Two contrasting views on the possibility of an Evergrande driven contagion

Repost from 9-27-2021

China’s Evergrande moment is looking more LTCM than Minsky
John Authers/Bloomberg/9-19-2021

“For the short term, therefore, this implies a nasty and messy market, but not an all-out implosion.”

An urgent update on China’s Black Swan
Graham Summers/GainsPains&Capital/9-23-2021

“At the end of the day, whether Evergrande pays its bond or not today is just one paragraph in the book of bad debts that are floating around the financial system.”

Line chart showing Evergrande stock performance 2010 to present
Chart courtesy of

USAGOLD note: A drop of almost 92% in a stock’s value over the course of four years is not an expression of confidence on the part of global investors. It is interesting to note that the top underwriter of Evergrande bonds, Credit Suisse, announced late last week that it has completely liquidated its holdings in the real estate group.

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