Gold speculators raise bullish bets to highest since 2016

Through Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold speculators raise bullish bets to highest since 2016

Overlay chart of gold COT Large Trader Positions with gold price, August 20, 2019Table of Gold COT Report, August 20, 2019

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators continued to boost their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 299,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 20th. This was a weekly lift of 9,903 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 290,090 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 6,071 contracts (to a weekly total of 352,294 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by -3,832 contracts for the week (to a total of 52,301 contracts).

Gold speculators added to their bullish bets following a slightly down week last week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The trend for gold positions has been sharply higher since the beginning of June as bullish bets have increased ten times out of the twelve weeks since June 4th and by a total of +213,305 contracts.

This week’s gain brings the overall net position within a whisker of the +300,000 contract level that has not been breached since September 6th of 2016 (a span of 154 weeks) when positions totaled +307,860 net contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -336,250 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -12,523 contracts from the total net of -323,727 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1515.70 which was an increase of $1.60 from the previous close of $1514.10, according to unofficial market data.


Silver speculators boost bullish bets after 2 down weeks

Table of silver COT Report, August 20, 2019

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators advanced their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 46,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 20th. This was a weekly rise of 7,445 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,269 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) lowering by -1,533 contracts (to a weekly total of 95,987 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -8,978 contracts for the week (to a total of 49,273 contracts).

Silver Commercial Positions:

Silver speculator positions rebounded this week after falling sharply in the previous two weeks by a total of -25,028 contracts.

The speculator positions had been on fire in the past few months as sentiment for gold and silver started surging very sharply in June. From June 6th to July 30th, silver speculator bets gained for seven out of the nine weeks and rose by a total of +86,706 net contracts.

This week’s rise brings the net position back over the +45,000 net contract level for the fourth time out of the last five weeks.

Silver Futures:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -70,863 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -5,630 contracts from the total net of -65,233 contracts reported the previous week.


US Dollar Index speculators pare bullish bets for 2nd week

Overlay chart of US dollar index COT Large Trader Positions, August 20, 2019

Table of US dollar index COT Report, August 20, 2019

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators reduced their bullish positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while raising their Japanese yen positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 29,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 20th. This was a weekly reduction of -343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,842 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 1,189 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,063 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which rose by 1,532 contracts on the week (to a total of 19,564 contracts).

USD Index speculator positions fell slightly for a second straight week following six straight weeks of gains. Despite the recent declines, the overall net position continues to be strongly bullish and just under the +30,000 net contract level. The USD Index position, in fact, has remained remarkably consistent for over a year now as bullish positions have been above the +20,000 net contract level for fifty-seven consecutive weeks dating back to July of 2018.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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