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Discussion Topics -- May 31, 2013
The Physical Gold Market Dissected
Are the Record # of Gold Shorts Getting Squeezed?
Japan's Economic Policy: Success? Failure?

(May 31, 2013 discussion) The gold market has quieted some in the past few weeks, settling into a range right around $1400/oz. Meanwhile, stocks have risen to all-time highs. What is interesting is that net short positions against gold are also at an all-time high. So put simply, more investors than ever are betting that the gold price will decline. This situation's set up is provocative. If stocks should start to roll-over and come off of their highs (something that has begun to occur over the past few trading days), investors will look to take profits and transition to alternative asset classes. Gold is one of the more relatively undervalued asset classes out there at this time. If gold were to even catch a little upside momentum, a large majority of these short positions will be forced out, and we could see a compounding effect to the upside, the virtual exact opposite of what we witnessed when gold went down sharply a couple of weeks ago. Buttressing this possibility is the ever-evolving picture in the physical gold market. April saw the second largest unit demand for gold eagles in the mint's history, and when compiled against the underlying gold price, represented record demand in terms of dollars invested. The other two peaks came in December 2009 and May 2010 when gold was trading in the $1100-$1200 range. Physical buyers certainly had good timing then, leaving one to wonder if this latest spike in demand will soon play out in price as well. Sprott Asset Management conducted an interesting study recently on gold exports from the United States over the past decade and a half. The results will astonish you. Also discussed is Japan's monetary policy, and how its been both a success and a monumental failure at the same time. The consequences of this monetary experiment could be profound, and must be watched closely. 42 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Figure 1

Debt to GDP by Country

Figure 2

NIKKEI 225 6.3.2013

Figure 3

Gold Price Graph 6.3.2013

Figure 4

Figure 5

DOW 6.13.2013

Figure 6

Gold Eagle Sales

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