Mass psychology supports the pricey stock market

Robert Schiller/New York Times/9-15-2017

“The C.A.P.E. ratio is above 30 today, compared with an average of 16.8 since 1881. It has been above 30 in only two other periods: in 1929, when it reached 33, and between 1997 and 2002, when it soared as high as 44.”

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Gold finishes the day up $6, but down $23 on the week

LATE REPORT

Gold finished up today to end a difficult week. On the day gold was up $6 at $1297.15; silver was up 5¢ at $16.97. On the week, gold finished down 1.7% (- $22.93); silver was down 3.4% (- 59¢).  It is the second week in a row gold and silver finished on the downside. The precious metals are being pushed in one direction by the increasingly dangerous threats from North Korea, and the other by concerns about Fed policy.

In the meantime, disinflation reigns and with it the ever-present financial system risks globally – a prospect elevating physical demand. As reported earlier today, gold ETFs inventories have risen this week as prices have fallen – an indication of professional money buying the dip.

Asia is closed.  Stay tuned.  We might put up a post or two over the weekend if anything interesting surfaces.  Have a pleasant weekend.

We invite  you to scroll – a useful review of the week’s events from a golden perspective awaits . . . .


In the upcoming issue of our monthly newsletter, we tell a forgotten story about the currency markets. Hint:  Gold is the hero of this tale and it provides clues as to where we might be headed in the future. We also offer a tribute to the 300th anniversary of Sir Isaac Newton’s inadvertent discovery of the gold standard. Mercifully, we are going to try avoid commentary on the Federal Reserve.

We invite you to sign-up for our free monthly newsletter with appreciation to our current and prospective clientele.


 

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OPINION: Hamilton on quantitative tightening’s impact on stocks, gold

GoldSeek/Adam Hamilton/9-22-2017

“Don’t let the complacent stock-market reaction this week fool you, quantitative tightening is a huge deal. It’s the biggest market game-changer by far since QE’s dawn! Starting to reverse QE via QT radically alters market dynamics going forward. Like a freight train just starting to move, it doesn’t look scary to traders yet. But once that QT train gets barreling at full speed, it’s going to be a havoc-wreaking juggernaut.”

USAGOLD Note:  Adam Hamilton, an old friend from our early days on the internet, often finds himself ahead of the crowd.  One sentence in his latest caught our eye:  “Just hearing a hurricane is coming is radically different than actually living through one.”  I would add a thought to the quote just above in conjunction with the hurricane analogy:  Markets have been known to anticipate just like some people will anticipate and prepare for a hurricane.  It might not take the juggernaut moving at full speed to move pricing in stocks, bonds, gold and silver. In this scenario, professional investors and hedge funds will  likely lead the way, and that is where most of the pricing power resides. . . . .

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Morning Snapshot: Gold, silver sideways this morning

The precious metals are moving sideways this morning – nothing new to report.  We refer you to last night’s LATE REPORT for our latest update on the current market.

More later if anything interesting develops. . . .Have a good day.

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Will silver outperform gold in the months ahead?

Lawrie Williams/SharpsPixley/9-15-2017

“Our long expressed view is that the GSR [gold-silver ratio) will revert back to the 65 level or below – how soon this will happen we are not sure.  However at $1,400 gold, which we see as a possibility even this year, a GSR of 65 would mean a silver price of around $21.50 – a rise of over 20% from where it is now.  That doesn’t look to be an unreasonable target, although it may take longer than four months to get there.”

USAGOLD note:  We note an interesting phenomena of late.  The old guard is back in the market at these prices and one of their interests is to balance their gold holdings with silver.  In the past most of these investors were purely gold buyers and had never owned silver before.  Now, they want to own silver for the upside potential, but they also see it as a safe-haven.  This group tends to stick with the American Eagle one-once silver bullion coin pictured above.

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James Rickard on the Fed’s asset reduction program

Daily Reckoning/James Rickards/9-21-2017

“The Fed wants you to think that QT (Quantitative Tightening) will not have any impact. Fed leadership speaks in code and has a word for this which you’ll hear called ‘background.’ The Fed wants this to run on background. Think of running on background like someone using a computer to access email while downloading something on background.

This is complete nonsense. They’ve spent eight years saying that quantitative easing was stimulative. Now they want the public to believe that a change to quantitative tightening is not going to slow the economy.

They continue to push that conditions are sustainable when printing money, but when they make money disappear, it will not have any impact. This approach falls down on its face — and it will have a big impact.”

