Notable Quotable
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“This is the cave in which inflation hides … our Fiat Lifestyle, where we simply declare into existence the manner in which we deserve to live. Declared into existence exactly like everything else in the Fiat World. Pulled into the present from our future selves and our children. Without a second thought.”
Ben Hunt
Epsilon Theory
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Notable Quotable
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“I have found throughout my long investment career that an investor needs to make very few investment decisions in their lifetime. The key is to identify a long-term trend as it begins to emerge, invest in that trend, ride it until it ends and another trend replaces it. As an example, U.S. stocks in the 50s and 60s, commodities in the 70s, Japanese stocks in the 80s, tech stocks in the 90s, commodities in the 2000s, and tech and paper assets in the 2010s. The next trend that is emerging will favor things or hard assets. This is what the gold markets are telegraphing now. This trend will be inflationary driven by resource shortages and a tsunami of money printing.” – James Puplava, Financial Sense, September 2020
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Notable Quotable
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“One of the signs that you have entered into a mania phase is when people have trouble absorbing non-conforming information. ‘Confirmation bias’ is a psychological behavior where individuals disregard any information which conflicts with their current beliefs. While that bias has always been problematic for investors, in recent years, as individuals lock themselves inside their ‘social media echo chambers,’ it has worsened.”
Lance Roberts
Real Investment Advice
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Notable Quotable
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“I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.”
John Maynard Keynes
1946
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Notable Quotable
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“We live in a technological golden age but in a monetary and fiscal dark age. While physicists discover the so-called God particle, governments print and borrow by the trillions. Science and technology may hurtle forward, but money and banking race backward.”
James Grant
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
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Notable Quotable
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“We have a distinctive philosophy around gold. We believe gold has unique risk/reward characteristics that enable it to help preserve real value over the long term. We use gold as a potential hedge and do not speculate on its price over the next six to 12 months. We believe it is not possible to forecast the price of gold or, for that matter, the price of other investment assets. This, in fact, is why we have a potential hedge …”
Thomas Kertsos
First Eagle Investment Management
Gold Hub interview
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Notable Quotable
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“The ancient Egyptians believed their gods had shimmering skin made from gold. While the Aztec word for gold, teocuitlatl, literally translates as ‘excrement of the gods’. From ancient Rome to the California gold rush, this dense shimmering metal has been immutably connected with divine quality and the sense of opportunity. The reason for this is simple: gold is the most special element of them all.”
James Dacey
Physics World
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Notable Quotable
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“One of the most important warnings offered by firefighters is simple: get out early. In the face of wildfires, some homeowners get the idea of staying in their homes and riding it out. As one firefighter warned, ‘The point is to go.’ But if you don’t, it’s better to stay than to panic and run in the midst of a firestorm of smoke and embers. It’s not the fire that gets you. It’s the heat. Even before the flames reach the house, it can be fatal to stand outside trying to protect what you have (h/t John Galvin). Similarly, our ‘Exit Rule for Bubbles’ is straightforward: You only get out if you panic before everyone else does. You have to decide whether to look like an idiot before the crash, or look like an idiot after it.”
John Hussman
Hussman Funds
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Notable Quotable
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“We live in a technological golden age but in a monetary and fiscal dark age. While physicists discover the so-called God particle, governments print and borrow by the trillions. Science and technology may hurtle forward, but money and banking race backward.”
James Grant
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
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Notable Quotable
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“We’re in very uncharted waters. Nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing now for a very extended period without some kind of trouble. We’re very near the edge of playing with fire.”
Charlie Munger
Berkshire Hathaway
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Notable Quotable
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“Gold can be best viewed as financial insurance. If you believe that you should own insurance, then you should also own gold. In terms of investment performance, gold will do best during times of international financial stress. In the past, the price of gold has moved exponentially higher during these periods as demand for the ultimate safe haven goes viral.”
Eric Lytikainen
Real Investment Advice
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Notable Quotable
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“Deflation is a threat posed by a critical breakdown of the financial system. Slow growth and recurrent recessions without systemic financial disturbances, even the big recessions of 1975 and 1982, have not posed such a risk. The real danger comes from encouraging or inadvertently tolerating rising inflation and its close cousin of extreme speculation and risk taking, in effect standing by while bubbles and excesses threaten financial markets. Ironically, the ‘easy money,’ striving for a ‘little inflation’ as a means of forestalling deflation, could, in the end, be what brings it about. That is the basic lesson for monetary policy. It demands emphasis on price stability and prudent oversight of the financial system. Both of those requirements inexorably lead to the responsibilities of a central bank.”
Paul Volcker
Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government
(2018)
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Notable Quotable
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“The current combination of monetary debasement, populism and social unrest is neither a new phenomenon nor a coincidence. The late Roman empire shaved silver coins as it disintegrated; Henry VIII replaced silver coins with copper to pay for wars against France and Scotland; the British empire allowed double-digit inflation to erode bondholders’ wealth following the War of Independence; the Weimar Republic precipitated an inflation spiral. Comparing these examples to QE may sound extreme. Yet the biggest debasement in history may be the one we are experiencing now under the form of a $20tn central bank experiment, which is de facto depreciating money by boosting the price of all assets it can buy.”
Alberto Gallo
Algebris Investments
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Notable Quotable
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“. . .[I]f you go down the line of currencies around the world, you don’t find many attractive opportunities. And that’s why I say if the world were to give up on dollars and give up on euros, they’d probably go back to the old standby, which is gold. And I don’t mean by gold, government run gold standard, like we had in the late 19th century. That’s politically impossible. Governments will never be willing to subordinate their policies to the constraints of a hard commodity ever again… So how could gold make a revival as a sort of international money? Well, we don’t actually need a government run gold standard anymore…since people have always had confidence in gold as a long-term store of value, there’s no reason why it couldn’t play that role.”
Benn Steil
Director of International Economics
Council on Foreign Relations
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Notable Quotable
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“The question is whether there’s enough gold to back the currency reserves. The answer is for the price of gold to go higher, perhaps much higher.… Just wait until they’re forced to loosen into an inflationary spike to support the Treasury. At that point, it’s best to have some gold. That’s what grandpa Ben taught me.” – David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital (US News report)
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Notable Quotable
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“Perhaps we slow investors should adopt a mascot. I suggest the sloth. Hanging upside-down, moving at a few metres a minute, is much like trading infrequently: it saves the costs of doing things more quickly. Sloths take almost two months fully to digest each meal — which is handy, given that they eat mildly toxic leaves that would poison them if absorbed too quickly. Investors are reminded, all too often, that the financial world is lush with toxic get-rich quick products. A slower approach to finance makes market movements a great deal more digestible.”
Tim Hartford
Financial Times/The Undercover Economist
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Notable Quotable
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“I’m no insect. Gold is a great way to make a lot of money.”
Thomas Kaplan
Electrum Group
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Notable Quotable
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“Ironically, the beggar-thy-neighbor implications of competitive devaluations will almost certainly incite a response from countries who may not originally even have needed to resort to currency debasement in the first place, raising the potential for full blown currency war. How should one position for such an endgame? As is probably evident, any nominal instrument will be devalued in real terms, so the solution is to hold an asset that maintains its real value – an asset that cannot be printed.”
Rick Rieder
BlackRock Funds
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Notable Quotable
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“Gold has your back when central bankers don’t.“
Jay Martin
Cambridge House International
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Notable Quotable
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“Ask anyone in Germany what they associate with gold and, more often than not, they will say that it is synonymous with enduring value and economic prosperity. Ask us at the Bundesbank what our gold holdings mean for us and we will tell you that, first and foremost, they make up a very large share of Germany’s reserve assets … [and they] are a major anchor underpinning confidence in the intrinsic value of the Bundesbank’s balance sheet. The Bundesbank produced this publication to give a detailed account, the first of its kind, of how gold has grown in importance over the course of history, first as medium of payment, later as the bedrock of stability for the international monetary system.”
Jens Wiedmann
Former President, Bundesbank
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