Category: Today’s top gold news and opinion

Is it time to hold gold?

Barron’s/Steve Garmhausen/11-30-2018

“Gold is an investment in disorder, not a hedge against inflation.”

USAGOLD note:  At the link above, James Grant tells Barron’s his current thinking on our favorite precious metal.  Grant is editor of the Interest Rate Observer newsletter.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

‘A much bigger problem than China

New York Sun/11-3-2018

“It would be a lot easier for the world financial leaders gathering in Buenos Aires to figure out coherent policies were an honest monetary system functioning today. Instead, the world has been at sea — a sea of fiat money — since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. It’s a tragedy that Mr. Trump and the 115th Congress failed to step to the problem when the GOP had control of the House.”

USAGOLD note:  The New York Sun has consistently editorialized in favor a gold standard.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

As Fed rethinks path for interest rates, gold’s poised to rally in 2019

Bloomberg/Ranjeetha Pakiam, Susanne Barton and Rupert Rowling/11-30-2018

“It was ‘getting pretty obvious that at some point Powell would have to flinch,’ Trey Reik, senior money manager at the U.S. unit of Sprott Inc., which oversees $7.6 billion said in an interview. ‘Once you get to the consensus view that the Fed may be done, the dollar may come under severe pressure. Gold will erupt.'”

USAGOLD note:  As we noted in Thursday’s DMR, some will see yesterday’s remarks as acquiescence to the president who two days ago said he was “not even a little bit happy” with the Fed chairman. Others will see it as a needed adjustment to worrying signs beginning to surface in the economy mostly centered around wobbly stock and bond markets and an overly strong dollar. Perhaps, in the end, it is a little of both.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

How and when will the next financial crisis happen? – 26 experts weigh in

Focus Economics/David J. Merkel/10-30-2018

“‘Marko Kolanovic, has highlighted a potential precipitous decline in stocks that could cause what has been termed ‘the Great Liquidity Crisis.’ He identified the shift away from actively managed investing toward passive investing strategies such as exchange-traded funds, index funds and quantitative-based trading strategies, as well as computerized trading as the potential culprit, which could not only be the catalyst for the next crisis but could also exacerbate the fallout.”

USAGOLD note:  Kolanovic is J.P. Morgan’s Global Head of Macro Quantitative and Derivatives Research, so he understands better than most where the fountainhead for the next crisis might lie. But if the above isn’t enough for you, this lengthy article passes along the views of 25 other economic experts.  Quite a contrast from a time not that long ago when “no one saw it coming”.  . . .


Repost from October 30, 2018

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Trump hails trade deal with China as one of the largest ever made

CNBC/David Reid/12-2-2018

“Late Saturday, the White House said in a statement that the U.S. would leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products at a 10 percent rate, and not raise it to 25 percent at this time.  Traveling back to the U.S. from the G-20 summit in Argentina, Trump told reporters he had struck an ‘incredible deal.’”

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold-Silver COT reports – Friday release

GoldSeek/11-30-2018

[Last week’s report]

[This week’s full report]

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

OPEC advisory committee recommends oil production cut

Bloomberg/Grant Smith/11-30-2018

“OPEC needs to cut oil production to avoid an oversupplied market in 2019, according to the group’s main advisory board, composed of officials that recommend policy to the ministers.”

USAGOLD note:  The advisory board is recommending a cut of 1.3 million barrels per day.  Total current OPEC production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is 38.78 million barrels per day.  So are talking about a roughly 3.5% cut in overall production.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

‘In the end, trees don’t grow to the sky, and few things go to zero’

“In the end, trees don’t grow to the sky, and few things go to zero. Rather, most phenomena turn out to be cyclical.”  ― Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital

Marks’ observation resides at the philosophical core of the enlightened gold owner.  Why?  Because he or she understands the cyclical certainty (or is it uncertainty?) of markets and the economy, indeed the cyclical certainty in the grand scheme of things of which the investment markets are only a small part.

