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Gold Well Contained Ahead of ECB Meeting, NFP Report

by Peter A. Grant

March 04, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is well contained around the $1200 level as investors await further directional cues. Market impetus may come from tomorrow's ECB meeting, or Friday's release of U.S. jobs data for February.

The ECB is expected to release additional information on their aggressive QE program tomorrow; likely revealing further details about the type of assets it will buy and when those purchases will actually begin. Expectations are that the ECB will begin that €1 trillion+ asset purchase program pretty quickly, perhaps first thing next week.

Consensus for U.S. nonfarm payrolls is running around +240k. This morning's release of the ADP employment survey was a modest disappointment, and the employment components of recent PMI data have been mixed.

Nonetheless, amid ongoing uncertainty over the timing of the first Fed rate hike, a NFP beat would likely pull those rate hike expectations back toward June. A miss, would push expectations back toward December. I personally remain skeptical that we'll see a rate hike this year.

Chicago Fed governor Charles Evans — perhaps not surprisingly, given his dovish disposition — concurs. Citing "serious concerns about excessively low inflation," Evans said today that he favors continued "patience” and no rate hikes until 2016.

Given the latest round of 11-year highs in the dollar index, the yellow metal has actually been pretty resilient of late. While dollar strength may be limiting the upside somewhat, there are plenty of risks out there, providing compelling reasons for buying gold at these levels.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

 

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