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"Think now, if you are a person of "great worth" is it not better to acquire gold over years, at better prices? If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow!" --ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) 1/10/98 [Follow contemporary writings of "ANOTHER" and "Friend of ANOTHER" at the Gold Trail] |
"If ANOTHER's claims are true -- that a consortium of oil states has cornered the gold market (and given the impressive circumstantial evidence, this could very well be the case) -- these "footsteps of giants" become the most salient and persuasive case for gold ownership I have seen in the past decade, if not the full twenty-eight years I have been in the gold business." -- Michael J. Kosares, president of Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.; author of The ABCs of Gold Investing
USAGOLD is pleased to offer these special pages of commentary that are sure to challenge conventional perceptions of the gold market and international monetary affairs -- made even more intriguing because this exceptional commentary is offered by two anonymous authors, "ANOTHER" and "Friend of ANOTHER" (FOA). Based on our ongoing association with these commentators, we are confident that the messages you are about to read will continue to be as fascinating and as worthy of careful study as anything you will find on the web today.
After watching the readership of their sometimes enigmatic but always thought-provoking commentary grow by leaps and bounds at our discussion forum, through this archive we can discuss the road ahead having all had a chance to travel this same route behind.
We encourage you to follow along (or to catch up), and then to join your friends at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum to share in the discussion. A note on the text: No attempt has been made to correct typographical errors, misspellings, punctuation, grammatical and/or textual errors as originally submitted. This archive of ANOTHER's online commentary is presented here in its unedited entirety in the order his "THOUGHTS!" were posted via the Internet -- beginning at the Kitco website (from October 1997 to April 1998) then proudly hosted here at our expanded USAGOLD website (from May 1998 onward) through mutual agreement and cooperation with ANOTHER.
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 12:58
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
With this post of:
Date: Sat Feb 28 1998 16:33
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
I offered, that these thoughts would be as "morning sun thru the fog of night". Today, this sun does shine. Kitco does offer a public right, for all to see. We step forward and make this "right" as day. Please read the post that soon follow:
The Management of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s
A Noble Purpose, This Oil For Gold
Change
At appx. 19:00 USA /CST I will offer a post for "Price".
thank you
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
The Management of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s
For any currency to maintain a "reserve" status, it must be, in some fashion, convertible into gold! In the past, the US$ was freely exchanged for a "fixed" amount of gold. $20 dollars was equal to one ounce. If the country wanted to make it's money stronger, it would lower the amount of currency units fixed to one ounce. $10 dollars per ounce made the currency more valuable in the market and it would buy more things. Also, a country could decrease the value of it's currency by raising the number of units to the ounce of gold, say $40. The problem with the "fixed" gold system is found in matching the amount of gold in the treasury to the "fix"! To make the money stronger, one had to bring in gold, as it took twice as many ounces to back a currency "in circulation" at $10 as it did at $20! The reverse is true when lowering the money value to $40. Then, one half the treasury gold backing had to be removed as only half was now needed to back the dollar.
You have probably not read this "slant" on the past gold standard because it was never quoted in quite that way, nor looked at in that fashion. If you allow your mind to perceive the above, one will clearly see that it was gold that gave the currency value. In that time one did not look to see how many dollars gold was valued with, rather, how much gold was bid for each unit in circulation!
Today, the world reserve currency is not on a "fixed" gold standard, it is on a "freely convertible" gold standard. One may, anywhere in the world, convert US$s into gold. This new "freely convertible" standard does still allow the dollar to be backed by gold for those who still demand a gold "fixing". That requirement is enforced by a certain commodity, oil. Yet, there is a price for the benefit of having all oil sales settled in US$. Yes, even in this modern era, for the US$ to remain on an "oil standard" it must be on some form of "gold standard"! Regain the perception in the top paragraph. Then understand that for oil to back the dollar, the dollar must find value in gold. And the dollar finds more value if it is fixed by the "freely convertible" gold standard, to buy more gold!
This convertible gold market is old from the mid 70s but is new from the early 90s. It is old by the 70s because it is "freely convertible", but it is new by the 90s as it "is not" "freely tradable"! The US$ price of physical gold is no longer "fixed" from supply and demand, rather it is "created" through the market action of "paper gold". Truly, it is the US$ has become the "item traded" in the "paper gold" market, not physical gold. Participants have yet to realize that the gold futures, gold options and gold forward markets, worldwide, have become little more than currency trading arenas. The percentage of gold delivered against these markets has grown so small as to be nonexistence when compared to actual metal settled at closing. Physical gold does still move, and in size, but this is little or nothing compared to the "paper gold" traded.
We are brought to this point for a purpose, but how did we get here? The largest producers of gold were introduced to the use of large scale "forward contracts" by the Bullion Banks. Once the process started, good business required it to expand. Shareholders want maximum profits at all price levels and "forward deals" were good at any price of gold. Once hooked on "hedge profits" during the good times of a high gold price, the mines now "must have at all cost" "forward deals", just to survive. Some say the mines will not forward sell at these, break even prices. However, the shareholders say it's better to hedge now, for a lower price will bring doom! With the US$ price of gold holding at just above average break even levels, and the ensuing virtual bankruptcy of several well known companies, it appears that the mine owners are correct.
Understand, that many entities lend gold, but it is the CBs that started and do most of it. Their purpose was to create a "paper gold" market that would allow them to manage the "freely convertible" price of gold. The CB lends the gold to a bank that sells it on the open market. ( Usually, the gold is placed privately as it must go to the correct destination. ) Then the bank holds the money and draws interest as incremental payments are made to the mine for new gold delivered against the contract. Over the long period that a mine takes to produce and repay the gold, this money grows. To grasp the fact that the CBs had a plan, is to know that they lend the gold for only 1% or 2% while the proceeds set in a Bullion Bank and grow with interest for the benefit of the BB and the mine! And further, the lenders allow the return of the gold to be extended out for many years, as in "spot deferred". The CBs allow public opinion to think of this as "typical government stupid", it's not!
Now that the gold price in US$ is around production cost, most mines must use "paper gold" to survive. The gold industry is coming under world bank domination, without signing away any sovereignty! Slowly, the CBs are gaining the ability to manage production and price with this simple tool.
"If they want new mine supply on the market, they roll over the contract to the BB. If they want new supply off the market, they allow the BB to pay for and take delivery of the gold and return it to the CB vault." "Also, by offering ( or withholding ) vault gold from lease, they affect the lease rate and thereby control private lending as well"
Understand that the second sentence action is used because gold lending is done by many different entities. Many times a mine isn't even involved. Sometimes, gold isn't even involved, just paper. But, it's still based on the gold price! The paper price, that is.
thank you
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:19
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
A Noble Purpose, This Oil For Gold
When one considers the merits of a specialized world oil currency, the thought usually turns immediately to "send in the military and stop them". I must ask, why? If an oil currency is born before or out of the shambles of an financial meltdown, and it offers great benefit to all, again I ask, why stop it? Look at the merits of such a move:
In a very real "currency sense", oil will be devalued in terms of gold. As one makes a currency weaker by increasing the money units per ounce of gold. Oil will become very cheap in gold, as the amount of gold paid per barrel will fall dramatically as compared to today's ratio. There will be much more than enough gold worldwide to quantify a "world oil currency". To that end, the world paper "reserve currency" at use in that time, will continue to be traded for oil at an extremely low price relative to today. The only change will be the addition of a "unit of real value" added to each trade, a "world oil currency", gold! However, in terms of today's currencies, gold will be "upvalued" to perhaps $10,000 to $30,000 an ounce. So as not to rewrite what is already an excellent piece on this coming readjustment, I will repost part of Mr. Allen ( USA ) 's perfect article on the subject along with his requested changes per his :
Date: Mon Dec 15 1997 11:06
Allen ( USA ) ID#246224:
Date: Sun Dec 14 1997 18:59
Allen ( USA ) ( More ruminations re: ANOTHER's recent posts ) ID#255190:
Last one on this topic until more ANOTHER posts. I'm not sure that it would be necessary to have that large a cabul in on the "offer" of oil for gold. Given the rather small market in gold in comparison to oil/currencies it would only take one or two well endowed oil states to pull this off. Here's why.Let's say the Saudi's have been accumulating gold through the back door ( approx. 5,000 tonnes ) . They sell say 20 Mln Bbl oil a day. Close enough. At one ounce of gold per thousand Bbl oil that's 10,000 ounces of physical gold per day. That's a lot of physical gold.
