gold was up $11.50 on the day and pretty much ended this shortened week (for all intents and purposes) where it started.  Silver was up 20¢ on the day finishing at $17.15, but down about 14¢ on the shortened week.

The minutes to the most recent Federal Reserve meeting reveal a governing committee genuinely concerned about the price levels in the stock market and the possibility for “a sharp reversal in asset prices [that] could have damaging effects on the economy.” Blunt as it is, that assessment is likely to stick in both peoples’ minds and the financial markets’ repertoire for weeks to come as we move to the end of 2017.  The gold market seems to have taken it as a caution on raising interest rates as well as a warning from on high.

Quote of the Day
“In a goldilocks scenario of low interest rates, abundant liquidity, stable growth and a focus on the ‘good’ Trump, investors continue to push asset prices, volatility and leverage to historical extremes. Yet, a low volatility carry environment with rather extreme positioning is a dangerous combination, which we recently likened to dancing on the rim of a volcano.” – Alain Bokobza, head of global asset allocation, Societe Generale


What is this important chart telling us about future Fed policy?
And what does it mean for the gold market?

Find out in the current issue of our newsletter.
We cover the gold market with the gold owner in mind.

FREE IMMEDIATE ACCESS to our latest issue

Newcomers, prospective clientele. . . . We welcome your interest.


News & Views
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis
on the Economy and Precious Metals


 

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Gold reverses Friday’s gains, another mysterious mega-trade

Gold reversed today what it gained on Friday finishing down $17.25 at $1276.63.  Silver followed suit giving up 39¢ and finishing the day at $16.89.  Again today, gold and the Japanese yen were traveling partners, and now with the yen recovering in Asian trading gold has perked up as well (up $3 in the overnight market at $1279.50).  There was little in the way of news to justify the price drop – just a huge 15,000 contract dump  in a matter of seconds at the COMEX open reminiscent of a similar mysterious mega-trade last week. By the way, the U.S. federal government just went over $80 billion in additions to the national debt in November – quite a pace as we move to the end of 2017.

Quote of the Day
“Gold traders are having to grow more accustomed to surges in trading volume as spikes that began surfacing around mid-year become more frequent. In the 10 minutes ended 3:10 a.m. in New York on Tuesday, when most North American traders were probably still asleep, contracts representing more than 2 million ounces of the metal changed hands on the Comex, sending prices down as much as 0.7 percent. The bulls responded hours later, with trades covering more than 3.5 million ounces at around 10 a.m., helping to push the price higher.” – Luzi-Ann Javier, Bloomberg


From the October, 2017 issue of News & Views. . . . .

“In fact, institutional involvement may be unprecedented at this juncture and it is not just the high-profile gold advocates like Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller and David Einhorn pumping capital into the market, but hundreds of funds and institutions from one end to the globe to the other.

It came to light this past month, for example, that almost 3000 tonnes* of gold in physical form sit on the balance sheets of Chinese commercial banks and financial institutions – a surprising revelation. In the West, inventories at gold ETFs, the favored gold ownership vehicle for professional investors, have gone from 2050 tonnes in late 2015 to just under 2770 tonnes now – a gain of 720 tonnes or 35%. Last month, the World Gold Council (WGC) published a report showing that European funds accounted for 79% of the overall growth in gold ETFs in 2017 with German funds and institutions accounting for half of those inflows.”

We cover the gold market with the gold owner in mind.
FREE IMMEDIATE ACCESS to our latest issue
News & Views
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals


 

 

 

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Gold up today in stellar fashion

LATE REPORT

Gold finished the day in stellar fashion – up $15.41 from yesterday’s close at $1293.87.  It finished the week up $18.52.  Silver also had a good day up 22¢ to finish at $17.27.  It was up 41¢ on the week.  As reported here, the upside push began last evening when it bolted higher in concert with the Japanese yen in Asian trading.  It sustained the upside in Europe early today then bled over to the U.S. market with the strongest part of the move coming in today’s COMEX trading.

Some gave credit to the tax bill, but with gold holding its own in recent weeks despite heavy paper selling, the shorts look like they are beginning to lose heart. Reports of heavy buying in the physical market by Bridgewater [Ray Dalio] might also have given short speculators cause for re-evaluation.  What is he factoring into the gold equation that they are not?

