Author Archives: USAGOLD

Davos World Economic Forum: Risk Report says systemic collapse possible, but will the word “gold” be uttered publicly?

World Economic Forum/The Global Risks Report 2018/

“When a risk cascades through a complex system, the danger is not of incremental damage but of ‘runaway collapse’—or, alternatively, a transition to a new, suboptimal status quo that becomes difficult to escape. For example, even though a runaway collapse of the global financial system was averted a decade ago, the global financial crisis triggered numerous economic, societal, political and geopolitical disruptions. Many are still only poorly understood, but they shape a ‘new normal’ that in turn will create its own disruptions, spillovers and feedback loops in the months and years ahead.

As the pace of change accelerates, signs of strain are evident in many of the systems on which we rely. We cannot discount the possibility that one or more of these systems will collapse. Just as a piece of elastic can lose its capacity to snap back to its original shape, repeated stress can lead systems—organizations, economies, societies, the environment—to lose their capacity to rebound. If we exhaust our capacities to absorb disruption and allow our systems to become brittle enough to break, it is difficult to overstate the damage that might result.”

USAGOLD note: Next week we have the Davos conference.  President Trump will address the gathering on Friday (1-26-2018), its final day.  Needless to say, his presence there has already generated considerable controversy, so this year Davos will get its fair share of attention in the mainstream media.  As you might have gathered, conference organizers have a long list of risks to occupy their attention (as covered in the Risks Report linked above) culminating with the dangers to our financial systemic outlined briefly above. One doubts that the word “gold” will be uttered publicly in this context, but as we have come to find out over the past year, a good many of the participants are, in fact, gold owners. The subject no doubt will be raised in a conversation or two held privately.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold continues to give ground early

EARLY REPORT

Gold continued to give ground today in a continuation of the profit-taking/position rejiggering that began yesterday.  It is trading at $1333 and down almost $8 on the day.  Silver finds itself in similar straits, down 16¢ at $17.06.  An attempt to recover during Asian trading hours last night failed at the $1344 level for gold and $17.28 for silver. The London market was relatively quiet.

Undergirding the precious metals markets are general concerns about the overall health of the financial markets going forward. Reuters reports this morning that “In the longer term, gold will be supported by risk that global share prices could fall from record highs and strong growth around the world could stoke inflation. ‘Concerns regarding (share price) overvaluations and the possibility of rising inflation have reignited interest in gold,’ Standard Chartered analysts said.”

Chart of the Day
Last night we mentioned gold’s strength in terms of the Japanese yen.  For the curious among our readers,  here is the two-year chart for gold in yen from our friends at Gold Charts ‘R’ Us.  Note the spike that began in mid-December.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold, silver register muted reaction to stock market’s “wild flip-flop” (at least for today)

LATE REPORT

Gold finished down $3.39 on the day at $1339.05 recovering some of the loss it experienced earlier in the day.  Silver finished 20¢ lower at $17.24. The most important news of the day, of course, is the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s harrowing 283-point reversal. CNBC followed the day with an appropriate headline: “Stock market’s wild flip flop comes as warning signs build”.  As for gold and silver, the reaction to events on Wall Street was muted at best, at least for today.

Quick update:  Gold is showing some spunk in the overnight (Asia) market, now trading at $1344.  Silver is trading at $17.30. The price of gold in yen is up sharply.

Quote of the Day
“Money, again, has often been a cause of the delusion of multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper. To trace the history of the most prominent of these delusions is the object of the present pages. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” – Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841)


From the January edition of USAGOLD’s News & Views:

“In studying the chart, it is difficult to ignore the possibility that we may have come to an inflection point for gold. As you can see, the DJIA price line went vertical in the last five years of the cycle beginning in the sixteenth year. As mentioned earlier, gold’s secular bull market is now going into its 16th year. There is a possibility, given a convergence of dynamic events, that gold’s price line could follow the DJIA template – a turn of events that could make 2018 a critical year for the gold market. At the same time, it could turn out that gold’s cycle will be more protracted and the entire time line stretched. If the market does roll into the mania phase, the verticality, as suggested by our chart, will take a good many by surprise. In either case, at the very least we are likely to be in for a very interesting five-year period.”

If you would like to see that chart (and the accompanying in-depth commentary) which compares the 1980-2000 bull market in stocks to the current secular bull market in gold, we invite you to subscribe to our monthly newsletter.

FREE SUBSCRIPTION
Publication alerts by e-mail
As a bonus,  you will also receive immediate access to our in-depth investor information packet  – The SafeHaven Investor
(Six articles of interest to current and would-be gold owners)

 

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold down early today on technical selling

EARLY REPORT

Gold is down about $7 this morning at $1335.00 mostly, it appears, on technical selling after last week’s run-up.  Silver, down 24¢ at $17.12, is following gold’s lead.  In the recent past, it has bounced back from these technical episodes – sometimes during the same trading session. We shall see if that’s the case today.

The World Gold Council is out with its assessment for gold in 2018 and says that demand will be strong the result of global economic growth, shrinking central bank balance sheets, rising rates and frothy asset prices. “Gold’s performance in 2017 was not an anomaly,” says the Council, “It has provided competitive returns over the long run, growing by 10% on average since 1971 – following the collapse of Bretton Woods and the end of the Gold Standard. It has also performed well compared to major stock indices over the past two decades.”