The first few moments after the Saudi's proposal to trade oil for gold at a very steep discount of 1000 Bbl/oz ( approx. 1.5% of current US$ price ) there would be roars of laughter. One fast thinker after another would think "Hey. I buy some gold at $300/oz, trade for oil to receive 1 Mln Bbl, then sell the 1 Mln Bbl for US$ 10 Mln. Net profit is
$10,000,000-$300,000=$9,700,000. Easy money." .
Everyone at once turns to the gold market to buy, which promptly shuts down. Now no one is laughing. Because everyone realizes that gold is now worth at least $10,000 per ounce and no one is prepared for that revaluation. Whoever has gold now has 66.67 times the purchasing power in that stockpile. What appeared to be a stupid offer has now become a complete revaluation of all gold stockpiles vs all currencies.
Who has the gold?
( per corrections :Date: Mon Dec 15 1997 11:06 Allen ( USA ) ID#246224: )
Saudi stockpile guest-imate 5,000 metric tonnes = 5,000,000,000 GRAMS not ounces. Gold now at US$9.65 per gram revalued by multiple of 66.67 = US$643.37 per gram x 5 Bln grams = US$3.2 Tln.
Germany 2900 metric tonnes = 2.9 Bln grams, revalued to US$1.8 Tln.
USA 8,085 metric tonnes = 8.1 Bln grams, revalued to US$5.2 Tln.
Is this plausible??? How is it possible by making one little change in oil dealings could this ever happen? It is simply the very intelligent use of the scarcity of gold and the necessity of oil. It is the desire of one party, who is big enough to swamp the gold market, to make it the preferred vehicle for buying oil. In fact if not one ounce of gold is ever transacted for oil, but the offer is continued intact, then gold will be revalued simply by the possibility of trading. Those who are in a bad way in their currency situation can always get oil with their gold.
What would the impact of this revaluation of gold and currencies do? It would instantly shift economic and financial power into the hands of those who own large amounts of gold: CB's, Saudi's, Roths et al. It would mean that gold/oil would be THE CENTRAL POINTS OF ECONOMIC REFERENCE. It would mean that currencies would be devalued by a factor of 1000 in relationship to the new standard of gold ( as a proxy for oil wealth ) It would upset an awful lot of people. There would be no TARGET to shoot at or take over, however, because all other oil producers would immediately jump on this band wagon. Its a simple matter of what an interested party is willing to receive for their goods. Venezuela, with gold and oil reserves and production capacity, would be one of the wealthiest nations on earth. The world would be turned upside down geopolitically, wouldn't it. Literally "..the 'have-not's of the world will become the 'have's.."
Mr. Allen ( USA ) ,
Another thanks you for this thinking. It should be read by everyone
with an interest in this area. It should also be studied by students
wishing to learn of market dynamics. We also offer this piece
as an addumnum to the above, also by the same author.
Date: Mon Dec 15 1997 10:49
Allen ( USA ) ( Quick Note to JTF re: 23:05 post - US$ oil float ) ID#246224:
US$ price of oil is floating. The "proposal" to offer oil for gold at say 1000 Bbl/oz is far below the present float price in US$. The gold market is SO SMALL that if the oil nation that made this proposal was pumping enough oil the gold market would be swamped by oil buyers who were looking to make a few ( !! ) US$ on the discrepancy in price. In effect this would revalue gold by inserting an entire different group of buyers into the gold market who have ALOT of money.
Why is it the oil nation would not just buy at market? Same as above. Their effect in the open market would basically shut down the market thereby frustrating their efforts to buy gold. Conversely, why would they then make the "proposal"? Because either they have enough gold to buy the world at the new price, there is a crisis in which they feel it is to their advantage to do this ( such as a US$ crisis ) or they might have a geopolitical rational. In the new valuation the US$ would still be intact. But its monopoly role would be altered. Its not that currencies would become worthless but that gold would become worth much more in relationship to paper currencies.
To answer the "military" question, asked at the begining of this article, I say:
The massive increase in the "reserve currency" price of gold would, no doubt be ushered into the USA house of congress as a godsend answer to Americas debt problems. With the "full production" of oil, now viewed as a sure thing, The world may well see the USA send the military into the Middle East just to ensure that this "deal" is not disturbed. After all, it is oil that will be massively devalued by gold.
Thank you
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:25
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Change
I would like to start with a post from a gentleman from the Kitco forum as it sets the tone for this article:
Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 22:57
Junior ( @ ANOTHER & Change ) ID#248180:
I am reminded by ANOTHER'S comments regarding "Change" of a profound statement by a spokesman from the Middle East Oil Producers during the mid seventy's ( approx.1975 ) He said: "My Grandfather rode a camel, my Father rode in a Mercedes, I have numerous Jet Aircraft, my Son will ride a Camel." It provokes thoughts that the countries of the Middle East and China are not as nervous about change as the consuming and material minded nations of the West.
Mr., Junior, thank you for that deep thought!
During the span of ones life we must consider weather we really do experience changes or are we just experiencing a rebirth of old values from the past, repackaged for this modern world. In times past, real money did not earn interest unless it was lent out. Yet, it retained value relative to all things. Today, paper currency, also does not earn interest unless it is lent out. However, it does lose value against real things, over time. In this light one must also grasp that a currency unit, in hand, is "lent out already"! It is a credit, to be paid in the future. Truly, cash, outside the banking system is a receipt for "lent out money" that just doesn't earn interest!
Much of the discussion of today, evolves around; How does one recognize real money? My answer is, find the largest store of financial units, held by banks, that is not lent out and does not earn interest. It is by far, gold! There is no other unit, in the world today,that meets this criteria. Even with the current mobilization of bank gold, it is still the number one holding of "non paper credits" that is not lent for return! Some would point to it's price in US$ and say, it does not hold value relative to real things. That would be true, but gold, while allowed to be "freely convertible" into any currency, is not allowed to trade "freely". It's price is managed. It is "The" "political metal"!
We can find one entity in this modern world that firmly holds that gold is "the real money amoungst moneys". That entity is the BIS. They are the only bank in the world that can buy physical gold and become financially "stronger" with this act. They are "The Bank" and their central holding is "The Money" of today. Other CBs buy gold and show it's value as a liability as it is not marked to the market. Yet, they can hold capital of the BIS and it is as a 100% asset!
In this modern financial world, a person of little business knowledge, can make an investment of "world class" proportions! He may, if you will, "walk in Anothers footsteps" and in doing so receive a value for a lifetime of work. The coming change in perception of money will reward courageous buyers with a return unseen in these times!
To use a sophisticated paraphrase from the Kitco Forum, "go gold"!
thank you
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:10
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY TO:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 13:58
Carl ( Another ) ID#341189:
In your scenario as I understand it, gold would only buy oil, nothing else, because the physical gold market would be shut down.
Mr. Carl,
This is a misunderstanding. See the words from "The Management
of Gold, A Simple Tool for the 90s ". They show how the price
for metal is now made by the paper gold market. It is this "paper
gold" market that will be destroyed, first!
As Mr. Mozel has shown in his post of :
Date: Mon Feb 16 1998 17:55
mozel ( The United States Empire ) ID#153102.
"The second threat is, I believe, more out of sight, but more serious. This is the threat from derivatives, the $100 Trillion crazy aunt in the attic. "
Please reread his write. When a "world oil currency" is formed, it will bring forth a great turmoil. Even physical gold will not trade for some time! But, as paper loses are resolved, the governments will form some kind of real gold market. Perhaps, the BIS will make the market for the world, in much the same way as the LBMA. Understand, the new gold physical market will be not as a commodity, but as a free currency!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 14:10
mozel ( @Another ) ID#153102:
If this thing were to come to pass, it will not end with contracts for oil only in gold.
Mozel,
you have a good grasp for the currency issue. I ask you, can you
see the benefits?
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 14:20
Delphi ( ANOTHER - a long-term question ) ID#258129:
Mr. Delphi,
In the time from where you speak, gold will have become as, common
use for all! No country or entity will not use it for all trade.
