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USAGOLD A/V Series

11.01.2011 Roundtable image
Roundtable 30 minutes
Year-In-Review: The Evolution of Counter Party Risk: Europe in Flux
(December 9, 2011 discussion). Its been another year of positive performance for the gold market, trading roughly 20% higher than where it began the year. Stocks, on the other hand, have been largely flat. Another year, another debt milestone, with the U.S. national debt crossing $15 trillion for the first time in history. Europe remains in flux, with yet another agreement coming forward, yet no true signs of action to give the market any reliable sense of direction. The result has been increased volatility within the range, both for gold and equities. The failure of MF Global is being largely downplayed in the media. Co-mingling investor funds with the firm's risky plays on credit default swaps has destroyed huge sums of private capital. Jon Corzine, in his testimony before the House Agricultural Committee, stated very simply when asked where client's funds went, "I don't know." As a major clearinghouse for commodity futures, MF Global's failure has put a significant dent in the perceived reliability of the futures market as a whole. The erosion of confidence in this arena suggests large swaths of investment capital may seek physical ownership to gain safer (absent of counter-party risk) exposure to the gold market. If this is indeed the trend, it won't take long for the broader market to realize just how little physical gold is actually available. 30 minutes, with George Cooper, Peter Grant, and Jonathan Kosares
Roundtable 30 minutes
The European Bail-Out, MF Global Bankruptcy, Market Euphoria/Panic
(November 1, 2011 discussion). European officials announced a "consensus" on solving their sovereign debt crisis, agreeing to leverage the existing ESFS 4x, bringing the lending power of the bailout facility to just over a trillion dollars. Market euphoria ensued, only to be scuttled shortly after as Greek Prime Minister Papandreou offered the Greek people an opportunity to vote on participation in the bailout through a referendum. Markets sold off sharply as the this was perceived to be a wrench in the whole deal. Now, the Greek referendum is being questioned as unconstitutional, and for now, it looks as though the existing bailout agreement will move forward. Volatility stemming from the uncertainty of the package has affected all markets, including gold. That said, gold now finds itself trading in the mid-$1700's, well off of its lows. In domestic news, MF Global has filed bankruptcy, citing losses on bets gone bad on European Sovereign debt. As the first major American failure linked to the sovereign debt problem in Europe, MF Global quietly represents the eighth largest bankruptcy in American history. While not "another Lehman", it is certainly newsworthy, and the general lack of concern within the market strikes a strong resemblance to the Bear Sterns failure in 2008. Also discussed are this week's FOMC meeting, the G20 meeting and unemployment reports due at the end of the week. With Peter Grant, George Cooper and Jonathan Kosares 30min.
Roundtable 21 minutes
Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: Operation Twist
(October 5, 2011 discussion) The sovereign debt crisis continues to escalate in Europe. Rumor has it that the funds contributed to the ESFS might be levered as much as eight times in an attempt to "go big enough" to calm jittery markets. While levering the fund has been dismissed as rumor, an inability to raise the necessary money from the member states suggests alternative strategies may not be effective. Such action will be reminiscent of US government and Federal Reserve policies in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008...policies that led to a 140% increase in the gold price in just over two years. Gold is now showing signs of consolidating after its recent correction, providing what appears to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially in light of undeniably strong fundamentals borne from a perpetuation of existing international monetary policy. 30min.
Roundtable 21 minutes
Gold Hits $1900 + ...... and Corrects. What's next?
(August 23, discussion) Gold's ascent over the past few weeks has been remarkable. Following the downgrade of US debt by S&P, gold covered the distance between $1600 and $1900 in less than three weeks. Talk of gold being in a bubble quickly resurfaced as gold surged, but very little supports such conclusions. Net global investment in gold remains less than 1% of total assets, compared to levels as high as 5% in the 1960's. Perceived safe haven currencies such as the Yen and the Swiss Franc are being forcibly suppressed, while all dollar and Euro remain under pressure. As Alan Greenspan said earlier this week, "Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency. And the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It's not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating." Also discussed is Hugo Chavez' effort to repatriate Venezuela's gold from the Bank of England, setting the stage for other countries to attempt the same, raising questions about availability if this trend gains momentum. Last week was also the 40th anniversary of Nixon closing the gold window.-- With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares. 21min.

Roundtable 23 minutes
Debt Ceiling "Resolution" EU Soveregn Debt Crisis
(August 2, discussion) -- Now that the debt ceiling debate is over, and the dust is settling, the market is beginning to get a picture of what, if anything, was accomplished, and can be expected moving forward. The $2 trillion in cuts over ten years amounts to a small dent in our annual deficit, suggesting that the U.S. will continue to increase its debt to GDP ratio over the coming decade. The cuts suggested will merely slow, not reverse, this trend. In the end, this debt deal is nothing more than a giant kick of the can down the road, and a short road at that. The hike to the debt ceiling looks to only buy about six months, so this issue is set to be revisited next year. The market has digested this "resolution" as such, and gold has responded sharply higher, rising $60 in two days. The DOW meanwhile has come under significant pressure, shedding over 800 points in a week. Things across the pond are not looking any better. The credit facility set up the ECB is insufficient at best, and contagion remains an enormous risk. Spreads on sovereign debt in Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland are at or near all time highs. As talks of dramatically expanding the credit facility heat up, we're left to wonder if its even possible for Europe to "go big enough" to calm market jitters. With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares.

Roundtable 28 minutes
Sovereign Debt Deja Vu Debt Ceiling
(May 25, discussion) -- As the sovereign debt crisis in Europe ramps up less than a year after first surfacing, one can't help but feel a sense of deja vu. The relative ineffectiveness of the bailout measures used by the European Central Bank over the last year is creating headwinds to a re-implementation of the same measures moving forward. Default for Greece is becoming a very real possibility, creating very real contagion risks for other European banks, the ECB, and even the US banking system. Meanwhile, the United States officially hit its debt ceiling, and is now presented with the implication of raising it yet again by this coming August. This has sparked a spirited political debate of what concessions might be made in government spending before approval of the hike will be granted. Such austerity measures seem practically meaningless as the Federal Reserve has all but guaranteed that any slowdown stemming from political tightening will be counterbalanced with monetary easing, thus making the prospect of future quantitative easing very real. All have combined to escalate gold demand to record levels, with some very prolific purchase of physical metal making headlines over the past few weeks. With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares.
Roundtable 29 minutes
The Perfect Storm in Gold
(April 11th discussion) -- umerous geopolitical and financial factors have converged over the past several weeks, pushing gold to all time highs and silver to 31 year highs. The debate over fiscal responsibility has begun to heat up in Washington, coming on the heels of a near government shutdown over the past weekend. Given the political headwinds to implementing the difficult policies required to make any substantive impact on budget deficits, it remains unknown if any meaningful action will be taken, or if a continuation of existing monetary policies will prove more palatable. With a government stuck squarely between "a rock and a hard place", the dollar index has fallen precipitously to within 4% of its all time low. Simultaneously, instability in the Middle East and North Africa continues to place push the price of oil higher, placing upward pressure on all commodities. Peace in Libya is no closer than at the outset of its conflict, leaving some to worry unrest could continue to spread to other areas of the Middle East, namely Saudi Arabia. Complicating matters further is a reawakening of sovereign debt issues within the European Union. Portugal looks poised to accept a bailout, while the economies of Greece and Ireland have failed to improve, and the giants of Spain and France look increasingly exposed to the same fate. Meanwhile, inflation in the Euro zone has begun to escalate, prompting an increase in interest rates. Such increases are feared to scuttle the growth needed to carry the PIIGS nations out of their malaise. In all, these and many other factors are contributing to form a perfect storm in the metals markets.. Featuring Pete Grant, Jonathan Kosares and George Cooper.
Roundtable 21 minutes
Has Anything Really Changed? Trends to Follow in 2011
(Jan. 26th discussion) -- The World Economic Forum is set to meet this week in Davos, Switzerland to discuss the state of the global economy. A mantra of exuberance has already been noted, suggesting that a mere doubling of global credit by another 100 trillion over the next decade would fuel a global super cycle. This course of action, if taken, carries with it obvious implications. Continued fueling of credit bubbles will perpetuate and perhaps magnify the boom/bust cycles we've grown accustomed to over the past decade. It does, however, mark a noted return of market euphoria, which, coupled with a reduced risk of a sovereign debt default in Europe due to Chinese support in the credit markets, has eroded the risk premium in the gold price, and is perhaps linked to gold's recent pullback. However, in analyzing the technical picture, gold's pullback is quickly nearing vital support areas. The 200-day moving average for gold sits at $1285, with the last assault on the 200-day moving average taking place in mid-July 2010. Interestingly enough, that same pullback coincided with options expiration for the August gold contracts. Today, Wednesday January 26th, also is options expiration date for February contracts. This is significant because option expiration dates have often been associated with reversals in the gold price, as witnessed last July. Add to this the possibility of an enhanced inflation trade for the gold market, and this pullback looks to be an excellent buying opportunity. Featuring Pete Grant, Jonathan Kosares and George Cooper.
Roundtable 26 minutes
QE2 + G20 = Bright Future for Gold
(November 16th, 2010) -- The election results haven't changed anything fundamentally for gold, except perhaps tying up fiscal policy through bipartisan gridlock, leaving the blunt instrument of monetary policy as the primary focal point for the next couple years. The Fed announced a new $600 billion program of quantitative easing with a stimulative objective of boosting inflation through an increase in money supply and a devalued dollar. Members of the G20 are subsequently faced with the threat of inflation as greater inflows of hot money begin chasing higher yields than are available within the U.S. The dollar-depressive QE2 program not only erodes the U.S. credibility as an innocent party in the international currency manipulation debate, it also erodes the dollar's standing as a worthy reserve asset.
Roundtable 28 minutes
QE2 & 'ForeclosureGate'
(October 19th, 2010) -- As bonds, stocks and commodities markets are all currently rising together on the expectations of endless money via the Fed's open promise of QE2, the key question is "Which of these is the more sustainable market?" The bond market could be in for a tumble if the Fed delivers less than the market is expecting, but in the meanwhile, investors with surplus cash are chasing yield along any available avenue. With bond yields near zero, however, that avenue offers no headroom to run and will therefore likely be the first point of abandonment by investors regardless of the magnitude of intervention by the Fed. As a result of that seemingly foregone conclusion, and in light of the weakened economy providing an unfavorable backdrop for stock investments, large and small investors alike are increasingly channeling their funds toward hard assets -- commodities. Gold is benefiting not only from this, but additionally from the global currency war pulling down the value of many international currencies. Among those currencies, the U.S. dollar in particular is vulnerable to the uncertain undercurrents and inevitable need for a federal resolution of the mortgage crisis and the foreclosure quagmire growing within the real estate markets.


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