“A true cycle,” says historian Arthur Schlesinger, “is self-generating. It cannot be determined, short of catastrophe, by external events. Wars, depressions, inflations may heighten or complicate moods, but the cycle itself rolls on, self-contained, self-sufficient and autonomous. . .The roots of cyclical self sufficiency lies deep in the natural life of humanity. There is a cyclical pattern in organic nature — in the tides, in the seasons, in night and day, in the systole and diastole of the human heart.”

At no point along the historical continuum are we ever at an end, nor are we ever at a beginning, and all along the way the twists and turns of the cycle will be sudden and unpredictable. That, in a nutshell, is why people own gold.

In the end, the enlightened gold owner might buy into the latest investment fad and run with the crowd, if he or she so chooses.  It is fundamentally better though to engage the madness of crowds with one’s safety net solidly in place.

I will leave you with a final observation from the famed investor, Bernard Baruch, one of the original Wall Street contrarians who made a fortune betting against the crowd.  In the late 1920s, he became a gold owner because he was “commencing to have doubts about the currency.”

“Have you ever seen in some wood,” he asks, “on a sunny quiet day, a cloud of flying midges — thousands of them — hovering, apparently motionless, in a sunbeam? …Yes? …Well, did you ever see the whole flight — each mite apparently preserving its distance from all others — suddenly move, say three feet, to one side or the other? Well, what made them do that? A breeze? I said a quiet day. But try to recall — did you ever see them move directly back again in the same unison? Well, what made them do that? Great human mass movements are slower of inception but much more effective.”

–– Michael J. Kosares


REPOST from 12/20/2016 [Updated 11-8-2018]


Image by derivative work: Pbroks13 (talk)Archimedian_spiral.PNG: User Mets501 on en.wikipedia (Archimedian_spiral.PNG) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)], via Wikimedia Commons

Posted in RepostKeepers, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Old and new central bank gold buying accelerates sharply

ETF Daily News/Allen Sykora

“Metals Focus is looking for global central-bank net gold purchases of up to 450 tonnes this year, which would top 390 and 375 the last two years, Liang said. If so, this would reverse a four-year gradual decline in net bullion buying since 2014, with last year’s total down by 42% from the multi-decade high of 646 tonnes in 2013, the consultancy said.”

USAGOLD note:  And there might be other purchases that no one knows anything about. . . .


Repost from 11/4/2018

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

“Thank you so much for your high rating for USAGOLD, Denver. They were recommended by a close friend and I researched them on your website in Oct 2009 and have been in touch with them ever since. I am now in full trust with their extraordinary business of great integrity and expertise. I will always deal with them . . Again, thank you for your expert ratings.” – Elan C., 8-29-2017

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USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

DMR–Gold resumes ‘wait-and-see’ posture

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold resumed its wait-and-see posture this morning as major changes in financial market dynamics seem to be in the making. Minutes to the October FOMC meeting released yesterday point to a drift among governors toward a more dovish overall position.  Markets are still digesting that drift along with the dovish tilt in chairman Powell remarks to the Economic Club of New York this past Tuesday. A change to easy money – or even easier money – will have wide-ranging effects in financial markets, particularly with respect to the dollar and consequently gold.

Adding to the tense market environment, on Saturday the presidents of the United States and China will meet for what many believe will be fateful dinner – one that will likely become a centerpiece in future historical accounts of the era. Goldman came out with its view this morning that the most likely outcome of the Trump-Xi parlay will be an escalation in the trade war, with a “pause” as a close second. Trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer, on the other hand, says he expects the dinner to be a “success.”

The stock market can’t seem to make up its mind on how all of this will work out.  It rallies, then it falls.  Gold, through it all, has taken a more steadfast, even-keeled approach. For today though, the mood has swung back to  cautious. The yellow metal is down $3 on the day at $1221.50.  Silver is down 10¢ at $14.23.

