HSBC Raises Silver Forecast 16% as Geopolitical Risks Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Gold spot prices showed resilience on Friday, August 29, 2025, trading near $3,444 per ounce, up $28.21. The precious metal maintained strength above the critical $3,400 psychological level and remained on track for its second consecutive weekly gain and best monthly performance since April, with August gains reaching 4.1% month-to-date. Silver spot prices are trading around $39.43 per ounce, up $0.36. The white metal still posted impressive monthly gains of approximately 4.9% and year-to-date returns of 34.5%. The dollar index strengthened modestly by 0.4%, creating headwinds for dollar-denominated metals, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields held near two-week lows despite revised GDP data showing the U.S. economy grew 3.3% in Q2, up from the previously reported 3.0%. Market participants focused intently on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge—with core PCE expected to hold steady at 2.8% annually, as markets have priced in an 86-87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September.

In a significant development that underscores the evolving dynamics of precious metals markets, HSBC has dramatically revised its silver price forecasts upward for the next three years, citing mounting geopolitical risks and gold’s record-breaking performance as primary catalysts. The British banking giant now projects silver will average $35.14 per ounce in 2025—a substantial 16% increase from its previous forecast of $30.28—with continued strength expected through 2026 at $33.96 per ounce (versus the earlier $26.95 estimate) and $31.79 in 2027 compared to the prior $28.30 projection. HSBC analysts emphasized that silver’s rally stems largely from its close correlation with gold rather than underlying supply-demand fundamentals, describing record-high gold prices as exerting a “strong gravitational pull” on the white metal. The bank noted that while industrial demand for silver may edge lower in 2025 after four consecutive years of record growth, any decline will likely be limited, with recovery expected in 2026 driven by key sectors including photovoltaic solar panels and electronics manufacturing. HSBC’s supply-demand model projects an expanding silver deficit of 206 million ounces in 2025, widening from 167 million ounces in 2024, before moderating to 126 million ounces in 2026, while ongoing Federal Reserve policy debates and a weaker dollar environment provide additional tailwinds for precious metals investment demand.

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