On Friday, April 10, gold prices are slightly up after a strong weekly rally, as investors reassessed the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Gold spot price is trading at $4,787.28 per ounce, up $21.38 (0.26%) on the day. Silver spot price is trading at $76.61 per ounce, up $1.28 (1.06%) on the day. The gold/silver ratio stands at approximately 63.8, little changed from the prior session. The key catalyst this week has been the shifting interest-rate outlook: the CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 24% probability of at least one rate cut by December, up from just 12% the prior week, fueled by a 1.4% weekly decline in the U.S. dollar and a nearly 12% weekly drop in oil prices—the steepest since June 2025. Despite Friday’s modest pullback, gold notched a 1.7% gain for the week, its third consecutive weekly advance.
Reuters reports that gold’s third weekly gain came even as Friday’s session saw mild profit-taking, with UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noting that the ceasefire-driven drop in oil and inflation expectations has revived rate-cut pricing—a structural tailwind for bullion. The article highlights that gold has fallen roughly 10% since the Iran war began on February 28, as surging energy prices pushed inflation expectations higher and rate hikes seemed likely. Now, the ceasefire is reversing that calculus: lower oil means lower inflation expectations, which means potential rate cuts, which means a weaker dollar and cheaper carrying costs for non-yielding gold. For physical investors, the insight is clear: the ceasefire is a double-edged sword in the short term—geopolitical risk premium is compressing—but the macro consequence is more bullish for gold long-term. If the Fed pivots toward cuts by year-end, the rally from $4,750 could accelerate toward Goldman Sachs’ $5,400 target. Accumulating physical on these pullbacks positions investors ahead of that policy shift.
