Gold specs lift bullish bets after last week’s sharp decline

Through Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators added to their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 275,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 8th. This was a weekly change of 6,570 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,993 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 11,583 contracts (to a weekly total of 334,383 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by a lesser amount of 5,013 contracts for the week (to a total of 58,820 contracts).

Gold speculators advanced their bullish bets this week following a sharp selloff last week that decreased the bullish position by over -40,000 net contracts. The small rebound this week is the third time bets have gained in the past four weeks.

Overall, the gold position has now risen in fourteen out of the past nineteen weeks, going from a total of +86,688 contracts in late May to a total of +275,563 contracts this week.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -310,942 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -7,254 contracts from the total net of -303,688 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1503.90 which was an increase of $14.90 from the previous close of $1489.00, according to unofficial market data.


Silver specs edge bullish bets higher after 4 down weeks

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators slightly advanced their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 50,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 8th. This was a weekly rise of 939 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,815 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 125 contracts (to a weekly total of 90,092 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by -814 contracts for the week (to a total of 39,338 contracts).

Silver speculators edged their bets higher this week following four straight weeks of declines that had subtracted a total of -12,310 contracts from the overall position. The gain this week pushed the net position total above the +50,000 contract level after a dip below this threshold last week. The speculative silver position has now been in bullish territory for eighteen straight weeks, dating back to early June.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -76,906 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -3,125 contracts from the total net of -73,781 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1770.00 which was an uptick of $39.80 from the previous close of $1730.20, according to unofficial market data.


Currency speculators trim US Dollar Index bullish bets

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lowered their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week following a strong run, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 39,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 8th. This was a weekly fall of -3,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,028 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) tumbling by -3,591 contracts (to a weekly total of 48,977 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a decrease by -422 contracts on the week (to a total of 9,118 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators pulled back on their bullish bets for the first time in the past seven weeks. Last week, the spec positions had risen to the most bullish level (+43,028 net contracts) since April 25th of 2017, a span of 127 weeks. The dollar bullish standing has now been above the +30,000 net contract level for six straight weeks and despite the pullback this week, bullish bets have risen in twelve out of the past fifteen weeks.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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