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Discussion Topics -- November 1, 2012
Pre-election Discusssion


(November 1, 2012 discussion) It is difficult not to fall into the trap of trying to predict what the gold price will do depending on the outcome of next week's election. The basic theory floating around is that if Obama wins, gold will rise, and if Romney wins, gold will fall. And while, from a short term perspective, such predictions may ultimately prove true, from a long term perspective, the outcome of the election may prove to have little, if any, impact on the gold market. The premise that gold will rise of Obama wins is simply a basic continuation of gold's performance over the past for years. The notion of gold going down if Romney wins is predicated on Romney's stated intentions of not re-appointing Ben Bernanke as head of the Federal Reserve. Such overtures suggest that a Romney presidency may not favor the easy monetary policies largely espoused by the Fed at this time....the same easy monetary policies that have helped fuel the bull market in gold. That said, however, our economy remains very dependent on these injections, and a removal would not be without severe consequences. It is, in essence, easier said than done. Moreover, most fiscal policy measures are borne in congress, and while the president does hold the power of veto, the actual impact of the president on the economy is less than is often credited. All told, there is an ongoing shift in the role of gold in international reserves. The Basel accord is set to move gold from a tier 3 asset to a tier 1 asset, a significant, though underreported, development that would allow countries to collateralize gold to 100% of its value. Such monetization of gold is of considerable significance, and is representative of a much more influential trend in the gold market than the US presidential election. 33 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Figure 1

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Figure 2

debt ceiling

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