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Discussion Topics -- January 24, 2014
Where is the Bundesbank Gold?
Improving Technicals Fuel Solid January

(January 24, 2014 discussion) Gold has enjoyed a nice start to 2014, after re-testing the low of $1180 hit last June on New Year's Eve. The yellow metal now sits in the mid-$1260's and from a technical perspective, the appears to be gaining some traction. Meanwhile, numerous fundamental undercurrents have started surfacing, lending further support to the technical picture. As has been the topic of numerous videos past, the supply picture at the central bank level remains in focus. Of particular interest is the slow pace of Germany's repatriation of its gold. Seeking only 300 tonnes over seven years from its roughly 1500 tonnes stored here in the U.S., Germany was able to repatriate a paltry 5 tonnes this past year, which BEGS the question, 'Where is Germany's Gold?'. The almost preposterously slow pace has left the market ripe with speculation on whether or not the gold has been leased, re-leased, re-hypothecated, or at worst, is simply gone. Meanwhile, Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank, is under investigation by BAFIN on their role in the manipulation of FOREX and precious metal's markets. Coincidentally (or not), Duetsche Bank is simultaneously selling its seat on the London Fix. An interesting confluence of events to say the least. John Embry of Sprott Asset Management in an interview last week said he thinks gold will double in the next 12 months. A bullish prognostication to be sure, but isn't too off the wall when you look at the developing chart pattern. If the double-bottom at $1180 holds, and gold manages to cross the middle of the "W" pattern at $1425, it could be nothing but blue sky to new highs. By achieving this technical move, most analysts agree that gold will have officially confirmed its bottom, which would likely prompt a resurgence in the gold trade. Sentiment can change on a dime and like a snowball rolling down the hill, momentum can gather quickly. Of course, we're not out of the woods yet, but its is a compelling story nonetheless considering we're only 10% or so below this level, and gold has already gained 6% in three weeks. Fears of slowing emerging market growth have slammed foreign stock markets this week, taking the US stock market with them. Funds seeking safety have fled to treasuries, the Yen and gold, and such capital flight could be just the fuel needed to challenge these levels in the gold price. Time will tell. 28:08 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Figure 1

gold price jan 2014

Figure 2

10 year yeild

Figure 3

doublechart

Figure 4

DIJA

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