Author Archives: USAGOLD

Gold specs bullish bets rebound

Through Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 282,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 17th. This was a weekly rise of 12,874 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 269,725 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 7,397 contracts (to a weekly total of 341,511 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -5,477 contracts for the week (to a total of 58,912 contracts).

Gold speculators boosted their bullish bets this week following a sharp selloff in positions last week (-30,822 contracts). Two weeks ago, bullish bets had risen to over +300,000 net contracts for the first time in approximately three years, dating back to September of 2016. This week’s gain doesn’t quite bring the position back to that level but keeps the net position above the +250,000 net contract threshold for a ninth consecutive week.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -318,399 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -12,788 contracts from the total net of -305,611 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1513.40 which was a rise of $14.20 from the previous close of $1499.20, according to unofficial market data.


Silver specs lowered their bullish bets for 2nd week

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators trimmed their net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 55,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 17th. This was a weekly lowering of -4,253 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,231 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -5,788 contracts (to a weekly total of 94,625 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) also declined but by a smaller amount of -1,535 contracts for the week (to a total of 38,647 contracts).

Silver speculators slightly reduced their bullish bets for a second week following three straight weeks of increases previously. The current speculator position remains highly bullish and above the +50,000 net contract level for a fourth consecutive week.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -77,547 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 7,221 contracts from the total net of -84,768 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1814.00 which was a decline of $-4.60 from the previous close of $1818.60, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index specs raise bullish bets to highest since April 2017

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators sharply increased their net bullish positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets again this week while New Zealand dollar traders pushed bets to a record bearish level, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 41,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 17th. This was a weekly gain of 9,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,032 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by just 143 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,626 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped sharply by -9,599 contracts on the week (to a total of 7,852 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators boosted net positions by the largest one-week amount since June 19th of 2018, which is a span of sixty-five weeks. Dollar bets have now gained for ten out of the past twelve weeks and this week’s jump puts the current dollar standing at the most bullish level since April 25th of 2017.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |

Thinking about buying gold and silver?

Gold in six easy lessons

1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already have.

2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.

3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.

4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.

5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.

6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!


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NEWS &VIEWS
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals
Celebrating our 46th year in the gold business

Immediate access to the recently-released September issue.

If you think you could benefit from a concise review of the latest news, analysis, and opinion on the gold market from a variety of expert sources, then News & Views is the newsletter for you. Since the early 1990s, we have offered it free-of-charge as a monthly service to our regular clientele and as an incentive to prospective clients. By subscribing, you will automatically receive future editions and occasional in-depth Special Reports by e-mail.

FREE SUBSCRIPTION!

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Favorite web pages

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This page catalogs price predictions on gold and silver prices from top pundits and prognosticators – a casting of the runes that begins in January and is updated regularly throughout the year as new additions surface.

[LINK]

We invite your bookmark.  We invite your return visit.

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The Investment of Kings and the King of Investments

From the small investor just starting out to the high-net-worth individual hedging a multi-million dollar portfolio, we have helped many thousands add precious metals to their holdings in our more than 45 years in the gold business – safely, economically and with the investor’s goals in mind.

No matter the size of your investment kingdom, we can help you!


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Important! –  Gold’s Century: While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed

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Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

 

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

Scorecard: 38 45 48 55 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

“We have been purchasing Gold And Silver from USA Gold for about two years now The staff is extremely knowledgeable , coin quality is extraordinary, delivery is fast / dependable. I read there newsletter everyday. Actually several times a day – the links in the articles offer a wealth of information that have helped me navigate / stay on course through the ups and downs of Gold / Silver ownership.”

Frank R.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Gold coins, hoofs found in 2,000 year old Chinese tomb

“Chinese archaeologists. . . discovered 75 gold coins and hoof-shaped ingots in an aristocrat’s tomb that dates back to the Western Han Dynasty (206 BC – 24 AD). The gold objects — 25 gold hoofs and 50 very large gold coins — are the largest single batch of gold items ever found in a Han Dynasty tomb. They were unearthed from the tomb of the first ‘Haihunhou’ (Marquis of Haihun) in east China’s Jiangxi Province. The coins weigh about 250 grams each, while the hoofs’ weights vary from 40 to 250 grams, said Yang Jun, who leads the excavation team.” – Xinhuanet/11-17-2015

USAGOLD note: These gold artifacts were found along with a portrait of Confucius, perhaps the oldest known. Wisdom and gold make easy company. Confucius once said something that has current applicability:  “In a country well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of.”  Or at the very least, well-hedged . . . . . . . .