In the background, you have the clampdown in Saudi Arabia on big money players, including asset confiscations. (That had to turn a few heads among the moneyed elite in far-off places.) You also have North Korea back making unsettling assertions about its need to build a nuclear arsenal.  Then there is the small matter this past week of wholesale inflation suddenly registering something other than a faint pulse.

Quote of the Day
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” – Ernest Hemingway

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Gold bolts higher in overnight, Asian trading. . . . .

LATE REPORT

After a quiet day today in Stateside trading, gold is bolting higher in the overnight, Asian market – up about $6 at $1284.  The yen is pushing higher as well, a scenario that raises questions about the yen/gold relationship mentioned in these reports several times over the past few months.  The dollar, in fact, is down across the boards in overnight trading.  Here’s a snapshot on tonight’s trading, i.e., the yen-gold correlation.  There is a reason for the Japanese yen heading North and it’s made an impression on gold.  That reason is not evident at the moment.  We might know more as the evening unfolds.

Quote of the Day
“In a matter of only 2 quarters, Bridgewater has accumulated 3.894 million shares of GLD, which are worth $473M today and 11.3 million IAU shares, which are worth $140M today. Put together, Bridgewater is betting $613M of clients’ money that gold will perform well, and we know the benchmark is 21%, so Mr. [Ray]Dalio has a conservative outlook that gold prices will reach $1,556 by the end of 2018. . .gold has weathered through huge paper smashes that have proven to bears that demand is too strong right now. . . Gold held above its 200-DMA. It’s now trading above its 100-DMA and is on the brink of moving higher than the 50-DMA. ” – Wealth Research Group


If you are looking for a quick snapshot of the day’s events with respect to gold, or if you are attempting to put together an explanation as to why gold is up or down at any given point in time, you would gain from bookmarking our GOLD TODAY! page.  This page is heavily traveled and always has been.  We invite you to take advantage of this service provided by USAGOLD and check back here regularly for our take when the market breaks in one direction or the other.

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Gold up on PPI surprise, massive paper trade volume

LATE REPORT

Gold finished up $2 from yesterday’s close at $1280, but it was up $8 from the intraday low. Silver was down 2¢ at $17, but up 12¢ from the intraday low. Today’s upside in the gold market might well be the first signs of inflation affecting the price of the precious metal. It is too early to draw any strong conclusions, but the timing in concert with today’s release of the producer price index is worth noting. The sudden uptick in the PPI to 4.8% caught many Wall Streeters by surprise. A massive $4.5 billion in paper trades hit the COMEX market as the price dropped near the 200-day moving average and the PPI print hit computer screens.

Quote of the Day
“Money, again, has often been a cause of the delusion of multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper. To trace the history of the most prominent of these delusions is the object of the present pages. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” Charles Mackay Extraordinary Popular Delusions or the Madness of Crowds (1841)


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So, if you are among the contrarians out there saying, “I just don’t believe it”, or “Something’s gotta give”, you might be looking for ways to benefit when the inevitable rebalancing of asset values takes shape. In a gold market ripe with opportunity, the most compelling area of all is historic US $20 gold pieces, and more specifically the St. Gaudens in Mint State 63 grade – the focus of our November Special Offer.

TO LEARN MORE
$20 St. Gaudens Mint State 63
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Gold down today under mysterious circumstances

LATE REPORT

Gold dropped $10 today under mysterious circumstances. It finished the day at $1275.35  turning a fairly good week a bit upside down.  Silver went along for the ride finishing the day at $16.86 – down 10¢ on the day.  As it is gold finished up $5.60 for the week, silver up 4¢.

Seasonax’ Dmitri Speck has tracked daily gold movement since 2000 and has come to an interesting conclusion about Fridays.  “. . .[P]rices”, he says, “essentially tended to move sideways over the first four days of the week. Only in 2009 did Wednesday manage to generate a somewhat stronger average return as well. The gains in the gold price over the entire period of almost 17 years were primarily achieved on Fridays. . . On Friday prices frequently even managed to rise even when the gold price declined overall in the course of the year, such as e.g. in 2014. In short, Friday is indeed quite an unusual day.”

