Gold specs bullish bets take breather after strong 5-week run

Through Tuesday, July 9, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold specs bullish bets take breather after strong 5-week run

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week following a strong runup in recent weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 244,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly decline of -14,183 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 258,946 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) falling by -6,597 contracts (to a weekly total of 306,105 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) advanced by 7,586 contracts for the week (to a total of 61,342 contracts).

Large speculator bets had been surging for five straight weeks to the highest bullish level since September of 2016 before cooling off this week. The strong gains in gold bets started on June 4th and pushed on through July 2nd with a total gain of +172,258 contracts in just that 5-week time period.

The current standing remains very bullish and is above the +200,000 net contract level for a fourth straight week which is the longest streak above +200,000 since January of 2018.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -278,416 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 8,406 contracts from the total net of -286,822 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1400.50 which was a decrease of $-7.50 from the previous close of $1408.00, according to unofficial market data.


Silver specs pull back on bullish bets for 2nd week after strong gains

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week after a strong streak of gains in recent weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 25,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly lowering of -5,304 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,455 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -3,659 contracts (to a weekly total of 96,080 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) rose by 1,645 contracts for the week (to a total of 70,929 contracts).

The large speculators cooled their bullish positions in the past two weeks. Previously, Silver speculator positions had risen very sharply for four straight weeks from June 4th to June 25th, gaining each week by over +10,000 net contracts (by a total of +52,974 contracts) and turning from an overall net bearish position to net bullish.

Despite these couple of pullbacks in the speculator sentiment, the current standing remains in bullish territory for a fifth straight week.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -45,277 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 6,786 contracts from the total net of -52,063 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1514.70 which was a drop of $-9.10 from the previous close of $1523.80, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index specs lift their bullish bets

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators raised their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 27,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 9th. This was a weekly boost of 4,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,417 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position going up by 2,982 contracts (to a weekly total of 36,479 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position which fell by -1,657 contracts (to a total of 9,423 contracts for the week).

The large speculators raised their bullish bets for the dollar index for a second straight week and for the third time in the past four weeks. This week’s gain was the highest one-week increase in almost a year (since July 24th of 2018).


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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