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The Power of Gold Diversification
“Although it is needed in good times, it can be vital when times are difficult.”

Enlarged version at link

This short article begins with reference to a speech by Sir Peter Tapsell on the merits of gold ownership before the House of Commons in 1999. The occasion was Britain’s proposed sale of over half of its gold reserves at under $300 per ounce. It ends by comparing the performance of two investment portfolios from the time of that speech to present.  One portfolio – the more successful of the two – included a diversification with gold; the other did not. Sir Tapsell, who passed away this last August, lived to see his defense of gold vindicated. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.

[LINK]


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Copernicus on the debasement of money

“Although there are countless scourges which in general debilitate kingdoms, principalities, and republics, the four most important (in my judgment) are dissension, [abnormal] mortality, barren soil, and debasement of the currency. The first three are so obvious that nobody is unaware of their existence. But the fourth, which concerns money, is taken into account by few persons and only the most perspicacious. For it undermines states, not by a single attack all at once, but gradually and in a certain covert manner.” – Copernicus, Essay on the Coinage of Money (1526)

Few know that Copernicus applied his genius to the insidious effects of currency debasement. The ground-breaking essay linked above probably influenced both John Maynard Keynes (See below) and Thomas Gresham of “bad money drives out good” fame. Supply Side Blog’s Ralph Benko says Copernicus’ essay has been translated into English several times yet those translations remained difficult to obtain for students of the monetary arts and sciences.  It has remained mostly the property of elite historians.” Above we link Edward Rousen’s translation that you might keep company with the knowledgeable elite.

It cost 8¢ to mail a one-ounce letter in 1973 as indicated by the commemorative Copernicus stamp shown above.  It costs 55¢ today – an illustration of his assertion that currency debasement “undermines states, not by a single attack all at once, but gradually and in a certain covert manner.”  The post office increased the cost of mailing a letter by 5¢ – to 55¢ – beginning in 2019.


“By a continuing process of inflation governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.” – John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of Peace (1919)

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Favorite web pages

Live Daily Newsletter
(The page you are now visiting)

“I cannot stress enough how important it is for everybody to really take it upon themselves to read as much as they can and try and understand what’s going on. Don’t rely on the mainstream media, don’t rely on short soundbite information, really dig into this and seek out the people who can help you understand it because it’s incredibly important right now.” – Grant Williams, RealVision-TV, Matterhorn interview with Lars Schall

We couldn’t agree with Grant Williams more.  Here at USAGOLD, we have always geared our content to what we believe our clientele would like to know or learn. Not the general public. Not Wall Street. Not the search engines. Not our colleagues in the field.  But our clientele.  The centerpiece to that endeavor is the page you are now reading.

We invite your visits.  We encourage your bookmark.

USAGOLD’s
Live Daily Newsletter
Up-to-the-minute gold market news, opinion and analysis as it happens.

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Why the U.S. needs to encourage
Americans to hold gold

We have always believed that citizen ownership of physical gold is in the national best interest, not just the best interest of its accumulators.  In the event of a worldwide economic breakdown or a realignment of the global monetary system, it would be good for the country to have a storehouse of gold held by the populace.  China encourages citizen gold ownership for precisely that reason.

“With a growing number of countries encouraging their central banks and citizens to acquire gold,” writes The Federalists Sean Fieler, “it is increasingly reasonable to assume that gold will be part of the world’s monetary future, not just its past. The U.S. Treasury should embrace policies that will attract more of the world’s gold to America and better position our citizens and our nation for whatever the monetary future may hold.”

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USAGOLD Special Report

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Gold’s Century
While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed
by Michael J. Kosares

Over the last nearly two decades, gold has been in a secular bull market. Many believe that we are now on the verge of a second leg in its ascent. This article reveals nine little known and surprising facts about gold’s price performance since 2001 and tells why we are living in gold’s century, not the stock market’s.

–– Full Article ––


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Is Buffett wrong about gold?

