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Gold tracks marginally lower under generally muted market conditions

(USAGOLD – 7/16/2019) – Gold continued to track in a southerly direction this morning under generally muted conditions in most financial markets.  It is down $6 at the open of New York trading  at $1410.  Silver is up 2¢ at $15.42. Since the end of May, when gold staged a turnaround, it is up 8% as investors moved to safe-haven investments to counter a range of economic and political uncertainties.  Silver, not to be overlooked, is up 6.1% over the same period after yesterday’s unexpectedly strong showing.

For most a flight to safety means a flight to cash – at least temporarily if not on a longer term basis, but cash also has its downsides particularly if inflation – even modest inflation – becomes a factor in a period of declining interest rates.  “Cash over the long run is the worst performing asset class,” says Bridgewater Associate’s Ray Dalio in an interview with Goldman Sachs, “and therefore the riskiest asset class. So where do you go? To me, going to any one asset increases risk. So the best way to deal with the challenging environment I foresee is by diversifying well. . . [G]old is just an alternative currency to fiat paper currencies,” he goes on. “If your portfolio is likely to perform poorly in the adverse environment I’ve been describing—less effective monetary policy, the need to run larger fiscal deficits and monetize them, and challenging politics—the behavior of gold as alternative cash has some diversifying merit.” [Source:  Zero Hedge – 7/12/19]

Quote of the Day
“I find that for me, being a history buff makes it almost impossible not to be a believer in the metal that has been a fixture and sign of value and wealth since ancient times. I am a gold bug and have been since I first started in the commodities business in the early 1980s. There is no other asset that gives a person the same feeling than gold. Holding a kilo bar of the yellow metal is a feeling that no other investment can elicit.” – Andrew Hecht, Commodities Analyst, Seeking Alpha

Chart of the Day
Chart note:  Since the turn of the new century, gold has been a stellar performer rising fourteen of the nineteen years (if you include 2019 as of July 12).  The period featured a disinflationary economic bias dominated by investor concerns about the stability of global financial markets and systemic risks particularly in the period from 2000 to 2012.  Since then, the performance record has been less consistent.  Beginning in 2016, though, gold is back on solid footing with positive returns three of the past four years (once again counting 2019 at the mid-year point).


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