Do you not agree, it is good for our families and children?
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:22
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALL:
I must be gone for a short time. Please return for discussion
at appx. 19:00 CST/USA. A good amount of time will be for this
talk!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:25
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Mr. Old Gold, I have many thoughts for your reason, but must make connections from far. Prehaps, 19:00?
thank you
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:57
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY TO:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:18
OLD GOLD ( Paper Gold ) ID#238295:
What do you see as the likely trigger for this anticipated golden
earthquake?
Mr. Old Gold,
The US$ price of gold is, now held between several extremes. In
Nov. of last year, a understanding was reached that the "paper
gold" market was out of control. The private market was using
this medium in a way not intended. Gold was to be taken and held
in the $320 to $360 range. This was good for all. As the down
trend was not seen in price yet, it was known that trading was
in place to drop the price. Perhaps, even below The BIS capital
level! Several very large physical buys were made in the off market
( see Date: Sat Nov 29 1997 15:53 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
) as a warning. At that time the CBs started a slowdown in lending
and sales. The market came close to a major resolution. In Jan.
the BIS was close to a large open move, it would have caused a
paper panic.
Oil will not accept the position, as is. Gold must come back into range as oil falls no further. Any loss of perceived control by the CBs will trigger a bid by oil. It would be better for time to pass and allow a natural change to the new oil currency ( perhaps 1 1/2 years ) . However, it is now my view that the CBs have lost control! I expect a break above $360 to create an allout run to infinity, before year end. Physical gold should be purchased for a lifetime holding, not a trade.
thank you
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:30
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:47
Delphi ( @ANOTHER ) ID#258129:
What will happened with oil price in long term, when reserves of it will be mostly consumed?
Mr. Delphi,
A good thought, sir! Perhaps, oil will be replaced in 20 or 30
years? Oil has a very short history when compared to gold! I would
say, my oil should be replaced with gold for that time to come!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 16:32
chas ( Another re "gold in the ground" ) ID#342282:
Mr. Chas,
During the time that must come, all forms of paper ownership of
things will come into question. Many persons have accepted the
"wall street/gold stock" way as a true holding of gold,
it is not the right holding for our new future! This new gold
market is not as before and will bring much confusion of the "perceived
values" that mines represent. Indeed, a mine may hold the
value of $1.00 as all other things fall to $0.00, but it offers
no safety of worth, if you purchased it at $20.00. It will be
a bitter lesson for gold investors with a short history of life.
good luck
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 17:11
Jack ( MR. ANOTHER ) ID#252127:
Is my reasoning correct?
Mr. Jack,
The outline you have given, will no doubt, only be the beginning.
I must ask anyone, if gold went to even $10,000/ oz.in current
purchasing value, would that not be enough? History has shown
that persons that hold gold during times of change, do always
find a better life. Think now, if you lived in 1975, would a 8,500
Dow not have looked as "not a real expectation", but
thinking and perception of value does change!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 21:03
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 18:19
WetGold ( @ANOTHER ) ID#243180:
What do you know of the Dinar comments posted from the Islamic Mint ?
Mr. WetGold,
I understand it. I do think of it as the beginning of a change
in the perception of value by all persons.
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:22
SWP1 ( @ANOTHER ) ID#233199:
Mr. SWP1,
Please study the history of wealth as it has moved thru time and
change. What your perceptions of value are now? Follow in the
footsteps of times past, trace it's steps in the minds of others.
You will find the value for your future lie in gold today!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 19:30
Snowball ( @ANOTHER ) ID#234218:
Mr. Snowball,
Please read the:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 15:10
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Gold will become a currency
"of choice" by all, for the benefit of all. Those of
"lost paper wealth" will not remove coins from the world.
They will use this deep currency as a building tool. Coins are
good!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:16
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:01
Neophyte ( Another - ECB gold holdings? ) ID#390249:
Do you know how much gold the ECB will hold as part of its reserves?
Mr. Neophyte,
I do not know. I have knowledge of some discussion for 15% with
a individual country holding that is very high. If this is as
a final outcome, many CBs will be forced to call in lent gold
and buy. I have reason to find this to be as fact!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:02
BillD ( ANOTHER...PERHAPS an unimportant question...but ) ID#261269:
What do you foresee for silver ???
Mr. BillD,
It will not be purchased as a currency replacement. But, in the
minds of persons with private holdings, it will be as a currency
in time of change. I think it will gain much, but only after a
trading halt by gold. Percentage wise, it will not equal gold
as many expect.
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:17
Psilver Psyched ( @Another ) ID#216217:
The USA has been openly courting Venezuelan oil?
Mr. Psyched,
Please reread the most recent posts from Another. Your question
should be: Why would the USA buy most of it's oil from Venezuelan
when it would be far cheaper to buy it from the ME using gold?
It is possible that the new oil bid will come about with the introduction
of the EURO and give that currency the oil backing!
All:
If the EURO is backed with gold in a large way, oil may be purchased
with EUROs and even a smaller amount of gold!
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:55
Lurker 777 ( Another ) ID#317247:
Mr. Lurker,
As a person learns, so to does he act! As in all things of life,
it is more safe to follow a well walked trail. Truly, many have
walked this path of gold. But, as no two men can take the same
step, each must gather wealth as his experience will allow.
There is no standard percentage of gold for all persons.
Also, the CBs may start to call
back their leases. Together, we will read this new book of gold.
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:37
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 22:16
mozel ( @ANOTHER ) ID#153102:
The benefits are plain to see.
But, it is not clear that gold mines would lose value. Oil wells will not, so why should gold mines ?
Mr. Mozel,
The USA placed a special "windfall profits" tax on domestic
oil during the last major rise in prices. I do think the oil stocks
would have shown a greated value had this tax not been in place.
Because gold will soon become a currency, mines will be taxed
in a much greater way. Also, domestic mines will be asked to sell
directly to the treasury at the "preceived commodity value"
value of gold, plus an opperating margin. As no private company
will be allowed do your treasury job, "produce money".
Gold in the hands of the public will be thought of as a good thing,
as citizens are asked to "pull own weight" as the government
is much under.
Are you of this mind?
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:45
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:41
Neophyte ( Another ) ID#390249:
My mistake! Will not use the
Mr. or Ms. in the future.
Date: Sun Mar 08 1998 00:11
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:43
Logical ( Oil getting out at the top? ) ID#320219:
Logical,
Yes, this journey will be as one never traveled, for many! Indeed,
a fit body and strong mind will be needed to carry gold down this
economic mountain! The weight of gold will cause some to fall,
even as others find this load helps to place the foot firmly on
ground.
Traders say, "gold go to
$250 or $200", if yes, then they are right and I an wrong!
But, when gold turns as in a storm, I will "own them"
for all of their days! Time will prove all things!
Date: Sun Mar 08 1998 00:39
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sun Mar 08 1998 00:17
Lurker 777 ( ANOTHER ) ID#317247:
Sir, a day will come, when those who have sold gold they do not own, will be forced to buy it back. It is the nature of men, to once in life do a foolish deed for gain. Some walk away, with understanding. Some stay to long and are made to walk low without wealth. Today, our world is fat with stolen profits in a paper world, even as poor ones starve.
In that day, men such as I, will take from those who make simple ones hide! You will find not the lies of paper in my house.
thank you
I will be gone for a size of
time.
Date: Mon Mar 09 1998 07:55
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALL:
The purchase of large physical stocks of gold in Nov. did send
a message to the CBs. They did begin slowdown of sales/easing.
The "management tool of gold in the 90s" ( see Date:
Sat Mar 07 1998 13:08 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253 ) is now to
go into reverse! A large purchase, now, is sending another message,
"bring gold back into $320 to $360 US$ range. We should see
this in five to ten days. This will be a hard thing, as it may
create a crush to cover. Let us watch this "new gold market",
as it is not as before.
I will post later in march!
Date: Fri Mar 20 1998 22:12
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
I hope all persons could see the "new" true nature of the Central Banks this week. I call it "The change that did happen"! If you read the post of Sat. Mar 07 1998 13:08 Another, that was written for me, it speaks of it all. The banks do want gold to rise now, and they will pull in physical gold to replace leases, even if they must "pay high on the market". They do not rollover these loans now.
It was never the intent, for gold to fall from $320 / $360 range. The fall happened as the paper gold market is "out of control"! As physical is brought back into this range, much will be done to hold LBMA together. We watch togeather, yes?
Also, see the post of Fri. Jan 23 1998 18:03 Another. There was offered the intent of crude oil going to $12.00 US range. That price was found "this week". Hear me, twelve dollar oil does not want or need gold under $320, I know!
Also, I am shown how many persons did understand my last post. These same may not agree, but they do understand the "intent" of THOUGHTS. I do understand the ways of ones who are "hot against" my writings. This is good, as "proof is never found in the agreement of all persons", and it is so, that this justice is found not only in my home but my country!
I will offer a post on Sat. 21 if possible. I wish to converse on Kitco with Mr. Allen ( USA ) and Mr. Markus sometime in the future, if I may. It would be as thinking for "all".
thank you
Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 13:55
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALLEN ( USA )
Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 14:33
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Do I learn from persons at Kitco? Yes. Will persons learn from these discussions? I do not know. As Mr. Kitner is the judge, I ask for "latitude" in this discussion. My intent is to bring the "reality of gold" into a better focus, thru oil.
Mr. Allen,
I ask for your time and personal thoughts on this "now to
be", ongoing discussion of gold. In my world, " To understand
gold, one must start with oil"! Let us go back in time, to
the early 70's. Many did view the oil market as an attempt at
a "cartel" to keep the price high in USD terms. My view,
from the where I stand, did show a "cartel" for public
image. However, the oil market was never controlled to move the
price higher! It was controlled to keep the price down! Even "back
then", oil was managed in much the same way as gold is today.
Yes, oil became "gold" from an economic viewpoint, "black
gold" if you will! In that time, as today, oil and gold had
to be managed to keep their true value, in terms of currencies
from destroying the free market financial system based on low
prices for both. Politically, there is much more to gain, by producing
countries, by "managing" it's price down, than by "allowing"
it's price to rise thru freemarket use!
( there is more to this point,
do I continue, or do you wish to add/debate/discuss, now? )
Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:59
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Mr. Allen,
Many view oil and gold with basic "commodity eyes".
But, I ask you, does supply and demand create the price of these
items? On the surface, it does, just as any item. However, look
under the cover of public reporting, and we find that, what is
being traded is not the actual commodity, but a paper proxy, contracts
usually expressed and settled as "various currencies"
not the item itself! I offer this consideration to all, would
oil or gold hold the same currency price if no paper future market
existed? Think long and hard on this, if oil and gold were bought
and sold "marked to the market" physical for cash, would
the USD price stay the same in todays economy?
Oil is managed from the standpoint of "supply" not demand, as demand is infinite for this now indispensable substance. The world economic need for oil has build our modern financial structure as an upside down pyramid, on oil! Every business, asset, debt, currency and army is "priced in currency terms" that reflect a "full supply of cheap oil"!
But, what is cheap oil? It is defined in two terms, a currency price that allows a country to operate it's economy in a competitive way, and, in another real commodity price that allows producers to value their product as an asset, not subject to the valuations of the world economy, gold.
From this standpoint, one can see the value of managing both oil and gold. For the oil field owner, operating in a "oil consuming" country, there is no value in this form of management! But, from an "oil producing" country, holding world class reserves, a low USD price offeres all the advantages. It produces an ever "dependent" economic system, that, "in real terms of need" "upvalues all inground reserves" with a far higher "future need". That "future need", as expressed in a drive "to maintain current asset values ( dow jones ) " creates the political drive to manage oil prices!
( there is more to this point, do I continue, or do you wish to add/debate/discuss, now? )
I must stop here. We can continue another day, yes?
Thank You.
Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 16:07
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALLEN ( USA ) ,
I ask also, if we may "pickup" where we leave this?
I have questions for you in addition to answering yours.
Thank you
Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 06:37
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Allen ( USA ) ,
I will continue some at 19:00cst. Will address some others thoughts/questions
from past posts with this write. Also, questions for you.
thank you
Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 19:13
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Allen ( usa ) ?
Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 20:01
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Allen ( USA ) ,
I will pickup from my last post ( Date: Sat Mar 21 1998 15:59
) , but must add this. I did find humor in the post from SDR_er,
"that the resulting high price of oil was an "unintended
consequence"! This was of the early OPEC, yes, it was truly
that way. Some thoughts on this later.
Mr. Allen, the "Beirut Resolution" was real. In that time, the threat was to price oil in all currencies, not just US$! When the US$ went off the gold standard, the problem was not that oil would buy gold. The gold "free"market was very small for oil. In the back rooms, all talk was "how to keep oil prices and "settled" in US$! As the dollar was the reserve for all countries, a move from oil in dollars would have destroyed it and the financial systems of most large economies. With the US$ just off the gold system, it was very susceptible to any loss of usage.
The price rise of oil was much more than many thought would hold ( SDR_er ) . We found that it was the fear of "oil not priced in US$s" that kept the price rise in tact. As the resulting price of oil in dollars, after it's removal as "oil reserve currency" was the true reflection of pricing in the, then current market. Not the oil supply cutbacks. All knew that high price from cutbacks, "alone" would have never held!
To hold a dollar backed oil system, the governments agreed to create a liquid "free" gold market. They did this by selling much gold over years and allowing it to rise to $200 US. Then, as now, free dollar reserves could go into gold. As the US treasury did no longer back US$ with gold, it hurt not the currency. In a very real way, the dollar went onto a "oil standard" to replace the old "gold standard". As $180/$200 was to be the limit, for gold ( the BIS set at $180 then ) , in 1978 the US did bomb the gold when it went to $250. The market went out of control and rest is history.
For many years, gold was kept high for the price of "oil standard", after gulf war this system fell apart. But, I am ahead of self, questions / comments?
my post take much time to transmit,
apologize.
Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 20:46
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Allen ( USA ) ,
Many have thought that oil is in short supply/reserve and someday
we run out. In that time the price will rise due to shortage.
This is not true for your lifetime. There is a great deal of energy/oil,
for a very long time. The shortages will not come true, look even
to the past important reports that say oil run out in 1989! As
the crude oil will be fueling your economy for many years, one
should look to the "market for oil" not the supply.
It will be the "change of this century" as oil finds
a new "medium of exchange". Even the SDR_er looks for
producers to cut back:
"Perhaps you refer to a price that is sufficiently high to compel conservation on the part of the consumer? Thus restricting sales of the producers? " "But would this not allow the producers to produce at a moderate level over a longer period of time? What am I not considering?
Oil does not look to cut back, but to supply more! What is now found, is a currency that will allow full supply without loss of wealth.
Mr. Allen, do you see the EURO
as a help in this area? Would you use EUROs as a currency in your
land, side by side with the US$?
Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 21:53
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Allen ( USA ) ,
Your thoughts, they are true American. I ask a honest question;
Do you feel the future is at risk if you must use another currency
for trade? If yes, why? I ask this for others, in lands apart
from yours. They use your US$ and feel that "it works",
and the future is not at risk.
Also: Your question?
"The Persian Gulf war part has me a bit confused"?
Yes, it did bring a different outcome from what was expected. I will write of this next time.
I will make commits to other questions, later.
Thank you
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 21:55
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY,
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 14:31,
PH in LA ,
Part of the problem for last night was on my end. Two of my post
held at one computer and were sent to europe. I will no longer
try to "converse" on a "quick basis" as the
thought is lost over time. Will address individual posts as able.
Some writers offer much thought, but I am unable to speak of each.
The "Peat" does do much!
Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 21:23
Thomas ( Doubts ) ID#372400:
"I would agree that the idea of oil-exporters demands to provide gold as payment for oil is not impossible, provided that Another is right on a major assumption -- that oil-exporters have the control to dictate oil prices. he game looks rather plausible -- oil-exporters keep prices low to make stronger the future shock of huge price increases. "
Sir,
Producers do not create the price for oil, the world economy does.
Producers can and do "controll" one thing, "full
production"! They hold the controll to offer "all out
supply" and the $4.00 price that would bring! THAT "controll"
is all that is needed to create "correct" political
and economic conditions. What creates your "future shock
of huge price increases"? A currency system "that no
longer values real things" on equal basis to preceived value
of "economic trade"!
