Author Archives: USAGOLD

COT– Gold specs edge bullish bets slightly higher this week


–– Now posted ––
Commitment of Traders reports for Tuesday, July 16, 2019
GOLD • SILVER • US DOLLAR INDEX

Commentary by Zac Storella, CountingPips

[LINK]


Posted in Announcements, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Gold specs edge bullish bets slightly higher this week

Through Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold specs edge bullish bets slightly higher this week

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week after a down week last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 245,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly rise of 738 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 244,763 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 3,430 contracts (to a weekly total of 309,535 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 2,692 contracts for the week (to a total of 64,034 contracts).

Gold Commercial Positions:

Large speculators edged their bullish bets higher after a pull back (-14,183 contracts) last week. The trend for bullish bets has been sharply higher since May 28th when the net positions had fallen to a total of +86,688 contracts. Since then, bullish bets have risen by a total of 158,813 contracts (a weekly average gain above +20,000 contracts) as positions have increased for six out of the past seven weeks to a total above +240,000 net contracts.

Gold Futures:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -277,408 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 1,008 contracts from the total net of -278,416 contracts reported the previous week.


Silver specs sharply boost bullish bets after 2 down weeks

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators sharply increased their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 37,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 16th. This was a weekly increase of 12,274 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,151 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 4,369 contracts (to a weekly total of 100,449 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -7,905 contracts for the week (to a total of 63,024 contracts).

Large speculators had decreased their bullish bets in the previous two weeks before this week’s rebound. The Silver speculative bets have been on a strong uptrend since June 4th that has taken the net position from bearish territory (-8,443 contracts) to a bullish position of more than +37,000 net contracts. The current standing is now at the highest level since February of this year.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -59,357 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -14,080 contracts from the total net of -45,277 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1567.80 which was an uptick of $53.10 from the previous close of $1514.70, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index speculators trimmed their net positions.

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators raised their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 27,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly boost of 4,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,417 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position going up by 2,982 contracts (to a weekly total of 36,479 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position which fell by -1,657 contracts (to a total of 9,423 contracts for the week).

The large speculators raised their bullish bets for the dollar index for a second straight week and for the third time in the past four weeks. This week’s gain was the highest one-week increase in almost a year (since July 24th of 2018).


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |

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NEWS &VIEWS
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals
Celebrating our 46th year in the gold business

July 2019

“There has been a dramatic change in sentiment.” – Adrian Day


Summer doldrums turned upside down
Gold’s June upturn separates 2019 from the pack

The summer months historically present a buying opportunity in precious metals as illustrated in the charts shown below. In the past, there has been a clear change of direction in sentiment annually from the 185-195 day mark – midway in the year. So far this summer, though, gold has broken with tradition by turning in a strong June, as shown in the third chart. With a range of economic and geopolitical issues preying on investor psychology – particularly at the funds and institutions that have fueled the upside this year – the summer of 2019 might go down as one of those years when we bypass the annual slowdown. Last year, gold hit a low of $1178 in mid-August. By December 31st, it was trading at the $1280 mark.

[LINK]
For the rest of this month’s edition


If you think you could benefit from a concise review of the latest news, analysis and opinion on the gold market from a variety of expert sources, then News & Views is the newsletter for you. Since the early 1990s, we have offered it free-of-charge as a monthly service to our regular clientele and as an incentive to prospective clients. By subscribing, you will automatically receive future editions and occasional in-depth Special Reports by e-mail.

FREE SUBSCRIPTION!


Charts courtesy of GoldChartsRUs/Nick Laird

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Posted in Announcements, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

The Investment of Kings and the King of Investments

From the small investor just starting out to the high-net-worth individual hedging a multi-million dollar portfolio, we have helped many thousands add precious metals to their holdings in our more than 45 years in the gold business – safely, economically and with the investor’s goals in mind.

No matter the size of your investment kingdom, we can help you!


