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Gold Corrects Modestly, but Appears Poised for 4th Consecutive Higher Weekly Close

by Peter A. Grant

January 23, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold turned corrective on Friday, slipping from the 5-month high established Thursday at 1307.59. Despite the pullback, the yellow metal appears poised for its fourth consecutive weekly higher close.

The euro continued its tumble today, dropping to an 11-year low against the dollar at 1.1113. Euro weakness is perpetuating the rally in the dollar, which is being seen by some as a limiting factor on the upside for gold. However, gold and the dollar have been rallying in tandem in recent weeks.

Weakness in the euro accelerated with Mario Draghi's confirmation on Thursday that the ECB would launch QE beginning in March. Prior to the announcement, the market was expecting €50 bln a month in asset purchase, for a total of €600 bln. What they got instead was a pledge for €60 bln a month for 18-months, or €1.08 trillion. That's a whopping 80% more QE than expected!

Not to be outdone, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggested today that further measures may be considered. "There are plenty of occasions to assess and reassess economic forecasts, including inflation forecasts, and if necessary we can adjust monetary policy," Kuroda said at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "At any time, if necessary, we can make additional measures to support gradual acceleration of inflation toward 2 percent," Kuroda said.

Of course, nobody does QE bigger and badder than the BoJ. But with the euro tumbling to 16-month lows against the yen, Kuroda assuredly feels that Draghi is stealing the inflation he has worked so hard to manufacture through yen debasement. This is the essence of a currency war.

One has to wonder how long the Fed will sit idly by as the dollar soars and U.S. exporters moan about their loss of competitiveness. Dollar strength also makes the Fed's inflation target increasingly difficult to achieve. When the time comes for the Fed to steal inflation (or export deflation), it will start with hints that their first rate hike may not come until H2. Then sometime in 2016. And sometime down the road, I wouldn't be surprised at all to hear talk of QE4.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.


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