Three Hints Yellen Dropped That the Fed Might Not Raise Rates in September

19-Jun (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen may be a “Decemberist” — investors’ nickname for those who want to wait to raise the benchmark lending rate until the end of the year.

The tally of Fed officials who want to hike this year rather than next year is still 15-2. Seven central bankers forecast one hike or none at all in 2015, new projections released Wednesday showed, up from three in March.

There are four remaining Federal Open Market Committee meetings this year. Two of them — one in September and the other in December — have press conferences, which is why economists are highlighting those dates as probable for a rate increase.

A close read of what Yellen emphasized yesterday suggests it would take sustained momentum to get the economy past the hurdles she still sees in its path.

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PG View: I doubt that a Sep rate hike was ever really in the cards. Hints to the contrary (as with March and June before that) were simply contrived to keep the market off guard. That may ultimately prove to be the case with December as well.