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Gold Regains $1300 On Geopolitical Tensions and Weaker Stocks

by Peter A. Grant

Jul 25, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold rebounded ahead of the weekend, trading back above the $1300 level. Persistent geopolitical risks and weaker stocks are offering support to the yellow metal. However, a firm dollar remains an impediment on the upside.

The dollar index jumped to a new 5-month highs, more on euro weakness than any true dollar strength. A surprise decline in German business sentiment was the catalyst for a drop in the single currency to an 8-month low.

The dollar got an additional boost from a slightly better than expected U.S. durable goods print for June, but it wasn't enough to recoup the terrible (negatively revised) 1.0% decline seen in May. Accordingly, there have been further negative revisions to Q2 GDP expectations.

Evident growth risks in Europe continue to stoke expectations that the ECB will have to ease further in an effort to prevent yet another retreat into recession. While U.S. economic data continues to encourage the optimists, it hasn't been robust enough to to swing the pessimists.

U.S. advance Q2 GDP comes out next week. Median expectations are running around +2.9%, which strikes me as wildly optimistic in light of the -2.9% Q1 results and the data that have come out subsequently. Certainly, if the advance number is sub-2%, expectations of a Fed rate hike would likely get pushed toward the end of 2015. If the number is really bad, the Fed may have to consider un-tapering at that point to avert recession; or at a minimum try to ensure it's a short recession.

Meanwhile, fighting rages in Ukraine, Gaza and Syria:

Ukrainian Troops Recapture Rebel Stronghold of Lysychansk After Fierce Fighting
West Bank Protests Grow as Israel, Hamas Fighting in Gaza Rages
Syria conflict: Isis 'overruns' Raqqa military base

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

 

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