This Friday (today) was markedly different from Mr. Speck’s finding, and it all happened when some entity dumped 40,000 contracts on the New York Comex – four million ounces.  The price immediately dropped $10.  No one has come forward to admit the dirty deed, but its not the first time we have had one of these mysterious waterfall drops in the gold price sans a logical explanation.  The mystery of it all was proclaimed at several news sources including Reuters, Bloomberg and CNBC.


Quote of the Day
“The bullion market has seen similar mysterious trades in the past few months. Last month, contracts covering more than 2 million ounces of gold traded in just five minutes, sending prices higher. Two months earlier, contracts for a similar amount traded in a minute, propelling the metal higher. In June, the market saw trades for over 1.8 million ounces posted in just a minute.” – Luzi-Ann Javier, Bloomberg (article linked above)


News & Views is the contemporary, web-based version of our client letter which traces its beginnings to the early 1990s as a hard-copy newsletter mailed to our clientele. The “Big Breakout of 1999” headlined in the November, 1999 issue of our newsletter moved the gold price from $250 to $325 per ounce. It was a major event.  To put it in perspective, the same upward move today would put the gold price at better than $1650 per ounce.

The times have changed, but our mission has not. Simply put, it is to deliver value to our readers in the form of cutting-edge Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. The very same mission that has been displayed in our banner for over twenty-five years.

If you are looking for commentary on the gold market without the negative mainstream media spin, you will find News & Views a viable and valuable partner in that endeavor. We invite you to sign-up for FREE immediate access to our current newsletter as well as future publications. You never know with gold.  The next big breakout could be right around the corner.

November’s feature article:

Government Finances and Gold
A cautionary tale told in four straightforward charts


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Investment gold demand up 17%

LATE REPORT

Gold continued higher today – quietly finishing up another $3.78 at $1284.90.  Silver was down 4¢ on the day finishing at $16.96. Concerns about a ramp-up in Middle East geopolitical tensions along with the crackdown on many of Saudi Arabia’s wealthiest citizens have focused attention on the precious metals. The Gulf States have always been a strong market for physical gold and what is going on there now could fuel capital flight and even more demand.

The World Gold Council is out with its quarterly report on gold demand.  The headline – “Gold demand in Q3 at eight year low” – tells only part of the story.  Flagging jewelry sales in India led overall demand lower, and even then, the reduced demand is traced directly to India’s continuing attempts to artificially dampen demand through regulation. Central bank and private physical demand in the form of coins and bars, on the other hand, posted some fairly healthy numbers, up 25% and 17% year over year respectively.  China led the way – a steady source of strong physical demand.  All told, gold demand is holding up pretty well globally despite strong stock markets and central bank jawboning on interest rate and economic outlook expectations.

Quote of the Day
“Kuwait has unveiled a plan to build a massive gold city. The project which will cover 100,000 square meters will be the biggest of its kind in the region, according to Al Qabas newspaper. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry has submitted a demand to the Municipality of Kuwait City to assign the land for work on the mega project. The complex would include a building for precious metals, a VIP lobby, administrative facilities, car parks, jewelry testing labs, 1,500 jewelry workshops and 2,000 shops. The mega project will also include an exhibition hall, a permanent jewelry museum, a bourse for trading in gems and precious metals and another hall for holding auctions.” – MenaFN


The only “Why Gold” infographic
you will ever need

If you want a clear understanding of just what makes gold such a valuable portfolio alternative,  the link above is for you. This five part infographic will educate and delight prospective and experienced gold owners alike. Not the stuff of dry economics, it reveals in roughly 15-minutes viewing time how gold came to be mankind’s most revered form of money and safe haven asset, and why it is likely to remain so for a long time to come.

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Gold unstuck, moving ahead

LATE REPORT

Gold pushed higher today adding another $6 to the price and finishing at $1281.12.  Silver finished 9¢ higher at $17.00. Last week we talked about the metals running in place.  Now we are starting to get a little forward movement.   With everything that has occurred in the financial markets since election night, it is easy to overlook the fact that gold is still up 11% on the year and silver, though trailing, has managed to gain 7%.  By way of comparison, the S&P 500, which has been the beneficiary of a tremendous amount of positive publicity, is up a little over 15% thus far this year.

