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USAGOLD A/V Series

11.01.2011 Roundtable image

Please note all new video's are now done weekly and can be found at the video portion of the Live daily Newsletter Page

Roundtable 26:30 minutes
Fed Raises Rates - Impact on Gold - Low Gold Price Killing Miners - Emerging Market Currency Devaluation to Buoy Gold Demand
(December 18, 2015 discussion) Well, they did it. After months of anticipation the Federal Reserve finally moved to raise their benchmark rate by a quarter point. And though it seems you can’t escape hearing about how terrible this is going to be for gold (thank you mainstream media), you don’t have to look far to see that this move may very well have the exact opposite result for the yellow metal. Gold has, at this point, virtually fully priced in both the current hike and an additional one percent hike to rates over the course of next year. But how likely is this gradual tightening cycle, really? For starters, the Fed’s decision to raise rates looks to be nothing more than a ‘preservation of credibility’ play. After so much talk of doing it, the Fed had basically painted itself into a corner, and left themselves no choice. So to think they will automatically stick to projections moving forward is suspect at best. Decisions will remain ‘data dependent’, and as we all know, the data ain’t nearly as good as they want us to think it is. So with that in mind, if the consensus is gold has fully priced in rate hikes far beyond what may actually occur, it is suggestive of gold actually shrugging off its ‘expected performance’ as we move into next year.

Buttressing this notion, emerging market economies and resource economies both have seen their currencies devalue sharply as the dollar has strengthened and commodity prices have come under pressure. China saw 10 straight days of a declining Yuan (the longest such streak to date), and on the heels of a stock market crash, Chinese citizens will surely be looking to gold to preserve and protect their savings. As would anyone who is seeing their local currency devalue rapidly. Moreover, the depressed price environment has begun to have significant impacts on the mining industry. Most mines reported losses in the third quarter (and that was at $1200 gold!) and Anglo American recently made headlines when they cut nearly 75% of their workforce. And it isn’t a situation where as soon as prices recover, they’ll just ramp back up. A lot of these operations are ceasing to exist. If any kind of economic disruption should surface that drives a massive wave of gold demand, there simply won’t be enough to go around. The damage in essence, is done. And if you’re looking for the canary in the coal mine, look no further than the high yield ‘junk’ bond market. With three major funds closing their doors due to an overwhelming demand for redemptions, it’s not surprising Carl Icahn is calling this market a “keg of dynamite that sooner or later will explode”. And it wouldn’t’ be the first time the junk bond market precipitated a broader crisis.

All told, physical demand for gold and silver at the individual investor level remains enormously strong, with the US Mint expected to announce record silver sales for the year. It would appear, and rightfully so, that our clients, and good many other buyers the world over, aren’t exactly buying the main stream press’ narrative on the gold market. 26:20 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Note: We had some technical issues with our sound but wanted to make sure you had the content of the video to view before the end of the year. The sound will be fixed for the next video.

Roundtable 29:49 minutes
Shades of 2008 - World Stock Markets Fall Sharply - Gold/Silver Demand Skyrockets
(September 2, 2015 discussion) Shades of 2008. As the Shanghai Composite Index started falling in July, markets all over the world began to gyrate. Even gold saw a significant down day on July 20th, crashing over $50 overnight before eventually stabilizing. Such a strong move downward brought out all the bearish analysts, some even calling for $350 gold. Yet, as is often the case, when sentiment was so overwhelmingly negative, gold unexpectedly held its ground. Fast forward a couple of weeks, and a couple of surprise devaluations of the Yuan has prompted heavy downside volatility in all stock markets. Some might say gold should be rocketing higher given these circumstances, but for those of us who are students of the past, we remember that in 2008 gold initially fell (ironically giving fuel to bears back then as well), before eventually tripling over the next three years. And just like in 2008, demand for the physical metal has skyrocketing over the past 6 weeks. Mints around the world are experiencing delays, and premiums on silver products have pushed sharply higher. It seems, as has been the case many times before, the physical market is telling a decidedly different story than the paper market. Eventually, the two will come together, and if the 2008-2011 period is any indication, we may be on the doorstep to some very interesting times. 29:21 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 33:45 minutes
Dovish Fed - Grexit? - Bonds Foretelling Drop in Stocks - The Yuan's Future as a Reserve Currency
(June, 2015 discussion) Another Fed meeting, another reiteration of dovish sentiment, and another push down the road on the expected timing of interest rate hikes. At some point, it gets a little silly. Gold has been somewhat capped and rangebound as the market digests 'expectations', yet here we are looking at a full year passing with no hikes in interest rates while the market has traded as though such action by the Fed was a given - not a question of 'if', but a question of 'when'. But more and more, its looking the question should be 'if'.

Meanwhile, the situation in Greece is once again escalating, with a large deadline looming on June 30th. Greece owes a payment of 1.5 billion euros to the IMF, and is completely unable to make the payment. They are desperately trying to renegotiate the terms of their debt, and remain in the Euro, but the divide suggest a 'Grexit' is back on the table. Time will tell, but at this point it amounts to a standoff, that will in all likelihood lead to an 11th hour deal, just like last time. But at some point, all involved countries are going to have to access whether or not there is any other viable outcome than Greece defaulting. Kicking the can does not a long term solution make. A Greek default needs to remain on all investors' radars, for what it could mean to international markets and to their personal portfolios.

The bond market has begun to behave in way not seen since the summer of 1987 - and any student of markets remembers what happened that fall. In fact, analysts are beginning to show up everywhere, speaking of bubbles and overvalued market conditions as they issue warnings of an imminent decline in equities markets. One analyst suggested that the recent spike in bond yields translates to a 20% decline in the S&P 500. This may be a summer where the old adage to 'sell (equities) in may and go away' might not be a bad idea. By all metrics, gold, on the other had, remains undervalued, on par with where it stood in 2007 in terms of relative valuations to equities.

And in an interesting turn of events, the state of Texas has passed legislation to open a state run depository so that they can 'repatriate' their gold holdings from the Fed depository in New York. They've also included explicit language that such gold held in state would be immune to a Federal confiscation. Gold confiscation is a common topic of conversation when clients call our offices, and we have devised strategies to insulate individual holdings against the risk that a majority of our clients employ, but this move by Texas is very interesting both in its unabashed public admission of such a possibility/risk, as well as the immediacy of the steps they are taking to protect their position.
33:45 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 29:49 minutes
Gold Doing Exactly What Its Supposed To Do - Imminent 'Grexit'?- The Future of the 'Strong Dollar'
(April, 2015 discussion) As we film another video with gold hanging around the $1200 level, one can't help but ask, 'what's wrong with gold?' Well the answer is, 'Absolutely nothing!'. In fact, gold is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. In fact, the simple fact that gold has held up as well as it has as the dollar has seen one of its biggest rallies ever is a testament to gold's ascending role as an international currency. The inverse correlation between the dollar and gold is well known, but the divergence over the past several months has been stark. The dollar has rallied over 25%, and gold isn't down a penny. To put that into context, the last time the dollar index neared 100 was in 2002, when gold traded below $300 an ounce! Moreover, the last time the dollar and the euro were at parity was later that same year, again when gold was below $300. What this shows, is the gold's value in terms of dollars is just waiting for its turn...and this time, we won't be launching from $300, we'll be launching from $1200. You do the math. And make no mistake, the 'strong dollar' is not here to stay. It won't be long before the powers that be start highlighting just how negatively the strong dollar is impacting the overall health of our economy. Put simply, when everyone else is easing, don't expect the US to be the only one fighting the tide. This carries over to the prospect of an interest rate hike by the Fed, and you quickly begin to see just how difficult such policy will be to implement. It's no wonder rumblings of QE4 are already begun to surface.

