Gold opened today October 13th, trading at $4,093.12 per ounce, up $74.65, while silver rose to $51.97 per ounce, marking a $1.92 increase. The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot and accompanying statement reinforced market pricing of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and December with probabilities near 95% and 80%, respectively, fueling demand for non–interest-bearing bullion. U.S. consumer price data due this week are expected to show inflation cooling toward the Fed’s 2% target, bolstering expectations for easier monetary policy. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified after fresh tariff threats, underpinning safe-haven flows into gold and silver.
A fresh analysis by the World Gold Council highlights that gold’s recent surge – capped by an October 8 breach of $4,000/oz – reflects robust investment demand amid dollar weakness, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations for U.S. rate cuts. Physically backed gold ETFs have amassed 634 tonnes year-to-date, just 2% shy of their 2020 peak, signaling ample room for further inflows. Although gold’s rally mirrors past bull markets in magnitude, its duration remains shorter than historical benchmarks, suggesting this cycle could still have legs. The report cautions that psychological thresholds around round-number milestones may overstate fundamental shifts, underscoring the importance of monitoring central bank buying and ETF allocations to gauge future momentum.
