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ROCKET SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS
No Way Out
by Professor von Braun
December 28th, 1999
New years eve approaches and
it looks like the year of the internet boom will continue. Once
again we will have mutual fund year- end performance numbers dominate
the end of this quarter and all will be well.
The "bears" of the
stock market have indeed taken a severe beating over the last
twelve months. Being bearish is akin to touting the benefits of
being a vegetarian to a group of Eskimos. The reasoning may be correct but the
environment is hardly appropriate. Being bullish on gold has had
a not too dissimilar result.
So far, as we approach the much-touted
new millennium the bulls are winning, regardless of what the bears
are saying. It certainly seems that trying to get a read on this
market has confused a lot of people. More tops in the Dow and
the S&P have been called than one cares to remember.
The fact that something is not
quite right here, from a historical perspective is not in doubt.
investing based upon an understanding of economics, fundamentals,
cashflow, realistic expectations, supply and demand have gone
by the board.
It seems that either we need
to rewrite the handbook on investing (Disney should be able to
assist on this one) or the biggest economic downturn yet recorded
is just around the corner. But where is the corner? What event
could trigger a downturn in stock market's?
The bulls are celebrating, the
bears are complaining, dot com has become the catchword of the
day and the internet has taken over from all previous forms of
Alan Greenspan is seen (in certain
quarters) as lord of the financial universe and the US dollar
can do no wrong. Whatever event occurs that could be deemed a
threat to prosperity appears to be quickly remedied. Financial
collapse - what's that? Oh, a thing of the past.
Indeed, all very interesting.
Are the next two weeks going to be the quiet before the storm,
or will this bull market continue through to 2001? Where is the
corner? Or is it upwards and onwards from here?
There is of course the possibility
that "Y2K" may turn out to be more of a problem than
the pundits are predicting. If it's not then the rising stock
market will most likely continue.
The Prof can be contacted by email
Copyright by Professor von Braun.
All Rights Reserved. Reprinted at USAGOLD