“While I very often agree with Warren Buffett’s views regarding, for example, the level of cash in portfolio or migration from growth to value stocks,” says Independent Trader for ETF Trends, “I absolutely can not agree with what he wrote in the letter to shareholders about gold, once again showing how badly it performs in comparison to the US shares.” The article goes on from there to do a good job of debunking Buffett’s latest attack on gold  – one of many he has conducted over the years – while drawing on cyclical analysis to lay out a solid longer-term future for the metal. It concludes with the opinion that Buffett’s stance on gold is “part of a deal with the establishment of the United States.”

That could be true, but it could also be little more than an old professional bias on Buffett’s part going back decades combined with a classic talking of one’s book.  We counter with a single chart that refutes his arguments at a glance. It tells the story of gold and stocks in the times in which we live – the historically distinct fiat money era that began in 1971 – not some other timeline that carries little relationship to the present.  To make a very long story short, gold has appreciated 3,399% since January 1971. Stocks have appreciated 2,884%.  What’s more stocks are bumping against all time highs while gold looks like it might be in the early stages of a new bull market run.

Chart courtesy of MacroTrends

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Recent client testimonial

“Thank you! It has been a pleasure doing business with your Company! You’ve treated the small investor (me) just like you would a millionaire. Best wishes, and I hope I can make some purchases in the future.” – L.W., Savannah, Georgia

We also treat millionaires . . . well. . . like millionaires – whether they admit to being millionaires or not [smile].

We receive unsolicited testimonials like L.W.’s routinely. Please see our Client Testimonials page for more feedback, and be sure to visit the Better Business Bureau for even more in the way of FIVE-STAR reviews.  Don’t do business with any gold company until you have checked it out.


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Important! – Gold’s Century: While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed

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What you need to know before you launch your gold and silver IRA

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“A customer of mine who is 55 years old recently asked if it was not too late for him to get into precious metals. The answer is no—it is not too late to invest in gold and make a profit at any age. Quite the contrary, with the market showing the early signs of a correction, it is, in my humble opinion, a perfect time to invest in precious metals.” – Oliver Garret, Forbes

Time to diversify?
How to hedge market uncertainty in your
retirement plan with gold and silver

As the ultimate asset preservation vehicles, gold and silver are also important retirement investments especially in these precarious times. Find safe harbor –– and some retirement peace of mind.

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD serving gold and silver investors since 1973

We have helped hundreds of investors include precious metals in
their IRA and other retirement plans. We can help you.


Coins & bullion since 1973

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Short and Sweet

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Nine lessons from prosperous investors

We first introduced our readers to these nine lessons all the way back in 1999. They were passed along to us by the legendary commodity market analyst R.E. McMaster, formerly editor of The Reaper newsletter. The original source for the nine lessons was a highly regarded money manager who handled accounts for wealthy Greek and Mexican merchant families.

1. It is easier to make a fortune than keep it.

2. Intelligence is an inadequate substitute for wisdom. Wisdom fears, respects the unknown and fosters humility. Intelligence can lead to self-destructive arrogance and ultimate failure.

3. Risk must have premium, and we must understand it well.

4. There is no order. There is no formula. There is no equation that works all of the time. It works just long enough to fool just a few more of us just a little longer.

5. What we fail to remember is that a paper gain is just that. Paper. Worth nothing. Not until we say sell, and not until we get cash. Anything less is just that.

6. When the Bass Brothers in Texas write a check for real money, their money, to buy 25% of the Freeport McMoran Gold Series II, we take notice. When the Fidelity Magellan Fund buys a fifty-million in Dell computer, we yawn. So, should you. It is other people’s money.

7. Slick advertising budgets, powerful computers and few slabs of marble do not, by themselves, make a great financial institution.

8. Never invest in anything you do not feel comfortable with or understand well.

9. When a thousand people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.

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Gold bull bets highest since September 2016

Through Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold specs increase their bullish bets to highest since Sept. 2016

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 300,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 3rd. This was a weekly rise of 3,709 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 296,838 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 2,776 contracts (to a weekly total of 365,385 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) slid by -933 contracts for the week (to a total of 64,838 contracts).

Gold speculators continue to show their positive sentiment and pushed the net bullish position above the +300,000 net contract level for the first time since September 6th of 2016, almost exactly three years ago.