Also, you write,
"If some "very simple minded" people in oil-exporting countries decide to blackmail West with oil -- what would be the outcome?"
Sir, I offer you my posts of past, if this is "blackmail", I should think your army would be sent to enforce such!
Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:22
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
REPLY:Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:06
Schultz ( ANOTHER ) ID#288349:Schultz,
Your view is a good one. The perception of the US is one of your view from where you stand. Many do not hold America as a "taker without cause". At a low ratio of gold per barrel, with gold priced high enough, the USA would no doubt receive oil, relative to today at perhaps $8.00. The Us gold reserve and in ground reserve would last a great while. Also, the US gold reserve value would increase a great deal!That, your Washington would understand, VERY WELL!
Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:07
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
REPLY:Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 21:35
Tyler Rose ( ANOTHER ) ID#373164:
If, as you say, a major oil producer were to say that they value oil at $x per barrel, and we will take payment 1/2 in dollars or eurodollars and 1/2 in gold, then it would be to the benefit of that oil producer to "value" gold aslow as possible, in order that they would receive more gold for the 1/2 of the payment in gold.Tyler Rose:
At this point of time the drive would be to make a usable currency. Thiswould require a high value for gold. For gold to trade with oil on a physical basis would also require perhaps a small fraction of gold/bl.All would gain from this. The intent is not to destroy the oil market.
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 22:35
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY,
Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 20:58
Logical ( ANOTHER ) ID#320219:
" Your proposing an upheaval in international currency- is that why the EMU will be backed by so much gold or do we look else where for the future international currency? Your earlier posts had a much more urgent tone has oils plans been pushed to the right or is the increased gold backing of the EMU a workable solution for the interim? "
Sir,
The large gold backing for the Euro and the "much greater"
gold reserves for the individual countries of the Euro, is a direct
result from observations of gold buying by oil! If it is well
known by the BIS that a move by oil to bring crude to $10.00 US,
is a precursor to an "new world oil currency", then
it is well known to the Euro makers! Gold will be managed back
to a range of $320/$360 with much hope for participation of Euro
as "the" "currency/gold" payment for oil.
My knowledge is that the new range will bring a breakup to the
London operation, with the ensuing run by gold to infinity. We
will watch this, together, yes? I offer my past thought:
Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:16
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:Neophyte ( Another - ECB gold holdings? ) ID#390249:
Do you know how much gold the ECB will hold as part of its reserves?Mr. Neophyte,
I do not know. I have knowledge of some discussion for 15% with a individual country holding that is very high. If this is as a final outcome, many CBs will be forced to call in lent gold and buy. I have reason to find this to be as fact!Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:01
Mr. Psyched,
Please reread the most recent posts from Another. Your question should be: Why would the USA buy most of it's oil from Venezuelan when it would be far cheaper to buy it from the ME using gold? It is possible that the new oil bid will come about with the inroduction of the EURO and give that currency the oil backing!
All:
If the EURO is backed with gold in a large way, oil may be purchased
with EUROs and even a smaller amount of gold!
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:12
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY,
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 10:53
jonesy ( Re. Escapism / ANOTHER / Dow Bulls / Euro / Titanic / Sluts Endeared / Violins ) ID#251166:
Sir,
Your post was of much interest for me. The new country, "America"
was also a fantastic dream for many. However, for some, this "dream
of a great nation" did come true! For all you find to look
down on her, she is still held as the "best of the best".
I find this to be a true feeling for myself, also. The greatest
changes in history were always found with much confusion and anguish
by the very persons that made "just history",
"great history"!
"find our new world the same from before, as history will look back to see when men changed the perception of value"
thank you
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:31
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY;
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 22:44
clone ( Another - a different view... ) ID#269245:
Sir,
I respect your view as it makes much right. But, I ask you, what
if? In response to a world wide currency crisis and possible depression,
Oil offers to sell it's reserves for a much lower price than today.
For your eyes, I will say, they "drastically devalue oil,
using gold"! One producer offers to accept a currency price
of $8.00US and a tiny fraction/oz. gold. With all CBs holding
much gold, the market dynamics would raise the reserves of many
nations several thousand %. Would this not be a welcome to a cash
strapped world?
All:
I ask you, why did the world go off the gold standard in the early
70s? You have an answer, yes? For all the problems this created,
could the countries not just revalue gold upward, to say $300
( back then ) ? What was the real reason the world entered a period
of "freely traded" "managed gold"?
Thank You
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:58
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY;
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:13
Junior ( ANOTHER @ ) ID#248180:
Copyright © 1998 Junior/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It appears to me that the strongest position of Oil Exporter Nations outside of the USA is the "Threat" or actually the "Move" to full production resulting in very cheap oil for an extended time period. Does this equal the "Change" or trigger the "change"?I do not understand?
You state: "The USA/IMF and its' Hegemoney currency could not withstand cheap oil prices."
Mr. Junior,
Be very sure to understand this: They can "stand cheap oil
prices". But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as
the "world reserve currency" that makes them "fight"
a lower oil price, and the new "world oil currency"
that it would bring!
Bring this thought into focus
and you will inderstand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. And
why Iraq invaded. The warships are an attempt to keep prices from
"falling"! You think long and hard on this!
Date: Thu Mar 26 1998 00:10
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:44
Myrmidon ( @ Another ) ID#345268:
"Sir, Those countries whose CB's do not hold much gold, how are they going to survive in the event of a significant upvaluation of gold?"
They will work and produce as all do. See the Japans, they own no oil? Yet, somehow they make much wealth. We must clear our minds of gold as a commodity, it is a money, and money is used to BUY! The oil producers will not keep all gold, as they do not keep any currency. Gold will move, but it will move with honor!
I ask you to read the ( Fri. Jan 23, 1998 22:57 ) written for me. It offers a true "feeling" for gold.
Thank You
Date: Thu Mar 26 1998 00:35
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Thu Mar 26 1998 00:14
Interesting Times ( reserve currency shift ( ANOTHER ) ) ID#423355:
"currency nuclear war"?
Sir,
If one closely follows "in the footsteps of giants"
( not the book ) , he will also be preparing for a "currency
war"! Time passes, thoughts change, people consider and value
is perceived differently. Persons say, "the seasons are all
the same", but we know "the weather is never the same".
A storm approaches YOUR SHORES from across the pacific!
Mr. Lurker 777,
You have much leverage with gold, yes? Your tomorrow, it does
not come soon enough? Even some countries are as such! Gold will
find a new range, if the CBs say so.
They say so!
I must be gone for a time.
Thank You, very much
Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 08:32
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
All:
On March 18, the Belgian Central Bank said it sold 299 tonnes
of gold last week. This sale/purchase was ongoing, completed and
announced during the time frame of my post ( of Date: Mon. Mat
09, 1998, 07:55 )
This purchase was completed by the BIS for it's account and held in five CBs. It was made at appx $305us. As this transaction was made public within the 5 to 10 day time frame, did that mean gold would move to it's new range of $320/$260 in that time also? No. What it does show, is that the BIS has made a decision to "no longer support the LBMA gold paper with CB gold"!
The central underlying questions from the beginning of these "Thoughts", was always, "will the CBs become the primary gold suppliers in the continued support of low oil prices" and " will the oil producers accept a world gold market that supplies only "non-mined" gold"? In the process of traveling to this point in time, the world governments found this new oil/gold arrangement, so successful for "paper asset" prices ( Dow Jones? ) , that they allowed the markets to supply any and all "gold paper" possible! Now, with the world awash in "US dollars" and "gold paper", a new asset is being formed to "draw" the oil producers closer to Europe! The offer is the "exact opposite" of the "US dollar agreement", this new offer will drive gold to a value that will allow it to become "the world oil asset and currency" if the producers use the "Euro" as the "oil trading currency"! In this process the Euro will become as solid as the reserves that back it.
Gold in $320 to $360, will be a time of much concern for any and all US dollar and US dollar asset holders. At some point, oil may say "yes" to the EURO, even before it is official, and gold will break to into the thousands with no hold back by CBs. Oil prices in US dollars will explode, even as prices plunge for Euro based currencies, and the US economy will implode. The world US dollar based economy is about to change, and America will find "no point" for warships in the Gulf. I ask you now, "who will defend Arabia"?