ORDER DESK: 1-800-869-5115 x100/orderdesk@usagold.com

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Important! –  Gold’s Century: While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed

Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

USAGOLD Special Report

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Gold’s Century
While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed
by Michael J. Kosares

Over the last nearly two decades, gold has been in a secular bull market. Many believe that we are now on the verge of a second leg in its ascent. This article reveals nine little known and surprising facts about gold’s price performance since 2001 and tells why we are living in gold’s century, not the stock market’s.

–– Full Article ––

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Posted in Announcements, Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Premium Bulletin Board, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Short and Sweet

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Gold in six easy lessons

1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already made.

2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.

3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.

4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.

5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.

6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!

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Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

Scorecard: 38 45 48 53 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

“We were first time gold investors. In search for information we came across their web site, which is excellent. When we contacted them, Jonathan Kosares lead us through the process. He provided information, suggested gold coins, but did not direct how we invested. He is always available to answer questions. The service has been excellent. Their business practices have been outstanding. We have absolute faith the company. They are the best investment company we have ever dealt with.”

John G.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Favorite web pages

Live Daily Newsletter

“I cannot stress enough how important it is for everybody to really take it upon themselves to read as much as they can and try and understand what’s going on. Don’t rely on the mainstream media, don’t rely on short soundbite information, really dig into this and seek out the people who can help you understand it because it’s incredibly important right now.” – Grant Williams, RealVision-TV, Matterhorn interview with Lars Schall

We couldn’t agree with Grant Williams more.  Here at USAGOLD, we have always geared our content to what we believe our clientele would like to know or learn. Not the general public. Not Wall Street. Not the search engines. Not our colleagues in the field.  But our clientele.  The centerpiece to that endeavor is the page you are now reading.

We invite your visits.  We encourage your bookmark.

USAGOLD’s
Live Daily Newsletter
Up-to-the-minute gold market news, opinion and analysis as it happens.

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Posted in Favorite web pages, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but valuable guidelines to help
you choose the right gold and silver company.

It might be the most important decision you will make on the road to becoming a gold and silver owner.


To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD
Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.
Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

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The Power of Gold Diversification
“Although it is needed in good times,
it can be vital when times are difficult.”

Enlarged version at link

This short article begins with reference to a speech by Sir Peter Tapsell on the merits of gold ownership before the House of Commons in 1999. The occasion was Britain’s proposed sale of over half of its gold reserves at under $300 per ounce. It ends by comparing the performance of two investment portfolios from the time of that speech to present.  One portfolio – the more successful of the two – included a diversification with gold; the other did not. Sir Tapsell, who passed away this past August, lived to see his defense of gold vindicated. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.

[LINK]

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Posted in Announcements, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Short and Sweet

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For gold . . .
It is not a question of if, but when

The lesson is one as old as the gold market itself:  The best time to buy is when the market is quiet – a strategy that requires both discipline and conviction.  As an old friend and client used to say (he passed away years ago):  “It is not a question of if, but when.” He accumulated a large hoard of the metal in the 1990s and early 2000s between $300 and $600 per ounce and lived to see his prediction come true.  His estate though was the ultimate beneficiary of his wisdom. He was not one to sell gold once he had acquired it.  We chatted regularly on the phone back then and I told him that I had used the story just told in one of my newsletters.  He was in his late 80s at the time. “Tell them,” he said resolutely, “that I bought my first ounce of gold at $35.”

The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it.”
– Thomas Bailey Aldrich –

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Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Gold specs bullish bets take breather after strong 5-week run

Through Tuesday, July 9, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold specs bullish bets take breather after strong 5-week run

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week following a strong runup in recent weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 244,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly decline of -14,183 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 258,946 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -6,597 contracts (to a weekly total of 306,105 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) advanced by 7,586 contracts for the week (to a total of 61,342 contracts).

Large speculator bets had been surging for five straight weeks to the highest bullish level since September of 2016 before cooling off this week. The strong gains in gold bets started on June 4th and pushed on through July 2nd with a total gain of +172,258 contracts in just that 5-week time period.

The current standing remains very bullish and is above the +200,000 net contract level for a fourth straight week which is the longest streak above +200,000 since January of 2018.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -278,416 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 8,406 contracts from the total net of -286,822 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1400.50 which was a decrease of $-7.50 from the previous close of $1408.00, according to unofficial market data.


