Category: all posts

Strange link between inflation and gold

Stock Trading Alert/Arkadiusz Sieron/2-15-2018

“Gold soared on Wednesday. The reason is the stronger than expected inflation data. However, the price of bullion fell initially, which raises some doubts about the sustainability of the rally, especially that the CPI report boosted expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in March. Luckily for gold, the greenback failed once again, helping the yellow metal to jump above $1,350. It suggests that the markets expect that the U.S. central bank will stay behind the curve – the forecasts of an aggressive Fed would have inclined traders to buy the American currency. Hence, there is room for further upward moves in the gold market.”

MK note 1:  Perhaps it is time to reflect seriously on the idea of moving into a whole different kind of market, not just for gold but for all the major asset groupings – stocks, bonds, commodities, exotic derivatives.  The old quid pro quos – old causes and effects – are changing to the new. Yesterday’s market action may have been part and parcel of that change – perhaps the first installment in a new market order that to me reads more like the late 1960s-early 1970s than it does 1987 or 1929. No matter what, we know that we are entering a time of heightened uncertainty and danger for investors, and as a result, gold and silver will play an important role in investor portfolios.

MK note 2: We will be exploring those changing dynamics here at MK’s Short and Sweet as we move along, but in the piece linked above, Sieron examines some of the mysteries involved in a very refreshing and thought-provoking way. I agree fully with his observation that the markets “expect” the Fed to stay behind the curve on interest rates.  That’s what made the 1970s, the 1970s, and is perhaps the most important dynamic underlying the psychology now present in all the major asset classes.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold steady so far this morning, producer prices post strong gain

EARLY REPORT

Gold is steady this morning after yesterday’s big run-up trading at $1354.00.  Silver is down a tad trading at $16.86 (-8¢). The Producer Price Index is out this morning and it posted a .4% gain for January adding credence to building inflationary concerns and validating yesterday’s retail inflation numbers.

Commodity prices in general are on the rise, particularly the energy complex and metals – precious and industrial, and those price increases are likely to factor into the pricing for manufactured goods as we move along through 2018.  Gasoline, for example, was a major factor in this morning producer price index number.

Chart of the DayChart note:  This Trading Economics chart on the GSCI Commodity Index shows a rising trend in commodity prices despite the most recent leg down.
Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold: A pivotal moment has arrived

Seeking Alpha/Cliff Droke/2-14-2018

“Shown here is the Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:FXY), which was highlighted in my February 12 commentary. As I previously asserted, sustained strength in the yen normally bodes well for the near-term gold price outlook. From this perspective, Tuesday’s rally in FXY suggests that gold will soon attempt a similar upside breakout.”

MK note:  More on the curious pairing of gold and the Japanese yen . . .

Share
Posted in all posts |

Dollar hits 15-month low vs yen, some see further slide

Reuters/Masayuki Kitano/2-15-2018

“The dollar extended its losses against the yen and hit a new 15-month low on Thursday, with market participants bracing for further near-term weakness in the U.S. currency. . . .’There’s nothing specific, it’s just a continuation of dollar selling that we’ve seen everywhere overnight, said Tareck Horchani, head of sales trading in Asia Pacific for Saxo Markets in Singapore.'”

Share
Posted in all posts |

Olympic medal standings, by country

 

 


Gold

Norway – 11
Germany – 10
Netherlands – 6
Canada – 6
United States – 5
France – 4
Sweden – 4
Austria – 4
Korea – 3
Japan – 2
Switzerland – 2
Italy – 2
Slovakia, Czech Republic, Belarus, UK, Poland, Ukraine – 1

Silver
Norway – 9
Germany – 6
Netherlands – 5
Canada – 5
Japan – 5
China – 5
Switzerland – 4
United States – 3
Sweden – 3
Russia – 3
Australia – 2
Austria – 2
Korea – 2
Slovakia – 2
France – 2
Czech Rep – 2
Italy, Belarus, Slovenia – 1

