The next decade could be even worse

The Atlantic/Graeme Wood/December 2020

“The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of ‘megahistories,’ such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari.”

USAGOLD note:  This lengthy article profiles the thinking of Peter Turchin, an historian who believes history is predictable through the application of mathematical models. He says we are guaranteed five hellish years but more likely a decade of bad news. ‘That sickening crunch you now hear –” writes Wood, “steel twisting, rivets popping – is the sound of the ship hitting the iceberg.” All in all, not a very encouraging read ……

Repost from 12-3-2020

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