Silver specs pull back on bullish bets for 2nd week after strong gains

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week after a strong streak of gains in recent weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 25,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly lowering of -5,304 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,455 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -3,659 contracts (to a weekly total of 96,080 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 1,645 contracts for the week (to a total of 70,929 contracts).

The large speculators cooled their bullish positions in the past two weeks. Previously, Silver speculator positions had risen very sharply for four straight weeks from June 4th to June 25th, gaining each week by over +10,000 net contracts (by a total of +52,974 contracts) and turning from an overall net bearish position to net bullish.

Despite these couple of pullbacks in the speculator sentiment, the current standing remains in bullish territory for a fifth straight week.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -45,277 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 6,786 contracts from the total net of -52,063 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1514.70 which was a drop of $-9.10 from the previous close of $1523.80, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index specs lift their bullish bets

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators raised their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 27,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly boost of 4,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,417 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position going up by 2,982 contracts (to a weekly total of 36,479 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position which fell by -1,657 contracts (to a total of 9,423 contracts for the week).

The large speculators raised their bullish bets for the dollar index for a second straight week and for the third time in the past four weeks. This week’s gain was the highest one-week increase in almost a year (since July 24th of 2018).


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |

USAGOLD Special Report

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Bridging the ‘Fourth Turning’ with Gold
It began in 2008.  It is scheduled to end in 2028.
What happens between now and then?

“Howe designates 2008 as the start date for the current fourth turning. Since turnings typically last 20-23 years, it will end sometime between 2028 and 2031. That puts us about midway through the cycle. At the moment, if the politicians, Wall Street and press accounts on the status of the economy are to be believed, the good times have arrived. For many Americans, though, that arrival has some pretty dark clouds hanging over it – the deep political divisions, the escalating trade wars, the emerging nation debt and currency crisis, the overvalued stock market, the threat of rising interest rates – and that is just a sampling of fourth-turning strata that worries global investors. The nation despite the rosy outlook is a bit unnerved by it all. For his part, Howe, who saw it coming, believes things could get much worse before before they get better.”

–– Full Article ––

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Posted in Announcements, Today's top gold news and opinion, USAGOLD Special Report | Tagged |

Short and Sweet

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Thinking in big numbers

Big numbers do not register with most people. Thinking in millions is difficult. Billions are a major challenge, trillions nearly impossible. The reason for this, says Wall Street Journal columnist Jo Craven McGinty, is that big numbers are usually offered in isolation without the benefit of comparison – numbers without an appropriate anchor, so to speak. People need some sort of measuring stick to give the numbers meaning. She recently offered some interesting tactics for making big numbers meaningful. Here is one of them:

“[T]hink of it [big numbers],” she says, “in terms of time, like Richard Panek, a professor at Goddard College in Vermont and a Guggenheim fellow in science writing. There are 1 million seconds in roughly 11½ days. There are 1 billion seconds in around 31 years. And there are 1 trillion seconds in around 31,000 years. Someone who doesn’t grasp these differences in magnitude is also likely to be clueless when it comes to assessing the impact of chopping $2.7 billion from a $1.068 trillion budget.* It’s less than 1% of the total—the proverbial rounding error.”

*The proposed outlay for discretionay spending submitted by the Trump administration for the 2019 fiscal year budget

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Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Short and Sweet

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Gold suitably undervalued

“The price of a fine suit of men’s clothes,” says the U.S. Geological Survey, “can be used to show anyone who is not familiar with the price history of gold just how very cheap gold is today. With an ounce of gold, a man could buy a fine suit of clothes in the time of Shakespeare, in that of Beethoven and Jefferson, and in the depression of the 1930s.”

So where do we stand in 2019 with respect to The Quality Man’s Attire-Gold Ratio? At Brooks Brothers a top quality, off-the-rack suit ranges between $2625 and $3122 without a vest. Brooks Brothers does carry a less expensive suit at about $1250, but the ratio requires a top (not lower or middle) quality man’s suit. On London’s Saville Row – the standard for quality men’s attire – a hand-tailored men’s suit ranges in price from £3500 ($4620) at Huntsman to £4950 ($6534) at Kilgour (as published in Gentleman’s Quarterly). By any of those measures, gold at $1400 per ounce is suitably undervalued.

