By Steven C. Johnson – Analysis

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Central banks with trillions of dollars in reserves that are already stepping up euro and yen purchases will likely continue doing so in coming years, driven by worries over the stability of the greenback.

A record U.S. budget gap and the rise of dynamic developing economies like China suggest the dollar, down over 20 percent since 2002 on a trade-weighted basis, has further to fall.

Of course, the dollar comprises some two-thirds of global reserves and will remain dominant in most holdings, as attempts to dump it would destroy the value of central bank portfolios.

But with the speed of reserve accumulation increasing after a crisis-induced lull late last year, policy makers can choose to park more new cash in euros and yen [Ed. note: not to mention another (superior) reserve asset,] without having to sell existing dollar assets…

“I think 2009 will be remembered as a watershed moment for currencies,” said Neil Mellor, strategist at BNY Mellon, which has some $20 trillion in assets under custody. “I don’t think there will be an imminent move, but it is quite clear there’s a plan to shift reserves to a more balanced portfolio.”

…Central banks are also turning to gold, which Wells Fargo global economist Jay Bryson said may partly explain gold’s surge to record highs.

Taiwan, the fourth largest reserve holder, has said it is considering buying more gold, while China said in April it had increased gold holdings by 75 percent since 2003. This week, India bought 200 tones of gold from the IMF for $6.7 billion.

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