Quote of the Day
“Let it be emphasized once more, and especially to anyone inclined to a personally rewarding skepticism in these matters: for practical purposes, the financial memory should be assumed to last, at a maximum, no more than 20 years. This is normally the time it takes for the recollection of one disaster to be erased and for some variant on previous dementia to come forward to capture the financial mind. It is also the time generally required for a new generation to enter the scene, impressed, as had been its predecessors, with its own innovative genius.” ― John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  Since 2008, eruptions in the volatility index have preceded upward moves in the gold price. Volatility is on the rise at the present but the increase is not nearly as dramatic as in 2009, 2011, and 2015. If the volatility index is an indicator of sentiment, investors appear worried but, at this juncture, not the level of worry that would cause a mass exodus to gold and other safe havens.  According to a report in Financial Times this past weekend, however, conservative investors have begun to pull money out of corporate bond funds and transfer that capital to gold. Inflows into gold ETFs, FT reports, are up for the seventh week running.

Posted in Daily Market Report, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Investors catch gold bug again

Forbes/Simon Constable/11-30-18

“The ‘recent selloff in the S&P 500 Index was the largest monthly drop since September 2011,’ states a recent research note from Aberdeen Standard Investments. ‘During this heightened volatility, investors flocked to gold.’ Investors found ETFs especially attractive, with 23 metric tons, or 739,466 troy ounces getting added to such investments, the report explains. These were the first inflows since April the report states.”

USAGOLD note:  As we have noted consistently at this page, ETF demand is an indicator of institutional and fund interest.  Over the past few years, funds and institutions have been a steady presence in the gold market with many of the big-name buyers consistently stating their concerns about general financial system risks.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Fed’s Powell shakes gold out of its doldrums

Bloomberg/Marvin G. Perez and Susanne Barton/11-28-2018

“Powell’s views ‘suggest to most readers that after the December hike, they will see how the data comes in,’ Tai Wong, head of base and precious metals trading at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. The ‘speech could be a game changer if not walked back’ and is more important than any possible statement coming out of the G-20, he added by email.

USAGOLD note:  That use of the word “gamechanger” caught our eye in an otherwise run-of-the-mill report following chairman Powell speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday.


Image by Dilaudid [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)], via Wikimedia Commons

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

The USAGOLD Website – A guiding light for current and would-be clientele since 1997

Welcome newcomers!  We invite you to kick back, stay awhile, do some interest-driven browsing

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.  If you would like to witness that piece of technology in action, you can see it here at the WaybackMachine.  (Don’t laugh.)

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1996), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 22-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning (When you visit the WayBackMachine, take special note of the number of visitors registered on our counter!) we have grown to over 600,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is good place to start.  For a full site outline including links and page descriptions. . . . . .

We invite you to visit our
Table of Contents

Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Foreign buyers of debt vanish just as the U.S. needs them most

Palisade Research/Adem Tumerkan/11-28-2018

“Making matters worse – not only are foreigners not buying as much U.S. debt. But the current top overseas holders – China and Japan – are actually selling their U.S. government bonds. China’s selling because of the ongoing Trade/Currency war with the U.S. – as well as their own domestic need for liquidity.  And Japan’s selling because of the strong U.S. dollar – which has crippled Emerging Markets and global asset prices throughout 2018.”

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Danger lurks for dollar bulls in outcome of Trump-Xi dinner

Bloomberg/Sydney Maki and Liz McCormick/11-29-2018

“The eyes of the global currency market will be on Saturday’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with some analysts seeing even a modicum of progress toward easing trade tensions as enough to sink the dollar.”

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

News Alert: US will suspend tariffs if China changes economic policies

Money and Markets/J.T. Crowe/11-29-2018

“The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the United States and China are pursuing a deal to defuse trade tensions and boost markets, in which the Trump administration will hold off on further tariffs through spring as the two sides work on a deal. The talks include “big changes in Chinese economic policy,” according to U.S. and Chinese officials.”

USAGOLD note: A rare optimistic assessment of the upcoming Trump-Xi conclave in Buenos Aires . . . .