Total Gold, Silver & Bronze

Norway – 28
Germany – 20
Canada – 17
Netherlands – 13
Russia – 11
United States – 10
Japan – 10
France – 10
Austria – 10
Sweden – 7
China – 7
Czech Republic – 6
Italy – 6
UK – 4
Slovakia –3
Australia – 3
Finland – 3
Spain – 2
Latvia, Kazakhstan, Lichtenstein, Slovenia, Ukraine –1

Share
Posted in all posts |

China currency policy may be facing a new chapter

Bloomberg/Yinan Zhao, Kana Nishizawa, and Justina Lee/2-14-2108

“In the fraught history of Chinese currency policy, a new chapter could be looming this year as authorities consider the consequences of a yuan that’s testing its strongest levels since mid-2015. After successfully shutting off potentially destabilizing capital outflows and putting a floor under the yuan, policy makers may now have the luxury of looking at relaxing some of the strictures on domestic money. But China watchers warn that any moves are likely to be gradual and calibrated, given the turmoil of 2015 — when a sliding yuan spooked global markets.”

MK note:  A heads up on China’s yuan policy worth keeping in mind. China wants to control capital flow by keeping the yuan reasonably strong and encourage exports by keeping the yuan reasonably weak – yin and yang.  Meanwhile, the official policy top to bottom in Chinese society will be to accumulate physical gold. . .and increasingly silver – a no-nonsense  approach to sovereign portfolio design.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold vaults sharply higher on inflation, dollar concerns

LATE REPORT

Gold vaulted sharply higher today to finish on concerns about the strong .5% jump in the Consumer Price Index (6% annualized) and the subsequent steep drop in the dollar. Gold finished the day up $21 at $1350.50. Silver went along for the ride finishing up 25¢ on the day at $16.81.  Commodities across the boards registered gains again today with oil and metals leading the way.  The 10-year Treasury yield is now nudging against the 3% market at 2.90%.

A number of analysts were surprised at gold’s performance today in that the Fed might decide to get more aggressive on interest rates and that is rarely good for gold.  However, there are other concerns playing on investors’ minds. “What’s interesting to note about the recent stock market plunge,” says Cliff Droke at Seeking Alpha, “is that U.S. Treasuries weren’t the go-to safe haven among worried investors. Instead it was the old standby – the Japanese yen – and the yellow metal.”  That demand, global in nature, is pushing up prices.

For a more detailed look at the day’s events and what led up to them, we invite you to scroll below where you will find a wealth of information.

Quote of the Day
“When news comes out to justify interest rate hikes like CPI today, gold and stocks will (should) sell off. When (if) the rate hike actually comes.. Gold will be more likely to rally as the fed must lag inflation keeping real rates close to zero or negative to prop stocks. And the unintended consequences of Gold rallying as the Fed attempts to orchestrate an orderly low volatility type of descent in stocks will become obvious. Gold traders should consider selling Gold and stocks on the data. And buy Gold on the actual hike in rates. Welcome to the 1970s. ‘Buy the Dip’ is no longer exclusive to stocks. It may soon become Gold’s mantra.” – Vince Lanci, EchoBay


What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold
Some initial guidelines from one of America’s top gold experts

If you are new to the concept of gold ownership, you might be looking for a little guidance.  We, at USAGOLD, have been in the gold business for a good many years and the one thing that stands out to us in working with so many over the years is how often investors, for one reason or another, get off to a bad start.

That is why we developed a question and answer page many years ago that delves into the subject of GETTING OFF TO THE RIGHT START. We update it regularly as things can change rapidly in the gold and silver markets. The page is linked above and we recommend that newcomers spend the few minutes it takes to get through it. . . .

This page receives considerably high-ranking from Google on a number of important searches and we like to think it’s because of the cause it serves – providing some positive direction to investors trying to get off to a solid start in their pursuit of gold ownership.

If you would like to talk with a real, live gold expert about your needs,
try this phone number or drop us an e-mail:

1-800-869-5115
Extension #100

– or –

orderdesk@usagold.com

Share
Posted in all posts |

Exclusive offer to Online Order Desk registrants sold out. . . .

It was actually sold out by the open of business today, but with everything going on in the markets, we didn’t get around to posting this announcement until now.

Many thanks to those who participated in this special offer and congratulations on your timing!

If you have not registered as yet to use the Online Order Desk, we invite you go to our sign-up page so you will be in a position to purchase when we e-mail and post the next offer. Quite often our special offers sell out quickly as was the case with yesterday’s sale of Dutch 10 guilder queens.

We will keep you informed of future offers.

Share
Posted in all posts |

70% of fund managers see danger ahead

The highest percentage since the financial crisis

MarketWatch/Ryan Viastelica/2-14-2018

“The recent turbulence on Wall Street, which pushed the U.S. stock market into its first correction in about two years, seems to have soured fund managers on where the economy may be headed. According to the BofA Merrill Lynch fund manager survey for February, 70% of those polled believe the global economy is in its ‘late cycle,’ the highest such reading since January 2008, right as the financial crisis began to gather steam. The late part of an economic cycle typically coincides with the market’s peak and precedes a decline into recession.”

 

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold surges higher, dollar tanks

UPDATE

Gold surged higher at the close of COMEX trading, up $21 at $1353.00.  Initially the market was driven by strong buying on the inflation jolt.  It looks like technical buying and short covering came into the market towards the end of the session – a sign that the shorts feel a need to liquidate their positions.  Similarly, and inversely, the dollar took an initial dive, steadied then dropped again precipitously. Looks like we are heading toward the biggest single-day gain for gold in 2018. . . . . .MK

 

Share
Posted in all posts |

U.S. stock market battles to shake off morning jolt from inflation data

MarketWatch/Victor Reklaitis and Anora M. Gaudiano/2-14-2018

“Inflation scares that were responsible for the stock-market tumble over the past few weeks made a brief appearance on Wednesday with the release of consumer-price index data. But the main equity gauges recovered from the initial shock to trade higher. The cost of rent, clothes, gasoline, health care and auto insurance all rose, contributing to the 0.5% jump in the consumer-price index. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3%. Analysts said stronger inflation data may force the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in tightening policy.”

MK note:  Not sure that the speculators have had their final say on the inflation numbers – the quiet stock market fits neither the uncertainties generated by the news, nor the more visceral reaction in other markets.

Share
Posted in all posts |

This chart says gold is beginning a long-term uptrend

Gold Seek/Jeff Clark/2-14-2018

“There aren’t many investment scenarios you can point to with any degree of certainty and say, ‘This asset is going to rise’ Saying so is usually fraught with risk, even if in hindsight it turns out to have been an accurate call. But there are certainly times when you can see that the odds are heavily stacked in your favor. And we have one of those potential scenarios right now in gold. It’s a rather strong setup, based on a simple algebraic equation: if A happens, then B is likely to happen. And in this case A equals the direction of the US dollar.”

MK note:  Jeff Clark echoes arguments made on this page over the past several months – a rationale tied to the history illustrated in the longer-term dollar index chart – and its relationship to the price of gold.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold vaults higher on this morning’s CPI report, dollar craters

UPDATE………Gold is now spiking higher as the strong CPI number sinks in, up $17 at $1349.50.  Silver has also gained some momentum, up 18¢ at $16.80.  The inflation number came in far above expectations.  The big addition to the national debt over the past two days is also raising concerns (scroll immediately below for details).

The dollar index is in free fall. . . . .We will keep you updated.

EARLY REPORT

Gold dropped abruptly on the Consumer Price Index report of a .5% jump in inflation, then just as abruptly jumped higher – as traders attempted to read a meaning in the numbers. Gold is now trading at $1334, up $2.00 on the day.  Silver is up 3¢ at $16.64.  The stock market has been indecisive as well but trading down 128 at the moment. The dollar moved indecisively higher on the news.

A quick look at our Chart of the Day tells us that it is not the number itself that is affecting the markets this morning, but the context in which it is delivered.  At a 6% annualized rate today’s CPI number validates the higher inflation expectations that pushed stock markets sharply lower last week.  The developing trend above the 2% annualized figure the Federal Reserve has targeted will be troublesome for stocks, bonds and the dollar as well.  It will be interesting to see how this all plays out over the course of the day.

Chart of the Day

 

Share
Posted in all posts |

Saxo Bank says volatility focus pushing major geopolitical risks to background

Saxo Bank/Steen Jakobsen/2-13-2018

“The market is so focused on NASDAQ volatility that a lot of geopolitical risk is being ignored: Israel and Iran are now directly facing off each other,  whereas in the past it was through a proxy: Haaretz – After years of covers proxy wars, Iran shifts to direct contact with Israel.”

MK note:  In general, the temperature is rising in the Middle East, including troubling reports of U.S.-Russia encounters in Syria, as reported today in the New York Times.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Credit Suisse believes central banks are selling off their dollar reserves

ExchangeRates.org.uk/Francois Aure/2-14-2018

“Appetite for the US Dollar has certainly waned in recent months as the more hawkish ECB has prompted institutions and funds to scoop up the potentially undervalued Euro and dump some of the Dollar, who’s bullish trend over the last few years has looked increasingly tired as other Central Banks have adopted a more hawkish approach. Economists at Credit Suisse released a report on Central Bank activity in Asia, where they have seen a number of major banks trimming their Dollar reserves . . “

Share
Posted in all posts |

Dalio’s Bridgewater boosts gold holdings in SPDR, IShares

Bloomberg/Luzi-Ann Javier/2-13-2018

“Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio boosted his holdings in the two largest gold-backed ETFs last quarter before prices of the metal capped the biggest annual gain in seven years. . . .In August, Dalio recommended investors consider placing 5 percent to 10 percent of their assets in gold, citing political and economic risks.”

Related: Dalio – [T]he dollar’s role as the dominant world currency is an anachronism/ MKS&S/ 1-25-2018
Share
Posted in all posts |

U.S. Treasury finally updates the national debt number . . . .

MK note: . . . . . adding $179 billion to the accumulated federal debt in two days. Treasury had not updated the national debt figure all year due to restraints placed on borrowing until after the president signed the budget bill February 8th. The total amount, as you can see in the Treasury table below, blew past the $20.5 trillion mark to stand at

$20,673,916,370,594.86


Related:  The National Debt and Gold – Here’s why the two have risen together since the 1970s and why the correlation is likely to continue/Inclusion, USAGOLD Safe Haven Investor Introductory Information Packet

 

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold up respectably today, much in abeyance waiting for tomorrow’s CPI report

LATE REPORT

Gold closed up $7 today on the FOREX at $1329.50 on a sharp break in the dollar  index. The upside move started in Asia as the yen moved higher, lost momentum in Europe, then reasserted itself during the U.S. session. Silver had a quiet, sideways day. All seemed to be in abeyance awaiting tomorrow’s CPI report with much speculation about what is likely to be reported and how it will affect various assets.

Barron’s Avi Salzman captured the spirit of the day when he wrote: “The release of tables showing the changes in the prices of mundane items like tires and cheese will be watched on Wednesday with the same intensity as if it were the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. Investors want to know if inflation is really back, or if the fear of rising prices is over-hyped. Trillions of dollars in stock and bond market value could hang on the difference of a few tenths of a percentage point.” Even if you knew the CPI number ahead of time, it would be difficult to place a sure bet on how gold would likely react. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow following the 8:30AM ET tip-off.

Quote of the Day
“I‘m concerned that our increasing fractious political process, particularly with respect to federal spending, is threatening our ability to properly defend our nation, both in the short term and especially in the long term. . .The failure to address our long-term fiscal situation has increased the national debt to over $20 trillion and growing. I would urge all of us to address this challenge.” – Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence


Recent Better Business Bureau client review

“A trusted friend referred me to USAGOLD. As a novice, I was interested in their offer to teach. I got a good education. USAGOLD can be taken at their word, as good as gold – as the apt saying goes – a reliable, honest company. Comparing major online dealers often, still surprised what USAGOLD’s competitors do – higher prices, gimmicky products, odd procedures. . . I went slow and got it right, avoiding unaffordable mistakes. USAGOLD’s website, methods, and 4 Staff members on the phone with me – all models of clarity. I recommend USAGOLD continuing as a satisfied, now smarter, customer.” – M. Norman

Scorecard: 38 five star reviews, zero complaints, A+ rating, accredited since 1991. [Link]

Share
Posted in all posts |

Exclusive Offer – Online Order Desk registrants only

Online Order Desk Special Offer
Dutch Queen 10 Guilder

Netherlands / Queen Wilhelmina /.1947 troy ounces / Minted – 1892-1933 / Uncirculated grade

You can own this historically-important, elegant and scarce old world gold coin at a price comparable to what you would pay for a modern bullion coin – a solid opportunity. First-come, first-served.

Only 300 available at this special pricing –– 8% over melt value. Online Order Desk registrants only *

New to USAGOLD? Questions?
Please call our ORDER DESK to place your first order – 1-800-869-5115
, Extension # 100

* To complete your registration, please go to our sign-up page linked at the top the Online Order Desk entry page.

Share
Posted in all posts |

US economy is an ‘accident waiting to happen,’ says Yale economist Stephen Roach

CNBC/Evelyn Cheng/2-13-2018

“‘Given this deficit spending, our savings rate is going to go to zero adjusted for inflation, and that’s going to push us into a realm of wider current account and trade deficits,’ Stephen Roach, Yale University senior fellow . . . The way I look at the fundamentals is they’re extremely fragile, and we’re kidding ourselves every time there’s a correction to say, well the economy is sound,’ Roach said. ‘It is not sound at all when seen through the lens of low savings. We’re an accident waiting to happen here, and just by spinning a market correction, saying the fundamentals are sound, and then going down the road of deficit spending.'”

MK note:  Roach is right.  Let’s cut the glossy rhetoric in the financial media to a  minimum or eliminate it completely  – this sense that ‘there’s nothing to see here’. Instead of whitewashing every negative turn of events, just a reversion to neutral without the qualifiers would be an advancement in the interest of Main Street investors.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Powell says Fed alert to any developing financial risks

Bloomberg/Rich Miller/2-13-2018

“‘We will remain alert to any developing risks to financial stability,’ he [Fed chairman Jerome Powell] said Tuesday in the text of remarks in Washington at his ceremonial swearing-in. ‘We are in the process of gradually normalizing both interest rate policy and our balance sheet with a view to extending the recovery and sustaining the pursuit,’ of its twin statutory goals.”

MK note:  On the job. . . Nothing earth-shaking here but a public commitment to a continuation of Fed policies instituted under Janet Yellen. . .at least for now.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold pushing higher today on dollar weakness

EARLY REPORT

Gold is pushing higher in early trading, up $6.00 at $1329.00.  Silver is sideways this morning at $16.57.  Gold turned to the upside in Asia overnight in concert with a stronger yen and weakness in the Tokyo stock market, came off a bit in London trading and then swung sharply higher at the New York open. Overall dollar weakness underlies gold’s upside bias this morning.  The Dollar Index is off a little over one-half per cent as we go to fetch this report to the server and back below the 90 mark.

The most interesting news to surface this morning came from Bank of America Merrill Lynch – a survey showing that fund managers have cut their bond portfolio allocations to their lowest level in 20 years.  This comes at a time when sovereign states – in particular China and Japan – have also cut bond purchases to the bone, while the U.S. government has launched a spending spree that will push deficits over the $1 trillion mark.  One wonders where the financing is going to come from in future years and how all of this is going to affect the bond market and interest rates.

