Monthly Archives: July 2023

Defective Fed policy ensures inflation’s revival

ZeroHedge-Bloomberg/Simon White/7-28-2023

graphic of the wonderful Wizard of Oz as depicted by Frank Baum“Federal Reserve rate hikes have had minimal disinflationary impact in this cycle, opening the door to a re-acceleration in inflation. At first glance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has little in common with the Wizard of Oz. But in one respect he may: pulling levers that do nothing.”

USAGOLD note: Yet another under-the-radar analysis predicting more inflation down the road – second coming……

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

USAGOLD
Quality service & portfolio guidance since 1973

photo of stacks of gold coins American Eagles and Sourth African Krugerrands

USAGOLD ranks among the most reputable gold companies in the United States. Founded in the 1970s and still family-owned, it is one of the gold industry’s oldest and most respected names. The firm’s unblemished, zero-complaints record and solid reviews with the Better Business Bureau testify to the exceptional customer service and professional excellence which sets it apart from the competition.

USAGOLD specializes in gold and silver coins and bullion delivered to our client’s safekeeping. For over 49 years, we have resolutely advocated owning precious metals for asset preservation purposes rather than speculation. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold and silver owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find our firm a kindred spirit.

____________________________________________________________

Interested in gold but struggling to find the right firm?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

ORDER DESK
1-800-869-5115 x100 • • • orderdesk@usagold.com • • • ONLINE ORDER DESK-24/7

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

Share
Posted in ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Everyone thinks the Fed’s rate hike next week will be the final one — except the Fed

MarketWatch/Greg Robb/7-21-2023

Fed chairman powell angers questions at The Economic Club“Wall Street economists seem convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week and that this increase will turn out to be the final hike of this cycle. But they also don’t expect to hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell say so, at least not yet.”

USAGOLD note: Several analysts have come forward over the past month to state their belief that inflation is down but not out – in a lull rather than full remission. If that proves to be the case, the Fed could be chasing the inflation rate for many months to come.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

The collapse of the risk-free delusion: Implications for the $133 trillion bond market

International Man/Nick Giambruno/July 2023

cartoon of two happy travelers driving over cliff in car“Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history? The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the 30-year Treasury collapsed over 39%. Many other bonds did even worse.”

USAGOLD note: Giambruno warns that “It may be tempting to think the worst is over for bonds – it’s not. As you’ll see, the pain for bondholders is just starting.” The result he says will be a mass movement over time to reliable stores of value.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Short and Sweet
“Bear markets are sneaky beasts. . .”

photo of a bear peaking out from behind a tree“Bear markets are sneaky beasts and they like to do their damage as secretly and as unobtrusively as possible. I hate to say it but somewhere ahead, the bears going to get it all together and the innocent little stream is going to turn into a waterfall. What can you do about it? Stay out of the market? Protect yourself by remaining in pure wealth, gold. For thousands of years, silver and gold have been treated as pure wealth. As the standard measures of wealth (stocks and bonds) have deteriorated, veteran investors have forgone profits and moved their assets into pure wealth.” – Richard Russell, King World News, 2016

 King World News called the late, great Richard Russell – who regaled us with his wisdom in the Dow Theory Letter for nearly half a century – “the greatest financial writer in history.” We can only guess what Russell would have had to say about the current state of affairs, but the quote above provides a clue.  Never predictable in his opinions, he was rock solid on one axiom throughout his career – the necessity and transcendence of gold as a permanent component of the well-balanced investment portfolio. As he said, so often, it helped him sleep at night.


Looking to prevent the beastly bear from sneaking up on your portfolio?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

ORDER DESK

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

Share
Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

‘Something very strange’ explains why a US recession has been delayed

Yahoo!Finance/Matthew Fox/7-20-2023

graphic image expressing surprise-incredulity“It turns out that during the period of near-zero interest rates, especially leading up to the pandemic and during the pandemic, corporations took advantage and refinanced a ton of their liabilities into long-term, low-rate, fixed debt.”

