“The following is taken from the 1930s US Great Depression chapter of A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises (which is available for free download HERE). I’m passing it along because I think that the 1935-40 period is most analogous to the current period and that it is worth reflecting on what happened then when thinking about US-Chinese relations now. To be clear, I’m not saying that we are on a path to a shooting war, but I am saying that we have to watch what path we are on, given these cause-effect relationships that history has taught us and that are described in the template. This excerpt describes how the economic and political conditions of the late 1930s evolved into the wars that followed.
USAGOLD note: Dalio brings attention to a chronology that recounts eerily striking similarities between now and the 1935-1940 period. I will throw into the mix Neil Howe’s (co-author The Fourth Turning) observations that the last fourth turning came during the 1930s and ended with World War II. The current fourth turning, he says, began with the 2008 financial crisis – an event he predicted in 1997. Overnight China cancelled upcoming trade talks with the United States.
Related please see: Bridging the ‘fourth turning’ with gold (8-20-2018)
Image by Grameen America (https://vimeo.com/247028348) [CC BY 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons