Gold extended its rally on Monday September 22nd, with the spot price trading at $3,721.o4 per ounce, up $35.93. Silver likewise gained ground, trading at $43.546 per ounce, up $0.45 today. The broader metals complex continues to benefit from an accommodative Federal Reserve: last week’s 25-basis-point rate cut and dovish guidance have fueled expectations of two further cuts by year-end, keeping real yields depressed and enhancing bullion’s allure. Market participants are closely watching this week’s sequence of Fed speeches—including Chair Powell’s remarks on Tuesday—and the release of the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due Friday. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand has been bolstered by lingering geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank purchases, which have propelled gold’s year-to-date gain to over 41%, while silver has surged nearly 50% in the same period.
A new feature article entitled, “China Passes the Gold Baton to India” by Ross Norman, analyzes a striking reversal in the world’s most important physical gold markets. Where Chinese demand traditionally surged on price rallies and Indian buyers waited for dips, the two countries have swapped roles this year: Chinese demand is sharply down, with wholesale buying at half its ten-year average and central bank and ETF activity weakening, while Indian demand has surged dramatically despite record-high prices. Over the past three months, India’s gold imports have doubled and then doubled again, from 21 tonnes up to 100 tonnes, propelled by a confluence of factors—solid economic conditions, plentiful monsoon rains expected to boost rural gold purchases, and the arrival of the festival and wedding season, which promises record physical gold demand with an above-average number of weddings and higher expenditures. Premiums in India recently reached a ten-month high, contrasting with deep discounts in China, confirming the geographic shift in demand.
The piece suggests that this behavioral flip between the world’s two largest gold consumers, alongside continued robust but less transparent official-sector purchases, underpins gold’s resilience at current highs and makes the market less vulnerable to sharp corrections. High-quality, conviction-based buyers are driving demand, rather than speculative money seeking short-term gains. As India enters its “sweet spot” for seasonal buying, the article underscores that old assumptions about gold market leadership must be re-examined—India, long the steady price setter, now leads demand even into price strength, while China hesitates. This shift, Norman concludes, may signal a new era for physical gold’s global dynamics.
