Biden’s Misery Index

Project Syndicate/Michael J. Boskin/2-17-2022

“Historically, the Misery Index seems to be correlated with electoral outcomes, with the party in power penalized when the index is high and rewarded when it is low.”

USAGOLD note: Although not dangerously high at this juncture, the Misery Index is trending higher and setting off all sorts of alarm bells at 11.5%. The election is still nine months out. By then, the MI could be much higher, or things could get better. Boskin, though, thinks it won’t get better unless the Fed miraculously engineers a lower inflation rate without a corresponding jump in unemployment – a prospect that might be even more daunting than inflation for the White House.

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve [FRED], U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics