Author Archives: Jake Farlow

Utah’s Incremental Approach to Sound Money:
A Step-by-Step Strategy

(USAGOLD – 4/22/2024) Gold prices are sharply lower this morning in US trading. The perceived reduction in Middle East tensions has negatively impacted the demand for safe-haven metals. Gold is trading at $2336.16, down $55.77. Silver is trading at $27.34, down $1.35. The article “Utah’s Step-By-Step Strategy in Support of Sound Money” by Mike Maharrey, discusses Utah’s incremental approach to promoting gold and silver as legal tender and fostering a sound money system. Since 2011, Utah has passed a series of laws, starting with the Utah Legal Tender Act, which recognized gold and silver coins as legal tender and exempted them from certain taxes. The state has seen the development of a robust gold and silver market, the establishment of the United Precious Metal Association (UPMA) offering bank-like services using precious metals, and the creation of the Goldback, a local voluntary medium of exchange. In 2024, Utah further supported sound money by authorizing the state to hold precious metal reserves and excluding central bank digital currencies from the state’s definition of legal tender. Maharrey emphasizes the effectiveness of a step-by-step strategy, as advised by the Founders, in achieving monetary reform and establishing a sound money system.

Economy On Life Support:
Uptick In Bankruptcies, Car Repossessions, and Credit-Card Delinquencies

(USAGOLD – 4/19/2024) Gold prices are slightly higher this morning but down from last night’s spike as Israel attacked Iran. Military and geopolitical analysts are saying Israel’s military action overnight was limited and meant to show Iran that Israel has the capability to do a major, devastating strike on Iran if it wants to do so. Gold is trading at $2381.74, up $2.70. Silver is trading at $28.45, up 20 cents. David Brady, a seasoned markets analyst and money manager, has issued a stark warning about the potential for a significant downturn in the S&P 500. On the “Thoughtful Money” podcast, he predicted that the index could drop by 30% from its current level of over 5,000 points to 3,500 points, marking an 18-month low. Brady attributes this forecast to the overvaluation of stocks and a higher risk of downside than potential upside. Despite anticipating a temporary rebound influenced by Federal Reserve interventions before the presidential election, Brady expects a subsequent severe crash, potentially reaching the lowest levels in 14 years. He cites multiple economic pressures, including rising inflation and increasing financial instabilities, as factors contributing to this grim outlook.”Still, it’s worth underscoring that the US economy and stocks have largely defied naysayers. Stocks hit record highs earlier this year, while inflation has cooled significantly, unemployment remains near historic lows, and growth has been robust.”

Gold Defies Expectations with Rally:
Silver Struggles to Keep Pace

(USAGOLD – 4/18/2024) Gold prices are higher this morning. Safe-haven purchases of both precious metals persist as the market remains cautious towards the end of the week due to geopolitical worries. Gold is trading at $2377.82, up $16.20. Silver is trading at $28.44, up 22 cents. Gold prices have been hitting record highs, defying the usual relationship with interest rate expectations. Typically, gold rallies with the anticipation of rate cuts and falls with expectations of rate hikes. However, despite a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts for 2024, gold has continued to rally. This unusual behavior may be due to large investors taking long positions in gold, possibly in anticipation of unforecasted large rate cuts or increased geopolitical instability. Silver, on the other hand, has not seen a similar rally and remains far from its all-time high. This discrepancy might suggest that the gold rally could be overextended or that silver might soon catch up. The gold-to-silver ratio indicates that silver is currently much cheaper relative to gold than in the past, suggesting potential for silver to gain. However, silver’s extensive industrial use and the impact of slow growth in China and tighter central bank policies may be restraining its price.

Gold Investment in China:
TA March 2024 Overview of Premiums, Demand, and Central Bank Activity

(USAGOLD – 4/17/2024) Gold prices are higher this morning. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in remarks on Tuesday suggested interest rates may have to remain higher for longer, to get inflation back down to a level where the Fed feels more comfortable. Gold is trading at $2392.96, up $10.06. Silver is trading at $28.69, up 58 cents. In March 2024, Ray Jia of the World Gold Council reports China’s gold market witnessed several significant developments. The Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB experienced a 10% increase, and the LBMA Gold AM Price in USD rose by 8%, with gold prices reaching record highs due to factors like strong global investment demand and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight dip in wholesale demand, the first quarter saw the highest Q1 wholesale gold demand since 2019, totaling 522t. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continued its gold purchasing streak for the 17th consecutive month, adding 5t to its reserves, which now stand at 2,262t. Additionally, Chinese gold ETFs saw significant inflows, pushing total assets under management to a new high of RMB35bn (US$5bn). There was a retreat in China’s gold price premium in March, reflecting weakened local demand amidst rising gold prices, although the first quarter overall recorded the highest Q1 premium ever due to strong physical demand in the initial months.

