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Gold Turns Mildly Corrective as Dollar Catches a Bid

by Peter A. Grant

July 27, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold has turned mildly corrective as the dollar staged a bounce from the new 13-mnth low set in earlier trading. While this morning's better than expected U.S. data may have sparked some short covering in the greenback, the more dovish Fed bias suggests that these gains are corrective as well.

In the wake of this week's FOMC meeting, Fed funds future now put the probability of a September rate hike at 0%. It would seem that markets need to further unwind previous hawkishness, which should keep the dollar under pressure and gold underpinned.

Tomorrow we'll get our first look at Q2 GDP. Expectations are running at +2.5%. Following this morning's much better than expected June durable goods orders, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is now projecting 2.8%. However, that is still way down from early forecasts that were north of 4%.

An miss on growth — certainly anything sub-2% — would likely take a December rate hike off the table. It would also raise considerable doubts about balance sheet normalization commencing this year. That would send the dollar reeling, pushing gold back above $1300 for the first time since last November.

Such a move could signal an early end to the summer doldrums. The quiet summer months has more often than not proven to be an excellent time to buy gold, ahead of the cyclical pressures that tend to drive the price higher in the fall.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

 

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mkMichael J. Kosares, the author of these articles, has more than 40 years experience in the gold business. He is the founder and executive director of USAGOLD (both the website and gold brokerage service), the author of three books on the gold market, and the editor of "News & Views, Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals," the firm's client letter. He has written numerous magazine and internet essays and is well-known for his ongoing commentary on the gold market and its economic, political and financial underpinnings.

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