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Gold Retreats Within the Range

by Peter A. Grant

April 20, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is on the defensive, back below $1200, but still well within the recent range. The yellow metal is being weighed by a firmer dollar and persistent expectations of a 2015 Fed rate hike as investors look ahead to next week's FOMC meeting.

The dollar is getting the short-end of the stick once again in the currency wars. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) moved to shrink reserve requirements for banks by a full 100 bps. It was the biggest cut to the RRR since the financial crisis in 2008. One analyst suggested it was the equivalent of a trillion yuan liquidity injection.

The monetary policy tide continues to flow very distinctly toward easier policy, and yet people continue to talk about a Fed tightening. The modest 0.2% uptick in March CPI that was reported on Friday was the latest rallying point for the hawks. However, inflation remains well below target, especially as measured by the Fed's preferred PCE price index.

Everyone is once again eagerly anticipating the next FOMC meeting for possibly clarification of the timing question. That 2-day meeting begins 28-Apr, but the Fed has been anything but clear lately.

Greek bond yields continue to rise as the financial situation further deteriorates. Greece is expected to run out of money around the end of the month, unless some new deal is worked out with creditors. Nobody seems to have much optimism about a deal, so Greek measures should become increasingly drastic over the next couple weeks.

Today, the Greek government issued a decree that forces local governments to transfer all cash balances to the central bank, according to a Bloomberg article.
The decree effectively confiscates those cash reserves, currently held in commercial banks, and transfers them to the Bank of Greece. — Bloomberg
This will likely prompt accelerated outflows from the Greek banking system. One might imagine that ever-more onerous capital controls will have to follow.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

 

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