Author Archives: USAGOLD

Graphic to link the calendar of reports and events for the week ahead

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Favorite web pages

Gold Trading Hours

Map of world gold colored with www.usagold.com - Members World Wide Web since 1997

Whenever the gold market gets active, we have a large increase in visitors at our Gold Trading Hours page. Investors want to see which markets – Asian, European or American – are the focal point for price movement. They also want to know when a particular market is going to open or close in areas where gold might experience an influx of buyer or seller interest. That is why we designed this popular page with market hours and a live clock showing the local time in that particular market and all the other major gold markets. Gold Trading Hours is one of the quiet pages at USAGOLD that garners significant global interest. We also invite you to return here regularly – to this Live Daily Newsletter page – for up-to-the-minute gold market news, opinion and analysis as it happens.

We invite your visit.  We encourage your bookmark.

USAGOLD’s
Gold Trading Hours
London – New York – Sydney – Hong Kong – Shanghai – Tokyo – Zurich

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Thinking about buying gold and silver?


Gold in six easy lessons

1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already have.

2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.

3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.

4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.

5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.

6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!


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Short and Sweet
Novice precious metals owners must decide where they stand on this important issue

visualization of gold as a stratgic move in portfolio planning

“Precious metals are and always have been the ultimate insurance,” says Pro Aurum’s Robert Hartman in an interview with Claudio Grass. “They provide protection both against state failures and against mistakes in the monetary policy of the central banks. Every investor who looks into the history books sees that both have happened over and over again in the past centuries. From that perspective, investing in physical gold and silver is a common-sense precaution and a necessary part of any wealth preservation plan. Investors and ordinary savers ignore this at their peril and the failure to include precious metals in one’s portfolio is pure negligence.”

There are essentially two broad schools of thought alive and well in the gold market. The first holds that crisis is around the corner and, as a result, precious metals should be owned to profit from the event. The second holds that crisis is a permanent fixture in the market dynamic and that the portfolio should always include precious metals as the ultimate safe haven. The first buyer sees precious metals as investment products, i.e., buy now and sell later when the time is right. The second sees gold and silver, like Hartmann, as insurance products to be held for the long run. Some combine the two, allocating one part of their precious metals portfolio for trading purposes and another as a permanent, or semi-permanent, store of value. The novice precious metals owner must decide where he or she stands in this regard because it determines, in turn, which products to include in the portfolio and to what degree.

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Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

 

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Short and Sweet

headline for nine lessons from prosperous investors

We first introduced our readers to these nine lessons all the way back in 1999. They were passed along to us by the legendary commodity market analyst R.E. McMaster, formerly editor of The Reaper newsletter. The original source for the nine lessons was a highly regarded money manager who handled accounts for wealthy Greek and Mexican merchant families.

1. It is easier to make a fortune than keep it.

2. Intelligence is an inadequate substitute for wisdom. Wisdom fears, respects the unknown and fosters humility. Intelligence can lead to self-destructive arrogance and ultimate failure.

3. Risk must have premium, and we must understand it well.

4. There is no order. There is no formula. There is no equation that works all of the time. It works just long enough to fool just a few more of us just a little longer.

5. What we fail to remember is that a paper gain is just that. Paper. Worth nothing. Not until we say sell, and not until we get cash. Anything less is just that.

6. When the Bass Brothers in Texas write a check for real money, their money, to buy 25% of the Freeport McMoran Gold Series II, we take notice. When the Fidelity Magellan Fund buys a fifty-million in Dell computer, we yawn. So, should you. It is other people’s money.

7. Slick advertising budgets, powerful computers and few slabs of marble do not, by themselves, make a great financial institution.

8.  Never invest in anything you do not feel comfortable with or understand well.

9.  When a thousand people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.

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Is the wisdom of a portfolio hedge in your future
?

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Short & Sweet
Beware the Black Swan
‘There’s no clean way out.’

photograph of two black swans on pond with many white swans

“The clan over the years’ matured and turned unruly,” writes Credit Bubble Bulletin’s Doug Noland. “Myriad severe development issues are increasingly on full display. The halcyon sandbox days are over for good, replaced by a confluence of insecurity, greed, and now constant infighting. To be sure, rich Uncle’s years of lavish generosity fostered a bunch of spoiled malcontents. The lax benefactor has come to realize he can no longer finance all the dysfunction and is desperate to craft a plan for exiting the relationship without unleashing mayhem. Some have structured their lives to stand on their own, while others’ very survival is at stake. All have developed bad habits, with some succumbing to deadly addictions. One camp says, ‘it’s time to get on with our lives without being further warped by all this charity money.’ Another is threatening to do harm to themselves. There’s no clean way out. Uncle fears calamity and harbors serious regret.”

