Notable Quotable

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“I have a theory that computers started to suck when dumb people started to use them. The same is also true of precious metals, which turned into a speculative football in 2011. Those geeks are gone, and only the die-hards are left — the shiny rocks passed from weak hands to strong hands.”

Jared Dillian
NewsMax Finance

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Notable Quotable

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“The current combination of monetary debasement, populism and social unrest is neither a new phenomenon nor a coincidence. The late Roman empire shaved silver coins as it disintegrated; Henry VIII replaced silver coins with copper to pay for wars against France and Scotland; the British empire allowed double-digit inflation to erode bondholders’ wealth following the War of Independence; the Weimar Republic precipitated an inflation spiral. Comparing these examples to QE may sound extreme. Yet the biggest debasement in history may be the one we are experiencing now under the form of a $20tn central bank experiment, which is de facto depreciating money by boosting the price of all assets it can buy.”

Alberto Gallo
Algebris Investments

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Notable Quotable

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“Gold can be best viewed as financial insurance. If you believe that you should own insurance, then you should also own gold. In terms of investment performance, gold will do best during times of international financial stress. In the past, the price of gold has moved exponentially higher during these periods as demand for the ultimate safe haven goes viral.”

Eric Lytikainen
Real Investment Advice

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Notable Quotable

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“. . .[I]f you go down the line of currencies around the world, you don’t find many attractive opportunities. And that’s why I say if the world were to give up on dollars and give up on euros, they’d probably go back to the old standby, which is gold. And I don’t mean by gold, government run gold standard, like we had in the late 19th century. That’s politically impossible. Governments will never be willing to subordinate their policies to the constraints of a hard commodity ever again… So how could gold make a revival as a sort of international money? Well, we don’t actually need a government run gold standard anymore…since people have always had confidence in gold as a long-term store of value, there’s no reason why it couldn’t play that role.”

Benn Steil
Director of International Economics
Council on Foreign Relations

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Notable Quotable

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“‘Experience keeps a dear school,’ said Ben Franklin, ‘but fools will learn in no other.’ The wise man remembers. The fool forgets. The wise man listens. The fool talks. He ignores both the living and the dead… the immemorial dead, whose whispers carry the distilled wisdom of history. No – this time is different, comes the fool’s eternal cry. The past is of no use to me.”

Brian Maher
Daily Reckoning

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Notable Quotable

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“In a lot of cultures, the word for money derives from the word for gold. In China, the ideogram for money is the ideogram for gold.”

Peter Oakley
Royal College of Arts (UK)

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Notable Quotable

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“We live in a technological golden age but in a monetary and fiscal dark age. While physicists discover the so-called God particle, governments print and borrow by the trillions. Science and technology may hurtle forward, but money and banking race backward.”

James Grant
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

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“I don’t believe life is going back to normal once we get to the end of the tunnel. There hasn’t been enough thought given on how behavior has been fundamentally altered from this past year of social distancing, travel restrictions and other curbs to movement, working from home.” (2/21/2021)

David Rosenberg
Rosenberg Research
themarketNZZ interview
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Notable Quotable

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“[C]learly going back to before even history human beings have been in love with gold. It just has something very particular about it, that copper or platinum or silver do not have. I feel that the gold price should bottom at about $1600 or thereabouts and it would be fine to start buying some. The reason being that the central banks of the world are still going to keep policies loose and governments in the western world are starting to engage in a lot of fiscal stimulus. Gold is a mysterious metal but it is in buy territory now.”

Mark Matthews
Julius Baer

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Notable Quotable

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“The logic that Modern Monetary Theory, for example, with its academic aura and blissful projections of deficits without tears (and money creation sansinflation) has slowly left the fringe of economics and entered its forefront as a sound, indeed ‘logical’ new path forward. Equally, ‘logical’ are the titles given to such popular policies as ‘Yield Curve Control’ or ‘Quantitative Easing,’ which, as many of us already understand, are just clever, even logically titled concepts masking the far more pernicious reality of extreme debt expansion supported by extreme money creation which leads logically to extreme currency debasement.”