Gold speculative bullish positions have now gained for eleven weeks out of the past fourteen (from June 4th to present) which has added a total of +213,859 contracts to the overall bullish standing.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -337,741 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -3,935 contracts from the total net of -333,806 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1555.90 which was a gain of $4.10 from the previous close of $1551.80, according to unofficial market data

 


Silver specs push their bullish bets higher for a 3rd week

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 62,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 3rd. This was a weekly rise of 2,273 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,852 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 1,489 contracts (to a weekly total of 104,977 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -784 contracts for the week (to a total of 42,852 contracts).

Silver speculators were back at adding to their bullish bets this week for a third straight week and after a few down weeks on August 6th and 13th. Spec positions have now risen by a total of over +22,000 net contracts in the past three weeks and the overall position sits at the highest bullish level since July 30th.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -84,678 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -2,997 contracts from the total net of -81,681 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1923.70 which was a rise of $93.90 from the previous close of $1829.80, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index speculators trimmed their net positions

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators increased their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 31,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 3rd. This was a weekly advance of 1,839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,897 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 6,308 contracts (to a weekly total of 54,410 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lesser gain of 4,469 contracts on the week (to a total of 22,674 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculative positions rose for a second straight week and for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks as dollar sentiment remains strong. This week’s bullishness bounced the dollar’s net bullish position back above the +30,000 net contract level for the first time since August 6th. Dollar bullish positions have now stayed above the +22,000 net position level for fifty-nine consecutive weeks.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |

Short and Sweet

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Gold mine production by country

Divergent paths among the major global producers tell an important tale


When you take in the table to the left, it inspires little beyond a shrug until you consider the policies toward gold of the countries involved. China, for example, is the world’s top gold producer, but its production is essentially sequestered, i.e., it stays in the country and winds up at the central bank as part of its monetary reserves. Russia, the world’s third largest producer, also channels its production into central bank reserves. Thus, 23% (700+ tonnes) of the world’s gold production in 2017 did not see the light of day on international markets. Of the top-ten producers that still make their production available to the rest of the world, production is level for two – the United States and Australia. Of the three countries experiencing production growth – Canada, Russia
and China – only one, Canada, makes its production available in international markets.

In short, the world is a different place now than it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis in terms of gold production. Should physical demand soar once again as it did in the 2009-2013 period, we could get the same price response we did then. Even as it is, substantially less metal is reaching the marketplace at a time when central banks have become net buyers of the metal and investor demand, though presently in a lull, is generally on the rise.

The trends now favor “strong-handed” long-term gold investors holding for asset preservation purposes and capable of weathering the market’s ups and downs. As for the official sector, the trend toward building gold reserves is likely to continue. More and more emerging countries are likely to see diversification as in their best interest while established states are likely to hold close the gold reserves they already own.

Map courtesy of the World Gold Council/Gold Hub

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Short and Sweet

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For gold . . .
It is not a question of if, but when

The lesson is one as old as the gold market itself:  The best time to buy is when the market is quiet – a strategy that requires both discipline and conviction.  As an old friend and client used to say (he passed away years ago):  “It is not a question of if, but when.” He accumulated a large hoard of the metal in the 1990s and early 2000s between $300 and $600 per ounce and lived to see his prediction come true.  His estate though was the ultimate beneficiary of his wisdom. He was not one to sell gold once he had acquired it.  We chatted regularly on the phone back then and I told him that I had used the story just told in one of my newsletters.  He was in his late 80s at the time. “Tell them,” he said resolutely, “that I bought my first ounce of gold at $35.”

The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it.”
– Thomas Bailey Aldrich –

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Gold in the Attic

Every once in a while we rummage around USAGOLD’s creaky old attic and dust-off a golden vignette from our storied past. The following vignette first appeared in our monthly client letter in April 2015. It is titled “Caveat Venditor” (Let the seller beware) and it tells why the prudent investor might think twice about parting with his or her gold even if a small investment had grown to be worth millions. Though hyperinflation, or inflation at any level,  seems a distant threat at the moment, this nugget of wisdom is one to file for future reference.

Caveat Venditor

Gillian Tett (Financial Times): “Do you think that gold is currently a good investment?”

Alan Greenspan (private citizen): “Yes. Remember what we’re looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.” – Council on Foreign Relations meeting, November, 2014

Let the seller beware! The German citizen/investor who put away a few rolls of 20 mark gold coins (.2304 tr ozs. shown below) in 1918 would have done so at 119 marks per ounce. By early 1920 the previous rapid inflation had suddenly German money given way to deflation. Had that gold owner decided to cash in on gold’s significant gains thinking runaway inflation was over, a 100,000 mark investment would have made him or her a millionaire.

The glow, however, would have quickly worn off. By late 1921 the runaway inflation had resurfaced but now with a vengeance. Gold shot to 4,000 marks per ounce. By mid-1922 gold reached 10,000 marks per ounce and the wholesale price index went from 13 to 70. By late 1922, the roof caved in. Gold traded at 134,000 marks per ounce. In January, 1923, it cracked 1,000,000 marks per ounce. By midyear, it broke the 100 million marks per ounce barrier and at the peak of the hyper-inflationary breakdown, it sold for over 100 billion marks per ounce.

The individual who thought he or she had the cat by the tail and cashed-in his or her golden chips during the 1920’s deflation became a millionaire. In short order though, that millionaire became a pauper as wave after wave of hyperinflation washed over the German economy. One moral from this somewhat frightening tale is that becoming a millionaire or even a billionaire on one’s gold holdings was inconsequential. Another is not to give up one’s hedge until there is ample evidence that it is no longer needed. Momentary nominal profits can be illusory.

Caveat venditor!


Trailer note – From The Nightmare German Inflation by Scientific Market Analysis: “Those who held funds in dollars, pounds or other stable currencies, or in gold, saved their capital. The government set up rigid exchange controls as the inflation proceeded. As usual under such conditions, a black market flourished. The ones who fared best were the small minority who had the foresight to exchange marks into foreign money or gold very early, before new laws made this difficult and before the mark lost too much value.”

The currency image (top left) illustrates the rapid depreciation in Germany’s paper money with single notes going from a 20 mark value in 1918 (the paper equivalent of one 20 mark gold coin) to a 20 million mark value in 1924. Fast forward to 2019, nearly one hundred years later, and we find that all currencies are being deliberately devalued against one another in an on-going global currency war. Hedging one currency by buying another is no longer a logical long-term option. Only gold stands outside the fray. Perhaps that is why former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan recently said, “Remember what we’re looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.”

Posted in Gold in the Attic, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Short and Sweet

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Will 2019 be the year of the big breakout for gold?

“In each of the last three years, gold has gotten off to a strong start only to fizzle as the year moved along.  Will 2019 be the year gold finally breaks the pattern? A good many investors, fund managers and analysts think that 2019 might very well be the year when gold breaks the restraints and pushes to higher ground.  One of those is Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro in New York who CNBC’s Melissa Lee refers to as “the chart master.”  In a recent interview with Lee, Worth referred to a rendition of the long-term chart below saying that there is “a well-defined set-up and a lot of tension.” He says that combination is going to resolve to the upside – “a breakout to all-time highs.” With respect to gold’s relationship to the dollar, Worth says “Gold’s got its own momentum now. . .It is all setting-up for higher gold prices and trouble for equities, trouble for the economy.”

Repost from 6-5-2019

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Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Silver specs sharply boost bullish bets for 2nd week

Through Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold speculators trimmed their bullish bets slightly this week

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators decreased their existing bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 296,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 27th. This was a weekly decline of -3,155 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,993 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 10,315 contracts (to a weekly total of 362,609 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) increased by a larger amount of 13,470 contracts for the week (to a total of 65,771 contracts).

Gold positions edged very slightly lower for the second time in the past three weeks. Despite the pull back, speculator sentiment has been on fire for gold over the past few months as bullish bets have risen by a total of +210,150 contracts just since June 4th. The current bullish standing (+296,838 contracts) remains very close to the +300,000 net contract level which has not been reached since September 6th of 2016 (a span of 155 weeks).

Gold Commercial Positions:

he commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -333,806 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 2,444 contracts from the total net of -336,250 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1551.80 which was an increase of $36.10 from the previous close of $1515.70, according to unofficial market data.


Silver speculators sharply boosted their bullish bets for 2nd week

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators once again raised their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 59,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 27th. This was a weekly gain of 13,138 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,714 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 7,501 contracts (to a weekly total of 103,488 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) lowering by -5,637 contracts for the week (to a total of 43,636 contracts).