Jon Hussman (Hussman Strategic Advisors), who has a habit of calling major market turns, had some interesting advice for his clients recently. “For now, it’s enough to refrain from capitulating at record valuations,” he writes. “There’s no need to take a hard-negative outlook here, but don’t allow impatience, fear of missing out, or the illusion of permanently rising stock prices to entice you into entrusting your financial future to the single most overvalued market extreme in history.”  I interpret that message as a call to diversify.  Trees, as Richard Russell used to say, do not grow to the sky.

Quote of the Day
“Madness is rare in individuals – but in groups, parties, nations, and ages it is the rule.” – Friedrich Nietzsche


Should I buy a gold ETF?

You decide that the time has come to include gold in your investment portfolio. You contact your investment advisor and he or she puts you into a gold ETF. Did you do the right thing? In this article posted at USAGOLD’s Gilded Opinion page, Olivier Garret tells why gold coins and bullion owned outright are the better option.  Be aware: For the true asset preservation investor, hidden dangers lurk in the gold and silver ETFs.


 

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Turkey prices prove inflation not dead

Those of you who believe that inflation is dead are in for a big surprise when it comes time to plunk down your debit card to buy this year’s Thanksgiving Day featured table guest.  The price of turkey has spiked – up nearly 30% over last year.

 

 

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Gold off to healthy start for the week

LATE REPORT

Gold got off to a healthy start for the week today registering a $12.o5 gain to close at $1281.80  Similarly silver posted a 40¢ gain to close at $17.21.  As mentioned in the Friday LATE REPORT, it seems the precious metals were simply interested in getting past some of the overhanging questions, i.e., Fed policy and personnel, federal government numbers, etc., before deciding a direction.  It seems they leaned on “higher” once the Beltway smoke cleared and here we are. . . .The general instability in the Middle East is worth mentioning as the region is a long-standing market for the metals in physical form – particularly in the suddenly volatile Gulf oil states.

Quote of the Day
“It is beyond belief that we know so little about how people get rich or poor, about how it is they come to dwell in comfort and health or die in penury and disease. Financial markets are the machines in which much of human welfare is decided; yet we know more about how our car engines work than about how our global financial system functions. We lurch from crisis to crisis; so little is our knowledge that we resort not to science but to shamans.”  – Benoit Mandelbrat, Mathematician


If you are a chart enthusiast, we have a couple pages at the USAGOLD website worth bookmarking. These charts are presented in conjunction with the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) and update automatically through the magic of the internet.

Both pages are handy references used often to settle after-dinner disputes among family members about the direction of the economy and the gold market. [smile]

Gold trends and indicators in chart form

Monetary trends and indicators in chart form

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Gold, silver running in place

LATE REPORT

Gold was down $6.10 today finishing at $1269.75.  It was down $3.89 on the week.  Silver was down 26¢ on the day and 3¢ on the week.  The precious metals have been pretty much running in place the past several weeks with little in the way of news or developments to push prices forcibly one direction or the other.  Gold started the month of October at $1270.76 and finished it at $1270.86.  Silver similarly started October at $16.55 and finished it at $16.67.  The noisy headlines belied the quiet price action all month – not unusual for the precious metals markets which attract a lot of attention even when things are quiet. We will be looking to get some traction next week now that some of the outstanding market questions have found at least temporary resolution. . . . .

Quote of the Day
“Amid this mania for investment, the stock market has begun self – cannibalizing … literally. Since 2009, US companies have spent a record $3.8 trillion on share buy-backs financed by historic levels of debt issuance. Share buy backs are a form of financial alchemy that uses balance sheet leverage to reduce liquidity generating the illusion of growth. A shocking +40% of the earning-per-share growth and +30% of the stock market gains since 2009 are from share buy-backs. Absent this financial engineering we would already be in an earnings recession.” – Chris Cole, Artemis Capital


News & Views is the contemporary, web-based version of our client letter which traces its beginnings to the early 1990s as a hard-copy newsletter mailed to our clientele. The “Big Breakout of 1999” headlined in the November, 1999 issue of our newsletter moved the gold price from $250 to $325 per ounce. It was a major event.

The times have changed, but our mission has not. Simply put, it is to deliver value to our readers in the form of cutting-edge Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. The very same mission that has been displayed in our banner for over twenty-five years.

This month’s lead article, Government Finances and Gold, is published below, but there are few other nuggets of wisdom and perspective in the current edition that will be of interest to current and would-be gold owners.

