Gold specs sharply pare bullish bets after close to 3-year high

Through Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators sharply cut back on their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 269,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 10th. This was a weekly reduction of -30,822 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 300,547 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -31,271 contracts (to a weekly total of 334,114 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by just -449 contracts for the week (to a total of 64,389 contracts).

Gold bullish bets dropped this week by the largest amount in sixteen weeks after rising above the +300,000 net contract level last week. That was the first time bullish bets had been above that level since September 6th of 2016, almost exactly three years prior. Gold bullish bets have been on a remarkable run since this year’s low-point on April 23rd when the net position stood at just +37,395 contracts. Since that time, just twenty-one weeks ago, bullish positions have exploded higher by a total of +232,330 net contracts and have risen in fourteen out of the twenty weeks following the low.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -305,611 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 32,130 contracts from the total net of -337,741 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1499.20 which was a decrease of $-56.70 from the previous close of $1555.90, according to unofficial market data.


Silver specs edged bullish bets lower 1st time in 4 weeks

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators slightly trimmed their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 60,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 10th. This was a weekly reduction of -1,894 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,125 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -4,564 contracts (to a weekly total of 100,413 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by a lesser amount of -2,670 contracts for the week (to a total of 40,182 contracts).

The Silver speculative bets dipped this week following three straight weeks of gains that had added over +22,000 contracts to the overall net bullish position. Speculator sentiment has risen for ten out of the past fifteen weeks that has taken the net position from a total of -8,443 contracts on June 4th to a total of +60,231 contracts as of this week. Despite the small pullback, this week marked the first time since November of 2017 that the net position has been above +60,000 contracts for two straight weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -84,768 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -90 contracts from the total net of -84,678 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1818.60 which was a loss of $-105.10 from the previous close of $1923.70, according to unofficial market data.


Specs add to US Dollar Index bullish bets

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators continued to raise their net bullish positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while speculators also boosted their Japanese yen positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 32,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 10th. This was a weekly gain of 296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,736 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -4,927 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,483 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a decrease by -5,223 contracts on the week (to a total of 17,451 contracts).

US Dollar Index bullish bets edged higher for a third straight week and have now risen in nine out of the past eleven weeks. This week’s gain brings the USD Index position to the most bullish level in twenty-six weeks dating back to the middle of March.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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