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Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

The USAGOLD Website – A guiding light for current and would-be clientele since 1997

Welcome newcomers!

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.  If you would like to witness that piece of technology in action, you can see it here at the WaybackMachine.  (Don’t laugh.)

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1996), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 22-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning (When you visit the WayBackMachine, take special note of the number of visitors registered on our counter!) we have grown to over 600,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is good place to start.  For a full site outline including links and page descriptions. . . . . .

We invite you to visit our
Table of Contents

Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

“Before investing in gold I really didn’t have a clue about what or how much to invest in. I came across the USAGOLD website and found an excellent resource for both first time and seasoned buyers. My representative has always provided me with useful and trustworthy analysis related to the markets and trends that has further informed my purchase decisions. Transactions are timely and handled with a high degree of professionalism and integrity. I cannot recommend this company highly enough.” – Y.O., 5-14-2018

Scorecard: 38 45 48 54 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

“In June, 2009, I decided to make gold ownership an essential part of my investment portfolio. Based on the recommendation of financial professionals, and because I liked that they had been in business for so long, I contacted USAGOLD. After a thorough review of my financial goals and budget constraints, they provided me with a comprehensive set of suggestions as to which gold coins, and what quantities, I should consider. That advice perfectly addressed my investment needs and I have been a customer ever since. Over my years with USAGOLD, I have completed several transactions, both buying and selling gold. Each one was handled with the highest integrity, and the advice I received was always reliable, based on their extensive awareness of current and projected market conditions for gold. I recommend them without reservation. Do not make a decision regarding gold ownership without contacting them.” – Jack D.

Scorecard: 38 43 48 53 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold specs increase bullish bets to highest since 2016

Through Tuesday, July 2, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.



Silver specs slightly edge bullish bets lower after 4 strong weeks of gains

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators edged their bullish net positions slightly lower in the Silver futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to July 4th holiday).

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 30,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 2nd. This was a weekly decline of -110 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,565 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 2,166 contracts (to a weekly total of 99,739 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 2,276 contracts for the week (to a total of 69,284 contracts).

The large speculator positions had gained very sharply for four straight weeks and by a total of +52,974 contracts over that period before last week’s slight pause. Silver’s recent bullish sentiment has spurred a dramatic turnaround from being bearish on June 4th with -8,443 net contracts.

The current standing for Silver speculative bets remains above the +30,000 net contract threshold for a second straight week, marking the first time since March bets have been this bullish.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -52,063 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 1,489 contracts from the total net of -53,552 contracts reported the previous week

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1523.80 which was a drop of $-6.20 from the previous close of $1530.00, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index speculator bets edge up

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators slightly edged their net positions higher in the US Dollar Index futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to July 4th holiday).

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 22,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 2nd. This was a weekly bump of 51 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,366 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position falling by -830 contracts (to a weekly total of 33,497 contracts) while the gross bearish position dipped by -881 contracts for the week (to a total of 11,080 contracts) .

Large speculator positions were virtually unchanged this week following a drop by over -6,000 contracts in the previous week. The current US Dollar Index standing remains bullish but is near the low end of the range of its recent bullish strength.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |

Short and Sweet

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Gold mine production by country

Divergent paths among the major global producers tell an important tale


When you take in the table to the left, it inspires little beyond a shrug until you consider the policies toward gold of the countries involved. China, for example, is the world’s top gold producer, but its production is essentially sequestered, i.e., it stays in the country and winds up at the central bank as part of its monetary reserves. Russia, the world’s third largest producer, also channels its production into central bank reserves. Thus, 23% (700+ tonnes) of the world’s gold production in 2017 did not see the light of day on international markets. Of the top-ten producers that still make their production available to the rest of the world, production is level for two – the United States and Australia. Of the three countries experiencing production growth – Canada, Russia
and China – only one, Canada, makes its production available in international markets.

