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Discussion Topics -- March 30, 2012
Gold's Bullish Sentiment Indicator
China slowdown
Doorstep to Inflation?

(March 30, 2012 discussion). Recently, the bullish sentiment reading on gold fell to 10%, which, put another way, means that 90% of investors believe gold is headed lower. By comparison, when gold topped out at $1920, the bullish sentiment was above 90%. Many analysts look to extremes in sentiment as indicators for changes in market direction, and have been calling for such a drop in sentiment as a cue to a turning point in the gold price. It is interesting that this indicator coincides with a resurgent stock market. Recent stock market performance is not all its cracked up to be, however. If Apple is removed from the S&P 500, the index would be unchanged on the year. So if you are a stock owner, but did not own Apple stock, all the talk of a well-performing stock market would be lost on your portfolio. Fears of a slowdown in China have increased in the last week, as the Chinese stock market has turned lower. Discussed is what China might do in terms of monetary stimulus should this slowdown gain momentum. If China were to stimulate its economy, it would join the United States, the EU, Japan, and the UK, creating an international environment where all five of the largest economies of the world would simultaneously be operating with easy monetary policies. Talk of inflation here at home has also ramped up of late as gas prices are creeping toward all-time highs. If the Fed wants inflation, inflation it will have. Such an environment of international easy money, combined with domestic inflation, is a potentially explosive one for gold. 25 minutes, with George Cooper, Peter Grant, and Jonathan Kosares

Figure 1

Gold Price March 30 2012

Figure 2

China Shanghai Composite Index

Figure 3

Shadow Stats Inflation
Chart courtesy of shadowstats.com

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