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USAGOLD Analysis & Commentary

Has Europe declared war on the weak dollar?
Collateral damage for gold?

Golden Gut Check
Why gold is likely to keep moving higher over the long term

As gold crosses $1000...
A comment on gold as savings

Will Gold Catch Up With Crude Prices?
In the time ahead, gold will not only have to rise, it will have to rise faster than oil

7 Steps to Become a Happy 1st-time Gold Investor
How to make the right decisions
Gold Forecast for 2008

Kosares aims at fourth-straight annual success

Gold Price Relativity
What gold owners can learn from the stock bull market of the 1990s

Top 25 Quotes on the Credit Crisis of 2007
USAGOLD Market Update 8/27/07

Gold's Seasonal Price Trends
A simple but useful insight

Disturbing Trends 2007 Update
The Dollar Under Siege - Special Commentary

The Coming Dollar Devaluation
What it means to you as a gold owner

Gold Market Volatility
Has it changed the reasons for physical gold ownership?

USAGOLD PressRoom -- Article Archive

 

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The Morning Gold Report by Peter A. Grant
Gold Gains Falter Shy of $890

May 09, a.m.
(USAGOLD) -- Gold edge closer to the $900 level in earlier trading, but have since retreated into the range on news that the US trade deficit narrowed more than expected in Mar. Nonetheless, the recent gains are encouraging. A softer dollar tone and another round of new record highs in oil should continue to support the yellow metal.

There was a very interesting article in the FT yesterday (linked in Market Movers below) that suggests the "commodities boom may not be the bubble imagined." The IMF has expressed considerable concern over global inflation.

John Lipsky, IMF deputy managing director said that the surge in commodity prices "appear to be fundamental in nature." This is a point that was highlighted, with respect to gold, in Mike Kosares' excellent article Golden Gut Check from 07-Apr.

Mr. Kosares concluded the following: The fundamentals lead us to the conclusion that there has been real substance to the gold rally of the past two years -- a rally which has taken the price 75% higher. Those who have called gold's up trend the latest in a string of speculative bubbles do so from a lack of perspective and understanding. Likewise, the fundamentals hold out promise for the future in that none of the trends in place are likely to reverse anytime soon. We are left with the impression that the gold bull market is likely to stay on course in 2008, even if we experience a short-term correction or two.

The theory that fundamentals are to blame for surging commodities is echoed in a Wall Street Journal article today (linked in Market Movers below).

Those subscribing to the 'bubble theory' are placing far too much emphasis on US demand, or the anticipated slackening of demand as the US economy slows. As we have stated on numerous occasions, any drop in US demand has been and is likely to continue to be offset by growing demand from emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil.

The fact that the dollar remains in a long-term downtrend further exacerbates the problem, making dollar priced commodities comparatively less expensive to holders of other currencies, thereby increasing demand.

Investor demand may indeed be adding some froth to the market. However, if the underlying fundamentals for a wide array of commodities remain favorable -- rising demand and tighter supplies -- it discredits the 'bubble' scenario to a large degree and lends considerable credence to the 'super-cycle' scenario.

The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev first put forth the theory that commodities move in 50-60 year cycles in the 1920s. He suggested that commodity prices rose during periods of increased capital investment and fell as those investments lose value. He observed that the average upswing lasted 24 years and the average downswing averaged 29 years, a complete cycle of 53 years.

Kondratiev noted three major commodity upswings: 1789 to 1814, during the French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars; 1849 to 1873, the age of European industrialization; and 1896 to 1920, when the US emerged as an economic juggernaut.

Kondratiev was killed in 1938 during Stalin's purges, but if you project forward, an approximate 29-year drop in commodities was due between 1920 and 1949. This period included the Great Depression and the Second World War.

Another 31-year upswing would have taken us through the inflationary 1970s, to the peaks for oil and gold in 1980. Another 22 years beyond that would take us to the point from which the latest upswing began in 2001. Viewed another way, 53 years from 1949 would have projected the next cycle to begin in 2002.

Not a bad piece of forecasting for a young economist that never saw his 47th birthday.

Projecting forward once again, we might expect the upswing that we're presently in to last 24 years. That would suggest that we're less than a third of the way through the present upswing. Put in that context, $200 oil and $2400 gold seem to be fairly reasonable longer-term objectives. It also makes a sub-$900 purchase of gold seem a relative bargain.

The necessary capital investment Kondratiev spoke of now seems to be coming from the explosive growth of developing countries. In 2025-2026 might we be looking back on the current upswing as the age of the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China)?

Another important component of a super-cycle upswing is inflation compounded by the rampant growth of money supply. The IMF has made it clear, as has the ECB, the BoE and to a lesser degree the Fed, that they are supremely concerned about the accelerating pace of inflation.

As for the rampant growth of money supply -- well we've certainly seen that in spades in recent years.

When you do reflect back on the present market conditions from some point in the future, will you be looking back with a sense of satisfaction; knowing you made a sound decision to preserve your wealth with purchases of physical gold from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals?

Gold Market Movers:

US trade deficit narrowed in Mar to $58.2 bln, versus $61.7 bln in Feb.

Canada trade surplus widened in Mar to C$5.5 bln.

Canadian employment for Apr +19.2k, better than expected. Unemployment rate 6.1%.

French industrial production for Mar came in weak at -0.8% m/m.

IMF warns on global inflation

WSJ: Economists blame food, fuel run-ups on fundamentals

Lots of froth does not mean a bubble

Call options bet on oil hitting $200

Stock index futures suggest a lower open on Wall Street.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

Afternoon Report
Gold closes nearly $11 higher on day

The COMEX June gold futures contract closed up $10.90 Thursday at $882.10, trading between $866.40 and $887.00

May 8, p.m. excerpts:
(from MarketWatch)
--
Gold futures closed with strong gains Thursday, as weakness in the U.S. dollar underpinned demand for the precious metal. Gold for June delivery rose $10.90 to end at $882.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, gold closed $6.50 lower at $871.20 an ounce, after climbing nearly $27 over the previous three trading sessions. The dollar was modestly lower Thursday, losing ground to the euro and the pound after both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England both decided to hold policy steady.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet cited inflation risks in his statement, further bolstering the common currency. "I am seeing the dollar catch a new wave of selling, which continues to push gold higher," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial. "I also think we can't discount the strong moves in crude and their staying power so far," Oxman said. Crude-oil futures fell from record territory, pulling back after gaining nearly 10% in the past four sessions...more
(from Bloomberg) --
Crude oil touched a record $123.93 a barrel yesterday. Gold has trailed advances in oil since setting a record at $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17. The metal has gained 5.3 percent as oil rallied 28 percent this year.
"Gold is undervalued," said Nick Ruggiero, a trader at Eagle Futures Inc. in New York. "There's still some inflationary concern in the market. Overall, gold is cheaper to buy than crude right now." Ruggiero added, "We've seen strong buying each time gold has pulled back." The dollar fell as the U.K.'s London-based central bank kept its base interest rate steady at 5 percent after three 25 basis-point cuts from 5.75 percent in early December. The ECB, based in Frankfurt, has kept its benchmark refinancing rate steady at 4 percent since June 2007. The Federal Reserve in Washington has lowered the target U.S. bank-lending rate seven times to 2 percent from 5.25 percent in September...more

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Archive of Notable Stories and Gold News
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The Gilded Opinion

Gold's downturn to be limited - says BlackRock (ThomsonFin 5/2)
Gold's march higher may have stalled in recent weeks but still-strong demand, limited supply and the possibility of further jitters in the economy mean the longer term upward trend is far from over, BlackRock's head of resources Graham Birch said. "What drove gold above $1,000 was an extreme amount of fear that the financial world was in great peril and it was hours away from a cataclysmic collapse," said Birch. U.S. central bank intervention and moves by major banks to repair some of the damage inflicted by the credit crunch have eased those fears, but investor interest in commodities as alternative assets remains strong.

Crisis in food prices threatens worldwide starvation (GlobalRsrch 4/24)
Rising worldwide food prices are resulting in shortages, riots and protests, promises by governments to expand food aid, expressions of concern by international bodies like the World Bank, and stress on household budgets even in developed countries like the U.S.

All that glitters in tough times is probably gold (stuff.nz 4/22)
Conditions still favour gold. Gold prices rose in recent weeks as record oil prices and continued weakness in the dollar encouraged investors to buy into bullion. With crude prices touching a record, gold's role as a hedge against rising inflation has seen the precious metal move higher.

Chinese increasingly buy gold as wages rise (AFP 4/21)
"The stock market is not as good as before and people do not feel safe parking all their savings in banks." says Lin Yuhui, analyst at China International Futures. "So they tend to buy gold as a means to hedge inflationary risks."

Citibank to reduce market-making ops in gold (MktWtch 4/21)
"We continue to make aggressive markets in precious metals for our customers, and when it suits us we will also make markets for our competitors. We are no longer going to be part of the obligatory market-making scheme for our competitors," said a Citibank spokesman. Citibank said it stopped making the obligatory spot, forwards and options markets for other banks since late autumn. Citibank services the precious metals markets 24 hours a day from its London and Singapore offices. [Market makers are price makers and are obliged to display bid and offer prices. Most traders are so-called price takers - they get to pick and choose when to get in and get out of the market.]

India may soon fix gold prices for global market (IANS 4/21)
India, one of the leading gold consumers in the world, may soon manage to move from being a mere "price taker" to a "price maker" in the world of royal metal. Tired of the wild fluctuations of gold price in the London Bullion Market and its impact on Indian market, Bombay Bullion Association (BBA), in collaboration with Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE), IT People (India) Ltd and Reliance Money Ltd, has decided to set up its own trading platform for gold. "We want to launch it in a month's time."

The appeal of gold (Fortune 4/17)
The hard-core survivalists, however, share some overlap with the moderates in that the value of the dollar is a perpetual concern. The moderates would point out that while the dollar is unlikely to fall into total worthlessness, it's getting a bit more worthless day by day -- a slow but inevitable crumbling of social infrastructure and economic systems.

S.Africa gold output falls 28% (Reuters 4/10)
South African gold output fell 28.2 percent year-on-year in February in volume terms, while total minerals production fell by 7.3 percent, official data showed.

Lehman bailed out money market & cash funds (Blmbrg 4/10)
Managers of money market funds have spent more than $4 billion to prop up money funds that were supposed to have investments that were the safest outside of bank deposits and government debt.

IMF to shed staff and sell gold (FT 4/8)
IMFThe board voted yesterday to cut 15% of its staff and sell about $11bn in gold reserves in one of the biggest shake-ups of its funding since it was founded. The IMF plan to cut 380 jobs and sell 403.3 tonnes of gold, about an eighth of its reserves, still must be approved by the US Congress, which is unlikely to happen until after the presidential elections this year. The drying up of loans [to nations in financial crisis, which was its main source of income,] had set the organisation up for a $400m funding shortfall by 2010.
[According to a related article by Reuters: An IMF official said, "We would either sell to the market or, if we can, sell it to a central bank" at market prices.]

Markets still 'impaired', Fed urges action (Blmbrg 4/3)
New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner said capital markets are still "substantially impaired" and policy makers and financial industry leaders must "act forcefully" to stem the crisis. "What we were observing in U.S. and global financial markets was similar to the classic pattern in financial crises." The current financial crisis is the worst since the Great Depression, billionaire George Soros said in an interview yesterday. "This will probably not prove to be the final bottom" in financial markets, he said.

Bernanke defends Bear Stearns rescue (AP 4/3)
financial crisisIn his testimony Wednesday, Bernanke said the Fed and other government agencies were informed on March 13 that without help Bear Stearns would have to file for bankruptcy the next day. He said that "the damage caused by a default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain." ... "We did what we did because we felt it was necessary to preserve the integrity and viability of the American financial system, which in turn is critical for the health of the economy," Bernanke said.

China's great leap into bullion investment (WSJ 4/2)
...new ways to invest in gold are rapidly popping up in developing countries. It's transforming the market for one of mankind's most venerable ways to sock away wealth. The door is opening to a new class of investors who previously wouldn't have had access to gold futures and other tools. Their rush to invest has helped fuel soaring prices. Only in 2002 did investors in China get the ability to trade physical gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, though individuals couldn't invest in actual bullion until 2005.

Analysts See Gold Decline As Profit-Taking Correction (DJ 4/1)
"You've got to bear in mind the spectacular nature of the rally" prior to the pullback the last two weeks...

Gilded Opinion - Rocket School of Economics
The Broken Watch - Part 1

This is a country in debt up to its neck. Its citizens have no savings and the means for maintaining the debt game have been exhausted. The idea of using ones home equity -- which was the result of inflating house prices -- as a form of savings is over. Those who have aided and abetted this insidious scheme are now finding this out for themselves. The banking system has no fallback position.
Also... The Broken Watch - Part 2

Central Banks Case Study: Switzerland's gold sales (Mineweb 3/26)
The SNB has stressed that gold remains an important comment of the balance sheet and the implication is that this current programme is likely to be the last for the time being.

BlackRock says gold record high may be challenged (Reuters 3/26)
Investment manager BlackRock expects tight gold supply and a gradual rising trend in the price which could lift the metal to new highs.

Next Stop: $2000 gold (SeekingAlpha 3/24)
...the Fed is exercising its right to print money with renewed abandon, comforted by the short term validation of its strategy afforded by the Dow's responsive surge. ... The general feeling on Wall Street is one of suppressed awe for the utter absence of hesitation the Fed chairman has demonstrated in the face of the crisis. His creativity and resourcefulness during this time is admirable. The next 10 to 12 weeks are going to be no less chaotic then we've those we've been enjoying in 2008. This is what Ben Bernanke is facing next, and the only real weapon left in the arsenal is more cash, which is okay for the short term, but the dollar is becoming more and more worthless with every billion dollar bailout.

CHINA: Investors keen despite gold price dip (CCTV 3/24)
Big swings in global prices for gold and a sluggish stock market have triggered a rush to invest in the yellow metal.

Faltering market conditions could push gold to $1,800/oz within year (TF 3/17)
In the shadow of Sunday's "bailout" of Bear Stearns "conditions in the major financial markets have deteriorated further, which we believe increases the probability of a sharp upward spiral in the gold price," analyst Paradigm Capital Analyst Don MacLean said. He now believes there is a 40% to 50% chance that gold will reach $1,800/oz within a year, up from a previous estimate of a 25% chance back in January.

Worth Lingering:

Gilded Opinion -- How to invest in commodities... Our lives depend on commodities yet most are too afraid to invest in them. History is dotted with massive bull-markets in commodities, which occurred regularly. In fact, over the past 200 years, we had five major booms in natural resources. The shortest boom I could find lasted 15 years, and the longest one continued for 40 years!

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