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Gold Steadies Into Weekend, Holding Midweek Gains

by Peter A. Grant

September 23, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is maintaining a consolidative tone headed into the weekend, but gains recorded midweek after the announcement of BoJ and Fed policy are being sustained. It would be nice to see some upside follow-through within the wedge pattern to put the high for the year at 1375.15 back in play.


FedSpeak is back underway today and thus far it's been a bit of a mixed bag: Boston Fed's Rosengren favors "modest, gradual tightening" now, lest we put the duration and sustainability of the recovery at risk; so sooner rather than later would be better. On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari is more worried about raising rates too fast than too slowly; so later rather than sooner. Dallas Fed's Kaplan is appearing at Texas Oil and Gas Association event today, but I haven't seen any quotes yet.

I'd expect the overall bias of FedSpeak in the weeks ahead to be focused on attempting to build expectations for a December rate hike. We've played that game many times over at this point and folks are perhaps finally getting wise. Savvy investors will hopefully be paying much more attention to incoming economic data versus Fed's jawboning. Talk is cheap!

As for the data, I'd be watching August durable goods orders on Wednesday and the third report on Q2 GDP on Thursday. Another negative print is expected for the former and while an upward revision in Q2 GDP to 1.4% (from 1.1%) is anticipated, that's still going to leave the annualized rate of growth below 2%.
Recent economic gauges, including evidence of a slowdown in August hiring, suggest the economy could be constrained for the rest of the year to a growth rate only slightly above the expansion’s overall 2% pace—the weakest of any since World War II. — WSJ

Personal income and PCE for August is out next Friday. Both are expected to remain tepid at best.

So, with hopes for more robust growth into year end fading and inflation in check as well, arguably there is little reason for the Fed to really be considering a rate hike. Of course the situation was very similar into year-end 2015 and they did nudge rates off the zero-bound in what was likely a credibility play.

Is the Fed worried about their credibility again? They should be . . .

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

 

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