USAGOLD note: How Wall Street analysts, with an ocean of data sources available to them, missed this important trend is equally strange.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Details in multiple reports are telegraphing inflation will become a big issue in months ahead

Zero-Hedge-Bloomberg/Alyce Anders/7-28-2023

chalboard showing inflation pattern as chart with symbols for various currencies“With the labor market strong and the consumer ebullient, price increases are likely to continue to be effortless. S&P Global’s preliminary survey for July noted its output price index has been a reliable leading indicator of CPI — anticipating the easing of US CPI to 3% in June. But its recent fluctuation suggests further declines in CPI below 3% may prove tricky as firms seek to pass through higher costs and interest payments to customers.”

USAGOLD note: The current situation has the feel of the run-up to the inflation surge in 2020. Then purchasing managers were warning of price increases before the general public became aware of the burgeoning problem.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Daily Gold Market Report

Gold off to a slow start to begin the week
Morris finds relevance in central banks buying gold ‘out of choice’ not official dictate

(USAGOLD – 7/31/2023) – Gold is off to a slow start to begin the week in sluggish summertime trading. It is level at $1961.50. Silver is up 5¢ at $24.46. On the month, gold is up 2.6% and silver is up a notable 7.1%. Charlie Morris, the UK-based financial analyst, offers an interesting take on the strong demand for gold among central banks.

“The remarkable thing,” says Charlie Morris in his most recent Atlas Pulse newsletter, “is that the gold standard withered in the 1970s, and other than the recent rumors surrounding a gold-backed BRICS currency, there has been no official need for central banks to own gold. They do so out of choice. It is remarkable how an informal gold standard of sorts is returning despite it being formally vanquished half a century ago. It means that gold is once again relevant despite that not being written down in the statute books.”

Gold and silver price performances
(%, July 2023)
Overlay chaart showing gold and silver price performances for July
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com • • • Click to enlarge

Share
Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Deep recession to force full percentage-point fed cut Double Line warns

Bloomberg/Anchalee Worrachate/7-25-2023

graphic image-icon of bear stepping through round portal“Markets should brace for a deep US recession that warrants a dramatic one percentage-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, warned DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Sherman.”

USAGOLD note: Sherman thinks that the Fed will be slow to act in the face of a hard recession and then be forced to “unleash the biggest cut since the pandemic struck.” We should add that Doubletree’s Jeff Gundlach consistently has been among the most bearish Wall Street commentators.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Notable Quotable

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”

Ernest Hemingway
 Notes on the Next War: A Serious Topical Letter 
Esquire magazine
September 1935

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Share
Posted in Notable Quotable, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

_______________________________________________________________


To end right, start right.

Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.

Choose
USAGOLD
Coins & bullion since 1973

_______________________________________________________________

Share
Posted in Announcements, ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Gold could hit record high of $2,500, says WisdomTree

TrustNet/Editor/7-18-2023

graphic image of gold bars in herringbone design rotated vertically

 

“Gold is on track to hit a new record high of $2,225 per ounce by this time next year, according to Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree. However, if things go right, the precious metal may shoot even higher to $2,500 per ounce.”

USAGOLD note: Wisdom Tree sees a convergence of influences taking gold to all-time highs.

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

A $500 billion corporate-debt storm builds over global economy

Bloomberg/Jeremy Hill and Lucca De Paoli/7-18-2023

graphic illustration of a row of dominoes with a red dominoe ready to fall into the restgraphic image of a book and reading glasses A Good Weekend Read“It feels different than prior cycles. You’re going to see a lot of defaults.” – Richard Cooper, Cleary Gottlieb

USAGOLD note: The possibility of a full domino effect cannot be ruled out, in our view, and it could begin anywhere without warning.

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Short and Sweet
Worry about the return ‘of’ your money, not just the return ‘on’ it

photograph of a bag of gold coins
There is an old saying among veteran investors to worry not just about the return on your money but the return of your money. In the wealth game, emphasize defense when you need to, offense when it makes sense. At all times, remain diversified. And by that, we mean real diversification in the form of physical gold and silver coins and/or bullion outside the current fiat money system – not just an assortment of stocks and bonds denominated in the domestic currency. Keep in mind – if the currency erodes in value, the underlying value of those assets erodes along with it. A proper, genuine diversification addresses that problem now and in the future.


