Headed for the tail

Hussman Funds/John Hussman/2-22-2023

“I intentionally use the phrase ‘run-of-the-mill’ to describe potential market losses of -30%, -55%, and -60%, because none of these estimates can be considered ‘worst case scenarios.”’ Historically, market cycles typically trough at the point where prospective S&P 500 total returns are restored to the greater of a 10% nominal return or 2% above Treasury bonds, so I lean toward expecting the -60% outcome. Nothing in our discipline relies on that outcome. Still, I believe it is not only possible but likely.”

USAGOLD note: Hussman’s latest …… As reflected in the quote above, he ranks among the most bearish forecasters.…… “Still, the deferral of consequences,” he writes, “is very different from the absence of consequences. My concern is for investors that may discover that the hard way.”