Chart of the Day

ChartNote:  A number of news sources have run the 10-year Treasury yield chart to show the 30+ year bull market run for bonds.  What they fail to show, in most instances, is what inspired it – the runaway inflation of the 1970s and parallel spike in interest rates and yields.  For every action, as Sir Issac Newton instructed us, there is an equal and opposite reaction and implementation of that law applies to Fed policy in this respect as well.
After the 1970s inflationary spike, the Fed radically tightened the money supply and pushed interest rates higher (the Action).  That combination inaugurated the long-term run to the bottom on yields you see on the chart.  Now, in response to the conclusive disinflationary crisis of 2007-2013, it has responded with a flood of money and near-zero interest rates, (the equal and opposite Reaction.) Gold reacted well to the systemic crisis spawned by that disinflationary crisis and few would be surprised if it reacted other than positively to some future inflationary scenario as it did in the 1970s.
Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Massive short sale Friday failed to reverse gold’s uptrend

USAGOLD note:  Someone dumped a massive amount of paper gold on the COMEX at the open on Friday, January 12, 2018. The sale of 49,507 contracts (over 150 tonnes, noted below) temporarily caused a $13 drop in the price from $1334 to $1321.  Gold quickly recovered trading at one point near the $1340 level. We often hear about the paper dumps that kill an uptrend. This is one that failed and worth posting for future reference – the best laid plans of mice and men (and algorithms). . . . .gone awry.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold flexes muscle, posts $15+ gain today

LATE REPORT

Gold flexed some muscle today posting a $15.52 gain on the day and finishing at $1337.73.  It was up $18.48 on the week, or 1.4%, the fifth week in a row it has posted gains.  Gold is up 2.7 % in January and a strong 7.7% since its December 11 interim low. Silver also had a respectable day finishing up 26¢ on the day. Kind of lost in the day’s shuffle, the dollar fell broadly against all of its major competitors – the euro, pound, franc, yen and yuan.

For the details on today’s market action, we direct you further down the page to our EARLY REPORT and the run of posts on today’s developments.  It was quite a day. . . .

Quote of the Day
“But there will almost certainly be big losses in the system if rates did jump higher.  Leveraged corporate borrowers, and even governments, would also suffer shocks.  The Congressional Budget Office calculated that costs on US federal debt will rise from $270 billion to $712 billion over the next decade if 10-year yields rise from 1.8% to 3.6% (excluding the Trump tax cuts).  If that happened in just year, it would be deeply painful.” – Gillian Tett, Financial Times (1-12-2018)


If Gillian Tett’s concerns align with your own, you might benefit from “The National Debt and Gold” – one of six important investor-oriented articles included in. . . .

A magazine-like,  in-depth information packet on today’s gold market
for newcomers to the gold market and market veterans alike

When you consider that the 10 year Treasury hit 2.5% today,
the 3.6% rate pain threshold she mentions doesn’t seem that far off.  But what does it mean for Fed policy, for the dollar, for gold?


We invite you to register now for free immediate access.
Open to ALL including existing clientele.

“It’s not a question of IF but WHEN”

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold up 2.2% in January, commodities and core CPI drive today’s pricing

EARLY REPORT

Gold is tracking higher today in an extension of a rally that started last night in Asia.  Gold is up $9 at $1331.00. Silver is following suit, up 15¢ at $17.10.

As discussed in last night’s LATE REPORT, it looks like the move higher is being pushed by general strength in commodities. Since mid-December, commodities are up about 5% according to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Underlying the move is China’s stronger than expected economy in the second half of last year.  Gold sold off at the U.S. open, but then quickly regained its footing after the December Consumer Price Index report showed a surprise .3% gain (3.6% annualized) in core inflation.

As our chart of the Chart of the Day illustrates, gold is having a strong January as has been the case the past several years.  It is up 2.2% on the year and up 7.2% from the December 11 lows.

“It’s not a question of IF but WHEN”

An exclusive in-depth information packet on today’s gold market that will appeal to newcomers and market veterans alike


We invite you to register now for free immediate access.
We think you will appreciate this magazine-like update,
including six key articles, on the current gold market.

Open to ALL including existing clientele.


Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold strong in Asian trading, looks like commodity-based rally

LATE REPORT

Gold is exhibiting some strength in the Asian market tonight trading near the $1327 level and up about $3.50 from the U.S. close.  Silver has cracked the $17 barrier once again trading at $17.11, up about 7¢ from the close. There is not enough movement in the yen or yuan to explain the strength in precious metals. The only visible push at the moment is soaring oil and other commodity prices, including platinum and palladium – markets in which China occupies the epicenter. Gold is up firmly in Japanese yen as are the industrial metals.  We will go with a commodity-based rally for now.

Quote of the Day
“The question this raises is if the ratio breaks in gold’s favor, what will the majority of investors and hedge fund managers choose, yen or gold? Generally, choices like this are made based on momentum, leading us to believe that they will follow gold instead of the declining yen. Prepared investors are getting ready by selling their yen and buying up gold.” – Value Walk, The yen and gold correlation: A rush to precious metals (1-9-2018)


 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Newcomers’ Corner: Paper gold sets the gold price, not the buying and selling of physical metal

USAGOLD note:  We at USAGOLD are often asked by newcomers:  “If the demand for physical gold is so strong internationally, why isn’t the price considerably higher than where it is trading today?”  Here is a straightforward and succinct answer to that question from gold expert Ronan Manly who writes for Singapore’s BullionStar. This explanation will be especially meaningful to those trying to understand what drives the gold pricing mechanism.  I should add for purposes of clarity that physical trading does affect the pricing of paper gold in due time as the fundamentals come to influence traders’ thinking.  That last statement will make more sense once you have read Mr. Manly’s description below.

“However, ‘gold’ trading in London and on COMEX is really trading of very large quantities of synthetic derivatives on gold, which are completely detached from the physical gold market. In London, the derivative is fractionally-backed unallocated gold positions which are predominantly cash-settled, in New York the derivative is exchange-traded gold future contracts which are predominantly cash-settled and again are backed by very little real gold.

While the London and New York gold markets together trade virtually 24 hours, they interplay with the current status quo gold reference rate in the form of the LBMA Gold Price benchmark. This benchmark is derived twice daily during auctions held in London at 10:30 am and 3:00 pm between a handful of London-based bullion banks. These auctions are also for unallocated gold positions which are only fractionally-backed by real physical gold. Therefore, the de facto world-wide gold price benchmark generated by the LBMA Gold Price auctions has very little to do with physical gold trading.”

LINK: Ronan Manly, Bullion Star, Singapore

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Bond market sell-off, dollar worries pushing gold higher today

EARLY REPORT

Gold is tracking higher in early trading, up $5.00 at 1322.25 on continuing concerns about the U.S. bond market and the near-term value of the dollar.  Silver is up 5¢ at $17.01. The ECB minutes revealed a hawkish tone that pushed the euro up against the dollar.  As reported here yesterday, a similar tone from Japan’s central bank pushed the yen higher yesterday.  Financial Times ran a front-page story this morning  citing a slew of factors weighing on the market for U.S. Treasuries and causing a “fierce” sell-off yesterday –– a new era in the bond market, something called “Trumpflation,” the China reports we’ve featured (below) and Bill Gross, the Bond King, shorting Treasuries.  Gold has been a direct beneficiary of the bond and dollar concerns now preoccupying the financial markets.

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  This long term gold chart is drawn in log-scale. “Common percent changes,” says Investopedia of log-scale charts, “are represented by an equal spacing between the numbers in the scale. For example, the distance between $10 and $20 is equal to the distance between $20 and $40 because both scenarios represent a 100% increase in price.” On a linear chart the lesser values are compressed to the point that the viewer misses the strength of a price move, and the greater values are extended to a degree that they tend to dramatize a price move – up or down.  The log-scale chart presents data in a more realistic framework without the drama.  As you can see from the chart above, the upward trend of the gold price since the early 2000s is not nearly as strong as the move between 1970 and 1980 in percentage terms leading some analysts to believe that we have considerable upside yet to be charted.

If you haven’t visited our new Online Order Desk as yet, we invite you to take a test drive. We have been surprised by its instantaneous popularity and the number of clients who have already placed their first order – a number that grows daily. One of its most useful features is that you can order anytime day or night and on weekends. The state of the art system updates prices continuously, and we have a good selection of items available typical of most safe-haven precious portfolios. We invite your visit and your participation.

Great prices. Quick delivery. All the time.
Modern gold and silver bullion coins and bars
Historic fractional gold coins
Historic U.S. gold coins
Ongoing Special Offers

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

The dragon is back

LATE REPORT

Gold finished up $4.16 on the day at $1316.73.  Most of the gain however occurred in Asia and Europe.  Silver finished up just a penny at $16.95.  In early  Asian trading gold has tacked another $2 on to the price, so we will see what happens as the evening unfolds, i.e. whether Asia and Europe pick up where they left off last night.

The big news of the day undoubtedly is China’s announcement that it may call a halt to U.S. Treasuries purchases (as reported further down the page). It was probably not a coincidence that analysts for the Bank of China predicted on the same day that commodities would come into “full bloom” in 2018.  Since China is a huge market for commodities, maybe the London-based analysts behind the report know something we don’t.  In addition, we still have the action involving the yen/gold trade working the market at the present time, as we reported this morning and last night.

To get the rest of today’s scenario, please scroll.  Once again, it was a big day for news affecting the gold market.

Quote of the Day
“In our view (supported by a century of market cycles across history), investors are vastly underestimating the prospects for market losses over the completion of this cycle, are overestimating the availability of “safe” stocks or sectors that might avoid the damage, and are overestimating both the likelihood and the need for some recognizable “catalyst” to emerge before severe market losses unfold. We presently estimate median losses of about -63% in S&P 500 component stocks over the completion of the current market cycle. There is not a single decile of stocks for which we expect market losses of less than about -54% over the completion of the current market cycle, and we estimate that the richest deciles could lose about -67% to -69% of their market capitalization. As in 2000 and 2007, investors are mistaking a wildly reckless world for a permanently changed one, and their reeducation in the concept that valuations matter is likely to be predictably brutal.” – Jon Hussman, Hussman Strategic Advisors


Recent Better Business Review

“Thank you so much for your high rating for USAGOLD, Denver. They were recommended by a close friend and I researched them on your website in Oct 2009 and have been in touch with them ever since. I am now in full trust with their extraordinary business of great integrity and expertise. I will always deal with them . . Again, thank you for your expert ratings.” – Ellie C.

Scorecard:
38 five star reviews, zero complaints, A+ rating, accredited since 1991.
[Link]

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold bounces back in early trading

Early Report

Gold bounced off yesterday’s lows posting a nearly $7 gain in early trading at $1318.  Silver is up 5¢ at $17.01. Gold tracked higher overnight during both Asian and European trading hours getting as high as $1325 before reversing course.

We continue to monitor the gold/yen relationship and, as mentioned yesterday, were a bit puzzled by the break between the two in yesterday’s trading, i.e., the yen rising, gold falling. Today, the old relationship seems to be reasserting itself.  The yen is up sharply against the dollar.  Yesterday’s disconnect is beginning to look like a one-day wonder.

••• For those catching up, here’s a solid primer on the yen/gold situation just released this morning by Value Walk – The yen and gold correlation: A rush to precious metals.

Charts of the Day
FYI:  The first chart is an overlay showing the past two days.  The second chart shows the longer term trend we’ve highlighted in several reports over the past few months.  Remember that the yen is quoted in yen per dollar. Therefore it charts inversely, i.e. an up-trending line is declining yen value vs. the dollar and a down-trending line is rising yen value vs. the dollar.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold drifts sideways today, Japan ‘stealth taper’

LATE REPORT

Gold spent the U.S. trading session drifting sideways finishing down $7.73 on the day at $1312.57.  Silver had a similarly lackluster day finishing down 14¢ and moving back under the $17 level at $16.94. As mentioned in the Early Report, we didn’t see much in the way of news to vindicate the downside and, as a result, set blame with technical sellers taking profit in the wake of December’s big run-up.

Of interest: Reuters reports Japan trimming government bond purchases and general market speculation that it may be winding back monetary stimulus.  Japan’s ‘stealth tapering’, as traders are describing it, explains why the yen jumped higher the past 24 hours. It does not explain why gold, contrary to recent trending patterns, did not follow along. It will be interesting to see what happens in the overnight markets when Asia opens. This could be a one-day wonder or something else. . .We will keep an eye on the situation and report back.  Stay tuned. . . . .

There was much to report today. . .Scroll down for the full scenario.

Quote of the Day
“The dollar’s dominance as an international unit is buttressed by the country’s role as a global power guaranteeing the security of allied nations. If that role were seen as less sure and that security guarantee as less ironclad, because the U.S. was disengaging from global geopolitics in favor of more stand-alone, inward-looking policies, the security premium enjoyed by the U.S. dollar could diminish. Our estimates suggest, in this scenario, that $750 billion worth of official U.S. dollar-denominated assets – equivalent to 5 percent of US marketable public debt – would be liquidated and invested into other currencies such as the yen, the euro or the renminbi.” – Barry Eichengreen of the University of California, Berkeley, and Arnaud Mehl and Livia Chitu of the European Central Bank, Mercury and Mars

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

January 2018 SPECIAL OFFER


French 20 Franc Ceres
~170 year-old coins selling for $40 less per ounce than modern 1/10 ounce equivalents ~

The least expensive antiquity on a per ounce basis we’ve ever had the pleasure of offering…


Only 500 available.  First-come, first-served.
If you have ever participated in these special offers, you probably already know how quickly they can sell out.

You can order by phone:
1-800-869-5115
Ext#100

––or––

You can
Scroll down to “Current Specials”
If you haven’t yet set up an account, it only takes a few moments. New accounts will be approved within thirty minutes of request during normal business hours, and first thing tomorrow if you sign-up tonight.


Thank you for supporting this page and the USAGOLD website!

 

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold down early, selling in Europe sets pace

Early Report

Gold continued to sail choppy waters in early trading –  down $8.53 at $1311.72.  Silver is down 12¢ at $16.96.  At the moment gold is bouncing back from the $1310 low posted about an hour ago.  Odd, when compared to intraday trading patterns over the last several months, that gold would trade down with the Japanese yen moving up firmly against the dollar.  With that in mind, we will attribute today’s downside to technical selling in the futures’ markets having to do with profit taking on recent strength, a situation which could render the downside temporary.  Most of the selling came during European trading hours.  Gold has staged a minor recovery since U.S. markets opened.

Chart of the Day
As you can see, the dollar and gold trade inversely against one another.  The question becomes “Will current Federal Reserve interest rate policies, and the attitude of the Trump administration with respect to the dollar, lend themselves to a weaker dollar in international markets?”  If you believe the answer to that question is “Yes”, then you might want to proceed to the post immediately below. . . .

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Where to buy gold in today’s complicated precious metals marketplace

Let’s say that you have determined that the right side of the chart above represents the beginning of a trend and that gold and silver look like solid alternatives for the future.

What next?

Well, you might then consider how to go about choosing a gold firm with whom you can safely make purchases and subsequently sales.  If that is the case, you might take interest in a page here at USAGOLD that gets a considerable amount of attention among searchers trying to choose a gold firm.  It is aptly titled ––

How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

–– and it is a Question & Answer session with Michael J. Kosares, author of  The ABCs of Gold Investing – How To Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold and the founder of USAGOLD.

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands, before the damage is detected. At the page linked above, you will find some brief but valuable guidelines to help you choose the right gold and silver company. It might be the most important decision you will make on the road to becoming a gold and silver owner.

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold starts year on a positive note, fourth straight week of gains

LATE REPORT

Gold backtracked a bit today finishing down $3.12 at $1319.25. All in all, though, it was a respectable first week of the year for the yellow metal as it posted a $16.35 gain.  Similarly, silver traded sideways today but finished the week up 27¢ at $17.19. It was the fourth straight week of gains.

As we go into the weekend, one piece of news surfaced of more than average interest to gold owners:  The U.S. trade deficit was up 3.2% at $50.5 billion, the biggest gap in six years.  Coming after a year of declining value for the dollar, it suggests room for further downside in 2018 and, for gold, a good reason to strengthen.

Quote of the Day
“I recall an offstage debate David Rosenberg (GluskinSheff), David Zervos (Leucadia Asset Management), and I had in Florida two or three years ago. They were arguing that the economy would not weaken until we had an inverted yield curve. And my question was, quite simply, ‘How can we have an inverted yield curve, since the Fed is going to hold rates down almost forever because of the risk of their rising and thereby making the economy worse?’ And they assured me that the Fed would eventually get around to raising rates, probably by too much, and that we would then get an inverted yield curve and could start thinking about storm shelters. It looks like they were right.” –  John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics


News & Views went out to our current and prospective client lists Wednesday, so it is about as fresh off-the-shelf as it is going to get. The Gold Owner’s Guide to 2018, our lead article, is now available to the public as a result. If you would like to read what we have to say about the coming year, your interest is welcome.

You can sign-up for immediate access HERE.

And as a bonus, you will also receive our in-depth investor information packet as well.

 

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold’s blustery day

LATE REPORT

Gold had a blustery day.  Facing headwinds yesterday, the direction switched and gold suddenly had the wind at its back today. “In the 15 minutes ended 8:30, gold-futures volume spiked on the Comex in New York, with contracts equal to more than 2.8 million ounces of the metal changing hands. That’s almost eight-fold the 100-day average volume for that time of day,” reported Bloomberg.

The end result?  Gold was up $9.45 on the day at $1322.37 after suffering a $4.40 loss the day before, and after getting as low as $1305 in the overnight market.  Silver caught only a breeze in its sails today, up 10¢ at $17.18.  It got as low as $16.95 overnight.

Investors are buying the dips and last night it started in the European markets.

Quote of the Day
“In the real world, physical gold is in short supply. We believe that mine production has peaked out and is likely to decline for the next three to five years. Even an unexpected sharp price increase would not change the glide path of forward production because capital, environmental, and political headwinds are lined up against building new mines. Demand, notwithstanding minor year-to-year fluctuations, is on a steady growth path. Only the continual liquidation of above-ground inventories stored in London or other Western vaults over the past several years has prevented the mismatch between supply and demand from driving the gold price higher.” – John Hathaway, Tocqueville


News & Views went out to our current and prospective client lists yesterday, so it is about as fresh off-the-shelf as it is going to get.  The Gold Owner’s Guide to 2018, our lead article,  is now available to the public as a result. If you would like to read what we have to say about the coming year, your interest is welcome.

You can sign-up for immediate access HERE. 

And as a bonus,  you will also receive our in-depth investor information packet as well. 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold up $14 on the day and $75 from the December lows

LATE REPORT

Gold started the year on solid footing today up almost $14 and finishing at $1317.30. Silver also had a good start to the year, up 22¢ at $17.14. Using our FOREX table as a reference, as of tonight gold has traded higher twelve sessions in a row and $75 higher than the December low of $1241.90.

Much of what has driven the metal has to do with oversold conditions at the lows, but dollar weakness has also contributed to the positive psychology for the metal.  2017 was the dollar’s worst year since 2003 – a year at the very beginnings of gold’s secular bull market.  ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele hit on two themes as reasons for gold’s rise: “The dollar is the most important driver, and then real yields. The Fed is increasing rates, but the dollar’s not profiting.”

For a deeper understanding of what is driving the precious metals markets, please scroll immediately below.  There is good run of informative posts worth reviewing.  You might also want to try our January client letter featuring The Gold Owner’s Guide to 2018. (NEWS & VIEWS)

Quote of the Day
“We usually make major mistakes when we’re driven by emotions… especially when those emotions are fear, greed, or ego. . .We also make major mistakes when we totally misjudge (or fail to see) obvious risks. Yet risk assessment is far from rocket science:  If your government is bankrupt, it probably makes sense to diversify a bit. If assets are trading at record high valuations, it might make sense to consider taking some money off the table. Simple.” – Simon Black, Sovereign Man


If you haven’t visited our new Online Order Desk as yet, we invite you to take a test drive. We have been surprised by its instantaneous popularity and the number of clients who have already placed their first order.  One of its most useful features is that you can order anytime day or night and on weekends.  The state of the art system updates prices continuously, and we have a good selection of items available typical of most safe-haven precious portfolios. We invite your visit and your participation.

Great prices. Quick delivery. All the time.
Modern gold and silver bullion coins and bars
Historic fractional gold coins (bullion-related)
Historic U.S. gold coins

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold, Silver Predictions 2018

A major shift in sentiment will drive prices in the new year

by Michael J. Kosares

With such a solid end to 2017, it prompts the question what we might expect of gold in 2018. The most immediate question is whether or not it will pick up where it left off 2017 and continue its climb into the New Year, or fizzle and spend the year going sideways or worse, down. I have refrained from the perennial turn of the year prediction sweepstakes for a number years, but I will venture out on the limb this year to say a price in the mid-$1500s looks achievable in 2018.

Coming off two successive positive years, gold seems to be building toward something. Fizzling or dropping seem unlikely given 2017’s surprise performance and the general state of global equity markets – most of which seem to be overpriced, overloved and over the top. 2017 will be recorded as a transition year for gold; 2018, in my opinion, will go down as the year gold reasserted itself as a primal force in the global financial marketplace.

I base that opinion not so much on the fundamentals or a technical reading of the charts – or anything overly scientific for that matter, but rather on a gut feeling that comes with being in the gold business for 45 years. When all is said and done for 2018, after all the factors have been weighed and measured, I see sentiment – a thing that cannot be measured or weighed – emerging as the principal determinant for gold in 2018.

Investment capital is forever rummaging around for an opportunity and smart money will always find what is undervalued. That in a nutshell is what gold has going for it as we enter the new year. In 2017, we saw the first signs of a sentiment-driven, smart money migration to gold – a vanguard led by professional investors who govern institutional trading desks and manage multi-billion dollar hedge funds. In 2018, cash-flush private investors, absent the past year, will join with professional money in the pursuit of gold both in physical and paper forms. That should be enough, in my view, to generate a 20% improvement from December’s closing number and put the price in the $1550-$1560 range.

As for silver, I would not be surprised to see it trading over $22 at some point during the course of the new year – the equivalent of a 30% price increase. It has a history of outperforming gold on both the upside and the downside, and this time around is unlikely to be an exception. Silver will also continue to benefit from its new role as a safe-haven asset and junior partner to gold in the asset preservation business.


News & Views

Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis
on the Economy and Precious Metals

January, 2018 Edition
“The Gold Owner’s Guide to 2018”

We invite you to sign-up for FREE immediate access
+ e-mail notification on future publication dates.


Michael J. Kosares is the author of The ABCs of Gold Investing – How To Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold and the founder of USAGOLD.
Disclaimer – Opinions expressed on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset-preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here. (Please see our Risk Disclosure here.)

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Happy New Year

Wishing all a happy, prosperous and healthy 2018!
from the staff at USAGOLD

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Solid uptrend ends day, week, month, year on positive note

LATE REPORT

Gold finished the day, the week, the month and the year solidly in positive territory.

On the day, it was up $8.12 or .6%
On the week, it was up $28.35 or 1.02 %
On the  month, it was up $28.16 or 1.02%
And. . . last but not least, on the year it was up $152.00 or 13.2%.

Closing price:  $1302.90

Silver also finished the day, the week, the month and the year in positive territory, but not quite as spectacularly as did gold.

On the day, it was up 7¢ or .4%
On the week, it was up 55¢ or 3.4%
On the  month, it was up 54¢ or 3.2%
And. . . on the year, it was up $152.00 or 6.4%.

Closing price:  $16.92

For gold, it was the best year since 2011, the second straight year of posting gains and one that evolved despite a strong stock market, the constant threat of rising interest rates and, rightly or wrongly, an optimistic start to the Trump administration in terms of business and finance.

Quote of the Day
“Large speculators have made a record shift in their positioning for the last two weeks. In the latest week, they reduced their net longs by 66,000 contracts after a reduction of ~51,000 contracts the previous week. This group of traders is usually considered trend-followers. The extreme positing by this group may provide a clue to a changing trend.  In contrast to speculators, commercial traders and bullion banks have reduced their net short positions in gold. This group of traders is usually referred to as smart money. When this category hits the bottom in short interest, prices usually rise. It has been hailed as an indicator that gold prices could have an advantage as we enter 2018.” – Annie Gilroy, Market Realist


“It’s not a question of IF but WHEN”

An exclusive in-depth information packet on today’s gold market that will appeal to newcomers and market veterans alike

We invite you to register now for free immediate access.

We think you will appreciate this magazine-like update on the current gold market.
Open to ALL including existing clientele.
Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold cracks $1300 barrier, trading at $1305; silver cracks $17 barrier at $17.04

Rally brightens year-end for precious metals holders.  Onward to January. . . .and 2018!

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Star over gold market shines brightly as we near year-end

LATE REPORT

Gold closed up today for the fourth straight trading session at $1286.87 (+$4.12). Silver closed at $16.67 (+16¢).  In our last report before the holidays, we included this reference:

“In the December issue of News & Views, we pointed up the ghosts of Decembers past.  “In each of those years (2013 through 2016) December began poorly,” we wrote, “but appropriately by Christmas-time things began to look brighter. By the end of January in the following year, the star over the gold market shone still more brightly. . . ”  As of today, gold is up $23.43 from its December 11th low of $1241.90.  Silver is up 47¢ from its December 11 low of $15.69. It’s just five days ’til Christmas. . . . . .”

On that day (12/20/17) gold was trading in the vicinity of $1265 per ounce and silver was at $16.16.  So as the tally stands today, gold is up a robust $45 from the December 11th low and silver is up nearly $1.00. All in all, it’s been quite a seven-day run, Christmas-time has been made considerably brighter, and we go into the end of the year on an optimistic note.  Come January, we shall see if the star over the gold market will shine even more brightly, as it has the last two years.

Quote of the Day
“The very strong up-move of gold and silver in 2018 will take the investment world by surprise. Investors must pay heed and not be left behind.” – Egon von Greyerz, Matterhorn Asset Management, AG

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold, silver up solidly from December lows

LATE REPORT

Gold continued its push higher today finishing up $3.87 at $1265.33.  Silver finished up 6¢ at $16.16.  In the December issue of News & Views, we pointed up the ghosts of Decembers past.  “In each of those years (2013 through 2016) December began poorly,” we wrote, “but appropriately by Christmas-time things began to look brighter. By the end of January in the following year, the star over the gold market shone still more brightly. . . ”  As of today, gold is up $23.43 from its December 11th low of $1241.90.  Silver is up 47¢ from its December 11 low of $15.69. It’s just five days ’til Christmas. . . . . .

Quote of the Day
“The current combination of monetary debasement, populism and social unrest is neither a new phenomenon nor a coincidence. The late Roman empire shaved silver coins as it disintegrated; Henry VIII replaced silver coins with copper to pay for wars against France and Scotland; the British empire allowed double-digit inflation to erode bondholders’ wealth following the War of Independence; the Weimar Republic precipitated an inflation spiral. Comparing these examples to QE may sound extreme. Yet the biggest debasement in history may be the one we are experiencing now under the form of a $20tn central bank experiment, which is de facto depreciating money by boosting the price of all assets it can buy.” – Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments


Commonality is probably something you would not expect to find as an attribute of a brokerage firm, but when it comes to gold it is an important one. Having a similar world view goes a long way in establishing the common ground essential to a good working relationship. For over 40 years we have resolutely advocated owning gold for asset preservation purposes. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find USAGOLD a kindred spirit.

If the time has come for you to begin or extend your gold and silver ownership plans – if you are raising the red flag – we invite you contact us and find out why thousands have chosen us as their gold firm.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Rocket ride higher today

LATE REPORT

Gold accelerated higher today finishing up $6.91 at $1262.08.  Silver also climbed higher up 16¢ and back over the $16 level at $16.12.  Over the past several months, the waterfall drops have been balanced with rocket ship recoveries – the action over the past few days being another example of the rocket ride half of the equation.

One impetus for gold’s good showing today is something that was largely overlooked.  In an article headlined “Japan Tiptoes out of Radical Experiment in Monetary Policy,” the Wall Street Journal reported this morning that “Japan’s central bank has been the world’s poster child for radical monetary easing. Next year, its stance is poised to change.”  The Bank of Japan, says the Journal, “is likely to raise one or more of its key interest-rate targets in 2018.” Such a move would likely boost the yen against the dollar, something that might be enough to tip the scales in gold’s favor if  becomes a mainstay in 2018. Over the past several months,  gold and the yen have demonstrated a strong trading correlation often rising and falling in tandem.

Quote of the Day

“. . .[T]he decay of capitalism and free markets should raise concerns for anyone’s market thesis, bullish, bearish or agnostic. What stops a central bank from manipulating asset prices? When do they cross a line from marginal manipulation to absolute price control? Unfortunately, there are no concrete answers to these questions, but there are clues.

Global central banks’ post-financial crisis monetary policies have collectively been more aggressive than anything witnessed in modern financial history. Over the last ten years, the six largest central banks have printed unprecedented amounts of money to purchase approximately $14 trillion of financial assets. . . Before the financial crisis of 2008, the only central bank printing money of any consequence was the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC).” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice


If you haven’t visited our new Online Order Desk as yet, we invite you to take a test drive.

Great prices. Quick delivery.  All the time.
Modern gold and silver bullion coins and bars
Historic fractional gold coins (bullion-related)
Historic U.S. gold coins

[Access here]

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Another mysterious waterfall drop at the COMEX open, but a good week nevertheless

LATE REPORT

Gold finished up $2.50 today at $1255.13.  Silver finished up 10¢ at $15.97. We got another waterfall drop this morning precisely at the COMEX open (8:30 am) after (in response to?) a strong showing in the overnight market that took the price to the $1261.50 mark.  As we have pointed out consistently at this page, it is unlikely that this type of price action is the result of thousands of investors suddenly deciding to sell gold at exactly the same moment and then just as suddenly completely stopping . . .Take special note of the very large volume bars at the bottom of the chart.  Someone gave their computer a kick this morning.  Woke that sleeping dog.