All the while, the fundamental landscape remains remarkably supportive of gold as well. Just recently, Goldman Sachs came out with remarks about 'peak gold' hitting sometime this year. Meanwhile, both India and China remain voracious in their demand for the yellow metal. It doesn't take a degree in economics to see how that supply/demand equation is going to play out. Still in play is a possible Greek default, or worse, a 'Grexit', a situation that is both contributing to the decline in value in the Euro, as well as the rise in the dollar. The fallout of such an event could border on catastrophic, and cause numerous financial shocks to ripple through the market. And while such an environment might lead to further dollar strength, it will undoubtedly lead to gold demand as well. Such demand in gold as the dollar rises would only further highlight the dissolution of the historic gold/dollar correlation.

In a quick note on the market, a couple of remarkable opportunities have surfaced of late within the broader sphere of precious metals, namely in silver and US $20 gold pieces. Both afford the client the opportunity to increase gains moving forward should we return to a rising price environment. We invite your inquiry if you'd like to learn more. 27:24 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 29:49 minutes
Race to the Bottom - Has the Currency War Officially Begun?
(February, 2015 discussion) Gold started the new year with a bang, rising more than 8% in January. The yellow metal was underpinned by a fresh wave of central bank easings (there were 15 in January alone), as the global currency wars intensify.

The big shocker for January occurred when the Swiss National Bank pulled the franc's ceiling against the euro, resulting in extreme foreign exchange market volatility. At one point during the day, the Swiss franc was up 40% against the single currency.

This move of course was driven by the expectation that the European Central Bank would begin quantitative easing. That expectation proved to be well-founded as Mario Draghi announced that more than €1 trillion euros would be printed over an 18-month period (at a minimum).

Providing additional turmoil in Europe was the latest iteration of the Greek debt crisis. Late-January elections brought the anti-austerity Syriza party to power; and they are doing their best to live up to their campaign promises. They are seeking a restructuring of their bailout with a rollback of the austerity measures that were a cornerstone of the original deal.

However, Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis freely acknowledges that his country is already bankrupt. If no deal can be struck, Greece will default and quite possible get ejection from — or choose to quit — the EU.

Amidst the fast running tide of monetary policy easings, the Fed stands alone in continuing to talk about rate hikes, even as much of the economic data continue to reflect growth and deflation risks. Nonetheless, the mere possibility of divergent monetary policy has caused the dollar to rise significantly. Dollar strength is hurting U.S. exporters, and therefore growth, while simultaneously exacerbating the price risks.

Unless something changes dramatically, the reality is that the Fed is going to find it difficult to justify a rate hike this year. When the Fed rejoins the battle to try and knock the greenback lower, gold is likely to benefit greatly. 29:49 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 31:51 minutes
What to Watch for in 2015
(December 16, 2014 discussion) As we head into 2015, it seems we're amidst a growing storm. Here in the United States, Congress recently passed the latest spending bill, a whopping $1.1 Trillion. While the contributions to the national debt alone (we just crossed $18 trillion, by the way!) are enough to raise an eyebrow, buried - though not too deeply - in the bill was a roll back of a number of Dodd-Frank restrictions on banks. Central to the restrictions being rolled back was a provision where banks were not allowed to invest in derivatives with FDIC insured deposits. Well no more! Only three years after banks were (rightfully) restricted in the areas thought to be most responsible for causing the financial crisis (and the highest risk of causing another), the banks have been given free reign again. And the language for this roll-back was authored by none other than CitiBank.

Meanwhile, the situation in Russia is growing ever more precarious. Oil prices have plummeted over the past few months, and its hard not to think that some political wrangling is at play here. Russia depends greatly on oil exports, and the fall in oil has hit them especially hard. The Ruble is under enormous stress, having fallen nearly 50% in the last month. Mired in a true currency crisis, talk of capital controls in Russia has now entered the conversation as they do anything and everything they can to stabilize their economy. But the falling oil price has knock on effects, especially in the realm of high yield corporate bonds. Roughly 15% of all corporate bonds are tied to energy companies, and the falling oil price has put them at risk of default. Already the junk bond market is starting to fracture, and the consequences will be something to monitor in 2015.

Let's not forget Japan amidst the mess in Russia. Shinzo Abe maintained his power and majority in a snap election last week, essentially earning the support he needs to continue with his mandate, the three arrow approach of ultra-loose monetary policy. Beneath the confirmation is the reality that the turnout for the election was the worst in years, with nearly 50% of voters not participating - an indictment not just of Abe, but of the Japanese political landscape in general. With Japan falling into recession again, one has to seriously start to question the efficacy of QE there. Debt is reaching preposterous levels, which is weighing on the Yen, and the solvency of the country. Most already believe Japan has effectively nationalized its bond market, a reality that could have far-reaching consequences. Nonetheless, Abe intends to keep the pedal to the metal - another story to watch as we head into 2015.
Can't leave out "Super Mario" and the European Union. That's right, Europe isn't escaping discussion in this video, as the ECB is now in plans to push for QE of its own at the start of next year. And why not? Greece is a mess again, Spain was just downgraded, and the whole region is threatened with a recession. The Germans are pushing back with everything they've got, citing, among other things, the extremely low value/utility in QE policies. All the while, we must ask, why are so many European countries repatriating their gold?

And while all of these elements in conjunction would suggest support for gold prices, gold continues to struggle around $1200 and stocks push toward all time highs. Perhaps, we are at an inflection point. A really interesting chart was published a week or so ago showing Hindenburg omens over the past few decades. While in 1987, a single Hindenburg omen was seen right before the crash, a more concrete indication appears to be the build up of omens over a period of time. The graph says it all, but in essence, the buildup of omens looks an awful lot like the periods prior to the market declines of 1999-2000 and 2008.
If these gathering clouds converge into a perfect storm in 2015, it could prove to be a very interesting year for gold - and we'll be here to report it every step of the way. Thank you for your support over the years. From all of us at USAGOLD, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year, and all the best for a Golden 2015! 31:51 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 24:04 minutes
Swiss Gold Referendum - German Slowdown - ECB Bond Buying
(October 21, 2014 discussion) Gold has rebounded nicely from its lows in the $1180s, and is now trading just shy of $1250 - +6% on the year. Meanwhile, stocks saw a significant pullback last week that leaves the market, despite the numerous all-time highs reached thus far, struggling to break even for 2014. This performance disparity is worth emphasizing as stocks have been championed all year as being in a bull market, whereas gold has been relegated to ridiculous downside prognostications and general disgust from the investing community, yet gold is the asset class of the two that is actually in positive territory for the year.

