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Gold Defensive on Renewed Dollar Strength

by Peter A. Grant

December 09, AM
(from --

Gold turned defensive once again within the range after upbeat U.S. data this morning further buoyed the dollar. The greenback was already being driven higher by recent weakness in the euro.

U.S. wholesale sales rose more than expected in October and preliminary consumer sentiment in December looks pretty robust. The latter may translate into a solid holiday shopping season, but we'll have to wait for more data.

All eyes are on next week's FOMC meeting. A 25 bps rate hike is broadly expected, although I think the point made by Danielle DiMartino Booth that I noted in yesterday's DMR is a good one:
"If [Janet Yellen] wants to be truly apolitical, she holds off in December. Because we've already seen tightening." — Danielle DiMartino Booth That is very true. The 10-year note is up a whopping 40 basis points since election day. Mortgage rates are at levels not seen in 2-years. Does the Fed dare hike rates in such an environment? Last year's tightening was a credibility play and they hiked into weakness, this year they have better data, but the markets have already provided considerably tighter monetary conditions. I still think they pull the trigger, but I think there will need to be a discussion about the potential implications.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.


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