USAGOLD note:  As we mentioned in a previous report, we are in an economy deeply mired in disinflation with deflation knocking quietly on the door. The markets are wary.  Investors are still buying gold.  The SPDR gold ETF  total gold weight was up 199,539 ounces yesterday to 27,400,195 ounces, or .7%.  Over the past four weeks it is up 5.84%.

During the whole period, the investment business had a pretty good idea what the Fed would announce.  Keep in mind that the gold ETFs are dominated by professional investors.  They know disinflation is ingrained in this economy and they are buying for defensive, safe-haven purposes, i.e., as a disinflation hedge. The following chart covers holdings in all the ETFs Aug 22 thru yesterday – an interesting buy-the-dip divergence.


Chart courtesy of GoldChartsRUs
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Gold staging recovery in Asia trading

LATE REPORT

Gold is staging something of minor recovery in the overnight Asia market – up $4.00 at $1296.00 from earlier closing levels and about $6 from the $1288 low posted in intraday trading.  Silver is tagging along for the ride – up about 6¢ at $17.04 from closing levels and 20¢ from intra-day lows at $6.84.  Reports have surfaced tonight that North Korea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs threatened test detonation of a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean.

More later if warranted. To catch up on today’s action, please scroll further down the page. . . . .

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Morning Snapshot: Gold stays on downside track

Gold remains on a downside track this morning.  It broke the $1300 barrier in Asian overnight trading, continued down in Europe before leveling out, at least temporarily, in early U.S. trading.  From noon MT yesterday when the Fed published its announcement, gold is down $22 at $1292.00. Silver over the same time frame is down 40¢ at $16.98.  On the day thus far gold is down about $7 and silver 14¢ from yesterday’s closing levels.

The reaction to the Fed’s interest rate and asset reduction program has been tepid across the markets with only short-term U.S. Treasuries a beneficiary.

 

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USAGOLD’s September Gold Buyers’ Special

SPECIAL OFFER PAGE/Historic British sovereigns

“It is estimated that only 1% of all gold sovereigns that have ever been minted are still in collectible condition. It is this relative rarity in relation to bullion coins and bars that leads to leverage whereby, in gold bull markets, the value of these coins increases by more that the actual price of gold.” – Money Week, “Why you should buy gold sovereigns”


We have placed hundreds of thousands of historic British sovereigns with our clientele, but never at a premium this low. . .9% over the melt value.  Modern American Eagles in the one-quarter ounce size fetch a higher premium . . .10.5%.  We only have a thousand  at that price and, as always it’s first-come, first-served. We are also offering at attractive pricing 500 King George V sovereigns in brilliant uncirculated state of preservation – the “collectible condition” referenced in the Money Week quote above.

Those of you who have participated in these specials in the past know how quickly we can sell out, especially when it is a price-based offer.

USAGOLD Order Desk
1-800-869-5115
Extension #100
or
orderdesk@usagold.com


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S&P cuts China’s credit rating, says rising debt is stoking economic, financial risks

Reuters /Jason Lee/0-21-2017

“S&P Global Ratings downgraded China’s long-term sovereign credit rating on Thursday, less than a month ahead of one of the country’s most sensitive political gatherings, citing increasing risks from its rapid build-up of debt. S&P’s one-notch downgrade to A+ from AA- comes as Beijing grapples with the challenges of containing financial risks stemming from years of credit-fueled stimulus needed to meet ambitious government economic growth targets.”

USAGOLD note:  Gold demand within China hardly needs a boost but this news will provide it nevertheless.  This announcement came after Asian markets closed.

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Fed, Bank of Japan policy divergence

Bloomberg/Lorcan Roche Kelly/9-21-2017

“Overnight, the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged, with a surprise dovish dissent in the 8-1 vote as newly-appointed Goushi Kataoka said that policy needed to be more accommodative to reach the bank’s inflation target by 2019. The divergence between the Fed and the BOJ pushed the yen lower, with the currency trading at 112.40 per dollar. . .”

USAGOLD note:  The yen started the year at 115 and it’s now trading at 112.4, so it is actually up against the dollar on the year. When you zoom out from the day to day noise, the reality comes into focus.

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FE Alpha Manager Cheveley: Why the macro supports buying gold now

FE TRUSTNET/Rob Langston/9-19-2017

“According to Investec, the precious metal tends to perform well once an interest rate hiking cycle starts. While this has begun the path for further rises remains uncertain. As a store of value, the yellow metal can also act as an inflation hedge in high or low inflationary environments. . .FE Alpha Manager Cheveley said the precious metal ‘works well in a real low rate environment’, where both inflation and interest rates are low.”