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

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What money ought to be

“Oresme wrote that it is ‘disgraceful and everywhere foreign to the nobility of a prince to prohibit the circulation of good money in his country, and, for the sake of gain, to order and even compel his subjects to use his own which is poorer, as if to say that good is bad and his bad is good.’ He was flexible in case of emergencies, such as during periods of war, or to pay ransoms with ‘bad’ or debased money, or to help liberate a kidnapped king. But the bishop added, ‘If the community should in any way make such an alteration, the money ought to be restored to its proper basis as soon as possible, and the making of gain in that way should cease.’” – Alejandro Chaufen, Forbes

Dr. MoneyWise says. . . This essay cites notables on the subject of money – Aristotle, Thomas Aquinas and Copernicus – to name a few.  All had similar views.  It talks about what money ought to be, the right and wrong of it, and ends up with a couple words on Bitcoin – caveat emptor.  We academics do love our Latin.


Repost from August 2018

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Posted in Dr. Moneywise, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

DMR–Optimism creeps quietly into gold market with Powell’s dovish tilt

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Optimism crept quietly into the gold market beginning about mid-day yesterday. It took the form of a $6 advance immediately following Fed chairman Powell’s dovish tilt in a speech before the Economic Club of New York. It then gathered pace overnight in Asian and European markets and carried over to the U.S. open.  Gold is now trading at $1226 and up $5 from yesterday’s FOREX close.  Silver is up 5¢ at $14.37.

Some will see yesterday’s remarks as acquiescence to the president who two days ago said he was “not even a little bit happy” with the Fed chairman.  Others will see it as a needed adjustment to worrying signs beginning to surface in the economy mostly centered around wobbly stock and bond markets and an overly strong dollar.  Perhaps, in the end, it is a little of both. . . .

Also helping gold this morning are reports that Saudi Arabia is pushing hard behind the scenes for oil production cutbacks to address falling prices and a report from Reuters that Russia is “becoming increasingly convinced it needs to reduce oil output in tandem with OPEC.”

Quote of the Day
“Gold is scarce. It’s independent. It’s not anybody’s obligation. It’s not anybody’s liability. It’s not drawn on anybody. It doesn’t require anybody’s imprimatur to say whether it’s good, bad, or indifferent, or to refuse to pay. It is what it is, and it’s in your hand.” – Simon Mikhailovich, Tocqueville Funds (with thanks to Ron Stoeferle and Mark Valek at Incrementum AG)

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  As we head into the final month of the year, we thought it might be a good time to post a chart on gold’s performance thus far in 2018.  As of November 23, gold is down 5.1% on the year.  The downside is not as amplified as the day-to-day headlines might suggest and for value investors, the upturn over the last several weeks might indicate a change in sentiment and direction for the gold market – particularly with the latest stock market weakness taken into account and the Fed chairman’s migration to a dovish tilt in comments before the Economic Club of New York yesterday.

Posted in Daily Market Report, Today's top gold news and opinion |

European investors opt for gold

Funds Europe/Nick Fitzpatrick/11-26-2018

“A large number of European investors have cited gold as the best investment opportunity over the next 12 months, according to a Legg Mason survey. The survey, which polled the views of over 16,000 investors globally, found that about a quarter of those polled in Germany, Italy, Switzerland and the UK identified gold as an investment opportunity.”

USAGOLD note:  Between the complications with Brexit and the dispute between Brussels and Rome and now the sudden resurfacing of tensions between Ukraine and Russia, Europeans have much to worry about – politically and economically.  The old refuge – the one that goes back centuries as a hedge against European turmoil – appears to be receiving new attention as reflected in both the acqusition of physical coins and bullion and gold ETF shares.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

US dollar will weaken through 2020 as investors find better returns elsewhere, Morgan Stanley says

CNBC/Yen Nee Lee/11-29-2018

“With U.S. economic growth forecast to slow next year, the Fed is widely expected to take a break from hiking rates in the middle of 2019 which will weaken the U.S. dollar. But more importantly, large economies such as Europe, Japan and China are now investing less in global financial markets, so demand for the U.S. dollar will likely reduce, said Hans Redeker, Morgan Stanley’s global head of FX strategy.”

USAGOLD note: The point Redeker makes is one based on supply-demand fundamentals and largely left out of recent analysis on the dollar.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

How a dovish tone at the Fed sounded across markets

Bloomberg/Vildana Hajric, sarahPonczek and Elena Popina/11-28-2018

“From emerging-market bonds to developed-nation currencies, the ripples from Jerome Powell’s comments on interest rates barreled through markets in seconds.”

USAGOLD note:  An interesting quick summation on how various markets reacted to the Powell speech. . . . . including gold.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gulf between US and China looms large ahead of G20 meeting

Financial Times/Tom Mitchell and Sherry Fei Ju/11-28-2018

“Three months ago, Chinese officials saw the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the G20 as their best hope for a settlement that would end Beijing’s trade war with Washington. Then they hoped for a truce. Now they will consider themselves lucky if this week’s encounter passes without any embarrassment for Mr Xi, as they brace themselves for a new round of US tariffs early next year.”

USAGOLD note:  The consensus opinion seems to be that rapprochement between the one and two economies in the world is a distant possibility.  It is difficult to know how markets, including gold, will react once the reality sets in.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

U.S. trade deficit in goods widens 1.3% to $77.2 billion in October

MarketWatch/Greg Robb/11-28-2018

“An early look at trade patterns in October showed a 1.3% widening in the U.S. goods deficit – to $77.2 billion from a revised $76.3 billion in September, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists were looking for the deficit to widen to $77.7 billion. Exports declined in October while imports rose at a slightly faster pace.”

 

USAGOLD note:  We note that the current trade deficit in goods is running at record levels despite rising domestic oil production and the implementation of tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold, dollar charts after Powell comments

Charts courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

DMR Update – Gold bolts higher on Powell comments

(USAGOLD, Wednesday 11/28/2018) – Gold bolted $6 higher immediately after Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated in a speech that interest rates are “just below” the neutral range, an indication that the Fed might slow interest rate increases in 2019.  It is now trading at $1220.50, up $6 on the day.  Silver is up 16¢ at $14.33.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Short and Sweet

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“Bear markets are sneaky beasts. . .”

“Bear markets are sneaky beasts and they like to do their damage as secretly and as unobtrusively as possible. I hate to say it but somewhere ahead, the bears going to get it all together and the innocent little stream is going to turn into a waterfall. What can you do about it? Stay out of the market? Protect yourself by remaining in pure wealth, gold. For thousands of years, silver and gold have been treated as pure wealth. As the standard measures of wealth (stocks and bonds) have deteriorated, veteran investors have forgone profits and moved their assets into pure wealth.” – Richard Russell, King World News, 2016

USAGOLD note: King World News called the late, great Richard Russell – who regaled us with his wisdom in the Dow Theory Letter for nearly half a century – “the greatest financial writer in history.” A Mish Shedlock warning this past week that Americans should expect a “Lost Decade” and that the stock market rout is “just a start,” lit the memory banks and sent me off searching for this old quote. We can only guess what Russell would have had to say about the current state of affairs, but the quote above provides a clue.  Never predictable in his opinions, he was rock solid on one axiom throughout his career – the necessity and transcendence of gold as a permanent component of the well-balanced investment portfolio. As he said, so often, it helped him sleep at night.

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Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Here’s what to expect from Fed Chief Powell’s most important speech yet

CNBC/Jeff Cox/11-28-2018

“Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is delivering a speech Wednesday that one strategist says ‘may be the most consequential’ of his term to date.”

USAGOLD note:  An interesting array of opinion from Wall Streeters on what the Fed chair might try to accomplish in his speech today.

 

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

No DMR today. . . .

. . . . but please check back.  We will post an update if anything of interest develops.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |