Friday, November 14, 2025 — Physical precious metals markets faced significant selling pressure today as spot gold declined sharply to $4,053.29 per ounce, representing a $118.21 decrease. Spot silver traded at $50.45, down $2.28. The sharp pullback came as hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for a December interest rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool showing odds of a 25-basis-point cut dropping to approximately 50%, down from 95% in October. Multiple Fed policymakers expressed reluctance to ease monetary policy further, citing persistent inflation concerns and relative labor market stability following the two rate cuts implemented earlier this year. The decline unfolded against a backdrop of unprecedented data uncertainty, as the White House confirmed that October employment reports will be released without unemployment rate figures due to the 43-day government shutdown, while fourth-quarter GDP is projected to contract by 1.5% as a direct result of the closure. Despite Friday’s losses, both metals remained on track for strong weekly gains, with gold up approximately 3.7% for the week and maintaining year-over-year gains of 56%, while silver posted 74% gains compared to November 2024 levels. The U.S. dollar strengthened amid the Fed’s hawkish pivot, adding additional downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities, while broader equity markets experienced significant sell-offs following the global risk-off sentiment triggered by changing central bank expectations.
China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10 times higher than its official figures, according to a comprehensive analysis published this week by the Financial Times, revealing a covert strategy to diversify away from U.S. dollar dependence. While official data from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows the country purchased only 25 tons of gold through August 2025—averaging around 2 tons per month in June, July, and August—analysts at Société Générale estimate China’s actual purchases in 2025 could reach as much as 250 tons, representing more than one-third of total global central bank demand. Few market participants believe the official figures, with Bruce Ikemizu, Director of the Japan Bullion Market Association, stating bluntly: “Especially regarding China’s official figures this year, no one believes them at all,” adding that he believes China’s current gold reserves are around 5,000 tons rather than officially reported levels. Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research, explained that “China is buying gold as part of its de-dollarization strategy,” while acknowledging the challenge of tracking these purchases: “Unlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can’t. There’s just no way to know where these things are going and who’s buying them”. Traders have resorted to alternative data sources to gauge Chinese demand, including tracking orders for freshly cast 400-ounce bars with sequential serial numbers—typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, shipped through London, and flown to China. The scale of undeclared purchases underscores growing challenges for market participants attempting to forecast price movements in a market increasingly dominated by opaque central bank buying. Beyond direct purchases, China has been encouraging developing countries with friendly relations, such as Cambodia, to settle gold transactions in yuan and store their reserves in vaults at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, aiming to expand yuan influence and counter dollar dominance in international financial markets.