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AAA-rated manager buys gold for first time in seven years

“Citywire AAA-rated David Coombs has added gold to his multi-asset funds for the first time in seven years. . .

‘We are buying it because the UK is very vulnerable to recession. We bought this before the gilts sold off and we are loathed to buy long-duration gilts or index-linked bonds to help us mitigate economic risk. We feel that gold is a good diversifier for us.'”

USAGOLD note:  Note that Coombs is buying gold as a recession hedge.

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Yellen brushes aside inflation “mystery”

Bloomberg/Rich Miller/9-2-2017

“Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged that the fall in inflation this year was a bit of a ‘mystery’ but suggested that the central bank was on course to raise interest rates again in 2017 nonetheless.”

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Gold drops below $1300 in initial reaction to Fed plan

LATE REPORT

Gold fell below the $1300 level in its initial reaction to the Fed’s balance sheet reduction program.  Silver followed suit.  Gold was down $9 today at $1301.  Silver was down 14¢ at $17.15.  In early Asian trading gold and silver are both level.

There is a sense of finality in the Fed’s actions today – the end of the easy money era. It comes at time when disinflation is deeply entrenched in the U.S. economy and deflation is quietly knocking on the door. Looking at the range of markets, we would classify today’s overall reaction as tepid at best.

We will be keeping a close eye on things here at our Live Daily Newsletter and we invite you to join us.

For more on today’s events, please scroll below.

Quote of the Day
“It’s just finally sinking in. The Fed has a credibility issue, even if you think they were going to follow through on their guidance, part of you didn’t believe it. Now, more and more people are starting to piece it together. What will be the impact on yield as money is destroyed and eliminated from the financial system?” – Bryce Doty, senior fixed income manager with Sit Investment Associates.


We invite you to sign-up for our free monthly newsletter available with appreciation to our current and prospective clientele. Immediate access.

News & Views
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals
Next issue first week of October

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Today’s Fed Statement

9/20/2017

For the record. . . .

_____________

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.


USAGOLD note:  In summation searching various sources, one more quarter point hike this year. Three next year possibly.  A gradual unwinding of the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet at $10 billion per month beginning next month and then gradually moving up quarterly $10 billion until it reaches $50 billion per month.  At that rate, it will be the mid-2020s before the balance sheet is “normalized” assuming of course life, politics and a bad economy do not intervene.

Could this be a message in a bottle delivered to Wall Street – a surreptitious exit of the party with the punch bowl when few are looking?

Upcoming problems break into two columns –  the psychological effects on the financial markets as this gets sorted out, and the knock-on effects no one foresees. No “been there, done that” to which we can all refer in this situation. . . . . .

It [the Fed’s balance sheet liquidation program] could be more disruptive than people think. . .That is a very different world you have to operate in, that’s a big change in the tide. All the main buyers of sovereign debt over the last 10 years – financial institutions, central banks, foreign exchange managers – will become net sellers now.” – Jamie Dimon, J.P. Morgan

“The faster growth never arrived despite Fed predictions for years that 3% annual GDP growth was right around the corner – in what has been the slowest expansion on record. But prices have risen in stocks, real estate, emerging market plays and other assets.  If the Fed calls that success on Mr. Bernanke’s terms, then shouldn’t the reverse happen as the Fed unwinds?” – Wall Street Journal editorial 9/19/2017

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Sovereign wealth funds and the case for gold


WGC/Jennifer Johnson-Calari & Adam Kobor/09-20-17

As part of the World Bank’s Reserves Advisory Management Program, Jennifer Johnson-Calari and Adam Kobor helped both central banks and sovereign wealth funds to build their investment management operations. Today, Johnson-Calari heads JJC Advisory and Adam Kobor is Director of Investments at the New York University. Both believe gold has an increasing role to play in central bank and sovereign wealth fund portfolios.

Gold is nobody’s liability, its value deriving for millennia from its beauty and scarcity. As such, gold was the ultimate reserve currency held to settle transactions and back liabilities – first under the Gold and then the Dollar Standard.

…Over the last decade…gold has risen to new prominence for sovereign investors as a portfolio asset…

PG View: You should be holding some physical gold in your portfolio for all the same reasons central banks and sovereign wealth funds do…

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What Will Fed Decision Do To Gold Prices?