Heightening the sense of impending danger, we would add our own observation that financial markets are full of eddies, crosscurrents, and strong undertows driven by excessive leverage and machine-based trading wherever the Fed might care to look. Today, the potential madness of machines is just as big a worry as the madness of crowds – their programming subject to the same frailties as their human creators. In fact, with algorithmic trading accounting for 60%-73% of U.S. equity trading, an argument could be made that machines now comprise the crowd.

“Since these automated strategies typically use artificial intelligence programs to analyze and react to market momentum, rather than economic fundamentals per se,” writes Gillian Tett points in a recent Financial Times editorial, “this tends to exacerbate a herding effect, not just in commodity markets but in any asset class. And since the institutions selling these derivatives bets need to hedge their own risks with other instruments, extreme robo-herding creates distortions across market niches that can suddenly unravel, causing wild volatility.” To make a very long story short, credit markets have a history of reacting unpredictably, and sometimes violently, to rising rates: Beware the Black Swan …… 

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Gold is the investment for All Seasons––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Looking to prepare your portfolio for whatever uncertainty lies ahead?
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Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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Short & Sweet
Waiting for the Fed

photgraph of a rostrum awaiting the arrival of a spokesman for the Federal Reserve

“The biggest buyers in bond markets are poised to become sellers,” writes Tommy Stubbington and Kate Duguid in a recent Financial Times article, “as central banks that have bought trillions of dollars of debt since the 2008 financial crisis start trimming their vast portfolios.” If the Fed follows through with its quantitative tightening program, it will overturn a monetary policy regime in place for thirteen years. One London trader quoted in that FT article says the bond market is now trading in “cloud cuckoo land” – that investors have not in any way priced the impact of quantitative tightening. So what will be the outcome when QT-Day actually arrives? When push comes to shove, will the Fed become truly hawkish (as roughly half the financial world now believes), or will it, in reality, remain dovish (as the other half of the financial now believes)?

Either way, Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar sees a bullish outcome for gold and silver. “Today’s CPI was hotter than expected and February’s print could be as well but again, it’s to what extent does it slow from here that should matter for markets,” he says in a Bloomberg update posted recently at YahooFinance. “I’ll use this as another opportunity to express my bullishness on gold and silver. From here, either the Fed will tighten too much and growth slows that results in the Fed backtracking, and that will be bullish for gold or the Fed will still be too slow in tightening, real rates will remain firmly negative and that will be positive for gold.”

As shown in the chart below, there is some historical precedent for Boockvar’s bullish “backtracking” scenario. The Fed attempted to pare its bond holdings in late 2017. By 2019, though, it was forced to abandon the program when severe liquidity problems threatened a credit market meltdown – a situation not dissimilar to the challenges the Fed faces today. Gold held its own in the early stages of the program but sold off about 15% as it gained momentum. Then, after the Fed indicated it might change direction in on QT early 2019, it soared 25% and climbed to all-time highs ($2050 per ounce) after the Fed finally halted the liquidations altogether and resumed quantitative easing.

Gold and the Fed Balance Sheet
(2016-2021)
overlay line chart showing gold and Fed balance with notations for quantitative tightening and quantitative easing
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Perhaps the more likely scenario, though, is Boockvar’s second alternative – a Fed that purposefully remains behind the inflation curve by raising rates and liquidating its bond holdings cautiously – very cautiously. In short, what if, in the end, the Fed talks like a hawk but walks like a dove by keeping real rates deeply in the negative? The point about Waiting for Godot, Samuel Beckett’s oft-referenced play, is that Godot never shows up. What if the world is waiting for a Fed that never shows up? You do not need to be a Paul Volcker to appreciate the implications. 

(As published in the March 2022 edition of News & Views – Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals)

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Short and Sweet
‘No one questions its value. . .’

image of a Croesus Lydia stater“No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the credit worthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.” – Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve


Image courtesy of the British Museum Collection/Lydia, croesid, ca 550 BC


Are you ready to add unquestioned value to your investment portfolio?
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USAGOLD
Quality service & portfolio guidance since 1973

photo of stacks of gold coins American Eagles and Sourth African Krugerrands

USAGOLD ranks among the most reputable gold companies in the United States. Founded in the 1970s and still family-owned, it is one of the gold industry’s oldest and most respected names. The firm’s unblemished, zero-complaints record and solid reviews with the Better Business Bureau testify to the exceptional customer service and professional excellence which sets it apart from the competition.

USAGOLD specializes in gold and silver coins and bullion delivered to our client’s safekeeping. For over 49 years, we have resolutely advocated owning precious metals for asset preservation purposes rather than speculation. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold and silver owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find our firm a kindred spirit.