Silver speculator bets rose strongly for a second consecutive week after having fallen in the previous two weeks. Speculative positions have now gained in nine out of the past thirteen weeks as sentiment continues to remain strong. The silver net position has advanced from a total of -8,443 contracts on June 4th to a total of +59,852 contracts this week which is a gain of +68,295 contracts over the past thirteen weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -81,681 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -10,818 contracts from the total net of -70,863 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1829.80 which was an uptick of $115.00 from the previous close of $1714.80, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index speculators nudged bullish bets up

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 29,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 27th. This was a weekly lift of 398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,499 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) declining by -961 contracts (to a weekly total of 48,102 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a larger decline by -1,359 contracts on the week (to a total of 18,205 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators inched up their bullish bets this week following two down weeks. Overall, dollar index speculative positions have risen for seven out of the past ten weeks and maintain their bullish standing right around the +30,000 net contract level.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |

How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but valuable guidelines to help
you choose the right gold and silver company.

It might be the most important decision you will make on the road to becoming a gold and silver owner.


To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD
Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.
Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

USAGOLD Special Report

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Bridging the ‘Fourth Turning’ with Gold
It began in 2008.  It is scheduled to end in 2028.
What happens between now and then?

“Howe designates 2008 as the start date for the current fourth turning. Since turnings typically last 20-23 years, it will end sometime between 2028 and 2031. That puts us about midway through the cycle. At the moment, if the politicians, Wall Street and press accounts on the status of the economy are to be believed, the good times have arrived. For many Americans, though, that arrival has some pretty dark clouds hanging over it – the deep political divisions, the escalating trade wars, the emerging nation debt and currency crisis, the overvalued stock market, the threat of rising interest rates – and that is just a sampling of fourth-turning strata that worries global investors. The nation despite the rosy outlook is a bit unnerved by it all. For his part, Howe, who saw it coming, believes things could get much worse before before they get better.”

–– Full Article ––

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Posted in Announcements, Today's top gold news and opinion, USAGOLD Special Report | Tagged |

USAGOLD – Quality service and pricing since 1973

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USAGOLD ranks among the most reputable gold companies in the United States with several thousand clients and multi-millions in annual revenue. Founded in the 1970s and still family-owned, we are one of the oldest and most respected names in the gold industry. Our unblemished, zero-complaints record and solid reviews with the Better Business Bureau testify to the exceptional customer service and professional excellence which sets us apart from the competition.

USAGOLD specializes in gold and silver coins and bullion delivered to our client’s safekeeping. For over 45 years, we have resolutely advocated owning precious metals for asset preservation purposes rather than speculation. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold and silver owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find our firm a kindred spirit.

When it comes time to pursue your first (or next) purchase, we invite you to learn first-hand why so many have chosen USAGOLD as their precious metals firm.

Call or drop us an e-mail.

1-800-869-5115
Ext#100
orderdesk@usagold.com


To end right, start right.

Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Favorite web pages

Gold Trading Hours

Whenever the gold market gets active, we have a large increase in visitors at our Gold Trading Hours page.  Investors want to see which markets – Asian, European or American – are the focal point for price movement.  They also want to know when a particular market is going to open or close in areas where gold might experience an influx of buyer or seller interest.  That is why we designed this popular page with market hours and a live clock showing the local time in that particular market and all the other major gold markets.  Gold Trading Hours is one of the quiet pages at USAGOLD that garners significant global interest particularly when the market is moving or breaking news warrants more than average interest. We also invite you to return here regularly – to this Live Daily Newsletter page – for up-to-the-minute gold market news, opinion and analysis as it happens.

We invite your visit.  We encourage your bookmark.

USAGOLD’s
Gold Trading Hours
London – New York – Sydney – Hong Kong – Shanghai – Tokyo – Zurich

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Posted in Favorite web pages, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Short and Sweet

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Summer doldrums turned upside down
Gold’s June upturn separates 2019 from the pack

The summer months historically present a buying opportunity in precious metals as illustrated in the charts shown below. In the past, there has been a clear change of direction in sentiment annually from the 185-195 day mark – midway in the year. So far this summer, though, gold has broken with tradition by turning in a strong June, as shown in the third chart.

“Gold trading usually gives pundits, dealers, and investors a break at some point over the summer,” observes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. “But like 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2016…this year is proving no time to take your eye off the market. And if 2019 is going to see an old skool summer lull in gold trading, it won’t feel much like a discount up at these prices.”