In short, the world is a different place now than it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis in terms of gold production. Should physical demand soar once again as it did in the 2009-2013 period, we could get the same price response we did then. Even as it is, substantially less metal is reaching the marketplace at a time when central banks have become net buyers of the metal and investor demand, though presently in a lull, is generally on the rise.

The trends now favor “strong-handed” long-term gold investors holding for asset preservation purposes and capable of weathering the market’s ups and downs. As for the official sector, the trend toward building gold reserves is likely to continue. More and more emerging countries are likely to see diversification as in their best interest while established states are likely to hold close the gold reserves they already own.

Map courtesy of the World Gold Council/Gold Hub

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Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

It was 2005 when I first started to learn about the possibility of investing in gold for a secure future. Seeking on the internet a company to engage with for this purpose I chose USAGOLD Centennial Precious Metals because they offered education for first time investors including a book I could purchase and read through at my pace. All my communications with USAGOLD felt like I was talking with caring family members. This helped me so very much being a divorced woman and turning 60 years old. Since that wonderful beginning I have had two times a need to cash in some of my coins. Once in 2009 for a down payment to buy a house and recently to buy a new car because my oldie but goodie died on the highway. The administrative process to do this is not a familiar everyday task. But, with the help of Jonathan K****** this happened in a timely way meeting the needs of all concerned. I am in the process tomorrow of offering to a friend the reference information for USAGOLD. It is unknown if my friends needs are possible to be filled at USAGOLD, but I know for sure she will receive quality guidance filled with knowledge and truth.

Judith M.

Scorecard: 38 45 48 53 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Short and Sweet

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The inverted yield curve as a harbinger
of higher gold prices

(Grey vertical bars indicate recessions.)

During the course of the past several weeks, we have heard much about the inverted yield curve in three-month and ten-year Treasuries as a harbinger of recessions. Missed in the press reports is the fact that it has also been a harbinger of higher gold prices. In the chart above, please note the upward surges in the price of gold in the five-year periods following the two most recent yield inversions in 2000 and 2006.  The first occurred with gold trading in the $300 range.  It subsequently rose to the $600-650 level in 2006.  The second occurred with gold priced in the $600-650 range.  It subsequently rose to over $1900 per ounce in 2011 – its all-time high.

“Ominously,” writes Robin Wigglesworth and Joe Rennison in a recent Financial Times editorial, “the US yield curve has now inverted once again, with the 10-year Treasury yield on March 22 dipping below the three-month T-bill yield for the first time since 2007. Combined with the length of the post-crisis expansion — this summer it will become the longest growth spurt in US history — and deteriorating economic data, the inverted yield curve has stirred fears that the countdown to the next downturn has already begun.”

Peter Fisher, formerly head of fixed income at BlackRock and currently a professor at Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, puts it succinctly in that same Financial Times editorial.  “The mistake,” he says, “is to think it [an inverted yield curve] is a predictor of recessions. I think it causes recessions.”  The rise in the price of gold following the two prior instances of yield inversion, it is now well understood, came in response to aggressive central bank monetary easing and the sudden emergence of credit-related systemic risks.


Published originally in the April 2019 edition of News & Views – Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. You can sign up for e-mail notification of future newsletter releases HERE.

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Favorite web pages

Gold Trading Hours

Whenever the gold market gets active, we have a large increase in visitors at our Gold Trading Hours page.  Investors want to see which markets – Asian, European or American – are the focal point for price movement.  They also want to know when a particular market is going to open or close in areas where gold might experience an influx of buyer or seller interest.  That is why we designed this popular page with market hours and a live clock showing the local time in that particular market and all the other major gold markets.  Gold Trading Hours is one of the quiet pages at USAGOLD that garners significant global interest particularly when the market is moving or breaking news warrants more than average interest. We also invite you to return here regularly – to this Live Daily Newsletter page – for up-to-the-minute gold market news, opinion and analysis as it happens.

We invite your visit.  We encourage your bookmark.

