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Discussion Topics -- October 16, 2009

Policy vs Language

A discussion of the government's so-called "strong dollar" policy. The Treasury Department under Presidents Clinton, Bush, and now Obama have all paid lip service to a "strong dollar" policy, albeit with varying/diminishing credibility, especially in the current era of ultra low interest rates and a massive Federal Reserve balance sheet. On the other hand, the European politicians have been expressing concern over the euro currency being comparatively too strong, and yet it isn't being followed up by by a policy of lower interest rates. Bearing in mind the foreign exchange intervention mechanisms of competitive currency devaluations that have been particularly evident among the Southeast Asian countries (as an unspoken matter of policy to maintain trade advantages), the dollar's residual strength (such as it is) and its fate to this point has depended largely upon a continuation of the status quo, including its international reserve currency status. At risk, in addition to a loss of currency purchasing power, is the credibility of the political entities who talk about "strong dollars" or, more recently, of "economic recovery", when there is no evidence to back up the hollow words. Perhaps worse yet is the likelihood of an imminent dollar freefall should those words (hollow though they be) cease to be earnestly articulated by the sitting U.S. administration. Managing a gradual decline of the dollar seems to be the general goal shared all around, but as the world of currencies nevertheless remain essentially in concert drifting lower together, gold becomes the natural and universal choice for savings that people everywhere can rely on. Featuring Pete Grant and Jonathan Kosares.

Figure 1
dollar index
Figure 2
Dow-gold ratio

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