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Interested in gold but struggling to find the right firm?
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Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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Short & Sweet
Gold’s secular bull market: 2003-2022
‘Each price correction and consolidation period has been a buying opportunity’

Veteran commodity analyst  Andrew Hecht recently revisited an instructive chapter of gold history to point up the metal’s long-term value as a portfolio inclusion for both governments and private investors. “The last government to doubt gold’s value got burned,” he says in a report posted at Seeking Alpha. “At the turn of this century, the United Kingdom decided to part with one-half of its gold reserves. Ironically, London is the hub of the international gold market, so the UK sent a signal that gold had seen better days. In a series of auctions, the UK sold around 300 metric tons at prices mainly below the $300 per ounce level. Since 2003, gold never traded below $300 per ounce. Since 2010, the price has not ventured below $1,000, and since 2020, the price has remained above $1450 per ounce. … In 1999, gold reached a bottom at $252.50 per ounce. Since then, each price correction and consolidation period has been a buying opportunity in gold. The over two-decade-long bullish trend continues to take gold to higher highs.”

Gold price
(Weekly prices, 2000-2022)
line chart showing the gold price 2000 through July 23 2022
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

Thinking this latest correction is another buying opportunity for gold?
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Sunday In Depth
Socialist mousetopia regresses to dystopia and finally, extinction

artist rendering of a well-cared for mouse

In a piece written for IFL Science, James Felton offers a riveting account of what exactly happened in the mousetopia of Universe 25. John B Calhoun, a medical doctor at the National Institute of Health, says Felton, “set about creating a series of experiments [in 1973] that would essentially cater to every need of rodents, and then track the effect on the population over time.” It yielded some very unexpected results. Calhoun’s socialist utopia (or, in this case, mousetopia) evolved to a chaotic dystopia and finally an apocalypse, as the norms of mice behavior in the wild completely broke down in what can only be called social chaos. “Soon,” writes Felton, “the entire colony was extinct.” In the opening paragraph to the study, Dr. Calhoun says, “I shall largely speak of mice, but my thoughts are on man, on healing, on life and its evolution. Threatening life and evolution are the two deaths, death of the spirit and death of the body.”

It is difficult to read Felton’s account of what happened in Universe 25 without thinking about the still-developing response to the crisis-related government support programs on all levels of our society, i.e., the distressing social, psychological, economic, and political upheaval it has induced. Calhoun, according to Felton, “believed that the mouse experiment may also apply to humans, and warned of a day where – god forbid – all our needs are met.” Moreover, Calhoun wrote, “For an animal so complex as man, there is no logical reason why a comparable sequence of events should not also lead to species extinction. If opportunities for role fulfillment fall far short of the demand by those capable of filling roles, and having expectancies to do so, only violence and disruption of social organization can follow.”

By all of this, we do not mean to suggest that contemporary society is headed for a dystopia – though some troubling signs are already present. On the other hand, it would be foolhardy to believe that there will not be modifications to the way our society operates, unintended consequences, and renegotiation (perhaps even radical alteration) of the standing social contract. The general effects on the economy – and ultimately financial markets – are likely to be ongoing with the ultimate results still to be determined. The wise will prepare for the unexpected.

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NEWS &VIEWS
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals

Archive

symbolic representation of wisdom as an owl perched on a golden key

“Wisdom is not a product of schooling but of the lifelong attempt to acquire it.”
Albert Einstein

We invite you to review past issues of our monthly newsletter. It’s worth the visit.

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The USAGOLD Website
A guiding light for our current and would-be clientele since 1997

graphic image of light house beaming
Welcome newcomers!

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1997), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 26-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning, we have grown to almost 800,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is a good place to start. 

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Short and Sweet
Inflation is a process not an event
But history, as we are learning now, shows runaway inflation can come suddenly and without warning

graphic image showing decline of the denarius over 200 y ears

Image courtesy of Visual Capitalist • • • Click to enlarge

We sometimes forget that inflation is a process rather than an event. One of the better-known examples of that axiom is the nearly two centuries-long debasement of Rome’s silver denarius. The Roman citizen who had the wisdom to hedge that process by going to gold at nearly any point along the way ended up preserving some portion, if not all, of his or her wealth. Those who did not suffered its debilitating effects. In the inflationary process, the line between cause and effect is not always a straight one, and its timing difficult to discern. History teaches us, though, that when runaway inflation does arrive, it comes suddenly, without notice, and with a vengeance. That is why it pays to view gold as a permanent and constantly maintained aspect of the investment portfolio. “A change of fortune,” Ben Franklin tells us, “hurts a wise Man no more than a change of the Moon.”
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(Related please see:  News & Views Special Report / March 2020 / Hedging the decline and fall of a currency – The baseline case for gold hasn’t changed much in 1700 years)

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Looking to prepare your portfolio for whatever uncertainty lies ahead
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

ORDER DESK:
1-800-869-5115 x100 • • • orderdesk@usagold.com • • • ONLINE ORDER DESK-24/7

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

 

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Image of the word 'Gold' with elaborate gold crownThe Investment of Kings and the King of Investments

From the small investor just starting out to the high-net-worth individual hedging a multi-million dollar portfolio, we have helped many thousands add precious metals to their holdings in our nearly 50 years in the gold business – safely, economically and with the investor’s goals in mind.

No matter the size of your investment kingdom, we can help!

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Interested in gold but struggling to find the right firm?
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Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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Short and Sweet
The more things change, the more they stay the same

In reading some of the analysis of late predicting that gold was headed back to the $1500 mark, I was reminded of an old Murray Rothbard quote that I first encountered when I entered the gold business in the early 1970s. He included it in the intriguingly titled pamphlet, What Has Government Done to Our Money:

“All pro-paper economists, from Keynesians to Friedmanites, were now confident that gold would disappear from the international monetary system; cut off from its ‘support’ by the dollar, these economists all confidently predicted, the free-market gold price would soon fall below $35 an ounce, and even down to the estimated ‘industrial’ nonmonetary gold price of $10 an ounce. Instead, the free price of gold, never $35, had been steadily above $35, and by early 1973 had climbed to around $125 an ounce, a figure that no pro-paper economist would have thought possible as recently as a year earlier.”

As you can see, even when gold was trading at $35, its adversaries were predicting lower prices ($10 per ounce), and even then, under the flimsiest of arguments. Its ‘industrial” nonmonetary price? How is that different from its monetary price? Ultimately in that first leg of gold’s long-term secular bull market during the 1970s, it went well over  $800 per ounce – a far (very far) cry from $10!

The lesson in all this? The more things change, the more they stay the same. Gold’s critics have not changed their tactics over the years, and they are not likely to anytime soon. So make your own assessment of gold and develop a strategy that makes sense for you. The worst thing you can do if you don’t own gold, or don’t hold enough, is to allow yourself to be sidelined by predictions that may or may not be based on a realistic assessment of the markets, gold, and the economy.

Image courtesy of the Mises Institute
What Has Government Done To Our Money/Murray Rothbard/Mises.org/Pdf download

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Ready to defy predictions of gold’s demise?
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How to choose a gold firm
It may be the most important choice you make as a gold owner

photo shows choosing a king on the chessboard

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands before the damage is detected.

Here you will find some brief but useful guidelines
to help
you choose the right gold and silver company.


To end right, start right.
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

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Short and Sweet
Blinded by the Money Illusion

graphic image of a pile of green money

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be.” – Janet Yellen, Former Federal Reserve chairwoman

With those words, Janet Yellen, now the Secretary of the Treasury and facing an even worse crisis than the one referenced above, put investors around the world on notice, though probably not in the way she intended. In the past, such smug assurances from public officials have been enough to send contrarian villagers heading for the safety of the nearby woods. The informed student of financial history knows that panics, manias, crashes, and collapses are as common to investment markets as hurricanes to Caribbean beaches. To think that suddenly we have banished their recurrence for ‘our lifetimes’ smacks of the kind of misguided hubris that contributed directly to the 2008 meltdown and subsequent untold financial hardship. Just about the time most everyone comes to the conclusion nothing could go wrong, everything goes wrong …… and in a hurry, as we have discovered over the course of the past two years.

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Short and Sweet
Of 17th-century tulips, 21st-century stocks and ageless gold

antique painting of a fool trading his gold for tulip bulbs

During the Dutch Tulipmania, the price of one special, rare type of tulip bulb called Semper Augustus sold for 1000 guilders in 1623, 1200 guilders in 1624, 2000 guilders in 1625, and 5500 guilders in 1637. Shortly thereafter, the bottom fell out of the market and prices plummeted to 1/200 of their peak price – a mere 27 guilders. In the artwork above an individual, portrayed in fool’s garment, is shown trading a hefty pouch of gold for a handful of tulip bulbs. It is no mystery who got the better part of that bargain. History teaches us that no era is immune to financial mania including our own. As a matter of fact, a good many believe that we are fully immersed in a stock market mania (wherein many include bitcoin) right now.

Since the earliest days of the USAGOLD website (the mid-1990s), we have enshrined a quote from Thomas Bailey Aldrich at our home page: “The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it.” Aldrich’s axiom has held true down through the ages. It applied in ancient Greece and Rome, in 11th century China, in the time of the Medicis, the Dutch Tulipmania, the South Seas Bubble and French fiat money mania, during the long string of panics in the late nineteenth and early 20th centuries (Aldrich’s time), the spate of post World War I and II hyperinflations (Austria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, et al)  and it still applies today.

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