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  With inflation concerns and expectations on the rise, I thought posting the gold-inflation adjusted chart a worthy enterprise. Its most helpful feature is that it shows us where the price of gold would have to go in order to match performance levels of the past once currency depreciation is taken into account. Most gold holders are interested in what the inflation-adjusted price of gold would need to be to match the 1979-1980 nominal high just under $900 per ounce.  The answer, as you can see, is about $2200 per ounce.  We should keep two things in mind when contemplating those numbers.  First, gold anticipates inflation, as it did in the 1970s run-up, so the $2200 number is by no means a ceiling.  Second, this chart is based on the Consumer Price Index measure of inflation which many analysts believe to be flawed and understated.
Share
Posted in all posts |

Rattled by U.S. fiscal, monetary tug-of-war, investors start looking abroad

Reuters/David Randall/2-13-2018

“The turmoil stems from a tug-of-war between monetary and fiscal policies: The Federal Reserve, which is mandated to keep inflation low and stable, and U.S. fiscal policy, which is adding stimulus with a $1.5 trillion Republican-led tax cut and an extra $300 billion over two years in federal spending as the central bank unloads bonds from its balance sheets. . .Underlying the push outside of U.S. assets is a fear of rising inflation, after years of ultra-loose monetary policy.”

MK note:  With this mentality in play, one would think that some of that loose capital would make its way to the gold market.

Share
Posted in all posts |

U.S. CPI report takes on bigger importance after markets plunge

Bloomberg/Katia Dmitrieva/2-13-2018

“Wednesday’s report on the U.S. consumer price index will be the most closely watched in recent memory, with investors seeking to understand the recent plunge in the stock and bond markets. They’ll probably need to look beyond the main numbers for the full story.”

Share
Posted in all posts |

Asia, Europe stocks drift down overnight

DJIA overnight trading implies open down 210. . . .A reversal from yesterday’s more than 400 point gain if current levels hold.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Commodities on cusp of supercycle

ETF.com/Sumit Roy/2-13-2018

Interview: Maxwell Gold, ETF Securities

“The commodity market tends to move in much longer periods than a traditional business or market cycle that stocks typically move in, or even a typical economic cycle, which historically has been about five to seven years. Commodity cycles are usually about 10 to 15 years long. We had a sell-off and an oversupply of commodities for the past several years. The turning point was 2016. Since then, we’ve been seeing a drawdown of the supply glut, as well as a reduction of output due to reduced capital investment and more supply discipline from a lot of producers, especially in the energy and mining sectors. . .The important takeaway is that we’re at the very early stage of this.”

MK note:  As go commodities, so goes gold.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold ETF holdings post weekly decline of 21 tons

Scrap Register/2-12-2018

“The slide in gold prices last week was accompanied by pronounced outflows from global exchange-traded funds, including 6.5 tons on Friday, said Commerzbank in a snippet. ‘The gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg decreased by a good 21 tons last week, thereby reversing the lion’s share of the inflows seen since the start of the year,’ Commerzbank added.”

MK note:  Evidence that hedge funds and institutions were liquidating ETF gold holdings to cover requirements in other aspects of their book.

Share
Posted in all posts |

Why gold will benefit from yen strength

Seeking Alpha/Cliff Droke/2-12-2018

“Although the IAU (below) has pulled back since peaking on Jan. 24, the yen’s recent strength suggests that turning outright bearish on the near-term gold outlook is premature. Coupled with gold’s recent increase in relative strength vs. the U.S. stock market (see Feb. 9 commentary), the continued strength in the yen suggests that the gold price will eventually reverse its recent decline and continue its intermediate-term recovery. Any additional gains made by the yen in the coming days will only serve to improve the short-term gold price outlook, for extended rallies in the yen are testaments to lingering safety concerns from which gold always will benefit.”

Share
Posted in all posts |

Gold up today on commodity strength across the spectrum

LATE REPORT

Gold ended higher today up $6.50 at $1322.50 pushed by rising commodity prices across the spectrum and some dollar weakness.  Silver also finished higher up 20¢ at $16.53. President Trump today announced an escalation of the trade wars with various (mostly Asian) countries by promising of a “reciprocal  tax” on their exports to the United States.

The markets in the days and weeks ahead will need to sort out how the burgeoning trade wars are going to affect the value of the dollar and the market for U.S. sovereign debt.  So, whereas the stock and bond market rose today for reasons no one could readily quantify, there are these looming trade, currency and debt problems that are quietly intensifying in the background and don’t seem to want to go away. Volatility was pushed to the background today, but possibly not for long. . . . . . .

