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Where are we in the market cycle?

where-are-we-in-the-market-cycle

TheFelderReport/Jesse Felder/10-15-2021

chart showing cycle of emotions from optimism to euphora to despondence and back eventually to optimism again
Click to enlarge

“Animal spirits have clearly sustained a damaging blow in recent months; whether that blow proves fatal, though, will be revealed in time. The fact that interest in day trading is plummeting stands in direct contrast to the fact that interest in getting help for stock market gambling addiction is soaring.”

USAGOLD note: By associating stock market investing in some quarters with gambling addiction, Felder goes where few in the mainstream media dare tread. He equates the current mania with the 2000 tech bubble and reminds his readers that some of the most highly traded stocks lost 90% of their value. He believes that we are now well past the “‘euphoria’ stage [of the market cycle, see above] into the ‘anxiety’ stage, headed for the ‘denial’ and ‘fear’ stages.”

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Transitory leads to permanent mistakes

transitory-leads-to-permanent-mistakes

Blain’s Morning Porridge/Bill Blain/10-19-2021

photgraph of Fed chairman Powell being interviewed for 60 Minutes

“Policy mistakes are a massive market risk. Don’t believe Central Banks and Politicians are omnipotent. The issue is defining what would be a policy mistake and what is a POLICY MISTAKE.”

USAGOLD note: Blain believes that central banks have “tripped themselves.” By selling the public on the idea inflation is transitory, they have made it permanent. Perhaps tripping themselves is not the correct description. Better said, they have tricked themselves into believing inflation is transitory, and that, in the end, could undermine the one thing central banks really rely upon to carry out monetary policy – the good faith of the public.

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The USAGOLD Website
A guiding light for our current and would-be clientele since 1997

graphic image of light house beaming
Welcome newcomers!

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1996), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 23-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning, we have grown to almost 800,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is a good place to start. 


Interested in gold but struggling to find the right firm?
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ORDER DESK: 1-800-869-5115 x100/orderdesk@usagold.com

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Perth Mint gold and silver bullion sales surge in September

perth-mint-gold-and-silver-bullion-sales-surge-in-september

CoinNews.net/Staff

Repost from 10-18-2021

photo of gold Australian Kangaroo“Demand for Australian bullion products surged in September, figures from The Perth Mint show, with sales of gold coins and bars the highest in five months and sales of silver coins and bars the best in three months. The Mint’s minted bullion sales not only surpassed those from the prior month but those of a year ago.”

USAGOLD note: The Perth Mint is seeing much better results than the U.S. Mint thus far in 2021 in terms of percentage growth. We need to keep in mind though that the U.S. Mint was down for a few months due to a changeover in coin design to the new American Eagle. Gold bullion coin sales for October for the gold American Eagles have been very strong – 121,500 troy ounces and already 6% over September sales.

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Current energy crisis is the ‘revenge of the old economy’

current-energy-crisis-is-the-revenge-of-the-old-economy

MarketWatch/Mark DeCambre

Repost from 10-18-2021

graphic image of 1970s reducs coming soon to an economy near you“‘It’s almost like everything that could go wrong, did go wrong,’ Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC, told MarketWatch in a phone interview. ‘It’s a multifaceted story,” said the energy specialist and former senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency.”

USAGOLD note: An overview of the factors driving the current energy crisis reminiscent of the 1970s. Goldman’s commodity research head Jeff Currie calls it “revenge of the old economy.”

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Gross says intermediate and long term bonds are in the ‘trash receptacle’

gross-says-intermediate-and-long-term-bonds-are-in-the-trash-receptacle

William H. Gross

Repost from 9-7-2021

image of bear peaking from behind a tree“Cash has been trash for a long time but there are now new contenders for the investment garbage can. Intermediate to long-term bond funds are in that trash receptacle for sure, but will stocks follow? Earnings growth had better be double-digit-plus or else they could join the garbage truck.”