Meanwhile, all is set for the people of Switzerland to vote on their referendum on November 30th to repatriate their gold, as well as mandate a 20% backing of their currency in gold. A positive vote would require the Swiss government/national bank to acquire some 1500 tonnes of gold, a physical demand situation that is sure to shake up an already tight physical market. One has to wonder, with China as the #1 producer, yet not a single ounce of exports, and Russia, India, Brazil, and a host of other developing nations all acquiring gold, just where this gold would come from. Physical shortages like those that gripped the market in 2008-09 seem an all-too-realistic possibility.

Germany has reported a considerable slow-down in its economy and fears are growing that Europe is going to be again thrown into recession. Meanwhile, the ECB has begun a bond purchasing program. While it is not QE by traditional definition, speculation is that once the door is open, the ECB will stealthily move into the market of sovereign debt. It is somewhat astonishing that Central Banks around the world continue to implement QE policies when the jury is still out on whether or not they're even effective. It will be a sad day when everyone wakes up to realize that a fortune has been spent with little or no positive impact.

To say the least, there is an interesting confluence of events brewing. This country has seen some sort of crisis every seven years. It has been seven years since the 2008 crisis. Meanwhile, gold is displaying a bottoming pattern and seems poised to reassert its role both in the international monetary system, as well as in the individual investment portfolio. 24:04 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper

Roundtable 24:04 minutes
Summer's Over, Buckle Your Seat Belt - Interest Rates and Gold - Demographic Challenges - Mis-priced Risk
(August 21, 2014 discussion) With only the last few days of summer remaining, its time to buckle our seat belts and get ready - the fall is traditionally a very active time of year for the gold market. This week featured the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is an annual meeting of the Federal Reserve governors to discuss the state of the American economy and plans for Fed policy. Perhaps the most analyzed topic is interest rates, with much discussion centered on when actual rate hikes are set to come. Just murmurs of hikes coming 'sooner than expected' caused a little sell off in gold on Thursday. But we're not buying it. Stocks and bonds don't seem to believe the hype as yields continue to push lower, while stocks still hover near all-time highs. Gold seems to be the only asset 'trading the rumor', but that in-and-of-itself is a bit misplaced. Traditionally, the Fed is more reactive than proactive, and interest rate increases tend to be responses to strengthening labor conditions as well as increased inflation. As such, gold has actually typically performed very well during environments where rates are rising, namely in the late 1970's as well as the early 2000's.

Meanwhile, the stock market is seeing more and more in the way of analysts calling for large-scale pullbacks. Most recently, analyst Harry Dent called for stocks to fall dramatically (5000 DOW in two years), due to major demographic challenges in our economy. His reasoning centers around the idea that the only reason stocks have not already responded to this is because of the injections of liquidity by the Fed following the financial crisis. And while Mr. Dent's analysis may be a little extreme, he highlights a very important problem for most developing economies, from our own, to Japan, to European countries as well. We have an aging population with fewer and fewer young people to support it. This strikes at the heart of our potential for long term economic growth, our ability to maintain entitlement programs, and the solvency of our governments. Moreover, Fed injections, combined with the investing behavior of this aging population, have mis-priced risk across multiple asset classes, creating irrationalities in many markets, as investors desperately seek guaranteed yield to the point of reckless abandon. Junk bonds for example are trading with yields only 2X as great as those of long-term treasuries, a clear disconnect between price and risk. It is possible, though, that this phenomenon is starting to turn over. There have been substantial flights of capital from the junk bond market over the past few months. Are the insiders starting to exit?

So where do precious metals stand in all of this? The ratio of the value of gold and silver to housing, bonds, and stocks all point to precious metals being one of the only undervalued investible asset classes. Moreover, silver is looking increasingly undervalued compared to gold. And to bring it all together, as Grant Williams references in his latest letter, physical gold supplies are under far more pressure than they were the last time a financial crisis hit, and a significant stock market pull back took place. What will happen the next time around as the gold market's biggest sellers (Central Banks) have now turned into buyer's and holders? Who will supply the vast amounts of gold that the public will demand when the believers refuse to sell? It will be an interesting environment, to say the least.. 24:04 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 18:31 minutes
Gold up $40, why? - Rishing oil prices - Gold's safe haven role returns
Someone lit a fire in the gold market yesterday (Thursday, June 19th), as the yellow metal rose $40+ in U.S. trading. Theories abound as to what exactly caused such a sharp rise in gold, but our best guess is it was likely a confluence of several factors. One, as ZeroHedge first reported, a Chinese trading company is being investigated for securing loans from foreign banks with collateral they did not own and/or pledging the same collateral multiple times. The concern is heightened by the fact that if one trading company was doing it, perhaps many were. Where there's smoke there's fire.What ZeroHedge is suggesting, is that part of unwinding these dubious Chinese Commodity Finance Deals (CCFDs) would likely include buying in short hedges in the paper gold market, thereby causing the price to rise. Second, Yellen backtracked on her statements regarding the timeline for raising interest rates, inferring economic growth may not be as robust as previously thought and forestalling a rising rate environment that tends to work against gold. And third, the spike in tensions in the Middle East has begun to show in oil prices, and the typically positive correlation between gold and oil prices may be reasserting itself.

Rising oil prices threaten to reverse the fledgeling recoveries in Europe, Japan and the United States. Though energy isn't included in the inflation figures here in the United States, its impact moves well past the cost of gasoline. Energy costs are factored into the price of nearly every good and service we pay for, and sustained rises will ripple through nearly every part of our daily lives. It will be interesting to see if gold plays catch up with oil in terms of price, as the historic correlation has been somewhat absent as of late.

The recent spike in geo-political tension is notable as well, with the Ukraine/Russia conflict still unresolved, the escalation of sectarian violence in the Middle East, and continued resource based conflict in the Far East. All the while, gold's role as a safe haven asset is being renewed. This is notable because, as gold declined last year, it was relegated to a 'risk asset' and, due to its volatility, it was hard to deny such claims. However, after a year of consolidating in price and building its base, perhaps it is time for the sun to shine again on gold as the only currency that can't be printed, destroyed or debased. 18:31 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 31:29 minutes
CBGA 4 - Peak Gold - Low Interest Rates Forever?
(May 19, 2014 discussion)
"Owning gold isn't about the price. Trading it is. Owning gold is all about possession."

Yesterday (May 19) marked the signing of the 4th Central Bank Gold Agreement. While such an agreement appears superfluous as Central Banks have been net buyers of gold for 4 years now, and the limits on sales from the 3rd agreement were functionally meaningless, it was the statement that "Gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves," that caught our eye. Here in the US, and in western economies in general, we've spent the better part of most of our lives hearing that gold is a 'barbarous relic' that serves no functional role in modern finance. It would seem that Central Banks around the world disagree with such a notion. Of equal interest is the supply picture for gold both looking back and moving forward. It is nothing short of ironic that more gold has been mined over the past fifty years than in the roughly 3000 years of civilization preceding it. Of course this flies in the face of the barbarous relic moniker, but also highlights an interesting takeaway from this year's CBGA. It would appear that, more than ever, possession of gold is what matters. One look at the supply picture moving forward magnifies this even further. There is no denying the fact that the easy gold (as we know it), is gone. Gone are the miles long gold fields in South Africa, the big nuggets of California. More and more, it takes processing hundreds of tons of rock just to pull a single ounce of gold. The CEO of Natural Resource Holdings, Roy Sebag, compiled a report a couple of years ago looking at in ground deposits of all major mining companies to determine when we might hit "Peak Gold" - the moment when production hits a max, and begins to decline. His research concluded, that at current rates, peak gold would be reached sometime in the next 7-10 years. Is there a connection between this reality, the growing demand from Asian countries, and the unwillingness of Central Banks to part with gold? It would sure seem logical enough. Meanwhile, here in the states, we're being given plenty of reasons to look at precious metals. Though the prices have been range bound for the better part of a year now, the housing market is showing increasing signs of froth, the stock market is inconsistent, and a near permanent commitment to low interest rates is destroying the bond market. One could very easily argue that the only undervalued asset class is precious metals. 31:29 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

"The point of owning gold is NOT to get rich but to stay rich, and sometimes, simply by staying rich, you can become very wealthy indeed"

Roundtable 22:11 minutes
Russia/Crimea - Gold ETF Inflows - China Slowdown
(March 17, 2014 discussion) The Russian/Crimean conflict continues to underpin the gold price. Gold has risen roughly $75 from the outset of the conflict. Crimea voted Sunday to leave the Ukraine and join Russia - a move that will become official after a confirmation by the Russian parliament. Where Putin goes from here is anyone's best guess, but one has to wonder what will come of other Russian speaking areas of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, as well as regions with similar influence in other former Soviet satellites. Needless to say, the destabilization of this area will remain in focus for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the rising gold price has attracted a renewed interest in the gold trade, with gold ETF's showing their first inflows since late 2012. Gold ETF's are required to secure in physical form each and every ounce that is purchased through within the fund. During the massive liquidation of gold last year, substantial physical supplies were noted to move West to East, and end up in strong hands in China. If ETF demand continues to increase, it will be very interesting to see whether or not the funds will be able to acquire the necessary gold. Global demand remains far above supply. Another very large mouth to feed could exacerbate the already burgeoning supply issues. The Chinese economy has begun to slow, and poses a potential headwind to equity values around the world. Moreover, China also allowed its first corporate debt default last week. Until now, Beijing had always bailed out any troubled companies to preserve confidence in its credit markets. We're left to question how many more corporate defaults may come, and what the impact on investor confidence might be. As was the case here in the United States, any fractures in confidence usually lead investors to gold, and such activity will only further support gold demand. The dollar index has moved lower in its range and sits just above the critical support level of 79. A break below this level could cause a massive sell-off in the dollar index, a trend that will be supportive of gold prices. For example, when the dollar index last traded into the low 70's, it paralleled the rise in gold to $1900. 29:11 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 28:08 minutes
Where is the Bundesbank Gold? Improving Technicals Fuel Solid January

(January 24, 2014 discussion) Recap: Gold has enjoyed a nice start to 2014, after re-testing the low of $1180 hit last June on New Year's Eve. The yellow metal now sits in the mid-$1260's and from a technical perspective, the appears to be gaining some traction. Meanwhile, numerous fundamental undercurrents have started surfacing, lending further support to the technical picture. As has been the topic of numerous videos past, the supply picture at the central bank level remains in focus. Of particular interest is the slow pace of Germany's repatriation of its gold. Seeking only 300 tonnes over seven years from its roughly 1500 tonnes stored here in the U.S., Germany was able to repatriate a paltry 5 tonnes this past year, which BEGS the question, 'Where is Germany's Gold?'. The almost preposterously slow pace has left the market ripe with speculation on whether or not the gold has been leased, re-leased, re-hypothecated, or at worst, is simply gone. Meanwhile, Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank, is under investigation by BAFIN on their role in the manipulation of FOREX and precious metal's markets. Coincidentally (or not), Duetsche Bank is simultaneously selling its seat on the London Fix. An interesting confluence of events to say the least. John Embry of Sprott Asset Management in an interview last week said he thinks gold will double in the next 12 months. A bullish prognostication to be sure, but isn't too off the wall when you look at the developing chart pattern. If the double-bottom at $1180 holds, and gold manages to cross the middle of the "W" pattern at $1425, it could be nothing but blue sky to new highs. By achieving this technical move, most analysts agree that gold will have officially confirmed its bottom, which would likely prompt a resurgence in the gold trade. Sentiment can change on a dime and like a snowball rolling down the hill, momentum can gather quickly. Of course, we're not out of the woods yet, but its is a compelling story nonetheless considering we're only 10% or so below this level, and gold has already gained 6% in three weeks. Fears of slowing emerging market growth have slammed foreign stock markets this week, taking the US stock market with them. Funds seeking safety have fled to treasuries, the Yen and gold, and such capital flight could be just the fuel needed to challenge these levels in the gold price. Time will tell.28:08 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 34:28 minutes
Year End Review, What to Watch for in 2014

(Dec 9, 2013 discussion) Recap: In terms of price, gold has had a tough year. After starting the year at roughly $1700/ounce, the gold price fell through the first six months of the year hitting a low in mid June at $1180 per ounce. Even though gold has stabilized over the last six months, it is all but certain to have its first losing year after twelve consecutive years of gains. And while this has been somewhat difficult to digest for gold owners, many take resolve in the recognition that gold, as a non-correlated asset, has actually done exactly what it is supposed to do. And while mainstream financial media continues to pile on the yellow metal, we at USAGOLD are starting to see the makings of a recovery in the gold market. More and more analysts are stepping forward to announce their skepticism about the sustainability of the current rally in equities. The bond market has started to roll over, but remains in a sort of 'no man's land', where yields are too low to attract long term investment, but appearing to be on the rise, crippling the premium trade. In some areas, housing is reaching the same levels seen toward the end of the housing bubble. Gold, it would seem, is one of the only remaining asset classes to appear 'undervalued'. There is a general consensus that all markets have been greatly distorted by the Quantitative Easing policies of the Federal Reserve. Yet that said, gold has lost just about all of its QE premium. The same cannot be said for equities or bonds, further highlighting the attractive relative value of gold at this time. From a fundamental point of view, both gold and silver demand saw records this year. China will ultimately import close to 2000 tonnes of gold this year, which amounts to the entirety of global gold output. Taxes and tariffs have done little to abate Indian demand. Meanwhile, in the United States, 10 times as many silver Eagles were purchased by American investors as gold Eagles - a record. With such a strong fundamental underpinning, it seems the only thing holding the gold price back is technical weakness, and the absence of speculative money. That could change in an instant, and as gold appears to be finding a bottom, may not be too far off.  34:28 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 22:38 minutes
Janet Yellen Nomination, Debt Ceiling "resolution", Bond Market Instability

(Oct 11, 2013 discussion) 22:38 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 36 minutes
Mid-Summer Review - Shinzo Abe, QE, IR Policy - Fall Fireworks for Gold?

(July 24, 2013 discussion) Gold has gained some solid footing above the $1300 level after a second wave of selling took the yellow metal as low as $1180 in late June. Gold's latest bump came on the heels of Shinzo Abe's confirmation in Japan. Abe's confirmation represented a vote of confidence of 'Abe-nomics', the ultra-loose monetary policy that dwarfs Ben Bernanke's QE programs. For the most part, governments have now spoken. Austerity is out. Print and spend is in. Gold is responding. Continuing discussion of the qualified talk of the end of QE. If QE is terminated, rises in interest rates stand to consume the majority of the government budget and push the US even closer to the edge of the cliff. Can the Fed really stop QE or is it all just talk? In the past, we often discussed a phenomenon in gold prices referred to as "The Summer Doldrums", where gold prices often decline through the summer and accelerate come Fall. This occurred 8 of 10 years from 2002-2011. Thus far, this year sets up well to possibly see another manifestation of this trend. On tap for the fall will be another debt ceiling debate, greater clarity in Fed QE policy (hopefully), the appointment of a new Fed chairman, and a potential reemergence of the Eurozone debt crisis - all former catalysts for big moves in the gold price. 36 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 45 minutes
The Physical Gold Market Dissected - Are the Record # of Gold Shorts Getting Squeezed? - Japan's Economic Policy: Success? Failure?

