Measuring the bubble

Hussman Funds/John P. Hussman/February, 2018

“This does not, for even a moment, change the fact that the most reliable measures of valuation are now an average of 3.0 times their historical norms. By the completion of every previous market cycle in history, stock prices have approached or breached those norms. So yes, I expect that the S&P 500 will lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this market cycle. The short-run issue is just that nothing prevents the speculative inclinations of investors from driving valuations even higher.”

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