KitcoNews/Todd ‘Bubba’ Horwitz/09-20-17

Today is the big day which apparently everyone is waiting for. How will the Fed unwind the balance sheet? The facts are simple. They don’t have to unwind; they can take the bonds to maturity. The only reason for the Fed to unwind would be to create a backdoor rate hike by liquidating bonds in the open market. Lower bond futures create higher interest rates.

…Markets have a way of pricing in news long before the actual news comes out, and we will assume this is the case for the metals. The pattern suggests there is more upside and the selling is over for now.

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U.S. existing home sales -1.7% to 5.35M pace in Aug, below exceptions of 5.47M, vs 5.44M in Jul.

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Morning Snapshot: Gold moving sideways early

Gold continued to move quietly higher this morning with most of the markets waiting around to hear from the Fed.  Gold is trading in $1312 range up slightly from yesterday. Silver is trading flat at $17.32.  Gold reversed course late yesterday after President Trump’s latest salvo leveled at North Korea, coming off a low in the $1306 range yesterday.

The Fed will announce its policy decisions today noon MT and Chairwoman Janet Yellen will hold a news conference at 12:30 MT.  We may have more for you then . . .

No surprise to readers who follow the USAGOLD blog, but confirmation neverthesess:

“Speculative positioning in gold,” reports Economic Times, “has been on the rise since mid-August wherein hedge funds and money managers were net longs at 138,566 contracts, which has now increased to 249,588 net longs as on September 5, clearly defining the road map for rising price of the yellow metal.

As far as investment demand goes, inflows in the SPDR gold trust have grown by 22 tonnes since August and the current holdings as on September 14 stood at around 838.64 tonnes, reflecting the incremental demand arising out of geopolitical worries.”

USAGOLD note:  We are not sure we would go along with the “demand arising out of geopolitical worries” as the chief reason professional investors are gold – a rather simplistic view.  There is considerably more going on with respect to gold than the roller coaster ride imposed by the North Korean situation.  Geopolitical concerns are one of many in the list of gold investor concerns – an important one but still on a longer list of factors.

 

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Dollar close to 2015 lows as conflicted Fed prepares policy update

Reuters/Abhinav Ramnarayan & Ritvik Carvalho/09-20-17

…[C]aught between a lull in U.S. inflation and a strengthening global economy, the market is uncertain whether the Fed will signal its third interest rate hike of the year or back off until prices rise more briskly.

“Fed members have become less hawkish of late, and that has started to weigh on the dollar,” said OANDA analyst Craig Erlam.

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Posted in Central Banks, Fed, Monetary Policy, U.S. Dollar |

Gold’s fear trade intensifies on debt and equity risk


WGC/Frank Holmes/09-20-17

Global debt levels have reached unprecedented levels, pension deficits are rising and the US interest rate cycle is on the turn. Frank Holmes, chief executive of highly regarded investment management group US Global Investors, believes that investing in gold is a logical response to current, unnerving conditions.

“For centuries, investors and savers have depended on gold in times of economic and political strife, and its investment case right now is as compelling as it’s ever been.”
“Total global debt levels reached an astronomical US$217 trillion in the first quarter – that’s 327% of world GDP.”
“Gold’s investment case becomes even more compelling when we consider the US Federal Reserve’s next moves.”
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Traders Boost Odds of Third Rate Hike This Year as FOMC Meets


Bloomberg/Alex Harris/09-19-17

Will they or won’t they hike, that’s what traders are asking themselves before Wednesday’s policy decision from the Federal Open Market Committee. The odds of a hike by December have jumped to around 50 percent, based on fed funds futures, from 22 percent on Sept. 8. Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall said as long as the Federal Reserve doesn’t take a rate hike “off the table this week,” the market may continue to push up the implied odds of another increase by year-end.

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Morning Snapshot: Gold steady ahead of Fed

USAGOLD/Peter Grant/09-20-17

Gold begins the U.S. sessions slightly higher, as the consolidation ahead of this afternoon’s Fed policy announcement continues. Despite the past week of corrective/consolidative activity, the underlying trend remains positive.

The Fed is expected to hold steady on policy today, but announce some details about balance sheet normalization. The FOMC will also provide their economic projections and Janet Yellen will hold a press conference.

After President Trump’s fiery speech at the UN General Assembly, there is speculation that North Korea will respond with more missile tests. The longer and louder the sabers are rattled, the more likely it becomes that they are drawn.

The rest of the calendar is light today, with August existing home sales and EIA crude stocks.

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Posted in Gold News, Gold Price, Gold Views, Snapshot |

U.S. MBA mortgage market index -9.7% in the week ended 15-Sep; purchases -10.8%, refis -8.5%.

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Gold higher at 1314.54 (+3.42). Silver 17.35 (+0.038). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called easier. U.S. 10-year 2.23% (-2 bps).

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Gold reverses course after Trump speech

LATE REPORT

Gold reversed its downtrend late today after President Trump threatened North Korea with total destruction in a pivotal speech before the United Nations.  The threats pushed aside concerns about this week’s Fed policy meeting, at least momentarily.

Gold finished the day  up $3.53 at the $1311 mark  after tracking as low $1306 during daytime trading.  Silver followed gold’s lead finishing up 11¢ on day at $17.29. The reversal extended into Asian trading with gold tacking another $2 on the price as this is posted.  Silver is trading sideways.

Quote of the Day
“It would therefore take a huge leap of faith to say that crises won’t continue to be a regular feature of the current financial system that has been in place since the early 1970s. The near exponential growth of finance and its liberalisation since this point has encouraged this trend.” – James Read, Deutsche Bank strategist


Wondering what Deutsche Bank’s James Read is talking about?  Try this USAGOLD link. . . .Black Swans – A chronology of panics, mania, crashes and collapses from 400 BC to present.  The prudent are prepared.

Also, we invite you to sign-up for our monthly newsletter available free with appreciation to our current and prospective clientele. Immediate access. Therein, comments and concerns like Mr. Read’s are covered regularly.


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Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, says ‘bitcoin is a bubble’


CNBC/Tae Kim/09-19-17

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said Tuesday he is not a believer in cryptocurrencies.

“Bitcoin today you can’t make much transactions in it. You can’t spend it very easily,” Dalio said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“It’s not an effective storehold of wealth because it has volatility to it, unlike gold,” the hedge fund founder added. “Bitcoin is a highly speculative market. Bitcoin is a bubble.”

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Fed economist: ‘No evidence that QE works’ as central bank starts unwinding program

CNBC/Jeff Cox/09-19-17

The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of reversing the most ambitious monetary stimulus program in world history amid questions over how much impact it really delivered.

There’s little question that the program, known as quantitative easing or “money printing,” boosted the stock market.

…”Evaluating the effects of monetary policy is difficult, even in the case of conventional interest rate policy,” St. Louis Fed economist Stephen D. Williamson wrote. “With respect to QE, there are good reasons to be skeptical that it works as advertised, and some economists have made a good case that QE is actually detrimental.”

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Posted in Central Banks, Fed, Monetary Policy, QE |

The Daily Market Report: Gold Consolidates as Fed Considers Balance Sheet Normalization


USAGOLD/Peter Grant/09-19-17

Gold is consolidating near its two-week low with the two-day FOMC meeting now underway. Expect trading to be relatively subdued until the Fed announces policy tomorrow at 2:00ET.

The yellow metal remains calm, despite a rather significant escalation of of the geopolitical rhetoric at the UN General Assembly this morning. “The United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea,” said President Trump. The DPRK will almost assuredly respond in some manner, further escalating an already extremely tense situation.

Jim Rickards was asked what brought gold down yesterday, he responded by tweeting, “Chatter about higher inflation, rate hikes, momentum, etc. None of it will come to pass, but it’s the flavor of the month.” Someone else asked how many rate hikes he saw for the rest of the year. “Zero” was the reply.

As the Fed ponders policy and whether to start winding-down it’s massive $4 trillion balance sheet, a Fed economist raised questions as to whether the build-up of that balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE) did any good at all.

“With respect to QE, there are good reasons to be skeptical that it works as advertised, and some economists have made a good case that QE is actually detrimental.” — St. Louis Fed economist Stephen D. Williamson

That assessment begs the question, did global central banks really need to go more than $20 trillion down the QE rabbit-hole in order to reach such a conclusion? I mean the BoJ had been at the QE game for nearly a decade, with little to show for it, before the Fed launched QE1 in late-2008. Perhaps there was a lesson to be learned there.

One thing a world awash in liquidity did accomplish was to inflate asset prices, particularly the stock market. If central banks take the monetary punch-bowl away, is that party about to end?

The ECB is apparently already having doubts about their plan to start tapering asset purchases, particularly with the euro reaching near three-year highs. Some at the central bank are in favor of keeping their options open to expand QE into 2018.

According to Reuters, “Hawks see the currency’s strength as testament to the euro zone’s strong economic growth, while doves fear it reflects weakness in the United States and Britain.” If the reality is ultimately revealed to be closer to the latter, easier Fed policy and a weaker dollar will prevail. And that should be bullish for gold.

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