Decade of Stagnation:
Top Fund Manager Predicts ‘Dead Ball’ Era for Stocks Amid Inflation Fears

(USAGOLD – 4/16/2024) Gold prices slightly lower this morning after seeing some routine profit-taking pressure. The overall market continues to be somewhat uneasy due to increased geopolitical tensions. Gold is trading at $2374.39, down $8.75. Silver is trading at $28.28, down 59 cents. A top fund manager, Bill Smead, has warned that the stock market may be entering a “dead ball” era, potentially lasting a decade or more, with minimal returns and possible significant losses akin to those experienced during the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. Smead attributes this bleak outlook to the possibility of prolonged high inflation and interest rates, drawing parallels to the economic conditions of the 1970s. Despite the S&P 500’s 6.6% rally in 2024, Smead cautions against investing in overvalued sectors like AI and mega-cap stocks, which he believes are in a speculative bubble. Instead, he suggests that opportunities may lie in sectors that typically benefit from inflation, such as oil and gas, real estate, and gold. While Smead’s view is bearish, the consensus on Wall Street remains optimistic, with many investors bullish on stocks for the next six months.

The Cantillon Effect in Action:
Federal Reserve Policies and the Widening Wealth Gap

(USAGOLD – 4/15/2024) Gold prices are higher this morning after geopolitical tensions surged in the Middle East over the weekend. Gold is trading at $2350.29, up $5.92. Silver is trading at $28.61, up 73 cents. The recent article “The Rich get Richer. Thanks to the Fed.” from Peter St. Onge, discusses the significant increase in wealth among America’s richest due to Federal Reserve policies, particularly during the pandemic. The wealth of the top 1% in the U.S. reached an all-time high of $45 trillion, a 50% increase from 2020, largely fueled by the Fed’s massive money printing efforts amounting to $6 trillion in two years. This influx of new money primarily benefited financial markets and the wealthy, as the Fed’s method of increasing the money supply involves buying financial assets and subsidizing lending, a process known as Quantitative Easing. The article explains the Cantillon Effect, where new money benefits the rich first, with inflationary effects trickling down to impact the rest of the population, particularly harming those on fixed incomes like social security and pensioners. He concludes by stating that the Fed’s actions inherently drive inequality, serving the interests of the wealthy at the expense of the broader population.

The Inevitable Decline of Fiat Currencies:
Why Gold Maintains Purchasing Power

(USAGOLD – 4/12/2024) Gold prices have hit another all time high this week of $2404/oz. The broader financial markets are exhibiting heightened uncertainty as we approach the weekend, with the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions fueling increased investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Gold is trading at $2400.64, up $28.12. Silver is trading at $29.40, up 95 cents. The article titled “Gold and Silver Entering Exponential Phase” by Egon von Greyerz discusses the potential for gold and silver prices to rise significantly in the coming months and years, driven by a combination of technical and fundamental factors. He argues that gold maintains stable purchasing power over time, while fiat currencies inevitably decline in value. He suggests that gold and silver are currently undervalued relative to money supply and inflation, and that the financial system is on the verge of a major collapse. The article also touches on geopolitical tensions and the risk of global war, and recommends physical gold ownership as a form of wealth preservation and insurance against economic and political instability.

Credit: vongreyerz.gold

Bullion Bounces Back:
Gold Prices Defy Economic Headwinds and Central Bank Moves

(USAGOLD – 4/10/2024) Gold prices have recovered some ground Thursday. The latest economic data indicates that various components of producer price inflation in the U.S. economy have cooled down more than anticipated. Gold is trading at $2343.56, up $9.52. Silver is trading at $28.15, up 20 cents. Following the release of stronger-than-expected US CPI data yesterday, the gold market experienced a brief dip, losing $30, but quickly rebounded, demonstrating resilience even as the US dollar and treasury yields rose. This behavior suggests that gold investors are eager to buy on any dips, indicating a strong conviction behind the current rally. Despite initial expectations that the rally might be driven by options trading and associated delta hedging, the market’s response to adverse economic data suggests otherwise. The possibility of a major sovereign state purchase was considered but seems unlikely given the lack of changes in London vault stocks and the absence of transactions through the LBMA benchmark, pointing towards over-the-counter trades. The resilience of gold in the face of market headwinds suggests a higher path of least resistance, urging investors to hold onto their positions.

Surge in Silver:
India’s Imports Hit Record Levels with Increased Demand from UAE

(USAGOLD – 4/10/2024) Gold prices are lower in early trading Wednesday and sold off over 1% following another U.S. inflation report that came in higher than expected. Gold is trading at $2327.87, down $24.91. Silver is trading at $27.70, down 45 cents. In February 2024, India’s silver imports reached a record high, with a 260% increase compared to the previous month, largely due to lower import duties and significant purchases from the UAE. The country, which is the world’s largest silver consumer, imported 2,295 metric tons of silver in February alone, with 939 tons coming from the UAE. This surge in imports is expected to contribute to a 66% increase in silver imports for the year, potentially supporting global silver prices. The high volume of imports in early 2024 has led to an oversupply that pushed local prices into a discount, causing banks to reduce imports in March. Industry experts suggest that the cyclical nature of India’s silver imports, which saw a decline in 2023 after a record high in 2022, indicates a potential increase in 2024, with estimates reaching 6,000 tons. This demand is driven by the fabrication and solar industries, as well as investment purposes, with silver being seen as potentially offering higher returns than gold.