With a range of economic and geopolitical issues preying on investor psychology – particularly at the funds and institutions that have fueled the upside this year – the summer of 2019 might go down as one of those years when we bypass the annual slowdown. Last year, gold hit a low of $1178 in mid-August. By December 31st, it was trading at the $1280 mark.


Charts courtesy of GoldChartsRUs/Nick Laird

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Featured in the July edition of News & Views (7-10-2019)
Much more at the link

Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Short and Sweet

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Gold suitably undervalued

“The price of a fine suit of men’s clothes,” says the U.S. Geological Survey, “can be used to show anyone who is not familiar with the price history of gold just how very cheap gold is today. With an ounce of gold, a man could buy a fine suit of clothes in the time of Shakespeare, in that of Beethoven and Jefferson, and in the depression of the 1930s.”

So where do we stand in 2019 with respect to The Quality Man’s Attire-Gold Ratio? At Brooks Brothers a top quality, off-the-rack suit ranges between $2625 and $3122 without a vest. Brooks Brothers does carry a less expensive suit at about $1250, but the ratio requires a top (not lower or middle) quality man’s suit. On London’s Saville Row – the standard for quality men’s attire – a hand-tailored men’s suit ranges in price from £3500 ($4620) at Huntsman to £4950 ($6534) at Kilgour (as published in Gentleman’s Quarterly). By any of those measures, gold at just over $1500 per ounce is suitably undervalued.

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Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Announcement to Visitors to our Premium Member’s Only Bulletin Board – August 26, 2019

We set out with the goal of creating a page that offered unique content that wouldn’t otherwise be available at other pages on our site. A couple of months at it has exposed the difficulty identifying content uniquely suited to this posting page that isn’t simultaneously equally important for our standard daily blog and all visitors to our site. As such, we will no longer be updating this page and will instead focus on keeping our clients and visitors current with all things precious metals at our standard blog page, linked here. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Posted in Premium Bulletin Board |

Gold speculators raise bullish bets to highest since 2016

Through Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold speculators raise bullish bets to highest since 2016

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators continued to boost their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 299,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 20th. This was a weekly lift of 9,903 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 290,090 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 6,071 contracts (to a weekly total of 352,294 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by -3,832 contracts for the week (to a total of 52,301 contracts).

Gold speculators added to their bullish bets following a slightly down week last week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The trend for gold positions has been sharply higher since the beginning of June as bullish bets have increased ten times out of the twelve weeks since June 4th and by a total of +213,305 contracts.

This week’s gain brings the overall net position within a whisker of the +300,000 contract level that has not been breached since September 6th of 2016 (a span of 154 weeks) when positions totaled +307,860 net contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -336,250 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -12,523 contracts from the total net of -323,727 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1515.70 which was an increase of $1.60 from the previous close of $1514.10, according to unofficial market data.


Silver speculators boost bullish bets after 2 down weeks

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators advanced their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 46,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 20th. This was a weekly rise of 7,445 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,269 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -1,533 contracts (to a weekly total of 95,987 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -8,978 contracts for the week (to a total of 49,273 contracts).

Silver Commercial Positions:

Silver speculator positions rebounded this week after falling sharply in the previous two weeks by a total of -25,028 contracts.

The speculator positions had been on fire in the past few months as sentiment for gold and silver started surging very sharply in June. From June 6th to July 30th, silver speculator bets gained for seven out of the nine weeks and rose by a total of +86,706 net contracts.

This week’s rise brings the net position back over the +45,000 net contract level for the fourth time out of the last five weeks.

Silver Futures:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -70,863 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -5,630 contracts from the total net of -65,233 contracts reported the previous week.


US Dollar Index speculators pare bullish bets for 2nd week

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators reduced their bullish positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while raising their Japanese yen positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 29,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 20th. This was a weekly reduction of -343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,842 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 1,189 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,063 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which rose by 1,532 contracts on the week (to a total of 19,564 contracts).

USD Index speculator positions fell slightly for a second straight week following six straight weeks of gains. Despite the recent declines, the overall net position continues to be strongly bullish and just under the +30,000 net contract level. The USD Index position, in fact, has remained remarkably consistent for over a year now as bullish positions have been above the +20,000 net contract level for fifty-seven consecutive weeks dating back to July of 2018.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Posted in COT Reports |