Matthew Piepenberg
Gold Switzerland

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“For a variety of reasons it is likely that central banks that hold gold will tend to husband their reserves and that some with low levels of reserves will acquire more. Gold goes where the money is. After moving from the colonial world to Europe, to the United States, back to Europe it is now moving to the emerging economies of Asia. This is consistent with the view that central bank’s gold position signals economic power and prestige.”

James Steel
Hong Kong Shanghai Bank Corporation

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Notable Quotable

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“A lot of economic, market and bank supervisory theory is based on the premise that financial actors are largely rational. The crisis convinced me that they are not. It was not rational for very experienced financial leaders to make their companies hostage to short-term financing that was, in the final analysis, secured by the irrational assumption that house prices will always go up. It was not rational for Dick Fuld to reject offers because their terms offended his pride. It was not rational for money market fund investors to flee all money market funds just because one fund made a bad bet. It was not rational for some lenders, at the height of the crisis, to stop accepting even Treasuries as collateral. The crisis convinced me that greed, ego, fear, short-sightedness, group-think and other human foibles have at least as much, if not more, to do with financial behaviour as rational thinking does.”

Mike Silva
Former chief of staff to New York Fed president Tim Geithner during the 2008 financial crisis
(Speech to the LBMA, October 2018)

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Notable Quotable

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“If you want to protect your savings, gold, and silver are important assets to own, especially the physical asset, not just financial instruments. Equities only help while monetary policy continues to create asset inflation, but that can stop abruptly when money supply growth coincides with nominal GDP growth, as the multiple expansion effect dies. Sovereign bonds are not a solution as both the price and the yield make them the most expensive asset.”

Daniel Lacalle, PhD, economist

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“Gold has been around for thousands of years. Bitcoin has been around for 20 years.”

Dennis Gartman
Markets analyst

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Notable Quotable

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“Gold is scarce. It’s independent. It’s not anybody’s obligation. It’s not anybody’s liability. It’s not drawn on anybody. It doesn’t require anybody’s imprimatur to say whether it’s good, bad, or indifferent, or to refuse to pay. It is what it is, and it’s in your hand.”

Simon Mikhailovich
Tocqueville Funds

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Notable Quotable

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“We’re in very uncharted waters. Nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing now for a very extended period without some kind of trouble. We’re very near the edge of playing with fire.”

Charlie Munger
Berkshire Hathaway

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“One of the signs that you have entered into a mania phase is when people have trouble absorbing non-conforming information. ‘Confirmation bias’ is a psychological behavior where individuals disregard any information which conflicts with their current beliefs. While that bias has always been problematic for investors, in recent years, as individuals lock themselves inside their ‘social media echo chambers,’ it has worsened.”

Lance Roberts
Real Investment Advice

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“We believe 2020 marked the secular low point for inflation and interest rates. The 40-year bull market in bonds is over.’”

Michael Hartnett
Bank of America

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“Such moves would signal the beginning of the very last and most disruptive stage of the long-term debt cycle. So, watch central bankers’ actions – i.e., see if they increase their bond buying when interest rates are rising led by long-term interest rates and when the markets and economy are strong – because that action would signal that they are experiencing supply/demand problems. Also, watch the rates of change in the injections of these stimulants in relation to the effects they are having on the economy’s vigor because the more stimulants that are being applied per unit of growth, the less effective they are and the more serious the situation is. I know this all sounds crazy to you. It sounds pretty crazy to me, too. However, I have seen this confluence of circumstances leading to this sort of dynamic many times in my study of markets and economies over the last several hundred years and I experienced this dynamic myself (in 1970-80).”

Ray Dalio
Bridgewater Securities

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“George Bernard Shaw famously observed that he knew three types of economists. Those who were brilliantly right. Those who were brilliantly wrong. And those who taught. Judging by her tenure at the Federal Reserve’s helm and her advocacy now as Treasury Secretary of a super-sized budget stimulus package, it would seem that Janet Yellen falls into Mr. Shaw’s brilliantly wrong category. For this, the country is likely to pay dearly.”

Desmond Lachman, economist
1945

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