Are you ready to deploy genuine diversification in your portfolio?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

ORDER DESK:

1-800-869-5115 x100• • • [email protected] • • • ONLINE ORDER DESK-24/7

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

Share
Posted in Short and Sweet, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

What happened in Beijing? Here’s two theories on why the dollar dropped after Yellen’s visit

MarketWatch/Steve Goldstein/7-19-2023

“Kevin Muir, a former institutional trader that blogs at The Macro Tourist, said China didn’t like what they heard from Yellen so the country decided to send a message. ‘China has $3.2 trillion in FX reserves. Their biggest position will be the U.S. dollar and don’t think they will be shy about using it,’ he says.”

USAGOLD note: A long-held market fear resurfaces – China weaponizing its dollar reserves. It can sell or swap for gold or other currencies. It can continue to refrain from buying U.S. Treasures.

China US dollar reserves
bar chart showing China's foreign exchange reserves 2016 to present
Chart courtesy of Trading Economics

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Daily Gold Market Report

Gold takes positive turn as Japan signals reversal of dovish monetary policy

‘The desire for gold is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race.’
Gerald Loeb, Wall Street trader

(USAGOLD – 7/28/2023) – Gold took a positive turn this morning as Japan signaled it might begin reversing its dovish monetary policy – a move that surprised markets and sent the Japanese yen sharply higher in overseas markets. Gold is up $10 at $1959. Silver is up 19¢ at $29.39. “If inflation has indeed returned to Japan, which we believe it has,” says State Street’s Michael Metcalf, “the BoJ will find itself needing to raise rates just as hopes for interest rate cuts rise elsewhere. This should be a medium-term positive for the JPY [Japanese yen], which remains deeply undervalued.”

We came across this passage from a Dominic Frisby essay earlier this week and thought it worth passing along:

“The experience of beauty, whether derived from nature, art, music or even mathematics, correlates with activity in the emotional brain, the medial orbitofrontal cortex. Beauty has long been associated by philosophers with truth and purity – also qualities commonly associated with gold. Our instinct for gold and the emotions it inspires from beauty to desire are basic. There has not been a culture in history that did not appreciate the value of gold. It is a primal instinct. ‘The desire for gold,’ said Wall Street trader Gerald Loeb, ‘is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race.’” [Source: MoneyWeek]

Share
Posted in Daily Market Report, dailyquotes, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Notable Quotable

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

“We sometimes forget that central banking, as we know it today, is, in fact, largely an invention of the past hundred years or so, even though a few central banks can trace their ancestry back to the early nineteenth century or before. It is a sobering fact that the prominence of central banks in this century has coincided with a general tendency towards more inflation, not less. By and large, if the overriding objective is price stability, we did better with the nineteenth-century gold standard and passive central banks, with currency boards, or even with ‘free banking.’ The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy.” – Paul Volcker, (From Deane and Pringle’s The Central Banks, 1995)

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Share
Posted in Notable Quotable, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Image of the word 'Gold' with elaborate gold crownThe Investment of Kings and the King of Investments

From the small investor just starting out to the high-net-worth individual hedging a multi-million dollar portfolio, we have helped many thousands add precious metals to their holdings in our nearly 50 years in the gold business – safely, economically and with the investor’s goals in mind.

No matter the size of your investment kingdom, we can help!

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Interested in gold but struggling to find the right firm?
DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE

ORDER DESK

Reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973

Share
Posted in Announcements, ClientInsights, Today's top gold news and opinion | Tagged |

Gold should be dead, but somehow it’s still adding value

MarketWatch/Brett Arends/7-15-2023

graphic of a satisfied investor sitting atop a pile of gold barsThe first thing is that over the past century including some gold in your portfolio alongside stocks and bonds has genuinely added value. It has produced higher average returns, less volatility and fewer of those disastrous ‘lost decades’ where your portfolio ended up whistling Dixie.”

USAGOLD note: Arends has never been an ardent supporter of gold, but in this article he reluctantly makes concessions.… To make a long story short, a portfolio that includes a 10% gold diversification over the long run does better than one that doesn’t. How would a 20% diversification look?

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Goldman chief economist cuts recession probability to 20%, dismisses yield-curve inversion

MarketWatch/Steve Goldstein/7-18-2023

cartoon illustration of steady winds the race rabbit vs wolf“Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, trimmed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% — well below the 54% median among forecasters who participated in the last Wall Street Journey survey.”

USAGOLD note: Hatzius, in fact, believes the economy is going to grow “albeit below trend pace.”

 

Share
Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |