Short and Sweet

Howe says this Fourth Turning will go to 2030

graphic image of walk in a deep, fearful wood

“To be clear, the road ahead for America will be rough,” writes Neil Howe, author of the modern classic, The Fourth Turning (1997), in a recent analysis posted at Hedgeye. “But I take comfort in the idea that history cycles back and that the past offers us a guide to what we can expect in the future. Like Nature’s four seasons, the cycles of history follow a natural rhythm or pattern. Make no mistake. Winter is coming. How mild or harsh it will be is anyone’s guess, but the basic progression is as natural as counting down the days, weeks, and months until Spring.”

For those who, like me, buy into Howe’s notion of a Fourth Turning, the problem is to get to the other side of the woods with our assets reasonably intact. “Currently, this period began in 2008,” he points out, “with the Global Financial Crisis and the deepening of the War on Terror, and will extend to around 2030. If the past is any prelude to what is to come, as we contend, consider the prior Fourth Turning which was kicked off by the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II.” Eventually, he says, we will find our way to a first turning – a time of renewal – but we will be sorely tested before we get there. The precious metals have offered solid protection through the first half of the Fourth Turning. Gold is up 145% since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 – the event most analysts associate with the start of the crisis. Silver is up 165%. In both instances, the greatest price acceleration occurred in the early years of the crisis.

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