Gold is now trading at $2933.95, down $18.62. Silver is trading at $31.90, down 46 cents. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100/oz, up from $2,890, citing sustained central bank demand and market dynamics. The bank’s analysis suggests that a structural rise in central bank demand could add 9% to gold prices by the end of 2025, with potential for prices to reach $3,300/oz or higher if policy uncertainty and fiscal sustainability concerns persist. Goldman has increased its central bank demand assumption to 50 tonnes per month, up from 41 tonnes, noting that if monthly purchases average 70 tonnes, gold could reach $3,300 per ounce by year-end 2025.
However, Goldman’s target may be conservative, as it doesn’t account for recent changes in China’s capital structure, particularly the new allowance for Chinese insurers to offer gold-based investments. Bank of America estimates this could generate around 300 tonnes of gold purchases. Additionally, the article highlights that increasing policy uncertainty, including potential tariffs, could drive prices even higher. The author suggests that tariffs are bullish for gold, as they may lead to increased “dollar-diversification” by nations fearing potential asset confiscation, resulting in higher demand for gold as a safe haven.