USAGOLD note: Bill Gross, the investment guru who built Pimco, is bearish on the bond market. He thinks things are likely to go south in a hurry once the Fed takes its foot off the quantitative easing accelerator – a prospect he sees as happening “sometime in mid-2022.” He asks how will markets will absorb the 60% of net Treasury Department issuance now being absorbed by the Fed. That is a question worth pondering ……

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Silver through the ages

silver-through-the-ages

Visual Capitalist/BlackRockSilver

Repost from 9-7-2021

photograph of a silver statue from ancient times“Silver is one of the most versatile metals on Earth, with a unique combination of uses both as a precious and industrial metal. Today, silver’s uses span many modern technologies, including solar panels, electric vehicles, and 5G devices. However, the uses of silver in currency, medicine, art, and jewelry have helped advance civilization, trade, and technology for thousands of years.”

USAGOLD note: A quick look at silver’s importance in the wider world of science and technology – a foundational visualization for newcomers to the silver investment. (We are getting quite a few first-time silver buyers visiting the site and taking advantage of our online ordering venue.)

 

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The funding challenges ahead

the-funding-challenges-ahead

Seeking Alpha/Alasdair Macleod

Repost from 10-15-2021

image showing the blur of high speed money printing press running at full tilt“Funding any term debt in a rising interest rate environment is going to be considerably more difficult than when the underlying trend is for falling yields. There is the additional risk that foreigners overloaded with dollars and dollar-denominated financial assets are more likely to become sellers. Not only are foreigners overloaded with dollars and financial assets, but with bond yields rising and stock prices falling, foreigners for whom over-exposure to dollars is a speculative position going wrong will undoubtedly liquidate dollar assets and dollars. If not buying their own national currencies, they will stockpile commodities and energy for production, and precious metals as currency hedges instead.” [Emphasis added.]

USAGOLD note: Macleod explores the complex machinations behind massive money market mobilizations – in progress even as you read this post. The financial markets, he says, are having difficulty absorbing the massive stimulus created by the federal government and Federal Reserve. Eventually, in his opinion, as global entities and individuals gain a better grasp of the problem, they will move to preserve their purchasing power. He sees precious metals, as noted above, among the beneficiaries.

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Short and Sweet

short-and-sweet-54

Of 17th-century tulips, 21st-century stocks and ageless gold

antique painting of a fool trading his gold for tulip bulbs

During the Dutch Tulipmania, the price of one special, rare type of tulip bulb called Semper Augustus sold for 1000 guilders in 1623, 1200 guilders in 1624, 2000 guilders in 1625, and 5500 guilders in 1637. Shortly thereafter, the bottom fell out of the market and prices plummeted to 1/200 of their peak price – a mere 27 guilders. In the artwork above an individual, portrayed in fool’s garment, is shown trading a hefty pouch of gold for a handful of tulip bulbs. It is no mystery who got the better part of that bargain. History teaches us that no era is immune to financial mania including our own. As a matter of fact, a good many believe that we are fully immersed in a stock market mania (wherein many include bitcoin) right now.

Since the earliest days of the USAGOLD website (the mid-1990s), we have enshrined a quote from Thomas Bailey Aldrich at our home page: “The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it.” Aldrich’s axiom has held true down through the ages. It applied in ancient Greece and Rome, in 11th century China, in the time of the Medicis, the Dutch Tulipmania, the South Seas Bubble and French fiat money mania, during the long string of panics in the late nineteenth and early 20th centuries (Aldrich’s time), the spate of post World War I and II hyperinflations (Austria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, et al)  and it still applies today.


Ready to swap tulips for gold?
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Will silver finally realise its potential? I’ve no idea – but I’ve just bought a load

will-silver-finally-realise-its-potential-ive-no-idea-but-ive-just-bought-a-load

MoneyWeek/Dominic Frisby

Repost from 10-15-2021

Photo stacks of silver bullion coins
“I did something I haven’t done in what feels like a long time yesterday: I bought silver. Quite a lot of it. You know my views on silver: it might have bucket loads of potential – almost more than any other metal – but it never delivers.”

USAGOLD note: Welcome to the logically illogical world of Dominic Frisby ……

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Gold tracks sideways in quiet trading
Hathaway says loss of faith in the Fed could be ‘the number one game-changer’ for gold

(USAGOLD – 10/21/2021) – Gold tracked sideways in quiet early U.S. trading as investors weighed the potential impact of the Evergrande meltdown in China, growing indications of global stagflation, and the future size and scope of the Fed’s tapering program. It is down $1.50 at $1782. Silver is down 19¢ at $24.19. This nugget of wisdom from Sprott’s John Hathaway on the tapering controversy caught our attention yesterday:

“Notwithstanding the wide array of bullish considerations (all of which deserve paragraphs of exposition that have been written elsewhere and are omitted here for the sake of brevity), the number one game-changer for gold could be a loss of faith in the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. Unshakeable confidence in the Fed’s stewardship of the financial system and the economy has been the anchor for the bull market in financial assets. That trust is at great risk, in our opinion, when (and if) tapering begins.”  (For details, please see It’s Show Time for the Fed).

Chart of the Day

overlay chart showing gold ETF inflows and outflows and the price of gold
Chart courtesy of the World Gold Council • • • Click to enlarge

Chart note: Analysts point to ETF inventory flows as an indicator of price direction because that is where institutional interest manifests itself. At the moment, institutions are essentially out of the gold market – neither buyers nor sellers, as shown in the chart. Note, too, the close correlation between price advances and declines and ETF inflows and outflows. Behavior among funds and institutions, we will add, is mercurial. The present indifference could turn to strong interest in a heartbeat given the proper impetus.

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The Roman Empire reminds us that confidence in the currency is crucial

the-roman-empire-reminds-us-that-confidence-in-the-currency-is-crucial

Real Clear Markets/Rob Smith and George Maher/10-18-2021

“If someone is worried that the $1,000 they have stashed away in an account for a rainy day will not be worth as much as in three months, they will go out and spend that money. Increased spending will drive prices up further making existing savings worth less. Just as in the Weimar Republic or Venezuela today – despite the latter’s efforts to improve the situation by introducing official cryptocurrencies – money will become worthless.”

USAGOLD note: When citizen-investors lose faith in money, we will add, they often turn to gold. They did so in ancient Rome during the centuries-long debasement of the silver denarius, and they are doing it now to hedge the debasement of paper currencies.


Related please see
NEWS & VIEWS SPECIAL REPORT
March 2020

Hedging the decline and fall of a currency

The baseline case for gold hasn’t changed much in 1700 years

“We sometimes forget that inflation is a process rather than an event. One of the better-known examples of that axiom is the nearly two centuries-long debasement of Rome’s silver denarius – an inflationary episode Jack Whyte, a writer of historical fiction, skillfully addresses in his latest novel, The Burning Stone.” [MORE]

graphic image showing decline of the denarius over 200 y ears

Graphic illustration courtesy of VisualCapitalist.com • • • Click to enlarge

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Stock markets are now addicted to stimulus – and central banks have no exit plan, Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd says

stock-markets-are-now-addicted-to-stimulus-and-central-banks-have-no-exit-plan-guggenheims-scott-minerd-says

Markets Insider/Shalini Nagarajan/10-19-2021

“Minerd said central banks are acting in a way they have never done before. ‘The role of the central bank was to provide marginal liquidity at the times of crisis, and then to withdraw it after the economy started to stabilize and come back,’ Minerd said. ‘Central banks are now running the markets.'”

USAGOLD  note: If one were to accept Minerd’s conclusions, and there is plenty of evidence that his assumptions are correct, the obvious questions are: Where does all of this lead us? Are we on a permanent high or heading blindfolded for the gangplank?

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Notable Quotable

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“I have a theory that computers started to suck when dumb people started to use them. The same is also true of precious metals, which turned into a speculative football in 2011. Those geeks are gone, and only the die-hards are left — the shiny rocks passed from weak hands to strong hands.”

Jared Dillian
NewsMax Finance

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Carl Icahn says the market over the long run will certainly ‘hit the wall’ because of money printing

carl-icahn-says-the-market-over-the-long-run-will-certainly-hit-the-wall-because-of-money-printing

CNBC/Yun Li/10-18-2021

cartoon image of stock market bear watching ticker“Longtime activist investor Carl Icahn said Monday that the U.S. markets could see major challenges over the long term in the face of excessive money supply and rising inflation.”

USAGOLD note: Not the prognosis Wall Street wants to hear from one of its most respected practitioners …… Icahn shied away from making a call on the timing.

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Inflation isn’t transitory – but what does that mean for markets?

inflation-isnt-transitory-but-what-does-that-mean-for-markets

MoneyWeek/John Stepek/10-14-2021

“As John Authers puts it on Bloomberg, ‘there’s no longer any sensible way to dismiss this inflation episode as merely transitory.’ Even if you get rid of ‘volatile’ stuff like energy, food, housing and used vehicles (yes, I imagine you too may be wondering by this point what’s left), inflation is still above 3%, which is its highest level in 28 years, says Authers.”

USAGOLD note: Stepek offers a comprehensive overview of the inflation situation and what it might portend that makes its way eventually to endorsing gold as a hedge. “[T]he reason that gold tends to do well in inflationary times,” he says, “is not because of inflation as such, it’s because when inflation goes up, ‘real’ interest rates (that is, interest rates adjusted for inflation) go down. Gold historically does well when real interest rates are falling.”

overlay line chart showing the real rate of return and the gold price 2017 to present
Chart courtesy of Merk Investments • • • Click to enlarge

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Inconceivable? Yields are defying all expectations

inconceivable-yields-are-defying-all-expectations

Bloomberg/John Authers/10-14-2021

“In the case of 10-year TIPS yields for the U.S., they have managed to fall once again below the once-inconceivable minus-1% level. Yields like that are not supposed to happen, and certainly not when the economy is growing and people are worried about inflation.”

USAGOLD note: Authers ties together presidential politics, bond yields, and inflation. He concludes with a question: “Can I summarize this neatly?” And answers: “No not really.” But between thesis and final conclusion, he offers much to consider including a return to a theme he first advanced months ago: How do we go about dealing with the consequences of a paradigm change from low inflation and interest rates to the polar opposite? There are a couple of time-tested options we might suggest along those lines and both now seem to be priced favorably.

 

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Gold is the investment for All Seasons

Looking to prepare your portfolio for whatever uncertainty lies ahead?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE
ORDER DESK: 1-800-869-5115 x100/orderdesk@usagold.com

ORDER GOLD & SILVER ONLINE 24-7

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Resources are in corrective mode, what will it take for the gold price to move

resources-are-in-corrective-mode-what-will-it-take-for-the-gold-price-to-move

Gold-Eagle/Adrian Day

Repost from 10-14-2021

graphic image of lines in the sand pointing higher“The big question on gold investors’ minds, for good reason, is why gold is not higher given the unprecedented money printing and rising inflation. The second question is when will it change? To some extent, gold has simply been in a long consolidation after the extraordinary move early last year, when gold jumped over 30% from its end-March low to early-August high. That kind of move – in four months – is extraordinary for an asset that is intended as a hedge and an insurance. Gold is not supposed to do that. Bitcoin…Tesla…perhaps, but not gold!”

USAGOLD note: As of yesterday, we finally got some movement in the gold price in response to the increasing inflation rate. There is a growing sense that inflation might be more persistent than previously believed. “The longer gold meanders in its current trading range,” says long-time market analyst Adrian Day, “the faster and stronger the eventual move will be.”

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