Many metal traders see gold as "a lost value from the past" and "a poor investment for simple persons"! I say, these traders have no experience with this new market of gold, as it is as "none before"! Many will find this "asset" was "worth the time of waiting".
Thank you
Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 08:41
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALL:
I will wish for thinking and reply, this day ( April 04 ) . Have
been shown the article "Oracle Of Alberta" on "eagle
site" and will reply!
Thank you
Date: Thu Apr 02 1998 06:24
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALL:
Much is in progress now, and I must be away for a time. Will not
post on April 04. Will write from another country if time will
allow. There will be much thinking with gold, very soon. We will
talk another time, yes?
Thank you
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 19:55
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
All:
I do try and go back to complete where we left off. This question
was offered for thought:
" Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:31
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:All: I ask you, why did the world go off the gold standard in the early 70s? You have an answer, yes? For all the problems this created, could the countries not just revalue gold upward, to say $300 ( back then ) ? What was the real reason the world entered a period of "freely traded" "managed gold"? "
This question has more impact on the gold market of today than it did then! In days past, it was held as good knowledge that the US stopped gold backing to protect the dollar and keep gold from leaving to other shores.
But, in the same time frame, all central banks did sell gold to all persons, even the US. All treasuries held gold and dollars as reserves. To what end did the world financial system gain with the dollar off gold backing, and then allowed to "dirty float" against all currencies? Would the world not have been better off to find gold revalued to, say $300 and then begin a "dirty float"? Noone would have lost, and the inflation would have , at best, not have been worse!
Truly, I tell the reason for this action. The US oil companies knew that the cheap reserves were found. The governments knew this also. The only low cost oil reserves in the world at this time were in the Middle East, and their cost to find and produce was very low. It was known, that, in time, ALL oil would come from this land. As much higher US dollar prices were needed to allow exploration and production of other reserves, worldwide. But, how to get crude prices, up, when the Gulf States were OK to pump and produce in exchange for "gold backed dollars"? I will not name the gentlemen that brought this thinking to the surface in that era, but it was discussed. It was known that oil liked gold. It was known that "local oil" would be used up without higher prices. What if, the US dollar was taken off the gold standard, and gold was managed "upward" to say, $208 per ounce? The dynamics of the market would force oil to rise and allow for much needed capital to search for the higher priced oil that was known to exist! The producers would find shelter in gold even as the price of oil was increased in terms of a now "non gold dollar"! Price inflation would rise, but gold and oil would also increase. The dollar would continue to be used as the only payment for oil, and in doing so replace gold as the backing for this "reserve currency". All would be fair.
The war in 1973 and the Iran problem did make markets "overshoot", but all did work to the correct end. The result was "a needed higher price for a commodity that was, as reserves, in much over supply by the wrong countries"! It was known that the public would never have accepted this "proposition" as fair. To this end, we have come.
And it is from this end, that the gold markets are managed for today! I do now take you to my post to Junior:
Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:58
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
" You state: "The USA/IMF and its'Hegemoney currency could not withstand cheap oil prices." ?" Mr. Junior,
Be very sure to understand this: They can "stand cheap oil prices". But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as the "world reserve currency" that makes them "fight" a lower oil price, and the new "world oil currency" that it would bring. Bring this thought into focus and you will understand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. And why Iraq invaded. The warships are an attempt to keep prices from "falling"! You think long and hard on this! "
All:
Look now and see if the US dollar does not "fight" for
a high oil price! In every way, the question of supply disruptions
is shown as the need for other suppliers. But, other suppliers
cannot produce at a lower price? If the gulf states are allowed
to bring oil "down" to it's true "fair" production
price, in terms of a "correctly higher revalued" gold
price, the US dollar would no longer be priced and backed by oil.
Any paper trading currency would do. I would say, "if the
Euro is strong in gold, and crude oil is allowed to be devalued
by gold at $10,000 to $30,000, then all other paper currency reserves
held against the EURO would be , "for show?"
"The world is going off
the dollar standard as the dollar is going off the oil standard
", find this event "in your time"! We watch this
new gold market, together, yes?
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 20:42
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Tue Mar 31 1998 09:58
Allen ( USA ) ( ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ) ID#246224
" So the Euro will be an alternative to this? Its creators must have known that this 'inflation' of the USA and LBMA markets was not liked by oil. When was this recognized? Was this at the time of the Gulf War ( as you have implied in the past ) ? How was it recognized or communicated to Europe? Certainly the Euro has been built with this 'market' in mind? "
Allen,
The link to my writing was broken during our discussion. Some
items were lost. I do now understand your thoughts. I will now
reply, "as able, over time".
The Gulf War was the last insult! It was viewed as an attempt to show an "unstable area", but the war itself was not intentional, events were "out of control".
We must grasp that all commerce is done, at least, in the US dollar concept of "valuations of real things". In this way, " the true value of the purchase of real money" is hidden from view! Persons will say in the future, "how could gold be $500 one day and $5,000 the next"? I tell you now, it is already past that level, as in "present reserve currency dealings" it is not seen! Consider, that in all that you do and think, your "western values" are of paper concepts. From your birth, real things are not used to cross value themselves! When the battle to keep gold from devaluing oil ( in direct gold for oil terms ) is lost, the dollar will find "no problem" with $30,000 gold, as it will be seen as a "benefit for all" and "why did noone see this sooner"?
Thank you
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 22:42
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 20:57
sharefin ( How can this be? ) ID#284255:
ANOTHER
" How can they reprice gold to $30,000? "
Mr. Sharfin,
This question from you, it proves for my eyes what I have said.
Indeed, if I viewed as a western person, gold money as $30,000
paper dollar credits, my thoughts would also show " this
cannot be"! But, from another world, I view this US$ and
say "how can it be of such value to all and have numbers
as the stars in heaven"? Please understand, money as paper
or metal is as "perception of value in the minds of people".
If all the gold held by earth were placed in the hands as money,
it would be used to revalue every "real thing" at a
fair price. A tiny fraction of gold would buy much production
of goods and services, on a basis equal for all men, not as a
debt for later settlement, as currencies are now!
Thank you
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 23:20
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY,
Date: Thu Mar 26 1998 00:26
Myrmidon ( @ Another ) ID#345268:
" the US will confiscate gold coins and bullion some day? "
Sir,
I think, that gold will be viewed as money by the USA government.
It's new, much higher price will offer a "way out" from
many economic sins. In that day, persons will not try to "buy"
gold, as it will already be used "as currency". To ask,
"how can one afford $30,000 gold" would sound as today
as "how can anyone afford $30,000 in savings account"?
One does earn money, not afford it, yes?
Thank you
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 23:52
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 04 1998 23:12
ALBERICH__A ( @Another: EURO - Who Defends Arabia ? ) ID#254112:
" I'm very interested in your thoughts about the future impact of the possibility of a temporarily imploding US economy, the breakdown of the US$ as a reserve currency, on the geopolitical situation, especially on the ME?"
Sir,
From the past, to this day, America has held the "reserve
currency" for the world. In that time, it has been the economic
fuel for all economies. This is as it should be. However, this
fuel was supplied as debt, borrowed from the future of children
yet unborn. Neither myself, or any other person should enrich
their home by holding the assets that give "bondage upon
future life". It is as a "trader" that plays any
side, without recourse for who is destroyed! "An investment
without honor brings no gain to ones life"!
When the dollar is displaced, it will be as a "leveling" of the world economy. A few will learn to walk without the luxury of holding a debt upon others, "as an asset for gain". But, for every one that is brought low, ten others will gain from the loss of this dollar burden. And when one gains more in life than before, that same does "buy more" and such will be the new engine for the world economy under a new currency. A golden future is "just ahead"!
We must wait to view this "geopolitical situation".
Thank you
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 00:14
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY,
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 00:01
EJ ( ANOTHER: what do you expect as the timetable for the shift?
EJ,
With or without the Euro, we will change in the next few years
or less!
"Money does never change, as do dreams of wealth
So we search for our future, but find out true worth from the past"
I will be gone for a time.
Thank you
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 20:06
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 05 1998 15:20
oris ( Fred ) ID#238422:
"Is it possible that gold will rise to $30,000/oz in the period of nearest 10 years?"
If you say to yourself: "Yes, it's possible!" then ask yourself a question: "But why? But how?".
To All:
This question, is asked much! To this I also add "what price
is money?
Many look to gold and say, "at $30,000, every mine would produce so much that the price will not last", and "with cost to produce below $1,000, all persons would mine gold"! I say, you look at gold and see only a commodity. As world oil currency, it will not be this way. To offer the question:
Your US$, it does cost only one cent or less to produce. It is also a paper commodity, yes? Does the world go into the "paper dollar business" because it can be sold for a dollar and produced for "one cent"? I ask the Mr. Sharfin, "who would buy or who could afford this "dollar" at such a price? Would not every person sell these "paper dollars" as they are priced so far above production cost? No. And the world, today, does produce these paper pieces as "to no end", yet all persons hold dollars for value! Even reserves!
When any commodity becomes money, the free market is not allowed to produce such without laws to govern that production. As any person, worldwide can produce dollars and sell them as a business, it is "against the law". In the time to come, it will be this way with gold also.
The true value of gold, as a monetary currency, in today's current US$ values, is over $30,000. If all currencies were destroyed, and gold only was used, this value would be higher. However, currencies will be used in the future, as today, only their value in trade will change. They will no longer be held as reserves, without gold at their side!
The time is not that far away for all to learn this, we watch these changes together, yes?
Thank you
Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 19:22
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Mr. LGB,
I did come to Kitco with only my "THOUGHTS" to share.
This thinking was offered to all and is "as free as the wind".
Even as my writings were discussed by many, I did never find you
to be a "fraud" or a "hoxier", as your words
were offered with "good intent". Please, find my words
"of record" that were spoken against you, and show them,
"here"?
I find not the reason for your purpose of speech! It offers a nature of "confrontation" and "disruption" for persons of "simple ways" and "thoughts", such as I. As you have your "direction for life", I have a "purpose in life".
I wish you the blessing, "to walk tall with wealth, for all your days", "that one may complete the journey that is given for all to travel". I do instruct "another" to send my "thoughts" where "ears do not bite"!
Good Luck!
Thank You
Date: Thu Apr 16 1998 07:33
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
All:
Together, we can talk of this new gold market. In a day, or two,
we will have much to discuss. I look forward to this.
The Kitco Co., it offers more to the world than a business, "it provides a stage for minds to meet"! This service is of much value to all, yes?
Thank You
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 19:18
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Mr. Sharfin, I thank you for saving my posts. Now I ask you?
Please read these words and consider:
" What Is The Real Price Of Gold IN The Central Bank World?"
If we look back thru the writings of Another, we find an old post that says something to this effect, "You think I am a fool because I trade gold for thousands US$ an ounce". It was a strange statement, but stranger still that no one asked about this. In the very beginning of these "THOUGHTS", the point was offered that gold had increased "dramatically in value these past few years"! This thinking was offered, even as it's currency price was falling to new many year lows. I ask about it today, especially in light of the post of :
"Date: Fri Apr 17 1998 17:11
Aragorn III ( Some thoughts for A.Goose in regard to COMEX and G*O*L*D ) ID#212323"
It is indeed, a paper game Mr. Aragorn, but it is a game of "some advantage", if one can see clearly. The one that posts using SDRer, has shown many times how "Gold Value" is used in international trade. What cannot be seen is the value of gold in the "INTERBANK" world. Here is the realm of "true valuations" in paper currency terms. It is a real shocker for lesser eyes.
In this modern world, the current value of every asset is formed by a relationship of gold/currencies/oil. This cross relationship is the "very basis of our modern world banking system"!
Through this basis, all currencies are given value as the local government treasuries hold US$ as reserves. The US$ is given backing as it's government is guaranteed, that all crude oil, worldwide, will be settled in dollars. An oil reserve backing, if you will. And, the "value" that the "future supply of "currency traded "oil" imparts to the world economy, is guaranteed by an "INTERBANK paper gold MARKET" that values "physical bullion" in the Thousands!
I'll let Another explain:
But, how can this be, you ask? It is done, "right before your eyes" and we see it not! I ask you, if you have one ounce of gold, and sell it on the market for $300, it is worth $300, yes? Now, what if CB hold one ounce of gold, and sell it twenty times, that one ounce is now worth $6,000, no? The difference between you and CB? The persons that hold "interbank" IOU for gold, value it at the multiple of leases/sales made against reserves. This leverage, it is held for performance on bank part. The BIS, it force performance, on any economy! You ask Korea about gold, yes?
This is why oil can take a small amount of physical gold out of world supply, at current "freely traded", "managed prices", and hold it at a many times valuation. That is what gives this "new world gold market" much value in trade at high levels. Look even at your "Comex", and divide the daily volume by the "eligible stocks for delivery". That number ( perhaps three million ounces divided by 150,000 stocks, deliverable, times the spot close gives close, real world price of physical, $6,000. It follows close to paper trade on LBMA.
You see, "physical gold is of much greater value than public traders can move it for"! In your world, this cannot be, but it is, and will show for all to see in your time.
Gold is now being managed back to the $320 - $360 range. But, this few dollars of value is of little use, as forces are at work that will break $360! The CBs are loosing control. I write again in hour or so. We talk then, please.
Thank you
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 20:52
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALL:
The current "paper gold market" is not a physical gold trading arena, as many here have observed and discussed. Truly, in every sense, it is a "currency market" as contracts are settled in the prevailing "currency values" of gold. It is through this process, that gold is purchased "as a stated value in currency terms", not in physical terms. It is known, that a switch to trading of gold to "physical terms" of the same volume as today, would not only bring a huge revaluation in price, it would also destroy the market. The large dealers of today, could not raise the reserves needed to trade a physical market of many thousands an ounce! It is this "possible switch" to "physical trading" that would drastically devalue all currencies, including oil, that much worries the CBs.
The US$ is soon to become a " regular paper currency"! To this end, holders of US dollars and US$ assets, must make a decision that will impact all assets, worldwide! To this end, assets will move to "physical gold " and cash dollars" first, driving up the dollar against all currencies. Then the dollar will be sold as it is deployed into real things.
This change will occur before 2000, as it is beginning now, where no one can see!
As Another would say, "we
watch this new gold market, together, yes", Yes!
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:31
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 19:51
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD
"then the true inflation of the US dollar over the last 20 years, since the last oil shock, would be clearly revealed"?
Mr. GCH,
Today, digital currencies are not to hold value, but to use for
trade only. I do wonder why many were so worried for price inflation,
as it cannot destroy value of a currency that holds not worth
as paper? The dollar of your youth is not the same item. This
modern paper is but a "receipt in commerce"! If a person
holds a "paper trade receipt" as a savings for life,
how can wealth be gained? Look to many lesser countries with currencies
of many zeros, this paper is still in use. Gold has gained much
in these hands and the economy still continues.
Many look to the Dow Jones, and see large gains! But, I say, gains in terms of what? World paper currencies? These gains are not of real things, nor can they ever be totally traded for real things! And, these gains, they come with great risk, yes? For my children, I hold no risk with gold!
Look now, as the CB money makers do now change the rules of engagement! Many zeros will be added to the present "world reserve currency" in "big rush" as the great digital gains of these past few years become as "dreams on a desert night"!
Thank you
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:01
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:04
Carl ( @Another ) ID#341189:
Questions: Do you have a belief about whether the euro will be attractive to oil producers as an oil currency? If the price of gold in dollars begins to rise and the dollar also strengthens against other currencies, as you suggest, will not this accurate the purchase of gold by holders of other currencies?
Mr. Carl,
The partial backing of the Euro with gold is a resent thing. It
was to be only 5% with the understanding that most "European"
oil buys would be settled in Euro. The oil alone would give the
Euro "reserve status". Now the BIS has worked to bring
a possible "80%" of all world buys settled in Euro if
15% to 30% gold is held. This will bring the end of US$ holdings
to act as reserves! In this way, the dollar price of gold would
go to "no end"! This would further allow the Euro to
become "top gun" as the US would even be forced to buy
Euros to buy oil!
Many other currencies would come off the dollar standard as gold rises in their terms.
Make no mistake, all this will bring much pressure to gold mine operators. Mr. Carl, if you hold mine stock, you will stand behind many others when time to sell!
