LBMA Analysts project a bullish outlook for gold in 2025, with an average forecast price of $2,736.69—14.7% higher than 2024’s average. While the trading range remains wide, indicating volatility, no analyst expects an average above $3,000, though 20 predict highs exceeding that threshold. Keisuke Okui of Sumitomo Corp is the most bullish ($2,925 average), while Robin Bhar’s $2,500 forecast represents the bearish end. Silver is expected to follow gold’s upward trend, with a 2025 average forecast of $32.86 (16% above 2024’s average), led by Nicky Shiels’ $36.50 prediction and Nicholas Frappell’s $28.25 bearish estimate.
The top drivers for gold include US Fed policy (28%), central bank demand (21%), and geopolitical risks(15%). Analysts emphasize the Fed’s potential rate decisions as pivotal: rate hikes could suppress prices, while dovish policies or inflation concerns might boost gold’s appeal. Central bank buying is seen as a key demand driver, with geopolitical tensions (notably under a potential Trump administration) likely to accelerate reserve accumulation. Chantelle Schieven of Capitalight Research notes that 2024’s bullish factors will persist, while Nicky Shiels ties $3,000+ prices to the Fed’s response to “Trumpflation”.
Geopolitical instability, particularly linked to Trump’s potential return, is expected to sustain gold’s safe-haven demand. Grant Sporre highlights how such risks could drive emerging-market central banks to increase gold reserves. Historical context underscores this: gold rose 8% during heightened Ukraine and Middle East conflicts in early 2024. With 33 mentions of Trump in analyst commentaries, concerns over trade policies and global stability are central to 2025’s outlook, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty.
