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Gold Rebounds From Test of Recent Range Low

by Peter A. Grant

July 25, AM
(from --

Gold retested the low end of the recent range, weighed by continued firmness in the dollar associated with the latest uptick in Fed rate hike expectations. However, $1310 has contained the downside thus far and a firmer intraday tone has emerged.

The Fed's latest 2-day FOMC meeting begins tomorrow. When they announce policy on Wednesday, they are widely expected to hold steady. The statement will be closely scrutinized for any hints of renewed hawkishness. The probability for a September hike have edged back up to 19.5% from 14.7% on Friday. We've seen this unfold time and time again...

The BoJ is expected to offer additional accommodations when they announce policy on Friday. PM Abe is viewing the resounding electoral victory in Upper House elections as a mandate to continue with Abenomics. It seems unlikely that Abe and Kuroda would squander the momentum. We could see both a rate cut and further expansion of the QQE program.

The ECB and BoE may be looking to ease further at their next meetings as well. The SNB is watching this situation closely as well and will likely respond in some manner with easing of there own. "The franc remains significantly overvalued, it’s a big concern for us." said SNB President Thomas Jordan.

According to a recent Bloomberg survey, participants believe the SNB could take the deposit rate as low as -1.25% before investors start hoarding francs. The deposit rate is presently -0.75%.

Again, with everyone else pretty clearly biased toward further easing, the Fed really doesn't need to do a thing in order to be hawkish. If they do decide to tighten later this year, arguably it might end up being too hawkish.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.


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