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Gold Underpinned as Focus Shifts to AHCA Vote

by Peter A. Grant

March 23, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold remains generally well bid, although earlier tests above important resistance at 1250 have faltered. While continued weakness in the dollar should limit the downside in the yellow metal, a bit of a reprieve in the stock market is probably limiting the upside.

Everyone is keyed on the AHCA House vote today as a proxy for President Trump's broader reflation agenda. The feeling being that as goes the AHCA vote, so goes deregulation, tax reform, trade deals and fiscal stimulus. Pretty much everything that had markets so excited in the wake of last November's election results.

The best case is that the reflation trade gets delayed for some period of time as the GOP sorts out their differences on healthcare. The worst case would be a complete derailing of the Trump agenda.

The biggest casualty of such an outcome would probably be the stock market, which went from bubbly to positively frothy in recent months. We have already seen risk appetite dissipate this week, to the benefit of Treasuries and gold as safe haven buying ramped up. If AHCA fails to clear the house, those trends are likely to accelerate.

The most recent speculation suggest somewhere between 27 and 32 Republican representatives are either hard "no", or leaning "no". If accurate, AHCA will not pass. Rather than allowing that to happen, leadership would likely postpone the vote in the hope of building additional support.

However, that too would be seen as a negative outcome. Stocks would likely fall. Treasuries would rally, pushing yields lower. That would put additional pressure on the dollar. All of that would be positive for gold.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

 

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mkMichael J. Kosares, the author of these articles, has more than 40 years experience in the gold business. He is the founder and executive director of USAGOLD (both the website and gold brokerage service), the author of three books on the gold market, and the editor of "News & Views, Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals," the firm's client letter. He has written numerous magazine and internet essays and is well-known for his ongoing commentary on the gold market and its economic, political and financial underpinnings.

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