Nevertheless. . . . . On the week:
Gold – Up $6.82 [$1248.31 ––>$1255.13]
Silver  – Up 13¢ [$15.84 ––> $15.97]

Quote[s] of the Day
“The South Sea Bubble took place in the 18th century in England. Sir Isaac Newton who was one of the great intellects in history lost his fortune in the South Sea Bubble. Strangely enough he invested, took profits, but then was lured back into the mania near the peak of the bubble and ended up losing his fortune. Without going into great detail the South Sea Company was a joint stock company created to consolidate and reduce the cost the national debt of England in the early 18th century. Before the bubble burst Sir Isaac Newton was famously quoted as saying ‘I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.’” – Bob Moriarity, 321Gold

“There have been 2 spin-offs (Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold) from Bitcoin and there are currently more than 1,300 different cryptocurrencies. So the idea that it’s limited is actually not correct. The long term chart of Bitcoin is curvilinear and just like at every other market top there are 100 reasons to buy (just as there are 100 reasons to sell at every market bottom). People are irrational. You don’t need to know anything about Bitcoin, you just need to understand human nature. This is a bubble and some of the brightest people alive fell for it.” – Bob Moriarity, 321Gold

(According to Convoy Investments, bitcoin achieved dubious distinction this week. It surpassed the 1619-1622  Dutch TulipMania as the biggest investment bubble in history.)


News & Views
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals
December, 2017

Here we are in December, chugging along toward the end of the year.  In the recently released December issue of News & Views, we concentrate on the gold market itself with a variety short but informative reports with the upcoming year in mind:

• On the ghosts of Decembers past (See reprint above)
• End-of-year gold and silver price predictions
• U.S. Mint makes a mint selling gold coins at a 25% mark-up
• Gold’s mysterious waterfall drops
• The gold/quality man’s suit ratio

• And a long run of “Notable Quotables” for your reading pleasure

If you are not already a subscriber, we invite you to sign-up for free immediate access to the December issue, as well as future issues of our newsletter.  We think you will enjoy the subject matter and gain from our take on recent events in the gold market.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Positioning in futures’ markets benefits current price, $1700 target

Kitco/Daniela Cambone/12-15-2017

“[Vince Lanci, founder of Connecticut-based Echobay Partners]said he could see the metal hitting $1,700 an ounce or higher in 2018, if correct, his forecast would be an over $450 rally from the current level of $1,250 an ounce. ‘On Tuesday we had a short covering rally. And Wednesday there was a 10,000 contract increase in December – that’s very unusual, that is an over 2.3% increase in open interest that comes on the heels of the day before, of people getting out – that is not common, but when it does happen it’s a sign that either a) shorts are getting stopped out or b) you have prop traders positioning themselves for asset allocators coming in,’ Lanci explained.”

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Commerzbank: We suspect the gold/silver ratio has peaked at 80

LATE REPORT

Gold gave back a portion of yesterday’s gains but by and large managed to hold its own today.  It finished at $1252.70, down $2.58.  Silver too gave back a bit finishing at $15.87, down 17¢ on the day.

One of the more interesting releases during the course of the day came from Germany’s Commerzbank. In its Bullion Weekly Technicals publication, analyst Karen Jones says “We suspect that the [Gold/Silver ratio] has peaked at 80.”  As for gold, using Elliot wave chart analysis, she projects a “5 wave” top for gold over $2000 per ounce and the bottom of the “4 wave” at $1168. Says Commerzbank on gold: “Our long term bias remains bullish.”

Quote of the Day
“The defining feature of the recent half-cycle is that monetary policy, regulatory policy and proposed tax policy have all very intentionally nourished the primitive, untethered, speculative Id of Wall Street. Freud called the Id ‘a cauldron full of seething excitations, striving to bring about the satisfaction of instinctual needs subject to the observance of the pleasure principle.’  That’s a reasonable description of monetary policy under Ben Bernanke, and much of what has unfolded under the current Administration.” – Jon Hussman, Hussman Funds

Commerzbank Bullion Weekly Technicals

RATIO SWAPS
If you agree with Commerzbank, perhaps swapping out of a gold position for silver at the 80:1 ratio makes financial sense. We invite you to call our Order Desk to review whether or not this makes sense for you (and/or your IRA). The premiums on silver coins and bars offer additional incentive at present.  We have a strong inventory position at advantageous prices we can pass along.

Order Desk
1-800-869-5115
Extension #100
6am-7pm weekdays

Outright purchase at our Online Order Desk
Link

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |

Gold bounces off December lows, up $11 on the day

LATE REPORT

Gold took the occasion of the Fed winding up its meeting to bounce off December’s lows and begin moving higher.  Gold finished up $11 today at $1255, but up $20 from its $1235 low water mark earlier in the day. Silver finished up 33¢ at $16.03 and 42¢ from its low on the day.  Both are up marginally in Asian markets.

Quote of the Day
“While the lack of liquidity and increased volatility may keep bitcoin interesting, it’s unlikely to convince investors looking for the kind of diversification and hedging benefits which gold has proven to possess over its long history.” – Jeffrey Currie and Michael Hinds, Goldman Sachs


If you haven’t visited our new Online Order Desk as yet, we invite you to take a test drive. If you have ordered from us in the past, you automatically qualify for online ordering privileges.

Great prices. Quick delivery. All the time.
Modern gold and silver bullion coins and bars
Historic fractional gold coins (bullion-related)
Historic U.S. gold coins

And now you can secure your order anytime day or night.

 

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news & opinion |