FREE SUBSCRIPTION
Immediate access.

Prospective client?  We invite your no obligation interest.


 

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Gold pumped by Fed chairman decision

LATE REPORT

Gold was up today in Fed-related trading.  It finished the day at $1274.49 up $3.63 from yesterday’s closing number.  It is up another $6 in overnight trading.  Silver had an even better day, up 43¢ and back over the $17 mark at $17.10.  It is up another 6¢ in the overnight market.  Pushing the market was a Wall Street Journal report that the president had appointed Jerome Powell chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell is generally considered dovish on interest rates.  Adding to the gold-positive tone was a report from the China Gold Association that bar demand there was up 15.49% through the first three quarters of the year. Gold is up 6% in yuan terms so far this year.

Quote of the Day
“We think the final break with precious metal currency systems from the early 1970s (after centuries of adhering to such regimes) and to a fiat currency world has encouraged budget deficits, rising debts, huge credit creation, ultra loose monetary policy, global build-up of imbalances, financial deregulation and more unstable markets. The various breaks with gold based currencies over the last century or so has correlated well with our financial shocks/crises indicator. It shows that you are more likely to see crises/shocks when we break from hard currency systems. Some of the devaluation to Gold has been mindboggling over the last 100 years.” – Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank


If our Quote of the Day resonates, you will find the lead article for our November newsletter of interest. Please scroll below to “Government Finances and Gold–A cautionary tale told in four straightforward charts” and a link to signing-up for the rest of the newsletter (which we believe you will find equally interesting).
 

 

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Government Finances and Gold

A cautionary tale told in four straightforward charts

by Michael J. Kosares
Author:  The ABCs of Gold Investing–How To Protect & Build Your Wealth with Gold
Founder:  USAGOLD
“President Trump, in complete contradiction to candidate Trump, has praised Yellen for being a ‘low-interest-rate-person.’ One reason Trump may have changed his position is that, like most first-term presidents, he thinks low interest rates will help him win reelection. Trump may also realize that his welfare and warfare spending plans require an accommodative Fed to monetize the federal debt. The truth is President Trump’s embrace of status quo monetary policy could prove fatal to both his presidency and the American economy.” – Ron Paul, Institute for Peace and Prosperity
Editor’s note: This issue of our newsletter features several interactive, live charts offered in conjunction with the St. Louis Federal Reserve and the ICE Benchmark Administration/LBMA. You can access statistical details by moving your cursor over the charts. If the chart does not automatically update, please move the toggle button on the year bar all the way to the right. We invite you to bookmark this edition for future reference.

CHART 1: Sustained by both political parties, the national debt has taken on a life of its own

(Click to enlarge)

Since the early 1970s, the logic for gold ownership has been inextricably bound to the cash flow problems of the federal government. As the national debt increased so did the well-documented damage associated with it – to the dollar, to financial markets and to the economy in general. Simultaneously, gold’s role as an inversely correlated portfolio hedge grew over that nearly one-half century as well.

As you can see from the chart above, which shows the percent change in the national debt from the previous year, those problems do not favor any particular political party or president. In a certain sense, it has taken on a life of its own, marching to over $20 trillion without regard to party ideology. I mention that for the benefit of those who might think that somehow things might be different under a Trump administration. In fact, the greatest percentage growth in the national debt occured surprisingly during Republican administrations.

“As GOP lawmakers are struggling to enact an agenda of spending and tax reform,” says one journalist, “they continue to face the painful reminder that Trump has no ideological drive to tame the deficit. The President has made clear that he doesn’t mind if deep tax cuts result in a ballooning of the national debt.”

CHART 2: How the national debt and the Fed could bankrupt the nation

DEFICITS MATTER!

Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the first to publicly declare that deficits did not matter since, he reasoned, we owe the money to ourselves. Dick Cheney, who should have known better, made the same claim on behalf of Republican deficits. Deficit denial has never held water simply because holders of government paper, foreign or domestic, intend to be repaid and with interest. It’s that part about creditors demanding interest that blows a hole in the “deficits-do-not-matter” argument. One of the stand-out features of the chart above is that, as interest rates have declined over the last several years, the interest paid by the federal government has increased markedly due to the rapid growth in size of the accumulated debt.