Quote of the Day
“My job is not picking the top. My job has always been risk mitigation. Picking crashes is impossible… timing crashes is impossible. If you require a forecast in order for your investment thesis to do well, then I think you’re doing it wrong.” – Marc Spitznagel, Universa Investments


Looking for a full introduction to gold investing?
You will find it in our introductory information packet!

 • The rationale for gold ownership • How gold performs under various breakdown scenarios • Portfolio approaches • & More

We invite you to register today for free, immediate access to the packet. A subscription to our monthly newsletter is included with the packet.

–– Available to both current and prospective clientele ––


 

Share
Posted in all posts |

The 14 stages of investor emotions and trading psychology

OPTION ALPHA/Kirk du Plessis/2018

“The chart below is a visual representation of the 14 stages. . . This would be a great visual to print out and put in your office or desk to remind you to ask yourself: ‘Where am I right now?’”

Courtesy of OPTION Alpha / Click to enlarge

Jonathan Kosares note: It’s no secret investor emotions can have a profound impact on a market’s price action. From Euphoria, to Fear, to Panic, to Capitulation, each stage in a market’s ascent, or decline, can be assigned a particular emotion. Sometimes, such assignments are easier after the fact – sometimes they’re clear in the moment (Bitcoin ~$20,000 I’m looking at you). After two 1000+ point drops in the DOW last week, I began to wonder to myself what ‘emotional stage’ we might be in with the broader stock market at this point. I did some looking around, and found this phenomenal chart.

After reading the author Kirk du Plessis’ description of each emotional stage, I figure we’re somewhere smack dab in the middle of Anxiety, with a sprinkling of Denial. He describes the Anxiety/Denial stages as follows:

5. ANXIETY – Oh no – it’s turning around! The markets start to show their first signs of taking your “hard earned” gains back. But having never seen this happen, we still remain ultra greedy and think the long-term trend is higher.

6. DENIAL – The markets don’t turn as quickly as we had hoped. There must be something wrong we think to ourselves. Our “long-term” view now shortens to a near-term hope of an improvement.  Also note in the chart the bubble note…”Temporary setback.  I’m a long-term investor.”

Take a look at really any article out regarding the stock market right now, and they all say basically the same thing. “Buying opportunity.” “Long-term investor’s shouldn’t be concerned.” “Just a correction.” “Don’t Panic!” “Fundamentals are still strong.” “The market went up really quickly, so it only makes sense it would decline quickly too.”

A sampling if you don’t believe me…

Stock Market Got You Confused? – CNN Money
Don’t Panic:  Three Things Investors Should Do During a Correction – Forbes
Why Long-Term Investors Shouldn’t Sweat the Stock Market Correction – TheStreet.com

The characteristics (and language) of the Anxiety and Denial phases written into these articles is palpable. Just turn on CNBC for 10 minutes on one of these down days and you’ll get more of the same. And what’s interesting to me, is even though most articles out there have used the word ‘fear’, I don’t think we’ve even sniffed the “Fear” phase yet. But make no mistake about it – and despite the ‘relief’ bounces we’ve seen over the past few days – an ‘emotional’ shot has been fired across the bow. Two shots actually. And we’re probably just one more of these big tests to the downside away from full-on Denial, which will ‘hot knife through butter’ it’s way to the Fear phase. And then, look out, as it’s the Desperation/Panic/Capitulation phases that are typically associated with the biggest price declines.

But what about gold? Probably somewhere between Depression and Hope in my estimation. Retail investment demand remains down at multi-year lows (despite some forward progress on the price), but is showing signs of life. National anecdotal reports suggest that client selling at the retail level, a year ago overwhelming, has begun to subside.  And even recently, open challenges regarding the validity of gold’s ‘counter-cyclical’ foundation as an investment (i.e. why isn’t gold rising with the volatility in stocks) have been met by analysis/commentary from the most unexpected of places.

So my parting thought to our readers….

Which asset would you buy? The one gyrating frenetically between Anxiety and Denial, or the one quietly making it’s way from Depression to Hope? I, for one, would choose the asset glancing in it’s rearview mirror at the “Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity”

Share
Posted in all posts |