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Discussion Topics -- June 14, 2012
Another June-
Another Greek Crisis
Spain's Bailout
QE case building in U.S.

(June 14, 2012 discussion). Another June, another Greek crisis. This marks the the third June in a row where the situation in Europe has escalated sufficiently to bring the union to a crossroads. Greek elections are this weekend, with the Syriza party gaining ground on the premise of 'no more austerity'. This comes on the heels of Hollande's socialist party victory in France just over a month ago. The disconnect between what governments are trying to do to stabilize the sovereign debt situation, and what the people of those countries are willing to accept, continues to widen, highlighted in these elections. Spain meanwhile received a 100 billion euro bailout last week to recapitalize its banking system, though most analysts feel the figure is far short of what Spain will ultimately need, especially if the situation escalates to the sovereign level. Once there, finding out where the money would come from remains an enormous challenge. While many think Germany should come to the rescue, their contributions aggregate to a sizable share of their economy already, and are becoming increasingly difficult to stomach moving forward. Meanwhile, here in the United States, a rash of bad economic numbers has many calling on the Fed for new QE measures. The currency flight over the past few months has driven yields in the U.S. so low though, that little could be accomplished, other than the likely bump in investor confidence, if further easing measures were implemented. Moreover, the political implications of such action (i.e. would the Fed look like they were supporting the Obama administration, or attempting to 'buy' the election by providing a bump to the economy) suggest an interesting road ahead for the Fed, and could diminish the likelihood of an imminent implementation of QE. 27 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Figure 1


Gold Graph 6/14/2012

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