Some quick background:

* * * In 2008 when the national debt stood at $10 trillion, the federal government paid $336 billion in interest. For a measuring stick, the ten-year Treasury bill drew an average interest rate at the time of around 3.66%.

* * * In 2012 when the debt crossed the $16 trillion threshold, the interest payment was almost $456 billion. The ten-year Treasury bill drew an average interest rate of 1.80%.

* * * In 2016 with the national debt approaching the $20 trillion mark, the interest payment was $497 billion. The ten-year Treasury bill drew an average interest rate of 1.84%. It is difficult to overlook the fact that 2016’s interest payment was an all-time record at the second lowest rate on the 46-year chart.

* * * If the ten-year Treasury bill were to rise to 2.82% (the average since 2007), the implied interest payment would exceed $750 billion, 20% more than what the United States spends annually on the national defense.

* * * If the average interest rate were to double from current levels (about 3.7% on the ten year Treasury bill), the United States would pay almost $1 trillion annually in interest on the national debt, or nearly one-third of 2016 tax revenues ($3.27 trillion). At that point, markets might begin to question the solvency of the U.S. federal government.

The exercise above points up the limitations on the Federal Reserve with respect to raising interest rates. It is a cautionary tale told in some very big numbers that promise to become even larger. In short, the onerous public debt has hamstrung the Fed in ways that policy-makers are loathe to discuss publicly. The Federal Reserve either keeps a leash on interest rates, or it bankrupts the nation.

CHART 3: The national debt is the ultimate threat to the dollar’s reserve currency status

In the worst-case scenario, the accumulated debt and interest payments reach levels the markets find intolerable, threatening the dollar’s reserve currency status and foreign creditors’ confidence in U.S. Treasury paper. We came perilously close to that in 2011 when Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s credit status citing the lack of “effectiveness, stability and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions.” Since then, an argument could be made that things have only gotten worse. Not only has the red ink flowed at an unprecedented rate, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio has gone from 62% in 2007 to 105% now. Among the G-20 nations, the United States now has the third worst debt-to-GDP ratio. Only Japan and Italy have worse. One cannot help but wonder what might lie ahead as we enter a new round of Washington wrangling over government finances.

CHART 4: The national debt has made gold a superstar

Few correlations in the financial markets ring truer and more consistently than the one between the federal debt and gold. That relationship between the two is about as fundamental as it gets because it goes to the heart of what’s wrong with the debt-based fiat money system. As the federal government borrows more and more dollars into existence and the banking system pushes those dollars through the global monetary system, it diminishes the value of all the other dollars already being held somewhere by somebody – domestic private investors, financial institutions, foreign governments and central banks, et al.

With respect to foreign holders of the U.S. sovereign debt, the process begins with trade imbalances that are later converted to Treasury paper in order to earn a yield. This process of replication simultaneously showcases gold, which cannot be replicated at will, as the dollar’s counterpoint and chief competitor – a superstar portfolio holding for reasons French president Charles DeGaulle famously outlined in his “Criterion” speech delivered in 1965. France set the tone and strategy for dealing with the “export” of dollars, as he described it, by converting those imbalances to gold and taking delivery within French borders.

From that time forward global investors, both private and public, have followed the French model with China’s current gold acquisition program the most notable recent example. The result is what you see on the chart. For those with capital preservation as the goal, gold has been a stalwart and productive ally since the United States went off the gold standard in 1971 and launched the era of fiat money, federal deficits and the massive federal debt.

As for the future, we should keep in mind that the very same conditions which created the long-term secular trend for both the national debt and gold are still in place today – nothing has changed fundamentally. As long as that is the case, we can assume gold will continue to attract capital as a long-term portfolio hedge just as it has, to varying degrees, through the first 46 years of the fiat money system. Please note, too, that gold is trading below the federal debt’s trend line, an indication that it might have some catching up to do in the months and years ahead.


If you would like to broaden your view of gold market, we invite you to sign-up for our regular newsletter and receive quality commentary like what you have just read. It’s free of charge and comes by e-mail. You can opt out at any time.

News & Views is the contemporary, web-based version of our client letter which traces its beginnings to the early 1990s as a hard-copy newsletter mailed to our clientele. The “Big Breakout of 1999” headlined in the November, 1999 issue of our newsletter moved the gold price from $250 to $325 per ounce. It was a major event.

The times have changed, but our mission has not. Simply put, it is to deliver value to our readers in the form of cutting-edge Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. The very same mission that has been displayed in our banner for over 25 years.

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Gold down today picking up where it left off Friday

Gold was down today picking up where it left off Friday by giving up another $5.14 and finishing the day at $1270.86.  Silver finished off 15¢ at $16.67. Most of the downside occurred in the Asian market and simultaneously (again) with depreciation in the Japanese yen against the dollar.  Gold and silver both leveled out in U.S. trading. Gold and silver are down marginally in overnight trading. Generally speaking, most of the downside in gold the past few weeks is related to speculation about who might end up chairing the Fed and future interest rate policy.  An announcement on the next Fed chair is due before the end of the week.

Quote of the Day
“A financial strategist at a major investment bank in Europe recently told me he keeps two-thirds of his personal investment portfolio in a global stock portfolio and the remaining third in gold bullion. He’s not a crazy, far-right conspiracy nut or classic gold bug either. So why all the gold? ‘Political risk,’ he says. ‘It’s my insurance against the world’s governments or central banks screwing things up.'” – Brett Arends, MarketWatch


Happy Halloween everyone!


If you would like a different perspective on the economy and the financial markets – one distinctly separate from what is bandied about in the financial press as the daily regimen – you would probably enjoy our newsletter.

In the November issue (to be released soon) . . . .
Government finances and gold (in-depth)
What does it take to garner a real rate of return on your money these days
Four steps to becoming a successful gold and silver investor
And more. . . . .

It is available free of charge  to our current and prospective clientele, and we invite you to sign up here.  Immediate access to our October issue.

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold continues southward trek, euro in tailspin

LATE REPORT

Gold continued its trek southward today with a drop of $10.37 finishing at $1266.86. Silver in similar fashion finished the day down 15¢ at $16.77. Today’s downside came the result of speculation that the next Fed chairman would bring a hawkish tone to interest rate and monetary policy, but that decision is still very much up in the air.  Also the European Central Bank announced it would halve its bond buying program from 60 billion to 30 billion euros per month, but undercut the reduction by extending the time frame 9 months from January to September, 2018.  The announcement sent the euro into a tailspin, the dollar higher and gold lower.


Small Observation
A situation that may or may not occur combines with a different situation likely to inspire strong precious metals demand among the local citizenry.  The two somehow conspire to drive prices lower. Contrarians, please take note.


Quote of the Day
“[T]he time had come, as in all periods of speculation, when men sought not to be persuaded by the reality of things but to find excuses for escaping into the new world of fantasy.” – John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929


Market Anecdote
Bernard Baruch, the famous early 20th century stock speculator, in explaining the behavior of markets:

“Have you ever seen in some wood, on a sunny quiet day, a cloud of flying midges — thousands of them — hovering, apparently motionless, in a sunbeam? …Yes? …Well, did you ever see the whole flight — each mite apparently preserving its distance from all others — suddenly move, say three feet, to one side or the other? Well, what made them do that? A breeze? I said a quiet day. But try to recall — did you ever see them move directly back again in the same unison? Well, what made them do that? Great human mass movements are slower of inception but much more effective.”

This is the same Bernard Baruch who just before the stock market crash of 1929 liquidated his stock holdings and put his money into bonds and cash, and then later, after the crash, dumped a good portion of his fortune into gold. When asked why he would do such a thing by the Secretary of the Treasury, Baruch replied that he was “commencing to have doubts about the currency.”

While others banked on the 1920’s stock mania, Baruch’s intuition was telling him that there was something amiss. There are times when it pays to distinguish yourself from the crowd – the midge that flies in the other direction.


If you are commencing to have doubts about the currency, or at the very least, if you are commencing to have doubts about the stock market perhaps the time has come to speak with a USAGOLD representative about hedging your portfolio with the precious metals.

In the meantime, if you would like a different perspective on the economy and the financial markets – one distinctly separate from what is bandied about in the financial press as the daily regimen – you would probably enjoy our newsletter.

November issue (to be released next week)
Government finances and gold (revisited)
What does it take to garner a real rate of return on your money these days
Four steps to becoming a successful gold and silver investor
And more. . . . .

It is available free of charge  to our current and prospective clientele, and we invite you to sign up here.  Immediate access to our October issue.


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