(May 31, 2013 discussion) The gold market has quieted some in the past few weeks, settling into a range right around $1400/oz. Meanwhile, stocks have risen to all-time highs. What is interesting is that net short positions against gold are also at an all-time high. So put simply, more investors than ever are betting that the gold price will decline. This situation's set up is provocative. If stocks should start to roll-over and come off of their highs (something that has begun to occur over the past few trading days), investors will look to take profits and transition to alternative asset classes. Gold is one of the more relatively undervalued asset classes out there at this time. If gold were to even catch a little upside momentum, a large majority of these short positions will be forced out, and we could see a compounding effect to the upside, the virtual exact opposite of what we witnessed when gold went down sharply a couple of weeks ago. Buttressing this possibility is the ever-evolving picture in the physical gold market. April saw the second largest unit demand for gold eagles in the mint's history, and when compiled against the underlying gold price, represented record demand in terms of dollars invested. The other two peaks came in December 2009 and May 2010 when gold was trading in the $1100-$1200 range. Physical buyers certainly had good timing then, leaving one to wonder if this latest spike in demand will soon play out in price as well. Sprott Asset Management conducted an interesting study recently on gold exports from the United States over the past decade and a half. The results will astonish you. Also discussed is Japan's monetary policy, and how its been both a success and a monumental failure at the same time. The consequences of this monetary experiment could be profound, and must be watched closely. 42 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 34 minutes
The Paper Market Panics While Physical Buyers Rejoice
(April 28, 2013 discussion) The dramatic decline in gold two weeks ago has prompted a physical buying spree reminiscent of the 2008/2009 financial crisis. As the paper market went into panic, physical buyers rejoiced. Regarding the paper sell-off, we know this much to be true: A single entity sold 100 metric tonnes of paper gold on Friday April 12th, triggering an initial wave of stop loss order below the market support levels of $1520-1525. A follow on sale on Monday of 300 metric tonnes pushed gold $130 lower. The two day sell-off garnered wide-spread media attention, with the majority of outlets calling this the sure end to the bull market in gold. Anyone promoting stocks at the expense of gold quickly jumped aboard the "I told you so" bandwagon. Such cherry picking of data is laughable and we think this sell-off is hardly supportive of such conclusions. Gold has begun to regain its footing on the strength of physical demand, and has already recovered close to 75% of the decline. Meanwhile, premiums on physical gold and silver items has begun to push higher, as the paper market writes checks the physical market can't cash. Silver Eagles, for example, have seen premiums increase by 15%+. Historic $20 gold pieces are actually more expensive today than they were before the decline, due to premium expansion. The COMEX is only issuing warehouse receipts to would be takers of physical delivery. All the while, despite calls otherwise, the fundamental macroeconomic thesis on gold has not changed in the slightest. Japan is embarking on the greatest money printing experiment in the modern history. Europe continues to struggle with recession and the policy of austerity is wearing thin. And while some signals in our own economy suggest things are improving, its not showing up in the data. All scenarios suggest a continuation and perhaps expansion of the existing easy money policies, policies that tend to promote positive movement in the gold price. 34 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.
Roundtable 31 minutes
Bullish Sentiment Readings for Stocks and Gold Foretelling What's Next?
(March 15, 2013 discussion) Coincidence? Apple stock started to decline rapidly following its peak at just above $700/share in September of 2012. Shortly after the decline gained momentum, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started to inexplicably climb, charging 2000 points higher in 4 months, culminating in the all time highs we are currently seeing. Is it possible that the fuel that propelled the DJIA to an-all time high was just a transfer of funds coming out of Apple stock? It's not too crazy when you consider that the lost market cap in Apple's decline is the equivalent of an entire Microsoft or GE. Bullish sentiment in the stock market is at 90%. In other words, 90% of polled analysts/investors believe the stock market is headed higher, where only 10% disagree. By comparison, 95% of respondents think gold is going lower, with only 5% taking a bullish stance. The last time there was a such a disparity in bullish sentiment between stocks and gold was in 2007...the last time the DJIA peaked at 14K and change and gold was trading in the $700 range. We all remember what took place in the following year, 2008. Also discussed is the evolution of Japanese monetary policy with the confirmation of Kuroda, the threat of Fed policy changes, and developing LIBOR-esque inquiry into the London gold market. 31 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.
Roundtable 39 minutes
German Gold Repatriation - Fiscal Cliff and Debt Ceiling - US Mint Shortages
(January 28, 2013 discussion) One month into the new year and some very interesting developments in the gold market. Price-wise, gold has remained range bound, trading between $1630 and $1700. Earlier this month, Germany announced plans to repatriate a portion of their gold holdings stored in Paris and New York. Hugo Chavez was largely marginalized for his push to bring back his gold last year. Germany, on the other hand, claims the second largest individual gold holdings in the world and represents a decidedly different sentiment in their effort. An interesting aspect of this story is that Germany has agreed to allow this transition to take place over the course of 8 years, which is a seemingly inordinate length of time, raising numerous questions ranging from the existence of the gold altogether to the complexity of the long standing gold leasing agreements. In either event, it seems the 8 year buffer is meant to allow as much time as is possible to prevent a complete fracturing of the gold reserve system. Some trends to watch will be whether or not other countries follow suit, and how much we come to learn about just who owns these gold reserves, and if there is sufficient metal to fulfill all the standing promises. This could prove to be one of the biggest stories for the gold bull market is some time. In other news, the US political picture remains as entertaining, yet ineffective as ever with the 'solution' to the fiscal cliff and the 'solution' to the debt ceiling debate. As has been the case for some time now, no one seems willing to make any of the tough choices required to meaningfully alter our present trajectory. Also discussed is the recent shortage of silver Eagles from the US mint.
  39 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper
Roundtable 39 minutes
Year-In-Review and What Lies Ahead
