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Discussion Topics -- November 1, 2011
The European Bail-Out, MF Global Bankruptcy, Market Euphoria/Panic

(November 1, 2011 discussion). European officials announced a "consensus" on solving their sovereign debt crisis, agreeing to leverage the existing ESFS 4x, bringing the lending power of the bailout facility to just over a trillion dollars. Market euphoria ensued, only to be scuttled shortly after as Greek Prime Minister Papandreou offered the Greek people an opportunity to vote on participation in the bailout through a referendum. Markets sold off sharply as the this was perceived to be a wrench in the whole deal. Now, the Greek referendum is being questioned as unconstitutional, and for now, it looks as though the existing bailout agreement will move forward. Volatility stemming from the uncertainty of the package has affected all markets, including gold. That said, gold now finds itself trading in the mid-$1700's, well off of its lows. In domestic news, MF Global has filed bankruptcy, citing losses on bets gone bad on European Sovereign debt. As the first major American failure linked to the sovereign debt problem in Europe, MF Global quietly represents the eighth largest bankruptcy in American history. While not "another Lehman", it is certainly newsworthy, and the general lack of concern within the market strikes a strong resemblance to the Bear Sterns failure in 2008. Also discussed are this week's FOMC meeting, the G20 meeting and unemployment reports due at the end of the week. With Peter Grant, George Cooper and Jonathan Kosares 30min.

Figure 1


DOW Jones Industrial Avg.

Figure 2

Gold Price Chart November 1, 2011

Figure 3

Dollar Index

Figure 4

Yield Curve US Government Bonds

Figure 5

Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted

Figure 6

U6 Unemployment Rate

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