In a dual, it is best to move two steps to right, before one does turn and fire, yes?
thank you
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:14
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:14
ForkLift__A ( Another ) ID#34194:
Will Iran stand for Saudi Arabia? Would they stand against the superpowers as equals in armaments? Would Kuwait be sensitive to such an alignment?
Mr. ForkLift,
I did not think we would ever see this. In the end, it may be
seen that the "gold Dinar" may one day be a common currency
for all the Gulf region. To this end, all will stand together!
We must watch this possible change, as it could be a challenge
to understand.
Thank You
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:30
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:1
Pete ( All, ANOTHER-Who is selling gold? ) ID#222231
Mr. Pete,
These money printers, they do much and fool noone. "Follow
in the footsteps of giants", as they take in real gold. Do
so and the future will show your wisdom from today!
thank you
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:36
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:44
Silverbaron ( ANOTHER ) ID#288295:
ANOTHER:In the past you have spoken of BIS gold purchases; can you tell us how much gold is owned by the BIS? Thank you.
Mr. Silverbaron, I will address a full post to this question. In a day or so. It is very interesting, this "Bank of Banks", yes?
thank you
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:00
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 21:55
Donald__A ( @Another ) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lesser countries with currencies of many zeroes do not operate
well. If there are no citizens who will save those currencies
then there can be no capital to construct factories, plant crops
or build housing for a comfortable life. They will remain beggars
forever. Worthless paper currencies are now used in every country
of the world. There is no safe place to save. Thus there can be
no capital and no capitalism. It is only a matter of time. What
will there be available to use the trade receipts for? Who will
need oil in such a world? Governments must return to gold or they
will perish. It is only a matter of time.
Mr. Donald_A,
I have seen your view often. In this present world, it is a correct
thought! But, perceptions of "capital" and what represents
"capital" do change. Today, you use paper as a real
value, and this debt currency is used to denominate the "worth
of your assets" for your future. It is to say, "my savings,
they equal the debt of my currency"! On this foundation,
your production of goods and services are built. I submit, that
without change, this economy will bring "beggars" into
your family! We will not find this fate, gold will become "new
money" and this money will buy much, with confidence. Yes,
It is a matter of time.
Thank You
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:17
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:07
Myrmidon ( @ ANOTHER on "REAL THINGS"
) ID#339212:
Copyright © 1998 Myrmidon/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"My question to you is this: The large anticipated rise of
gold will it not be relative to currencies? Even if gold is priced
relative to oil, even the price of oil is equated to currencies"?
Mr. Myrmidon,
The present digital money undervalues all real things in terms
of "gold real money". This process hides the "current
debt" that by default, encumbers all assets denominated in
"digital currency"! It is to say " your wealth
isn't as great as your currency says it is"!
For persons who "settle up" and convert to real things and gold, they have:
"taken two steps to the right, before the opponent has turned" In a Dual it is cheating, but in "life and death", it is a "good move", yes?
Thank you
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:27
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:18
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD ( HERR ANOTHER! ) ID#431263:
Copyright © 1998 GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"why gold mining operators who pay their miners in devalued local currencies and sell production in US dollars will be harmed when gold revalues currencies? Won't gold be king at that point?"
Mr. GCH,
I think the governments will change the rules, just before you
decide to sell. It is the way of life, yes? Is it not the "human
nature" to rob the bank with the most money?
Time will prove all things!
Thank You
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:46
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:25
Carl ( @Another ) ID#341189:
"How do you see a company like for example Barrick, which holds "gold in the ground" in several countries"? Will each country simply take their gold? If gold is to held for the public good in the future, how would oil be purchased by private companies?
Mr. Carl,
See my last reply for the GCH. I think Barrick is a large bank
and will require many good robbers! These government treasuries,
good minds they have, I have seen!
Gold for the public good will be in the form of "money in the hand". A Dinar and a Euro for oil? We will see?
Thank You
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 00:08
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:31
LIBERTY__A ( Gold mining stocks and their golden path! ) ID#263379:
Copyright © 1998 LIBERTY__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mr. Another,
"How do you envision gold availability at this level?
"can you be specific. Is this plan a viable one, and what caveats to you envision?
Mr. Liberty_A,
Sir, the plan is good, the question is, "how good is your
broker"? Noone can know how this world change will come about,
in specifics. The gold market may lock at $400? Or $4,000! When
the public perception does come to understand, many entities I
know of will not be buying "at the market" as your broker
will. These ones, they will be "above the market", "well
above the market"! Will you bid $1,000 when your broker screen
shows $475? I myself, as a country will be "there"!
You sir, will stand well behind most in line.
I tell my children, as you may
tell yours:
"when a thousand hungry lions fight for one scrap of food,
small dogs should hide with what's in their belly"
Thank You
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 00:18
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:38
JTF ( Only US gold mines confiscated? )
Mr. JTF,
Please see my
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 22:36
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Thank You
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 00:43
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:03
chas ( Another re currency flood ) ID#342282:
Mr. Chas, I do not understand your question?
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:32
BillD ( @ANOTHER ) ID#261269:
When would you expect these events to start moving the price of gold upwards?
Mr. BillD,
When the Cbs lose control. $360? Perhaps?
Date: Sat Apr 18 1998 23:48
Allen ( USA ) ( ANOTHER ) ID#255190:
Copyright © 1998 Allen ( USA ) /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Appearantly the percentage will be revealed in early May along with the naming of the president of the ECB. Do you expect that this will be when this begins to change?
The EURO is not done yet, much political fighting yet. It may change again, after May!
What do you see as the sign or evidence that the first phase has commenced ( digital currency units being exchanged for real things ) ? Similarly what do you see as the sign or evidence that the second phase of dumping the US Dollar has commenced?
See my post to BillD.
"I wonder what avenue these people will take to secure physical property since most commodity contracts are really just more paper?
A problem for persons that do todays work, tomorrow!
Do you see the 4080 delivery notices for gold at the COMEX as a sign of this type of effort to take delivery of physical metal? Since there is only enough gold to accomodate 1475 contracts what will happen to the rest???
I think, good minds will find a way to work this problem out. We will watch!
Thank You, Mr. Allen
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 14:14
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
ALL, I could not finish from last post. Have time and will continue now for a short time.
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 01:42
chas ( Another, rephrase of question ) ID#342282:
In reference to large volume oil producers' sales for currency ( paper ) , do they have to use this currency to buy the gold they prefer, or is there another method or methods to acquire the gold? The main question is, if there is another method"?
Mr Chas,
Yes. Many say, ME producers have no extra money for gold. They
are in debt and "just making it". I say, they have much
money, just not "your perception of money"! Many producers
do not pump at "all out rate", and worlds largest proven
reserves are in ground. In "gold market world", oil
is wealth, and oil is money! It is the "good trade"
to use "oil in ground" as backing to buy much paper
"commitment for gold"! Future "currency" price
of oil in ground is much unsure, but gold has world CB backing
to be of great value, always! CB say, "your oil at $15 to
$25, this is good as long as flowing", and say also "
your oil pumps shut off, what price gold to turn back on?"
You see, in real world, gold is money, oil is money. But paper currency, it is only a receipt for commerce.
Thank you
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 14:25
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 00:20
mozel ( @JTF ) ID#153102:
A man who dueled as ANOTHER proposes would have had no honor. He would have been shot down like a dog by the seconds. Without trustworthy, honorable seconds to enforce the law of dueling, there is not a duel, just a fight and shooting on sight.
Mr. Mozel,
You do understand the world, as it is, not as you are told! You
thoughts offer much.
In the Duel of Gold and Currencies, this time, no seconds will stand! I think, they Duel also. But, your perception of 'Honor" I agree with!
Thank You
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 15:09
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
REPLY:
Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 03:38
Drifter ( ANOTHER'S Thoughts ) ID#270447Date: Sun Apr 19 1998 14:18
OLD GOLD ( ) ID#238295:
There will be ample time for holders of gold bullion and gold shares to sell their holdings for huge profits. Drifter was right on target here. Let's worry about getting POG to $350 this year. We have a long way to go on the upside before confiscation and/or taxation becomes a realistic concern.
Mr. Drifter and Mr. Old Gold,
If you search the "thoughts" posts provided by Mr. Sharfin,
many of your conclusions a