USAGOLD’s
Gold Trading Hours
London – New York – Sydney – Hong Kong – Shanghai – Tokyo – Zurich

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Silver specs strongly boost bullish bets to 16-week high

Through Tuesday, June 22, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold specs raise bullish bets sharply for 4th week

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators raised their bullish net positions higher in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 236,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 25th. This was a weekly boost of 32,231 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204,323 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 23,475 contracts (to a weekly total of 298,108 contracts) and combined with the gross bearish position (shorts) that fell by -8,756 contracts for the week (to a total of 61,554 contracts).

Spec Sentiment Strengthens

The gold large speculator position rose sharply for a fourth straight week and has risen by a total of just about +150,000 net contracts in these last four weeks. The gold speculator position had recently been as low as +37,395 contracts on April 23rd (just 10 weeks ago) before seeing a bullish surge in sentiment and shooting to higher levels over these past 10 weeks.

Gold bets are above the +200,000 contract level for a second straight week and are now at the highest level since September 9th of 2017.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -260,150 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -36,295 contracts from the total net of -223,855 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1418.70 which was an increase of $68.00 from the previous close of $1350.70, according to unofficial market data.


Silver specs strongly boost bullish bets to 16-week high

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators continued to bet in favor of Silver in the futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 30,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 25th. This was a weekly gain of 16,049 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,516 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 4,298 contracts (to a weekly total of 97,573 contracts) that combined with the gross bearish position (shorts) that dropped by -11,751 contracts for the week (to a total of 67,008 contracts).

Silver had recently fallen into bearish territory in late April and through the month of May with positions marking a low of -22,409 contracts on May 28th. Since then sentiment has turned around sharply in the past month.

Silver large speculator positions continued to jump higher this week and the net position increased by over +10,000 contracts for a fourth consecutive week. This week’s rise by more than +16,000 contracts is the largest one-week gain since December 31st.

The rising speculator sentiment has pushed the current standing for the Silver bullish position to the highest level since March 5th when bets totaled +32,521 contracts.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -53,552 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -19,065 contracts from the total net of -34,487 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1530.00 which was a rise of $30.70 from the previous close of $1499.30, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index Speculators trim bullish bets

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 22,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 25th. This was a weekly decline of -6,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,549 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position decreasing by -5,992 contracts (to a weekly total of 34,327 contracts) in addition to the gross bearish position which saw rose by 191 contracts for the week (to a total of 11,961 contracts).

Large currency speculators cut their bets of the US Dollar Index for the third time in the past four weeks and by the largest one-week decline since March. The overall trend for speculator bets has been steadily lower in recent months since reaching a high of +40,513 contracts on January 13th.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |

Short and Sweet

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Why the U.S. needs to encourage
Americans to hold gold

We have always believed that citizen ownership of physical gold is in the national best interest, not just the best interest of its accumulators.  In the event of a worldwide economic breakdown or a realignment of the global monetary system, it would be good for the country to have a storehouse of gold held by the populace.  China encourages citizen gold ownership for precisely that reason.

“With a growing number of countries encouraging their central banks and citizens to acquire gold,” writes The Federalists Sean Fieler, “it is increasingly reasonable to assume that gold will be part of the world’s monetary future, not just its past. The U.S. Treasury should embrace policies that will attract more of the world’s gold to America and better position our citizens and our nation for whatever the monetary future may hold.”

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Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

I made my first purchase of gold about 5 years ago and it was with USAGOLD. They answered all my questions and allowed me to buy a larger amount than they usually allow for a first time buyer. They trusted me and it worked out fine for both parties. Their BBB rating was a big factor in me trusting them. Other firms looked pretty sketchy and I didn’t want to spend that much money on a shaky firm. Since then I have purchased coins quite a few times from USAGOLD and have never been disappointed with the quality of the coins. The whole staff is very professional and courteous and are not pushy at all. They treat you as a friend, not a number. They remember me as soon as I tell them my name. That is a nice feeling. I will continue to buy from them and I highly recommend them.

Jim W.

Scorecard: 38 45 48 53 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

A telephone call from an old client and friend

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‘Gold shone with the placid certainty of received tradition’

“I had the happy occasion recently of receiving a telephone call from an old client and friend – a physician safely retired near the sea and alongside one of the South’s oldest golf clubs. It was good to hear from this student of the markets – one of life’s steady and thoughtful practitioners.  Back at the turn of the century, Doc foresaw much of what would happen economically in the United States and purchased what he considered enough gold to see him through it.”

[For the rest of Doc’s story we invite you to visit this link.]

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Posted in Announcements, ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Short and Sweet

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Is Buffett wrong about gold?

“While I very often agree with Warren Buffett’s views regarding, for example, the level of cash in portfolio or migration from growth to value stocks,” says Independent Trader for ETF Trends, “I absolutely can not agree with what he wrote in the letter to shareholders about gold, once again showing how badly it performs in comparison to the US shares.” The article goes on from there to do a good job of debunking Buffett’s latest attack on gold  – one of many he has conducted over the years – while drawing on cyclical analysis to lay out a solid longer-term future for the metal. It concludes with the opinion that Buffett’s stance on gold is “part of a deal with the establishment of the United States.”

That could be true, but it could also be little more than an old professional bias on Buffett’s part going back decades combined with a classic talking of one’s book.  We counter with a single chart that refutes his arguments at a glance. It tells the story of gold and stocks in the times in which we live – the historically distinct fiat money era that began in 1971 – not some other timeline that carries little relationship to the present.  To make a very long story short, gold has appreciated 3,399% since January 1971. Stocks have appreciated 2,884%.  What’s more stocks are bumping against all time highs while gold looks like it might be recovering from cyclical lows.

Chart courtesy of MacroTrends

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Recent client testimonial

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“Thank you! It has been a pleasure doing business with your Company! You’ve treated the small investor (me) just like you would a millionaire. Best wishes, and I hope I can make some purchases in the future.” – L.W., Savannah, Georgia

We also treat millionaires . . . well. . . like millionaires – whether they admit to being millionaires or not [smile].

We receive unsolicited testimonials like L.W.’s routinely. Please see our Client Testimonials page for more feedback, and be sure to visit the Better Business Bureau for even more in the way of FIVE-STAR reviews.  Don’t do business with any gold company until you have checked it out.

Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Ask the Governor about the future of money

Bank of England/Mark Carney

“For example, EMEs’ share of global activity is now 60%, but their share of global financial assets lags behind at around one-third. And half of international trade is currently invoiced in US dollars, even though the US has a much lower 10% share of international trade. As the world re-orders, this disconnect between the real and financial is likely to reduce, and in the process other reserve currencies may emerge. In the first instance, I would expect these will be existing national currencies, such as the RMB. However, history suggests these transitions will not happen overnight. The US economy overtook Britain’s in the second half of the 19th century, but it took until the 1920s before it became a dominant currency in international trade.”

USAGOLD note:  Remarkably candid and detailed assessment from the Governor of the Bank of England throughout this Q&A with the public.  He covers a wide-range of topics and states what he has to say without the usual central bank-speak we get as a matter of course. His comments on China’s yuan though will take many by surprise. He does not see much of future for cryptocurrencies, at one point stating that they “currently are not promising even as a form of money let alone as a global currency.” In response to a question about banking the IMF’s SDR with gold, he makes the following comment:

“It would be undesirable to base the value of a global currency on gold. Under the Bretton Woods system – the international system of linking exchange rates to the US dollar which was pegged to gold existing from 1944 to 1971 – there was a fundamental tension in that the global supply of gold did not grow in line with the global demand for money. This tension peaked in the early 1970s and the system collapsed. Since then, major economies have moved towards a system of floating exchange rates, and the basis for the SDR’s valuation has also been switched from gold to the more stable arrangement of valuation based on a basket of currencies.”

Such thinking underscores the flaw in the SDR as a store of value, and why it will never replace gold as the primary asset of last resort on central bank balance sheets.  The great mistake made by the Bank of England, or better put the British government, was to encourage and sponsor the sale of a good portion of UK’s gold reserve at the turn of the century.  In the throes of Brexit, there are many within Britain, no doubt, who would rather see that gold sitting on the BoE’s balance sheet rather than someone else’s.


Repost from 1-11-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |