A path to war?

WEEKEND READING

Linked-in/Ray Dalio/Bridgewater Securities/9-19-2018

The following is taken from the 1930s US Great Depression chapter of A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises (which is available for free download HERE). I’m passing it along because I think that the 1935-40 period is most analogous to the current period and that it is worth reflecting on what happened then when thinking about US-Chinese relations now. To be clear, I’m not saying that we are on a path to a shooting war, but I am saying that we have to watch what path we are on, given these cause-effect relationships that history has taught us and that are described in the template. This excerpt describes how the economic and political conditions of the late 1930s evolved into the wars that followed. 

USAGOLD note:  Dalio brings attention to a chronology that recounts eerily striking similarities between now and the 1935-1940 period.  I will throw into the mix Neil Howe’s (co-author The Fourth Turning) observations that the last fourth turning came during the 1930s and ended with World War II. The current fourth turning, he says, began with the 2008 financial crisis – an event he predicted in 1997.  Overnight China cancelled upcoming trade talks with the United States.


Related please see: Bridging the ‘fourth turning’ with gold (8-20-2018)

Image by Grameen America (https://vimeo.com/247028348) [CC BY 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

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Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

“In June, 2009, I decided to make gold ownership an essential part of my investment portfolio. Based on the recommendation of financial professionals, and because I liked that they had been in business for so long, I contacted USAGOLD. After a thorough review of my financial goals and budget constraints, they provided me with a comprehensive set of suggestions as to which gold coins, and what quantities, I should consider. That advice perfectly addressed my investment needs and I have been a customer ever since. Over my years with USAGOLD, I have completed several transactions, both buying and selling gold. Each one was handled with the highest integrity, and the advice I received was always reliable, based on their extensive awareness of current and projected market conditions for gold. I recommend them without reservation. Do not make a decision regarding gold ownership without contacting them.” – Jack D., 1-31-2017

Scorecard: 38 43 48 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
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[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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DMR–Gold hammered lower on combination of Fed Week and upcoming options expiration

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Today’s sell-off in gold – down as much as $14 at $1193 in early trading – came on the COMEX  open and coincided with a major sell-off of foreign currencies across the board led by the British pound.  Given the broad circumstances, our best guess is that the downside is a reaction to next week’s Fed meeting.  It is a given that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by a quarter point.  The gold and FOREX markets though are probably registering concern about an announcement, or allusion, to further increases running into 2019.  We also have October gold and silver options expiration Tuesday next week.  Gold has a history of selling off during Fed Week.  It also has a history of selling off at options expiration.  Perhaps the combination of the two – even though October is a light month for futures volume – served as inspiration to the shorts, or perhaps even one aggressive short, to unceremoniously hammer gold lower.  As we post today’s report, we see the metal has retraced some of its earlier losses – down now about $10 on the day.

We will update later if more information surfaces.

Quote of the Day
“Those who held funds in dollars, pounds or other stable currencies, or in gold, saved their capital. The government set up rigid exchange controls as the inflation proceeded. As usual under such conditions, a black market flourished. The ones who fared best were the small minority who had the foresight to exchange marks into foreign money or gold very early, before new laws made this difficult and before the mark lost too much value.” – Scientific Market Analysis, The Nightmare German Inflation

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

Chart note: This chart illustrates how quickly things can swing from placid to nearly out of control. As you see, for six years between 2008 and 2014, the Argentina peso held relatively steady against the U.S. dollar (right scale). Then the wheels came off.  Argentina is now seen as something of a poster child for emerging countries debt and currency problems. Those who own gold in Argentina understand the value of laying in the proper hedge ahead of a currency crisis and few would argue with the wisdom offered in our Quote of the Day. Few believe that Argentina’s problems will vanish as quickly as they appeared.

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Morgan Stanley turns bullish on gold

SafeHaven/Tom Kool/9-19-2018

“‘We rarely use gold in our asset allocation, but occasionally there are opportunities and currently we see one of them.’ Morgan Stanley sees gold recovering by the end of the year. Right now, gold is at just over $1,201, but the bank sees it hitting $1,300 an ounce thanks to a confluence of factors: rising market volatility, weakening U.S. dollar and an inverting yield curve. In other words, an economic slowdown.”

USAGOLD note:  Though the buy signal is offered with an apology, Morgan Stanley apparently sees something nasty coming down the road otherwise it wouldn’t go out of the way to recommend gold.  In a separate advisory issued about a week ago, the firm recommended that “U.S. stock investors brace for a market that will be paralyzed for several years in a narrow trading range.”

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Vale says it could expand Brazil iron-ore mine as Chinese demand grows

Mining Weekly/Reuters/9-20-2018

“Mining giant Vale is looking at expanding its flagship iron ore project in Brazil amid growing Chinese appetite for higher-grade varieties of the commodity, a company official said on Thursday. China, the world’s top consumer of the steel-making ingredient, has ramped up buying of higher-quality, less polluting grades as it battles to clear its notoriously smoggy skies.”

USAGOLD note:  More anecdotal evidence running contrary to the notion that Chinese demand for base and precious metals will collapse the result of the trade war. (Please see post immediately below.)

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India, Chinese demand lift August Swiss gold exports to 14-month high

Scrap Register/9-20-2018

“Analysts cite data from the Swiss Federal Customs Administration data showing that August gold shipments rose 30% month-on-month to a 14-month high of 150.5 tons. Significantly more gold was shipped to China and India in particular, which points to reviving demand in these two leading gold-consumer countries, Commerzbank added.”

USAGOLD note:  The under-emphasized story in the on-going coverage of the dual emerging markets’ crisis and the trade wars is the associated rising demand for physical gold in the countries affected – particularly China and India. Thirty per cent is a significant jump. Physical silver demand is also strong in the two countries.

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There’s a global currency crisis unfolding that’s sure to catch up to the US

CNBC/Richard X. Bove/9-20-2018

“There have been out-sized declines in countries like Venezuela (down 99 percent), Argentina (53 percent) and Turkey (38 percent). However, Brazil is down 20 percent, Russia 15 percent, India 11 percent, Sweden 10 percent, and the Philippines 8 percent.”

USAGOLD note:  The Fed’s aware of this, right?

Image by Kevin Lam from Vancouver, Canada (200708181636322) [Edited]

 

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Silver looks poised to move soon

321Gold/Hubert Moolman/9-20-2018

“A key difference between silver and gold prices is the fact that silver already bottomed in 1993, whereas gold bottomed only in 1999. This means that from 1993 to 1999 silver was actually in an uptrend, while gold was still caught in a downtrend. This little known fact might not have been so important to date; however, it might become more important as this bull market progresses.”

USAGOLD note: An unusual analysis. . .

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Central banks buy most gold since 2015

World Gold Council/9-20-2018

“Central banks added a net total of 193.3 tonnes of gold to their reserves in the first six months of 2018, an 8% increase from the 178.6 bought in the same period last year.  This marks the strongest first half for central bank gold since 2015.”

USAGOLD note:  Since the beginning of 2017, the biggest buyers were Russia – 383.3 tonnes; Turkey –125.8 tonnes and Kazakhstan – 68.4 tonnes.  A surprise on the list, and reported here earlier this month, is India – 15.3 tonnes.  The Peoples Bank of China, who many analysts believe to be the largest buyer, does not report publicly on its purchases. Some sources report though that its purchases could be as high as 500 tonnes per year.

Related: Please see this in-depth analysis – PBoC Gold Purchases: Secretive Accumulation on the International Market/Bullion Star

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DMR–Gold subdued but inching forward on early signs of sentiment shift

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold is up marginally in early trading this morning in a somewhat subdued reaction  to a show of strength among the major currencies. The yuan, euro, franc, yen and pound are all notably higher.  Gold is up a modest $3 at $1207. Silver is steady at $14.26.  Gold’s inching higher is noteworthy nevertheless.

Sentiment seems to be shifting a bit against the dollar and in gold’s favor. China’s public proclamation yesterday in support of the yuan is the chief driving factor. Other early signs have begun to emerge. The bond market decline stands out, as does yesterday’s industrial metals’ rally based, Financial Times tells us, on “robust demand.”  (Where did that come from?) In an unusual turn of events, a Bloomberg article this morning offers the possibility that the Fed’s widely expected rate hike next week will present, of all things, a sell signal for the dollar.

“Going into year-end,” says Invesco’s Noelle Corum, “we would expect fundamentals will begin to drive markets again, and this will drive the dollar weaker.’’ Similarly, BNP Paribas’ Momtchil Pojarliev says that “We have a turning point where the dollar is going to weaken” and that the dollar is at the “maximum positive point.”

The way things are shaping up, we could have further news as the day progresses.  If so, we will update.

Quote of the Day
“So why gold? People buy gold to protect their savings not because it is rare, yellow or shiny, but because of what it isn’t. Gold isn’t debt, equity or any other financial promise. It doesn’t rely on anyone else’s survival to exist. It can’t be destroyed any more than it can be created at will. Call it the ‘gut level case for gold’ – an urgent, all-consuming need to buy a dumb lump of metal which does so little, it doesn’t even rust, but which people in all ages and all cultures have used to store value.” – Adrian Ash, Bullion Vault

Chart of the Day

Chart note: The collective wisdom on gold has changed over the years.  Gold has traveled a long and winding road from abandoned orphan and shunned castaway (the 1990s), to grudgingly respected over-achiever (the 2000s), and finally established portfolio stalwart for millions of global investors (the 2010s). That renaissance is illustrated tellingly by the substantial change in volumes at the COMEX since 2000. The ramped-up volumes are the product of burgeoning demand for gold globally among private investors, institutions and funds. It is the latter two – institutions and funds – that are most responsible for volumes rising to the record levels of the last few years.

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The massive pension crisis could add to gold’s allure

ETF Daily News/Frank Holmes/9-19-2018

“Among the biggest threats to the U.S. economy, we believe, is the latent public pension crisis, which could be much worse than most people realize. The Wall Street Journal reported in July that pension plans nationwide are short some $4 trillion, ‘an amount that is roughly equal to the output of the world’s fourth-largest economy,’ Germany. Put another way, states and cities across the U.S. now face a funding gap of approximately $4 trillion, a sum that could continue to expand as more workers live longer and draw retirement benefits.”

USAGOLD note: Holmes goes on to suggest gold as hedge against the latent pension crisis saying, “Historically, a defensive investment strategy has included a rotation into gold, bonds and other assets that are uncorrelated to the stock market.” Gold is an asset which is not simultaneously another’s liability. Pension funds by comparison are loaded with assets that are simultaneously someone else’s liability and carry precious little gold to offset the risks that represents.

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Gold: Are we nearly there yet Dad?

Important development in gold and silver lease rates

Sharps Pixley/Ross Norman/9-19-2018

“Well another pin is falling … precious metals lease rates are tightening. Just as buying and selling affects prices, so borrowing and lending affect lease rates. If a market is undersupplied then it follows lease rates will rise, which can have a knock-on effect on prices upwards.”

USAGOLD note:  With thanks to Ross Norman for spotting this important trend and laying out what it might mean for the gold market.  A rising lease rate usually indicates that the bullion banks need gold and silver in physical form to meet the demands of depositors.  Eventually, it does make its way into the pricing, and most notably, as Norman suggests, the prospect of rising lease rates will “concentrate the minds” of traders short the paper gold market.

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Metals rally after latest trade war salvo

Financial Times/Neil Hume/9-19-2018

“The price of industrial metals, including copper and zinc, rallied on Wednesday as investors brushed aside concerns about the US-China trade war and focused on signs of robust demand.”

USAGOLD note:  This article raises the prospect that there might be life beyond the U.S.-China trade war.  Could it be that the popularly accepted narrative on raw materials demand and the trade war has a few holes in it?

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Central planning failed in the USSR, but central banks have revived it

Mises Institute/Vitaliy Katsenelson/9-19-2018

“If all Russian housewives (and house-husbands) had decided to go on an apple-pie diet and started baking pies for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, sugar demand would have increased but the prices still would have been 96 and 104 kopecks. As a result, we would have had a shortage of sugar — a common occurrence in the Soviet era.”

USAGOLD note:  Highly recommended.  A good read from someone who experienced first-hand the ill-effects of a centrally planned economy.

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Introducing Our New Online Order Desk Department

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‘Collectible Coins’

We are pleased to announce the expanded availability of USAGOLD’s market leading offers of type sets, date runs, complete date sets, regional sets, and mint-mark sets of both U.S. and World gold coinage to our Online Order Desk, in a brand new section titled ‘Collectible Coins‘. These items can now be purchase anytime, day or night, via our secure, password-protected, live-pricing environment.

Contrary to the moniker ‘Collectible Coins’, many of our sets sell within a reasonable range of the spot gold value of the coins, and are typically offered at a discount to the cost of the coins individually. That said, items offered at this page are generally extremely limited in their availability, and represent unique, hard-to-find accumulation opportunities for heirloom-minded investors.

We invite you to peruse our current offerings. And, to commemorate the opening of this new section of our Online Order Desk, we’re offering some great, albeit short-lived discounts. All discounts expire Friday (9/21) at midnight! And check back often! New sets will be added all the time.

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The ‘Great Bull’ market is ‘dead,’ and here’s what’s next, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts

CNBC/Jeff Cox/9-19-2018

“In that climate, he advised investors to focus on ‘inequality, innovation and immortality, that would benefit pharma companies and technology disruptors, along with inflation plays in commodities, value stocks and markets outside the U.S. and Canada. . .Yet the Fed is now saying ‘this time is different’ and a flat/inverted curve won’t stop them hiking,’ he said. ‘A much more hawkish-than-expected Fed is the most likely catalyst for fresh losses across asset markets.'”

[Emphasis added.]

 

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DMR–Gold seesawing around $1200, but higher this morning on firming yuan, China premier comments

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold continued to seesaw around the $1200 mark this morning.  At report post-time, it is trading in the $1203 range and up $3 on the day.  Silver is up 4¢ at $14.23.  Overnight, gold got as high $1206 after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was quoted on Bloomberg as saying China would refrain from devaluing the yuan to boost exports.  The yuan is also higher in early trading.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury went vertical yesterday to 3.048% on a TIC report showing a minor reduction in Chinese holdings of U.S. sovereign debt. In keeping with Li Kequiang statements this morning, China might be forced to sell U.S. government paper in order to defend the yuan.  Yield on the 10-year is even higher this morning at 3.074%, an indication that the market has not backed-off from yesterday’s assessment. Julius Baer’s Norbert Ruecker told Reuters this morning that “Overall, we are constructive for gold and we are telling our clients to start to build a long-term position. Negative sentiment and positioning looks like it has hit rock bottom, so this will start normalizing and support gold.”

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

Quote of the Day
“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  The CBOE SKEW Index signals when option traders are concerned about a black swan event.  In August, the SKEW hit its highest level since inception in 1999.  Since then it has backed-off marginally, but the trend in sentiment and the danger signal remain intact. 

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The risk of derivatives isn’t gone. It’s merely morphed.

Bloomberg/Opinion/Sajiyat Das/9-18-2018

“In the 10 years since Lehman’s failure, policymakers eagerly have pointed to initiatives that, they believe, made the financial system safer and a repeat of 2008 unlikely. That view is Panglossian.”

USAGOLD note:  With attention focused on the trade wars, shrinking credit spreads, and the potential for a new emerging country debt crisis, the elephant in the room – the highly-leveraged, multi-trillion dollar derivative market – has been pushed discreetly into the closet.  A Norwegian traders $132.6 million loss trading energy futures last week, though small potatoes in the world of derivatives, issued a warning how suddenly things can go wrong.  This Bloomberg opinion piece tells why current safeguards are likely to fall short in the event of a larger and more widespread meltdown.

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Gold: A new trade war weapon?

321Gold/Stewart Thompson/9-18-2018

“The bottom line is that if the trade skirmish becomes a war and damages the US economy, Trump is going to become more likely to use some form of dollar devaluation as a weapon. . .Clearly, many top bank FOREX analysts believe the trade skirmish will soon become a war involving currency devaluation. I put the odds that it happens at 50% now and trending higher!”

USAGOLD note: The public remains complacent while the pros become more nervous by day.

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China’s US Treasury holdings just fell to six-month low amid escalating trade war

CNBC/Patti Domm/9-18-2018

“Bond pros have been watching the data for clues as to whether China would dump Treasury securities to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, but the July data does not indicate a major move, several strategists said.”

USAGOLD note:  Japan not China has been the leader in reducing bond holdings over the past two years.  China has actually added marginally to its holdings over the period. . . .See below. That said, we still do not know how China is likely to react to the current trade war pressures.  The greatest danger to the bond market could very well become Chinese and Japanese bond liquidations to prop up their currencies and discourage capital flight – an economic necessity rather than a wilful retaliation.

Click to enlarge.

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10-year Treasury yield extends climb above 3%

Financial Times/Staff/9-18-2018

“The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield extended its move above a key 3 per cent threshold on Tuesday, as investors took new trade tariffs into their stride and instead responded to expectations of further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.”

USAGOLD note:  The latest TIC report posted above shows a minor reduction in China’s bond holdings. Some in the media say that news may have triggered today’s Treasuries’ sell-off.

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We also treat millionaires . . . well. . . like millionaires – whether they admit to it or not [smile].

We receive unsolicited testimonials like L.W.’s routinely. Please see our Client Testimonials page for more feedback, and be sure to visit  the Better Business Bureau for even more in the way of FIVE-STAR reviews.  Don’t do business with any gold company until you have checked it out.

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The USAGOLD Website – A guiding light for current and would-be clientele since 1997

Welcome newcomers!  We invite you to kick back, stay awhile, do some interest-driven browsing

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.  If you would like to witness that piece of technology in action, you can see it here at the WaybackMachine.  (Don’t laugh.)

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1996), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 22-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning (When you visit the WayBackMachine, take special note of the number of visitors registered on our counter!) we have grown to over 600,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is good place to start.  For a full site outline including links and page descriptions. . . . . .

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The Fed isn’t heeding the bond market’s message

Bloomberg/Opinion/Komal Sri-Kumar/9-18-2018

“Bad central bank policies were a factor in the collapse in global markets a decade ago. A coordinated tightening of monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe could have similar implications for equity and bond investors today.”

USAGOLD note:  Ill-timed Fed tightening ignited the crash of 1929 and the crash of 2008, along with a few other panics in between.

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DMR–Gold unmoved by trade war escalation

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold had a muted reaction to today’s trade war escalation with the price going sideways. The U.S./China trade war thus far has had a negative effect on commodities across the board including gold, so holding its own and not retreating further comes as something of a surprise. Alibaba’s Jack Ma came out over the weekend predicting a protracted struggle that could last twenty years.  Thus far, the reaction in the West to the trade conflict has been subdued.  That sentiment, however, could change as the trade war moves from peripheral concern to immediate reality.  In China, the trade wars have done little to put a damper on gold imports.  It is on track this year to import another 2000+ metric tonnes of the metal – two-thirds of the annual global mine production.

Quote of the Day
“Two confrontational, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders playing chicken with each other, while the world is watching to see which one will be caught bluffing, or if there will be a hellacious war. We can also say that if … things go badly, it would seem that gold (more than other safe haven assets like the dollar, yen, and treasuries) would benefit.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Securities

Chart of the Day


Chart courtesy of HowMuch.net

Chart note:  “One thing is immediately clear, ” says HowMuch. “Imports and exports are both on an upward trajectory year over year, but imports tend to grow faster. In other words, when looking at the graph you will notice the gap between the two numbers has gotten larger and larger while the space between the two circles has also become darker and darker. In short, the trade deficit used to be relatively small, averaging less than $150B year over year in the 1990s, but then it exploded in the 2000s. The single biggest increase occurred in 2004 when it jumped from $532B to $655B—a whopping $122B in one year.”

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Trade war could become currency war depending on how China fights back

“[Exante Data’s Jens] Nordvig said there’s a 50-50 chance China could let its currency fall again. ‘Everybody is too relaxed that they’ve repegged the currency again. It’s never going to move,’ said Nordvig, warning if there could be a snap higher in the dollar. ‘Why would they help out Trump on the currency front. It doesn’t make any sense to me,’ he said.”

USAGOLD note:  Opinions vary about what China might do on the currency front, as this article points out.  As is the case with all the emerging countries, China will be concerned about capital flight.  The weaker the yuan the stronger the possibility of investors selling Chinese assets and buying assets in other countries including the U.S. and Europe – the situation to which Nordvig alludes.

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Mitsubishi: What are the two possible supportive factors for gold?

Scrap Register/9-18-2018

“Investors may be overlooking some factors that potentially could underpin gold prices, said Mitsubishi. Gold has been held back by a strong dollar and expectations for more U.S. rate hikes, as well as a strong stock market that has reduced buying of gold as a hedge. However, two factors that could end up underpinning gold are political risks and rising inflation.”

 

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Alibaba’s Jack Ma warns U.S.-China trade war could last 20 years

Bloomberg/Lulu Yilun Chen/9-18-2018

“‘Short term, business communities in China, U.S., Europe will all be in trouble,’ said Ma, pacing a stage in an open white dress shirt and punctuating his remarks with forceful jabs. ‘This thing will last long, if you want short term solution, there is no solution.'”

 

Image by Foundations World Economic Forum [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons [Edited]

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‘Rolling bear market’ will paralyze stocks for years: Morgan Stanley

Investopedia/Shoshanna Delventhal/9-14-2018

“U.S. stock investors should brace for a market that will be paralyzed for several years in a narrow trading range, according to one team of analysts on the Street, and as reported by CNBC.”

USAGOLD note:  Morgan Stanley sees stocks down as much as 17% in a bear market, it says, ‘is now upon us.’

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