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Discussion Topics -- July 24, 2013
Mid-Summer Review
Shinzo Abe, QE, IR Policy
Fall Fireworks for Gold?

(July 24, 2013 discussion) Gold has gained some solid footing above the $1300 level after a second wave of selling took the yellow metal as low as $1180 in late June. Gold's latest bump came on the heels of Shinzo Abe's confirmation in Japan. Abe's confirmation represented a vote of confidence of 'Abe-nomics', the ultra-loose monetary policy that dwarfs Ben Bernanke's QE programs. For the most part, governments have now spoken. Austerity is out. Print and spend is in. Gold is responding. Continuing discussion of the qualified talk of the end of QE. If QE is terminated, rises in interest rates stand to consume the majority of the government budget and push the US even closer to the edge of the cliff. Can the Fed really stop QE or is it all just talk? In the past, we often discussed a phenomenon in gold prices referred to as "The Summer Doldrums", where gold prices often decline through the summer and accelerate come Fall. This occurred 8 of 10 years from 2002-2011. Thus far, this year sets up well to possibly see another manifestation of this trend. On tap for the fall will be another debt ceiling debate, greater clarity in Fed QE policy (hopefully), the appointment of a new Fed chairman, and a potential reemergence of the Eurozone debt crisis - all former catalysts for big moves in the gold price. With Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper. 36 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Figure 1

Gold July 2013

Figure 2

Morgage Rates 2013

Figure 3

National Debit 2013

Figure 4

National Tresury Yeild 2013

Figure 5

Gold with Volume



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