(December 14, 2012 discussion) It was an exciting year for gold, with daily movements in the price highlighted primarily by either escalations in the ongoing European debt crisis, or rumors/announcements of various QE measures by the Federal Reserve. In the end, gold is finishing the year just shy of 10% higher that where it started. A respectable showing in an uncertain landscape. While it may not be entirely reflected in the price, gold demand at USAGOLD has picked up sharply following the election as investors eyes turned from the unknown of who would be Commander in Chief back to the mounting debt and deficit problems highlighted by the upcoming Fiscal Cliff. While the debate is already raging on whether to raise taxes or cut spending, and is likely to intensify, the feeling here is that it amounts to more talk than turkey. Even if the proposed $180bln in cuts are agreed upon, it would amount to nothing more than a minor slowing of our current debt contributions. Right now, the federal government borrows 46 cents of every dollar it spends. The cuts being discussed would only lower that to 41.5 cents of every dollar spent. The unknowns surrounding the Fiscal Cliff may have been partially responsible for Bernanke's decision to institute an expansion of QE3 on Wednesday. Now included will be $45 billion in direct Treasury purchases on a monthly basis. Gold didn't respond as positively to this news as it has in the past, largely because the continued implementation of these measures has now been tied to both the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate. The market sees this as resulting in potentially shorter-lived monetary injections, though we're not so sure. Projections on the unemployment rate don't suggest an improvement before 2015, which was already the date set for rate guidance. So while the initial reaction is that this my curb injections sooner than expected, it is equally possible the exact opposite could occur. Another interesting thing to put on your radar is that the Federal Reserve charter is due to expire this coming year. It might be interesting to see if any kind of debate is risen in the vein of Ron Paul as this approaches. 39 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.
Roundtable 33 minutes
Pre-election Discussion
(November 1, 2012 discussion) It is difficult not to fall into the trap of trying to predict what the gold price will do depending on the outcome of next week's election. The basic theory floating around is that if Obama wins, gold will rise, and if Romney wins, gold will fall. And while, from a short term perspective, such predictions may ultimately prove true, from a long term perspective, the outcome of the election may prove to have little, if any, impact on the gold market. The premise that gold will rise of Obama wins is simply a basic continuation of gold's performance over the past for years. The notion of gold going down if Romney wins is predicated on Romney's stated intentions of not re-appointing Ben Bernanke as head of the Federal Reserve. Such overtures suggest that a Romney presidency may not favor the easy monetary policies largely espoused by the Fed at this time....the same easy monetary policies that have helped fuel the bull market in gold. That said, however, our economy remains very dependent on these injections, and a removal would not be without severe consequences. It is, in essence, easier said than done. Moreover, most fiscal policy measures are borne in congress, and while the president does hold the power of veto, the actual impact of the president on the economy is less than is often credited. All told, there is an ongoing shift in the role of gold in international reserves. The Basel accord is set to move gold from a tier 3 asset to a tier 1 asset, a significant, though underreported, development that would allow countries to collateralize gold to 100% of its value. Such monetization of gold is of considerable significance, and is representative of a much more influential trend in the gold market than the US presidential election. 33 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.
Roundtable 33 minutes
QE3 - Europe's Unlimited Bond Purchases - Gold Breaks Sharply Higher
(September 13, 2012 discussion) QE3 is here! We're not sure its deserving of an exclamation point, but after much anticipation, the Federal Reserve announced yesterday a third round of asset purchases, comprising of open ended $40 billion per month purchases of mortgage backed securities and an extended rate guidance to 2015. Moreover, the Fed statement clarified that accommodations would not be removed even once the economy started to recover. The 'infinite' quality of this QE package sent gold racing, and the dollar turned sharply lower. The potential success of quantitative easing measures remains in question. Much of what is occurring in our economy is the macroeconomic result of an aging baby boomer population that is no longer earning peak income, or laying out peak expenditures. As debt levels become unfathomably large, one can't help but wonder if the Fed's doing more harm than good. Physical gold ownership is a critical portfolio component given this context. Central Bank behavior all over the world suggests such advice isn't restricted to individual investors. Across the pond, Europe has initiated its own version of QE, labeled as "unlimited periphery bond purchases" where they to have placed no cap on the amount of money they'll inject into their failing bond markets. Of course, the ECB has promised to 'sterilize' their purchases so as to avoid inflationary pressures, but it remains to be seen whether said 'sterilization' with be anything more than a big confusing word. The two catalysts worked to move gold out of its nearly year-long consolidation, with price now challenging the $1800 level. Also discussed is increasing instability in the Middle East, a re-visitation to the counter-party risk reality that is the futures market, and a brewing renewed banking crisis in Dubai. 27 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 29 minutes
Gold's Continued Consolidation - FED and ECB Disappoint- Fundamentals Pave Way for Breakout?
(August 2, 2012 discussion). Gold has continued to consolidate through the summer months, but the range of prices has narrowed. The result is a technical pattern resembling a triangle, also often referred to as a coil. Eventually, prices will break from this pattern. There have been numerous triangular patterns in the gold bull market thus far, and each time, the break has been in the direction of the dominant trend: Higher. Should we expect gold to do the same this time? The fundamental picture still largely favors gold. Both the Federal Reserve and ECB disappointed this week by not following through on expectations of announcing new rounds of economic stimulus (QE). Had either announced, gold would surely have broken higher. That said, the failure to make any significant move, especially by the ECB, has caused borrowing rates in both Spain and Italy to push higher. Europe continues to be presented with what looks increasingly to be an unsolvable problem. That said, the market is growing increasingly impatient with the 'all talk no walk' central bank policy, especially on the heels of Draghi's "Will do whatever it takes to save the Euro" comments from a week ago. The credibility of central bank rhetoric is rapidly deteriorating. What also merits consideration is that additional QE measures, while highly desired, may not ultimately have any positive impact on the economy. Such a failure could fatally fracture this already weakening central bank credibility. What kind of world would it be if no one trusted central banks to manage economic growth and contraction? Throw in the massive Federal debt in the United States against the backdrop of a slowing economy, and the outlook for gold remains quite favorable. Perhaps, this consolidation period is just like the one's before it, suggesting this is a buying opportunity running short on time. 27 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.

Roundtable 27 minutes
Another June - Another Greek Crisis - Spain's Bailout - QE case building in U.S.
(June 14, 2012 discussion). Another June, another Greek crisis. This marks the the third June in a row where the situation in Europe has escalated sufficiently to bring the union to a crossroads. Greek elections are this weekend, with the Syriza party gaining ground on the premise of 'no more austerity'. This comes on the heels of Hollande's socialist party victory in France just over a month ago. The disconnect between what governments are trying to do to stabilize the sovereign debt situation, and what the people of those countries are willing to accept, continues to widen, highlighted in these elections. Spain meanwhile received a 100 billion euro bailout last week to recapitalize its banking system, though most analysts feel the figure is far short of what Spain will ultimately need, especially if the situation escalates to the sovereign level. Once there, finding out where the money would come from remains an enormous challenge. While many think Germany should come to the rescue, their contributions aggregate to a sizable share of their economy already, and are becoming increasingly difficult to stomach moving forward. Meanwhile, here in the United States, a rash of bad economic numbers has many calling on the Fed for new QE measures. The currency flight over the past few months has driven yields in the U.S. so low though, that little could be accomplished, other than the likely bump in investor confidence, if further easing measures were implemented. Moreover, the political implications of such action (i.e. would the Fed look like they were supporting the Obama administration, or attempting to 'buy' the election by providing a bump to the economy) suggest an interesting road ahead for the Fed, and could diminish the likelihood of an imminent implementation of QE. 27 Minutes, with Jonathan Kosares, Peter Grant and George Cooper.
Roundtable 30 minutes
Fed Statement Just More of the Same - Europe Takes a Turn for the Worse - Gold's 8th Month of Consolidation - Paving Way for Breakout?
(April 26, 2012 discussion). The Federal Reserve held another meeting this week, and while all look to the Fed to gain any inkling of policy changes that might affect the markets, this Thursday offered very little in the way of actionable news.  The most productive highlight came in the question and answer session when Bernanke was asked point blank if the prospect of QE3 was closer than it was after the last meeting.  He responded by saying the Fed is ready and willing to step in if economic conditions should worsen and policy be required to assist the economy.  Both gold and stocks jumped after this answer, suggesting that most people do believe that at some point the economy has to worsen, prompting Fed action.  It seems that by holding QE in his pocket, Bernanke is not only supporting the stock market, he's putting a floor underneath the gold price.  Europe is in deterioration mode again, as citizens of countries under forced austerity are beginning to seek political change.  In France, for example, Sarkozy was defeated in the preliminary election by the socialist leaning candidate Hollande.  Similar political changeovers are taking place in Spain, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic.  This all sheds an interesting light on our own political sphere as we are now in the thick of an election year.  All the while, gold remains range bound, making this the longest consolidation period since the last significant gold consolidation from Feb, 2009 to Aug 2009.  As we all remember, after breaking out of the range set in 2009 gold went on to its greatest run yet, doubling in two years, while increasing almost $1000.  Did the Fed give gold the bump to make it out of this range?  Time will tell, but if gold explodes from this range like it did in 2009, the price levels it achieves over the next few years could be impressive.   30 minutes, with George Cooper, Peter Grant, and Jonathan Kosares
Roundtable 25 minutes
Gold's Bullish Sentiment Indicator - China Slowdown - Doorstep to Inflation?
(March 30, 2012 discussion). Recently, the bullish sentiment reading on gold fell to 10%, which, put another way, means that 90% of investors believe gold is headed lower. By comparison, when gold topped out at $1920, the bullish sentiment was above 90%. Many analysts look to extremes in sentiment as indicators for changes in market direction, and have been calling for such a drop in sentiment as a cue to a turning point in the gold price. It is interesting that this indicator coincides with a resurgent stock market. Recent stock market performance is not all its cracked up to be, however. If Apple is removed from the S&P 500, the index would be unchanged on the year. So if you are a stock owner, but did not own Apple stock, all the talk of a well-performing stock market would be lost on your portfolio. Fears of a slowdown in China have increased in the last week, as the Chinese stock market has turned lower. Discussed is what China might do in terms of monetary stimulus should this slowdown gain momentum. If China were to stimulate its economy, it would join the United States, the EU, Japan, and the UK, creating an international environment where all five of the largest economies of the world would simultaneously be operating with easy monetary policies. Talk of inflation here at home has also ramped up of late as gas prices are creeping toward all-time highs. If the Fed wants inflation, inflation it will have. Such an environment of international easy money, combined with domestic inflation, is a potentially explosive one for gold. 25 minutes, with George Cooper, Peter Grant, and Jonathan Kosares
Roundtable 25 minutes
Fed extends IR Policy to 2014, Targets Inflation, Fuels Gold's Best January since 1980
(February 10, 2012 discussion). Gold posted its best January since 1980 as the Federal Reserve announced an extension to its accommodative interest rate policy to the end of 2014. The end of 2014 will mark our sixth year of zero interest rate policy, placing us smack dab in the middle of our own 'lost decade'. The Fed is also now targeting core inflation rates of 2%. Targeting core rates of inflation is simply another way of saying 'currency devaluation', and carries with it substantial risk. If the Fed is unable to reign back in the mechanisms used to achieve its targets, it runs the risk of creating runaway inflation, especially in food and energy. Meanwhile, it was announced Thursday that Greece reached a new deal to secure another round of bailouts. Deeper austerity measures were agreed to, renewing protests and demonstrations throughout the country. (Post-production note: It appears even this latest deal for Greece is running into trouble, as even greater cuts were asked for after Greece agreed. So again, talk has returned to the risk of default). 25 minutes, with George Cooper, Peter Grant, and Jonathan Kosares
Roundtable 30 minutes
Year-In-Review: The Evolution of Counter Party Risk: Europe in Flux
(December 9, 2011 discussion). Its been another year of positive performance for the gold market, trading roughly 20% higher than where it began the year. Stocks, on the other hand, have been largely flat. Another year, another debt milestone, with the U.S. national debt crossing $15 trillion for the first time in history. Europe remains in flux, with yet another agreement coming forward, yet no true signs of action to give the market any reliable sense of direction. The result has been increased volatility within the range, both for gold and equities. The failure of MF Global is being largely downplayed in the media. Co-mingling investor funds with the firm's risky plays on credit default swaps has destroyed huge sums of private capital. Jon Corzine, in his testimony before the House Agricultural Committee, stated very simply when asked where client's funds went, "I don't know." As a major clearinghouse for commodity futures, MF Global's failure has put a significant dent in the perceived reliability of the futures market as a whole. The erosion of confidence in this arena suggests large swaths of investment capital may seek physical ownership to gain safer (absent of counter-party risk) exposure to the gold market. If this is indeed the trend, it won't take long for the broader market to realize just how little physical gold is actually available. 30 minutes, with George Cooper, Peter Grant, and Jonathan Kosares
Roundtable 30 minutes
The European Bail-Out, MF Global Bankruptcy, Market Euphoria/Panic
(November 1, 2011 discussion). European officials announced a "consensus" on solving their sovereign debt crisis, agreeing to leverage the existing ESFS 4x, bringing the lending power of the bailout facility to just over a trillion dollars. Market euphoria ensued, only to be scuttled shortly after as Greek Prime Minister Papandreou offered the Greek people an opportunity to vote on participation in the bailout through a referendum. Markets sold off sharply as the this was perceived to be a wrench in the whole deal. Now, the Greek referendum is being questioned as unconstitutional, and for now, it looks as though the existing bailout agreement will move forward. Volatility stemming from the uncertainty of the package has affected all markets, including gold. That said, gold now finds itself trading in the mid-$1700's, well off of its lows. In domestic news, MF Global has filed bankruptcy, citing losses on bets gone bad on European Sovereign debt. As the first major American failure linked to the sovereign debt problem in Europe, MF Global quietly represents the eighth largest bankruptcy in American history. While not "another Lehman", it is certainly newsworthy, and the general lack of concern within the market strikes a strong resemblance to the Bear Sterns failure in 2008. Also discussed are this week's FOMC meeting, the G20 meeting and unemployment reports due at the end of the week. With Peter Grant, George Cooper and Jonathan Kosares 30min.
Roundtable 21 minutes
Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: Operation Twist
(October 5, 2011 discussion) The sovereign debt crisis continues to escalate in Europe. Rumor has it that the funds contributed to the ESFS might be levered as much as eight times in an attempt to "go big enough" to calm jittery markets. While levering the fund has been dismissed as rumor, an inability to raise the necessary money from the member states suggests alternative strategies may not be effective. Such action will be reminiscent of US government and Federal Reserve policies in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008...policies that led to a 140% increase in the gold price in just over two years. Gold is now showing signs of consolidating after its recent correction, providing what appears to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially in light of undeniably strong fundamentals borne from a perpetuation of existing international monetary policy. 30min.
Roundtable 21 minutes
Gold Hits $1900 + ...... and Corrects. What's next?
(August 23, discussion) Gold's ascent over the past few weeks has been remarkable. Following the downgrade of US debt by S&P, gold covered the distance between $1600 and $1900 in less than three weeks. Talk of gold being in a bubble quickly resurfaced as gold surged, but very little supports such conclusions. Net global investment in gold remains less than 1% of total assets, compared to levels as high as 5% in the 1960's. Perceived safe haven currencies such as the Yen and the Swiss Franc are being forcibly suppressed, while all dollar and Euro remain under pressure. As Alan Greenspan said earlier this week, "Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency. And the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It's not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating." Also discussed is Hugo Chavez' effort to repatriate Venezuela's gold from the Bank of England, setting the stage for other countries to attempt the same, raising questions about availability if this trend gains momentum. Last week was also the 40th anniversary of Nixon closing the gold window.-- With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares. 21min.

Roundtable 23 minutes
Debt Ceiling "Resolution" EU Soveregn Debt Crisis
(August 2, discussion) -- Now that the debt ceiling debate is over, and the dust is settling, the market is beginning to get a picture of what, if anything, was accomplished, and can be expected moving forward. The $2 trillion in cuts over ten years amounts to a small dent in our annual deficit, suggesting that the U.S. will continue to increase its debt to GDP ratio over the coming decade. The cuts suggested will merely slow, not reverse, this trend. In the end, this debt deal is nothing more than a giant kick of the can down the road, and a short road at that. The hike to the debt ceiling looks to only buy about six months, so this issue is set to be revisited next year. The market has digested this "resolution" as such, and gold has responded sharply higher, rising $60 in two days. The DOW meanwhile has come under significant pressure, shedding over 800 points in a week. Things across the pond are not looking any better. The credit facility set up the ECB is insufficient at best, and contagion remains an enormous risk. Spreads on sovereign debt in Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland are at or near all time highs. As talks of dramatically expanding the credit facility heat up, we're left to wonder if its even possible for Europe to "go big enough" to calm market jitters. With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares.

Roundtable 28 minutes
Sovereign Debt Deja Vu Debt Ceiling
(May 25, discussion) -- As the sovereign debt crisis in Europe ramps up less than a year after first surfacing, one can't help but feel a sense of deja vu. The relative ineffectiveness of the bailout measures used by the European Central Bank over the last year is creating headwinds to a re-implementation of the same measures moving forward. Default for Greece is becoming a very real possibility, creating very real contagion risks for other European banks, the ECB, and even the US banking system. Meanwhile, the United States officially hit its debt ceiling, and is now presented with the implication of raising it yet again by this coming August. This has sparked a spirited political debate of what concessions might be made in government spending before approval of the hike will be granted. Such austerity measures seem practically meaningless as the Federal Reserve has all but guaranteed that any slowdown stemming from political tightening will be counterbalanced with monetary easing, thus making the prospect of future quantitative easing very real. All have combined to escalate gold demand to record levels, with some very prolific purchase of physical metal making headlines over the past few weeks. With Peter Grant, George Cooper, and Jonathan Kosares.
Roundtable 29 minutes
The Perfect Storm in Gold
(April 11th discussion) -- umerous geopolitical and financial factors have converged over the past several weeks, pushing gold to all time highs and silver to 31 year highs. The debate over fiscal responsibility has begun to heat up in Washington, coming on the heels of a near government shutdown over the past weekend. Given the political headwinds to implementing the difficult policies required to make any substantive impact on budget deficits, it remains unknown if any meaningful action will be taken, or if a continuation of existing monetary policies will prove more palatable. With a government stuck squarely between "a rock and a hard place", the dollar index has fallen precipitously to within 4% of its all time low. Simultaneously, instability in the Middle East and North Africa continues to place push the price of oil higher, placing upward pressure on all commodities. Peace in Libya is no closer than at the outset of its conflict, leaving some to worry unrest could continue to spread to other areas of the Middle East, namely Saudi Arabia. Complicating matters further is a reawakening of sovereign debt issues within the European Union. Portugal looks poised to accept a bailout, while the economies of Greece and Ireland have failed to improve, and the giants of Spain and France look increasingly exposed to the same fate. Meanwhile, inflation in the Euro zone has begun to escalate, prompting an increase in interest rates. Such increases are feared to scuttle the growth needed to carry the PIIGS nations out of their malaise. In all, these and many other factors are contributing to form a perfect storm in the metals markets.. Featuring Pete Grant, Jonathan Kosares and George Cooper.
Roundtable 21 minutes
Has Anything Really Changed? Trends to Follow in 2011
(Jan. 26th discussion) -- The World Economic Forum is set to meet this week in Davos, Switzerland to discuss the state of the global economy. A mantra of exuberance has already been noted, suggesting that a mere doubling of global credit by another 100 trillion over the next decade would fuel a global super cycle. This course of action, if taken, carries with it obvious implications. Continued fueling of credit bubbles will perpetuate and perhaps magnify the boom/bust cycles we've grown accustomed to over the past decade. It does, however, mark a noted return of market euphoria, which, coupled with a reduced risk of a sovereign debt default in Europe due to Chinese support in the credit markets, has eroded the risk premium in the gold price, and is perhaps linked to gold's recent pullback. However, in analyzing the technical picture, gold's pullback is quickly nearing vital support areas. The 200-day moving average for gold sits at $1285, with the last assault on the 200-day moving average taking place in mid-July 2010. Interestingly enough, that same pullback coincided with options expiration for the August gold contracts. Today, Wednesday January 26th, also is options expiration date for February contracts. This is significant because option expiration dates have often been associated with reversals in the gold price, as witnessed last July. Add to this the possibility of an enhanced inflation trade for the gold market, and this pullback looks to be an excellent buying opportunity. Featuring Pete Grant, Jonathan Kosares and George Cooper.
Roundtable 26 minutes
QE2 + G20 = Bright Future for Gold
(November 16th, 2010) -- The election results haven't changed anything fundamentally for gold, except perhaps tying up fiscal policy through bipartisan gridlock, leaving the blunt instrument of monetary policy as the primary focal point for the next couple years. The Fed announced a new $600 billion program of quantitative easing with a stimulative objective of boosting inflation through an increase in money supply and a devalued dollar. Members of the G20 are subsequently faced with the threat of inflation as greater inflows of hot money begin chasing higher yields than are available within the U.S. The dollar-depressive QE2 program not only erodes the U.S. credibility as an innocent party in the international currency manipulation debate, it also erodes the dollar's standing as a worthy reserve asset.
Roundtable 28 minutes
QE2 & 'ForeclosureGate'
(October 19th, 2010) -- As bonds, stocks and commodities markets are all currently rising together on the expectations of endless money via the Fed's open promise of QE2, the key question is "Which of these is the more sustainable market?" The bond market could be in for a tumble if the Fed delivers less than the market is expecting, but in the meanwhile, investors with surplus cash are chasing yield along any available avenue. With bond yields near zero, however, that avenue offers no headroom to run and will therefore likely be the first point of abandonment by investors regardless of the magnitude of intervention by the Fed. As a result of that seemingly foregone conclusion, and in light of the weakened economy providing an unfavorable backdrop for stock investments, large and small investors alike are increasingly channeling their funds toward hard assets -- commodities. Gold is benefiting not only from this, but additionally from the global currency war pulling down the value of many international currencies. Among those currencies, the U.S. dollar in particular is vulnerable to the uncertain undercurrents and inevitable need for a federal resolution of the mortgage crisis and the foreclosure quagmire growing within the real estate markets.


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