Monthly Archives: October 2019

Treasury prepares another debt deluge as Fed wades into market

Bloomberg/Emily Barrett/10-28-2019

Image of old-fashioned printing press“It [U.S. Treasury Department] needn’t agonize just yet, however. For the next few months the Federal Reserve will be scooping bills out of the market — part of its effort to calm the repo market — about as fast as the government can pour them in.”

USAGOLD note:  We used to call it printing money. Then we called it monetizing the debt. After that, we called it quantitative easing. Now the Fed calls it providing liquidity for a stretched repo market.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

If silver is the new gold, now is a good time to buy

Barron’s/Myra Saefong/10-25-2019

American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins“‘If you are bullish on gold’s future prospects, silver is going to provide you with upside leverage with relatively low risks at these price levels,’ says Peter Spina, president of silver news and analysis provider SilverSeek.com. ‘The risk-to-reward appeal in silver is one of the best opportunities in a decade.’”

USAGOLD note:  Over the past few years, we have seen gold investors increasingly adding silver to their holdings. Investors interested in larger positions in many cases are opting for our safe storage program which addresses the logistical (weight) problems associated with silver ownership.


Account Form – Precious Metals Storage Account

Please call or email if you have any questions.
1-800-869-5115 Ext#100
orderdesk@usagold.com

Posted in Gold and Silver Price Predictions from Prominent Players, Today's top gold news and opinion |

The gold standard: what is behind bullion’s best run in years?

MiningJournal/Julian Turner/10-21-2019

Image of green flag flapping in wind“In the current rally investment demand has been at the fore and this has been driven by expectation of major monetary easing by various central banks (particularly the Fed) leading to plummeting bond yields. This has led to an explosion in negative yielding debt, to over $17 trillion, which has turned on its head a traditional drawback of investing in gold – namely that it has no yield.”

USAGOLD note:  This article features the thinking of Capital Economics’ Ross Strachan (quoted above from that article).


Repost from 10-25-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold is God’s money, says author Kiyosaki

Bloomberg/Video interview of Robert Kiyosaki/10-21-2019

Ed Stein cartoon of gold in wall sconce In case of economic uncertainty break glass

“My foundation is gold. . .”

USAGOLD note:  Kiyosaki is a man after our own heart – one who believes in gold as a means to long-term asset preservation.


Repost from 10-25-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Households in India pile up 24,000 tonnes of gold

Financial Express/Banikinkar Pattanayak

photo of old india gold coin“Households in India may have piled up around 24,000-25,000 tonnes of gold, remaining the world’s largest holders of the precious metal, Somasundaram PR, managing director (India) of the London-headquartered World Gold Council (WGC), has told FE. At Friday’s international price, the value of the holdings (25,000 tonne) would be as much as $1,135 billion, or equivalent of more than 40% of India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in FY19.”

USAGOLD note:  To give you an idea just how much gold the people of India own in the overall scheme of things, the total amount of gold held by governments and central banks globally is 33,976 tonnes, according to World Gold Council statistics.


Repost from 5-20-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Russia’s huge gold stash is worth more than $100 billion

Bloomberg/Yuliya Fedorinova and Anna Andrianova

Graphic of Russian double eagle royal coat of arms“The country quadrupled gold reserves in the past decade as it diversified away from U.S. assets, a move that has paid off recently as haven demand sent prices to a six-year high. In the past year, the value of the nation’s gold jumped 42% to $109.5 billion and the metal now makes up the biggest share of Russia’s total reserves since 2000.”

USAGOLD note:  Russia’s reserve gains via appreciation of the precious metal will not be lost on a whole host of other countries looking to move in the same direction. This is an interesting article. . . .


Repost from 9-9-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Worries grow over the Fed’s efforts to fix funding issues: ‘This is all likely to get much worse’

CNBC/Jeff Cox/10-22-2019

Image of Fed chairman Powell delivering speech“Wall Street is getting worried that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to control short-term borrowing rates have run into some potholes, with more danger ahead.”

USAGOLD note:  This article tells how the Fed and financial markets could get blind-sided – particularly in December as we near year’s end.


Repost from 10-23-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Long-term negative rates have ‘adverse consequences’ we don’t fully understand, says Jamie Dimon

CNBC/Yen Nee Lee/10-22-2019

“Dimon joins the ranks of an increasing number of business executives and economists speaking up against adopting such a policy for long, as central banks around the world try to boost growth by continuing to slash interest rates, some into negative territory.”

USAGOLD note:  Dimon echoes concerns expressed by other bankers and institutional money managers, particularly in Europe where the effects are already a reality. “Negative interest rates are crazy,” says former Credit Suisse CEO Oswald Grueber. “That means money is not worth anything anymore.”


Repost from 10-22-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Whatever it takes to never give up

Credit Bubble Bulletin/Doug Noland/10-26-2019

image of FED, ECB spelled out in Scrabble letters with stack of kilo gold bars in background“What will be Draghi’s legacy? How will history view his stewardship over eurozone monetary policy? The years sure pass by. I still ponder how history will judge Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. At this point, with securities prices (equities and bonds) basically at all-time highs, contemporary monetary policy – and its major architects – are held in high regard. I don’t expect this to remain the case following the next crisis.”

USAGOLD note:  Noland provides a detailed assessment of the Draghi years at the ECB and  weighs what might be down the road for both the ECB under Christine Lagarde and the Fed under Jerome Powell (at least for now). He raises again an older theme: “Consequences of unprecedented monetary stimulus are now used as justification for only more outrageous monetary stimulus.”

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Federal Reserve faces decision whether to signal pause to rate cuts

Financial Times/James Politi, Colby Smith and Jennifer Alban/10-27-2019

Photo of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifying before Congress“The Federal Reserve faces the thorny decision of whether to signal an interruption to its monetary easing after it delivers what is widely expected to be a third consecutive cut to its main interest rate this week.”

USAGOLD note:  Here we go. . . another Fed week for the markets to weather.  Though another cut is widely anticipated, how the Fed will position itself for the future is an unknown quantity.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold specs lift bullish bets after recent sharp declines

Through Tuesday, Octobrer 22, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.

Gold COT report October 22, 2019

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 259,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly gain of 6,105 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 253,027 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 3,547 contracts (to a weekly total of 322,917 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -2,558 contracts for the week (to a total of 63,785 contracts).

Large precious metals speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 259,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly gain of 6,105 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 253,027 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 3,547 contracts (to a weekly total of 322,917 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -2,558 contracts for the week (to a total of 63,785 contracts).

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -295,357 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -7,082 contracts from the total net of -288,275 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1487.50 which was a boost of $4.00 from the previous close of $1483.50, according to unofficial market data.


Silver specs add to bullish bets 2nd time in 3 weeks

Silver COT report October 22, 2019

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 46,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly change of 2,754 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,989 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) ascending by 4,659 contracts (to a weekly total of 89,747 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by just 1,905 contracts for the week (to a total of 43,004 contracts).

Silver speculators raised their bullish bets for the second time in the past three weeks following a streak of four straight down weeks (September 10th through October 1st). The silver position continues to be in a fairly strong standing with the net contract level above +45,000 contracts. Overall, the silver net position has now been above the +40,000 contract level for ten straight weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -72,023 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -1,536 contracts from the total net of -70,487 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1750.0 which was an uptick of $11.6 from the previous close of $1738.4, according to unofficial market data.


Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets

US Dollar Index COT report October 22, 2019

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators continued to decrease their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 31,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly decline of -6,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,436 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) sinking by -3,455 contracts (to a weekly total of 40,833 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a rise by 2,771 contracts on the week (to a total of 9,623 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators reduced their bullish bets for a third straight week and by a total of -11,818 contracts over that time-frame. Previously, the dollar bets had hit a 127-week bullish high on October 1st above the +43,000 net contract level before the recent cool off. Overall, the dollar position has now been in bullish territory for seventy-six straight weeks, dating back to May of 2018.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––__________–––––_______––
Posted in COT Reports |

Global banks, funds call for more capital from derivatives clearinghouses

Reuters/David Henry/10-24-2019

“Four global banks and five big fund managers called on international regulators on Thursday to require for-profit derivatives clearinghouses to put up more of their own capital to protect against cascading losses that could rock the world financial system.”

USAGOLD note:  The subject of derivatives does not come up often these days as the financial system has not had a crisis in many years.  It is only when the wolf is at the door that people begin to worry about the state of the derivatives market. Thus, it is more than mildly interesting that this group of prominent financial institutions would raise the alarm now.  Are there vulnerabilities of which these major players might be aware to which the market as a whole is blind?

Ed Stein cartoon showing scope of derivatives problem

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Trump’s China policy

Image of unisphere globeFinancial Times Podcast/Gideon Rachman interview of Nadia Schadlow/10-22-2019

“Nadia Schadlow [is] widely regarded as the intellectual architect of Trump’s foreign policy.”

USAGOLD note: More weekend reflection. . . .Schadlow offers an overview and defense of how the United States is positioning itself strategically during the Trump years.

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Sprott CEO says gold pullback not surprising, sees trouble ahead for the economy

Bloomberg/Video Interview

USAGOLD note:  Sprott’s Peter Grosskpopf says “gold is an insurance asset” and more at the link above.


Repost from 10-18-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Dalio’s fear of the next downturn is likely understated

Real Investment Advice/Lance Roberts

Image of two tickets to board the Titanic“While the markets are celebrating the very clear confirmation that the ‘Fed Put’ is alive and well, it should be remembered these ‘emergency measures’ are coming at a time when we are told the economy is booming.”

USAGOLD note:  That single sentence from Lance Robert’s latest offers much food for thought.  For some reason, the legend of the ‘unsinkable’ Titanic came to mind when I read those words.  One member of the crew was heard to say to a passenger as she boarded, “God himself could not sink this ship.”

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Dimon says money-market turmoil last month risks morphing into a crisis if Fed falters

MarketWatch/Greg Robb/10-18-2019

Red warning flag flapping in breeze“JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday that the turmoil in the plumbing of the financial system last month may be precursor of a bigger crisis if the Federal Reserve doesn’t learn from the experience.”

USAGOLD note:  That temporary, overnight problem from a few weeks ago has already morphed into something more considerable on several levels.  Dimon just upped the ante.


Repost from 10-20-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Euro-area economy remains close to stagnation in October

Bloomberg/Yuko/Takeo/10-24-2019

Scrabble pieces spelling out FED and ECB as on scrabble board“The euro-area economy stayed at the brink of contraction as manufacturing shrank for a ninth month.”

USAGOLD note: More evidence supporting the suggestion from Russell Napier passed along in yesterday’s DMR that markets will switch from focusing on more QE to the realization that it simply has not worked. (Please scroll down the page for yesterday’s DMR.)

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Dollar’s longest slump since January may deepen, Scotia says

Bloomberg/Vivien Lou Chen

“The dollar’s three-week slump may turn into further weakness through early next year, as potential progress on U.S.-China trade talks and Brexit along with softer domestic economic data undermine the currency’s haven status, said Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne.”

USAGOLD note:  This surprise development in the dollar comes as the Fed drops rates, pumps liquidity into the repo market, and the money supply (as reported here recently) is on the rise.  Now, Scotia tells us, the trend might extend into the new year possibly impacting the price of gold. More immediately below. . . . . .

Chart showing steep dollar decline since late October 2019

Chart courtesy of TradingView


Repost from 10-2-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

A buying opportunity in precious metals

ProAurum/Claudio Grass

Image of gold chess pieces knight and pawn“Of course, nothing could be further from the truth. All the very serious concerns and the fundamental reasons that caused the metals to rise so aggressively in recent months are not only still intact, but they have grown, and spread, and find even more solid footing every time new data comes out of the Eurozone and the US.”

USAGOLD note: A solidly laid out argument from Swiss analyst, Claudio Grass. . . . .


Repost from 10-19-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Shanghai Gold Exchange has become the largest physical gold exchange in the world

SMM News

Image of China panda gold coin - mother and cub“Established less than 20 years ago, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has become the world’s largest physical gold exchange. Debbie Carlson (Debbie Carlson), senior editor of the firm, said in an article on Wednesday that China had become one of the world’s largest gold markets after New York and London, with a growing number of international investors looking to enter the Chinese market.”

USAGOLD note:  The gold market is alive and well in Shanghai. This article provides a quick update.


Repost from 10-17-2019

Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |