Tensions between Russia and Ukraine aren’t fully priced into commodities

MarketWatch/Myra Saefong/1-14-2022

“A potential conflict could raise the possibility of disruptions to commodity flows, says Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. The U.S. and European Union may also react in the event of a conflict, leading to sanctions against Russia that could have an ‘impact on the supply of a number of commodities to world markets,’ he says — and none of these factors are priced into the market.”

USAGOLD note: Geopolitical concerns, of late, have taken a back seat to the more pressing build-up of inflation, but inflation’s cause would be well-served by a military confrontation in Ukraine, according to MarketWatch’s Myra Saefong. In particular, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine would impact natural gas, wheat, and corn, she writes. As it is commodity prices, as reflected in the CRB Index, are up 40% over the past twelve months.

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com